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When shortages of wheat following the war in Ukraine are causing a crisis in some countries such as Egypt and Africa, there are other unusual changes  as emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian Real and the Chilean Peso, South African Rand are increasing in value. Even with the strengthening of the US dollar the supply chain disruptions are benefiting exporters of soyabeans such as Brazil and Argentina, and copper such as Chile with strengthening of their currencies. The Brazilian Real has strengthened by 13%. The WSJ calls it the sharpest commodities rally in modern trading history. One analyst says this is unusual how emerging market currencies could rally in the first quarter of 2022 with war in Ukraine, supply chain disruption, strengthening dollar reaching almost parity with the euro.  Today this is a positive sign for the Free World in Latin America. Currencies weakening are ones in countries exposed to a sharply slowing Chinese economy and rising energy costs such as Thai Baht and South Korean Won.  Brazil's central bank is also increasing its lending rate to the highest level in 5 years. Other American allies in Eastern Europe such as Poland which has taken in 3 million Ukraine refugees are also seeing a strengthening currency in this new situation. The National Bank of Poland increased its key lending rate by three quarters of a point to 5.25% which has attracted investors to the Polish currency the Zloty. ...

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Jenny Strasbourg of the WSJ provides this much needed report from London about the courageous decision by AstraZeneca and Oxford University to give vaccines away at no profit to the whole world, to billions of people in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Without this brave decision by a British company and a British University the world would be a lot poorer, more variants could have happened, making us realize the great contribution Britain has made and how indispensable it is to the planet. Add to this the effort of Indian companies including Serum Institute that provided the manufacturing facilities and capabilities for making most of the British vaccine. AstraZeneca delivered 2.3 billion doses of the vaccine globally as of mid-December, according to the company. The International Monetary Fund estimates that low and middle income countries received 3.25 billion vaccines as of Dec. 11, About half of this or 1.6 billion doses were Astra Zeneca shots. This is a bigger share than any other vaccine by far and a life saver to the world. AstraZeneca stepped up early in a true to the best ideals in Britain to meet the needs of the world-  aiming to deliver 3 billion doses in 2022 and sell them at no profit as long as the pandemic continues. As the shot does not need cold storage it is ideal for India and other Asia, Africa and Latin America. "We are all very proud throughout the company of the impact we have had," says AstrZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot. By far the biggest manufacturing was done at Serum Institute of India which supplied 1.3 billion doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine to 70 countries. Mr. Modi pushed forward the export of vaccine made in India to the world from the beginning in the same spirit of cooperation and the best ideals that Britain was living upto. Serum Institute can produce as much as 250 million doses of vaccine a month making it possible for India to tackle the vaccination population of 1.3 billion people.   None of this could have happened without Oxford University and AstraZeneca and Indian companies with Mr. Modi's active support living up to the best ideals of Britain and India for the world. "When you add up the benefits to humanity, I think you'll find the vaccine holds up pretty well in terms of the ill health it has prevented, and the deaths it has prevented," says John Bell, a senior Oxford academic who in 2020 guided the University through its vaccine-partnership talks with Astra Zeneca. Because in the real world AstraZeneca shot has held up so well it is also a choice for booster shots. ...

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The Economist magazine points out that even without the one-child policy birth rates would have declined in China because of rising participation of women in the work force, education, delayed marraige, and the high cost of education and housing for more children. As China pursues a two child policy starting in 2015, many of the same factors are at work and many women are seen as unlikely to have two children. The Economist says the right policy would have been to scrap this policy altogether. This may actually happen as China sees the social and economic factors behind the falling birthrate continuing to operate limiting the size of families, and creating problems of rapidly aging society as in Japan. Latin America provides strong evidence to support the Economist magazine's point because of the falling birthrates in Brazil and Mexico for social and economic reasons.

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Krugman points out that the Obama administration has not been forthright in addressing critics of the Trans Pacific Trade Pact (TPP). He says the administration has simply talked about the benefits of free trade which finds general support, but not addressed specific issues about the pact, worker protections, the issue of access to drugs in developing countries of Latin America and Asia if intellectual property rights are strictly enforced, keeping U.S. financial industry regulations in place, and other issues raised by previous pacts.

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Alarge number of illegal immigrants are Latinos from Latin American countries, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela and a host of other Latin American countries. Getting an opportunity to live normal lives is what they are after. This is resulting in street protests and public campaigns for the Obama administration to carry out its pledge to help them get legalized status with new legislation.

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Instagram pictures from the Guardian on the cafe culture scene in Buenos Aires, capital of Argentina. Buenos Aires is unique in Latin America in the way the open air street cafes shape urban lifestyles and living. Some of it is borrowed from its Italian heritage, but the "ambiente" is unique to Argentina and the Porteno culture of the capital city.

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Michael Shear says president Biden is listening to his head about the US Border with Mexico- that he would close the US Border if the bipartisan bill is passed in the US Congress, the same day that he signs it to become law. The new bill agreed to in negotiations between Senator Graham and other Republican Senators and the White House ends current parole and asylum policy  that have led to chaos at the border. Shear who has covered presidents for 30 years shows that president Biden held the view that he was elected to provide a human face to the crisis at the border from international migration and close private prisons and poor treatment of children. He listened to both sides of his party during 2021 and 2022 after becoming increasingly aware that something was wrong and by Jan 2023 was convinced that tough action was needed at the border to deport Haitians and other people from central America smuggled northward with 13 flights a day to Haiti to deport illegal migrants.  He made his first major immigration speech at that time. The problem was that there was a major upheaval in Venezuela adding to the tide of illegal migrants as Venezuela sent millions to all countries in Latin America and north to the US, an international crisis playing out in Colombia and other neighbors for the last 10 years. When Lopez Obrador of Mexico closed his own migrant deportations Biden sent Blinken to Mexico with Homeland Security minister Mayorkas, and after discussions Obrador resumed the deportations. Trains going north in Mexico had conductors who were bribed to slow down to take on migrants. This was stopped and all trains going north were stopped at Eagle Pass in December 2023. Republican governors Abbott of Texas and DeSantis of Florida have sent busloads or flights of these migrants to New York and other cities in the US showing that the entire system of migrant handling was breaking down even as president Biden was convinced by his own advisers including Jake Sullivan that the border required tough action. The president increased planned legal migration to lower illegal migration from Nicaragua and rest of Latin America. By January 2024 Biden was convinced the only solution was closing the US Border immediately after the bipartisan solution. Lindsay Graham senior Republican Senator agreed with Biden with one problem- the Republicans in US House of Representatives did not think it right to work with president Biden to settle the problem.  ...

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Peter Hotex of Baylor Medicine in the US is a pioneer and leader in getting low cost traditional vaccines to billions in Africa, Asia and Latin America.  Here Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine Tropical School is interviewed in The Hindu. He talks about how the new mRNA vaccines are "shiny toys" pushed forward in the US in 2020 under innovation drives, and that the vaccines made by traditional methods are just as effective and provide lasting protection. Without vaccinating the entire world population including the billions of people living in Africa, Asia and Latin America, there will be no end in sight for the pandemic, he says, and the best way to do this is through vaccines made by traditional methods, methods used by Bharat Biotech for Covaxin and Biological E for its vaccine. He said mRNA is a brand new technology  and "it will take years to scale it up to make 9 billion doses" of vaccine for poor countries. Baylor has developed the vaccine technology using traditional methods such as yeast fermentation expression technology used for Recombiannt Hepatitis-B vaccine. Its been around for 40 years. Baylor will transfer the technology to Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, all over the world. He says in terms of virus neutralizing anti-body immune responses it is as effective as the mRNA vaccines. Hotez is critical of some pharma companies- "the rest of them want to bicker about patents. we're not going to go down that direction." Baylor is providing its technology for manufacture to companies to fill the need in poor countries, without patent protection or quibbling about legal things such as indemnities, says Hotez. Hotez also thing recombinant protein technologies vaccine with its traditional approach could also overcome vaccine hesitancy, a key factor for unvaccinated in Europe and US which have stuck to mRNA vaccines. The newer technology behind mRNA could make parents hesitate to vaccinate their children with these technologies, and also be a part of the mental attitude of unvaccinated adults having hesitancy.   ...

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The G20 declaration from Indonesia says that it "is essential to uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability." It called the threat of use of nuclear weapons "inadmissable." It said "most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine." Overall this was a major step forward with meetings between Biden and Xi, Trudeau and Xi of China, and discussions that led to Macron of France announcing his intention to visit China to get China to mediate for peace in Ukraine. It sets the path forward after Covid pandemic for peaceful cooperation in places other than Ukraine and efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to a close. The midterms in the US Congress also set the stage for Mr. Biden to offer a stable US participation after the volatile Trump years in peaceful competition with China, and growth in India, Africa, and other parts of Asia and Latin America.

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Russia has 600 billion dollars in reserves and with oil prices above $100, with the Ukraine conflict lifting oil prices for Russian oil exports, there is little that the US and Europe have done to prepare for this situation. The Merkel years were essentially wasted in building a trade based relationship on cheap Russian gas supplies, and the wasted resources under Bush and Obama in two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan only distracted the US from the major issues relating to China and Europe that it now faces. 

The need is for a new overall structure to be built- for social structure supporting all aspects of infrastructure, and stronger supply chains with local manufacturing. And international structures that include India and other nations of Asia and Latin America, Africa, that would be a framework for the future- a broader framework for peaceful relations.

 

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Consider the number 76%. That is how many of the population of Ghana that are at risk of drinking contaminated water. Today March 22 is World Water Day. Ghana is one of Africa's better developed regions, which suggests that much of Africa is also at 76%, and it may also be true for much of Asia outside of China and now India with PM Modi's Jal Jeevan Mission, and for Latin America. Nothing could be more vital than water and it shows how little is known outside India of Jal Jeevan and what it does for 1.4 billion people, that it does not get mentioned in UNESCO's report. Behind this is the will and tenacity and a belief that it can be done that clean tap water can reach every household in India once resources are set aside to do it and it is executed on time.

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Republicans in Congress led by Speaker Johnson and Senator Lindsay Graham insist that a reform of the asylum and parole system for the US border is a must before an appropriations bill for the government to aid Ukraine and Israel, Gaza humanitarian aid can be passed. At a meeting at the White House Speaker Johnson came to an agreement on immigration reform of the asylum and parole system. A large number of people from Venezuela were admitted to the US in 2023 as the US has no agreement with Venezuela for return of people coming from that country. 2023 migrant entry could surpass 1 million as a result of this influx from Venezuela. This is a huge problem as 7.7 million people have left Venezuela of which 6.5 million are in Latin America, leading to the effort to cross the US border. About 286,000 Venezuelans crossed the border in 2023 by one estimate.

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What does a 5 day Joe Biden trip with landmark decisions on Asia Economic Corridor to Europe, discussions with G20 leaders at the New Delhi G20 Summit, and a new strategic partnership agreement with Vietnam signed by Biden in Hanoi, say about the president's sharp mind and healthy lifestyle at age 80 years? Biden was born November 20, 1942. He also shook hands with over 500 graduates at the graduation ceremony of the Air Force Academy. Katie Rogers who was with the president during his visit to New Delhi and Hanoi says this says a lot about the president's energy and stamina. In New Delhi he held informal discussions with 30 world leaders in a Summit that lays out a new path for future generations of the world's leading 20 countries and for Africa, Asia, Latin America, as well as Europe and the US.

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After recovering from the eurozone financial crisis Spain is recovering with low inflation of 1.8%, and growth of 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and unemployment at 11.2%. Even with high unemployment prime minister Pedro Sanchez of Spain sees new immigrant workers aiding higher growth and supporting pensions- Spain's tourism growth also supports this. “The contribution of migrant workers to our economy is fundamental, as is the sustainability of our social security system and pensions.” This makes Spain one of the only countries to continue supporting legal migration to the country- 250,000 are needed both in high skilled jobs in hospitality and construction, and "invisible" jobs in agriculture and other places. 1 million migrants will arrive each year till 2028. Spain will also give legal stats to 500,000 undocumented migrants mostly from Latin America including Venezuela's middle class. ...

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China's rapidly aging population is leading to a new problem of rapidly increasing rural suicides. With urbanization about half of the people over 60 have no adult children living with them and 10% live alone. With meagre savings there are more suicides in isolated communities. 

Over two decades the number of people over 65 has risen from 7% of the population to 12%. The one-child policy is only partly to blame. A rapid drop in births as seen in Latin America was also taking place in China with urbanization and modernization.

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India produces 60% of the world's vaccines. India's contribution in vaccines is significant as it brings low cost vaccines to countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. India itself has children that in total equal the children in 20 to 30 smaller countries. Prime minister Modi is working actively with GAVI the Global Vaccines Alliance for vaccination of India's children. Mission Indradhanush was one of the first programmes of his administration, intended to vaccinate all of India's children even in the remote areas. A new program was agreed to between India and GAVI for the next five years at the Global Vaccine Summit in the UK opened by prime minister Boris Johnson of the UK on June 4.

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 Harris's role for the Border was limited to telling Central American migrants to stay home. Much of the migration was a result of wars started in the Reagan years in Central American states of Nicaragua and San Salvador. This destabilized the region and led to gangs taking over parts of the country in San Salvador and entrenching Castro style regime in Nicaragua, leading to outward migration of young people. As this report points out Harris was supposed to take on decades of such misguided policies in Central America in a few months. A drought hit agricultural coffee regions of Guatemala increasing migration. Her role instead was to ensure several wins. Win No.1 to generate stability setting up the peaceful transfer of power in Guatemala, singling out corrupt regimes. Win No. 2 to generate jobs. US AID and IFDC loans were increased, foreign investment attracted to generate 250,000 jobs. Win No. 3 the increased stability led to gradually declining migration from Central America. What replaced it was Venezuela. And that is a repeat story of Reagan style wars in Central America. Under the Trump Administration the US did not take up the Monroe Doctrine and act directly to support a stable fairly elected government in Venezuela, an obvious solution. Instead going half way- destabilizing the government but then left it on its own. The result about a third of the population leaving the country in these years to Colombia and other parts of Latin America in a immense humanitarian tragedy.  In 2023 Venezuelans not Guatemalans entered at the US Border in large numbers, most of them middle class families that left Venezuela after hyperinflation and mismanagement of the economy. Realizing the danger by January 2024 Biden negotiated with Senate Minority Leader McConnell and his Republican representative Senator Lankford to pass legislation in the Senate closing the Border. All that was needed was the House to act and 30 years of Border problem would be solved.This was blocked in the House by new Speaker Mike Johnson on advice from former president Trump who chose to use the issue in the 2024 election. Biden then used his executive powers to close the Border leading to lower numbers of migrants under Biden by July 2024 than under Trump. Migration Border Czar was never a term used by Democrats in the Obama and Biden years. Biden who also served in a role given migration as one of the issues to handle under Obama, had this as only one of his assignments. Biden played more important roles in foreign policy with his experience as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for decades. Border policy was made by president Obama and his advisers. The same is true of Harris, Border policy being done by president Biden and his advisers. Similar to Biden's role as VP Harris was given assignment to cover foreign policy and was the US representative at 3 Munich Security Conferences in 2021-2024 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz of Germany said of Harris last week that he had full confidence in Harris as both competent and experienced. ...

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Tim Kaine tells the audience at the Democratic National Convention that Hillary Clinton was in Spanish "lista" which means ready, the biggest compliment he said in Latin American life from his days in Honduras. He used Spanish frequently during his speech at the convention.  Kaine wins good marks for his knowledge of Spanish. Other politicians have used Spanish in an awkward way, failing to sound authentic, including president George W. Bush and Mayor De Blasio of New York.

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Lenovo reorganization on geographical lines with divisions for China; North America; Europe, Middle East, and Africa; Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Former Acer executive Lanci will assume charge of the EMEA region. Lenovo is looking for growth in overseas markets after consolidating its position in the Chinese market.

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Lenovo's efforts to increase sales in India and Brazil. Lenovo is the largest PC company in India with 15.8% market share in the first quarter of 2012. It has only 3.6% market share in Brazil and is planning to increase its market share in the Brazilian market. Its market share in China is 30%. Slowing sales in China is increasing the focus on growth in Latin America. Lenovo's head of Asia-Pacific and Latin America, Milko van Duijl says Lenovo will have to build a manufacturing presence in Brazil to be successful there. Lenovo is now the second largest in PC sales worldwide after H-P.

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Plans of the incoming administration of president Lopez Obrador to increase renewable energy from wind, solar and other sources, in Mexico. Mexico's potential is for 8 times the current levels for wind energy and 75 times current levels for solar. Solar energy has not received much attention as Mexico increased reliance on coal and oil for energy. Mexico's supply of renewable energy is only 25% of total installed power capacity compared to 50% for other countries in Latin America.

The Obrador administration plans to cut Mexico's emissions by 6.8% a year. Solar energy in particular has high potential in Mexico.

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Affordability should be a major factor in figuring out what is the best place to retire. Climate gets Arizona and Florida the top two spots. Yet considering today's higher cost of living and smaller retirement savings in the U.S., Britain, and European countries, and the higher cost of living in India, China, and other Asian, African, and Latin american countries, affordability should play a much larger role so that savings stretch out and one can afford a better standard of living, more travel and room for better choices in food and other things.  Bankrate for instance gives 40% importance to affordability in its retirement assessment of locations. Climate gets only 15% in this assessment of location. Places which are friendlier, with which you are familiar ar attractive for other reasons. Bankrate gives Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri top ratings in this commonsense approach.  Also important after affordability, are access to healthcare, weather, culture and crime. Bankrate analysis gives affordability 40%, wellness and healthcare 25%, culture 15% weather 15%, and crime 15%. Access to healthcare is a factor that is also included in Affordability as the premium in Florida for Medicare Supplement, is $286  month vs $90 a month in Nebraska. Using a similar approach places in India, China, other African, Asian and Latin American countries countries that are in high demand and have rising cost of living may not be the best places to retire. Using Affordability, wellness and healthcare, culture, and friendly atmosphere and familiarity with having lived there for a time, may be the best criteria with less importance to weather. A better standard of living and access to better things in life with one's dollars or rupees or whatever currency one uses stretch is important.   ...

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Anti Immigration sentiment is not new - it has just changed racial stereotypes from arguing against southern and eastern Europeans and barring Asians for "quality" in 1890-1970 to today's heated debates about Latin American nationalities.  Pew Research ( and the adjoining MPI) show highly relevant US Immigration history. Pew Research shows the foreign born share of the American population is at 13.8 percent. It reached 14.8% percent by 1890,  brought down in the interwar period by 1970 to 5 percent. It has gone back up- the wave of immigration blocked from successive Acts keeping out Chinese (1882), Japanese (1924) and all Asians(1924) has changed to include Asian migration under policies of John F. Kennedy. Pew Research shows in 2022  10.6 million immigrants living in the US were born in Mexico, making up 23% of all immigrants. This is 3.2% of the US population of 335 million in 2024 according to the Census Bureau. The promise of president Harris to sign the legislation negotiated with Republicans in Congress (Senator Lankford) in March to close the Border would remove this distraction from cost of living, housing, and climate challenges. ...

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Millets are small seeded grass grown since ancient times in India and Africa that have the advantage during climate change of being resilient to drought, adverse weather patterns, require less water, and provide high nutritional value. In India known as bajri and ragi, in Sri Lanka as Kurakkan, and in America as finger millet, these ancient grains similar to ones in Eastern Europe that also lost popularity, were during the Industrial Revolution replaced by wheat and rice over most of the planet. The return of hope with a path for climate change action, a path out of inflation, also includes a path to better health through a transformation in food habits and in agriculture for Europe, the US, Asia, Africa and Latin America. Here Lyrarc brings to readers the UN Exhibition at the delegates entrance in New York Feb 15-17 that showcased millets. Dr.  Arun Nagpal says we often feel that healthy products involve a compromise in taste- "However millet products carefully crafted and combined with other ingredients can bring taste and value to almost every world cuisine today. From flours to breads, cookies to pizzas, pastas, cakes, breakfast cereals, smoothies and so on." He emphasizes that millets don't have to be forced into our diets but can easily be integrated into an existing style or pattern across ages and cultures, across cuisines and nations, and across the dietary preferences. ...