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Reliance's shares for its new IPO in the power sector fell 17% below the opening price of 450 ruppees. Instead of doubling as investors expected the shares closed at 372 ruppees for the power generation startup company of the Anil Ambani Reliance Group. Reliance raised $3 billion for the new company. Reliance sold 260 million shares to small retail investors for a 10.1 % stake in the company in less than 1 minute in mid Jan 2008. It closed for more than 70 times the the number of share offered. But the reliance name is no guarantee of rising share prices as new economic winds blow over Asia from the US credit and mortgage crisis, creating global effects of downturn in the economy.

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Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, has 495 billion euros in claims on the European Central Bank through the interbank payment system known as Target2. Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo Institute in Munich, says the breakup of the Euro zone would mean that this claim would be put at risk. Data compiled by Tornel of the University of California, Los Angeles, and Westermann of the University of Osnabruck, Germany, show Target claims going from 7% of Bundesbank assets in the beginning of 2006 to 64% by October 2011. Collateral on these loans held by the ECB is mainly sovereign debt of the financially weakest ECB countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Losses on these loans are to be distributed among 17 eurozone central banks according to the proportion of their share in ECB capital, with Germany's being 28%. However with dire finances in some countries Germany could end up with a much larger share of losses. This gives Germany one more reason for the statement that the breakup of the eurozone is unthinkable....

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Upward mobility in China was weak and income growth for average workers sluggish during the years before the coronavirus outbreak. In this sense China is similar to the U.S. and Europe where upward mobility gains after the second world war were lost in the last 30 years partly from the loss of manufacturing to China. It is much worse now as the effects of the coronavirus lead to drops of as much as a third in income for ordinary workers. Lower income workers, the vast majority of Chinese numbering hundreds of millions now suffer from lost work or diminished wages. Small businesses cannot afford to pay the salaries paid before and as workers dip into savings or increase borrowing the retail spending is taking a hit. As a result economists see a vicious cycle of lower spending and lower incomes for the hundreds of millions of ordinary workers in construction and smaller businesses. Some small businesses could just close down because of weak demand affecting the economy over the long term. Before the coronavirus China went over three decades from being a Communist country with relatively equal distribution of wealth but lack of growth and technological development to a capitalist country with the structure of state control of the economy from the Communist period. The result is that 1% of the people control 33% of the wealth and the bottom 25% having 1% of the wealth, according to a 2015 Peking University study. China's president Xi Jinping, head of the Communist party, tried to reverse some of these trends by attacking corruption and making changes that began the task of reversing decades of unequal distribution of wealth under state sponsored capitalist growth. Investments were made in rural medical care, infrastructure and basic services. This did not have much impact because much of the pattern of growth over three decades continues including the housing bubble.  With coronavirus the trend is set for even more unequal distribution of wealth as many workers at the bottom half of the population in incomes either lose work, or see drop in incomes as businesses that hire them struggle from shoe factories to other retail business. Reports of informal economy and street markets in Chengdu in western China and bringing this part of the economy back by the state are effort to get people work in other ways. Researchers estimate that China's bottom 60% of household in incomes lost about $200 billion in income in the first half of 2020. In May premier Li Keqiang said 600 million people in China earn only about $140 a month. Many who lost income or jobs do not have support from the government as China lacks a program of comprehensive unemployment insurance as in Europe and the U.S. to help people get over bad times. 300 million migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to loss of income and dipping into savings.   ...

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China's effort under president Xi to expand the state run sector by providing more credit to state run enterprises and expecting private companies to pursue goals of the state's planned economy. Tackling the coronavirus economic impact required state planning and that experience has further renewed the effort to build the state run companies as a reliable partner for the government. There is also a conviction that private companies are unreliable in a large and complex economy as China's.

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China is moving to shift its economy in a new direction of self-reliance on domestic consumers and local investors. Mr. Xi calls it "domestic circulation." This also means less dependence on imported technologies and inward looking policies. As the pandemic has reduced demand in other countries and as the U.S. and West tighten controls on imports and introduce new restrictions, there is the sense that the entire policy has to shift quickly to dependence on domestic consumers and investors.

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Mass market advertisers see Twitter's 218 million users as not a large audience of the size they would like to see. About one fifth of U.S. internet users are on Twitter, according to Forrester Research. Advertising now generates about 85% of the $317 million in revenues for Twitter in 2012, according to a SEC filing. Twitter provides a tool for sending 140 character messages.

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Trade is just one aspect of the Biden Economic plan. It covers US manufacturing and jobs, Climate Change Action and Renewable Energy, Cost of Living and Wages for workers, Interest rates and inflation, and Capital Allocation with government partnering with the private sector in key industries such as electric cars, solar panels. It has the overwhelming support of most Americans- seven out of 10 Americans favor it polls show. What is described here in the Washington Post as a change from decades of trade policy since Reagan/Bush, Clinton/Obama, is also a response to the loss of key midwestern states by Democrats to Trump in thepresidential election of 2016, and the upheavals for democracy that Biden calls the struggle for the soul of the nation on the White House website. Biden is simply saying that the old policies were a mistake, a huge mistake, and Biden is correcting the Trump response which was loud but lacked the substance that is in the Biden plan through capital allocation in size and government actions to back this up. In this move he now has the support of both Democrats and Republicans. As Greg Ip has pointed out in the WSj no one during the Clinton administration when it engaged China with the World Trade Organization on trade imagined China would replace America as the dominant nation in manufacturing, the size and th scale also affected the climate, the environment in China, and created huge inequalities in the US and China that both nations are trying to correct, Biden in the US and Xi in China. It could even be said these policies were a failure because the size and scale simply overwhelmed everything else with growth rates in China of 12-14%, and the fallout in the near collapse of the economy in the years ahead from hypergrowth.  ...

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Kessler in the WP corrects Obama's claim that he created 800,000 jobs. He says this is clever arithmetic as it takes a low point in Feb. 2010 following the financial crisis. Kessler points out that according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. manufacturing jobs were 12.56 million in Jan. 2009 when Obama became president. In Nov. 2016, early estimates show there were 12.26 million manufacturing jobs, a loss of 300,000. This loss does not reflect the problems in the U.S. auto industry and older industries in the midwestern states as a result of trade and globalization that speeded up with the rapid industrialization of China. And led as Greg Ip pointed out in a recent WSJ report to a rapid acceleration of job losses in a decade that did not happen in the same scale during Japan's industrialization and urbanization in the sixties. This aggravated the situation in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennsylvania, and was met with a feeble response from Democrats. Even a economist like Krugman favoring the Obama administration's efforts came to the conclusion that TPP did not add much to gains from trade as most of the gains had already been realized. More of the gains went to tech and IT in California, at the expense of the auto industry based in the midwest. A report in WP show a president too close to IT in California and failing to grasp the situation in the midwest. Voters punish whoever is in power, regardless of being Conservative or Liberal, in Canada the hollowing out of manufacturing under Harper in Ontario and Quebec led to the win by Trudeau's Liberals.  ...

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Comparison of the IPO's of Google and Facebook and the prospects for the two companies.

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Twitter's debt is rated as junk in Nov. 2014. Twitter shares are down about 37% in 2014. S&P says the company may not generate positive discretionary cash flow before 2016.

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China's leading online retailer with its own warehouses and delivery similiar to Amazon is JD.com. It has 118 warehouses in 39 Chinese cities, and 1045 smaller pickup centers in 500 smaller cities. Its online service and infrastructure to support it has been built carefully since 2006. It can now deliver by 3pm the next day and handles 2 million orders per day. The company raised $1.78 billion on the NASDAQ in the U.S. in 2014. Hong Kong venture capital firm invested $10 million in 2006. As it added new systems and software other investors including Tiger Global, Yuri Milner, and the Waltons invested in the firm. JD focusses on low cost and reliable fast delivery using motorbikes for 20,000 couriers for China's congested traffic in cities. It is a unique combination of Amazon, UPS and Wal-Mart in its innovative way of running its retail operation. Liu is the son of a cargo shipowner from Jiangsu province who studied sociology at Renmin University in Beijing, before starting an electronics store in Beijing's high tech zone Zhongguancun. The online retail idea took off when he setup an online store in 2004. He says a lot has changed since the early days when delivery was slow with many customer complaints, and says logistics is important because of user experience. Because JD charges little for delivery margins are thin, and the company has focussed on growing the user base over profitability....

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Weidner gives 10 reasons to be wary about buying Facebook shares. The biggest may be that the value has peaked, especially when this is validated by the large number of private holders selling their shares including Goldman Sachs. The percentage of IPO shares that are being sold by private holders in the Facebook IPO is 57%, compared to 28% for Google. Clearly something is going on.