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Russia's escalating attacks on Kviv May 27 2026 and the tense situation in the Baltic republics and Sweden. Drone manufacturers in Ukraine are working with European Union arms manufacturers. Drone warfare by Ukraine has lead to stalling Russian advances in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has increased attacks on the Russian border regions with drones. In this situation Russia has escalated its attack on Kviv.  Other reports say EU is looking for other mediators to address the war and negotiations for a settlement as the US has withdrawn saying the two sides are too far apart.

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Russian Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile attack on Kviv, Ukraine, May 24 2026.

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Israeli attack on South Pars Field and Iranian response with attack on Qatar North Field- this happens on March 18, 2026. About 10% of total global oil supplies are affected about 7 million barrels a day. Attacks on oil facilities and fields are a different order of magnitude compared to closure of Straits of Hormuz, as oil tankers can still deliver the oil when it is safe to cross the sea passage. Attacks on oil fields and facilities will take a long time to repair. The US president calls on Israel to stop such attacks. The Pars gas field supplies homes in Iran and is used for fertilizer production in Iran. It also supplies Turkey which would have to get alternative supplies from Russia or on the world market.Oil briefly hits $116 a barrel before settling at $96. The situation resembles the one in Ukraine when Ukraine grain production could not be sent from the Black Sea ports to Europe and Middle Eastern countries like Turkey, Egypt and Morocco, and fertilizer exports could not be sent to Asia. The Russian attacks on Ukraine ports led to global shortages of fertilizer and grain. ...

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Russia seen as serious in new negotiations with high level military officials- Jan 28, 2026. This as Russian drone attacks continued on Kviv, Kherson. Contention points - future of Donetsk region in east Russia insists on controlling.

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Ukraine's effort to neutralize the effect of oil price hikes by hitting export refineries in Russia- every $10 rise in prices brings in $1.6 billion more in tax revenues for Russia. One of these naval drones hit a target 900 kilometres away on the Russian oil refinery at Ust-Loga in the Baltic Sea, which exports 700,000 barrels a day of oil. At price of $120 compared to $70 this adds about $54 billion in tax revenues for Russia without drone attacks on Russian export refineries. Another approach taken by Ukraine is to propose cessation of attacks on Russian oil export infrastructure if Russia agrees not to target Ukraine energy infrastructure. Much of Ukraine experienced a cold winter with Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure and its apartment buildings.

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How Ukraine protects rail infrastructure in Feb 2026- protective armor and running more trains at night, using drone jamming tools.

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With Ukraine unwilling to give up the Donbass and Germany/France/UK wanting to prevent Russian favored deal adverse for Europe, US focus on Monroe Doctrine and western hemisphere, Ukraine Russia war is likely to drag on. This is what one sees in Merz, Zelensky, Rubio speeches at the Munich Security conference. In 2026 Germany+ (that includes France and the UK) does not see it in the interests of Europe to allow a Ukraine capitulation to Russian attacks and Germany has already allocated funds to rebuild its military to prevent this from affecting Germany+ interests in Europe. Even though the winter attacks on Ukraine grid and electricity infrastructure leaves Kviv and other cities in a dire situation it appears that without the 20 year security guarantee or something solid Ukraine is not willing to sign an agreement which it fears Russia could turn around and start the war again. Germany+ which is the position of the major parties in Germany 60-70 % of voters for the SDP, CDU, Greens and others except AfD with 20-30% of voters. (AfD may have reached a ceiling as CDU under Merz is tough on migrants). Which means about 70% of Germans will support a policy of joining UK and France in resisting Russian attacks. Russia may have lost so much in manpower may see the war as a vindication only if it can hold onto the Donbass which may make it harder to reach a deal. Zelensky says Ukrainians live there and is unwilling to leave the Donbas region. The net result is that Germany+ and Ukraine are not likely to concede ground, the US reluctant to commit to 20 year security condition for Ukraine as it focuses energy on the western hemisphere and the fentanyl, drug traffickers in Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia, and their support structures in Cuba, in addition to Iran and China's plan on Taiwan sees limits to what it can do beyond limiting oil's funding the Russian attacks. It is amisrepresentation to say that the US is the cause, as everything changed the moment China became an industrial power with the help of US business interests and returned to its own story of being subject to British and Japanese incursions in the 19th and 20th centuries, and sensing that it is an industrial power in its own right by 2020 and insisting on framing its own policy in the world. Europe always had its own narrative since 1600 long before the US became an industrial power under Teddy Roosevelt in 1904. In that narrative which now plays out again different European powers band together to prevent any dominant power in Europe (Russia in 2026) from gaining dominance. ...

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DJT raises issue of NATO countries Turkey Hungary and Slovakia others buying Russian oil and gas + EU trade with China while asking for US help. Britain is a NATO country expanding trade with China while being strident about Russia. Germany has over two decades built economic relations with China through a period of Russian attacks on Ukraine including the Scholz administration approving China's stake in the port of Hamburg. India has been singled out by the EU and US, and by DJT with high tariffs while Britain and Germany carry on expanding trade with China. DJT believes China's support has emboldened Russia in its policy in Ukraine including pausing peace negotiations.

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Kviv winter 2026 with heat infrastructure destroyed by Russian missile attacks.  In the dark days of winter, life in Kviv and Ukraine contrasts with that of life in the other nations of Northern Europe (UK, Nordics) that see a continuation of the war from the comfort of their own homes not having experienced any of the aspects of life in such a war. The US has sought to bring an immediate or early end of the conflict that serve no purpose for Russia or Ukraine or the US. The root cause of the war is enlargement of NATO and it was done under a series of Northern European leaders starting with Solana in Spain, and Robertson from UK under whom much of the enlargement of NATO happened, followed by Nordic heads of NATO. This was a grave mistake and the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama administrations in US failed to grasp this mistake. NATO was created under the threat to Eastern Europe and Greece Turkey during the Truman administration from the Soviet Union, after Soviet Union collapsed it served no purpose and another institution was needed built from scratch in which all of Europe could freely participate free of influence of any particular part of Europe, with respect for all parts of Europe. In that situation the Ukraine war would not have happened among people who speak the same language and share the culture. ...

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One fifth of Kviv's population of 3 million has left the city, 4000 apartment buildings are without electricity in Kviv, this winter January 2026. This is the worst of the last couple of winters of the war, as Russia attacks energy infrastructure in Kviv on a large scale even as peace talks continue. Russia insists on control of Donbas region. Much of Ukraine today remembers a famine from the Soviet period, Russia remembers its proud history, language and culture from its beginnings in the Kviv region around the 14th century, that is the what this conflict is about. On one dimension it is about NATO and European Union expansion on another about the history and culture, language in a Russian language part of the world and the effort of Ukraine in the 21st century to seek a new identity. It is a struggle between fraternal people in the Russian region and in that sense a tragedy. It doesn't have to be one for Europe, for Germany. NATO was created when the Soviet Union expanded after 1948 and Britain was a key protagonist of NATO. Would its disbanding after Soviet Union disbanded leaving Russia as a country with centuries of its own history, would this have been the right action. If needed a new organization with a new name and Russia invited to join, would this have helped? Could this have focused attention on a new power as chancellor Merz has said, the new power being China being something requiring attention. The US is beginning to have new thoughts in this winter on 2026. The northern European nations (Britain, Poland, Finland and the Nordic countries, Baltics) have historical conflicts for centuries among themselves, they appear to be using NATO for their own historical conflicts. The US understands this, it is looking for a way to get a peace settlement so it can focus on the western hemisphere and not entangle itself in northern European conflicts that have been happening since 1600 with changing actors. The Republican have taken the lead under DJT for a new approach to put American people and their wellbeing, their right to live free of drugs(Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia), to live free of illegal migrants (Guatemala, Mexico, Venezuela), and improve on the shaky supply chains that were concentrated in China to bring jobs home that were lost by the millions (tariff policy), and to make living affordable (energy, agriculture).  ...

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Stephen Fidler of the WSJ lists 6 factors that will influence the direction of the war in Ukraine.  1. The weather. This will affect operations as muddy wet conditions will limit movement.  2. Bakhmut. Russia is using persistent attacks on this city as a way to show people in Russia that it is making gains in a political effort more than a military one. 3. Ukrainian offensives in the Zaporizhia region in the south. Since this report was written Russia has advanced its forces in this area as Ukraine still awaits western aid in the form of Leopard tanks and other tanks. Russia has called up 300,000 reservists and this is now making an impact in the Russian efforts to advance. 4. Russian defenses. Russian forces are dug in across a smaller front 550 miles instead of 700 after ceding some territory to Ukraine, of which 240 miles are river barriers. Trenches and excavations extend all the way to Crimean beaches. 5. Russian offensives using the 300,000 reservists that were called up and new discipline in the forces. Here experts say the reservists are not expected to do what trained Russian regular armed forces could not do. An attack from Belarus is seen as less likely as massing of forces there would be detected early by western allies of Ukraine. 6. Events outside Ukraine Russia is counting on waning support for Ukraine as Republicans in the House of Representatives raise the debate of the issues in this war and look for alternative solutions. French president Macron's views and German Social Democrats views are also against escalating the war, and are only taking steps for military support one step at a time to not let Russia be seen as coming out of this war as winning by staging an unprovoked attack on a friendly neighbor. ...

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US Defense Security Cooperation Agency in State Department approves sales of Javelin and Excalibur missile systems to India November 19 2025, at a price tag of about $95 million. This increases US military sales to India to over $20 billion. FOr India to get a good trade agreement with the US, the US government set two conditions - increase purchases of US products and stop funding Russian attacks on Ukraine by reverting to the situation in 2019 when India purchased about 4% of its oil from Russia. India's purchases of discounted oil from Russia are a recent development. Indian and Chinese refiners have cut purchases of Russian oil, according to recent reports in WSJ. The increasing arms purchases from the US is a development that has taken place throughout the Modi administration since 2014 cutting dependence on Russian supplies including India's building its own capacity for defense products.

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Ukraine visits by US Secretary of Army, Dan Driscoll, chief of staff Army  Randy Georgeand Chief US Army Europe, Chris Donahue, November 19. 2025. In the middle of a period of escalating drone attacks over Ukraine, and Ukraine strikes of refinery targets in Russia. Russian terms have not changed and call for Ukraine ceding territory and cutting its army. The EU and Germany, and Republicans in Congress are likely to oppose any capitulation by Ukraine after Russia launched the invasion, with Britain and France supporting Germany led by chancellor Merz.

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The story of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city only 25 miles to the border. Santora and Hicks give this report on life in the city which faces constant missile and other attacks with much of its power and other infrastructure destroyed, and schools operating deep inside subway stations. Nothing like this destruction has been seen in European cities since 1945. Europe had only the Balkan conflict limited to Yugoslavia 1991-1995 as the country split into several states, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Slovenia and the US settlement in 1995 following NATO bombing in Serbian Bosnia. The Ukraine conflict stretches back decades starting in 2014 with the Maidan protests in Kiev and fall of the pro-Russian Yakunovych government. After a brief war and Russia taking Crimea it ended with the Minsk Agreement in 2015. Russia had supported separatists in Donbas region. Russian is the language in Russia and Ukraine and both countries share a common historical heritage. It started again with Putin's complaints about NATO enlargement in 2021, followed by an attack on Ukraine in 2021 bringing Finland and Sweden into joining NATO, and US support to Ukraine's defense.  ...

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Israel's use of latest generation F-35 aircraft, modified for its own use, and drone attacks from within Iran changed the course of the war in the first 48 hours. Israel now controls skies over Iran. Missiles launched from within Iran continue to operate but are being targeted by Israeli planes including the use of its older aircraft. Air defenses and missile launching places within Iran are being steadily put out operation which makes it difficult to launch missiles as the days pass. This WSJ report compares the Ukraine war with the air wars with Iran, saying Russia did not operate its planes over Ukraine after the first days of the war. US warnings helped Ukraine prepare its air defenses and the better integration of air defense capabilities across cyber and other lines helped Ukraine maintain control over its skies. Russia was left with missile attacks and drone attacks and a slow war of attrition in the Ukraine War which resulted in staggering casualties. With Germany stepping in under Merz the Ukraine war enters a new phase after Russian gains in 2024. Germany is stepping in to the role played by the US working with France and Britain, as the US focuses its energies on the other threat posed by China in the Indo-Pacific region.  Eventually this will lead to another stalemate in the war in Ukraine after a swing one way, then a swing the other way, and now a swing back to where both sides have little to gain and reach a compromise, Ukraine giving up sovereignty to regions controlled by Russia and Russia recognizing Ukraine as an independent nation. ...

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In a major effort to halt increased missile attacks on Kviv and Ukraine by Russia DJT makes a decision to send Patriot anti missile systems to Ukraine financed by Germany. “It’ll be business for us, and we will send them Patriots, which they desperately need, because Putin really surprised a lot of people. He talks nice, and then he bombs everybody in the evening. There’s a little bit of a problem there, and I don’t like it.” In Congress Senators Graham and Blumenthal have 85 Senators behind a bill to support Ukraine and place penalties of upto 500% tariffs on countries that support Russia in its war effort by buying oil -including China, India and Brazil. Graham says- "China, India and Brazil buy oil and petroleum products and other goods from Russia—that’s the money Putin uses to prosecute the war.” Graham adds- "the U.S. had reached a turning point regarding Russia.” ...