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Ballooning debt at high interest rates under the Rajapaksa brothers government seen as a family dynasty has ruined Sri Lanka's economic prospects. The civil war did not need to happen as Sri Lankan or Ceylonese communities of Buddhist and Hindu faith had coexisted under British rule from 1802, and coexisted under Portuguese and Dutch rule since 1505. The combination of civil war, corruption, and mismanagement of finances, as well as mismanagement of agriculture, has hit Sri Lanka hard. In economic terms the several political dynasties from the Senanayakes, Bandaranaikes, and Rajapaksas have not served the country well just as the Nehru political dynasty has failed to deliver the kind of economic progress that China was making in the period 1990-2010. That period will be remembered mostly for missed opportunities. Today Indian states are struggling to free themselves from the trap of low aspirations, corruption, political families, as India's young people realize how much is being lost. Their aspirations are seeing a new surge with the passing of every year.   ...

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Showing how short lived and misdirected were the efforts to use election wins to make the presidency all powerful under Gotabaya Rajapaksa, prime minister Wickremasinghe proposed an amendment to restore the powers of parliament in a parliamentary democracy. Sri Lanka stumbled badly into economic mismanagement with debt pileup and no action till it was too late without the checks and balances inherent in a parliamentary democracy. Prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned and with protests calling for the president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign, Mr. Wickremasinghe a four time former prime minister was brought back to lead the country out of the crisis. Mr. Wickremasinghe returned with an agreement with the president to restore the powers of parliament which were established since the independence of the country in 1948. Mr. Wickremasinghe has support of the western lending agencies and governments in US and Europe as he and an independent central bank governor Nandalal Weerasinghe with many years of experience working with the IMF seek a way out of the economic crisis. A level of transparency that was present in the early years after independence is being restored as the public suffers from energy shortages and 40% inflation. The foreign exchange reserves of Ceylon (Sri Lanka) were exhausted to the point that the country lacked the funds to let oil tankers in Colombo harbor unload oil and be paid for oil supplies. As a lack of oversight is being corrected Ceylonese are beginning to realize the costs of a unneeded war, wild swings in sentiment for and against parties, deconstructing parliamentary democracy and its checks and balances, corruption and economic mismanagement. ...

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Sri Lanka has an inflation rate of 26%. Government spending on the war against Tamil separatist movement in the east and north makes things more difficult. Central bank is squeezing credit to control inflation. And there is a need to spend more to rebuild the wwar ravaged eastern province. And the war has taken a toll on human rights and on the free press as the country became increasingly polarized. The Rajapakse brothers won the last election to as Maninda Rajapakse, the president says to have peace and development by defeating the Tamil separatists who have created a continuous conflict on the island for decades sapping government resources and attention from development.

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A new book by Levitsky and Ziblatt, two Harvard political science professors, has the alarming title "How Democracies Die." This book points out that the first line of defense against autocratic tactics by a president is for his own party to obstruct it. This has happened recently when the president of Sri Lanka's autocratic tendencies were checked by a leader of his own party Mr. Sirisena, who worked with the opposition leaders to defeat president Rajapaksa. The Republican party is the first line of defense, and the leaders have to put the country's interests first for this to happen. The authors make the point in the book that much more needs to happen in the U.S. than the reenergizing of Democrats- there has to be working together across party lines and bringing people together, enlightened liberals joining enlightened people in business, on the conservative side, and Christians.  Leonhardt says this period may just be a phase, but don't take that for granted. Be responsible, and safeguard our liberties.  ...

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In a country with 70% inflation and debt of $83 billion, the NPP party leader Anura Dissanayake  who had only 3% of votes in the 2019 election wins by a landslide. Sri Lanka's economy is stabilizing with IMF assistance and negotiation, yet the economy has left the people in great difficulty to meet basic needs. Dissanayake led the JVP party in 1989-1997 period with considerable disturbances for which he has apologized. The Rajapaksa government also won with a landslide but failed during covid and the debt buildup crippled the economy and left the central bank without funds for essential imports. Ranil Wickremasinghe of a centre right party the UNP led a government after the economic collapse and negotiated a deal with the IMF, which included raising taxes to stabilize finances. Corruption and depletion of funds that are allocated for infrastructure and essential economic improvement, is a perennial problem in Sri Lanka since independence, making it impossible to build a modern economy from what the British left- rubber and tea plantations, an educated citizenry, good administration without the investment it deserved.  This problem also exists in India, Malaysia and many parts of Asia. The Modi government in Gujarat and the federal level was the first to break away from this by making every infrastructure dollar count and well spent with delivery in 3-4 years of highways, hospitals, airports, bridges, and logistics infrastructure for exports. ...

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China gives Sri Lanka a $1.1 billion loan for infrastructure projects, roads, airports and power stations. Interest for loans has ranged from 4 to 6.4%, higher than World Bank loans but lower than loans from western commercial banks. Sri Lanka has $54 billion in debt, with large debt payments for a nation of 20 million. Chinese loans have helped build a expressway from Colombo to Katunayake airport, Puttalam power station, and a port at Hambantota. New loans are for work expanding Colombo's port facilities. During the 2015 election campaign the UNP party was critical of China's loans given to the Rajapakse government. The current UNP coalition of prime minister Ranil Wickremasinghe is continuing work on Chinese projects on the island and at the same time seeking  loans from India and Britain to maintain balanced relations. China sees Sri Lanka as an important part of president Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative. To assuage Buddhist and national sentiment in Sri Lanka China has adopted Buddhist diplomacy in negotiating with the new UNP led coalition government. ...

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Sri Lankan High Commissioner Milinda Moragoda, is interviewed in Indian Express in Idea Exchange, with Shubhajit Roy, moderating the questions. Moragoda explains what happened over the last three decades and how Sri Lanka got to this point. About politicians he says Sri Lanka has too many politicians, and the violence of the JVP in the south and LTTE in the north and northeast set the country back by decades. Leaders from J Jayawardene, Kumaratunga to the Rajapaksas all failed to understand the spiral downwards of the economy, says Moragoda. Debt increased and 80% of the government revenues goes to pay pensions and government employees, leaving only 20% for debt service and little for investment in the economy. He says there are 1.5 million government employees and 500,000 pensioners, for a country of 22 million people. Of the population of 22 million about one million Tamils left the country during the civil war, and another 1 million people are in West Asia. Moragoda says most of the borrowing came after 2009 as the civil war ended with $12.5 billion borrowed or 40% of the total debt. About 80% of government revenues goes to pay pensions and government employees and another 70% goes to pay interest on debt, but he does not elaborate or explain this. What one can say from the experience of other countries in debt spiral is that at some point the interest accumulates to create a vicious cycle of interest on the cumulative total which includes interest from earlier years. Argentina is a recent example. And he makes no effort to say how he sees Sri Lanka is finding a path out this situation with a $2.9 billion IMF loan on debt of $51 billion.  Of the $12.5 billion borrowed since 2009 Moragoda says "that's  40% of our debt." Yet the total debt on which Sri Lanka defaulted is shown at $51 billion. $12.5 billion is 25% of the $51 billion. He does not provide any details about the financing terms on which Sri Lanka borrowed. It is clear that the interest rates were high over 6% in many cases which can be very burdensome for poor countries dependent on commodity exports. Countries such as Greece with debt crises had very large numbers of pensioners and government employees in Europe during the eurozone crisis, but nowhere does it show that it took up 80% of the government revenues in Greece. The number of government employees range from 1 to 1.2 to 1.5 million according to different figures for Sri Lanka. Even in Greece the number of public sector workers in government were 616,000 by some estimates during the severe eurozone debt crisis years around 2015. They are now estimated at about 369,000 in 2020.  Without a clear idea of these figures and transparency it is hard for any economy to be managed in a prudent way. See the related report "Fallacies of Sri Lankan Debt Patterns," a report by the Observer Research Foundation, on this same page today which say that Sri Lanka borrowed at exorbitant interest rates for a poor country.  Moragoda has worked for administrations in different portfolios including in economic affairs. He says Sri Lanka's economy is too small to get attention and investment it needs from India, and that the Adani investment shows that this can still be made to happen. India remains Sri Lanka's key partner as it grapples with this crisis. ...