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This is what our energy wars, our climate change wars are about in summary. Europe has moved faster than the US, India and China in cutting fossil fuels use over 20 years 2005 to 2025. Europe going from 1525 trillion watt hours to 792- cutting use by half. The US from 2900 to  2553 trillion watt hours just 12%. And China...China tripled its use. This has come at a price as the costs of renewables push up electricity prices beyond what homes and industry can support. UK electricity prices 80% higher than US and half of UK energy users plan to ration its use 2025. Half of electricity costs in UK come from cost and delivery, other half of costs from subsidies of renewables and other. In Germany high electricity costs are hobbling industry and reducing economic growth. Lower electricity prices make the US more attractive than Germany as a place to invest. Another way to look at it- US and Europe cut fossil fuel use by about 1100 trillion watt hours and China increased its use by 4200 trillion watt hours or 4 times what the US and Europe cut in 2024 over 2005. Adding India, Brazil this would be 5-6 times what the US and Europe saved in 2024 over 2005. The "And "strategy of combining reduction in fossil with building renewable capacity is working out compared to dumping fossil in one shove and going all out renewable. There is also the question of equity. China and India argue equity means we should be allowed to use some fossil with renewable for 2.5 billion people's needs. The other side of equity is the US saying the same as "no fossil period" strategy puts the needs of the large part of the population for lower costs of energy  pushed aside as wealthy classes say it is OK. Even when the savings through cuts and sacrifices in US and EU are cut down, cut down by 5-6 fold increase in China, India, Brazil alone. In this kind of climate change war it makes sense not to go with labels such as climate change denial DJT vs China climate change affirming, when China is diluting US-EU climate change entire twenty year savings of 2005-2024 by a factor of 4, 1100 trillion watt hours wiped out by China's 4200 trillion watt hours added. And India, Brazil taking this to a factor of 6. This is why a lot of the discussion with self-righteous indignation becomes less purposeful. What is clear is that every action to cut cost of living in US and EU for large parts of the people is an effort in the right direction as it frees up resources for the fight against climate change, the sense that we are all in the same boat and in the same struggle. The fight against cost of living is part of the long run struggle against climate change. ...

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China follows Japan in the proportion of its elderly population at a similar juncture in its development. A paper from Japan's Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry pointed out that the proportion of child and elderly populations in China as of 2020 was similar to Japan's in 1990. China reached that inflection point faster with fertility rate falling from 2.74 to 1.28 in a 4 decade period, while Japan's fell from 1.75 to 1.29. That paper also shows India's proportion of child and elderly population in 2020 was similar to China's in 1980 when its economic boom took off. The overconcentration of supply chain in China is now being addressed by business in US and Europe after the pandemic showed its weakness. Prime minister Modi says this overconcentration has hurt even and balanced development worldwide.

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Rex Tillerson, U.S. Secretary of State takes a strong stand on North Korean missile testing and nuclear program in a visit to Seoul and Beijing. He said the U.S. would be forced to take pre-emptive action "if they elevate their threat of their weapons program"  to an unacceptable level. Continuing a policy of the Obama administration following missile tests by North Korea, the Trump administration has rejected any talks with North Korea. Tillerson said that "the policy of strategic patience has ended." It was also meant to signal U.S. intentions before Tillerson goes to Beijing from Seoul. President Trump commented on Twitter; "North Korea is behaving very badly. They have been "playing" the United States for years. China has done little to help." Because China sees North Korea as a bargaining chip with the U.S., Japan and South Korea, the situation has ended repeatedly in a impasse with the North Korean nuclear and missile program continuing during the Bush and Obama administrations. This has also meant that North Korea was unlikely to collapse on its own, with China pursuing a policy of using North Korea as part of its defense policies in the region, as pointed out by Sanger in this report. As the North's missile program continues the U.S., and with the North seeing the missile program as the only way to ensure the survival of the regime, the U.S. needed to come up with a new way to tackle the situation.   ...

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Disengagement along the India China border in Ladakh in the Pangong Tso area. China withdraws from the area and both sides dismantle the border buildup in the region. 

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XI Jinping tells China's National People's Congress that "western nations- including the US- have implemented all round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to development." Addressing the private sector Chamber of Commerce representatives which create significant number of jobs in China he said the Communist Party "has always regarded private enterprises and private entrepreneurs as our own people, and will always support them whenever they run into difficulties." Job creation in China is a challenge with high youth unemployment estimated at about 20%. The pandemic worsened the situation for state finances and for unemployment for migrants, the construction slowdown has added to this. The burden of trillions of dollars of local government debt increased during the pandemic with the central government lacking the resources to help, creating problems in the local economies.  This WSJ report says Xi's speech seeks to present his government's performance in the light of these challenges and future challenges as growth slows in China. The trading relationship with US-EU added to employment and income problems for China's economy and people, yet it had one weakness an over concentration in manufacturing in one country that European and US business placed in one country. The building of a  new supply chain that creates manufacturing in other countries to reduce this concentration, and the limits placed on access to western technologies by China to protect US-EU in competition, places new development challenges for China, which Xi alludes to. In the past China was able to use huge stimulus to tackle its debt by creating more growth that supported this debt creation. The pandemic may finally have reversed this as trillions of dollars of debt have built up, and construction of homes and infrastructure has reached a saturation point. This is the kind of situation that Japan entered in the 1990's after three decades of torrid growth and development rates. History is being repeated as China like Japan is entering a new phase of an aging society. In this sense the challenges China is facing are very different from that of Russia. Creating jobs is a perennial problem in India and China with their large populations and rising aspirations of people after centuries of underdevelopment, something that Europe including Russia does not face in anywhere to a similar degree. in this sense there is more in common between the EU and Russia even when they are in a war, than Russia and China, and China has more in common with India. The struggle in Europe as Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has pointed out in his History of Europe, is more about the balance of power which is the story of European history since the 1450's where no one country has been allowed to act with impunity in invading its neighbors and other countries formed a concerted group to prevent this. Be it France, Austria, Britain or Russia that acted seemingly with impunity. China has little to do with it or Europe's history. President Biden is right to say that the US only competes with China in the economic and business fields, and seeks to find common ground on climate change and food insecurity. The US has supported China throughout the twentieth century since the time of Woodrow Wilson in 1913, around the period when Tsinghua University was established with US help. The US helped China during the Japanese invasion and the Cold War period ended with renewed relations.  ...

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How the Chinese system of screening products is at its beginning stage so consumers aren't protected when companies use unsafe chemicals to cut costs. Corruption and lack of regulaory authorites and poor enforcement all add to the problem so consumers who care would try too shop at large supermarkets that have a reputation for screening out unsafe products.

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It took 25 years for the US to recover from the 1929 stock market disaster and the Great Depression. It took Japan 25 years to recover from the 1989 stock market collapse and the lost decades since. It is finally emerging from that period with a healthier economy and business structures. China faces a situation today of a struggling economy after years of excessively rapid growth that hurt the environment and climate and health. And the uncertainty that faced Japan after 1989 also faces China in 2024- growth is never linear over very long periods and has pull backs that could stretch for decades much too familiar for Japan. For India there are lessons to be learned from Japan's and China's experience. In environment not to risk polluting the environment as China experienced with breakneck unchecked growth, to be mindful of bringing up all sectors and parts of the population, and to manage growth so that the basic instability that resulted from excessive shift to China of manufacturing and deindustrialization in US that led to worsening trade and people to people relations between US and China is not repeated. ...

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The Biden Xi meeting was a momentous event, of great importance and significance setting the tone for next 3 decades of US- China relations. Here is how China's Xinhua agency covered it. Xi's speech emphasized the world and the US and China's need to work on climate change, inclusiveness for benefits to reach all parts of the people. Biden's efforts to support the labor movement are part of the US efforts in this direction, Xi's to bring the benefits to the regions of China and rural parts left behind in three decades of development. Openness and innovation Xi emphasized, on which the US is working to say openness but as China does to support its own solar and EV industries, and for innovation to protect its own technologies. In this way the US is saying we will work with you but without the illusions of the past in which free market thinking was an hindrance and support its own new technologies and industries as China is doing, and protecting its technologies from being transferred. ...

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This editorial says the climate change accords the U.S. reached with China in 2014 amount to little in the way of what China is required to do. China will be allowed to let its carbon emissions increase till 2030, two decades from now, and have the emissions decline afterward. This says the WSJ is what is expected to happen in China anyway because of demographic and urbanization trends. China will also have 20% of its energy come from non-coal polluting sources by 2030, something China plans to do anyway because of the high costs of pollution from coal plants. The U.S. commits to reducing its carbon emissions by 28% below 2005 levels by 2025, in place of the 17% currently set in 2009. This would increase costs of energy in the U.S., says WSJ, without any serious effort to cut emissions further in the developing countries.

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What will China look like in the future depends on Li Qiang as well as Xi Jinping. Li Qiang is a close associate of Xi Jinping, as his chief of staff in the early 2000's in Zhejiang province. At that time he interfaced with Chinese companies on investment and economic policies. This WSJ report looks at Li Qiang and how he could be a moderating influence on Xi and provide another perspective for business and economic policy in China. He is seen as having his own instincts on policy, believing in competition, yet deferring to president Xi on broader policy issues for the CCP and China. He replaces Li Keqiang who was sidelined by Mr. Xi as Xi formed his own team from his early days in the provincial governments in China. Some of these connections date back to the early days under Xi's father, Xi Zhongxun, who was one of the leaders in Yenan in the war against the Japanese and the encirclement efforts of the Nationalists against the Communist party local governments in the north during the 1930's. Xi's father was later one of the leaders in the 80's shaping the opening up of China to a market economy under premier Deng- a role not tackled by hardly any of China's leaders from the 1930's. In this sense both Xi's having taken on difficult roles in shaping China's recent history, with the younger Xi building his own team to chart a new path for China. ...

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China's military exercises for air and sea blockade of Taiwan raise the political risk of doing business in China says this report in WSJ. It raises the risk level for American corporations such as Apple and Boeing and others, that have large investments in China. The escalating tension and freeze in relations between the US and China is a watershed moment says the WSJ. Looking back years from now it may be the year following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine that tensions took on a level that would lead to acceleration of the building of new supply chains for the US and European Union in Asia that separate from China. The Trump years as president escalated trade tensions and tensions over origins of Covid. The war in Ukraine and China's siding with Russia and forming a "no limits" partnership with Russia have created serious rethinking of the entire relationship from supply chains to defense. US president Biden sees Ukraine's defense as a way of showing that an attack on one country by a neighbor in violation of international law is not acceptable to the US, and particularly in the context of China's relations with Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific countries. In this situation the US is taking the initiative in the war in Ukraine with Gen. Cavoli at US Headquarters in Europe assisting in the effort to repel Russian aggression, and also send a message to China on the importance the US sees in not allowing this kind of violation of international law. ...

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China's premier Wen is critical of China's large state owned banks for blocking reforms. In recent months there is growing sentiment against the large state owned banks because of the large profits made and the low interest on customer deposits for savers. The guaranteed spread between deposit and lending rates is about 3 percentage points giving the banks easy profits. China's largest banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank, show combined profits of $99 billion. These four banks and the Bank of Communications, China Development Bank, Postal Savings Bank, combined control 55% of all outstanding loans in China, and lend mostly to large state owned enterprises.

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The UN Biodiversity Conference will now be held in Montreal in December 2022 instead of being postponed to 2023 for its Kunming, China location. China has delayed large events including the Asian Games to be held in the country because of its zero Covid policy. China has faced repeated lockdowns in 2021 and 2022 even as the world was opening up after vaccination campaigns and milder symptoms for Omicron cases.

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Kenzaburo Oe in his writings reflected the anti-nuclear Japan of post World War II. That period also saw the emergence of China as a major economy. China's activity in the South China Sea, North Korea's ballistic missile program, created the situation where Japanese Defense Forces are now seen very differently as part of the US, India, Australia Quad alliance to ensure peace in the Asia-Pacific region.

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China has made an astonishing turn away from covid restrictions. Yet this comes after three years that hurt growth which will affect the recovery says this column in WSJ. China is looking for 5% growth in 2023. Problems in the way are a public affected by the lockdowns, a covid surge, housing that will take time to recover, and diversification by Foxconn and other companies away from China to India, Vietnam.

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Where did the numbers in the US president DJT's charts come from wjen shown in the Rose Garden on Liberation Day April 2 2025? The number for example 68% for China comes from a ratio- deficit by country divided by total imports to US.  The numerator reflects the US concern about trade deficits. It is exports minus imports for China in this instance. In 2024 China's exports were $438 billion to the US. It's imports were $143 billion. The difference is the surplus or deficit China has with the US. China's surplus is $295 billion. China's surplus is also America's deficit with China when turned around and seen from the viewpoint of America. The denominator reflects the US concern about how much it is importing from each country- this is how much it is not making inside America and which it has to get from another country. The more that it imports from another country the less it makes at home. If labor in the US gets too costly and is not cooperative to make well designed reliable products more factories close and are build outside in another country. This has consequences- serious consequences over time as it spreads to different industries. FOr the first time in history. A foreign nation makes practically everything and US acts only as a consuming nation- this means the workers jobs and incomes in the US are destroyed. It is often a sign of serious decline in the Nation. $295 billion/$438 billion is 67%. This is the China number shown on DJT's chart in the Rose Garden. The tariff and non tariff barriers and currency manipulation that China conducts in trade with US is measured in this way as an estimate, much higher than actual tariffs which is why US products don't get the treatment they deserve in China's market.   ...

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Little steps towards ensuring citizens right to information in China. The Government and Communist Party still maintain control over "sensitive information" however.