Letter from the Editor

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Recent coverage guide 

Three most significant developments-

The most significant developments of recent days and weeks include the Esper episode in which the U.S. military adamantly opposed bringing military troops to the nation's cities, as contrary to American values and only as a last resort option. The Secretary of State Mr. Mike Pompeo supported Mr. Esper, the Defense Secretary, and the Chief of the combined chiefs of staff, in discussions with president Trump who considered this option after a week of race riots in American cities and decided not to do it. See Esper development. This has helped keep the focus on the virus during the essential reopening of the economy, keeping out distractions, and helping keep focus on the surge in southern and western states in the U.S. in July. It has helped keep the focus of the Trump administration on the economy in 2020, which is critical for America's future as it recovers from the coronavirus and sets out on a new path of development that keeps the people in mind and a complete infrastructure renovation.

The other development is the U.S. frustration with China and the WHO in getting more information about the virus from Wuhan- a request was sent on January by the U.S. government for its team of experts to go to Wuhan. Normally this is quickly approved and the U.S. can learn first hand how serious it is and what it should do. The approval came after 7 weeks on February 16, because the coronavirus is explosively contagious the 7 weeks were costly in loss of hundreds of thousands of lives around the world. See Der Spiegel. Coupled with China's intransigence on coronavirus information openness is the CDC and Health and Human Services Department's failure about the same time in February to do testing right. By February 9 the FDA had failed to provide a working test with a failure in the third component of the test for mutated virus. It delayed letting private labs and labs of teaching hospitals develop their own tests and use them for 3 crucial weeks as shown in WSJ analysis. The combined delays from China and internal CDC failure in testing made it difficult to implement the strategy of test and trace with contact tracing used by South Korea and Taiwan to control the coronavirus. That strategy works only if the virus has not been allowed to spread widely in the population. 

The third development is the paradox of reopening in U.S. compared to countries such as Germany, the failure of high tech in the U.S. as apps from tech companies became a waste of time and were abandoned and U.S. contact tracing fell behind. Germany opted for low tech solutions implemented immediately using existing resources - a phone, computer with centralized database and relied mainly on district offices throughout Germany, with motivated people having good human skills to talk to people fearful of this strange virus but willing to cooperate if talked to in the right way. See Germany contact tracing. Why is this significant? It is because contact tracing and quarantining areas and people infected lets millions of people and millions of small and medium businesses reopen with confidence. Saving jobs and normal ways of living, is as important as saving lives in this pandemic. Contact tracing enables a strategy of small targeted lockdowns as Germany is doing. A German study shows mask use cuts cases by 40%. The surge in the southern U.S., in Florida, Texas, California, Arizona and other southern states is a new development following reopening of bars and restaurants in June and the failure to ensure social distancing and mask use especially among younger people. Reopening stadiums to fans for soccer could still reverse gains in Germany.

Other developments and coverage-

The worldwide search for vaccines with companies, universities and research institutions moving at great speed to come up with new vaccines. Most significant is the effort for the Oxford vaccine research and the alliance that brings together Astra Zeneca for distribution, Serum Institute of India for manufacturing and Oxford for the research and invention of a vaccine.

The coronavirus quarantine for China, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Italy, Spain, France, Britain, and the U.S.  is covered from different angles and perspectives showing divergent responses in each country, success rates, and the way it has affected life in each place from schools and hospitals to everyday life in cities. It shows how people are coping and the evolving impact on business and the economy in each place. Everything from how to cope, prevention, social distancing, stay at home, the effectiveness of contact tracing and quarantine, masks, to mental health, government actions for supporting incomes, schools and business reopenings, and the country by country experience.

The economies of all countries are reopening in phases, and the focus now shifts to bringing back jobs and cutting job loss. The U.S. April jobs report with 2.5 million jobs added, positive jobs reports May, June, July, and the solidarity in the European Union with Germany under Merkel supporting 500 billion euros of support in the form of grants to small and medium business in the EU, offer new hope of a rapid economic recovery. Merkel's CDU has pointed out that that loans that are repayable to Italy, Spain, or other countries needing help would be giving stones not bread, showing how much has changed since the bailouts of Greece in the eurozone crisis and the austerity measures of that period.

For a strong recovery doing contact tracing and isolation of clusters in the U.S. and Britain which have fallen behind can take a lesson from the low tech successful effort in Germany- see Germany contact tracing. Apps have failed here where simple low tech efforts are working in Germany that can be started quickly with existing resources- a computer with a centralized national database, offices in each district, a phone and a desk, is all that is needed with the critical factor the person doing the calling having the skills to talk to people. 

Message for courage and united endeavour to overcome- Queen Elizabeth's inspiring message, the first since she was 14 years old in wartime 1940, was that we will meet again. That those who come after us will say that we of this generation were as strong as any, the attributes of  self-discipline, good-humored resolve, and fellow feeling characterize us. In Queen Elizabeth's own words- "The pride in who we are is not a part of our past, it defines our present and our future." In this context one can ask is national pride and endeavour not a good thing? Does it not bring out the best in us to make and brighten a world community?

 The Saudi Russia oil price war brings oil price relief to oil importing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America, particularly nations that are industrializing rapidly such as India. Yet the steep drop in the price of oil - $22 on April 12- poses risks for the economies of oil producing countries and risks for the 11 million workers in the U.S. oil industry. U.S. president Trump personally intervened to get OPEC+ and the U.S. cut production by 9.7 million barrels a day. This will increase to about 20 million barrels, says president Trump, to offset decline in demand of 30 million barrels a day. This one initiative has helped Russia as it faced the coronavirus surge to over 700,000 cases and provides Russia with U.S. indirect assistance in keeping its economy healthy at a crucial time.

The U.S. China trade war  is halted in December with a new round of tariffs on laptops and mobile phones cancelled by president Trump. Other import duties on a portion of imports from China were kept in force by president Trump as the U.S. continued to monitor the declining trade deficit with China. For the first time in decades a key Trump goal of a major turnaround in the U.S. trade deficit with China is being achieved. Mr. Trump sees this as critical for U.S. jobs and U.S. manufacturing competitiveness. China is essentially decoupling from its tight export relationship with the U.S. yet retaining its goal of technological competition and its model of state subsidized enterprises. China is also having to shift parts of its economy back to informal economy of street sellers and other vendors for cities in provinces in the interior as its manufacturing economy slows with lack of U.S. and European demand.

The movement for restructuring of supply chains began with the trade war with China and has accelerated with two new developments. First the failure of the early warning system with China with U.S. teams held up from January 6 request to China for a team to go to Wuhan and not approved till February 16, crucial 7 weeks in which the very contagious coronavirus spread to infect millions of people around the world. See Der Spiegel. A combination of failures at WHO and with China, leading to a U.S. ultimatum and severing all WHO ties. The U.S. and allies Britain, France, Japan, India have also sensed that the outshoring of production has failed miserably when it comes to health care supplies, pharmaceutical supplies, and keeping technological leadership with existing manufacturing and supply chain arrangements. Britain, France, Japan and India are also following the lead of the U.S. as they reposition their industry and prepare for restructuring of supply chains. The U.S. response is to form a new alliance of nations in a new realignment with Australia, India, Japan, Britain France, the European Union, Vietnam and other allies around the world to restructure supply chains. Other issues have emerged in June and July in U.S. China relations over Hong Kong, the border escalation with India, Huawei and 5G networks, worsening of China's relations with Australia, India, Britain, Japan, Taiwan, key allies of the U.S. Fundamentally the U.S. sees China very differently now, and this is evident in statements from the administration's Pompeo at State, the FBI's Wray, Navarro on trade and technology, all pushing back. This will now shape world affairs and world economic structure for the next three decades.

The changes in Mexico corruption, Argentina, Brazil and Chile as Latin America struggles with problems of corruption (Mexico),  debt and inflation (Argentina), public spending (Brazil) and lack of public pension systems (Chile). And in Mexico renegotiation of the NAFTA with new USMCA trade treaty with America. Only to have the situation aggravated by the coronavirus epidemic. The surge in the pandemic in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico shows the weakness in Latin America. The progress under globalization shown to be hollow with exposed weakness in sanitation and health, and in basic public services, of a glaring nature in Brazil. Latin America now has over 3 million cases in the pandemic amid desperation, lack of health funding and failure of consensus.

Lyrarc.com also gives clarity on controversial issues such as China's Belt and Road Initiative and infrastructure development in Asia, Africa, the issues facing Boeing with the 737 crashes, China's Huawei in new 5G tech networks, medical advances in Africa. Other interesting and useful articles on health, lifestyle, science, technology, work, women, and sports.

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Distortions in the investment allocations that happened during the last decade with infrastructure, public health services starved of resources, worker incomes fraught with difficulties, global supply chains neglecting the national interests of the U.S. and other countries, waste of investments in novel ideas, are exposed during this pandemic. The result being a loss of hope in a brighter future for people in many countries. Accompanying this was the growth of China and the dilution of national pride, a decline of a sense of nationhood, of cultural literacy, in America, Britain, Europe, and Allied countries of Asia, Latin America and Africa. Walt Whitman extolling the virtues of America, Carl Sandburg extolling the virtues of the American worker and a sense of "The People, Yes"  virtually disappeared, turned over to dull drab language of economists and politicians, making us derelict of responsibilities to country.

Fifteen decades ago A. Lincoln stated- "The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise to the occasion. As our case is new we must think anew, and act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and we shall save our country."

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