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Saudi Vision 2030 goals scaled back in 2026 as Saudis and UAE face missile attacks on oil facilities and pipelines. Saudis and UAE, Iraq are working on building new pipelines on east west coasts to bypass Hormuz Straits. Oil could go through to Turkey or Jordan. 

Another key development is the realization in India, China and European Union that renewable energy goals need to be accelerated. This is a positive development coming out of this crisis and will shift the energy equation entirely out of the Middle East. At the same time it reduces the impact of climate change, accelerates the development of renewables technologies.

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  US reaches agreement that would restore oil supplies and bring down oil prices. The supply chains may have to be reconstituted for replacing much of the 20% of the oil that flows through Hormuz if the US, Europe,China and India, Japan, rest of the world are to gain from this experience. The only way to understand the change of mind of the DJT US government and the Saudis/UAE/Qatar for bringing an end to the war without immediately fulfilling required nuclear conditions is from the Saudi point of view it has sought to avoid damage to its oil facilities from Iranian drone and missile attacks. From the US point of view it may see that the US + ramped up Venezuelan production by 2027-2028 with increased push for supplies in other parts of the world with better security than Hormuz, could make up for most of the loss in supply from Hormuz. For the remainder acceleration of the renewal energy in Europe and in China, India could reduce dependence on oil from Saudis/Iran.  US Energy Information Administration forecast is for oil prices currently $103 for Brent crude oil to stabilize at $89 at the end of 2026 and $79 in 2027. The year started in 2026 at $60 per barrel. The UAE oil agency ADNOC says it would take 4 months to get 80% of production back on stream and full flows by 1st quarter 2027. Rystad Energy estimates repair and restoration at oil facilities to cost $58 billion. The MAGA base which opposed wars by Bush and Obama in the region would then look at it this way. The billions that Obama poured into Iran for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program would not happen again, as the US would continue its sanctions till all nuclear materials are removed from Iran. Iran would stall in negotiations that are now put off with only a Memorandum to show for commitment of Iran- though an agreement would only be a piece of paper that Iran may not implement as the failed Obama agreement showed- but yet not have the billions of dollars to support its nuclear program. It would give the US, Israel, and the world 10-15 years in which to respond to another nuclear program by Iran. Iran will need $270 billion to repair the damage to industrial facilities, which shows the cost of the war for the Iranian people just to get a nuclear weapon is prohibitive, considering that the Iranian economy was already in trouble before the war. Inflation and the overall economy will be in difficult shape for many years. Public sentiment in Iran may change the future course of Iran away from the course currently pursued. The entire Middle East  region has not benefitted from its dependence on oil. For the rest of the world finding alternative sources of supply is the best way and EU, China, India should accelerate renewable technologies and goals for energy independence shortening the transition from fossil fuels. ...

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DJT and Xi of China agree that Hormuz Straits should not be controlled by Iran, and no tolls for passage through Hormuz on ships to be paid to Iran. Thedse are points of agreement with China at the summit between Xi and DJT in Beijing  May 14 2026. It is certain that Xi of China is also for no proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East. China has to manage relations in the Middle East by considering the Arab  states of North Africa with whom it has good relations and their point of view- these countries are- Egypt, Moroccco, Tunisia, Algeria, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia. China gets its oil from both Iran and these Arab states. In a larger sense both the US and China are looking for alternative sources of oil after this episode of conflict in the Middle East one of a long series of events since the 1970's for 5 decades.  China and the US, India, EU are looking at this episode as a point from where a new renewed effort is being launched to replace fossil with renewable energy, be able to generate more GNP with fewer oil and energy resources. ...

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Mediators Pakistan, Turkey sought to separate Iranian nuclear issue to a second stage with a vague Iranian commitment to discuss the issue and future dragging of feet by Iran. The US DJT administration has made this the only issue that must be settled first before a settlement can be reached, and not by a repeat of the half hearted effort by the Obama administration that led to reconstituting Iran's nuclear effort a second time with US financial assistance. For a day on Saturday it appeared that mediators Pakistan and Turkey had accomplished for Iran just that, to the alarm of Republicans in general and in particular senior Senator Graham. Many sections of the media including the WSJ and the business community, see this as a repetition of the mistakes made by Obama and his administration. Not only did Obama not act to work with Republicans on a border policy- simply protecting himself from Republican attack by deportation policies. Obama continued the war in Afghanistan/Iraq for the same reason to protect his chances for reelection. He also used immigration policy to get the Hispanic vote in the closing months of the reelection year. Obama's other foreign policy failure was in believing Iran had been persuaded to give up nuclear weapons, and gave Iran the financial backing that could easily be shifted from economic to military uses and rebuild the nuclear program,  which he has handed to a future Republican adminstration. Obama also ignored how this would affect the economic wellbeing of the Iranian people with the kind of protests and suppression that has happened in 2026. Democrats and the media, some Republicans, are simply ignoring these errors and have never really faced up to the problems in the Middle East and asked the question why there are 5 decades of wars in the Middle East, and coups, strife, wars for the entire period since 1950. In this situation the US, China, India, EU, Brazil and other nations can learn from this experience and act to secure alternative sources of energy, speed up renewable energy transition, and rapidly end all dependence/intervention on a perpetually strife ridden Middle East, which much of the US and international media in a baffling way ignores or does not say outright. ...

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The Modi administration's plans for clean solar energy and renewable energy production to reach 220 gigawatts by 2022, nearly doubling the capacity in 2 years from 135 gigawatts today. The message was conveyed at the inaugural address for the recent World Solar Technology Summit by the prime minister. The premier said that ISA is part of the "One World, One Sun, One Grid" project, which would be transformational for humanity.

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Bhupinder Bhalla, the Secretary, Ministry for Renewable Energy in India, talks to The Hindu's Jacob Koshy about India's plans for solar panel manufacturing. He says a key bottleneck is reliance on Chinese made components such as poly-silicone wafers. Manufacturing these components in India is key for the health of the solar ecosystem in India. Once this is established- and Bhalla goes over the action being taken- India will be able to export solar panels by 2026. He expects 40GW to be fully commissioned in the next 2 years.

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What is California's position in nuclear and renewables and does the substance the facts justify the image it promotes of being energy friendly and using renewables? Answer is NO  because only 9% of its total end use energy consumption according to EIA figures (2023) comes from renewables. It uses no coal yet about 60% of its energy is from crude oil. During the current crisis in the war with Iran is California an example to follow? The answer is No because it has not used renewable energy the way Germany has or EU has, and it has not managed its crude oil well by not using domestic crude oil instead relying on imports, which only burden the global needs for crude oil coming from a state with capacity to do lot better. By comparison Germany gets 23% of its total energy consumption from renewables compared to 9% for California, and for Germany 60% of its total electricity production is from renewables compared to 46% for California. EIA data shown here from US government data does not paint a very energy friendly picture. California's imports of crude oil at 75% of consumption and drop in refineries from 48 to 3 shows it has not managed the oil refining side of energy in the best way possible. How does it rate in making good use of energy? Here it uses 174 million BTU's per capita no different than New York at 174 and about the same as Florida and Washington DC, Massachusetts, Maryland.  And Germany has achieved 122 million BTU per capita showing California far behind. How does it rate in using renewables and nuclear? As it is a state with urban and suburban sprawl with large driving distances it uses a lot of crude oil for transportation. Petroleum or crude oil use is 58% of total energy use, Natural gas 25, Renewables are only 3%, electricity generation is 14% of which only 46% is from renewables. California is NOT the model for the US. We have to look elsewhere for answers.   ...

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Impact of Iran War on European economy- Germany's growth 1.3% and 1.7% growth in 2026 and 2027 down to 0.6% and 0.9%.  With inflation at 2.8% and 2.9% from 2.0% and 2.3%. This is the consensus of all forecasts including Ifo Institute and Kiel Institute, which also see prices coming down in the second half, the Iran war impact mostly first half only. Clearly Germany will be able to ride out the Iran crisis and oil at $120 in April 2026. A big part of this is that there is a trillion dollars in investment that Germany's Merz has initiated and this makes a huge difference. France is self sufficient in energy with its reliance on nuclear energy. Germany imports only 6% of its energy from the Hormuz straits which means supplies will be available just that prices will be higher. Germany also can accelerate its renewable energy shift which would pay dividends in the future. Germany also practices conservation of energy better than most countries, similar to Japan, getting the same GNP with lower and lower energy needs. If the US were to do what Germany and Japan have done in energy conservation there would be no need for Hormuz, US could supply Japan with energy. ...

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It might not all make sense that the Pakistan/China mediated ceasefire conditions (including US and Israeli condition of no nuclear weapons development and ballistic missile development) are really not known even in the media today, only known to the Iranian government and the US government. In these conditions Iran's government gets to show that it had achieved its goals, even with enormous reconstruction costs of the damage done during the war. DJT had pointed to a sort of regime change in Iran after most of the earlier leadership has been removed, and new leaders in place who are keen on setting up conditions for their own administration replacing the old one.  Over the period 2027-2030 the prospect is real that China, India and Japan may shift their oil supplies sources to other regions, increase conservation per unit of GDP, and increase supplies of renewable energy, steps already taken by Germany over the last decade. Most media looks only what happens today and in 2026. This may be the last of the Middle East Wars before Europe and the US, and India, China, Japan shift away from the Middle East to get supplies of fossil fuels, and it may bring new renewables technologies that reduce the dependence on fossil fuels to the point of making a true transition to renewable energy. It may also be the last of the Middle East Wars in the sense that people of European nations and the US insist on no involvement in MIddle East as a sort of quagmire for squandering American, European and Asian vital resources of people and capital, ample example being given over the last 40 years. Considering the costs of the war and the moral cost of destroying infrastructure such as power plants that hurt the local population more than the regime in power, China, Japan, the US, and EU, India may find it is easier to race each other in coming up with alternative supplies and shifting to renewable energy faster than planned, making Middle Eastern oil supplies  and volatility in prices redundant, which would be a good thing after the hugely negative and costly experience of the last 50 years of dependence.     ...

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Prof. Patrice Geoffron of Universite Paris-Dauphine writes in Le Monde what is on everyone's minds- on how oil geopolitics and fossil fuel price volatility and price uncertainty what he calls fossil fuel chaos, is creating a new demand for renewable energy in Europe in 2027 to 2031. Business and industry in Europe see the value of renewable energy not in comparison with low fossil fuel prices anymore but with a fossil fuel price that can jump at any time to the $100 a barrel for some geopolitical event. Compared to this fossil chaos European business and industry can depend on a known price and known conditions for solar energy. The same thinking will be going on in business in Asia- in China and established leader in solar, in India an aspiring solar power, and in Japan. Modular nuclear reactors are also a new way to go. This means even under DJT with his skepticism for renewables the technology and production of renewables will continue and pick up pace. People will also ask whether its worth all the trouble to get fossil fuel supplies at levels that make no sense through waters of Hormuz straits- China and Jpan getting a makes no sense 90% of their imports from Hormuz, and India nearly 50%. Their are moral considerations also whether a morally conscious China, Japan and India, South Korea with much of the industrial base in the world can justify missile attacks on the scale of tens of thousands in the region and bombing just to clear Hormuz. ...

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At a glance see on a world map with colors which countries have accomplished the transition to renewable so as not to get caught in the quagmire of the Middle East for oil supplies- most of Europe has done very well, and the laggards- Asia from China and India that are making an effort to Japan which has a poor dismal record. Brazil Uruguay 90% Denmark 80% Canada 66% Germany Spain and Finland 50% UK 46% Italy 42%  France 27%- share of renewables in electricity production (2023). This means much of the world is not dependent on volatile energy supplies from the Middle East. It is only in China, India, Japan, South Korea that dependence is high on Middle East. And in China and India this is the time to focus again on renewables. Most baffling is Japan with only 23% and it is the country that has so much of its supplies flowing through the Persian Gulf volatile oil lane- when Europe has moved on and accomplished the task of avoiding volatile Gulf region.

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This report in DW.com presents a situation where supply of oil runs out as demand way exceeds supply as shale oils in US are depleted, and no new reserves are found. A story in WSJ last week reports that the salty water from shale oil extraction is injected back into reservoirs at a rate that creates serious problems in the Permian Basian of the US including East Texas. The IEA forecast in 2026 shows about 97 million b/d of production and demand slightly exceeding this in both 2030 and 2050 which would suggest defossilization has not taken place. Yet the US pullout from defossilization under DJT is sure to be reversed by future governments in as short as 3 years, and the current DJT policy is simply a response to the cost of living concerns of the majority of Americans. The scenario that fossil fuels will be required forever is promoted by the oil companies and by OPEC+ including Russia. But this situation will reverse as the cost of living crisis and the low wages and incomes, loss of factory jobs, low savings, health care inflation, is tackled under the DJT administration and the US economy becomes stronger with lower inflation.  This scenario of  steady oil demand can be reversed if China and India and Europe push ahead with renewable energy and technological change as is happening today, and will not be seriously impacted when the US joins the battle with its renewable energy push in 2028. This is not just an optimistic scenario, it is a balanced one as private industry in the US will sense this and move ahead with development of new technologies for renewable energy so as not to fall behind and to pioneer on their own. That is the history of innovation in the US for the last 100 years and will not change. ...

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Merz visit to India to strengthen trade defense ties Jan 2026. Oter areas of cooperation are digital technology and renewable energy. Merz attends the Kite Festival in Ahmedabad, Gujarat state, and the Sabarmati Ashram of Gandhiji.

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Rugged hilly coast and shallow narrow straits - problems for Straits of Hormuz shipping is shown in the NYT following similar reports in WSJ. It will cost $200 billion for the munitions supplies and interceptors, and US naval operations, French naval operations to keep the Straits of Hormuz open, which is supported by US business as is seen in opinion in Editorial Board of WSJ on March 24, 2026. The Straits are a lifeline for Asia until renewable energy and alternative supplies of oil make the Straits history and a redundant proposition, which will be sooner than later after this episode, one too many more from the Middle East. More likely by 2030-2035. China and Japan depend on it for 90% of imports, and India 50% with alternative supplies provided for India from the US and Russia. Germany is only dependent on the Straits for 6% of its imports showing how far Germany has come and how important renewables and alternative sources of oil such as Venezuela will become in the time ahead, in a two pronged strategy that does not forget the challenges posed by climate from fires and floods. Were not stuck with the Straits- Japan and China can and will find alternative sources and increase production of renewable energy in the way Germany has done to get to 6% of imports from that region. ...

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Has the world missed opportunities for progress in renewables? The 2022 Global Renewable Report by REN21 international policy network answers this question. The renewables accounted for 20% of world's energy use in 2011. In 2021 it advanced only 8 percentage points to 28% over 10 years. This is important because use of coal, oil and gas increased by 4% and carbon emissions by 6% in 2021 with the end of lockdowns from the pandemic and increased energy consumption, according to International Energy Agency.

Something is wrong also in the capital going into subsidies to reduce prices of oil and gas which are $18 trillion for 2018 to 2020, $5.9 trillion in 2020 alone. Compare this with the $366 billion invested in renewables in 2021 and one can see the huge dimensions of the problem facing the world, this planet Earth that we live in.

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EU chief Von der Leyen says- "phasing out of nuclear energy was a strategic mistake,"  at Second Nuclear Energy Conference in Paris, March 10 2026. As the war with Iran rages over nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles development in the first week of March 2026, Macron opens the Second civilian Nuclear Energy Conference in Paris. France is the only nation that gets most of its energy from nuclear reactors- 70% from 58 nuclear reactors. And $9 billion in nuclear energy exports. With renewables and hydropower France as the lowest carbon grid in the world. Leyen of the EU says "This reduction ‌in the share of nuclear was a choice, I believe that it was a strategic mistake for Europe to turn its back on a reliable, affordable source of low-emissions power." "For fossil fuels, we are completely dependent on expensive and volatile imports. They are putting us at a structural disadvantage to other regions."  ...

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A tipping point happens when a small push can create a large outcome. Energy experts say we are at tipping points for renewable energy because cost of renewables solar and wind plants is now lower than fossil fuel new plants. Another tipping point is when new renewable energy plants have less cost than old fossil fuel plants. Another tipping point is when storage and production of renewables cost less than new fossil fuel plants. The first is already here and the second and third points are being reached in 2023 and 2024. Another tipping point is the confidence point and this is when it is no longer necessary to use fossil fuels because the costs are just too high. Once this is reached renewables are the first choice around the world. The world is now reaching this confidence point. Germany's Energy and Economy Minister Habeck says Germany will be 80% on renewable energy by 2030.

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IEA Director Fatih Birol says conservation of energy plans should be undertaken by all nations. He says Gulf countries and Saudi oil output will not be the same even when the war ends and the shipping lanes in the Hormuz Straits will not be handling the volumes of 100 ships that passed through the sea channel before the Iran War. Yet he says the best solution is for opening the Straits of Hormuz. This raises some serious questions about depending on the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf for oil supplies in 2027 and beyond. Can conservation, new sources of oil, acceleration of renewable energy use and electric car technologies lead to making the Middle East oil supplies becoming redundant, doing without this supply or turning it into a marginal source which would lower oil prices even further to the $50 level? Energy use decline for the same or higher GDP levels have potential in the US, China and India. Japan and Germany have cut energy use by about 50% in Japan and 35% in Germany with slightly higher Real GDP levels than 1996 in Japan and a 50% increase in Germany over a 30 year period( using 2015 as base year).  Major renewable energy gains have been made in the last 10 years with solar and wind technologies and electric car technologies. Much of the gains in electric car technologies lies ahead and this would cut crude oil significantly for cars and trucks which makes up 60-70% of oil use. Add to this conservation technologies. Other sources of oil can be found. And Venezuelan, Alaskan oil can be ramped up to replace volatile sources from the Middle East.  ...

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After energy shortages in 2021 the Chinese government decided to increase coal power projects. In 2023 these coal power projects are increasingly seen as backup sources of power with rapid increases in the production of renewable solar, wind and nuclear energy. China has nearly reached the point where half its energy is coming from renewable energy sources. Coal power companies are not profitable compared to renewable power companies. The result is that China's total emissions of carbon are declined in 2022 by 1.5%. China's power demand is growing by 6% each year, yet more of the increase in demand is being met through renewable energy expansion with coal being set as a backup source. Soon many of the power projects started after 2021 may be cancelled because they are losing money.

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Indian prime minister Modi tells RE Invest 2020, that India has almost tripled renewable energy production including solar and wind energy in 6 years, and is now the 4th largest renewable energy producer in the world. India is also now the fastest growing renewable energy producer in the world. He says India made investments in renewable energy early even when it was not the most cost effective source of energy. Through its scale and new technology, manufacturing advances, India is now in a position to show that renewable energy is sound economics. Since 2017 renewables exceed coal as a source of energy, making up 36% of energy production today.

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Media pays little attention to the costs of intermittent wars 1970 to 2026 and lost opportunities for economic development and modernization of a whole range of countries in the Middle East from the area around Egypt, and North Africa including Libya, Sudan, the region around Arab part of the Ottoman Empire of Iraq, Syria, the region stretching from Iran to the Gulf, Pakistan and Afghanistan. As Asia advances in modernization this area and the areas in parts of Latin America that are affected by "drug states" within states are severely impacted. Even the oil dividend is time bound as it lapses in the Middle East with the transition to renewable energy that is only likely to accelerate between 2026-2035. It reflects a series of poor choices by a whole generation of leaders in these regions.

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Iran Proposal that asks $2 million per ship to be split with Oman for opening the Hormuz Straits- April 6 2026. China, Japan can pay this amount to get the 90% of the oil they need from Hormuz, which would go to reconstruction of war damage in Iran. India would shift some of its purchase of oil and gas to the US and so will Japan over 2027-2028. This would result in a shift away from the Persian Gulf dependence to renewable energy and to buying oil and gas from US+Venezuela as more reliable sources. European Union and Britain would also make this shift as shown in the adjoining article by Prof Geoffron of Universite Paris Dauphine in Le Monde. The proposal also requires US and Israel to commit to no future attack on Iran, and Israel to stop its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US and DJT call the new regime under a Speaker of the Iranian parliament, an elected president who had to respond to people sentiment in the election, and a grandson of Khomeini, one that is easier to talk with than the earlier regime. The problem remains nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles development that the US has as its sole objective which is what the war is about than Hormuz as the US and DJT say Hormuz is China and Japan's problem where for some strange reason these industrial powers import 90% of their oil from Hormuz and have done this after 40 years of disruptions, a mystery they can solve on their own. ...

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From 2007 to 2022 US electricity demand flattened with new energy efficient technologies. It is now poised to increase from 2022 to 2035 and the process is happening  with approval of new natural gas plants and new data centers, new manufacturing plants needing large amounts of renewable energy. This say Plumer and Popovich in NYT could very well upset president Biden's plans to get 100% of energy from renewables by 2035 and cut greenhouse gas emissions by half to tackle climate change. Utilities are moving ahead with putting up new natural gas plants, and new data centers are needed for the shift to remote work since 2020, electric automobile and chip making plants are coming up at a rapid pace. Without a sustained effort the climate change action needed may not take place with the long lead times to bring renewable solar, wind and other energy and put it in place for transmission. This report looks at the data centers coming up in Virginia and the EV manufacturing plants in Georgia as examples for the new demand and how it could upset plans for climate change action. ...

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Wind and solar tax credits to phase out end of 2027 instead of 2032 under Senate version of US Tax Cuts Bill. This gives less time for renewable projects in solar and wind to get these tax credits and places them in a difficult situation. Senator Tillis of North Carolina who voted against the bill plans not to run again. The 3B Tax Cuts Bill is being considered in Congress this weekend to be placed on president's desk before July 4th weekend. The generous subsidies of the Biden administration are being questioned by the new Energy Secretary Chris Wright.