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This analysis from The Times of London provides critical information on the strategy for successfully tackling the coronavirus following the example of South Korea and progress in Britain.

The random community testing is key to getting an idea of the scale of infections in the community at large. The critical ratio called reproduction ratio tell one if the virus is under control and how lockdowns can be lifted. For Britain this 0.7 estimated by Imperial College. It has a 2 week lag. 1.0 or close to 1.0 is not good. Germany after being at about 0.7 has moved up to 1.0 with 2 week lag in information says the Robert Koch Institute. This means a lot of work ahead, it won't be easy.

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The critical variable in knowing whether lockdowns of cities and countries are working is called the coronavirus RO, or reproduction ratio. This ratio measures the average number of people infected by a carrier A. It could be that he infects 1 person at work and transport call it B people , or in large gatherings call it C people he infects 2 persons, or in other surroundings such as restaurants he infects 1 person call it D people. The people A has infected B+C+D are the ones now not infected by A with the lockdowns such as in New York, Italy, Germany, UK and France. It is determined by global health experts that the number of B+C+D is about an average of 4 persons infected by 1 person A with coronavirus, though it may be much higher in practice in some areas. The natural rate of RO or reproduction ratio is considered by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to be 3.86 or about 4, if no lockdown or social distancing or other prevention is practiced. This in a situation where people behaved as before unaware that the virus was around them. Governments such as New York and France, UK, Germany are including this key variable in their determination of how long a lockdown lasts, and for determining if the reopening is not going the right way or failing. In such situations the lockdown would be reinstated, or if it is a phased reopening such as in the U.S. and other countries go back to the previous phase. In Italy and Germany the RO reproduction ratio for coronavirus is estimated by official experts at 0.8. Germany's RO estimated by the Robert Koch Institute and Italy's by Franco Locatelli, scientific advisor to the government. In New York the margin is thin- with RO of 0.9, estimate from the state's governor. In France which has one of the tightest lockdowns of all with a document required to go outside it is at 0.6, the figure coming from the prime minister Mr. Philippe. In the UK it is below 1.0 but no accurate figure is reported. As Dr. Birx- leading the coordinated response in the U.S. - emphasizes over and over again this is a very contagious virus, about which not much is known. Social distancing, wearing masks, basic prevention measures such as frequent handwashing, and not gathering in large numbers of people, is essential for defeating this virus. This has to be followed up with extensive testing and contact tracing to win this fight.   ...

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The US is working with its allies to find out the true origins of the coronavirus, bringing together intelligence, the scientific community, allies and putting in every effort as a priority. Being checked is whether the coronavirus originated in a lab in Wuhan, China. 

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After reading this editorial in the WSJ about the origins of the coronavirus, readers will have more questions about EcoHealth Alliance nonprofit which sent $3.4 million to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) for  research with potential for risky consequences to world public health if something went wrong.  What is gain of function research and what purpose is served in making virus more infectious and contagious such that the National Institutes of Health would send funding overseas for such research are questions that readers may have. Were all the risks considered for such research overseas. The editorial says the US Congress is not showing interest in the origins and the US president Biden has to take up this- some readers might have a question what would make the US Congress not interested in this when coronavirus has affected the US, India, Brazil, Europe, and the poorest countries on earth in unimaginable ways. Can such important matters as world public health fall under the authority of one person, such as Dr. Fauci and other health officials from one country or two countries, when other countries such as India, Brazil, UK, France, Italy, Germany, EU countries, are gravely affected. Global public health has suffered badly and billions of people around the world, in the poorest countries as well as the people in US and Europe have suffered unimaginably in 2020 and 2021 as a consequence of poor decisions. Much needs to be done to get the people themselves informed about public health and how it can be shaped in the future. ...

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Berliners were leaving for smaller towns nearby even before the pandemic. This trend will accelerate. The situation is like that of Paris, New York, London and other cities.

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This article in The Lancet published in February 2018 throws much light on how the ban on gain of function research on virus was lifted -research that carries with it the danger of increasing transmission of virus if something unexpected happens in the manipulation of a virus. It was lifted in 2018 in the US by officials in the US Health Ministry, NIH and HHS. The Cambridge group of scientists and experts opposed lifting the ban on such dangerous research that could make the virus more contagious through manipulation. Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of Harvard School of Public Health wrote at the time that the lab research to create a more lethal strain of virus could lead to "an accidental pandemic" yet he was ignored. The public in America and in the world is unaware of how this created serious risks for public health in the world through the coronavirus.  Did US health officials lift the ban on such research without consulting other countries such as India, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, and the EU on its ramifications. Were public health experts and the publics themselves in the US and around the world not drawn into the discussion of public health and the dangers that existed. Not only did officials in HHS and NIH restart the research by lifting the ban but also sent funds overseas for such research- was this a proper or thoughtful action considering the risks involved.  Is enhanced surveillance of virus- a dubious benefit from manipulation of a virus- something a few health officials can decide for the whole world in addition to the US. How are health officials in one or two countries responsible to the people in India, Brazil, Europe and the poorest populations in the world in the world in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, people who have suffered devastating consequences from transmissibility of the virus, including children and older people with health problems. India, Brazil, Italy, Spain, France, UK, and other countries worst hit by the coronavirus must ask serious questions about how they can protect their people if institutions in the US and international institutions are seen as failing to protect world public health. ...

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The UK government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, says coronavirus testing has not been scaled quickly enough. Public health experts warn that Downing Street is in the position to face "an unforgiving reckoning." The UK has done 5400 tests per million population, the U.S. 8894 tests per million, and Germany 15,700 per million, according to data from Worldometer website. UK got off to a slow start.  Experts at Imperial College, London, say a major problem is the lack of contact trace, test, isolate. Contact tracing having fallen behind. The government is relying too much they say on an app from Google and Apple to do the tracing because for this kind of work humans are needed, "boots on the ground" are needed. South Korea and Taiwan have successfully used people to do the contact tracing by using access to cellphone carrier data that was made possible from protocols established in earlier MERS crisis. ...

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Jeremy Hunt, head of the Health Select Committee and Health Secretary 2012-2018, says Britain needs to take up mass contact tracing as its next national mission. Britain he says has passed 20,000 tests a day for coronavirus. America has passed 150,000 tests a day. Both more than South Korea. What is missing when compared to South Korea and Taiwan is mass contact tracing.  The app TraceTogether is not enough, as it was used by only 20% of Singapore's population. Only South Korea and Taiwan are able to open up the economy, have workplaces and life function close to normal through extensive testing and mass contact tracing, with feet on the ground. This is the only path that has worked with South Korea successfully out of the lockdown. This means "feet on the street." Making these calls requires skills, getting information, getting cooperation, offering guidance, and ensuring people isolate themselves after contact with an infected person. Sometimes it is by phone and sometimes in person wearing full PPE. They need to be sensitive enough in talking to someone feeling ill and to see how home isolation can be achieved, who else the coronavirus infected person or someone in the chain of contacts has been in contact with. Mr. Hunt says no effort should be spared in doing this as the millions of jobs in Britain, of people without work, the economy, and the need for light at the end of the tunnel of lockdowns, requires a way out. A huge task but a lot of impossible tasks are being tackled in the health services. The resources of Britain, every spare civil servant, every administrator not working, every one who can do this, needs to be enlisted to do this. The same task needs to be tackled in America, and in other countries as a national mission. ...

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Richard Levitan, a physician expert on patient oxygen levels treated patients at a New York Hospital, and found this very important fact about coronavirus and its attack on patient lungs. Early detection and treatment, use of pulse oximeter monitoring, are shown to be critical for coronavirus.  Covid or cornavirus pneumonia is different from normal pneumonia in that it attacks the lungs but patients can be low on oxygen without realizing it through shortness of breath. As it turns out and confirmed by this physician expert who has invented intubation techniques and served at a New York hospital to understand why coronavirus was killing patients, the patient simply breathes faster and deeper without knowing it and is not short of breath even though his oxygen saturation is going down. This delays treatment- use of pulse oximeter is therefore recommended, an easy test placed on a finger that shows the oxygen reading. This kind of fast breathing then suddenly leads to the complete collapse of the patient's lungs, which is why so many end up in hospitals late and end up later on ventilators. British prime minister Boris Johnson received this kind of monitoring and early treatment to be able to return to work.  ...

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OECD forecasts show an acceleration of US economic growth in 2021 with the $1.9 trillion aid package of the Biden administration. OECD forecasts show pre-pandemic levels of output reached by mid 2021, 6 months earlier than expected. Global output is expected to grow by 5.6% in 2021, after declining 3.4% in 2020. Main reason- US economy is seen expanding at 6.5%, twice as fast as previously forecast and fastest since 1984. OECD sees the importance of stimulus coinciding with vaccination of the population. The pace in the US with 18 million vaccinated in March and the goal of vaccinating the whole population by May is part of the reason given for the vigorous growth. Astonishingly the OECD sees the US economy larger in end of year 2022 now than it had forecast before the pandemic. For other countries such as India with slower vaccination progress and large population, OECD forecast is for 8% shortfall in growth from what was expected before the pandemic at end of 2022.  This is an amazing bit of good news amid all the dismay and confusion surrounding the coronavirus lockdowns. ...

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This group of 26 leading scientists from Australia, France, Britain and the US are calling for a new international full, open and unrestricted forensic investigation into the origins of the coronavirus in its original location of Wuhan. This happens as scientists on the WHO investigation team in Wuhan say they did not have unrestricted access to conduct their investigation. The Biden administration has restored ties to the World Health Organization after the Trump administration cut ties on this issue of transparency. The Biden administration says transparency is an essential condition for the US as it seeks to continue US participation in WHO. The US, India, France, Britain and other European nations have a long history of participation in WHO and were original founders. Recent flawed election processes at WHO and the lack of effective leadership from western foundations have led to the lack of effective leadership of WHO that prevailed in post war world for the first five decades of the organization. Much of that leadership was from western nations, India and Japan, during a period in which the pandemics were managed limiting their spread from the areas of origin. ...

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The British public is very conservative when it comes to reopening. 73% support prioritizing the health of citizens only 17% say prioritize the economy. This is the highest of industrialized nations, Japan being the next highest with 60% supporting prioritizing health only 16% in Japan saying the economy.  For Boris Johnson as he makes the speech on Sunday May 10 on reopening the political margin for error in decision is nonexistent. Britain's tabloid press and other media simply took the idea that to heck with it lets reopen reflecting a lack of caution in the headlines after Mr. Johnson expressed his intention to reopen. After seeing this Johnson and his closest advisers met without his hawkish ministers to reflect on what was happening in the country. The British government's scientific advisers say whether there are 100,000 deaths by the end of the year depends on many factors including testing, contact tracing, the way the lockdown is eased, the situation at nursing homes, and other government action  to prevent a resurgence in infections. At the meeting with Gove, Sunak Raab and Hancock, Mr Johnson stepped back and reversed any plans except for mild reopening- giving people more time outside for exercize, opening limited locations such as garden centres and advising strongly to wear masks on public transport. Both Johnson and Dominic Cummings his adviser had coronavirus, and Johnson spent some time in ICU. They know the impact of the coronavirus from their own personal experience.  For Johnson there is only one chance, Tory senior advisers say the public will forgive mistakes going into coronavirus, but will never forgive mistakes getting out of cotronavirus. He told Keir Starmer of Labour in parliament that he bitterly regrets what has happened in nursing homes. The scientists have warned him that the staff at nursing homes could seed communities once again. And that the coronavurus R ratio (1 being the level it starts growing again) could go up back to 1. This is the situation on May 10 as Johnson prepares to speak to the nation on Sunday at 7 pm, as he shifts to "maximum caution." ...

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Janice Turner writes about all those empty calories that are being taken without a thought. For children obesity starts with cereals such as Frosted Sugar Flakes with extremely high sugar content, and other cereals that have high sugar content with fancy names, says this report of how people unconsciously take in so many empty calories. Sugar content that can range to as high as 37%. This builds up disease in our bodies, and obesity. Obesity acts during this time of coronavirus to create a wild fire.

 

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International aid arrives from the UK, France, US, and the European Union, as India faces a surge of the coronavirus in April 2021. A flight with oxygen and ventilators arrives from the UK. The EU is pooling resources, France is preparing flights with equipment. The United States Biden administration says it will release some of the 60 million doses of Astra Zeneca vaccine to India that remain unused in the US to address vaccine shortages.

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Tara Parker Pope of the NYT has this advice about protecting yourself against coronavirus variants after talking to many infectious disease and other experts. Don't let your guard down she says and suggests some of the same precautions that were taken in earlier waves of the coronavirus, from masks to social distancing and prudent decisions about travel and shopping.

Vaccines offer protection against common coronavirus variants such as B.1.1.7  from UK. It is still wise to follow the prudent rules that were followed before.

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Already vaccination experts at the Baylor College of Medicine cited here say they foresee another wave of the coronavirus in the Southern US because of vaccine skepticism barriers to vaccination, and much of the population not being vaccinated. The percentage of the population in the Carolinas, Georgia, Georgia and Louisiana, that has both doses of vaccine is low. About 50% have had just one dose. In southern states Mississippi and Alabama the vaccination rates are much lower leaving large parts of the population unvaccinated. The widespread presence of the Delta variant in the UK and the R rate being between 1.00 and 1.2 in UK shows that the UK even with higher vaccination rates than the US is still facing a danger of another wave as it reopens.  The ominous aspect of this is that from just over 400,000 the vaccinations per day dropped to 316,000i n the US. This means there will be a period when vaccination drive is stalled while the reopening is fully underway with a new contagious variant twice as contagious as the original coronavirus. This leaves the US at risk of another wave, with the south and western US, younger people who are out more and unvaccinated, more at risk.  ...

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Risks are increasing in the southeast and midwestern states in the US where vaccination rates are as low as 30%. The Delta variant of coronavirus is now the dominant virus strain in the US. It is highly transmissible, estimated to be about 50% more transmissible than the original virus. The region covering Missouri, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska, as well as Wyoming is affected, in addition to the southeastern states, as these states have lower rates of vaccination and vaccine skepticism. As communities in the US and UK reduce pandemic restrictions and open for the summer the risks of last year are being brought up by experts. 

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About a third of recent coronavirus infections in the UK are from schoolchildren ages 10-19. The UK after a headstart in its vaccination drive has fallen behind other European countries and the US in the vaccination of children and teenagers. UK began vaccinating children in August far behind the US and Europe. On top of this UK under Boris Johnson decided to drop almost all public health restrictions during the summer. The change in Health Secretary happened on June 26, 2021 with Matt Hancock's resignation. The new Health Secretary Javid was to review the health restrictions in place till July 19. The sense of caution and preparedness that prevailed earlier as fallen short since July 2021 with the lack of coronavirus prevention measures such as masks, social distancing and vaccine mandates that were taken in Italy, France, Germany and other European countries, as well as in the US.

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 State tax shortfalls in the US were expected as consumer purchases dropped sharply in 2020 from the impact of coronavirus lockdowns. Yet this has not happened as total taxes for all states have remained essentially flat, only down less than 1% in 2020 over 2019. Widespread intervention by the US government helped households, businesses and financial markets, helping avoid the pessimistic projections. Stable employment for the more affluent households with steady jobs working from home brought in stronger tax revenues. The situation improved for most states in the second half of 2020, with roughly half the states taking in more revenue in 2020 than in 2019.  Idaho and Utah which attracted workers from the West Coast, had some of the highest tax revenue increases. The pandemic spared the high income jobs which generate most of the revenue helping to create surpluses in Colorado, Vermont, Georgia, Maine, California, Maryland and Virginia. In California a surge in initial public offerings in 2020 helped total tax revenue increase by 2.5%. Even a state like Illinois had personal tax collections higher in 2020 than 2019. This sets aside some of the fears that the pandemic caused about loss of jobs in state and local governments. With assistance from the Biden administration to state and local governments in the  $1.9 trillion aid package for 2021 this job loss could be restored to aid economic recovery. ...

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The variant first identified in India called the Delta variant is 60% more infectious than the Kent variant found in the UK. The Delta variant is now the dominant variant in the UK. There is concern that this could lead to another wave just as the UK is reopening in the summer. There are over 6000 daily cases in the UK this week. The estimated R number is now 1.00 to 1.2 following the number being 1.00 to 1.1 in the earlier week. A R number over 1.0 suggests greater spread of the coronavirus. An R number of 1.1 suggests the number of cumulative cases is taking off meaning that the UK is at risk of a sudden surge in the coronavirus in June or July 2021. India faced a wave from the new variant's higher rate of infectious spread. leading to a sudden surge in May 2021 to 400,000 daily cases before it was brought down by June 1 to about 100,000 The number of hospitalizations in such a wave is estimated to be higher in UK than the previous waves, requiring the government to be more vigilant today. Restrictions on travel from Portugal are being put in place in UK as a precaution. After repeated waves as a consequence of complacency with the coronavirus the lesson now is to take steps early and take aggressive action in advance. ...

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The third or booster dose of vaccine is needed to take out the Omicron variant. The UK Health Security Agency analyzed data from 581 Omicron cases and thousands of Delta cases to calculate how effective vaccines such as Pfizer and Astra Zeneca were against the Omicron variant. This early analysis shows a third booster dose prevents around 75% of people from getting any coronavirus symptoms. The double dose of the vaccine however provides good protection against severe coronavirus that needed hospital treatment says the UK Health Security Agency. Of equal concern is the rate of spread of the Omicron variant. Here this BBC report shows graphs of UK National Health Security Agency which show the rate of spread is rapid with cases doubling every 2-3 days. For the UK which on December 10 had about 1265 cases this means says this BBC report that the number of Omicron cases could be well above 100,000 in the UK by the end of December. The BBC graph shows the curve for Omicron cases moving in a close to vertical direction upwards. Reports say the experience in South Africa where the Omicron variant was first detected is similar in pattern causing rapid spread. ...

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Actions being taken in the UK to prevent spread from variants of coronavirus in July 2021 as increasing number of British tourists visit France, Greece and Portugal. Quarantine is now required at home for 8 days for vaccinated people from UK coming back from France because of a rise of cases in France