LyrArc Article Gist
JAPAN PM SANAE TAKAICHI VISIT TO INDIA JULY 3, 2026. Deepening of ties between Asia's 2 leading democracies and largest top 5 economies of the world with a combined population of 1.5 billon and a combined purchasing parity GDP of 27 trillion dollars about 60% of China's purchasing power GDP. With the acceleration of the Indian economy to about 8% growth and complementing Japanese capital and Indian ambition the effort will be made to close the gap with China, to establish independent resilient supply chains, and set the new course for Asia as a whole. Once the gap is closed over the next 10 years just Japan India partnership will be the size of the Chinese economy. The American and European Union economies would be the size of the Asian economies also complementing the Japan India partnership, to set a clear course for the world of nations based on the rule of law, open navigation, and peaceful cooperation for development of Africa, Asia and Latin American nations.

LyrArc Article Gist
How the grandiose visions of Saudi new cities in the desert are being reset after the war, and the people in the poorest countries are being faced with higher prices for food, fuel and fertilizer when they can least afford it in 2026. The media focus has been on the Hormuz without saying, A. -that now with the Omani route added to the Iranian route in Hormuz a new defacto 2 route Hormuz is setup by the US Iran agreement. B.- that China has already reset its energy policy to do without the 3 million barrels a day it got through Hormuz, India has already setup new oil supplies from Venezuela, Japan is working out new arrangements, US is creating incentives for oil companies to produce in other regions of the world. And C.- the renewable energy policies, how much energy to use per unit of GDP under effcient use, is being accelerated in EU, India, China and Japan, and indirectly also in the US as cost of renewables comes down compared to fossil fuels. These will be constructive aspects of the situation. The world also shifts away from the Middle East a source of decades of wars that brought down the Soviet Union, destroyed some economies in South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan), created the distraction for the US that led to letting its infrastructure and economy to weaken, and destroyed the economic and social fabric in many parts of the Arab world and North Africa (Libya, Iran, Iraq, Syria). It closes a chapter of the Middle East from which lessons can be drawn for a focus on economic development and using science and technology to improve living standards of the people of the world, to tackle climate change, and for peaceful cooperation of major nations. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Iranian response to Memorandum of Understanding shows reality of 2 factions in Iran, the IRGC military faction, and the elected president Pezeshkian plus Turkey /Pakistan/Egypt and Qatar as the second faction. With IRGC military rejecting the Memorandum on opening Hormuz and discontinuing nuclear weapons programs. This was true at the time Vance conducted negotiations and the Memorandum appears to have been accepted by IRGC only under great pressure from Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar, and the faction under Iranian elected president Pezeshkian. Where IRGC thinking could have been to give  agreement to the Memorandum that they had no intention of keeping, as its policy on nuclear weapons remains unchanged, and its goal is to use Hormuz for leverage and extend its control of Hormuz channel. The cost of sanctions and not being able to export oil, the effect on its economy, on cost of living with rampant inflation, may be of little concern to the people who run the IRGC military who suppressed all dissent and protests in 2026. Protests across different parts of society to the deteriorating economy. How could the US respond? The US used the time of the ceasefire to create a new status quo by using open navigation of the seas as the principle behind opening and protecting the Omani side of the Hormuz for oil shipment. This is a principle accepted by all countries. There is a backup plan of the US, China, India, Japan and other countries and this is to prepare rapidly to do without Hormuz so that the economies of these nations are not affected. The US also supported efforts by Saudis and Kuwait, UAE, to increase oil exports through channels outside of Hormuz, UAE's decision to increase oil supplies and lower prices by leaving OPEC, and US creating alternative supplies for India through Venezuela. Most important is China's decision that it no longer needs the 5 million barrels of oil from Hormuz for its economy to operate using alternative supplies and increasing efficient use of its oil resources. The world is also building up oil supplies and inventories so that Iran cannot threaten a cutoff from Hormuz because all nations have made other arrangements. Attacks by Iran on oil shipping on the Omani side protected by the US breaking the principle of open navigation of the seas, can then be considered Iran disrupting an open seas navigation route which it no longer is allowed to do under international law. This is something the world public opinion would support. The NYT has been critical of the DJT action in Iran, the WSJ and other media had joined in criticism. The situation in July 2026 is that the criticism of the US by NYT and other media, and from Europe and other countries in Asia will now be muted, because the US has tried all the options and is now finding ways to be able to bypass Hormuz altogether, and a backup plan or strategy to minimize the impact on oil prices. So that oil price of $70 may be kept at level around 10-20% higher not much more as Iran's military IRGC continues to disrupt the Hormuz supplies.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Guy Scott, a Britisher from Livingston on the Zambezi river in what was then Northern Rhodesia, was a leading white member of Zambia's government. He served in Zambia as Agriculture Minister under Kaunda and Vice President under Sata. Guy Scott helped tackle a drought in Zambia to prevent famine. He died at 82 in Lusaka where he has a farm for strawberries. Guy Scott studied Economics at Cambridge in 1965. In 1986 he studied for doctorate in cognitive sciences at the University of Sussex. His father was a Scottish born physician, lawmaker and newspaper publisher, his mother a English nurse. For a 90 day period in 2024 after the death of Sata he was president of Zambia. Guy Scott is one of a long line of Britishers who helped people in Asia and Africa during the transition to home rule that started with the British agent in Rajkot, Gujarat, Sir Frederic Lely, who helped Mohandas Gandhi get accepted to study law in London. When India emerges as a modern industrialized economy by 2040-2047, the largest democracy in the world, and with Indonesia by far the largest country in the world given their shared heritage and modernization, it is important not to forget the role played by well meaning and good British people. Britishers who understood and respected the country and culture, that were both part of and separate in their aspirations for an independent India from the colonial establishment. Guy Scott will be one of these well regarded Britishers in the modern history of the world. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
German economic growth drops in 2026 to below 1%. What is happening?Germany manufacturing jobs drop to 6.6 million lowest in 10 years in 2026 as China makes same products for less and better. China is shipping more of its products to the German market and displacing German products in world markets. The same problems affecting the US in loss of manufacturing jobs is affecting Germany. This is happening as China uses long range plans coordinated with industry and state owned companies to deliver superior results in world markets to American and German companies competing on their own without coordination with the government in a long range plan and effort. The American and German companies face greater uncertainty in markets and are slow to invest in critical areas and technologies as a result leaving them exposed to Chinese competition. China has used the Japanese style subsidizing its industries and has another advantage in doing this in that many are state owned companies or heavily subsidized and supported by the state. After 1990 the fall of the Soviet system led to a sense that free markets in their purest form were better. This was not really true as the soviet system of state planning failed because it did not use the best features of the market economy that work. Japan adapted the market system to its needs and used state partnership with private industry to produce good results. The US did not learn from Japan's example. China learned from both the failure of soviet style planning and the success of the Japanese system to adapt its state plannning system by including aspects of the market economy. The US and Germany can only learn from these examples and adapt US market economy by including aspects of what worked for China and Japan of state plannning and long range plans of industry and government. Look back to how FDR won the war- within 5 years 1940-1945 he combined the best aspects of the planning and coordination of government and industry to achieve goals not thought possible. Britain did the same which shows such planning and coordination is not only a part of the US system of business and industry, it is just that these lessons and the lessons of other nations like Japan and China after 1950 were forgotten. India is now adapting its system for business and industry, and government for five year plans borrowing and learning from the examples of the US, Japan, China and the EU. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Andy Burnham is the first UK prime minister to have a degrees in English literature- a degree from Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge. Other prime ministers had degrees in history, Economics, Politics, and classical studies. Blake Morrison says here that a degree in English adds broadmindedness and empathy. Burnham thinks a knowledge of Chaucer ( one of Burnham's favorites), Shakespeare, Orwell and Harrison, has done him well on people's footsteps, as he campaigned in Manchester and Makerfield. This week The conservative press in the Telegraph and The Times, Cambridge University also commented favorably on this. After all a Nation that favors tradition, right down to the monarchy and sessions parliament, in the courts, and in its unwritten Constitution based on precedent, is unlikely to find a knowledge of Chaucer and Shakespeare to be at odds with a knowledge of the people and how to run the country for their benefit in a modern democracy. Economics has become too theoretical and quantitative to the point that it missed completely that China under CCP using an adaptation of a market economy and state planning, could catch up with the United States and Europe within 3 decades, going from bicycles and rural economy to  one of the largest modern transportation networks across the country, and dominating world manufacturing, supply chains and trade. Burnham says this author, professor emeritus from the University of London, could show his father that a degree in English from Cambridge was well worth his time by citing from Tony Harrison's poem called V about the power or words. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
After UAE leaves OPEC and US increases oil production (Venezuela+), China reducing imports keeps oil prices low and keeps Hormuz closure from affecting oil prices. This has major impact on all countries that are affected by the shortage of oil as this puts more oil into the market (about 4 million barrels a day that China imported through Hormuz), and by lowering oil prices helps China as it pays less for oil it imports from other sources outside Hormuz. It also helps poor countries such as India and China, Pakistan, Philippines, Indonesia, rest of Asia, Africa and Latin America. By keeping oil prices low China also help climate change action by accelerating its renewable energy production. India and EU, US, also increase renewable energy production as a consequence of Hormuz, leading to strong climate change action. These are some of the positive side of Hormuz as the world with China leading the way learns that it is best to do without Hormuz. Though China does not say this publicly China does not want to see more nuclear weapons capable countries in volatile regions. This is true also of India, Indonesia, and EU. China  (And India) also consider it a high priority for its economy to maintain trade relations with the US. This is rarely stated in the Media today. What this means is that oil prices can be kept low as the largest nations together EU, US, China, India, Japan join together to keep oil prices low not repeating the situation during an earlier naval blockade April 13 to June 18 2026 of prices going to $125 a barrel. China has some of the largest coal reserves and oil strategic reserves in the world which make it possible for China to do this. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China made a prolific use of oil during its rapid economic growth phase. China is adapting to  3 million missing barrels of oil from Hormuz by drawing down reserves, cutting use of crude oil converted into plastics, and other measures. This is an opportunity for China to reduce the amount of oil it consumes by copying the example of more efficient use of oil per unit of GDP that is seen in the last decade in Germany and Japan. This would be better for China and for the world economy as it adapts to the uncertainty and wars of the last 3 decades of the Middle East. The US could also take the example of Germany and Japan in more efficient use of oil for the same degree of growth.

LyrArc Article Gist
"If you outsource your learning (your human knowledge then why exist?" asks Nadella, head of Microsoft. After all he says a company is a learning system. We at Lyrarc with our skepticism of the value of  robots and AI by themselves without the driving human component, thoroughly agree with Nadella of Microsoft. Nadella says the best thing is to have as many AI models as companies- hundreds of thousands of companies as learning systems keeping their individual human knowledge bases intact alongside AI supplements. The industry jargon for this is "open weight models" which is to take a basic core of AI and add your own individual learning component for an individualized learning system. To enable this Microsoft is offering multi models including cost effective Deep Seek and Cohere in its Azure AI Foundry, Amazon doing the same with Bedrock and Google following the same path. In an interview with Yash Patil cited in Business Insider, Nadella Explains, saying-  "My simple thing is there should be as many models in the world as firms in the world. Because after all, what is a firm? A firm is a learning system." "I don't want to be locked into any one model. I want to be able to use my own context, my own data — in fact, my own traces to maybe even take a much more open-weight, cost-efficient model or a fine-tuned model." "It can't be, 'Hey, look, I have two frontier models or three frontier models' or whatever, some finite set that have learned everything that is differentiated today in the economy because then it collapses.'" "You can always buy a tool, you can even outsource a task or even a job, but you can't outsource your learning. If you outsource your learning, then why exist?" ...

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ Editorial Board on Andy Burnham "wish him well,"  yet  this editorial says "he has wrong instincts." Calls Burnham as being "cipher on immigration," "want government to take lead on housing construction" and "wants greater state control of utilities," are unfounded criticism as shown below- "Cipher on immigration" - Burnham has supported Shabana Mahmood, as Home Secretary, on new action for strict immigration rules, tight control over migration, similar to Denmark.  He "wants greater control over utilities."  WSJ says nothing about how utilities were privatized under the Conservatives for basic services that are necessities for a basic quality of life- water, energy and transportation. It is widely accepted across Britain that the private entities have dismally failed the British people in ways not thought possible. Handing basic services to for profit companies was a fundamental error in Britain as it deteriorated the quality of life of the British people. As Burnham pointed out yesterday in speech to Labour and the British people if one cannot get something as basic as a bus service right how on earth can one fix the larger problems facing Britain? He "wants government to take the lead on housing construction."  When there are shortage of housing affecting the standard of living and quality of life as in the US and Britain the government can make a difference, and its stepping in and doing things correctly can improve the quality of life of the British people. He has "the wrong instincts on economy" with suffocating net zero policies. It is reported in The Guardian that Burnham will support drilling for oil to help bring down cost of energy. The focus now is not net zero goals but making life better, improving the quality of life, achieving some balance which now is leaning towards cost of living affecting the people. In fact on July 19 DJT said people will be dancing in the streets of Aberdeen as Burnham is supporting drilling for oil in the North Sea. Much of the criticism of the Sky News and WSJ continues to follow a pattern of failed coverage of the past with no faith in Britain's future and potential. Every new effort is met with "it can't be done." He has the wrong instincts for business. In modern economies business is part of and the main driver of the economy. In Burnham's work in Manchester business was part of his plan for the economy, and successfully implemented. For far too long in Britain there has not been an honest reckoning on how policies that were reckless with the quality of basic services that affect the quality of life of the British people, would let Britain down, would fail to deliver for the people of Britain. The country that led the Industrial Revolution deserves something better and should get it in this one bold effort by Burnham. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US can working with all countries find replacement for Hormuz supplies. The meetings with Iraqi prime minister Zaidi at the White House are one part of an extended effort that includes China, India, UAE, EU, Venezuela, other oil producers and oil consuming countries and regions with expanding shift to renewable energy (India, China, EU). Chevron and other companies plan to invest $60 billion in oil projects in Iraq including Kirkuk to Baniyas pipeline. The plan is to ramp up Iraqi oil production to the 4.5 million barrels a day Iraqi production by rebuilding or putting  new pipeline from Iraq to the Syrian coast on the Mediterranean. This is activity from the White House to replace Hormuz as this will keep the US out of a prolonged conflict. The media has not covered the replacement of Hormuz as a viable option to bypass the conflict, leaving a naval blockade in place, and continuing focus on domestic priorities with China, India, EU and other major nations all working together in this direction. China's economy is weak, India's needs trade and technology infusion, EU needs US cooperation and trade, all 3 powers keenly interested in a different path than one put forward by Iran of prolonged and unneeded conflicts for 4 billion people in these largest economies and the 4 billion people in Africa other Asia, and Latin America. That is 8 billion people's interests vs 45 million in Iran (if IRGC has only half the population's support in rural Iran, small towns). Can 5% of the world's population determine the direction of the 95%? Can culture wars in the US which heavily determine the distortions appearing in the NYT,  and the ideological wars on capitalism vs socialism in the WSJ, Republican vs Democrats midterms and other election politics distorted presentation, be allowed to obscure this fact that 95% of the world's people including Americans are interested in fixing drug cartels and fentanyl, fixing dilapidated infrastructure, in building new housing, in tackling oil prices, not the bombing of targets in the Middle East (limiting such action to nuclear weapons facilities not using force in Hormuz). China adds 4 million barrels a day by finding alternatives sources. UAE and Saudis are increasing production outside Hormuz, UAE outside of OPEC. Iraq can add 3 million barrels a day from 1.5 million barrels a day in June 2026 to 4.5 million barrels a day. Because Venezuela's current production is about 1 million barrels a day it can ramp this up to 3.5 adding 2.5 million barrels a day. The chart below shows how Hormuz can be replaced and the task ahead for nations and regions representing 8 billion people in the world. UAE 2 million barrels a day via pipelines, Saudi add 2 million barrels a day via pipelines, Iraq 3 million barrels a day via pipelines, China 4 million barrels a day by alternative sources, India 2 million barrels a day from alternative sources and renewable energy target upgrade, Venezuela 2.5 million barrels a day,  US  1 million barrels a day, Other - Guyana, Canada, Brazil. Shown alongside is a report from Goldman Sachs analysis which come to a similar conclusion and with facts on each specific region's ramp up of oil supplies to replace Hormuz in a race against time.So that Hormuz will be left behind, so that the world and the US of 8 billion people can pursue other priorities of peaceful cooperation, to achieve "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" as the Founders aspirations and the world's aspirations.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
UK Reform Party has taken large donations from cryptocurrency companies. Reform leader Nigel Farage has received a 5 million pound gift from a cryptocurrency firm. What does this mean for cryptocurrency regulation in the UK as a world financial center, if Reform wins a general election and appoints the next Governor of the Bank of England when Andrew Bailey retires in 2028. This is discussed in The Guardian. The banking system of the US, UK and large countries was set up over many years and currency is only issued by a central bank with the financial backing of the nation. Cryptocurrency cannot on the basis of technology take that role without posing risks and destabilizing the financial system. The gradual splitting of society by the information economy, neglect of infrastructure, pharmaceutical pricing, banking speculation as in 2009 crisis, have been eroding some of the basic structures of democracy for the last two decades from within.  The wars in the Middle East policies, and the open borders migration policies, were effects from outside. What this has led to is counter to what one would expect. To fight open borders and the marginalization of some parts of the working class DJT Republicans have used whatever resources were available at the time in the 2024 presidential election. The cryptocurrency firms used this in opportunistic fashion to affect regulation of this currency by supporting the reelection bid of DJT in 2024 by making large donations. This has led to less regulation of cryptocurrency firms. Is this in the best interests of the Nation? Will this destabilize the banking system in ways that have happened before in the deregulation of banks before the 2009 financial crisis? In Britain a new Bank of England governor will be appointed after Andrew Bailey's term expires in 2028. Reform party in UK if elected as government would appoint the next Governor of the Bank of England. Reform's growing popularity is a result of Conservatives and Labour failing to take action on open borders, asylum hotels, and migration policy, following an ECHR code of rights that is inappropriate to such migration. What this means is that unexpected things happen as a result. Cyrptocurrency risks of destabilizing the banking system increase as a result of failure of parties on migration. This could be more destabilizing for Britain because of its role as a financial centre than the industrialized  economies such as Germany, China, and industrializing economies such as India. It poses risks in the US yet Federal Reserve Governor Walsh can exercise his own judgement about cryptocurrency and Congress can exercise oversight, the large banks can act to show the risks of destabilizing that cryptocurrency can pose. For Britain it is particularly dangerous as the US is also an industrialized power compared to Britain's focus on finance alone. Andrew Bailey can ignore lobbying by Reform Party in 2026 (Farage met with the Governor of the Bank of England), yet what happens if Reform appoints the next Governor in 2028? These are questions Britain needs to ponder. It is also why Andy Burnham is Britain's last chance to get things right on migration to the point that the British people feel good and proud of their heritage and history, British neighborhoods across the country feel safe and secure, and Britain shifts to reindustrialize its economy with partners in China and India, the European Union, and the US. A former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Sir Charlie Bean told the BBC about donations of Christopher Harbonne, who has a 13% ownership interest in cryptocurrency firm,Tether. "Stablecoins are only stable if they have the appropriate regulatory environment… But there is right now an unsurprising regulatory race to the bottom amid the potential for greater profits." He added: "When funds are coming from major shareholders of such large financial institutions, there is a clear potential conflict of interest here, for example, in the appointment of a new Bank of England governor. Transparency is one solution." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ Editorial Board on the closure of Hormuz and US efforts to strike Iranian coastal missile sites to open it after Iran's IRGC rejected the terms of the Memorandum to open Hormuz. What purpose did the Memorandum serve? DJT let JD Vance come up with a negotiated settlement -accepting efforts of Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar  to mediate a way out to open Hormuz- to make some concessions such as ending Iran sanctions, and opening oil markets to Iranian oil exports, ending the naval blockade, putting nuclear weapons development for negotiations during the 90 day period after the ceasefire.  The IRGC military inside Iran accepted it under pressure from the elected president Pezeshkian and Turkey, Pakistan. Yet its approach has been to accept one day and the following day issue statements contradicting this the next day. Some of the clauses were kept deliberately vague on the insistence of IRGC or worded in a way that IRGC could point to their interpretation and reject efforts for a ceasefire  and opening Hormuz. In the light of this experience 2 conclusions were reached by the US- the IRGC makes decisions for Iran not the elected president Pezeshkian and IRGC does not want to open Hormuz except by charging tolls as away to finance its missile operations. In this kind of a situation how does the US respond effectively without getting into a land conflict that distracts US from its domestic goals of building a strong economy, cost of living action, and rebuilding US infrastructure? This Editorial says Schumer's effort to block defense bills does not serve the national interest. Schumer's point to exercise caution to focus on domestic goals of rebuilding the US economy serves the Nation well, yet continuously blocking the president to gain in the midterms is not a good strategy. Lyrarc points out that the best way is for the US to continue the naval blockade if Iran won't allow Hormuz to be opened to all ships without tolls. And step two would be to find enough alternative sources of oil to make up for the 20 million barrels from Hormuz. Some of this could come from reducing use of oil and gas which China has done by importing less oil from 12.5 million barrels a day to 8.5 million barrels a day, effectively doing without the 4 million barrels a day it got from Hormuz. By doing this the US can avoid the effort to open Hormuz through alternative sources of oil supplies,  avoid being drawn into a prolonged conflict it does not need. Achieving its objectives on nuclear and Hormuz in a different way exercizing patience and using wisdom alongside strength. That course means the US would work with the European Union, UK, China, India, oil companies and other oil producing regions to forgo Hormuz oil as Lyrarc has proposed as the most effective answer to threats about Hormuz, and continuing the naval blockade.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China's export dependent economy with 4% decline in fixed investment Jan-May 2026 and 27% jump in exports.1 million car exports per month in June. Exports make up 20% of China's GDP. China is challenging German companies in their home markets in Europe. Domestic sales of cars are down 16% in June. What this means is that China's growth now depends on exports alone, with construction slowdown, and weak consumer spending. How does this tie into China's posture in trade with the US? It negotiated from a position of strength on rare earths not to give in to DJT tariffs yet knows the importance of trade for the Chinese economic model, importance of US and EU markets, markets worldwide. China's strategy is to shift some of the lost US sales due to tariffs to other countries in Latin America and Asia. A top priority is to keep trade with the US and European Union on a good footing, so that its exports can be absorbed. How does it affect Hormuz? For China Hormuz as an oil source is much lower in importance and China can do without Iran, it absolutely cannot do without the US and European Union to take a big part of its exports. It also does not openly say this but it also shares concerns similar to the US, on nuclear weapons in Iran. India, Japan and the EU have similar concerns. As shown in the articles on this page China has large unused oil in reserves and coal supplies, has lower oil demand at 4% growth, and is accelerating renewable energy, so that it is now importing 8.5 million barrels a day down from 12.5 million barrels a day. By doing this China puts this oil back into the world supply leading to lower oil prices. This means the world can do without the supplies from Hormuz, keep lower oil prices, and go on as before if Hormuz remains closed. The US can focus on domestic issues and its involvement in the Middle East can be limited to naval blockade which the US Navy is capable of doing. This is good for China, good for the US, and good for the World. Local governments in China, provincial authorites, pushed growth in building road, bridges, factories during the 30 year growth phase 1990-2020. In 2026 local governments with debt loads and lack of good projects for investment are a bottleneck to growth. This is the first time fixed investment is in decline, except for the years in 1961 and in 1967. The year 1961 is a result of many mistakes made by chairman of CCP, Mao, by shifting 2 million in farm labour to work in iron foundries, and the shift from private farm plots to soviet style commune farms, coupled with floods leading to 43-46 million famine deaths (1994, Chen Yizi, top advisor to CCP General Secretary Zhao Zhiyang). 1967 is the chaotic situation of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution launched by Mao. What it shows is that the China Miracle like the Japan Miracle and the German Miracle of recovery after World War II, is based on certain conditions and will enter a phase of lower growth closer to 3% like other industrialized nations over time. India and Indonesia are larger than China and will be the next growth story, which is also shown on these pages this week, with the address to the Indonesian parliament by Modi, and Indonesian president Prabovo's saying that he has studied Modi's economic changes and is copying them as there is no copyright. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
If Labour had defended the working class and if Conservatives had acted responsibly in the public interest Britain would have been much better off. Britain's economy and standard of living has suffered from the long drawn out austerity years under the Tories followed by the Brexit issue raised by the Tories. Behind Brexit were Nigel Farage of the Reform party and Boris Johnson of the Tories. Nigel Farage was brought out of retirement by the lack of effective leadership of Labour under Starmer even after winning a majority in parliament for Labour. Andy Burnham is trying to put Britain's house in order coming in as the man from the North, Mayor of the Manchester region. He has served in positions including at Treasury under Blair and Brown. Compared to every prome minister of the last three decades he brings both the experience and the knowledge of how to implement efforts to improve public services from experiments done in the Manchester region that he can use for the whole of Britain in transportation, infrastructure, delivery of water, electricity, and other essential services in a better way than the privatized companies of the Tories. He pushed back against Reform's revival in the Makerfield by-election. And it is crucial for Britain's economic future that it not waste more years like it did under Cameron and Johnson with a extension under Reform that only delays Britain's economic recovery. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China is in isolation and in a freeze in ways that are unprecedented, that have never happened before. It has depressed world trade, disrupted supply chains of world trade, forced companies to restrict their employees movement, or bring them back home. Apple with 10,000 employees has closed operations and offices in China till Feb. 9. This is happening for many foreign companies in China as they deal with something they have never encountered before.  There is slowing down in demand fro crude oil as the lockdown affects the economy of China and world trade, Oil prices dropped 16% since the virus was detected. When the Sars virus happened in 2003 the Chinese economy was sixth in size in the world, now it is the second largest. At that time 7 million Chinese travelled abroad, today it is about 150 million, affecting international tourism. First quarter growth in China is now forecast by economists surveyed by WSJ at 4.9%, the lowest in decades. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A relatively minor situation a mobile phone she reported stolen that was found in 2013 led to her being removed as the youngest cabinet member as Minister for Transport in just 4 months in 2024. Before that she was Shadow Minister for Transport under Starmer. In those 4 months she ended a train drivers strike with a 14% pay raise over 3 years. She was elected as MP for Sheffield in 2015 at the age of 27 years having worked under senior MP Lisa Nandy. Educated at a private school in Sheffield, and studying at London School of Economics before switching to Nottingham University to study politics, there is something unusual about Louise Haigh in the way she handled the firing in just 4 months for what was something inconsequential like reporting a mobile as lost, without any additional information from Starmer's administration. She did not let it affect her in the least, moving to work in the Labour parliamentary backbenches and rebuilding the Tribune Group to discuss ideas for solving problems in UK transport, health, inequalities, lack of investment. She had already come to know Metro mayors in UK as Shadow Transport Minister, including Burnham at Manchester. From that time in 2024 to 2026 may be considered one of the most transformative period of any English MP in modern history. Louise Haigh, and Lucy Powell MP and deputy leader of the Labour party who was also demoted by Starmer, worked together in the backbenches in a revolt against the welfare cuts made by chancellor Rachel Reeves that gradually destroyed the credibility of Starmer with the backbenches of the Labour party and the British working class. By the time of the controversy surrounding Starmer's chief of staff, a young man Morgan McSweeney, who had little experience except in organizing Labour primarily against Jeremy Corbyn to bring back Blair's diluted version of Labour -which had lost relevance after Conservatives failed to deliver much beyond decades of austerity years for Britain. Labour had to find a good voice and a plan, and quickly as the 2 years of Starmer led to Reform UK coming back to challenge Labour, winning big in local elections. This is where Louise Haigh and Lucy Powell come in. Louise Haigh was going to have none of it. She realized that Andy Burnham was the leader who could take Labour to heights that it had not seen since in post war period after 1945. That conviction led her to run the Makerfield election campaign for Burnham to get a seat in parliament and challenge Starmer for leadership of Labour. Without Louise Haigh and Lucy Powell, who is now Education Secretary and Deputy leader of Labour Party, Burnham may well not be the Prime Minister today. Haigh says this BBC Report wrote 2 Essays articulating the fight against a stagnant economy.  Where Rachel Reeves stuck to no longer relevant debt rules for a bold plan out of the economic mess, Haigh called for a significant loosening of Labour's debt rules, with the rolling five-year debt target extended to over 10 years as a start, bold investments, and a call to "re-examine the mandate" of the Bank of England so that the focus would be on growth and reviving Britain. Haigh supported Burnham for a new tax on the value of land to replace stamp duty on house purchases. "The status quo is not sustainable. We cannot afford to wait any longer before we change the system we inherited." It is this boldness that has led to Louis Haigh being put in charge of the newly created Office of the Prime Minister and the Cabinet, "the main driver for the British economy." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
One of the Russia's goals was to form a rival economic bloc of former soviet republics. Instead the Ukraine invasion has led to disastrous results for the economies of this region which are interconnected. Research from the World Bank shows the Russian economy declining by 11% and with further economic impact upto 25%, Ukraine's economy by 45%, former soviet republics like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz Republic, by 30% because of loss of remittances and the fallout from the economic effects on Russia. Belarus would see its economy shrink by 30%, Moldova by 30%, according to the World Bank. 

The miscalculations of all sides from leadership in Russia to that of Merkel in Germany, and the invasion itself, is putting severe economic losses on this part of Europe. Many of these economies will have to take loans from the IMF and the World Bank to remain solvent. 

 

LyrArc Article Gist
The effect of the lockdown on hundreds of millions of workers in the informal economy in the developing world.

LyrArc Article Gist
Abrams and De Acosta, Bellman of the WSJ look at growth and modernization in India in comparison with China and other countries. GDP per capita would take 10 years to reach the stage at which spending power of the people equals that in China today. At one point in 1980 China and South Korea were closer in GDP per capita than India. It is only now that India is accelerating towards the scale and depth of modernization done in China.  India's growth rate of over 7% is likely to surge after some of the problems in bad loans in the banking sector are cleared up. A wave of technological advances would help accelerate growth. Ease of doing business and foreign investment are on upward trend, for absorbing new technology from advanced countries. A shift to very low prices for data use with rapid development of 4G services is one of the recent achievements. Manufacturing growth remains a challenge to be tackled to create the jobs needed.  Revamping tax structures such as GST and shifting the economy towards use of electronic cash has increased revenues needed to invest in infrastructure, health and education.  As much of the potential for future growth comes from people at the lower income levels, improving social indicators such as sanitation, cleanliness, farmer incomes, universal bank accounts, universal access to health care, are steps that lay the foundation for the future. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ looks at Elizabeth Warren's Medicare for All plan that marks a major shift for the U.S. economy.  Households would see their costs go down by $11 trillion, boosting their ability to spend on other goods and services. Because income and wealth was highly skewed in the past three decades in one direction, the spending capacity of lower and middle income households was pushed down. This and other similar plans would help restore a higher level of spending and with it an essential element of inflation of 2-3% to the U.S. economy which was missing in the last decade. This sets the tone for the kind of broad based recovery that happened after 1950 that strengthened America's middle class and made it the core of the economy, the core of the post World War II recovery in America and Europe. The plan would be paid for by higher taxes on corporations, tax rate of 21% for corporations going back up to 35%, and reverse depreciation schedules in the 2017 Republican tax law. The argument that this would reduce business investment does not hold that much says the WSJ because amid new trade tensions business investment has declined over the last 2 quarters, and has been sluggish overall. The other source for the estimated $13 to $20 trillion cost of Medicare for All plan of Elizabeth Warren is a 6% annual wealth tax on billionaires, in an attempt to have all pay their fair share and reduce wide disparities in wealth. Mark Zandl, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, says his sense is at the end of the day from a macroeconomic view- because $11 trillion in the hands of 80% of households who could boost spending after lagging behind in the last decade- the negative effect on business investment will be cancelled out by the higher consumer spending. The overall effect and today's context is infused in this analysis. Private insurance, premiums for insurance, and out of pocket cost that the public pays would disappear in this new system where all health payments pass through the government. Health insurance premiums paid by employers would convert into a new employer Medicare contribution to the government starting at an amount employers pay now and adjusting gradually toward national averages over time. Smallest businesses are exempted. Mr. Zandl says the most important aspect of this now is that Mrs Warren has shown that her plan's revenue sources match the cost so that the plan would not lead to deficits increasing and pushing interest rates higher, leading to negative effects on the economy. Republicans under Mr. Trump have paid little attention to expanded deficits caused by their tax law, and economists across the landscape have also shown less concern. Still attacks are made if the plans don't add up. For this reason a sound assessment in today's context of depressed consumers and an overall impact becomes essential. The WSJ quotes from a pre- assessment of Warren's plan by Simon Johnson, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist who co-wrote it with Mr. Zandl and Betsey Stevenson of the University of Michigan. What they point out is that putting cash in the pockets of the lower and middle class for spending makes a lot of sense today, and taking money out of the pockets at the way upper wealthy end,  does not contract the economy at all. Other effects they say are constructive by letting all workers get health coverage from the government instead of employers, this makes it easier to change jobs increasing labor mobility and productivity. A worker getting a better job and better utilization of skills could then shift without looking at the employer health care plan. Warren says there would be a five year transition so that workers in health care insurance industry can work in other insurance fields and in Medicare, no one would be left behind. The important thing being to build America's middle class again. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
 Donald trumps economic plan would worsen the country's economy through extravagant borrowing and lower economic growth in the long run. Because it lowers taxes by 15 percent without any paired cuts Trump's plan would worsen the deficit, so that large debt would hurt the economy in the long run. Clinton's plan would increase taxes by 4  percent largely on high incomes so as not to hurt consumer spending, with paired spending to help lower income households. Because Trump's tax cuts benefits go disproportionately to higher incomes the benefits in terms of consumer spending are slight or insignificant. In the current state of weak income gains of the last ten years it would take some time for the middle and working class to recover. Clinton's plan carefully nudges that recovery forward without aggravating the debt, so that as incomes and net worth recovers across broad parts of the population, the U.S. is poised to go forward with strong growth as in the postwar years. Trump's plan frontloads tax benefits to higher incomes at the expense of worsening debt and enlarging future debt. In the process it worsens income disparities already aggravated by the 2008 financial crisis. Reducing the chances of a broad based recovery for all parts of the population, necessary for a strong recovery.                       ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Fears that another crisis like that of 2008 could emerge with asset bubbles in China and other countries. Also fears that policies of austerity in southern Europe and the UK, combined with Germany's tight control on spending, could lead Europe to years of slow growth or stagnation. It is a tricky situation especially in Europe, trying to avoid a Greece type situation, and at the same time not cutting spending to the point where it would lead to stagnation. Criticism of the German government's policy to cut spending and fears that the European Central Bank might follow Germany's policy to focus purely on the deficit. Lower US bond yields give the US some room for dealing with the deficit. The need for swift action in China to move the economy towards domestic consumption, and let the yuan strengthen so that China can absorb more of the world's exports.

LyrArc Article Gist
Faced with the prospects of severe hardship in poorer countries, the World Bank gives a realistic forecast for 2009 that shows the world economy shrinking in 2009. It says the neeeds of poorer countries are likely to overwhelm what the IMF and the World Bank can do. And called for seting up a"vulnerability fund". Even if the World Bank tripled its lending in 2009, it would only reach $35 billion. The combined gap the emerging market countries face it says, is at least $270 billion and upto $700 billion in the next 2 years.