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Unlike the early waves of coronavirus the situation in November for coronavirus is that of being all over the country. This is true of Europe and also of the U.S. With the virus cases not restricted to any particular part of the country, but all over the country.

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Tara Parker Pope of the NYT has this advice about protecting yourself against coronavirus variants after talking to many infectious disease and other experts. Don't let your guard down she says and suggests some of the same precautions that were taken in earlier waves of the coronavirus, from masks to social distancing and prudent decisions about travel and shopping.

Vaccines offer protection against common coronavirus variants such as B.1.1.7  from UK. It is still wise to follow the prudent rules that were followed before.

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The coronavirus second wave is leading to deeper inequality, food insecurity and other problems in the world. The International Labor Organization estimates $3.5 trillion in lost wages for the world's workers. FR24 looks at the issues this has raised.

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The variant first identified in India called the Delta variant is 60% more infectious than the Kent variant found in the UK. The Delta variant is now the dominant variant in the UK. There is concern that this could lead to another wave just as the UK is reopening in the summer. There are over 6000 daily cases in the UK this week. The estimated R number is now 1.00 to 1.2 following the number being 1.00 to 1.1 in the earlier week. A R number over 1.0 suggests greater spread of the coronavirus. An R number of 1.1 suggests the number of cumulative cases is taking off meaning that the UK is at risk of a sudden surge in the coronavirus in June or July 2021. India faced a wave from the new variant's higher rate of infectious spread. leading to a sudden surge in May 2021 to 400,000 daily cases before it was brought down by June 1 to about 100,000 The number of hospitalizations in such a wave is estimated to be higher in UK than the previous waves, requiring the government to be more vigilant today. Restrictions on travel from Portugal are being put in place in UK as a precaution. After repeated waves as a consequence of complacency with the coronavirus the lesson now is to take steps early and take aggressive action in advance. ...

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Ways of being close to nature during the time of coronavirus through paintings on wallpaper with designs drawn from walks through the coastal wilderness of the French island of Belle- Ile. A designer and artist with water colors brings this wild nature to life on wall paper.

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Milk sales have increased by 7% during the coronavirus period in grocery stores in the U.S., reversing 10 years of decline. Yet dairy farmers expect to struggle as sales to restaurants and hotels that use about a third of dairy products were lost during the pandemic..

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Very low interest rates are enabling buyers in the U.S. to renew buying cars and homes. Higher income workers were hit less then the hardest hit low wage service sector workers in industries such as travel, restaurants. The better economy now depends on the surge in coronavirus and expansion of unemployment benefits that expire in July. Retail sales of new autos were just below pre-virus forecasts in week ending July 5, says J.D. Power. Interest rates are as low as 0.9%. New home sales including higher end buyer homes are doing well as many workers with higher incomes are able to work remotely from home providing more job security and confidence in buying.

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The man who has provided leadership in America for so many epidemics from HIV and H1N1 to coronavirus. Dr. Anthony Fauci is the short kid with a Brooklyn accent in this story in the WSJ, fighting battle after battle against epidemics. Character is built through many stumbles, and overcoming adamantine walls of difficulties. Dr. Fauci has shown this kind of resilience as he joins the president in the latest fight against an epidemic.

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Of the $19 billion in aid to farmers for the coronavirus, $16 billion of the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program, goes in direct payments to farmers and rancher with checks going out end of May. Another $3 billion goes to mass purchases of dairy, meat and produce that will be distributed through food banks. Faced with loss of sales with restaurants and schools closed, and disruptions in deliveries to grocery stores, farmers in the U.S. have stopped or slowed production. As a result huge quantities of food that can't be sold are being destroyed. Plowing under thousands of acres of vegetables, dumping millions of gallons of milk, and destroying eggs. In addition to this aid Agriculture Secretary Perdue says the department is using funds set aside under the larger coronavirus relief aid package of $2 trillion for the U.S., and funds from the Commodity Credit Corporation. Mr. Perdue is himself a farmer from Georgia, who was governor for eight years. These funds are separate from the $28 billion to farmers being distributed by USDA to offset losses from loss of sales to China. USDA plans to make monthly purchases of $100 million each of fresh produce, dairy products and meat, and work with the nation's food distributors to assemble a pre-approved box of food to be given out at food banks and other outlets. ...

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Pfizer's Covid vaccine is expected to bring in $6 billion in profit in 2021. Pfizer increased its sales forecast by 70 percent. The coronavirus vaccine is expected to bring in $26 billion in revenues in 2021 with 1.6 billion vaccine doses manufactured for the year 2021. The total could be much higher with the company striving for supply contracts to manufacture 2.5 billion doses.

India has approved the Pfizer, Moderna and J&J vaccines, with this bringing American companies into the Indian vaccine market in 2021.

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The losses for soccer clubs in Europe could reach 4 billion euros from the coronavirus for the soccer seasons ending in 2021. The big ten leagues including Spain, France, Italy, Germany and Englan d,  would lose 3.6 billion euros, with lost ticket sales of 1.5 billion over 2 seasons. The stadium in Leipzig could host 21,000 people in one of the first soccer games in front of fans.

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DW.com reporter Sean Goodwin goes from Germany to Australia and finds a very different attitude to coronavirus, kind of laid back. Australians he says have a sense that it is a lucky country, and that "she'll be right." The government and Sydney have been slow to adjust to the reality. A stay at home order is now in place in Sydney and New South Wales state.  Australians seem to think they are somehow far away and isolated from the world's problems. It is a cruisy optimistic mentality, says this report.

 

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The two waves of the coronavirus in India can be compared looking at the graphs and this report in the Times of India. The case volume and deaths in the worst hit state Maharashtra is shown here. The case volume increased by about 50% in the second wave but deaths were about half that in the first wave. Most of the deaths were in the people over 65 and most of the cases in the ages below 40 years. In the over 65 age only 5% have been vaccinated which means that medical management is still the best way of tackling the coronavirus. Vaccine supplies are the bottleneck and this is beginning to change- so that by August ample supplies of the vaccine should make the difference in bringing down cases and deaths.  Lockdowns are managed carefully so that the economy can recover in the second half of 2021 and in 2022.  Any assessment of the crisis management must take into account the speed of the response, its effectiveness, and keeping in mind the economic recovery needed following the pandemic. ...

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For the first time the number of people vaccinated in a single state in India reaches 40 million. In Maharashtra state in western India, with state capital Mumbai, the vaccinations crossed 40 million on July 20, 2021, according to the state's Additional Chief Secretary for Health. India has vaccinated 410 million people by July 20, 2021. About 3 million people are getting vaccinations daily.

Maharashtra was one of the top 5 states in the first and second waves of the coronavirus in India. About 2 million healthcare and front line workers have been fully vaccinated in Maharashtra. Maharashtra has a 2021 population of about 125 million according to Aadhar and is the second most populous state in India after UP which has an effective vaccination drive. 

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Photos on exercize and walking, gardening, birdwatching, during the time of coronavirus from DW.com- the importance of renewing body and mind during this time. Pictures of how gardening, birdwatching and other activities can push out anxiety and boost our spirits in different ways.

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Hiking and long walks as a way to break up the endless monotony of work and improve fitness, reducing stress and anxiety. A breath of fresh air and views of the countryside. the clarity of mind that comes with it. Putting everything aside and heading out on a long long walk. Pick a route that suits your ability and don't let anything hold you back. Hiking is great. There are many routes in every region of the world, explore and head out.

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During the coronavirus the market is pushing some buyers out of the market while other buyers are willing to pay higher prices. Limited stock, cheap financing, and low fuel prices are pushing buyers into more expensive models with higher prices. The average new vehicle sold in August in the U.S. was at $35,420 according to J.D. Power. The auto market is following the housing market in this sense where limited supply is pushing up prices. Auto sales declined by 20% in August. Younger buyers are being priced out of the new vehicle market and auto makers are focusing on higher margin vehicles.

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Lessons can be learned about careful reopening in fighting the coronavirus from other countries. Here the Netherlands experienced a rise of cases by 500% within two weeks of reopening after some poor decisions. The Mark Rutte government decided to open all bars and nightclubs resulting in a twelve fold surge in these locations in one week. Most of the new coronavirus cases were in people 18-29. Data from Dutch public health institute shows 4 out of 10 new cases linked to bars and nightclubs with 262% surge in cases for young people 18-24 years. This goes to show that with the vaccination drive what we see is the cases shifting to younger people, the unvaccinated, and to activities like nightlife. People going to work, or doing hybrid remote work with trips to the office, workers in factories, people doing essential shopping, are not causing the rise in cases. Much can be learned from these examples in working out reopening that does not lead to new crises with surging cases in new waves of coronavirus. Earlier in 2020 summer tourists who ignored mask and social distancing restrictions in Croatia brought on a post summer coronavirus wave to Germany and Austria. This time Greece and Portugal are introducing restrictions. Greece plans to make vaccine health pass required effective July 21 to go into restaurants. Another lesson from Netherlands this week is that a 20,000 person music event of 2 days in Utrecht where QR codes were required showing vaccination or PCR tests failed. About 1000 cases were attributed to the Utrecht event alone. Reasons given are that people faked the QR codes, or that the covid testing system produced too many false results as much as 20%. The same QR code system was followed at nightclubs resulting in big problems. One can never be sure that things work as expected and the risks are great as this adds up. Even vaccines offer limited protection and only if fully vaccinated depending on the type of vaccine. One dose of the vaccine is simply inadequate, and obesity, other morbidities can lead to problems. Withdrawing the mandatory use of face masks in most situations is also a risky decision of the Dutch government. Face masks offer the added protection at a time of variants that spread quckly, and when large parts of the population have only one dose of the vaccine, some elderly are still not vaccinated, and young people have not been vaccinated in large numbers. ...

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Coronavirus pandemic is likely to have a permanent impact on the economy even after the pandemic has passed, says Justin Lahart in the WSJ. This is part of a 5 part series on the economic, social and cultural changes that are likely to be permanent even after the pandemic has passed. 

Working from home some of the time is likely to lead people to buy homes further into the suburbs and increase sales of country homes. People will now be able to stay longer distances from city offices and work remotely. This will change aspects of the real estate industry. Airlines are likely to see fewer passengers and some airlines may benefit at the expense of others. Even today Southwest Airlines is moving to expand, and other airlines such as Lufthansa are facing huge losses.

Tourism, travel, restaurants and some service industries are likely to be impacted more than other industries.  

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EU Commission president Leyen announces Pfizer will supply EU with 1.8 billion doses of Pfizer vaccine to 2023. The increased supplies will include booster shorts to increase immunity. Another change is the new date for 70% of European Union population to be vaccinated, which is now advanced to end of July instead of end of September. With new waves of the coronavirus affecting Europe, and criticism of the EU's earlier effort in securing vaccine supplies, more urgency has gone into the new effort in 2021. Leyen told Pfizer CEO Albert Bouria- "If I may say so, engineer the mRNA in a way that it can adapt to potential escape vaccines," at a joint press conference. Leyen thanked Pfizer for its enormous effort in boosting vaccine manufacture and delivery. This will help accelerate the vaccination effort in Europe after the slow start in March and April of 2021. Bringing much needed optimism and new hope of a lasting recovery both in economic activity, health and in the mood in Europe, which can then spread from the US and Europe to the rest of the world. ...

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Wonder who makes the Lysol and Dettol so common in the U.S. and Europe, India, other parts of Asia. It is a British Company Reckitt & Colman, going back to 1817, founded in Lincolnshire, and based in Slough, that merged with Benckiser of Netherlands in 1999. It operates in 60 countries with 40,000 employees and 3.5 billion pounds in sales last quarter. Dettol soap is a household name in India and its push for better hygiene can be seen in ads on Indian television. A 32 million pound fund was set up to promote better hygiene after sales increased by double digits.

This fits in with prime minister Modi's effort for good sanitation, toilets for 1.2 billion people, and the Clean India or Swacch India campaign that is helping India in the fight against coronavirus today.

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Short time work programs, paid leave, aid to small business for employee retention with the government paying a big percentage of wages, and unemployment benefits till companies rehire employees with government paying for this, are all different ways in which the U.S. and Europe are coping with the coronavirus crisis.  In the U.S. 22 million have applied for unemployment benefits with the U.S. government picking up a substantial part of the wages till companies rehire these employees. In the UK the government has launched a program that gives 2500 pounds or $3100 to each worker each month upto 80% of the worker's pay. The money is sent to businesses for retaining employees. This could cover estimated 8.3 million workers in the UK at a cost of $52 billion. The U.S. has a similar program with the first phase $377 billion already distributed to small businesses which requires retention of employees for government forgiveness of these loans. The basic idea is retain employees who could stay at home or be in short work programs or work from home. The French government is paying the wages of 9.6 million workers, almost half of workers in the private sector by sending the money to 785,000 small businesses. In Germany the Kurzarbeit program covers 725,000 companies which supports the wages of employees in a downturn and is financed from a special fund. The cost for Germany, France and Spain is about $147 billion or 135 billion euros for such programs. The European Union will step in with a 100 billion euros loan package. ...

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Germany's kurzabeit or short work system avoids layoffs in a crisis. The Bundestag parliament in Germany quickly reintroduced it following the coronavirus. It provides subsidy to employers so that wages of upto 2500 euros can be paid to employees. The German parliament changed the requirement that makes it law fro a 30% of workers of a company being impacted by a crisis to 10%. About 2.3 million workers will benefit at a cost of 10 billion euros says this report in The Financial Times. The Federal labor office has a fund of $26 billion to which workers and employers contributed just for this purpose of safety net.  Workers get about 60% of their wages under this scheme while the crisis lasts. The last time it was used during the financial crisis of 2008-2009 1.3 million workers benefited from this scheme to prevent layoffs.  Germany with its strong vocational training system invests in worker training. The logical next step was to preserve this knowledge component of workers and avoid its loss through layoffs due to some crisis that is temporary and beyond the control of the company. Britain is adopting this idea this time with the British Treasury supporting  80% of lost wages upto 2500 pounds a month in the new economic aid package announced by the British government. Spain has a scheme under ERTE for 70% of wages to be paid as safety net. France has set aside 8.5 billion euros aid for assistance to workers in a similar scheme as safety net. ...

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As farm product rotted on farms because of a lack of buyers, India has come up with new ways of getting farm agricultural product to buyers in urban areas. The Indian government has approved online sales direct from farmers to buyers outside the country. Within the country enterprising farmers  and app developers for farm produce sales directly to consumers in cities are changing the way agricultural produce distribution works. This report in the Guardian shows how sales are being made from remote Meghalaya state to buyers in cities for product ranging from turmeric, pineapple, jackfruit, and cashew. Prices are about 70% higher helping boost farmers incomes.  Several states have relaxed rules allowing farmers to sell anywhere in the country.  In other parts of the country this is happening with a proliferation of such apps creating a virtual marketplace. Other examples are a grape orchard farm in Gudahalli with sales made in Bengaluru at 30 apartment complexes. One site founder in Chandigarh says he has in 2 months sold 20,000 tons of produce ranging from avocados of the Nilgiris to papaya from Chattisgarh. His app Harvesting Farmer Network also helps with packaging and delivery. In other developments Gaia Agritech is helping farmers on the Konkan coast in Maharashtra hit hard by a pause in exports, sell to housing societies in Pune and Mumbai. This is part of a broader debate in India after coronavirus pandemic. One idea is that people have a family farmer just like they have a family doctor, encouraging organic agriculture, fresh produce for healthier living. By helping farmers it makes for a better economy, as about a sixth of India's GDP comes from farmers and most of the jobs are in farming and agricultural economy. ...

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This report in the Mint suggests that there is strong economic growth in India today yet more needs to be done to broaden the economic recovery to reach all segments of the population. Pent-up demand is leading to economic spending for higher income segments of the population, yet sales of two wheelers for the moderate and lower income segments as shown in graphs here have fallen badly.

The next step is for a broad based recovery as India expands its vaccination drive. There is no room for relaxation of the vaccination drive as prime minister Modi pointed out to lagging district heads in a national virtual meeting on the same day that he returned from COP26 Glasgow. So much has happened in 2021 with the surge in coronavirus in India in the middle of the year, and the economic rebound is in its early stages requiring vigilant and careful attention from industry and government in the months ahead through 2022.