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The union vote will be critical in this election in states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan. Mr. Trump has worked hard to bring manufacturing in the U.S. back to the days after World War II when the U.S. was the dominant nation in manufacturing.  This report says the fight to improve the prospects of workers in manufacturing in midwestern and northeastern states could determine the election in 2020. It looks at the situation in Pennsylvania.

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Pennsylvania is one of the critical states in the 2020 U.S. election. It is also one of the states hit hard by the coronavirus. Pennsylvania has also seen the impact of layoffs in the vital steel industry during two decades of neglect by previous administrations till the tariffs on steel from China by president Trump began a reversal of this trend. Unemployment is high in Pennsylvania as a result of the pandemic. 51 of 67 counties in the state recorded unemployment rate increases for 2020 that are in the top 20% for the U.S. Pennsylvania and Michigan are two critical states for the 2020 election. Pennsylvania has done much worse than other states including Michigan when it comes to the impact of the pandemic on unemployment rates in all counties. Voters could decide to blame the Democratic governor for lockdown restrictions  that worsened unemployment or president Trump for his approach to the coronavirus. There is also concern among conservative voters about the kind of change they seek between steady improvement in unemployment and a shift to radical changes in the economy. ...

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A red wave fails to appear, says this report in The Guardian of the US 2022 midterm elections for the US Congress. A key Senate seat in Pennsylvania goes to Democrat Fetterman. Other races are tight and the final results will take time. Ron De Santis wins Florida as a Republican with a wide margin and is seen as looking for the Republican nomination for president in 2024. The Georgia Senate seat looks to be headed for a runoff.

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Biden hopes to kickstart the green hydrogen industry in the US with $7 billion in subsidies for new technologies and infrastructure. Green hydrogen is made by splitting water or H2O into its component parts and new cost effective technologies are needed. WSJ shows where in the US this money is going. About $1.75 billion will go to Appalachia and Mid Atlantic states such as West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania with Pennsylvania a key state in 2024 election.

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Pew Research Center analysis of Biden's 2020 victory shows which groups played the big part in Biden's win. First time voters in 2018, 6% of total voters, mostly younger voters gave Biden a 26% margin over Trump. Other parts of the electorate that shifted in 2020 are Independents and Moderates who shifted to Biden. Catholics also shifted to Biden. Substantial leads in these voting blocs made the difference for Biden. In Arizona with Latinos, and Pennsylvania with the black population Biden did better than in the overall US electorate. In 2024 these same blocs are likely to play a key part. President Biden's visit to Ireland was well planned, his appeal to Irish roots genuinely felt and the connection made. His appeal to manufacturing workers is now based on accomplished results in fighting for worker's rights from teachers to railroad workers. Biden launched his campaign in front of a union audience, saying he saw things from the perspective of Scranton, and the working people he grew up with. In 2016 third party candidates got 6% of the vote, in 2020 only 2%. Of these voters Biden gained a 25% margin over Trump. Biden split the men's vote with Trump in 2020, compared to Trump's 11 point lead in 2016. Biden also maintained the share of women's votes of 54%  in the 2020 election. In 2024 the abortion issue is a significant factor for women. ...

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About 2.6 million eligible to vote people in Michigan and 3.5 million in Pennsylvania, and 1.3 million in Wisconsin did not vote in the 2016 election. The critical states this time are also Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and these three states went to the winner by less than 10,000 in Michigan, 20,000 in Wisconsin and 50,000 in Pennsylvania.  A NYT analysis of Census Bureau data for 2016 election reveals that most of these people who are eligible but do not vote have lost interest in both parties that show little interest in delivering for them. Many of them are shown to be lower income voters, voters doing 2 jobs, or voters struggling financially. Some are single child parents in today's social structures. Getting a small portion of this vote can make a difference in a close election.  From 1840 to 1900 the percent of voting age population that voted has been between 70 to 80%. By the 1920's this dropped to about 50%. And it has been around 55% since the period of the Great Depression except for elections in 1952 and 56 for General Eisenhower and 1960 for John Kennedy. Even Harry Truman's whistlestop train campaign in 1948 got only 51% out to vote. Even the Roosevelt FDR three campaigns in 1932, 1936 and 1940 got 52-58% of voting age population to vote. The highest of any election was the election that led to the Civil War in which Lincoln won where 81% of the voting age population voted. Is it possible that America was a relatively much more prosperous country in the period 1840-1900 before large scale immigration from poorer parts of Europe and then poorer parts of Latin America and Asia, and large scale urbanization. With ample land and independent farmers in the nineteenth century leaving less scope for the poverty that exists in urban areas and social decay in rural areas and small towns that is seen today. Resulting in a much more civic consciousness and awareness of America's future and destiny than exists today. By comparison voter turnout in India has increased to 66% in 2014 election and 67% in 2018 after alternating high and low between 50-60% since 1947. Some forecasts are for a high turnout in the U.S. in 2020 to exceed 60%. The bright side for democracy is shown by the 911 million people who voted in the last Indian election of 2018. ...

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Just 18% of the US population will decide who is the next president of the US. In 2020 even with a lead of 7 million votes Biden could have lost the election without 45,000 votes in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Mrs. Clinton with 2.9 million vote lead lost the Electoral College without 80,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The US Electoral College is unique among western countries and is based on a concept that the passions of the "general mass" of the population should be moderated by giving more power to smaller states. The US president is elected not by a direct vote but by a vote cast by state and its electoral college, and the total electoral college votes determines who won and who lost. The focus is on swingable states of which there were 10 in 2020. 

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Experts say about 110,000 votes separate Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that decided the 2016 presidential election in the U.S. giving Trump the win. Post election reflection in the Democratic party points to a disconnect between the establishment in both parties and the white working class. It is described as something that was not thought enough about even though as pointed out in Lyrarc, and in The Washington Post by columnists, and in news coverage about the inequality movement long before Bernie Sanders appeared in 2015. In the period when banks were favored over millions of homeowners facing foreclosure in 2010-2014, the surging stock market and the zero to to half percent interest on savings that hurt savings of most of the working class and lower middle class without stock investments, and the continuing problems in communities facing job losses from trade for the third decade. The hollowing out of the regions in Ontario from job losses from the Canadian industry helped Justin Trudeau win the Canadian election. In this election it helped Trump in crucial midwestern states, combined with a degree of indifference shown by establishment Democrats. Former Vermont governor Howard Dean is planning to run for chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Bernie Sanders says he backs Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison to be the next chair of the DNC. Jeff Weaver, campaign manager for Sanders, says the problem lies in what has been clear for some time now "that the centrist wing of the democratic party has no standing with working class and middle class  voters in this country." In 2016 only 51% of union households supported Clinton the lowest since 1980, 43% supported Trump. Obama won 59% of union households in 2008 and 58% in 2012 to 40% for Republican Romney. Trump picked up 3% of union households, Clinton lost 7% of union households, creating about a 10 point gap that would be magnified in industrial states where union jobs are concentrated, for about 18% of the people who voted in the election, enough to create the shortfall in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsyslvania. Fed chairman Janet Yellen pointed out the problems at an Inequality conference in Boston in 2014, pretty stark in its reminder that inequality had surged to levels not seen since the depression of the thirties, with 62 million households having a net worth of $11,000. Krugman and other economists had pointed this out on the pages of the NYT. Yet the post election reflection in the media is as if this is some special insight when it was clear for all to see, and covered in depth in Lyrarc for years since 2008. There is voter fatigue after 8 years of one party in power as pointed out by Obama campaign strategist, David Axelrod. The loss of union enthusiasm made the task of  a third term for the Democratic party even more difficult.     ...

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This NYT report looks at the 20 counties within 5 battleground states in the midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, eastern state of Pennsylvania, southern state of North Carolina and western state of Arizona. It shows the percentage of votes gained by the Republican and Democratic parties in the last 3 presidential elections. A look at the trend and direction of vote percentages gained by each party in each of the 20 counties in different states may be a better indication of the final result than polls alone as both parties are pushing hard in the 2020 election down to the last day. The Republicans strong in the ground game and organized effort, and Democrats in television advertising outspending the Republicans. Because of the clearly delineated positions the Democrats and Republicans stand in sharp contrast to each other both in image and substance.  Because of the Electoral College and states assigned electoral votes based on size the U.S. system is not based on the total vote count in the country. Who wins each state by vote count and gets the assigned electoral college votes assigned to that state, an builds up more than 270 Electoral College votes wins the election for president of the USA.  In Michigan there is the impact of the resurgence of the auto industry, with president Trump pulling out of TPP agreement and renegotiating NAFTA in favor of the U.S. auto industry bringing back jobs from Mexico. This puts the union vote in the auto industry- with Ford, GM and Chrysler located in Michigan- favoring these auto friendly policies from the current administration. The resilience of the auto industry sales during coronavirus is part of the economic story in Michigan. The renegotiated NAFTA treaty also helped dairy farmers of Wisconsin increase sales to Canada. In Pennsylvania the coronavirus and economic impact has hit harder than in Michigan with the decline in oil prices and effect on fracking industry. Closure of coal plants is also having a negative impact on the state. Tariffs on Chinese steel by the administration are helping the steel industry. Offsetting these economic stories is perception of how the coronavirus pandemic has been tackled by the administration. Added to this is the suburban women's vote and the shift of out of state liberal voters to suburbs in North Carolina (Wake county), and in Arizona (Maricopa county and Tucson area). States not covered here but also relevant are Minnesota which could be a battleground state in the midwest and Iowa. Racial protests in Minneapolis add another dimension with controversies about the policing in cities such as Minneapolis and recently Philadelphia. The sharp contrasts in image as well as policy, the coronavirus pandemic and the handling of the pandemic as well as the way rallies are being conducted differently by both candidates, and the economic stories, present an election like no other since the 1960's. The contrast is as sharp as between Gen. Dwight Eisenhower of the wartime allied effort and Adlai Stevenson a liberal and humanist in the 1952 election. That election saw some of the highest turnouts since the second world war, and this is now happening today. That election also determined the direction of postwar growth and dominance of American industry, the setting up of the National Highway system and important changes that were later continued under the Kennedy administration. It also marked the beginning of the Cold War following the Korean War under the Truman administration, a situation that is emerging in a different way today with the free world and the tension from relations with China. ...

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This NYT analysis of fund raising by the Republican and Democratic parties for the 2020 election campaign shows Republicans hardly raising any money from people with incomes over 250,000 and very little from incomes over $200,000 with most funding coming from the base white working class and lower and upper middle class. For Democrats fund raising is significant at the levels of income over $200,000. Geographically the Democrats get most of their funding from the east and west coast areas.  This reflects the changes in the parties starting in the the 2008 elections when higher income groups in software, finance, and in professions of law and medicine and Silicon Valley tech shifted to Democrats. The Democrats also held onto minority votes. In 2016 this changed with a sharp turn with tech on the west coast and finance professionals on the east coast shifting to the Democrats. The PPP agreement under Obama favored tech over the auto industry, and renewal fossil fuels such as solar were favored over the oil industry and fracking. In 2016 this helped shift the votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania to Republicans. Older manufacturing industries, oil and fracking were supported by Republicans who pushed back against ceding global dominance in manufacturing to China. By 2020 these changes are now entrenched with white working class voters in industries decimated and communities destroyed by foreign imports mainly from China, supporting Republicans. Republicans under Trump have made regaining the manufacturing leadership of the U.S. that was the situation after World War II, a top priority for the U.S.  The minority vote shifted with Hispanics moving towards Republicans to a much larger degree than before. The urban rural divide is similar to Europe where the similar impact of foreign imports mainly from China have destroyed older industries and led to sharp decline in older towns and communities outside major cities. This is the situation facing the U.S. and Britain, France, Italy Spain, and Poland. Germany as a manufacturing country dependent on exports is also affected but to a lesser degree. The unwholesome aspect of this is that the larger urban areas are divorced from the rest of the country  and rural small towns, smaller cities. In some form reintegration has to take place. The vast majority of the working class classified in today's terminology as the less educated lacking a college degree and white are  paradoxically with Republicans, and the wealthy professionals and industries in software, finance with Democrats. Nothing makes this more evident than a quick look at the map of the U.S. with blue on the opposite coasts for Democrats and mostly red in between and in the south. This is unprecedented in American history. A rising tide that lifts all boats in the U.S. and the return of the U.S. to the position it held after World War II could change this in the next decade. ...

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Republicans Kasich, Walker and Snyder won reelection for governor in Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan. Republicans also won elections for governor in Illinois, Massachusetts, Georgia, Kansas and Maryland. Democratic Governor Brown won in California and Iowa Republican Governor Terry Branstad won a sixth term. Voter issues focussed on the economic uncertainty for households, and on school funding and services in states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan. Local issues affected some elections, and some campaigns were seen as badly run such as the Udall campaign in Colorado. Governors Snyder in Michigan and Brown in California ran on their own record by aiding Detroit and tackling budget and water issues in California. A Pew Center research poll shows only 27% of Americans feel comfortable about their economic future- 27% say the economic future will be better in 2015, worse than in 2010 and 2012. Rauner in Illinois spent $27 million and Brown in California a negligible amount running on his record, showing there are different pathways in a midterm U.S. election that cost candidates $4 billion....

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The pent up energy from 4 years in the Opposition and the preparation made in the months before the election for the first days in office are reasons cited for the speed in which executive orders were issued on the first day. Another reason is that the president's popularity is high following the election in November and it is likely to slip in the months ahead leading to possible loss of one or both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the midterms of 2026. The president signed executive orders to declare a national emergency at the US Border, to designate gangs and drug traffickers as terrorist organizations, end birthright citizenship, as actions to deliver for the 87% of people in the Pew Research poll and similar numbers in NYT poll who want the US Border and immigration under control. Other actions were about the fentanyl flows from China, Mexico and Canada, not enough is being done by these countries causing 105,000 deaths in 2023 and 107,000 deaths in 2022 alone. When the Vietnam War led to 60,000 deaths there was a huge outcry, nowadays heads of responding agencies have no serious answers, the nation is not in a uproar as it should be. This is what the tariffs are about and this is why the American people do not see tariffs in the way they were used in beggar thy neighbor policy during the Hoover administration of the 1930's. Cities such as Baltimore are hardest hit. Almost every county in America is hit from Knox County Tennessee, Multnomah Oregon, San Francisco California, Camden NJ, Bronx NY, Bernalillo New Mexico, Jefferson Alabama, Philadelphia Pennsylvania, Washington DC, Jefferson Kentucky, Denver Colorado, Milwaukee Wisconsin, Jefferson Alabama, Bernalillo New Mexico, Camden NJ, Bronx NY.   ...

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Lyrarc Retrospect shows here RFK Robert Kennedy visiting homes sometimes mere shacks in the mountains where disease was rampant, education negligible, and income $60 for large families, shown here in this Washington Post report by  Paul Schwartzman, Feb 21, 2018  After J.D. Vance selection for VP and his book on growing up in Ohio's Appalachian mountain region which covers states of New York, Pennsyslvania, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, stretching from southern New York to northern Mississippi down the entire eastern part of the US, the question arises did the poverty in this region exist before? The answer is yes and two presidents JFK and LBJ, both Democrats setup the Appalachian Regional Commission to tackle rural poverty in the mountainous regions in 1960's. Its success- increased income by 4% faster than other neighboring counties in retrospect does not look like much. Rural poverty increased since 2000 as the national attention was taken up by the Bush wars and by a general neglect of rural areas under Bush and Obama. Iowa governor, now Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is given the task of addressing rural poverty and a top position in the Biden Administration. Fast internet, housing, income assistance, highway development, child education support, on multiple fronts Biden is fighting the poverty that RFK once saw with his won eyes in 1968 in eastern Kentucky and which stretches across 7 states.  ...

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President Biden addressed the Nation from the Rose garden today November 7, 2024. His remarks were conciliatory. "You can't love your neighbor only when you agree."  "Something I hope we can do, no matter who you voted for, is see each other not as adversaries, but as fellow Americans. Bring down the temperature." It is a remarkable end to a remarkable presidency which history will judge as perhaps a single term in which more was done than in any other 4 year term of a presidency, except for FDR in 1932 and Lincoln in 1861, tackling a once in a century pandemic, and rebuilding the economy, manufacturing, and infrastructure. And even correcting missteps on immigration by getting the legislation to fix it. It is a tall order for anyone who succeeds Biden though in the current post election situation there will be the typical euphoria on one side and losing on the other.  During the Republican sweep by Herbert Hoover in 1928 Franklin Roosevelt was elected governor of New York and he used the intervening years to 1932 to prepare for the monumental task ahead by testing his plan for economic recovery using New York and a couple of states from Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire, setting up the first unemployment insurance, shorter week, annual employment and other ideas to stabilize employment for one third of the US economy. Biden says he has asked his administration to work with Trump's team for the peaceful transition to a newly elected president. None of the fears about the transition came true with the new president getting a clear mandate to tackle the cost of living crisis for Americans. ...

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This Journal editorial says Romney is cautious and conservative in his politics, and finds his ideas for a value added tax problematic. It sees the need for Ron Paul's supporters in a successful Republican campaign in 2012 and critical for governing in 2013, because of Paul's genuine desire for change to the status quo. Of Santorum the Journal says there is need to broaden the economic message beyond reducing taxes for manufacturing companies, and going beyond the moral fervor to show how he would revive the U.S. economy and jobs growth.

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David Brooks on the candidacy for U.S. President of Senator Rick Santorum. He says Santorum genuinely represents the working class- a grandson of a coal miner and the son of Italian immigrants who has represented workers of the steel manufacturing region of western Pennsylvania. Santorum has pushed hard in this campaign largely ignored by the media. He has visited 370 towns riding in a pickup truck trying to cover as much ground as possible and talking with great conviction about his positions distant from the corporate and financial wings of the Republican party, about family, and communities. Bring someone like Sherrod Brown of Ohio together with someone like Rick Santorum and you have good representation of the working class across the political spectrum to win this election for the working class of America, says Brooks, who sees this as a lot better alternative today than Harvard Law.

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The unemployment rate in the U.S. state of Ohio drops to 7.2% in June 2012 from 10.6% in the second half of 2009. But polls show two thirds of the respondents see the economy as being worse or the same as in 2011. Because of lower wages in some industries such as auto manufacturing which are reviving there appears to be a lowering of incomes and expectations.

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The Black teen jobless rate in 2011, the third year of the Obama administration- a shocking 46.5%!

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Fletcher cites statistics from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that between December 2007 and June 2010, private sector employment in Texas went down by 0.6%. During that period public sector jobs increased by 6.4%. Government employees make up about 17% of the workforce in Texas. The Texas economy gets a large amount of federal money because of military installations and NASA- $227 billion in 2009, according to the Census Bureau. By comparison California received $346 billon in 2009. During the recession period after the global financial crisis of 2008, Texas received $25 billion in stimulus money. Richard Fisher of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank acknowleges the federal money going into Texas, yet he points out the driving force in the economy of Texas is still the private sector. For the private sector there are several advantages to being in Texas. There are lower taxes- no state income tax and lower business taxes. The large supply of land for development and few land-use restrictions make development easier. Corporate efficiency was a key advantage cited by Fluor when it moved from Orange County, California to Texas. A growing energy sector has helped, along with the growing trade with Mexico. The housing regulations in the state have acted as a check on housing prices, and left Texas with less of the detrimental effects of the housing mortgage crisis than the rest of the nation, especially California and Florida. The governor of Texas, Rick Perry, says he is not against all regulation, and the kind of housing regulation in Texas certainly has played a good role for Texas. Perry's tort reforms have reduced the legal burden on business prevalent in the rest of the U.S....