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From 2010 to 2015 migration from Central American countries increased five fold because of recurrent drought hitting farms in the region. This is seen as an impact of climate change. 

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The prices of soyabeans have fallen by half since July and corn prices dropped from $7.54 a bushel in July in central Iowa to $3.81 a bushel Oct 21. But fertilizer and seed costs could go up 40% for next spring's plantings. This year net US farm incomes will hit $95.7 billion up 10% from $86 billion in 2007 and nearly double the $58 billion of 2006, according to the Agriculture Department. In the boom years farmland prices shot up where prices jumped by double digits percentages for 4 years, now Purdue University economist predicts declining prices moderately for next 5 years. The farmers are being squeezed on both sides. Declining farmland prices reduces borrowing power. With the commodities boom prices of everything from fertilizer to harvesting combines went up. Prices of fertilizer are not coming down even as the price of oil has come down. So farmers are reducing the amount of plantings they will make this coming year which should lead to reduced farm production and lower agricultural exports. In the boom years swelling middle class in places like China increased demand for US agricultural products. But with the global crisis and reduced demand from other countries prices are coming down. ...

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In a glut market for potatoes in Europe this is what happens. From $600 euros a ton in 2023 to zero for the price of potatoes in the spot market  in Belgium in 2026. Europe has asurplus f 5 million metric tons of potatoes of the kind used to make french fries. In the past it could be shipped as exports to the US. Not anymore US has tariffs to protect US farmers in Idaho and other states. An Idaho potato maker financed Micron in the 1960's which now is a major chip maker nearing valuation of 1 trillion dollars in the stock markets. You have this situation where a thousand tons of potatoes stacked 15 feet high in a Belgian warehouse is dumped back into the ground. The Belgian farmer D'haeyere took a loss of $160,000 euros on soil, seedlings, fertilizer and labor. He is planting only 17 acres for 2027 down from 170 acres he planted  this year. Belgium is the largest exporter of french fries in the world.

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Of the $19 billion in aid to farmers for the coronavirus, $16 billion of the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program, goes in direct payments to farmers and rancher with checks going out end of May. Another $3 billion goes to mass purchases of dairy, meat and produce that will be distributed through food banks. Faced with loss of sales with restaurants and schools closed, and disruptions in deliveries to grocery stores, farmers in the U.S. have stopped or slowed production. As a result huge quantities of food that can't be sold are being destroyed. Plowing under thousands of acres of vegetables, dumping millions of gallons of milk, and destroying eggs. In addition to this aid Agriculture Secretary Perdue says the department is using funds set aside under the larger coronavirus relief aid package of $2 trillion for the U.S., and funds from the Commodity Credit Corporation. Mr. Perdue is himself a farmer from Georgia, who was governor for eight years. These funds are separate from the $28 billion to farmers being distributed by USDA to offset losses from loss of sales to China. USDA plans to make monthly purchases of $100 million each of fresh produce, dairy products and meat, and work with the nation's food distributors to assemble a pre-approved box of food to be given out at food banks and other outlets. ...

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China's farms are becoming larger as more farmers rent out their land and live on the resulting income. This shift is leading to the development of larger firms that use modern equipment requiring less labor. Typical is a farmer who decided to live in retirement after renting out his land for about $500, income on which he lives comfortably in a well manicured courtyard home in the village.  These farmers do not want to join their children who now live in the cities. As one farmer says "fallen leaves go back to their roots."  China's agriculture is not dominated by large commercial farms as it is in the U.S. This process is now beginning in China as more farmers prefer to rent out their land and live off the resulting income, resulting in larger farms and automated operations as in the U.S.  and Europe. Farmers now feel more confident about land rights to rent out their land. China first went through the communes under Mao, followed by return of land in small plots to farmers in the 90's. The changes today start a new phase which will change the look of Chinese agriculture. ...

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Neil Irwin in the NYT why the U.S. China Phase 1 Trade Agreement is more than a hill of soyabeans as he puts it, more than about all the soyabeans that the U.S. farmers can sell to China. China's economy was seeing the effect of U.S. tariffs. Additional tariffs to cover all imports from China to the U.S. would have worsened this. China avoided this by agreeing to Phase 1. The U.S. had looked for some enforcement mechanism based on China putting this down in a written agreement particularly for avoiding subsidies to state enterprises and improper access to U.S. advanced technologies. China's reluctance to do this led to Mr. Trump saying that China had reversed its position and Trump expanding the tariffs stage by stage. These issues are now set aside for Phase 2 still to be negotiated. Both sides taking what they could get. China relief from the threat of tariffs on all exports. The U.S. under Mr. Lighthizer's negotiating leadership retaining the enforcement idea through the tariffs that are still in place of 25% on half of China's exports to the U.S. The bonus for Mr. Trump is the goodwill China generates by agreeing to buy all the U.S. farmers can produce, farmers having not only stood behind Mr. Trump but also forming a key part of his support base. China will continue to compete in technological areas with the U.S., and the state enterprise model which worked for China as Mr. Xi tells visitors will continue. Phase 2 is just that Phase 2, when and if it can be negotiated between Trump with his negotiator Lighthizer and Xi with his negotiator Liu He. On key points neither side is budging. A key goal for Mr. Trump is to put the trade surplus China enjoys of $300 plus billion a year with the U.S. on a serious downward path, and bring so many of the jobs and manufacturing back home. On this trade data for 2019 and the plan for 2020 of both countries is clear. It should be down each year by 10-20% for the next few years, a major achievement of Mr. Lighthizer, who did the same with  Japan under president Reagan. ...

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Brazil's ever increasing production of soyabeans and investments in Brazil by China and US's Cargill ADM result in a oversupply of soyabeans in world's markets leading to lower prices for American farmers. 70% of soyabeans imports by China were from Brazil in 2024 and Cofco state owned agricultural company in China is building a large port terminal on Brazil's coast to handle soyabeans and other exports. Trade tensions with the US mean there are no written agreements farmers can count on for soyabean exports to China. China purchased 13 million metric tons from Argentina last month and committed to buying 25 million metric tons in 2026-2028. Argentina lifted its 26% export tax for the first $7 billion in agricultural exports to bolster it's peso recently. US is turning to other markets in Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand and Europe to make up for volume lost to Brazil. For September and October there is a 45% increase in US exports in 2025 resulting from these non-Chinese buyers. No mention is made of India, yet India could in future be a significant buyer of soyabeans because of thenutritional value of soyabeans in an anti-cancer diet and the high protein content which would make Indian diets healthier. In agriculture farmers are not the ones who develop new tastes and new trends in new markets, yet this effort should be part of farmer's outreach to other nations and other cultural food habits with shifts to healthy nutrition. ...

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Farmers near Jodhpur, Rajasthan and the farming of Guar beans which are used for hydraulic fracturing to produce natural gas.

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Dutch farmers protest a plan by the government to cut nitrogen emissions in line with EU laws by half by 2030, by cutting dairy farms by a third. Recently the Dutch Citizens Movement, a farmer protest party called BBB, won provincial elections. The government is now looking at how to meet protester demands and lower the goals away from dairy farming. The agricultural sector is large in Netherlands and it's agricultural exports are next to only the US, says NYT.

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Mark Rutte of the Netherlands ends a 13 year career as prime minister. His four party coalition collapsed when he proposed strict asylum rules. The Farmer Citizen party won the most votes in recent provincial elections with its rural base among farmers opposed to new restrictions on livestock herds with strict nitrogen emissions controls. Denmark is the second largest exporter of agricultural products after the US. This rural base party leads in polls. It has created new sentiment against what it sees as a globalist plot to increase immigration and destroy traditional ways of life.  It also capitalizes on the cost of living with higher energy costs.

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With China slowing down imports of US agricultural products farmers in the US may be given priority for assistance from the DJT administration, including the use of the funds from tariffs on incoming goods.

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Fronterra Cooperative Group Ltd. cuts it forecast payout for the current dairy season to 4.70 New Zealand dollars per kilo (U.S. $3.70) for milk solids, a sharp decline from NZ$8.40 in 2013. This reduces farmer incomes by NZ$6 billion. Farmers are culling herds and cutting the size of farms as it becomes unprofitable to remain in dairy farming. Milk makes up 30% of overseas sales for New Zealand. Lending to farmers increased 42% since 2008 to NZ$34.5 billion.

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There are about 2.4 million workers on American farms. 44% of them are undocumented workers says the Department of Labor.  They do jobs such as picking the fruits and vegetables that are part of the food supply. Deporting them all will increase prices of farm products as harvesting fruits and vegetables will be difficult. During the Eisenhower administration in 1953 deportation plan large growers in California and New Mexico used seasonal agricultural labor from Mexico, and the nation's food supply of vegetables and fruits depended on these workers. These companies lobbied hard for ways to keep these workers. On the other side were smaller farm owners who used fewer migrant workers. The complication this time 2024 is that unlike in 1953 under Eisenhower mass deportation when the border was otherwise peaceful, in 2024 the US has faced a decade unprecedented in its history of flows of fentanyl and drugs across the southern border. The deportation is about migrants who are not easily integrated culturally into the US, about the dangers of illegal entry in such large numbers that it disturbs the quiet life of the small towns and cities in the US. The US needs immigrants but in a planned way with legal entry, and no flows of drugs across the Border, that protects the American people and serves America's interests.    ...

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NYT's Simon Romero looks at Cumano in Venezuela, and the breakdown of water, electricity,  industry, and education systems in this city. How efforts to solve inequality without a grasp of how a modern economy works can lead to something worse. And how good intentions are not enough, lack of understanding and knowledge of of a government (Chavez and successors), on how industry, infrastructure for water and electricity, education and healthcare works is dangerous. Immersion in the rhetoric (Chavismo) makes things worse. Appeals to Simon Bolivar (history), mass communication (Alo Presidente), religious symbolism (socialist motherland and victory) and us vs them, (the marginalized poor and the established elites), mean little and take an entire nation backwards for making industrial progress and infrastructure building,  creating a strong modern economy. It in fact turns out to be dangerous and counterproductive, breaking up the very productive forces that are needed to build a modern economy. The Japanese visited and carefully studied the US transformation into an industrial advanced economy in the 1890's Meiji era, the Chinese visited and studied the Japanese plus the US transformation into industrial advanced economies in the 1990's, and Indians visited and studied the Japanese, Chinese, and American transformation into industrial advanced economies by 2014 in Gujarat State, to spread that model to all states to achieve the goal of building infrastructure, manufacturing, and modernization. America made some careful choices under Lincoln, TR, FDR, Truman and Eisenhower to achieve this transformation. Bringing factory labor, farmers, professional classes, and factory owners together under FDR with his first experiment in New York state building modern institutions with Secretary of Labor Frances Perkins, and industrial interests, then repeating this across 51 states in the Union as president of the US. Frances Perkins documents this in her book "The Roosevelt I Know." ...

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Swiss dairy farmers cutting cheese production by 5-10% to tackle temporary US tariff rate of 39%.  Gruyere and Emmentaler cheese to US make up 13% of Swiss cheese exports. Swiss dairy farmers are looking for markets in Asia and waiting for trade negotiations to bring tariffs down so that they can bounce back. The cow is sacred in Swiss Alpine country because of its role in cheese and mil chocolate production for overseas markets. Switzerland's cheese exports are $830 million in 2024 compared to about $7 billion for Germany, $6 billion for Netherlands, $5 billion for Italy and $4 billion for France, and $2.5 billion for the US. Overall Switzerland is a small exporter for a country the size of Virginia. Much of the extra milk production from a bumper harvest in 2025 can be converted into baby milk powder  and exported to China and India. In trade negotiations the Swiss became complacent even condescending and took the US market for granted. This will now change as the Swiss now have time for some soul searching on how best to negotiate a deal that respects the interests of both nations. ...

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Paul Krugman points out the problems in rural America that need attention. Integrating rural America faced with problems of joblessness and a sense of being ignored are part of the effort to pull the nation together. Krugman points to economic forces that have pushed the other way. Yet it is the role of government to support farming communities and farmers in what was till the 1950's and 1960's a nation that was both rural and urban. With the rise of tech companies in the last 2 decades problems of rural communities were pushed into the background. 

The founders of the U.S. and the Continental Congress that drafted the U.S. Constitution did this had rural communities in mind in what was then in 1790's a largely rural country. Rural states have the same representation as larger more populous urban states under the U.S. Constitution making it impossible to ignore the rural areas and farmers without damaging the public interest.

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California has lots of water after record breaking rains in 2024 but this is not the situation in the Central Valley leading agricultural region of California and the nation. Farmers in the San Joaquin Valley in California say they are getting a reduced allottment of water because of concern about endangered fish species. Farmers in the Central Valley the fruit and vegetable basket of California will get just 40% of their usual alottment of water this year and will plant less crops. Some ranches planting only 60% instead of 80% of their land. In 2014, 2015 and 2022 droughts the farmers lost about $7 billion and it cost 40,000 jobs, say University of California researchers. This area is a top producer of almonds, pistachios, and tomatoes. Westland Water District, which covers this area and is largest irrigator in the US, has a study that shows correlation between water and poverty in this part of California. Just when it is recovering the water supply is being cut. ...

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Liz Whitehurst is one of many young people who are giving up jobs in offices to take to farming. They are not from farm families and bring a new way and exciting way of looking at farming free of the pesticides and other practices common today. Only 2% of U.S. land is being used for growing fruits and vegetables, according to the Union of American Scientists cited in the Guardian newspaper, and this needs to at least double in acreage if American needs are to be met. Only 15% of Americans get the daily requirement for fruits and vegetables- so desperately needed is this  to lower the BMI of the 70% of overweight Americans with BMI over 50. In the light of this crisis the shift of young people to farming is an encouraging sign.  In 2015 Liz, 32 years, decided to buy a 3 acre farm in Upper Marboro, Md, giving up benefits and better pay at nonprofit jobs in Washington state.  Here she is shown picking up Aragula leaves in the November chill. She is not alone. She is joining a movement that is bringing highly educated, former urban first time farmers as the demand for better food, for local and sustainable food, especially fruits and vegetables grows in the U.S. Year on Year there is a 20% increase of farmers in states like California, Nebraska, South Dakota in the 25-34 age group. In the 2014 USDA Census this group is growing at 2-3% just when other groups are shrinking by double digits. These farmers are more likely to connect with the community supported agriculture (CSA) prorams and markets, to grow organically and limit pesticide and fertilizer use. They tend to have farms less than 50 acres. Liz leases the house and the fields from a neighboring couple in the 70's, growing organically certified peppers, cabbages, tomatoes and salad greens kale to aragula, rotating fields. On Tues, Thurs. and Fri. she and two friends are to be seen waking up in the early hours of darkness to kneel in mud and cut the greens. What motivates them is having a positive impact, to do that so it is immediate and you can see it making a difference, says Liz. Still young farmers face many hurdles, including student loan debt, and finding ways to meet the larger needs for online grocery service or the grocery chains. Yet a trend is taking shape for small and middle farms that provides some optimism as the number of farmers shrink significantly overall. Most alarmingly it is the lack of national and local policies to meet the health crisis of rising BMI's right at this level of local farms and community farms for local produce. Lack of any consciousness about this, even though good health in the U.S. as in other countries has always rested on what you are eating, long before processed foods became the norm this is the way the world met nutrition needs.    ...

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Years of low prices for soybeans and corn with competition from Russia and Brazil, combined with tariff war with China roiling agricultural markets, are leading to the highest bankruptcies in a decade for farmers in the U.S. in 2019. Dairy farmers are hit too with low milk prices.

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China's agriculture based on small farms is undergoing a change as the government pushes automated farming and large farms in the face of limited imports from the U.S. China put tariffs on agricultural imports from the U.S. in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. China's Agriculture Ministry says it will build 254 "strong agricultural industrial towns" as models for the country. President Xi stated on a visit to northeastern province Heilongjiang, that "unilateralism and trade protectionism are rising, forcing us to take the road of self reliance." The yield per hectare in the U.S. for soybeans is about twice that in China. Mechanized farming is limited in China because it would eliminate many jobs in rural areas. As the state has ownership of land and farmers merely use land, farmers are less likely to take risks with large long term investments. It can be risky for farmers to rent their land use rights to others, which would lead to consolidation.  Now a separate "Made in 2025" plan makes upgrading farm machinery and equipment one of the 10 goals. China may lift ban on genetically modified seeds now that ChemChina has acquired Swiss seed company Syngenta. China plans to partner with Asian Development Bank to provide $6 billion of loans, grants and investment to fund a list of development projects in rural areas, to modernize agriculture. WSJ cites a project of consolidation into an 8200 acre farm in Shandong province that  has increased yields 43% by investing in new farm equipment and planting machines, pesticide spraying drones. Scaling up has made this possible.    ...

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The U.S. Agriculture Department cuts its estimate of corn crop yield per acre in the U.S. by 15.5%, as a result of the severe drought in 2012. Agriculture Secretary Vilsack, says the situation for farmers is better this time than during the last drought in 1988. Now 85% of farmers have crop insurance compared to 25% in 1988. The Agriculture Department estimate is for a 3-4% increase in prices in 2013. Capital Economics says the impact on GDP in the U.S. will be about 0.1%. Because 40% of the corn crop goes into ethanol production there is renewed debate about the 2005/2007 Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires 13.2 billion gallons of corn based biofuel be made in 2012. Worldwide the bad weather conditions in Brazil, India and Russia are worsening the outlook for food supplies. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization says global food prices increased by 6% in July 2012, with corn prices up 23%.