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Petrobras and the discovery 200 miles offfshore of the Tupi field with estimated reserves of 5-8 billion barrels of light crude oil. As Brazil is self sufficient in energy with its own ethanol industry helping substitute ethanol for oil at the pump, it can become a major exporter with this find. However even with Petrobras technology and expertise in offshore drilling its a challenge as the oil is 4.5 miles below the oceans surface, and involves drilling through 7000 feet of water and 17000 feet of sand rock and massive salt layer. Cost could approach $20 billion according to analysts with current inflation in oil drilling rig costs. It involves challenges like building floating liquefied natural gas plants. Gabrielli, the Petrobras CEO thinks Petrobras has the expertise to develop it on its own. If oil majors are given the chance to join in the development the investment terms will be ones that favor Brazil. Gabrielli pointed this out saying that Brazil had already incurred most of the risk in exploration offshore so the oil majors have far less risk and Brazil should invite them only on its own terms if needed. The Tupi field puts Brazil ahead of Canada in oil reserves and in the leagues of China and Nigeria, with new Brazilian reserves at 17.2 billion from the 12.2 billion barrels currently. Brazil has invested in refineries with 2 new refineries coming up in 2010 and 2014 to increase refining capacity by 40%. It is also investing to convert heavy crude oil into diesel and $8.6 billion to reduce sulfur at 11 refineries. The Tupi field will take about 7 years to develop. Similiarly the Kashgan field in the Caspian in Kazakhstan is also in difficult in this case icy and gases filled environment that will take years for a Eni led consortium to develop. When oil does come will the demand situation have changed with new conservation taking hold in the developed world and the cars in developing countries more like the Tata Nano at 54 miles per gallon consuming less gasoline? Even with increase in energy needs of developing countries, improved efficiency and new technology for conservation brought into developing countries could if not significantly reduce, at least moderate demand. To the point where prices drop from $100 a barrel to something more affordable to developing countries....

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Greece's problem says Carney, is that borrowed money simply financed the incomes of the large number of government employees- with one third of the workforce in the public sector- the unemployed and those on state pensions. It was not achieved by increasing productivity or increase in production. Nominal private sector labor costs went up by 62% in Greece from 2000 to 2008, when they increased by 15% in Germany. All this was done by using borrowed money after Greece joined the EU in 2001. And all this reckless borrowing was not visible to ordinary Greeks- worse it was being covered up till 2009 by the government till the IMF's Traa pointed this out. And Greeks still cannot come to terms with what happened.

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Gap stores have experienced steadily declining sales with a failure to keep up with fashion trends and earlier overexpansion. Gap plans to close a fourth of its stores. 175 store closings are planned, with 140 by 2016. Most of the stores closed are in less desirable mall locations. Gap will continue to operate its outlet stores.

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To correct misgivings in many quarters about Syrian refugees not finding a haven in Gulf states, this letter from the Cato Institute points out that the population of Syrian refugees living in the Gulf states including Saudi Arabia has gone up by 1.1 million by 2013 from the beginning of the civil war. He cites World Bank data showing 241,000 Syrians living in the Gulf states before the civil war. By 2013 that number is 1.4 million. For Saudi Arabia the figures are up from 111,000 to 1 million.

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Fruits such as breadfruit, monk fruit, baobab fruit and jackfruit could turn up at your supermarket. Some new food companies think it helps to be creative as people all over the world shift to healthier diets to reduce the risk of disease. Kale and Quinoa were not well known until now, jackfruit could be the next new thing. It is popular in tropical countries in Asia. The trick is education about the nutritional value of the new vegetable or fruit and how it can be used. One founder says once you get an idea going in people's minds it can be scaled up quickly in the supply chain. This is the way yogurt became popular in America.

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Spain's global retail chain Zara will close 1200 stores or 16% of its outlets worldwide, as it shifts to selling more online. Zara says it will close smaller stores or stores where sales can be shifted to online. Spain says it will spend 1 billion euros on digital investments over 3 years. Inditex the company running Zara stores is known for its quick design and sourcing process which is done close to its Spanish headquarters.

About 78% of Inditex stores are now open, and sales which were down by 51% in May are now down 34%. For Inditex  online has done well, up 50% for the quarter and up 95% in May over April.

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Baxter State, Park Adirondacks Park and other State Parks in the US. Adirondacks Park in upstate New York is huge 6 million acres with 3.4 million acres of private land and 100 small towns, 2.6 million acres of public land, 3000 lakes and 46 peaks over 4000 feet. It was set up as "forever wild" by the state constitution in 1892. Nearby is Maine's highest peak Mount Katahdin at 5300 feet in Maine Baxter State Park.

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Good advice on how to get good sleep at night and a good nights rest. Set a good sleep routine that is relaxing, avoid work in the bedroom, a shower at night helps, create visual separation between work thoughts and sleep time, keep bedroom cool dark and quiet. Do not look at the clock at night. No food in middle of the night, if you wake up read a relaxing book for a bit, and fall back to sleep again.

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Consumer spending went up by 1.1% in June with the rebound in spending. Fed chairman Powell had this in mind when he said the second half could be stronger than the first for the US economy.

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Britain to lead coalition efforts in Strait of Hormuz- in the 1950's this part of the world was still part of the British Empire. Britain was the dominant power in Iran in 1900 and was also dominant in Turkey for a period after the First War in 1918 in Turkey. With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire Britain and France assumed a stewardship role over what is now Israel, Iraq, Syria. Only after the rise of Ataturk in Turkey in the 1930's were there independence movements and anti-monarchial movements in the region. Ataturk was an avowed modernizer who Europeanized Turkey, that was not so with the anti-monarchial movements in Iraq, Syria, which led to a great deal of unheavals and the wars we know today as Iraq war, Afghan war, Iran war. In Iraq and Syria it was a form of Soviet Communist/ Socialist  style movements that took power, and in Iran it came in the form of a religious movement based on Shia Islam that by the 1990's clashed with the socialist movements in Iraq and Syria. Syria and Iraq disintegrated costing the US dearly in resources and men, and the Afghan wars hurt both the Soviets (Russia) and the US. The Iran war may be the last of these wars as the US and Europe, and Russian Europe, China, India and Japan, close this chapter in their interactions to a region that is impervious to the kind of modernization that started in 17th century Europe with the Renaissance, in 18th and 19th century Europe with the Scientific Revolution, and in 20th century Europe with the Industrial Revolution, that was fervently desired in Russia, Japan, China and India as these ideas spread over western and southern Asia like wild fire and were adopted as emancipating and with a sense of wonder by the Asian people as their own.  The world may soon decide it can do without Hormuz. China Japan, and India can secure alternative supplies of oil from US and Russia, and ramp up their production of renewable energy to make Hormuz redundant by 2030 and- history. Germany already has shown the way - getting only 6% of imports of energy from that region. ...

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NYT gives this perspective of Mikhail Zygar on the difficult economic situation in Russia in January 2026 before the Iran War. Putin considering bringing Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft, as negotiator for Russia with Ukraine, to replace Kirill Dimitriev. Dimitriev is seen in Russia as an insubstantial figure and with no real mandate, on the point of being dismissed by Putin. This would being new life to Ukraine negotiations to end the war. This report says if Russia was to end the war it would have to change the structure of power and that included bringing in a new administration to rebuild the economy, to replace prime minister Mikhail Mishustin. He says oil was sold to India in January for $22 per barrel about one third of the market price. The economy was getting severely affected by the war and the conditions it had created for inflation, oil revenues under sanctions, and by financial and human cost of the Ukraine war, a credit crunch and a wave of bankruptcies that were expected in January 2026. Some of this is confirmed by the perspective offered on the same day this article appeared in NYT by an NYT article from the Foreign Minister of Sweden, Maria Malmer Stenegard. Stengard says Swedish analysis shows central bank interest rates set at 21% in 2024 when interest rates were 10%, suggest inflation was much higher than the 5% official figures. The minister also points out that instead of growing by 13% as official figures reported Russian economy had declined by 8% over 2020 to 2024. British government estimate is that the losses from the Ukraine war are $450 billion. Official growth estimate for 2026 is 0.4%. even with higher oil prices. All this changed with the Iran war by February and the jump in oil prices and Putin has decided not to make the changes he thought necessary and wind up the war, considering that some of the objectives had been achieved and to avoid an economic downward spiral. It is now Putin's decision says this report.  In the past Putin has always given the economy and living standards the priority. Yet the elites in Russia says this report are concerned about the fragile nature of the economy as present oil prices may come down in a short period. ...

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Cars that will be seen at the Frankfurt auto show show the direction the industry is taking. Fuel saving technologies, hybrid engines for cars by BMW and Porsche better know for gas guzzling high performance engines. With environmental consciousness high in Europe the pressures to reduce auto emissions are building up in Germany and the rest of the EU. BMW will show concept car that has the higher ride of a sport utility and the hybrid engine running on gasoline and electricity. BMW is trying to change its image to become more in line with the environmental friendly that the German public requires. Mercedes Benz will show its new fuel saving technology and Prorsche will show a hybrid version of its Cayenne SUV. The other focus in Europe on coming up with smaller cars for sale in Asia and elsewhere, and for light driving in Europe. VW is coming up with a city car concept that cand be sold in Asia and also in Europe, it has a rear engine similiar to the VW Beetle and would come in different body styles that can be built for regional preferences but built off a single platform which is cost efficent to turn out....

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The EU plans to make 40% of its Green Tech within the EU by 2030. Strategic manufacturing plants will now take 9-12 months to get a permit instead of upto 7 years of waiting. This will speed up the manufacturing and also sourcing of materials for renewable energy within the EU. This means fewer imports from China.

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Macron's address to supporters in Paris following his win for a second term in office. Macron says the second term will not be one of continuity alone, it will be ambitious and take up new projects, be fairer to all segments of the people and "no one will be left by the wayside."

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This report in DW.com looks at planting trees pledge of COP26 Glasgow. It says in planting trees it should be done using trees native to the land and the region so that water guzzling trees are not planted and water is conserved. Also important is to protect forests and restore habitats. Grasslands and peatlands are also ways to soak up carbon.

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Ezra Klein of the NYT looks at proposed US, EU and Chinese regulatory framework for AI. He points out the problems with the EU- too specific, US- too broad, and China's - state oriented. Klein gives specific points that need to be considered carefully including setting up the regulatory agency like the FDA to strictly regulate AI systems and companies.

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Germany accelerates its shift to renewable energy with a goal of 80% of energy coming from renewables by 2030, up from 41% today. This is seen as the biggest comprehensive energy package in 2 decades by the Green Party, which is part of the coalition government. There is now a new urgency for renewable energy for the first time.

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The White House is expecting the half of the 2.2 million federal government workers who do not work out of their government offices to show up at offices and use them with "enhanced flexibilities." A GAO report shows that 17 out of 24 federal agency headquarters buildings in Washington D.C. had an utilization rate of 25%.

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Kylian Mbappe scores 2 goals with the first in the 15th minute that broke the net to put Paris St Germain 2-1 against Real Sociedad in San Sebastian. After a 2-0 win in Paris this puts them up 4-1 in aggregate. Kane and Muller score for Bayern Munich against Lazio for 3-0.

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Youth training is a critical part of Gareth Southgate's effort to build English soccer at the under 17 age level since 2011. This led to England having younger players who could learn from older players and setting up St. George's Park as a place where soccer players could practice together from all over England.

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The housing situation in Australia with underinvestment in housing and affordable housing for decades. Large rent increases fuel homelessness, housing costs eat up a large chunk of the household income. This situation is happening in the UK, Australia and the US. It also reflects how the price increases for housing rentals and the pandemic have hurt average people in these countries.

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Instead of 80% of Russsian missiles intercepted and 20% gettting through, destroying huge swaths of the industry and 50% of its electric grid, it is now possible for Ukraine with new Patriot systems to knock out mostly all of the incoming missiles and all drones. This happened last night at 3 am as missiles lit up the night sky over Kviv.

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WSJ looks at dangerous work loads and overwork, 100-125 hour work weeks with little or no chance for rest for younger workers in investment banking. Most of them sign up for the opportunity unaware of the toll it will take and bosses routinely expect such dangerous workloads ignoring bank policies that are not enforced by the banks management. 

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  US reaches agreement that would restore oil supplies and bring down oil prices. The supply chains may have to be reconstituted for replacing much of the 20% of the oil that flows through Hormuz if the US, Europe,China and India, Japan, rest of the world are to gain from this experience. The only way to understand the change of mind of the DJT US government and the Saudis/UAE/Qatar for bringing an end to the war without immediately fulfilling required nuclear conditions is from the Saudi point of view it has sought to avoid damage to its oil facilities from Iranian drone and missile attacks. From the US point of view it may see that the US + ramped up Venezuelan production by 2027-2028 with increased push for supplies in other parts of the world with better security than Hormuz, could make up for most of the loss in supply from Hormuz. For the remainder acceleration of the renewal energy in Europe and in China, India could reduce dependence on oil from Saudis/Iran.  US Energy Information Administration forecast is for oil prices currently $103 for Brent crude oil to stabilize at $89 at the end of 2026 and $79 in 2027. The year started in 2026 at $60 per barrel. The UAE oil agency ADNOC says it would take 4 months to get 80% of production back on stream and full flows by 1st quarter 2027. Rystad Energy estimates repair and restoration at oil facilities to cost $58 billion. The MAGA base which opposed wars by Bush and Obama in the region would then look at it this way. The billions that Obama poured into Iran for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program would not happen again, as the US would continue its sanctions till all nuclear materials are removed from Iran. Iran would stall in negotiations that are now put off with only a Memorandum to show for commitment of Iran- though an agreement would only be a piece of paper that Iran may not implement as the failed Obama agreement showed- but yet not have the billions of dollars to support its nuclear program. It would give the US, Israel, and the world 10-15 years in which to respond to another nuclear program by Iran. Iran will need $270 billion to repair the damage to industrial facilities, which shows the cost of the war for the Iranian people just to get a nuclear weapon is prohibitive, considering that the Iranian economy was already in trouble before the war. Inflation and the overall economy will be in difficult shape for many years. Public sentiment in Iran may change the future course of Iran away from the course currently pursued. The entire Middle East  region has not benefitted from its dependence on oil. For the rest of the world finding alternative sources of supply is the best way and EU, China, India should accelerate renewable technologies and goals for energy independence shortening the transition from fossil fuels. ...