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Internal Bank of England data showing Britain inside European Union 6-8% higher GDP and 75 billion pounds of higher exports of goods in 2025. This is the only objective assessment one can accept in judging what would be best for British workers and their families.  Also lost on the 2014 -2016 period that led to referendum on Brexit in 2016 just three years later is that it came after the 2009-2011 period for recovery from the financial crisis, the first entry of Conservatives and sharp austerity cuts in public spending by 2012, and the period of Covid that followed just 3 years after 2016 in 2019. The process of improving productivity and increasing competitiveness that could have happened, is a cost Britain suffered from Brexit becoming topic No.1, skewing priorities from reindustrializing to debate on a non priority item Brexit- with a lost decade as a result in addition to the 8% of GDP and 75 billion pounds that could add to these numbers. In this way UK lost about 10% of its GDP and 100 billion pounds of exports that without the that  additional public investment  did not happen from 2009 financial crisis, from Brexit divisiveness, followed by Covid. The result is 1.5% growth in GDP in UK compared to closer to 3% in the US. The lower growth alone can mean additional losses in exports in 2025 than are seen in numbers, and additional losses in GDP. This is the economic weakness  that hangs over Britain as it tries out a new leader in 2026. Only a bold action plan under a bold leader can reverse this decline. As shown elsewhere on these pages in Lyrarc, this is why a new leader needs to articulate a bold and well thought out plan to execute with the support of the British people. Andy Burnham has the potential to make this happen starting in 2026 over the next 5-7 years. He has to build on the work he did in the Greater Manchester region, and like Modi in India applying the lessons learned in his home state of Gujarat, step by step, year by year, build the industrial and economic capacity of Britain by 2035. It is not a feat for the timid, struggles will abound, yet it can be done with one step following the previous step in a continuous stride. In fact Burnham can now work with India to add about 1% of GDP because of the close trading relationship and centuries long synergies with India to get closer to 3% growth in GDP per year. At that point public spending and investment would rise to propel further growth. It is in the interest of every sector in Britain to pull together, the same in India, to lift these two main countries of the Commonwealth by the bootstraps. ...

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UK Reform Party has taken large donations from cryptocurrency companies. Reform leader Nigel Farage has received a 5 million pound gift from a cryptocurrency firm. What does this mean for cryptocurrency regulation in the UK as a world financial center, if Reform wins a general election and appoints the next Governor of the Bank of England when Andrew Bailey retires in 2028. This is discussed in The Guardian. The banking system of the US, UK and large countries was set up over many years and currency is only issued by a central bank with the financial backing of the nation. Cryptocurrency cannot on the basis of technology take that role without posing risks and destabilizing the financial system. The gradual splitting of society by the information economy, neglect of infrastructure, pharmaceutical pricing, banking speculation as in 2009 crisis, have been eroding some of the basic structures of democracy for the last two decades from within.  The wars in the Middle East policies, and the open borders migration policies, were effects from outside. What this has led to is counter to what one would expect. To fight open borders and the marginalization of some parts of the working class DJT Republicans have used whatever resources were available at the time in the 2024 presidential election. The cryptocurrency firms used this in opportunistic fashion to affect regulation of this currency by supporting the reelection bid of DJT in 2024 by making large donations. This has led to less regulation of cryptocurrency firms. Is this in the best interests of the Nation? Will this destabilize the banking system in ways that have happened before in the deregulation of banks before the 2009 financial crisis? In Britain a new Bank of England governor will be appointed after Andrew Bailey's term expires in 2028. Reform party in UK if elected as government would appoint the next Governor of the Bank of England. Reform's growing popularity is a result of Conservatives and Labour failing to take action on open borders, asylum hotels, and migration policy, following an ECHR code of rights that is inappropriate to such migration. What this means is that unexpected things happen as a result. Cyrptocurrency risks of destabilizing the banking system increase as a result of failure of parties on migration. This could be more destabilizing for Britain because of its role as a financial centre than the industrialized  economies such as Germany, China, and industrializing economies such as India. It poses risks in the US yet Federal Reserve Governor Walsh can exercise his own judgement about cryptocurrency and Congress can exercise oversight, the large banks can act to show the risks of destabilizing that cryptocurrency can pose. For Britain it is particularly dangerous as the US is also an industrialized power compared to Britain's focus on finance alone. Andrew Bailey can ignore lobbying by Reform Party in 2026 (Farage met with the Governor of the Bank of England), yet what happens if Reform appoints the next Governor in 2028? These are questions Britain needs to ponder. It is also why Andy Burnham is Britain's last chance to get things right on migration to the point that the British people feel good and proud of their heritage and history, British neighborhoods across the country feel safe and secure, and Britain shifts to reindustrialize its economy with partners in China and India, the European Union, and the US. A former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Sir Charlie Bean told the BBC about donations of Christopher Harbonne, who has a 13% ownership interest in cryptocurrency firm,Tether. "Stablecoins are only stable if they have the appropriate regulatory environment… But there is right now an unsurprising regulatory race to the bottom amid the potential for greater profits." He added: "When funds are coming from major shareholders of such large financial institutions, there is a clear potential conflict of interest here, for example, in the appointment of a new Bank of England governor. Transparency is one solution." ...

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In 2025 Vienna a much smaller city built 3 times the home built in London. To reach the western European homes per capita London wold have to build 1.1 million new homes. In 2025 London set a target to build 88,000 homes- it actually built 4,170 homes. Population increased in 2025 by 100,000. One project after 4 years was delayed- local planning officers after 9000 pages of documentation did not approve it because tearing down 2 drab office buildings was "erasing an interesting period inindustrial history" in addition to saying it lacked detail. There just isn't the urgency to build homes and just too many reasons allowed to delay building. This leads to sky high prices dampening demand. Economic growth takes a big hit. This is holding back London and the whole country, an no one takes responsibility.

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A relatively minor situation, a mobile phone she reported stolen that was found in 2013, led to her being removed as the youngest cabinet member Minister for Transport in just 4 months in 2024. Before that she was Shadow Minister for Transport under Starmer. In those 4 months she ended a train drivers strike with a 14% pay raise over 3 years. She was elected as MP for Sheffield in 2015 at the age of 27 years having worked under senior MP Lisa Nandy. Educated at a private school in Sheffield, and studying at London School of Economics before switching to Nottingham University to study politics, there is something unusual about Louise Haigh in the way she handled the firing in just 4 months, for what was something inconsequential like reporting a mobile as lost, without any additional information from Starmer's administration. She did not let it affect her in the least, moving to work in the Labour parliamentary backbenches and rebuilding the Tribune Group to discuss ideas for solving problems in UK transport, health, inequalities, lack of investment. She had already come to know Metro mayors in UK as Shadow Transport Minister, including Burnham at Manchester. From that time in 2024 to 2026 may be considered one of the most transformative period of any English MP in modern history. Louise Haigh, and Lucy Powell MP and deputy leader of the Labour party who was also demoted by Starmer, worked together in the backbenches in a revolt against the welfare cuts made by chancellor Rachel Reeves that gradually destroyed the credibility of Starmer with the backbenches of the Labour party and the British working class. By the time of the controversy surrounding Starmer's chief of staff, a young man Morgan McSweeney, who had little experience except in organizing Labour primarily against Jeremy Corbyn to bring back Blair's diluted version of Labour -which had lost relevance after Conservatives failed to deliver much beyond decades of austerity years for Britain. Labour had to find a good voice and a plan, and quickly as the 2 years of Starmer led to Reform UK coming back to challenge Labour, winning big in local elections. This is where Louise Haigh and Lucy Powell come in. Louise Haigh was going to have none of it. She realized that Andy Burnham was the leader who could take Labour to heights that it had not seen since in post war period after 1945. That conviction led her to run the Makerfield election campaign for Burnham to get a seat in parliament and challenge Starmer for leadership of Labour. Without Louise Haigh and Lucy Powell, who is now Education Secretary and Deputy leader of Labour Party, Burnham may well not be the Prime Minister today. Haigh, says this BBC Report, wrote 2 Essays articulating the fight against a stagnant economy.  Where Rachel Reeves stuck to no longer relevant debt rules for a bold plan out of the economic mess, Haigh called for a significant loosening of Labour's debt rules, with the rolling five-year debt target extended to over 10 years as a start, bold investments, and a call to "re-examine the mandate" of the Bank of England so that the focus would be on growth and reviving Britain. Haigh supported Burnham for a new tax on the value of land to replace stamp duty on house purchases. "The status quo is not sustainable. We cannot afford to wait any longer before we change the system we inherited." It is this boldness that has led to Louise Haigh being put in charge of the newly created Office of the Prime Minister and the Cabinet, "the main driver for the British economy." ...

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"Saving America's Story" by the White House Domestic Policy Council - getting America's story told right and protecting its heritage and aspirational values, the issue the Nation faces in 2026. A new report "Saving America's Story" is issued by the administration as a result of an executive order DJT signed in March 2025.The report’s “central finding” - that “museum leadership has explicitly adopted an ideological framework that no longer treats the American story as a shared national inheritance to be taught or celebrated, but as a political instrument to divide, dispirit, and discourage our citizens.” “To the extent that there is a story told at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of American History, it is not one of ‘the victory of freedom and genius of our country’ but one of regret, tragedy, and shame." Why is this important- seen from the outside world the ideals set out in the Declaration of Independence are the best ideas of the Enlightenment in Europe, have inspired the French Revolution in the 1790's, have inspired billions of people in Asia, Africa and Latin America in 1800, in 1900, and in the 1950's in the fight against Colonialism of the European Empires, leading to billions of people and many nations gaining freedom. Washington, Jefferson, and Lincoln are not just the founding fathers of America but also in a way founding fathers of the principles that inspired these people and who created the Modern World we know today. ...

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Reeves and Lammy depart as Burnham chooses new cabinet Healey is new chancellor and Shabana continues as Home Secretary. Healey was Defense secretary under Starmer. It is important that he was in 1999 Parliamentary Private Secretary to Gordon Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer. In 2002 he was appointed Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and in 2005 Financial Secretary to the Treasury. In 2009 he was Minister of State for Housing and Planning. Shadow Secretary of Health in 2010 and 2016, Shadow Secretary for Defense under Starmer after supporting Starmer for leadership of the Labour Party. He was first elected to parliament in 1997 and had majorities of 50-70% in elections serving for 29 years in parliament. He is the right choice for Chancellor, or Finance Minister of the UK to work with Burnham on Labour's goals. Reeves was problematic from the beginning because she stuck to what people said could or could not be done, not able to think outside the box to get Labour to be itself and do what people wanted from Labour. In this way she set herself and the Labour party for failure by losing the very public that Labour had promised to help, with this public becoming indifferent to Labour, because in many ways it was Reeves's Labour not Starmer's. As Starmer, not much of an original thinker and little experience outside of law, followed Reeves economic theories borrowed from The City, Britain's version of Wall Street. Andy Burnham is right to choose someone who can think on his feet, no knowledge of economic theory required because orthodox economic theory has failed America, failed Britain, and created the mess of single supply chain concentrated in China in the first place with its theories of comparitive advantage. What is needed is someone who grasps and hold near his heart the aspirations of the British people, and hears their concerns everyday, not think tanks telling one what to do, and acting on these concerns in creative ways, thinking and improvising solutions along the way, not afraid to experiment. This is how FDR handled the economic difficulties of the 1930's, another period like today's when Wall Street theories had failed badly. This is also how China handled the economic collapse after Mao's death following the Cultural Revolution in 1984-1997. This is how Modi handled the economic difficulties in building a modern nation by experimentation in the western state of Gujarat in 2001-2014 without preconceived ideas and theories, keeping what worked and expanding on it.  Lammy was not the right choice for Deputy Prime Minister, and failed to provide leadership and focus the country's attention on the issues of migrants, asylum hotels, housing, rebuilding relations with the European Union, economic growth, neglect of the north of England and other deprived regions. No such position of Deputy prime minister can be filled in many situations. As Foreign Secretary there needed to be some one who could speak with a stronger voice for Britain with the European Union, the US, China, India, and be seen across the spectrum of views in Britain as an effective voice. ...

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This is the second time in the World Cup 2026 that Argentina came in with goals in the last minutes of the game. Three goals against Egypt and Salah, and now two goals in the closing minutes against England. In 2026 not until stoppage time is anything decided in a game, anything can happen. Argentina kept knocking at the England goal in the last 30 minutes including stoppage time relentlessly missing 4-5 opportunities till 2 passes from Messi hit the right spot for Hernandez and Martinez. It is not clear why the English team did not push offense and simply relied on a 1 goal lead to defend and hold on for the last 30 minutes. Offense can create opportunities and also run the clock. Instead coach Tuchel pulled out Rice and Stones some of his best players to defend, which is when the defense failed to keep off shots on the goal. Even Harry Kane was defending all the time and no players were up front on the Argentine side of the goal. At some point knowing the skill of the Argentines something was about to happen and it did. ...

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  US's womens socceer's Carli Lloyd, who led the US women's soccer team many times in her career, was honest and blunt on FOX television coverage of the 4-1 loss to Belgium in World Cup Soccer 2026. The host country failed to make it into the quarter finals after so much advertising on television, way too much not even good for the players. There is so much money on television ads and promotions that it must hurt the players and the game. Messi, Neymar, Vinicius Jr., Pulisic, and some Mexican players, were all put up as players who could do anything on television. In the end none of them did well, Messi almost in tears after Argentina was behind 2-0 for most of the 90 minutes against Egypt, only miraculously surviving. Brazil is out going down to Paraguay. Christiano Ronaldo, the first billionaire in soccer, was a little kid from a struggling family in Madeira, Portugal, and he too went out after failing to score on several passes, with Portugal's loss to Spain. All this may be a good thing and a learning lesson for the sport. For all those who love the sport and think things have gone overboard with television advertising,  with excessive brand sponsorship on television, making entertainment stars who knows to what purpose, but losing the best of the game of soccer in the process. And these are Carli Lloyd's comments (Carli who after 318 appearances and bringing so much joy to young girls for the sport worldwide has a net worth of $2 million compared to the now billionaires and others on the way to billions, or hundreds of millions, television stars of the sport who could not get their game right in World Cup Soccer 2026.) There are lessons for the sport which is the most popular sport not only in all the developed countries but also the poorest large countries on the planet like China, India, Brazil, Egypt. “I felt like they lost the game before they even stepped out on the pitch." “And I’m not sure why, and I don’t know the reasons. But just from the beginning: chasing. Tentative. Scared. Just not confident on the ball.”  "You wanted some of those big-time players to step up in big-time moments." “And I gotta be honest: I was a bit disappointed in Christian Pulisic. Whether he wants to be the star of this team or not, we didn’t see enough from him in this particular game — and, really, the whole World Cup. Little glimpses here and there.” ...

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These 2 steel plants date back to Scunthorpe 1861, and Port Talbot 1905, when they were first built, when Britain led the world's industrial revolution. The two plants were modernized in the 1950's. British Steel and Tata Steel Port Talbot only two remaining steel plants in UK- retaking the UK steel supply chain move taken Labour in July 2026 as Andy Burnham takes the premiership. British Steel was privatized in 1988. In Asia British Steel and US Steel were revered during the colonial period to the 1950's and 1960's. In the US and UK strangely economic theories took hold that did not see the importance of steel and other basic industries in the life of a nation and its people. About 40 years later the lessons of outsourcing your main supply chains has been learned at great cost to the US and the UK. Note that in today's WSJ an Exclusive report shows the success US steel has become with government help and American tariff protection agiainst dumped steel from China and India. US Steel has grown till it is now the third largest steelmaker in the world. The UK government is nationalizing Scunthorpe plant now given name British Steel under the Steel Industry Nationalization Act. UK has set aside 2.5 million pounds for subsidies to the Scunthorpe and Port Talbot plants for modernization of old pre-1960's plants. This is the right move, if US Steel is a success story with DJT tariffs and government support, British Steel will be a success story with the same kind of support. And contrary to bad economic theory purveyed by some economists the US and UK can now have their own modern steel industries and supply chains at home. ...

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Mary -Louise Parker in movie Young Washington 2026 as Washington's mother Mary Ball. Here she talks to Marc Myers of the WSJ about her childhood growing up as an Army officer's daughter in different bases before settling down in Arizona. Her fight with shyness till she over compensated. Her father's confidence in her and pointing to her the prospect of going to the North Carolina Institute of Arts, where she learnt the craft of acting. She moved to New York for different roles including one in "Weeds."  She is 61 years, and lives with 2 sons 19 years and 22 years, in a large apartment in Brooklyn that overlooks the water with views of sunsets which she enjoys. It was Mary Ball who told her son not to join the British Navy, wanting to keep him in America. Washington joined the British forces in North America after a career as a surveyor. Land and landholdings were important at the time and as a surveyor with important connections to prominent British families Washington built his career, and further enhanced it by joining the British forces against Indian raids and the French in the coveted Ohio territory. Where did Washington get his keen knowledge of history and the Enlightenment thinkers that enabled him to grasp the ideas of Jefferson? Washington was like the first Chief Justice Marshall in the same communities at the time in the Virginia colony. Both were mentored by a major British landowner who built a large library in the colony that both were able to go to and learn what they later used to start the struggle for a new Nation. It shows the importance of books and libraries, of knowledge during the Enlightenment period in shaping the minds of the Nation's founding fathers- Jefferson, Marshall, Washington, Madison, Samuel Adams and others. ...

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Iranian response to Memorandum of Understanding shows reality of 2 factions in Iran, the IRGC military faction, and the elected president Pezeshkian plus Turkey /Pakistan/Egypt and Qatar as the second faction. With IRGC military rejecting the Memorandum on opening Hormuz and discontinuing nuclear weapons programs. This was true at the time Vance conducted negotiations and the Memorandum appears to have been accepted by IRGC only under great pressure from Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar, and the faction under Iranian elected president Pezeshkian. Where IRGC thinking could have been to give  agreement to the Memorandum that they had no intention of keeping, as its policy on nuclear weapons remains unchanged, and its goal is to use Hormuz for leverage and extend its control of Hormuz channel. The cost of sanctions and not being able to export oil, the effect on its economy, on cost of living with rampant inflation, may be of little concern to the people who run the IRGC military who suppressed all dissent and protests in 2026. Protests across different parts of society to the deteriorating economy. How could the US respond? The US used the time of the ceasefire to create a new status quo by using open navigation of the seas as the principle behind opening and protecting the Omani side of the Hormuz for oil shipment. This is a principle accepted by all countries. There is a backup plan of the US, China, India, Japan and other countries and this is to prepare rapidly to do without Hormuz so that the economies of these nations are not affected. The US also supported efforts by Saudis and Kuwait, UAE, to increase oil exports through channels outside of Hormuz, UAE's decision to increase oil supplies and lower prices by leaving OPEC, and US creating alternative supplies for India through Venezuela. Most important is China's decision that it no longer needs the 5 million barrels of oil from Hormuz for its economy to operate using alternative supplies and increasing efficient use of its oil resources. The world is also building up oil supplies and inventories so that Iran cannot threaten a cutoff from Hormuz because all nations have made other arrangements. Attacks by Iran on oil shipping on the Omani side protected by the US breaking the principle of open navigation of the seas, can then be considered Iran disrupting an open seas navigation route which it no longer is allowed to do under international law. This is something the world public opinion would support. The NYT has been critical of the DJT action in Iran, the WSJ and other media had joined in criticism. The situation in July 2026 is that the criticism of the US by NYT and other media, and from Europe and other countries in Asia will now be muted, because the US has tried all the options and is now finding ways to be able to bypass Hormuz altogether, and a backup plan or strategy to minimize the impact on oil prices. So that oil price of $70 may be kept at level around 10-20% higher not much more as Iran's military IRGC continues to disrupt the Hormuz supplies.  ...

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Rodrigo - what he does is "indefinable" being in the right places at the right time- winner of best player in World Cup Soccer 2026. He is tall but not imposing. He is not the super athlete. In a World Cup that is dominated by television advertising pushing celebrities every minute, and tickets that few can afford, Rodrigo is the ultimate irony says this report in The Guardian by Jonathan Wilson. Not Haaland, not Mbappe, not Messi, the star celebrities and goal scorers, but Rodrigo or Rodri who is a cerebral player in the Spanish tradition of Busquets. Wilson rightly cites Mauricio Pochettino, the US coach, when he says that the US cannot produce a Rodrigo because of the way it manages soccer expecting parents to pay thousands of dollar for their child to join a club, which leaves out large parts of the US people. And what they get in return is physical prowess. What matters in soccer is tactical awareness and technical ability which are difficult to measure and intuitive. There is another aspect to Rodrigo he struggled for the last 2 seasons after an injury, recovering in time for the World Cup. The results are plain to see. Messi says this report could not play his style of game because of Rodrigo and players like Rodrigo in the Spanish team. ...

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Harry Kane and coaches Tuchel and Scaloni Explaining England's defeat against Argentina with only 5 minutes left and England leading 1-0 World Cup Soccer July 15, 2026. All agree England just stepped back and defended after fighting hard the first 60 minutes of the game following the English goal by Gordon to make it 1-0. That led to wave after wave of unrelenting attacks from Argentina till the ball went through. Between the time Gordfon scored the goal in the 75th minute and the end of the game England possession was only 12%. It had never been more than 40% for most of the game. This caused a serious imbalance in the play. In the last 15 minutes of the game Tuchel pulled out Declan Rice and James, two of England's outstanding players, within minutes Argentina scored its 2 goals. This substitution appears to be an error that Tuchel himself says he accepts having made. Harvey Kane says- “Just gutted, gutted for the boys, gutted for everyone: the team, the staff, the fans.” “We played well for the vast majority of it. Once we went 1-0 up we just seemed to try to hold on which, at this level, is not enough. After the goal, whether it was them putting more men forward or us being able to match them man for man, it just was wave after wave and we were just trying to hold on, put the blocks in, but in the end it wasn’t enough.” England coach Thomas Tuchel says- “We decided to go to a back five because the gaps were far too open.”  “Argentina played with more risk, played with more rhythm and played with the feeling maybe that they had nothing to lose any more, which freed them up and pulled us back. Because we obviously played suddenly with a feeling that we had a lot to lose. Of course the responsibility is on the coach and if it doesn’t go well it’s easy to say it was wrong.” Substitutions can make a difference when the players are tired or to try something new in the last 4-5 minutes of a game. Players can make a difference going in in a minute or two. But coming in in a game with Argentina relentlessly attacking and the game having shifted Declan Rice and James who were already defending for this long had a better sense of this Argentine team's style of play for defending than two substitutes who had no time to get started. Lionel Scaloni, Argentine coach says-  “This team plays best when they are facing adversity.” “We had a challenging situation, there was blood in the water and we went for it. We had six or seven chances and the ball wouldn’t go in but the team fought until the end. After they scored, we really proved ourselves – it shows what football means to us and it goes beyond tactics.” ...

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PM Sakae Takaichi visit to India for deepening ties July 3 2026- she is a music fan and shown trying to play Indian music on PM Modi's site. PM Modi calls Sanae a younger sister in his welcoming speech, and Sanae's speech shown on the PM's Office of Japan above in adjacent article shows how the two countries have the same goals. It is also the land of Dogen and Japanese Buddhism which originated in India in the Bihar region, the land of Buddha Gaya, India, India being the cradle land of Buddhism. During the Indian Renaissance by 1900 Swami Vivekananda visited Yokohama and other places in Japan, and showed India's deep attachment to Buddhism, and the Buddha as part of the religious life of Bharat for over two thousand years of Asian history. There is a deep reverence for places like Nara and its Buddhist history, its temples, and that Sanae Takaichi comes from Nara was of special significance to India, as PM Modi said. The deeper significance of this is that there is a moral law of the universe and this is expressed in the Buddhist and the Vedic scriptures of India, China and Japan. By bringing Japan into this fold India as the cradle of the Vedic culture and the culture of Buddhism that went from Bodh Gaya, India, to China and then to Japan and Korea, is doing its own duty and responsibility to the world of nations of the European cultures that includes the Americas and Africa. By doing this it closes the chapter of European colonial interactions with Asia that led to Japan's militarization through 1945, and China/Korea's militarization, to set a new course for Asia based on the thousand years of Asian history following the advent of the Buddha to the Vedic cultures when relative peace prevailed in Asia.  ...

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NYT gives this perspective of Mikhail Zygar on the difficult economic situation in Russia in January 2026 before the Iran War. Putin considering bringing Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft, as negotiator for Russia with Ukraine, to replace Kirill Dimitriev. Dimitriev is seen in Russia as an insubstantial figure and with no real mandate, on the point of being dismissed by Putin. This would being new life to Ukraine negotiations to end the war. This report says if Russia was to end the war it would have to change the structure of power and that included bringing in a new administration to rebuild the economy, to replace prime minister Mikhail Mishustin. He says oil was sold to India in January for $22 per barrel about one third of the market price. The economy was getting severely affected by the war and the conditions it had created for inflation, oil revenues under sanctions, and by financial and human cost of the Ukraine war, a credit crunch and a wave of bankruptcies that were expected in January 2026. Some of this is confirmed by the perspective offered on the same day this article appeared in NYT by an NYT article from the Foreign Minister of Sweden, Maria Malmer Stenegard. Stengard says Swedish analysis shows central bank interest rates set at 21% in 2024 when interest rates were 10%, suggest inflation was much higher than the 5% official figures. The minister also points out that instead of growing by 13% as official figures reported Russian economy had declined by 8% over 2020 to 2024. British government estimate is that the losses from the Ukraine war are $450 billion. Official growth estimate for 2026 is 0.4%. even with higher oil prices. All this changed with the Iran war by February and the jump in oil prices and Putin has decided not to make the changes he thought necessary and wind up the war, considering that some of the objectives had been achieved and to avoid an economic downward spiral. It is now Putin's decision says this report.  In the past Putin has always given the economy and living standards the priority. Yet the elites in Russia says this report are concerned about the fragile nature of the economy as present oil prices may come down in a short period. ...

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Le Monde reports from Havana Cuba in 2026- 2 million people have left since 2021, the situation is looking increasingly hopeless. There is the 800,000 called the "walking generation" that walked to th southern border of the US during the Biden administration 2020-2024, How did this happen the country of Cuba losing so many people, a third of its population? In 1960 it was 7.1 million. Taking Mexico as an example Mexico's population was 37 million in 1960, it is now 133 million up threefold. At the same rate Cuba's today would be about 20 million in 2026, today it is about 10 million. Instead of 20 million it is half that. About 3 million left the country and population growth simply stopped as the country went from crisis to crisis. Was the revolution worth it, were people in Europe, the US and Latin America who looked to Cuba as a model completely mistaken and was the story oversold to the point where someone like Chavez would try to bring that revolution to a developed economy such as Venezuela as late as 1998, when Cuba was already without US cooperation a state that had fallen behind, by 2026 it was like going back in time 50 years. Could the US offer something better to these countries in the western hemisphere. Did Kennedy JFK promise so much in 1960 and did later US administrations leave Cuba  in a state where it would not get foreign investment and be sanctioned and blocked from access to new technology in so many ways. There is much to reflect on the failure of Cuba, the story of glorious narrative that was told that overlooks the poor condition of the country and benefitted the people the least.  ...

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Russia's takes on a tough negotiating position in the winter of 2025-26, just when the Russian economy suffers decline in oil revenues. Opaque loans in the defense sector that make up 25% of loans or $202 billion could be a problem. Cost of the war in 2025 are over $200 billion. Other problems are the finances of Lukoil and Rosneft, the increasing amount of sanctioned oil that is sitting on tankers in the sea with no buyers. Gazprom has a loss of $12.9 billion in 2025, with cash reserves depleted from $22 billion in 2022 to $6-8 billion in Jan 2026, with $20 billion of additional debt taken on. Rosneft profit dropped 70% in 2025 to $3.6 billion. Consumer spending is down by about 9% in December 2025 compared to 2024. Yet this is unlikely to lead to social or political problems in Russia. It will make it more difficult to finance the war compared to previous years. The Ukraine economy needs $135 billion for the next 2 years for funding the budget which now depoends on laons from the EU. Both Russia and Ukraine are fighting an exhausting war as it enters the fifth year of the war, exhausting their economies and their population, as the leaders of Russia and Ukraine fail to reach an agreement. ...

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Big changes are expected in energy markets after 2026 following the end of the war with Iran, the naval blockade and the Hormuz straits closure. Even when the Shipping returns to Hormuz there will be continued uncertainty and prospect of conflict. As a result China, India, Japan and the US and EU will look for new sources of supply in Latin America for oil and gas including in Guyana, Brazil, Argentina, and in Venezuela. This NYT Analysis  confirms the shift to renewables will accelerate after 2026 with 2-3 years return on investment for renewables, and in 2026 wind+solar+nuclear now generating more electricity worldwide than gas. OPEC stranglehold on oil prices is weakening with UAE's exit from OPEC, and the US+ Venezuela+UAE expanding production. This will benefit poorer countries in the world in Asia, Africa and Latin America, Middle Income countries like China and India, as well as US and EU through lower prices for the new overall energy mix, with a higher component of renewables from every year 2027-2030. Lower priced component for oil possibly at $50 a barrel holding steady to 2030. From this perspective Hormuz's importance will decline over this period to the point that the world's wealth sucked up for far too long in the Middle East through the twin mechanisms of  high oil prices and decades of wars will be shifted back to infrastructure in the EU, US, India and China, Brazil and Indonesia. For the poor countries like Pakistan, India, Indonesia, China and others this is a big deal because instead of the wealth going to princes in the Persian Gulf  it will benefit people in Egypt, Arab countries such as Morocco and Tunisia,Turkey, Pakistan and India, China. Long delayed infrastructure rebuilding in US and European Union can now take place.The shift and trend to renewable energy as a major component of the energy mix of over 50%-60% in India could be expected by 2030 and have a major impact on climate change. (India has already crossed 50% of its energy from renewable sources). China will have installed half of the new renewable energy capacity added by 2030 and this too will add to the fight against climate change. Overall this combination of events and changes underway are overwhelmingly constructive and are not anticipated in this way by most of the world's media including the NY, which see slower growth when the opposite is now the case with accelerating and steady growth expected 2027-2030, and 2030-2035. For the US and EU it could not come at a more opportune time with the determination to invest at home and reindustrialize, build new infrastructure, for India to build a modern country by 2040, and for China or Japan not to get stuck in middle income status with continued modernization to 2040. For the poorest countries to work with these major nations to improve standards of living. For the US it also means the end of the border migrations flows that happened in 2025 taken to the next stage in 2026 and 2027 ending all drug flows across its borders with Mexico- as more lives are lost to fentanyl and other illegal drugs substances (1.25 million since 1999) than were lost in the Korean War (36,000 deaths), Vietnam  War (58,000 deaths) and World War 1 (116,000 deaths) World War II (418,000) all 4 wars combined. Issues of unfair trade deindustrialized the US. This coupled with drugs destroyed small towns and communities (that were based on manufacturing and lost factories) across the US for over 3 decades. The tackling of these issues will also add to the general sense of well being of the people in the US- and also in the European Union. The modernization underway in China and India+Indonesia+Brazil is also part of these changes, promise a rising tide that will lift all boats if we continue together to carefully select the right path ahead and chart the course clear eyed and clear on purpose. ...

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Making some territorial concessions appears to be the only way for peace talks to succeed. For a long time there was insistence on territorial sovereignty of Ukraine by EU and NATO leaders. This appears to have prolonged the war- with needless loss of life on both sides, and costly damage to Ukraine infrastructure, a population that had to face additional winters and hardship in war ravaged areas. NATO's Stoltenberg from Norway, leaders of northern Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK, could take that position without having to face the hardship of the war. NATO had to be re-formed under a new name and new structure  following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with wariness about the possibility of centuries old since 1700 UK and Nordic historical adversarial relationship with Russia casting a shadow over that organization, and embroiling the US in conflicts not of its own choice or of wise leadership. This is the root cause of the Ukraine war. It would have been best to completely restructure NATO and give it a new name without Northern European nations leading it. Principles matter once soviet communism was no longer there NATO formed for its expansionism in 1950's had served it's purpose. Rasmussen from Denmark and Stoltenberg from Norway led the organization for the last decade and half from 2009-2014 and 2014 to 2025, with backing from Obama/Merkel for most of the period of the war in Ukraine. Also most of the period NATO expanded to Russian borders happened under Northern European leaders from Spain, Britain and Nordics (Solana, Robertson, Scheffer, Rasmussen and Stoltenberg) and the organization NATO getting the northern European slant based on historical adversarial relationship of Britain and Russia since 1700- for no other reason than the British wanting to protect its large Empire and commerce in India which in the 18th and 19th century included most of Asia. Under Robertson the UK Defense Secretary much of this transformation into turning NATO into something anti-Russian happened which was primarily because of British and Nordic perceptions of Russia as an adversary. Robertson added the following countries at the Prague Summit in 2002 to NATO- the Baltics, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Russia faced internal upheaval in those years and Yeltsin in resigned in 1999, Putin was elected in 2000. It is clear that Russia had suffered severe economic hardship in that period and Putin's first goal in 2002 was to stabilize the economy.  It could be said that this turning NATO over to UK and Nordics was a huge mistake considering that Russia was still the largest nuclear power after the US, and British policy was now determining US policy. And Britain's Robertson/NATO should not have involved itself in the Afghanistan war using Article 5, as the US could have handled this alone and limited that engagement. It got US involved in another conflict, conflict with Russia that was to come in Ukraine on the side of the Baltics and Ukraine, without US clearly understanding what the roots of that war was about and implied confrontation with Russia 20 years after the Prague Summit in 2002 under George Bush junior. The incompetence of Bush and Obama/Merkel laid the seeds of the Ukraine war in 2022 following Robertson, Rasmussen, Stoltenberg, small Nordic nations and Britain creating a conflict that did not need to happen, with loss of hundreds of thousands of lives of Russian speaking fraternal peoples of both Russia and Ukraine. The Republican sentiment under DJT of the tragedy of such huge losses of young people, and desire to end this loss of life, can nowhere be seen in bellicose talk in northern European nations, that take the US for granted to fight their wars.  The wisdom of Washington, Lincoln and TR/FDR clearly caution in getting involved in European centuries old animosities. For the US it meant in practical terms that it could no longer carry out the Monroe Doctrine essential for peace and good governance in the western hemisphere as only a Russia desperate to make its views known about NATO would interfere in the western hemisphere against US assertion of the Monroe Doctrine with the US Navy. Instead drug trafficking gangs took over Latin American countries and created a flow of fentanyl and millions of people through migrant traffickers across the US southern border. As America has expressed its concern for loss of Russian and Ukrainian men in the war for the first time under DJT Russia has distanced itself from Venezuela, Mexico and Latin America. The loss of hundreds of thousands of young Americans to fentanyl is a shared tragedy with the loss of hundreds of thousands of young Russians and Ukrainians in the last decade. How reliable are Northern European countries when it comes to protecting the eastern seaboard of the US with the acquisition of Greenland? It is a policy pursued by presidents since the Alaska Acquisition from Russia. By Seward, Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman and DJT. Denmark the land where NATO secretary general Rasmussen was from followed by Stoltenberg from Norway  (for 15 of the years of the war in Ukraine 2010-2025) the US efforts to protect its eastern seaboard are rebuffed by both Denmark and Norway, and the US presented in a negative light as an imperialist power in the face of Danish East India Company's  colonial attitude since 1700 clearly imitating the colonial British East India company.  It shows Northern European nations looking out for themselves not for the US, and embroiling the US in their wars at the cost of the entire western hemisphere being destabilized. The population of UK, Denmark and Norway, Baltics is far less than the Mumbai, Shanghai, Sao Paulo , Berlin and Tokyo regions. Should the views of a small population in northern Europe of 2% of the total determine the future of US, Europe, China, India, Brazil, and other parts of the world with 5 billion people the 98%, when issues of war and nuclear conflict, nuclear buildup, the western hemisphere destabilized with drug trafficking gangs running rampant in countries, divide the world in opposing blocs, when the wellbeing of most of the world's people in Asia and Latin America, Africa is at stake by establishing a essential degree of cooperation by all sides. The US under DJT has chosen a wise policy of cooperation over conflict -with China, with Russia, with all the major powers, and with smaller powers. Reading the wisdom contained in the writings of Washington, Lincoln, TR/FDR confirms it is clearly the wise choice. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
If Americans are holding on to their cars for longer or combining them in new ways with an older 10 year old car and a newer 5 year one, then maintenance becomes the solution. As shown here from the WSJ average time car buyers hold on to their cars is up to 13 years in 2026. Car repairs are a high tech business with special skills training for mechanics needed. Bloomberg philanthropies and Ford launch a $90 million training program for new mechanics. More such programs will be needed to drive down the costs of car repairs to bring down the cost of living.

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Berkshire new CEO Greg Abel 2026, Berkshire 2026 stock positions- Apple $60 billion American Express $55 billion Bank of America $25 billion, Coca Cola $25 billion, Chevron $20 billion, Chubb $10 billion. In addition GEICO wholly owned by Berkshire generates about $42 billion yearly in cash from premiums which can be used to invest in companies. By pursuing an affluent demographic American Express gets operating profit margins of 16% and return on equity of about 30%.  Apple has about 27% in net profit margin and 151% in return on equity in 2025. Because of the high affluence demographic of these two companies it offers a strong base for performance for Berkshire. The insurance company GEICO and its reinsurance operations offer a steady stream of cash. This  is the base on which Berkshire has done well over the last two decades. The efficient markets hypothesis moderate form for investors says that publicy available information is reflected in stock prices to a great extent except for anomalies and behavioural aspects. When investors use a basket of 1000 stocks reflecting the economy as Vanguard core index funds, the anomalies and behavioural aspects are less prevalent or cancel each other out creating a strong form of the efficient markets hypothesis in practice for investing discipline. Benjamin Graham, the mentor for all investment leaders would accept this as a way of securing investment gains without the vagaries and uncertainty in selecting stock positions. In 2025 the Berkshire funds achieved 10% gains vs the S&P 500 index which gained 17%, proof that the average investor can do just as well as the so called sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett. ...

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Why no new infrastructure building plan is in place in the US for decades as China, now India build new infrastructure every day with a Master Plan. The Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed in March 2024 in the Baltimore, Maryland area. There was much hand wringing at the time and president Biden also stepped in with help. The Washington Post says 2 years later no plan is in place to build a new bridge. The cost keeps going up from $1 billion to $1.9 billion and up again to $5.2 billion, with the dates shifting 2028 to 2030. Maryland received $2.6 billion insurance payments for the damage to the bridge by a ship, yet the project is stalled in disagreements with different parties involved. Even in the streets of New York, the pedestrian pavements in Brooklyn and other places are so dilapidated but no one seems to care. Suggesting that New Yorkers are also numb to infrastructure being bad as it is, just as Mumbai residents were in the old days before infrastructure became a daily priority in India in recent years, following China's example. ...

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DJT arrives in Beijing China May 13 2026. Topics that will be discussed are - the Iran War and how to resolve it, trade with China, tariffs, and US Taiwan policy. China continues to run trillion dollar surplus in trade with the world with lower trade surplus with the US after DJT tariffs. From $295 billion in 2024 under Biden the new DJT administration with DJT, Bessent and Jamieson has lowered this to $202 billion by 2026. In that same period the world trade surplus of China has increased from $992 to $1.19 billion. It is not clear whether some of the drop in the US figures is from China sending product through channels to Mexico and Vietnam that is then shipped to the US. DJT showed results in his policies by lowering the trade imbalance by 32%, while trade imbalance with the rest of the world has worsened (increase in trade surplus of China) by 20%. What does this show? We can safely assume that excessive trade imbalances are not in either China, EU, or America's interest. China increases trade and political friction by doing so, and it leaves its own policy weak by overdependence on exports, too little effort to increase domestic consumption and living standards.  FOr the US and EU trade imbalances with China of over $1 trillion reflect misguided policy at the top by US and EU decision makers and governments. By exposing their manufacturing base they are losing valuable jobs by the millions and creating a situation where the few with good jobs in select industries live in large cities and the rest of the country in smaller towns and rural areas suffering from lack of amanufacturing base. This weakens the investment base for public services and leads to lack of investment ininfrastructure. This is called deindustrialization which the DJT and Biden administrations both fight hard to reverse for the last 10 years since the disastrous years of the Obama and Bush administrations 2000-2016. For this reason we can say a good Republican is as good as a good Democrat, a bad Republican is as bad as a bad Democrat, political labels are just that labels. The media in US and EU are on a wrong footing and still fail to cover this the way it should be covered to shake off the lethargy in public sentiment in the US so that a rapid drive to reindustrialize and build new new infrastructure on top of the old that was built after World War 1 can take place. In today's world India is stepping up with major infrastructure building just as the US and EU ramp up their rebuilding.  ...

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White House Correspondents Dinner shooting on April 25 2026 at Washington Hilton, the scene of the shooting of Ronald Reagan decades earlier. It is unbelievable that over 2000 guests including the US president and important members of his cabinet would be assembled in a hotel in Washington DC that is not designed for this type of event security. The Washington Post raises questions about the security as the assailant stayed in the hotel. The president DJT says this shows why the White House should have a ballroom or hall that can hold such an event that is designed with security in mind. A 31 year old graduate in mechanical engineering from the California Institute of Technology who worked as a tutor in science subjects was the assailant who was apprehended. Secret Service agents acted quickly to clear the podium where the president and vice president were seated. Most of the people in the hotel ballroom were in complete shock. DJT has not attended previous correspondents dinners saying the media has fake news- much of the press in the US tends to have political leanings that slant the news in one direction or the other and television channels exaggerate the divisions for profit by supplying information tailored to what audiences in their political spectrum want. That may be seen as a clever business strategy when it really hurts the  democratic process that has been nurtured for 250 years. It could be said that young people in particular believe what they are told by media run for profit, opinion created for profit, and this leads to violent behaviour. A robust debate has always taken place in the US- on Iran compare that with the Mexican War under president Polk in the 1850's, before the civil war when Lincoln debated Douglas, under Democrat Harry Truman when he did a whistlestop rail campaign after the war against Republican Wendell Wilkie, yet the fragmentation of rural-urban, white male and white female, within minorities today is excessively and without remorse stoked by the television channels and the newspapers.  ...

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Nuclear arms control SALT treaties expire Feb 2026 - need for new negotiations as the treaties were obsolete, did not include China, smaller nuclear weapons, and weapons from space. The SALT arms limitation treaty was first signed in 1972 by Brezhnev with Nixon. These treaties went through a second version and were renewed. The US no longer thinks this is relevant as China is not included, and smaller nuclear weapons, ones from space are not included and new negotiations are the best way to conduct true arms limitation. An accompanying video in NYT by David Sanger goes into these aspects of talks. Rafael Gross, head of IEA International Atomic Agency, says- You wouldn’t negotiate the same treaty again. There are new technologies that are not covered by the treaty — hypersonic missiles, undersea nuclear weapons, space weapons. And there are many other countries that, for one reason or another, feel now as if they may need a nuclear arsenal of their own.” This is the reason. It also happens that in 2026 US and Russia could coordinate their efforts, so that new US weapons may be needed as other risks could emerge from other places. There are smaller nuclear powers and new nations that might develop nuclear weapons as the US nuclear umbrella may be seen as not fully dependable. This new thinking would be that US and Russia may not see themselves as adversaries but work together to prevent nuclear risks from other sources. This is also why the US (and Russia) may want to wind down smaller regional conflicts, reduce their reliance on their own alliances, so that nuclear cooperation between nuclear powers US, Russia, China, and India may lead to control of nuclear weapons in a larger sense from space and from smaller countries that might develop nuclear weapons as has happened in Iran, which might create new risks that cannot be managed. A belligerent North Korea could lead to South Korea and Japan developing a nuclear weapon. This is also why the Ukraine conflict has run its course and it is in no one's interest to let the Nordics or Britain continue the conflict. The US, Russia, China, India, Brazil should not let middle or smaller powers continue regional or historical conflicts, and promote settlement through peace talks of such conflicts, as it inevitably leads to damaging the interests of billions of people around the world in peaceful cooperation and tackling challenges that affect the quality of life. ...