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Maria Corina Machado's  attempts to return to Venezuela following the earthquake in June 2026. Marco Rubio is sympathetic to her wish to return but thinks this may not be the right time and delay elections even further. US has raised the question with Venezuelan government leader Delcy Rodriguez about Machado's return. The intent is to make a transition, but before this can be done the conditions have to be created for a stable government in the interests of the Venezuelan people after many years of Chavismo and the structures he has left behind that could create risks if not covered properly. In that sense Delcy Rodriguez is part of the transition. Rubio told the US Senate at a hearing in Congress that people forget it is only 6 months since the arrest of Maduro and transfer to the US on Jan 1, 2026, and that in that time the US has ensured that all Venezuelan oil sales are made to benefit the Venezuelan people's needs by being deposited into aVenezuelan bank Account at Treasury without the siphoning off of funds that happened before. This is not an insignificant point, it is basic to Venezuela's economic recovery after its disastrous experience with Chavismo and mismanagement of the economy. For the first time Venezuela can export without sanctions which means higher oil sales, and for the first time American oil companies are encouraged and taking interest in investing in modernizing the oil industry in Venezuela. Chavismo itself shows that democracy is not always the instant answer to all questions, that the conditions for democracy need to be established or it will be destroyed and conditions can get worse. This is true today because Venezuela's democratic parties and institutions were destroyed by Hugo Chavez and the country could descend into chaos because of the militias he has created- it will take time to create the right conditions. Rubio and DJT understand this. What people forget is that the US can leave the Middle East but it cannot leave the Western hemisphere and the conditions in the Western hemisphere in the American continent have to be secured so that the US and Latin America can ensure the prosperity of the continent learning from past mistakes. Mistakes under previous administrations that allowed a drift into chaotic environments which led to migration of one third of the Venezuelan people about 7 million to the US and Colombia, other countries, and in Mexico a problem with growth of drug cartels affecting good governance destroying US borders. The Monroe Doctrine served a purpose by keeping out colonial powers from the Americas in the 1820's to the 1950's to benefit the Americas, letting it fade led to today's problems that are much worse than some of the smaller errors in US policy that can be corrected keeping the US overall benevolent disposition towards all of the Latin American nations for economic progress and shared prosperity. ...

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Iran wants to suspend the Oman US route in Hormuz channel to control navigation- the US wants to keep it open for open seas navigation July 7 2026. 30-50 ships make it through Hormuz. US revokes Iran's oil shipment out of Hormuz as a result, and makes strikes on Iranian  missile launching facilities used to disrupt open seas navigation on the Omani side protected by the US. US tries to set back channels to IRGC military that controls Iran, but IRGC does not carry out regular ongoing talks, talking only at the pressure of the president of Iran working with Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar to convince IRGC authorites. China has reduced its need for the barrels coming out of Hormuz, may not go back to getting Hormuz barrels. UAE has found alternative routes to ship and increased supplies, Saudis doing the same. India and Japan looking for alternative sources of oil including US and Venezuelan supplies. Most of the buyers of Hormuz oil reluctant to go back to getting Hormuz barrels. In this sense the situation has changed, from when the war began. Oil prices could rise from $70 to $76 , and a bit more, but the old situation of Iran threatening oil supplies of the poorer developing countries of the world including China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, most of Asia and Latin America, African countries, countries that cannot afford oil prices of $100 is something the world does not need. And the tide is shifting to alternative supplies, conservation that adds enough barrels of oil as China and India, Japan, Germany, are doing, and the US also to some extent. By 2027 alternative supplies will have increased to pull the world out of this place called Hormuz, to where it becomes an insignificant source of unreliable supplies. ...

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After UAE leaves OPEC and US increases oil production (Venezuela+), China reducing imports keeps oil prices low and keeps Hormuz closure from affecting oil prices. This has major impact on all countries that are affected by the shortage of oil as this puts more oil into the market (about 4 million barrels a day that China imported through Hormuz), and by lowering oil prices helps China as it pays less for oil it imports from other sources outside Hormuz. It also helps poor countries such as India and China, Pakistan, Philippines, Indonesia, rest of Asia, Africa and Latin America. By keeping oil prices low China also help climate change action by accelerating its renewable energy production. India and EU, US, also increase renewable energy production as a consequence of Hormuz, leading to strong climate change action. These are some of the positive side of Hormuz as the world with China leading the way learns that it is best to do without Hormuz. Though China does not say this publicly China does not want to see more nuclear weapons capable countries in volatile regions. This is true also of India, Indonesia, and EU. China  (And India) also consider it a high priority for its economy to maintain trade relations with the US. This is rarely stated in the Media today. What this means is that oil prices can be kept low as the largest nations together EU, US, China, India, Japan join together to keep oil prices low not repeating the situation during an earlier naval blockade April 13 to June 18 2026 of prices going to $125 a barrel. China has some of the largest coal reserves and oil strategic reserves in the world which make it possible for China to do this. ...

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US naval base at Bahrain and the damage from missiles in the war  June 2026 as shown by the WSJ. Bahrain is located only 150 miles from the Iranian coastline and was targeted along with other sites including Kuwait and UAE. A new route along the Omani coastline protected by US naval power in the region that then goes along the UAE coastline is now the route opened up by the US for shipping oil through Hormuz. This route is key to reducing oil prices and the recent visit by Marco Rubio of the US to the Gulf Cooperation Council being held in Bahrain June 25,  and the meetings held there, affirmed the open navigation of the seas on international waterways as being under international law. This has led to the fall of oil prices to prewar levels of around $70 per barrel. The US will redo the naval forces and bases in the region with less in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, smaller footprint in Bahrain, and move some naval forces to the west closer to or inside Israel. The administration has asked Congress for $40 billion for the naval and military effort to restore open navigation of the seas for the world's energy of which $5 billion will go to repair of damaged naval facilities. One of the effects of the war that is constructive is ther is now an awareness to manage oil consumption in India, China and Japan major users of oil coming through Hormuz. China has figured out ways to do without the 3 million barrels a day from Hormuz, India has setup alternative oil supplies from Venezuela, and Japan is both cutting oil use and looking at alternative sources. Oil companies are also working on alternative supplies in other regions of the world. Both China, India, and European Union are accelerating their renewable energy sources to meet energy requirements. This means after 2026 the world may not be dependent on Hormuz for energy supplies, Hormuz becoming one of multiple sources and alternative supplies than in the past. This will also keep oil prices in the $50-$70 range that is consistent with cost of living and economic growth. ...

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US can working with all countries find replacement for Hormuz supplies. The meetings with Iraqi prime minister Zaidi at the White House are one part of an extended effort that includes China, India, UAE, EU, Venezuela, other oil producers and oil consuming countries and regions with expanding shift to renewable energy (India, China, EU). Chevron and other companies plan to invest $60 billion in oil projects in Iraq including Kirkuk to Baniyas pipeline. The plan is to ramp up Iraqi oil production to the 4.5 million barrels a day Iraqi production by rebuilding or putting  new pipeline from Iraq to the Syrian coast on the Mediterranean. This is activity from the White House to replace Hormuz as this will keep the US out of a prolonged conflict. The media has not covered the replacement of Hormuz as a viable option to bypass the conflict, leaving a naval blockade in place, and continuing focus on domestic priorities with China, India, EU and other major nations all working together in this direction. China's economy is weak, India's needs trade and technology infusion, EU needs US cooperation and trade, all 3 powers keenly interested in a different path than one put forward by Iran of prolonged and unneeded conflicts for 4 billion people in these largest economies and the 4 billion people in Africa other Asia, and Latin America. That is 8 billion people's interests vs 45 million in Iran (if IRGC has only half the population's support in rural Iran, small towns). Can 5% of the world's population determine the direction of the 95%? Can culture wars in the US which heavily determine the distortions appearing in the NYT,  and the ideological wars on capitalism vs socialism in the WSJ, Republican vs Democrats midterms and other election politics distorted presentation, be allowed to obscure this fact that 95% of the world's people including Americans are interested in fixing drug cartels and fentanyl, fixing dilapidated infrastructure, in building new housing, in tackling oil prices, not the bombing of targets in the Middle East (limiting such action to nuclear weapons facilities not using force in Hormuz). China adds 4 million barrels a day by finding alternatives sources. UAE and Saudis are increasing production outside Hormuz, UAE outside of OPEC. Iraq can add 3 million barrels a day from 1.5 million barrels a day in June 2026 to 4.5 million barrels a day. Because Venezuela's current production is about 1 million barrels a day it can ramp this up to 3.5 adding 2.5 million barrels a day. The chart below shows how Hormuz can be replaced and the task ahead for nations and regions representing 8 billion people in the world. UAE 2 million barrels a day via pipelines, Saudi add 2 million barrels a day via pipelines, Iraq 3 million barrels a day via pipelines, China 4 million barrels a day by alternative sources, India 2 million barrels a day from alternative sources and renewable energy target upgrade, Venezuela 2.5 million barrels a day,  US  1 million barrels a day, Other - Guyana, Canada, Brazil. Shown alongside is a report from Goldman Sachs analysis which come to a similar conclusion and with facts on each specific region's ramp up of oil supplies to replace Hormuz in a race against time.So that Hormuz will be left behind, so that the world and the US of 8 billion people can pursue other priorities of peaceful cooperation, to achieve "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" as the Founders aspirations and the world's aspirations.     ...

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Iranian response to Memorandum of Understanding shows reality of 2 factions in Iran, the IRGC military faction, and the elected president Pezeshkian plus Turkey /Pakistan/Egypt and Qatar as the second faction. With IRGC military rejecting the Memorandum on opening Hormuz and discontinuing nuclear weapons programs. This was true at the time Vance conducted negotiations and the Memorandum appears to have been accepted by IRGC only under great pressure from Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar, and the faction under Iranian elected president Pezeshkian. Where IRGC thinking could have been to give  agreement to the Memorandum that they had no intention of keeping, as its policy on nuclear weapons remains unchanged, and its goal is to use Hormuz for leverage and extend its control of Hormuz channel. The cost of sanctions and not being able to export oil, the effect on its economy, on cost of living with rampant inflation, may be of little concern to the people who run the IRGC military who suppressed all dissent and protests in 2026. Protests across different parts of society to the deteriorating economy. How could the US respond? The US used the time of the ceasefire to create a new status quo by using open navigation of the seas as the principle behind opening and protecting the Omani side of the Hormuz for oil shipment. This is a principle accepted by all countries. There is a backup plan of the US, China, India, Japan and other countries and this is to prepare rapidly to do without Hormuz so that the economies of these nations are not affected. The US also supported efforts by Saudis and Kuwait, UAE, to increase oil exports through channels outside of Hormuz, UAE's decision to increase oil supplies and lower prices by leaving OPEC, and US creating alternative supplies for India through Venezuela. Most important is China's decision that it no longer needs the 5 million barrels of oil from Hormuz for its economy to operate using alternative supplies and increasing efficient use of its oil resources. The world is also building up oil supplies and inventories so that Iran cannot threaten a cutoff from Hormuz because all nations have made other arrangements. Attacks by Iran on oil shipping on the Omani side protected by the US breaking the principle of open navigation of the seas, can then be considered Iran disrupting an open seas navigation route which it no longer is allowed to do under international law. This is something the world public opinion would support. The NYT has been critical of the DJT action in Iran, the WSJ and other media had joined in criticism. The situation in July 2026 is that the criticism of the US by NYT and other media, and from Europe and other countries in Asia will now be muted, because the US has tried all the options and is now finding ways to be able to bypass Hormuz altogether, and a backup plan or strategy to minimize the impact on oil prices. So that oil price of $70 may be kept at level around 10-20% higher not much more as Iran's military IRGC continues to disrupt the Hormuz supplies.  ...

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How the grandiose visions of Saudi new cities in the desert are being reset after the war, and the people in the poorest countries are being faced with higher prices for food, fuel and fertilizer when they can least afford it in 2026. The media focus has been on the Hormuz without saying, A. -that now with the Omani route added to the Iranian route in Hormuz a new defacto 2 route Hormuz is setup by the US Iran agreement. B.- that China has already reset its energy policy to do without the 3 million barrels a day it got through Hormuz, India has already setup new oil supplies from Venezuela, Japan is working out new arrangements, US is creating incentives for oil companies to produce in other regions of the world. And C.- the renewable energy policies, how much energy to use per unit of GDP under effcient use, is being accelerated in EU, India, China and Japan, and indirectly also in the US as cost of renewables comes down compared to fossil fuels. These will be constructive aspects of the situation. The world also shifts away from the Middle East a source of decades of wars that brought down the Soviet Union, destroyed some economies in South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan), created the distraction for the US that led to letting its infrastructure and economy to weaken, and destroyed the economic and social fabric in many parts of the Arab world and North Africa (Libya, Iran, Iraq, Syria). It closes a chapter of the Middle East from which lessons can be drawn for a focus on economic development and using science and technology to improve living standards of the people of the world, to tackle climate change, and for peaceful cooperation of major nations. ...

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Iran's Assembly of Experts (clerics) acting as an arbiter as a power struggle takes place between elected president Pezeshkian and the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Assembly of Experts made up of clerics and the Ayatollah as its head shift support to one faction then to the other. This is who US is talking to and negotiating with. To negotiate with Pezeshkian even when agreement is reached the next day IRGC can come out and take action to control Hormuz by knocking out ships. A Qatari ship carrying 2 million barrrels in Hormuz was hit by IRGC when Pezeshkian signaled he had reached an agreement with the US that would release $6 of $12 billion in Iranian funds in Qatar. IRGC plan is to control Hormuz, charge tolls, and raise $40 billion a year through tolls. IRGC believes it can disrupt the narrow 15 mile channel on the Omani side in violation of international law of navigation that the US wants to keep open. For the US the question is - Can you even negotiate with the entity that is Pezeshkian and the elected government when it is in a power struggle with IRGC? Can you negotiate in the context of the burial as martyr of Iran's current religious leader Ali Khamenei? And even if you negotiate, IRGC responds to close Hormuz, US restarts bombing, where does this get the US when Hormuz remains closed. The US has we show here has only one option not stated in the Media. That is to bypass and ignore Hormuz and get alternative supplies of oil and keep naval blockade at low cost. For the US and the world to generate alternative supplies to Hormuz the US works with China, India, Japan, Indonesia and European Union, Arab states, to take the following action. Get 5-6 million of the 20 billion of Hormuz barrels as day using existing and new Saudi and UAE pipelines outside of Hormuz channel, accelerating renewable energy and EV's hybrids, China doing without the 4 million barrels a day from Hormuz by cutting its oil use through energy efficiency, alternative sources of oil from Venezuela ramp up and new oil production in the US and other places in the world, using reserves and rebuilding reserve supplies, better management of the 80-90 million barrels a day of the 108 million barrels a day the world used in 2025. All of these action are taking place in the transition to a world without Hormuz for the last 60 days. ...

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1.2-2 million barrels a day go from Iran's Kharg island through Straits of Hormuz for ship to ship transfers in South China Sea, then labeled Emirati oil and unloaded at refineries on Shandong coast. These refineries are called teapot refineries. In this way US sanctions are avoided. Shipments of oil were about 700,000 barrels a day before 2023. After 2023 this more than doubled. China gets this at a 10-15%  discount costing Iran about a third of revenues it would otherwise be able to sell this oil if it decided to work with the US in a new arrangement. This report in FR24 shows China as limiting it's relations with Iran to oil, careful to not let it affect more important trading relations with US European Union, and Germany. This is similar to the situation for Venezuela -which under a new arrangement the US has with Venezuela- now gets market prices for its oil increasing it's revenues substantially by about one third to benefit the Venezuelan people suffering from high inflation and economy wrecked by sanctions. ...

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By taking action in Venezuela in a way that benefits the Venezuelan people (and similar action in the long run interests of the Iranian people to dedicate most of the resources for development and increase share of oil revenues without discounting and removing sanctions ill effects on economy and quality of life) major new changes can improve quality of life in the world.  Venezuelan production which was 3 million barrels a day has declined to 900,000 without US investment and technological upgrades. With US investment this can be increased to put additional oil supplies on the market lost in the war with Iran and smaller traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. Venezuelan crude is best suited to US refineries which frees up shale oil for export to meet needs of India and Europe. China which had hyper growth through massive oil consumption would reduce its growth rate and its impact on climate change as it adjusts to the loss of 3 million barrels a day it no longer gets from Iran. Slower growth rate in China is good for the climate as it is the hyper growth of China that put the most pressure on climate even as Europe and the US had cut  fossil fuels consumption over the last decade. China made 2 coal plants a week and 95% of all new global coal construction in 2023. India needs additional oil supplies as it increases its growth rate from a much lower point of development (and electricity poverty) than China. By simply settling for normal development compared to hyper development targets( China has reached a point of Oil Fairness Percentage where each country gets to use the same percentage of oil as its population is as a percentage of world population- the number being about 17% for China for both, with the number being 18% for India and it having a shortfall of 12% based on its oil consumption being only 6% of the world total). China can reduce oil and coal consumption reducing pressure on oil prices and absorbing most of the impact from the loss of Iranian oil. China and Russia + (old Soviet territory) Canada, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, make up about 40% of the world's territorial landmass, would be large beneficiaries with improved climatic conditions from burning less coal. They are now highly developed countries and do not need hyper growth which requires China to build 2 coal plants a week and consume excessive amounts of crude oil and coal based on artificially set targets that make no sense by destroying the climate when no child in China lacks electricity to read. Marathon Philipps Valero with over half a million barrels of refining capacity for heavy Venezuelan crude can now put this to use using the imports by US of lower priced (by $9 to Brent crude) Venezuelan crude oil. In a few months of 2025 US has imported 280,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in February 2026 alone some of it going to the large Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. American oil refiners make larger margins using the Venezuelan crude than they make on light crude from shale oil producers in the US. What this does is to increase the supply of crude and refined oil products on the market as the light crude get shipped overseas to India and Europe- including countries like Spain which took in 100,000 barrels a day of shale crude from US in February 2026. ...

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Venezuela investment of $100 billion by US for oil and dilapidated infrastructure- how it looks 5 months after Venezuela's new government in place. The US president called for $100 billion in investments. The Washington Post looks at the current talks by Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips with the Venezuelan government. It shows how far and how quickly things have changed with the US Treasury account that has KPMG Audit and is intended for the Venezuelan people funds for reconstruction of the economy. US media speculates on many topics - how the orderly transition can be made, how the oil industry can be revived and how the investments can be made for infrastructure that has been neglected and broken down. The main point to remember says Marco Rubio who with his long association with Latin America was instrumental in setting up the strategy to get Venezuelan recovery and public participation in phases by finding leaders who can do this within the existing setup left by Chavez and Chavismo. Delcy Rodriguez was chosen. The main point is that it is only 5 months of 2026 and a lot has been achieved to set the right direction. Not mentioned in the Washington Post is that Delcy Rodriguez is in India this week on a trip that brought her in contact with many Indian leaders to meet India's petroleum needs. What can India do in exchange? As part of a long term plan Venezuela shares the experience of India through colonial rule, and can emerge as a key partner for development of its infrastructure and economic revival along with the US. This will change the dynamic into something different- the US offers not merely the Monroe Doctrine principle in the Western Hemisphere but also can now show what was never possible since 1821 and president Monroe - the opportunity to tie up with the US expanded relationships in Asia, with India and Japan that are supporting a huge transformation for 1.4 billion people in India. It offers Venezuela a tie up of its energy resources with US oil companies technologies, and the infrastructure technologies and labor of Japan and India, digital transforming tech nologies of India and Japan/Taiwan. This offers the potential for real revival in Venezuela and in Latin America that never before existed and is now being put in place.  ...

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Kuwait oil production cut as storage fills up March 2026. Fewer tankers are making it through the Straits of Hormuz. Huge inventory on tankers in ocean waters and the added supplies from Venezuela help relieve the pressure on oil supplies as Iranian oil production stops. The US allows India to get Russian oil for 100 days in this special situation of war in the Middle East region. 

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Greg Ip says what a difference US policy under DJT has made for energy independence and for exports. US economic growth is affected only slightly as it exports oil and LNG. Forecasts by Citi revised for the US for economic growth by only 0.1% downward for the Iran War, for the European Union by 0.4%. EU spends 1-2% of GDP to get imports of LNG and oil. US gets 0.2% of GDP for the oil and LNGit exports.  The US is in a strong position with oil policies to increase production and there is also additional supplies from Venezuela that can be added to replace Persian Gulf supplies. Which is why DJT can tell the world and the Europeans, Japan and China to get their own oil and do the job of opening Hormuz because US does not get any of its oil and LNG from Hormuz straits. In 2025 EU gets LNG from Norway 89, US 81, and Russia 37 in billions of cubic meters of imports for total in 2025 of 207 down from 257 total in 2021 because of conservation. US LNG will increase as US sells more LNG to Europe in 2026 and 2027 and reduces the little it imports from Russia. EU is doing a good job of conservation that the US can adopt to export even more to India and Japan replacing some of the supplies from the Persian Gulf nations. ...

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The world today is in a much better position to complete the transition to zero dependence on the volatile Middle East for oil. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US   2. China  3. India  4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (India through waivers for Russian sources). European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources. US is self sufficient in oil and gas and exports oil to the UK, India, Germany and the European Union. Canada is self sufficient. Germany gets only 6% of its oil from the Middle East, the UK 12%, Spain 13% and Italy 14%. The Iran war is likely to shift more of the needs of UK, Spain and Italy to other more stable sources including oil from the US and Venezuela managed by the US, and other sources. This means that US policymakers can act in the best interests of all the nations of the world for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles. Germany is moving rapidly to renewable energy and this could bring its dependence on the Middle East to zero. India will meet its needs from Russia for the time being till it also shifts to oil from US+ Venezuela. India get 55% of its oil from the Middle East or about 2.7 million b/d. Russia was an important source of oil for India till the US trade agreement called for it to shift- a 30 day waiver and extension means India can get this oil from Russia without sanctions for the duration of the war. Reducing European demand and Indian demand frees up oil for Japan and South Korea on the world market the other 2 countries dependent on Middle East oil- Japan importing 95% of its oil consumption with imports of 2.5 million b/d and South Korea importing about 2 million b/d or 70% of its consumption. This means Japan and South Korea need a new strategy as they are overexposed to one source just as Germany was and learned a difficult lesson to diversify its sources. Japan has learned to reduce consumption for the same level of GDP and some of this can be through conservation, also tried in Germany in the last 4 years. During the 4 years. of Ukraine war Germany had to find ways to diversify sources Japan and South Korea will need rapidly to do the same in the Iran War. This means that only Japan and South Korea because of their lack of policy direction and vigilance have allowed this overdependence on the Gulf region,  (even as Germany diversified its sources, DJT and Israel were firm on nuclear weapons policy) they failed to see signs that they should diversify. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US 2. China 3. India 4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (Indi through waivers for Russian sources), European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources.    ...

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Iran Proposal that asks $2 million per ship to be split with Oman for opening the Hormuz Straits- April 6 2026. China, Japan can pay this amount to get the 90% of the oil they need from Hormuz, which would go to reconstruction of war damage in Iran. India would shift some of its purchase of oil and gas to the US and so will Japan over 2027-2028. This would result in a shift away from the Persian Gulf dependence to renewable energy and to buying oil and gas from US+Venezuela as more reliable sources. European Union and Britain would also make this shift as shown in the adjoining article by Prof Geoffron of Universite Paris Dauphine in Le Monde. The proposal also requires US and Israel to commit to no future attack on Iran, and Israel to stop its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US and DJT call the new regime under a Speaker of the Iranian parliament, an elected president who had to respond to people sentiment in the election, and a grandson of Khomeini, one that is easier to talk with than the earlier regime. The problem remains nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles development that the US has as its sole objective which is what the war is about than Hormuz as the US and DJT say Hormuz is China and Japan's problem where for some strange reason these industrial powers import 90% of their oil from Hormuz and have done this after 40 years of disruptions, a mystery they can solve on their own. ...

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The new India built refinery by RIL (Reliance India Limited) in the US at Brownsville, Texas, will reduce US trade balance by $15 billion a year and will produce oil using cleaner US shale oil and newer technologies that are less polluting for the environment.  India's RIL Refinery Project for $300 billion at Brownsville, Texas, is Explained here in the Indian Express. The Project is called America First Refining, and was announced by the US president recently.  $125 billion for 60 million barrels of US shale oil processed annually over 20 years and $175 billion for 2.5 billion gallons of refined product to be produced annually for 20 years. US  imports about 2.8 billion barrels a year and (exports 1 billion barrels a year) at a cost of $180 billion a year. This means the trade imbalance from crude imports will be cut by about 10% annually. The new refinery is the first in 50 years and is designed to process cleaner lighter shale oil from the US Permian Basin -whereas existing refineries are designed with older technology for heavier crude oil such as the US gets from Venezuela. Reliance India Limited has a fast turnaround time on projects- new project will come onstream in 2027. It currently has the world's largest single refining complex in Jamnagar, Gujarat, India.  ...

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This NYT's look at PDVSA the Venezuelan oil industry 2026 and in the years 2013-2026 after Chavez is an eye opener on what happens when socialist ideas of distribution and equality fall apart. There are dangers on both sides the Right, the Left makes no difference mere labels, vigilance, good leadership, clean governance, good management hard work, are essential for countries and peoples to prosper.The operations of the Venezuelan oil industry in these years as shown in the NYT. show the failures of the Chavez ideas for the economy, hyper inflation and mismanagement of the country's oil resources that followed in 2013-2026. From Nigeria, to India in the years just before the 2014 elections, to West Bengal, India in 2026, many such lessons in Indian states post Independence 1947, Sri Lanka, clear lessons on how socialist regimes take a turn into financial disaster as dreams evaporate and economies are destroyed with lack of jobs and industry, mismanagement and corruption. Everything falls apart, billions of dollars of public funds are lost, economies are ruined, people's lives destroyed, a cautionary tale for future generations. In Latin America, Asia and Africa most prone to such disasters, where bad leaders can come to power through elections if the situations are allowed to be created where this can happen through the lack of effort to build better societies that work. ...

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More than a retreat it gives the US, EU, India, China and the nations in Asia and Africa, Latin America most affected by higher oil prices and lower economic growth a time to pause and rethink dependence on the Gulf region for oil supplies. It is not mentioned in the media yet there has to be a link between the US president's visit to Beijing and Beijing's support for a normalized US China relationship, and offering its support for a settlement. This gives EU, China, India, Japan, and poorer nations in Africa, Asia, such as Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil, some relief from reduced access to oil supplies. US is also planning a supply from Venezuela to India to take pressure off oil supplies in Asia by offering Venezuela as an alternative source. China is in many ways joining the US to bring about a denuclearized Middle East, doing it in a quieter way with Iranian public opinion making a shift to put its economic development ahead of missile development. As the two sides have different interpretations and it is still only a Memorandum of Understanding it is not a situation where the US is sending billions of dollars to support the military in Iran as Obama had done. Attention will shift to the Iranian economy over the next 12 months.  US conveys that it has nothing to gain from wrecking the Iranian economy or nation as the Iranian people if avote were held today would clearly choose putting the economy first by huge margins considering the widespread protests in Iran in 2025 that started this crisis. The US naval blockade was effective and is always an option, with US and partners having greater experience in the situation presented by the narrow straits in Hormuz. Arab partners also acted with restraint and is itself an opportunity for Iran to change direction. China's making cuts of 3 million barrels a day in oil supplies from Hormuz is itself along with acceleration of renewable energy in both China and India is one of the dividends of this crisi. Another is the gradual shift to alternative supplies from other regions of the world so that Hromuz region can no longer dictate oil prices in the world. Accelerating Venezuelan and UAE, US, other oil and gas  supply growth will also put increase supply and renewables reduce  demand growth as a result of the crisis to break the hold on oil prices of the oil cartels of Qatar, and Saudis. As a transition fuel oil can be be kept below $50 a barrel, not at prices at the whims of the princes in the Middle East at the expense of the people of the Arab world from Egypt the most populous and Tunisia, Morocco, to the Muslim nations such as Turkey and Pakistan,Iran itself which bore the brunt of this Hormuz crisis. The US has several priorities including in its relations with oil cartels dominated Mexico that  brings drugs and people across US borders, with other nations in EU and Asia that have benefitted through deindustrialization in the US leaving it poorer across a vast part of America. Advancing objectives in one area such as denuclearization does not mean not addressing priorities at home and in relations with other regions. China shares American interest in denuclearization of the Middle East this should now be put to the test. It is an entirely different situation in 2026 than what weak leaders from Bush to Obama allowed to happen by  wars in the Middle East - the US naval blockades of 2025/2026 are entirely different in cost in terms of men and dollar investment and used to convey America's determination not to waste vital resources of the Nation. The best policy is not to pursue policy for absolute wins but make intelligent choices and in some situations pause to reflect on the best course of action and other ways to reach goals. By getting China and the US as world powers for denuclearization even though this is not vocally said, both gain and both will come up with solutions. ...

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Big changes are expected in energy markets after 2026 following the end of the war with Iran, the naval blockade and the Hormuz straits closure. Even when the Shipping returns to Hormuz there will be continued uncertainty and prospect of conflict. As a result China, India, Japan and the US and EU will look for new sources of supply in Latin America for oil and gas including in Guyana, Brazil, Argentina, and in Venezuela. This NYT Analysis  confirms the shift to renewables will accelerate after 2026 with 2-3 years return on investment for renewables, and in 2026 wind+solar+nuclear now generating more electricity worldwide than gas. OPEC stranglehold on oil prices is weakening with UAE's exit from OPEC, and the US+ Venezuela+UAE expanding production. This will benefit poorer countries in the world in Asia, Africa and Latin America, Middle Income countries like China and India, as well as US and EU through lower prices for the new overall energy mix, with a higher component of renewables from every year 2027-2030. Lower priced component for oil possibly at $50 a barrel holding steady to 2030. From this perspective Hormuz's importance will decline over this period to the point that the world's wealth sucked up for far too long in the Middle East through the twin mechanisms of  high oil prices and decades of wars will be shifted back to infrastructure in the EU, US, India and China, Brazil and Indonesia. For the poor countries like Pakistan, India, Indonesia, China and others this is a big deal because instead of the wealth going to princes in the Persian Gulf  it will benefit people in Egypt, Arab countries such as Morocco and Tunisia,Turkey, Pakistan and India, China. Long delayed infrastructure rebuilding in US and European Union can now take place.The shift and trend to renewable energy as a major component of the energy mix of over 50%-60% in India could be expected by 2030 and have a major impact on climate change. (India has already crossed 50% of its energy from renewable sources). China will have installed half of the new renewable energy capacity added by 2030 and this too will add to the fight against climate change. Overall this combination of events and changes underway are overwhelmingly constructive and are not anticipated in this way by most of the world's media including the NY, which see slower growth when the opposite is now the case with accelerating and steady growth expected 2027-2030, and 2030-2035. For the US and EU it could not come at a more opportune time with the determination to invest at home and reindustrialize, build new infrastructure, for India to build a modern country by 2040, and for China or Japan not to get stuck in middle income status with continued modernization to 2040. For the poorest countries to work with these major nations to improve standards of living. For the US it also means the end of the border migrations flows that happened in 2025 taken to the next stage in 2026 and 2027 ending all drug flows across its borders with Mexico- as more lives are lost to fentanyl and other illegal drugs substances (1.25 million since 1999) than were lost in the Korean War (36,000 deaths), Vietnam  War (58,000 deaths) and World War 1 (116,000 deaths) World War II (418,000) all 4 wars combined. Issues of unfair trade deindustrialized the US. This coupled with drugs destroyed small towns and communities (that were based on manufacturing and lost factories) across the US for over 3 decades. The tackling of these issues will also add to the general sense of well being of the people in the US- and also in the European Union. The modernization underway in China and India+Indonesia+Brazil is also part of these changes, promise a rising tide that will lift all boats if we continue together to carefully select the right path ahead and chart the course clear eyed and clear on purpose. ...

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“The world needs more energy. The world needs more resources, and U.A.E. wanted to be unconstrained by any groups” says UAE energy minister, Suhail Al Mazrouei. On May 1, 2026 UAE with 12% of OPEC cartel production (3.6 million barrels a day) will leave OPEC. It is a change in strategy of where and how to sell oil production in the future. UAE including Abu Dhabhi oil company says it is time for it to pursue its own national interests. As its economy is diversified including tourism and other sourcesd of revenue, UAE puts volume before price support. Saudis are not diversified and seek to maintain price support and keep fossil fuels way into the future. Qatar and Ecuador have already left the cartel. Since the old days of OPEC US has emerged as the largest producer, Venezuela is coming back as a major producer, changing the situaiton now that UAE is  also not betting on and supporting efforts for keeping prices high. This is good news for India and China, Japan, major buyers of oil and with large populations increasing demand. It also helps the US because of its diversified economy. ...

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Russian shadow fleet and about 80% of Russian oil now sanctioned after US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil- Feb 2026. This is putting more oil onto a fleeet of vessels operating under Comoros, Sierra Leone and third nation flags, or even two flags, which the Americans and Europeans are tracking and diverting. Russia seeks to put this oil on an alternative tanker fleet it owns and which is insured by Russia, that goes from the Baltic and Black seas to the Mediterranean to refineries in Turkey, India and China. What thsi does is increases risks for Russia in shipping and for the Euroepans and Americans when ships fly Russian flags with military convoy. The overall effect of cutting Russian oil exports in addition to India committing to buy American oil and Venezuelan oil instead of Russian oil in its trade agreement with US, is that Russian economy may be in risky territory. Inflation is higher than official 6 percent at 16% interest rates, and this increases the risk. Budget needs within Russia may not be met as this continues. It is in Russia's interest now to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, now that the US has moved away from NATO/Europe to peaceful cooperation with Russia and competition with China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
As the media in the US and world cover this issue the focus is on the war and Hormuz. In the background a different situation is playing out. US Iran peace talks with Pakistan/ Qatar mediation June 13 2026- different factions in Iran RGC and Foreign Ministry+mediators with different positions  put out conflicting reports throughout May and June. The mediators Pakistan, Turkey and also Qatar/Saudis which also have a keen interest in limiting the damage to their economies, are taking one position working with the Foreign Ministry and elected Iranian president Pezeshkian who won 16 million votes 55% in the 2024 election. Inside Iran the RGC under new leaders is pursuing its own interests that does not put the economy first in conflict with Pezeshkian and public opinion in Iran for putting the economy first.  Pakistan faces grave risks with its large population, the risks to the economy from oil prices at $125 a barrel to its balance of payments crisis. Turkey also faces risks to its economy with high inflation. Saudis and Qatar see their economic prospects as limited and need to cut economic projects as oil revenues decline. In this situation the US goal of getting nuclear material out of the country is now put into a phased process based on conditions for every step of the way by the US negotiators, yet with memorandum of understanding to accomodate a changing situation. This policy may also be now agreed on between China and the US, and to some extent Russia. This can be seen as playing out and media does not talk about it. China openly greets DJT in Beijing and US and China agree to work things out in May 2026. China cuts its oil use by 3 million barrels a day as shown in a WSJ report this week. This is a major step. UAE leaves OPEC and calls for cuts in oil prices. Next Delsy Rodriguez of Venezuela visits New Delhi, India, and meets to set up economic relationships that include large purchases of Iranian oil to replace supplies lost in Hormuz and what India can offer in exchange for these purchases to Venezuela, including infrastructure building support. This points to a Win-Win for the US, China, India, as oil needs are met from places other than Hormuz for major users of energy. China may have realized that its prolific use of oil for 25 years of rapid development may have led to wasteful use of oil- some of that wasteful use can now be cut- 3 million barrels of oil use cut accepting some slower growth for quality growth. Germany and Japan are using less energy per unit of GDP and China will be looking at their model of energy use as an example to follow. This has huge potential for limiting climate change, as without China and India becoming more efficient in energy use, nothing the US could do was going to make a big difference for climate change. This may be one of the unintended benefits of the Hormuz situation in 2026 - ways to cut energy use for climate change action. And ways to move away from Hormuz and Persian Gulf for supplies so that poorer countries and advanced economies have to pay less for oil helping the poorer countries (Pakistan, Turkey) survive and grow, helping middle economic status rapidly modernizing economies  continue rapid growth (China and India), and helping advanced economies with cost of living hurting the majority of their people (US and EU).  With less money Russia, Iran and other countries will face serious constraints for more military expenditures as for the first time alternative supplies (other than Hormuz) and lower oil prices are being brought about in a newly unfolding plan of the US, China, India and other nations, that is not discussed in today's world media headlines. This means when seen objectively there is room for optimism based on the one thing going for the US, China, India, EU, a host of poorer nations in Asia /Africa/ LatinAmerica, the  5 largest development blocs and population blocs today, which is that the US and China can agree on being custodians for peaceful development accepting their responsibilities for guaranteeing this world order- as DJT and Xi Jinping stated in Beijing in May 2026- with the US aim of nuclear free Iran also accepted by China, Russia, India, and large sections of the Iranian population that put the economy first. ...

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  US reaches agreement that would restore oil supplies and bring down oil prices. The supply chains may have to be reconstituted for replacing much of the 20% of the oil that flows through Hormuz if the US, Europe,China and India, Japan, rest of the world are to gain from this experience. The only way to understand the change of mind of the DJT US government and the Saudis/UAE/Qatar for bringing an end to the war without immediately fulfilling required nuclear conditions is from the Saudi point of view it has sought to avoid damage to its oil facilities from Iranian drone and missile attacks. From the US point of view it may see that the US + ramped up Venezuelan production by 2027-2028 with increased push for supplies in other parts of the world with better security than Hormuz, could make up for most of the loss in supply from Hormuz. For the remainder acceleration of the renewal energy in Europe and in China, India could reduce dependence on oil from Saudis/Iran.  US Energy Information Administration forecast is for oil prices currently $103 for Brent crude oil to stabilize at $89 at the end of 2026 and $79 in 2027. The year started in 2026 at $60 per barrel. The UAE oil agency ADNOC says it would take 4 months to get 80% of production back on stream and full flows by 1st quarter 2027. Rystad Energy estimates repair and restoration at oil facilities to cost $58 billion. The MAGA base which opposed wars by Bush and Obama in the region would then look at it this way. The billions that Obama poured into Iran for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program would not happen again, as the US would continue its sanctions till all nuclear materials are removed from Iran. Iran would stall in negotiations that are now put off with only a Memorandum to show for commitment of Iran- though an agreement would only be a piece of paper that Iran may not implement as the failed Obama agreement showed- but yet not have the billions of dollars to support its nuclear program. It would give the US, Israel, and the world 10-15 years in which to respond to another nuclear program by Iran. Iran will need $270 billion to repair the damage to industrial facilities, which shows the cost of the war for the Iranian people just to get a nuclear weapon is prohibitive, considering that the Iranian economy was already in trouble before the war. Inflation and the overall economy will be in difficult shape for many years. Public sentiment in Iran may change the future course of Iran away from the course currently pursued. The entire Middle East  region has not benefitted from its dependence on oil. For the rest of the world finding alternative sources of supply is the best way and EU, China, India should accelerate renewable technologies and goals for energy independence shortening the transition from fossil fuels. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
IEA Director Fatih Birol says conservation of energy plans should be undertaken by all nations. He says Gulf countries and Saudi oil output will not be the same even when the war ends and the shipping lanes in the Hormuz Straits will not be handling the volumes of 100 ships that passed through the sea channel before the Iran War. Yet he says the best solution is for opening the Straits of Hormuz. This raises some serious questions about depending on the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf for oil supplies in 2027 and beyond. Can conservation, new sources of oil, acceleration of renewable energy use and electric car technologies lead to making the Middle East oil supplies becoming redundant, doing without this supply or turning it into a marginal source which would lower oil prices even further to the $50 level? Energy use decline for the same or higher GDP levels have potential in the US, China and India. Japan and Germany have cut energy use by about 50% in Japan and 35% in Germany with slightly higher Real GDP levels than 1996 in Japan and a 50% increase in Germany over a 30 year period( using 2015 as base year).  Major renewable energy gains have been made in the last 10 years with solar and wind technologies and electric car technologies. Much of the gains in electric car technologies lies ahead and this would cut crude oil significantly for cars and trucks which makes up 60-70% of oil use. Add to this conservation technologies. Other sources of oil can be found. And Venezuelan, Alaskan oil can be ramped up to replace volatile sources from the Middle East.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In Argentina the Right and Left politics have failed for most of this century, the economy struggles again in 2026- Millei and Argentina as shown by the NYT's Cohen. Yet inflation is down and something different is being tried. Bloated bureaucracy is cut down to basics, investments in mining and oil, manufacturing weak and infrastructure investments lacking, no clear solutions. Mexico benefits from American reshoring of factories in automobiles yet is the place where drug trafficking is happening and this is a problem of major dimensions, Brazil benefits from its vast agricultural wealth in the Amazon region, Argentina is seeking a mining boom, Venezuela after a deep shock from Chavez ideas and hyperinflation only now recovering, much of Latin America and Africa have missed the economic and technological changes that are underway in Asia for the last 50 years.