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Scholz sees Germany going through Zeitenwende, a sea change or turning point in its history as it realizes the "value of democracy and liberty, and the fact that they are worth defending." In a guest article in the Frankfurter Allgeimeine Zeitiung Scholz writes-

"Putin wants to split our continent up into zones of influence, into great powers and vassal states. We know what catastrophes that as brought upon us in the past."

"The autocrats of the world are watching closely to see if Putin succeeds. Is the 21st century governed by the justice of the stronger or the strength of justice."

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Germany's chancellor Merz says he is ready to finance Patriot anti missile systems for Ukraine July 10 2025, as Ukraine comes under heavy missile and drone attacks in July 2025.

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The IMF loans of $18 billion approved in March 2014 are conditional on structural reforms in Ukraine which will be painful. This includes a 50% increase in the price of natural gas on May 1, tax increases and spending cuts, flexible exchange rates. About 10% of the state officals will be cut and decreases in pensions for judges. Higher taxes will be placed on alcohol and tobacco products. Prime minister Yatsenuyk, says without the reforms and IMF-EU loans the economy woud contract by 10%, with the package GDP would decline by 3%. Ukraine's 10 year dollar denominated government bonds had a yield of 8.94%. Years of large state subsidies for natural gas, mismanagement and corruption have left Ukraine's finances in bad shape. Ukraine now faces austerity measures similiar to that in other Eastern European countries and Greece, leading to continued political unrest.

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German Foreign Minister Wadephul is interviewed by Nina Haase of the DW.com. She asks him what he thinks of Marco Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference in Feb. 2026. Wadephul says this is also the policy of Germany, that the US and Germany have a lot of common ground. Rubio spoke of cultural bonds, of Christianity, and of the common ground shared with Europe. Wadephul sees a lot of positive ground which he calls, is saying to Germany- we did it in the past in the cold War with the Iron Curtain coming down in the 1950's and that was a success including reunification of Germany. Now as Wadephul sees it the US is saying "lets do it again." What about climate and Ukraine. Wadephul says on Ukraine Germany is in agreement that more pressure needs to be put on Russia, including on India in negotiations to reduce funding of Russia. On climate he says that the US is saying- be flexible which is what Germany agrees with. On migration Wadephul says other European governments are taking the approach to migration the the US and Germany agree with. ...

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For 2025 US stocks S&P 500 returns 19%, foreign stocks in Europe 36%. An extraordinary year for foreign stocks with Germany's big investments in the economy. Actually the average S&P stock was down 3.7%. It was the large investments in AI that propelled the US stock markets S&P 500 to the 19% gain.  AI investment may take a long time to be profitable and some companies may lose money yet the building of data centers creates demand for construction activity, and tariffs are bringing larger investments into the US economy. Media skeptical about tariffs led to many missing the surge in stocks. It was the same overseas after years of Merkel and limits placed in the constitution on needed spending, and the SPD coaltition struggling to get through FDP obstruction to investment spending. Chancellor Merz of CDU joined the SPD to make a big $1 trillion investment in German infrastructure and defense, and removed the constitutional brake on investment Merkel had unwisely put in, with so much of Germany's infrastructure and digital in bad shape. This pushed up European stocks that had languished under the austerity logic of Cameron/Johnson-Merkel. This also was missed by many as the old logic was suddenly and quickly taken out with Russia emboldened in Ukraine taking over much of the eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region. Defense is now a rapidly growing part of the German economy. 2025 was a year of sudden and rapid change in the world economy with tariffs, US investment deals, and Germany taking on defense and infrastructure, which few could predict. And in which the media created confusion by saying the opposite of what was required from investors. ...

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Starmer and closer EU-Britain relations after meetings at Lancaster House March 2025.

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Can Norway expand beyond 2 million barrels a day. Norway has vast reserves  in the Arctic. Higher oil prices have increased Norway's revenues by $5 billion during the Ukraine War. UK could also generate more energy from its reserves in the North Sea if it followed a strategy of using fossil as a transition fuel and provide more funding for the shift to renewables and aid for homeowners to soften impact of higher oil prices.

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Putin's Russia year end QA sessions- "Direct Line" Marathon of 3 million questions. Two from the BBC. Answering the BBC Putin said "if you don't cheat us like you cheated us with Nato's eastward expansion", there would be no more war activity from Russia. Putin believes NATO and European leaders had promised no expansion to Gorbachev before the Soviet Union collapsed. Archives from 1950 show that NATO was formed as Soviets expanded after World War II. At the time Truman took up defense of Turkey and Greece from Soviet expansion. As Eastern Europe became part of the Soviet sphere the situation went on from 1950 to 1990 of 40 years with regional wars in Korea, Vietnam. The Russian leaders including Putin who set Russia on the path to economic recovery had a deep sense of loss of respect as Russia was treated as another European country by Netherlands, Britain and France, Germany former colonial powers that had difficult relations with Russia. It is this deep sense of loss of respect that these leaders felt after the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia suffered economic and political decline from 1990 to 2000 which was reversed by decades of economic growth. This was a period of economic growth in China. As China asserted itself in Hong Kong, Russia pushed back in Crimea and Ukraine regions that had long ties with Russia of language and culture. Had western leaders disbanded NATO and formed a new alliance with new goals with a vision for peaceful coexistence with Russia in the east the situation could have turned to be different. In 2025 the European powers Germany, France and Britain are not willing to see Russia gain points from the outright invasion of Ukraine presenting new obstacles to a peaceful settlement. Ukrainian sentiment is also a factor as giving parts of Donetsk would be unpopular.  ...

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German chancellor Merz makes his frist trip to Asia starting with India. He sees India and Germany as natural partners and shifts the focus to India from China. Under Merkel Germany remained focused on China. This is changing now that Merz is chancellor. The winds of change are also blowing and the war in Ukraine, the distancing of the US under DJT, US and Chinese restrictions, require this change and Modi, Merkel step up to create anew strategic partnership. The EU and German trade is now set to increase significantly as India modernizes its economy. Merz and Modi see less dependence on Russia for oil and gas and defense needs. India seeks German technologies and capital to industrialize its economy. The scope is immense and both sides are at an historic opportunity. Merz is afar cry from the Merkel years when Germany never grasped India's potential and failed to invest in the German economy. Merz has put forward a $1 trillion plan to invest in modernization of Germany and India is the partner Germany has chosen as central to its plans. This brings the entire EU close to India and its aspirations to be a modern economy like the EU. This is a long term project that began today in Ahmedabad with the two leaders at ease at a Kite Festival in Ahmedabad after Merz visited Gandhiji's Sabarmati Ashram. And Merz showed he understood India-"We are in complete agreement in our assessment of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine," Merz said. At the same time, he understood how India's dependence on Russian oil and gas had happened only recently. "Obviously, it is not that simple in India, and I am the last person to visit other countries wagging my finger at them." The patience is there as there is a meeting of minds for what is the largest project of its kind to 2037 and 2047 for 2 billion people pooling technologies, capital and talented engineers. ...

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Deteriorating China Iran relations as the oil imports from Iran for China face US tariffs of 25% on China's exports to US, and US economic relations far more significant for the Chinese economy. China gets somwhere between 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels aday from Iran (80% of Iran's oil exports) into Shandong refiners at $10 below Brent crude prices. Another 400 mbd comes from Venezuela to China. This means $30 billion comes to Iran from oil sales to China at $59 a barrel, and $8 billion for Venezuela from oil sales to China. This has financed much of the bellicose policies towards the US in the western hemisphere and in the Gulf region. Iran's bellicose policies in the Middle East, its nuclear policy, are now seen by China as a distraction and  detract from good economic relations with the US. China $400 billion oil deal 25 year cooperation agreement signed in 2021 was signed under the Biden administration and China today faces a completely different situation in 2026. Even China's relations with Russia are not the same as the US builds better relations with Russia. A wind down of the Ukraine war would change the situation completely and ensure peace in Europe including Russia, as the US works with the EU to meet future challenges having learned from this experience in Europe (Ukraine dividing Europe) and in the Western hemisphere (drug/ migrant. trafficking). When historians write this chapter of the inflows of capital from advanced West to Arab countries and the Gulf region they will write about the huge contrast between China/India's efforts to modernize and these nations where much of that capital was wasted in wars and conflicts and in grandiose projects that made no material difference to the standard of living and quality of life of the vast number of ordinary people. Once the oil dividend is gone with fossil fuels replaced with renewable energy by 2035-2040 this opportunity to advance is lost for the Arab and Gulf region. ...