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U.S. gasoline prices were below $2.06, adjusted for inflation, during 1986-2003, dropping to a low of $1.51 in 1998. U.S. gasoline prices at the pump dropped below $2.00 in Jan. 2015. Buyer behaviour responded quickly to the change for automobiles, with sport utility (SUV) sales rising to 34% market share in the U.S. in mid-Nov. 2014, according to Edmunds.com.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to extend Operation Twist beyond June to the rest of the year after the June 2012 FOMC meeting. By extending Operation Twist the Fed will buy $267 billion in long-term Treasury bonds and notes and sell short term Treasurys.

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Wolfgang Ischinger, former German ambassador to the U.S. 2001-2006 and president of the Munich Security Conference, says that one thing that would make a difference in the current state of German and European relations with the U.S. after NSA spying on chancellor Merkel, is for president Obama to show contrition. The continuing dynamics are important, as is evident in the deterioration in relations in 2003 following the American intervention in Iraq when not enough was done, says Ischinger. His view is that the proposals to limit diplomatic personnel of the U.S. in European countries, or putting on hold the Trans-Atlantic trade talks, are not good ideas as they do not help restore trust. Building on a report by the European parliament in 2001 on protections against intelligence operations would be a good start.

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Romney says in the first presidential debate he will not increase taxes on the middle class: "I will not reduce taxes paid by high income Americans. And I will not, under any circumstances, raise taxes on middle-income families. I will lower taxes on middle income families." How he would do this is through limiting or eliminating deductions and loopholes among several measures, with work done on this by his advisor Martin Feldstein, Reagan's economic advisor and a professor at Harvard University- Romney's Tax Plan can raise revenue, WSJ, 8/28/2012. Where the Democrats and Republicans differ is that economic growth generated by creating incentives for business to invest and hire also plays a part in generating the additional revenues as it did under Reagan's economic plan. Behavioural factors play a large part of this as much as the incentives and other steps, to create a climate of business confidence- search in Janvoo for the Group "Reagan memo of 1980 by Shultz, Friedman," for more on this....

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Oil supplies are not expected to go up with Mexicio and Russia's aging fields crimping production, non opec production barely budging with 1% increase this year according to IEA. Indonesia production down by half from its peak. Countries in the middle east like Iran are consuming more and have less available for export. And the Saudis plan to build huge chemical aluminium and other plants as well as cities in the desert, and increase electricity production. This will take up some of the oil production and make less available for export. Militant strikes have shut down over 25% of production of Nigeria's 2.5 million barrels a day of production repeatedly in the last few years. And Saudi Arabia has according to CERA only 2 million barrels a day of spare capacity or 2.3% that it can add, all of the safety cushion in one country according to Daniel Yergin. Yergin sees prices up to $150 barrel based on the supply constraints. The demand side is showing declining consumption in the USA but not by enough to compensate for growing consumption in China by 5% this year, and the increase in consumption in India, Russia, Brazil and other developing countries including Middle East. The reason for continuing consumption increases in the rest of the world is that price impact has been less severe in Europe because of the strong euro and oil priced in US dollars, and in China because Petrochina is required to put price caps so gasoline price increases are not that harsh. And India also cushions the price impact to some extent to protect consumers. And autos are just taking off in large numbers in China, Russia, India, Brazil and other countries. The drop in consumption in the USA has to be large enough to have an impact. And the shift to fuel efficient targets in the new fuel efficiency regulations in the USA are too modest and over a number of years to have any impact in the short term or in the next 1-3 years. In February US oil demand dropped to 19.7 million barrels a day, down 1 million barrels a day from the US average for 2007, but this insufficient conservation to impact price. Even though new cars are shifting to higher fuel efficient small cars the impact on the total fleet is gradual as cars on the road purchased in the last 5-10 years are still on the road. Even as the consumption falls in the US the offset is occurring in the other countries like China, Russia and India. Some of this is due to the euro and some to speculation but the supply constraints are real and demand momentum is still there in China, Middle east, Russia and India to keep offsetting savings elsewhere and keeping supplies tight. The euro increased in value by 2% while oil prices increased by 10% since the 1st week of April so there is more than the weakening dollar and some speculation to this surge, which may be why the normally cautious Yergin says the price rise to $150 is realistic and says, its not just that the genie is out of the bottle, a hundred genies are out of the bottle. That is to say for the immediate future of demand momentum and supply sluggishness which could run 6-24 months, to the Olympics and maybe a year or so from then. This ties in with the thinking behind the Goldman's estimate and CERA's estimate. ...

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U.S. airline stocks surged in 2014. Energy stocks crashed in the 4th quarter of 2014 losing over 30% of their value as oil inventories surged. Russia and Greece were the worst performing countries with losses over 30% for funds in these countries. India stock funds returns exceeded 30%. High yield bonds performed badly, with higher returns on investment grade assets. Apple continued growth following the introduction of the iPhone 6, with the stock value growing by 38% in 2014.

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Prof. Gorton and Prof. Metrick of the Yale School of Management review 16 scholarly studies and papers on the causes of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis in the current isue of the Journal of Economic Literature. Another article in the same journal reviews 21 books on the subject. Samuelson says the most cited causes- lax regulation and passive regulators, and the policy of home ownership that encourage the packaging and of securitization of mortgages to government sponsored agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac- are only the surface causes. If we are to explain how a whole society seemed to believe in the idea that somehow there was a way to maintain a rising tide continuously, with only small corrections over several decades, by the clever manipulation of monetary and fiscal policies; then one has to look to the hubris of economists who acted as if this was possible and the gullibility of business and a public that desperately wanted to believe as some have put it "that this time it was different," or that shrewd management of economic policy could actually bring about such a panacea. The abiding lesson is economic policies based on a better understanding of how modern industrial economies work are merely useful tools, no more no less, and there is no substitute for a good ethic, wise management and careful thinking on the part of the public, business and government, particularly for the people in leadership positions. ...

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Protests in Hannover, Germany, as U.S. president Obama visits the Hannover Trade Fair. Protesters oppose the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Treaty promoted by president Obama. A recent Bertelsmann Stiftung research institute poll shows larger rejection of the treaty in Germany than a mid-Feb. poll by German broadcaster ZDF showing about half of Germans opposed. Interviews with a dozen protesters show suspicion about large corporate interests, and fears that the talks are secretive, a sense that the interests of ordinary people would be neglected. Elections in the U.S. in 2016 have shown a surge in sentiment opposing trade agreements.

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Note this comment by the head of the U.S. National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration in the Bush Administration. NHTSA Administrator Jackie Glassman says the average mileage for the fleet today is 30 miles per gallon and raising the current standard of 27.5 mpg for an automakers passenger fleet by 2.5 mpg won't put much pressure on automakers. The Bush administration- and the prior Clinton administration- has not committed to making major improvements to the national mileage standards, with the current standards of 27.5 mpg not having changed since 1990! Glassman says the NHTSA starts with the manufacturers product plans and then sees whether it can get additional fuel savings with these plans. This suggests an NHTSA that is more follower to the auto industry rather than a leader in setting the standards that the auto industry then tries to achieve to reduce the U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Also note that it takes 2 years for things to change, as it will take months for rule changes, and 18 months have to be given to automakers to implement the new rules. By 2008 the fuel efficiency based on market competition and Toyota focussing on hybrids and higher fuel efficiency across the whole car lines, might well exceed any new standards that are watered down, especially if crude prices hold up. Lawsuits by attorney generals of different states and the Lugar-Obama bipartisan bill pushing the adminsitration to mandate higher standards are intended to put pressure on the Bush administration to come up with new higher standards. The failure of Democrats and Republicans in the Clinton and Bush years to raise standards and require the auto companies to use new technology to meet these standards with government assistance is one of the significant failures. This will affect the prospects for the U.S. economy in the years ahead....

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Fords plans to introduce new engines and transmissions for the Fiesta subcompact, the Mustang, the Super duty pickup and the F-150 pickup. With these engines and transmisssions Ford's goal is to take a leadership role in fuel economy among carmakers. In all Ford plans to introduce nine new or upgraded engines and six new transmissions in its cars and trucks, a significant step for Ford.

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Full Yield is a startup in Boston that is trying to help address the nation's obesity problem by introducing healthier foods and meals in cafeterias. It plans to introduce a line of Full Yield branded food made from fresh items and natural ingredients for sale in corporate cafeterias and prepared food sections of local supermarkets. It is based on a simple idea that if you eat healthier food you will be healthier. A study in the Jan-Feb issue of journal Health Affairs says 75% of the $2.5 trillion in health care spending deals with obesity, Type 2 diabetes, heart disease and cancer. And how much of this traceable to obesity and bad eating habits, smoking and lack of exercize? This study says most of the cases are preventable by changing these behaviours. Dr. Kenneth Horpe, chairman of the department of health policy and management at Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, shows that if trends continue U.S. annual health care costs related to obesity would reach $344 billion by 2018, which is 20% of total health care spending. In 2009 it accounts for 9%. Thorpe says if even the 1987 levels of obesity were reached it would free up enough money to cover the uninsured population today. For American companies the problem has grown to alarming proportions and yet no nationwide coordinated plan bringing together companies, government, universities, public interest organizations, and other groups exists in the U.S. The CEO of U.S. grocery chain Safeway, Steven Burd, says Safeway was spending $1 billion to cover health care insurance for workers by 2005, with costs rising 10% a year- this meant putting out twice in health care insurance than Safeway's earnings and hitting another $500 million by 2010. Between 2004-2009 the costs of insurance surged 31%, making this the fastest growing single corporate expense, according to Towers Perrin. This reduces incomes of workers as companies pass on part of the extra cost, and reduces the profits that can be put back in new investment for economic growth....

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Experts point out that Saudi oil price policies are set on a technocratic basis by a small group of advisors. An oil industry veteran Naimi, 79, leads this group of advisors. This means the new King Salman is likely to follow the same course as his predecessor King Abdullah. Gulf oil officials were expecting a drop to around $50 to $60 a barrel, the drop below $50 has surprised even the Saudis. NYT cites IMF estimates of a loss of oil revenues for Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Persian Gulf of about $300 billion in 2015. The Economist and WSJ reports say that for the long term shale oil production and advance in technologies are likely to play a lasting role in keeping oil prices low. At a time when Saudi society is changing, population growing, an older generation likely to transition to a younger generation in government, the cost of the social safety net and ample benefits will remain a concern for the Saudis for the long term.

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The CDU convention in Leipzig, Germany passed a compromise resolution that lays the ground for a EU country to voluntarily leave the euro zone and still maintain membership in the European Union. The resolution called for changes to the Lisbon Treaty to allow a euro zone member that is "unable or unwilling to permanently obey the rules connected to the common currency... to voluntarily... leave the euro zone without leaving the European Union." Merkel told delegates that Europe must change the EU treaty to allow for strong automatic sanctions for violations of the monetary union treaty. "We need to send a clear signal. We don't whine; we don't complain. We know instead that we have a job to do." On the issue of voluntary withdrawal from the eurozone, the earlier decision by Merkel and President Sarkozy of France- when prime minister Papandreou of Greece decided to put the issue of membership to a referendum- was to tell Greece that leaving the eurozone would mean leaving the European Union. This CDU resolution provides a basis for Greece to resolve its debt problems outside the euro currency, as experts suggest....

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U.S. Federal Reserve vice chairman, Janet Yellen and Laurence Meyer, a former Fed governor call for consideration of downside risks emerging from the eurozone crisis and from the approaching fiscal cliff of government spending cuts, as the Fed debates policies in July 2012.

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Pearlstein lists the names of insider investors for Facebook- Peter Theiel and Founders Fund, Jim Breyer and Accel Partners, Greylock Partners, Microsoft, Li-Ka-shing, Bono and Elevation Partners, Alisher Usmanov and DSL. For full disclosure he states Washington Post Co. chairman, Donald Graham, is on the board of Directors of Facebook. Venture capitalists are leveraging their position in Facebook to get new investors, share prices of companies involved are up. Goldman benefits by the $60 millon for placing client money in Facebook, a cut of 5% from any profit they earn, and the hundreds of millions of dollars from being a lead underwriter for Facebook's IPO. What all this does is create the conditions for a bubble for internet stocks similiar to the bubble in late 1990's, with insiders reaping most of the benefits and the public taking on most of the risk as the internet stock loses its dominant position with the entry of new technologies and competitors in the market or a change in consumer preferences. As was evident in the earlier bubble this is not hard to create. Some of these bubbles are in fact already taking place for Chinese internet stocks on US stock exchanges, with investigation staking place into accounting practices of some of these companies. With the financial electronic media and analysts doing their part in the hype and sell such a bubble is underway, just when the debt burdened US middle class can ill-afford any losses that may take place. ...

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The American consumer still spends money on bigger ticket items like luxury cars and iPads. The rich are largely shielded from this recession and one might forget that even with a 10% unemployment rate, says one economist, there are still 90% with jobs, about 75% confident of keeping them, and half with liquidity. So there is spending which is erratic. A sort of EKG type recovery in which it keeps changing all the time, with no consistent pattern. Consumers who are uncertain about the future and facing tight budgets save on toothpaste and basic consumer items, while other consumers continue to spend. A Consumer Reports survey shows consumers willing to spend on appliances and electronics. American Express conducted its survey of consumers and found consumers behind on their savings plans and making impulse purchases, or going outside their means to buy things. One analyst who follows the savings rate closely thinks consumers are spending because the stock market recovered after the 2008 crisis, and as the stock market falters consumers will start saving more. And Prof. Dan Ariely of Duke University, a behavioural economist, says that people who fear losing money in stock market fluctuations feel better spending their money, this way a least they have something to show for it. One reason apple's IPad has done so well is that consumers see it as a compromise purchase, they can give themselves a little something as a reward and still not have to buy a Mac which costs a lot more. And in the patterns of American consumer behaviour experts point to behaviour where consumers will save at Target by buying cheaper brands or buy at Dollar stores for things like paper towels and detergents, and then go out and spend on something pricey to reward themselves or have that feel good feeling. So you have this development that sales are up 9% this year at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minneapolis, USA's largest mall. People look at price tags and shop for deals, they cut spending in places and spend in other areas. ...