Ukraine has made progress in securing its situation in the Black Sea region through better surveillance and by reducing Russian naval advances in the Black Sea, according to one report. NYT's French says a look at different scenarios for the war in Ukraine shows a stalemate the most likely option. Ukraine's offensive in 2023 has advanced very slowly with Russia having heavily fortified its defences and having superior airpower. A route for Ukraine's grain exports was possible with UN & Turkey negotiated agreement for a Black Sea shipping route. Now that Russia has withdrawn from this agreement a new corridor is being established in the Black Sea using shipping routes that stay close to NATo countries borders on the Black Sea.