LyrArc Article Gist
Retail sales in Vietnam for the first 2 months went up by 21% from same period in 2008, down from 32% growth the prior year, but still holding up. At its height Vietnam's consumer price index went up by 28% in 2008, now its down to 14.8% in February 2009. This gives a big boost to disposable incomes. As a result Vietnam expects growth of 5% a year, according to the IMF. It was 8.4% in 2007, 6.2% in 2008. Vietnam is less dependent on exports and this has helped sustain growth. The inflation shock acted as abigger brake on GDP growth, and now this is easing. And exports were down by 5.1% for the first 2 months, not the steep decline in countries like Taiwan and S. Korea. The Philippines has 30% of growth dependent on exports compared to 70% for Thailand, and it has a steady flow of remittances from workers overseas employed in stable fields like health care and education. These remittances go into disposable income and are spent quickly so they acted as a stabilizer. Indonesia also has a growing domestic market, and is not as dependent on exports. Domestic consumption in both countries should help them see 4% growth according to government estimates for the Phillippines and Indonesia. See the link to Honda motorcycles to observe how the domestic market is continuing to grow for Honda in Indonesia.