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Too soon to relax
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The problems in consumer spending, housing prices remain aeven after the crisis in the credit markets appears to have calmed down. And corporate bankruptcies and bond defaults remain a problem as well as the billions of the $945 billion IMF estimated losses that have not yet been taken. According to Standard and Poors some 122 issuers with debt around $102 billion are vulnerable to default. Even if like Rip Van Winkle one slept through the Bear Stearns crisis and the financial crisis one would things largely similiar to that before the current settling of the credit markets and the dangers to consumer spending and from housing price declines and foreclosures, corporate bankruptcies and corporate bond defaults and more losses not previously revealed, much the same as before and just as dangerous as before.
Economic and sales forecasts in the boom years before the 2008 financial crisis, and well into the downturn, that lost objectivity and analytical focus.
07/14/2005
How objectivity and analytical focus was lost as company and association management in the housing, auto and other industries, and their economists tried to believe and maintain the status quo. A similiar situation at the US central bank, the IMF, and other locations. The tendency to be upbeat and ignore emerging danger signs requiring a more realistic assessment. And the frequent revisions as a result of this.
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