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New restrictions were placed on housing buyers in Beijing and Shanghai, in an effort to cool housing prices. Beijing municipal government now allows unmarried persons to buy only one home, increases the minimum down payment on a second home, and puts a 20% capital gains tax on sellers of homes. In Shanghai a similiar tax was placed. The tax replaces a 1-2% tax on housing sales. A government survey shows housing prices up 3.1% in Feb 2013. The central government is preparing a national property registration system by the end of 2014. This will make it possible to place annual taxes on residential property.

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Goldman's final superspike phase idea for oil prices and the trend to anywhere from $150 to $200. The duration and magnitude of this phase remain uncertain. other analysts support this including CERA and Yergin who are normally cautious. See the WSJ link to this on the facts, and the thinking behind this, and why Yergin also agrees in WSJ 5/7/08. Note that the term final spike is used because at some point in the next 6-24 months the slowdown will be global, and the bite into worldwide oil and commodities in general consumption becomes significant. BRIC's countries will see themselves overextended at some point in the next 6-24 months, just when the bite into US consumption becomes significant and really painful which it is not at this point, and with that prices should come down, and some of the imbalances get corrected. "The core of our super spike view is that the lack of adequate supply growth and price insulated non-OECD demand growth is leading to a sharp spike in oil prices," says the Goldman Report of May 6, 2008. This could lead to a sharp correction in demand as a result of the spike in oil prices. Deutsche Bank's Sieminski also said in a April 25 report that there is a huge risk prices could go up perhaps $200, before demand is collapsing when ordinary people can no longer afford to burn energy the way they are doing now. The Institue of Supply Management's index of USA non-manufacturing business, service industries making up a large part of the economy, shows a first increase since December 2007, according to a Bloomberg, May 6 report, and this suggests increasing energy use. ...

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The U.S. Agriculture Department lowered its forecast of corn yield per acre from 166 busherls per acre to 123.4 after a severe drought in the U.S. The projected corn harvest is expected to come in at 10.8 billion bushels, 13% smaller than the 12.4 billion bushels in 2011. The USDA forecast for corn price in August 2012 was raised at the upper end to $8.90 per bushel, up 39% from a month ago.

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P&G reports higher sales revenue by 6%  for the fourth quarter of 2021. Pricing on average for P&G cleaning and consumer products rose by 3% in the fourth quarter 2021. Soaring prices for raw materials. labor and transportation with supply chain difficulties were offset with the 3% increase in the last quarter of 2021. Yet volume increased by 3% as more cleaning products were used during the pandemic. P&G finance chief Schulten says the buyers are focused on clean home and health and hygiene categories during the pandemic.

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Macron says about the ban of under 15's by social  media platforms-  the emotions of children and teenagers should not be "for sale or manipulated by American platforms and Chinese algorithms." The bad effects  on all adolescents of social media, especially on girls is seen in mental health issues for teenagers and the lack of focus for education in schools. It is a big price to pay for all countries to ruin the prospects in life of a new generation of children who are growing up in ways that no previous generation of children in the history of humanity was exposed to. This is no time for dangerous experiments with our children. It is an interesting comment on today that it is lobbyists (and donations) for platforms that are the problem. And that these lobbyists are from what is called Far Right, Right,  Left, Far Left, it makes no difference they all get paid for work, which shows that such labels have little meaning today- looking for common sense and what is right for (children's) health and education is the best approach not falling in line with Far Right, Right,  Far Left, Left, or Moderate or some such label or a Culture War label that is essentially meaningless when it comes to common sense. Good common sense, that much is sufficient. Many other important issues we face require the same approach. ...

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Steep decline in home prices in China's housing market. Middleclass home buyers are upset that they paid higher prices last year.

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The Guardian looks at food poverty in the UK in 2022. About 800,000 children living in poverty in the UK do not qualify for free school meals. The rise in the price cap for electricity and gas this winter to 3549 pounds for the year from October means many homes will have to choose between heating and food. Energy price regulator Ofgem has allowed a 80% rise in the UK energy price cap. In Britain only children whose parents earn less than 7400 pounds are eligible after year 2 of school.

The energy price jump in UK of this type is unusual for the major countries of Europe. In France the price of energy is capped and Germany offers  financial support for energy bills for low income people. 

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Home prices rise by 10.9% in March 2013 over the same month prior year, according to the S&P/Case/Shiller index of home prices tracking 20 U.S. cities. Prices increased by 1.2% for the 1st quarter of 2013. Part of the increase is because of the extent of the downturn, other reasons include the Fed's loose monetary policy and low mortgage rates of around 3%. The Shiller index also includes foreclosed properties which enlarges the increase in home prices when the share of foreclosed property sales fall. A separate index by Lender Processing Services shows a 7.6% increase in home prices for March. Prices are up in all 20 cities of the Shiller index for the first time. In San Francisco prices are up by 22.2%, in Phoenix by 22.5%. In the midwest Detroit prices are up 25%, as the auto industry rebounds strongly from a decade of decline.

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Strange as it may sound the retired coal power stations in Europe were back in operation and highly profitable during the COP26 Glasgow conference. Unknown to speakers at the conference calling stridently for complete coal phaseout instead of rapid phasedown including speakers from the European Union and from Tuvalu (population about 1500) this was happening not just in China but also in Europe. This was dictated by energy economics as coal prices have come down by half and natural gas prices have risen ten fold, and natural gas shortfall in Europe.  This report in the WSJ shows coal and lignite plants making huge profits for electricity companies in Europe. As a result the calls for phaseout were seen as hollow by China and India in the last days of the conference leading to the language change in the final agreement to "phasedown of fossil fuels." Natural gas producing power stations are losing 2.26 euros for every megawatt hour, compared to 57 euros per magawatt hour for coal powered power plants, 4 times as high as the previous highest levels in 2017, as reported in the WSJ. Estimates are for coal power stations to be more than gas rivals till 2023. Germany says WSJ still has highest level of addiction to coal and lignite. It generated 40 gigawatts of electricity from coal and lignite in September and October, the highest for these 2 months since 2018, Poland is doing the same exporting its coal based power to the rest of Europe. In the same way coal power plants that were idled are back producing electricity in Spain, Portugal and in UK home of the COP26 Glasgow conference.   ...

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Feldstein says that the $700 billion plan to buy impaired assets will not prevent an overshooting downward in house prices, as more people have negative equity in their homes, rising to 40% of all mortgages at some point; and leading to a cycle of foreclosure and further price declines. This will only decrease the value of the mortgage securities that Treasury seeks to take off the hands of banks. And without direct government help in form of lowcost loans, say 2%, the cost of capital for the government, for 20% of the loan upto $80,000; more and more homeowners will have negative equity in their homes. This will lead to more foreclosures as housing loans are not full recourse, so that only the house is lost and the homeowner can move to an apartment and carry on from there. Thw size of this program would be $1 trillion but it gives the government income from the loans made and these would be full recourse loans so the taxpayer is protected. In Feldstein's view the current plan does not address declining house prices which is the root of the problem. ...

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The bubble in Canada's real estate market reached its peak in 2011-2012. The average price of a home in Vancouver reached a high of C$815,252 in April 2011, before declining to C$721,958 in Sept. 2012, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, Average prices nationwide in Canada were at C$372,544. Prices are being pushed up by buyers from China. Canada is taking steps to restrain the bubble by changing immigration rules. The immigration minister temporarily froze the Federal Skilled Worker Program and the Immigrant Investor Program. Under the latter program citizenship was given in five years to qualified immigrants investing over C$800,000 in Canada. Other measures include cutting the mortgage amortization to 25 years from 30 years, and reducing the amount of home equity Canadians can borrow against from 85% to 80%. Home sales in Vancouver declined 33% in Sept 2012 over prior year and listings increased 14%. The moves are modest because real estate agents see it as a pause in the bidding wars that were taking place, and the market remains overinflated....

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India's National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority placed pricing controls on frequently used antibiotics including Ciprofloxacin, diabetic drugs including Metformin, and heart medications. It also said it would audit manufacturers to ensure that normal production continues. The pricing authority acts under a 1955 law that requires pricing to be affordable for essential drugs needed by the vast majority of poor people in the country. Some mass consumption drugs are now imported where it is unprofitable to make them in India. In the case of other drugs the volume increases from lower prices increases access to medicines, and the volume makes up for the price cuts. An example cited by the pricing authority is essental antibiotic (especially for children), Augmentin, where the prices dropped by 40% but the volume increases as it became more affordable have more than made up for the price reductions, with overall sales higher than before the price cuts.

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Average land prices in China in October 2011 are down 40% from the peak in Sept. 2009, when real estate companies purchased large amounts of land. This means large losses for companies that bought when prices peaked. When this happened in 2008 companies were rescued by the large Stimulus by the Chinese government. It is uncertain what will happen this time as a similiar Stimulus effort is not expected. Prices nationwide for residential land were down 8% in October from the prior year, and transaction volumes were down 37%, according to property firm Soufun. In October and November 2011, land auctions at a number of major cities in China failed, with either no bidders or low bids. According to CLSA property analysts, China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. and Longfor Group have reduced prices of homes by 20% -25% for projects in Shanghai.

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This amazing story about Bend Oregon is a reminder of the mental health crisis that lurks behind the homelessness crisis in America's cities. It is also most unusual because it is about the Mayor of Bend, Oregon, grandson of the mayor of Bend, Oregon then a timber capital in the 1900's, who is a public defender attorney, and finds himself at at a homeless shelter in 2023 in the city he built, the result of mental health issues. He reconciles with two daughters before his death after periods of isolation from his family and ending up in a homeless tent on city streets. At one point he had helped turn Bend into a tourist destination pushing up average home prices to $800,000 to protect residents when timber demand dropped. He finds himself unable to afford a home in this very same town after his mental illness and losing his job.

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The dollar remains the dominant force in capital markets. It is strengthening after US central bank raised interest rates 8 times in 2021-2022 to about 5.25%. China is cutting interest rates as its economy with debt at about 290% of GDP is slowing, the EU increasing rates as it faces inflation fueled by price increases and some price gouging. In the US inflation is cut in half by Fed policy to 4% in May 2023, Biden's policies to help with the cost of living and restrain price gouging, and by supply chains working better than in 2021. The US looks the strongest of the lot.

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Liz Truss's 45 days in office as British prime minister is the shortest of any leader in British history. William Henry Harrison in 1847 was US president for 32 days, before he died of pneumonia. George Canning was  prime minister for 119 days before dying of tuberculosis. Alec Douglas-Home for 363 days more recently when he was replaced by Labour's Harold Wilson.  Douglas-Home in 1964 was seen as out of touch with Britain as an aristocrat in the House of Lords. Harold Wilson of Labour asked at the time how he could lead Britain for the technological revolution needed when he was "a scion (descendent)  of an effete (overrefined and ineffectual) establishment." Truss was seen as out of touch with post covid  Britain with one of seven people missing a meal in Britain and a cost of living crisis for most Britons when she announced a mini budget that did not provide assistance to struggling working families, as other Euroepan leaders were doing and instead cut taxes for higher income people. Douglas-Home abolished resale price maintenance program that prevented sharp price increases by food producers. He lost the 1964 election to Labour's Harold Wilson. Labour under Keir Starmer is in the same position today as it was in 1964 under Harold Wilson as it looks at the decline of the Conservatives. ...

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Liz Truss decides to appoint only loyalists to her cabinet after a leadership contest for the Tory party. Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor, Susana Braverman as Home Secretary, and James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary. All conservatives lining up for positions in the new government were told in no uncertain terms not to criticize a plan first suggested by the Labour party to freeze energy bills at the current level. This could cost 100 billion pounds. Kwasi Kwarteng, Truss's nominee for finance minister says there will be need for some fiscal loosening. Under the 100 billion pound plan to help households with bills the energy bills would be frozen at current level of 1975 pounds per year. Under the plan, commercial banks would deposit money in a state backed fund, which suppliers could then draw on to freeze customer's bills. The government would pay this back over 10-15 years through taxation or a surcharge on bills. By making such quick moves to help households Truss would be putting Britons in a position similar to that in France where energy prices have been capped and Germany where cash payments help households cope with higher energy bills.  ...

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In 2024 one third of the mortgage payment is the average cost of insurance and taxes. Insurance went up with natural disasters fires and floods, taxes go up as home prices surge as they have in 10 years without enough new housing being built.

 For half of people in 5 major Metro areas, Rochester and Syracuse in NY, Omaha in Nebraska, New Orleans, and Miami, at least a quarter of borrowers spend more than half of their mortgage payment in insurance and taxes. Nationwide in US 9%, up from 4% in 2014 spend more than half of their mortgage payment on insurance and taxes.

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Pakistan is seeking a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. As part of the negotiations the IMF is asking for a cut in fuel and other subsidies. This week the new government of Pakistan under Mr. Sharif increased fuel prices by 17% after removing some of the subsidies. Economic mismanagement has led to a lack of funds to support the economy and import needs. Political instability is making finding solutions difficult.

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US president Biden announces a 5 year offshore drilling plan that will allow some drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Cook inlet of Alaska. The Atlantic, Pacific and the Arctic will be closed for drilling leases. Biden had to create a path between opening up drilling and not allowing any drilling following the shortages of oil and gas and high prices from embargoes on Russian oil and gas.

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In the end only concerted pressure from the U.S. including the personal intervention of president Trump, calls from Republican senators to Prince Abdulaziz, Saudi energy minister, salvaged a deal for OPEC+ oil cuts. The Saudis insisted Mexico cut production by 300,000 barrels a day, Mexico stood firm at 100,000 barrels a day. As the Mexican energy negotiator Ms Nahle withdrew to call Mexican president Lopez Obrador, the Saudi energy minister called this "disrespectful." Then president Trump intervened with calls and offered to make up with additional 300,000 barrels a day of cuts from the U.S. North Dakota senator called Prince Abdulaziz and stated that it could affect the U.S.-Saudi relationship if the Saudis did not come to an agreement. The agreement is for 23 countries to in total withdraw 9.7 billion barrels a day from the market, or 13% of world production. Oil production is expected to fall by as much as 30 million barrels a day in April 2020 as a result of the pandemic so it is not clear how much this will raise oil prices, yet it averts a complete collapse of oil prices from the $22 today when markets open on Monday April 13, 2020.  The U.S. Canada, Brazil and G20 countries outside OPEC will make a combined 3.7 million barrels a day in cuts. Saudis, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates combined will cut 2 million barrels a day above their quota.  In addition to warning both sides Saudis and Russia to come to an agreement, president Trump threatened to retaliate to protect U.S. producers from very low oil prices sending many into bankruptcy. Prince Abdulaziz took a tough stand with Mexico and other OPEC countries to present a unified stand. He is the son of the Saudi king and took the energy ministry in fall 2019. He has had difficulty in managing OPEC plus Russia called OPEC+ as its new chief with divergent views from small producers such as Angola and large producers such as Russia. At a conference in February he continued the standoff with Russia saying Russia would regret not making the production cuts he was calling for. The split with Russia after a 3 year collaboration for cuts ended in an all out price war right in the middle of a pandemic.  The Russians underestimated the size and impact of the pandemic. The Saudis took a firm position. Only president Trump's swift and active intervention and offering to make up Mexico's share of cuts saved the day for all oil producing countries, who would all be severely hurt by sinking oil prices below $20 a barrel.     ...

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WSJ's Greg Ip points out the realities on the ground for housing inflation- Austin 11% higher prices for housing 2020-2024, for NYC 20%, supply up 17% in Austin NYC only 3%. Austin avoided rent control route in elections even when prices were up 23% in 1 year, rent control freeze is not allowed in Texas. Prices eventually dropped as supply increased. This is a warning sign for NYC primary winner Mamdani's rent freeze and rent control in NYC. This is not to say that landlords have to get their act together and fix homes, and moderate pricing. It is to say that the supply of housing matters and adding supply to housing as the British Labor government is doing in Britain under a socialist/private enterprise oriented government matters. For this to happen a comprehensive policy is needed cutting time to build reducing permit times, and incentivising builders, as well as cutting costs, and building affordable housing. It is a reflection of the degree of desperation that New Yorkers- created by the same educated and the professional workers among them, the rich and the elites- that the vast number of young college educated people are now pushing free buses, rent freeze, and city run grocery stores. And so little discussion is taking place on the comprehensive plan to increase supply of housing and building the new infrastructure in a city where roads and pavements, whole neighborhood infrastructures are crumbling as in Brooklyn. So little discussion on creating a rising tide that lifts all boats. ...

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PM makes a point at G7- should not the 1.4 billion people of India most of whom are poor have the same access to energy as the people in the rich countries of the G7? It is to ensure this access to energy for the over 1 billion people in India that India has sourced oil from all countries when geopolitical tensions have made the price of oil to jump to new highs. Modi told a session at the G7 meetings- "All of you will also agree with this that energy access should not be the right of the rich only- a poor family also has the same right to energy. And today when energy prices are sky high due to geopolitical tensions, it is more important to remember this thing." Modi said that it was by "taking inspiration from this principle" that "we delivered LED bulbs and cooking gas door to door in India and showed that millions of tons of carbon emissions can be saved while ensuring energy for the poor." Never before in history has this been done on this scale as hundreds of millions of women have benefitted in poor areas where cooking was done by burning wood, and electricity did not exist. Water by tap water in every home, cooking gas, and electricity are now within the reach of every family in India.  Has G7 even thought of these things? And of the scale of the challenge that is being met and the future challenges for climate, technology and health that are being tackled on an unprecedented scale? ...

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A federal jury finds the NAR National Association of Realtors and residential brokerages liable for $1.8 billion in damages for keeping commission rates on home sales artificially high. The case was brought forward by sellers in midwestern states and the decision was announced by the jury at a Kansas City courtroom. Under antitrust rules the verdict could be tripled to $5 billion. At present the sellers pay their own agents commission about 5-6% of the home's selling price, which is shared with the buyers agent. As the WSJ report shows mostly all countries in the world charge lower commissions in the range of 2% and the US has the most realtors, many working parttime-1.6 million of them.

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Biomass carbon removal at $100 per ton is being developed by Graphyte. The price for direct carbon removal from the air using huge fan like devices is $675 per ton. The price has to come down to about $100 per ton for it to become widely used. Graphyte is doing its first project near two timber milling and one rice milling operation in Pine Bluffs, Arkansas. American Airlines is purchasing credits from Graphyte. Graphyte can produce 150 pallets of blocks of biomass a day by July 2024 for carbon reduction of 50,000 tons per day. American Airlines is producing 35 million metric tons of direct emissions a year.