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New York Governor Kathy Hochul said Friday that the state recorded 21,027 new covid cases surpassing the previous record of 19,942 set in January. Of 263,000 tested about 8% were positive- health officials say positivity rate doubled over 3 day period through Sunday.

William Lee, vp science at Helix, population-genomics company that does surveillance and testing, says Omicron will likely be the dominant strain in the US within a week. He says it is growing so much faster as a proportion of cases, than any previous variants.

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In 2020 soccer at filled football stadiums in northern Italy acted as superspreader events. Here the NYT looks at conventions as superspreader events and one recent convention in New York City, Anime (Japanese animation) convention at Javits Center, in late November 2021, that potentially could have acted as a spreader event though not confirmed according to NYT. Dense atmosphere and large crowds increase the risk of a super spreader event happening say experts.This happens as the new omicron variant in South Africa is seen in several countries. 

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Omicron cases are up in an almost vertical line on a graph with cases doubling every 2-3 days in the UK, similar to the pattern in South Africa during the beginning of the spread in South Africa. Since then early data in South Africa show the trend in the province of Gauteng, center of the omicron outbreak in South Africa in the Johannesburg area, has reached its peak. On Dec. 16 it recorded 27% of national infections compared to 70% the week before. Head of the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in South Africa, Michael Groome, says "we had areally dramatic increase in Gauteng, which has now leveled off."  Hospital admissions in South Africa show a different pattern than earlier hospital admission rates in previous waves, with only 1.7% of cases being hospitalized in this Omicron wave compared to 19% for the Delta variant wave at a similar point in the wave, says Health Minister Joe Phaahla. In UK as of Dec. 14, this WSJ report cites health authorites saying 73% of cases in London are omicron variant, doubling every 1-2 days, with omicron making up 41% of all cases in England. In the US the Centers for Disease Control show Omicron variant making up 2.9% of all cases in US as of Dec. 11, with highest concentration in New York, New Jersey of 13.1%. Proportion of positive tests went up from 3.3% to 5% in New York City. A convention in New York City, Anime convention at Javits Center, November 23, 2021, shown in a recent NYT report, could potentially have acted as a super spreader event in New York according to NYT though not confirmed, similar to football stadiums events in Italy in March 2020. Dense atmosphere and large crowds increase the risk of a super spreader event happening, say experts. ...

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The US booster vaccine drive is lagging behind as only 30% of Americans fully vaccinated have taken the booster vaccine, according to CDC. Only half of Americans over ager 65 have taken the booster shot. In New York City only 1.5 million Americans out of 8 million have taken the booster vaccine. This report in NYT shows Dr. Oshita's 3 urgent care clinics in Sacramento, California, and no rush of people to get the booster vaccine. It is scary, he says, of the lack of a rush of people into the vaccine centers. This is happening as the new omicron variant is spreading.

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In tackling the new Omicron variant president Biden is choosing to avoid the toughest restrictions and broad mandates that American would find it tough to accept and which affect upward mobility and the economy, and widen gaps between red and blue states. The fatigue is high as well as mental health impact says one of Biden's advisors. Biden announced stricter travel restrictions and a mandate for masks for public transit but avoided mention of lockdowns and shutdowns.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul says the situation is different now that 70% of the population is fully vaccinated and children over 5 are being vaccinated. She said "its a different situation right now and we don't need to have a knee-jerk reaction."

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The key role played by National Institutes of Health scientists in the development of the Moderna covid vaccine was not accepted in the application for patents by Moderna, leading to a dispute with the NIH. Moderna has now dropped the patent application saying it is a distraction on work for tackling the Omicron variant. That patent application had not listed scientists of NIH who worked on the invention.

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Nationally the new Omicron offshoot variant, the XBB.1.5 represents 40.5% of the cases in the US by Dec. 31, according to the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control or CDC. In New England and New York it is about 75% of cases and is a rapidly rising variant in Europe also. Only 38% of persons over 65 years in the US have got the updated covid booster bivalent vaccine shot.

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The situation in Boise, Idaho. Home to many electronics and high tech companies like Micron Technology, Boise has weathered many downturns with unemployment rates well below the national average. This time things are not looking at all like previous downturns, as the unemployment rate in Boise climbed to 6% from 2.7%- it has already approached the national average of 6.7%, and is climbing. This suggests that high tech is also being affected seriously. Unemployment is expected to reach 8% in 2010, about the same as the national average forecast according to Moody's Economy.com. Goldman Sachs forecast is for the 2009 savings rate to be between 6% to 10% by 2009. Families like the Capps and Muirs that have young children or children in teenage years, are now serious savers, as profiled in this description. Down to getting their meat from a calf grown on a family farm in the Rocky mountain region where Boise is located, cutting their own wood in the mountains, buying 11 dozen eggs and freezing the insides of the eggs, buying on deals like $8 winter coats at Old Navy's store, bulk purchases of sugar and staples, growing and canning vegetables, handcrotcheting hats and scarfs for sale on Craigslist and local bazaars. All this from Mrs and Mr Muir including starting a Moneysavers Club, an email group of 30 people. The Muirs are a young family with their first child 5 years ago, who have stable employment, with Mr Muir working as a grape researcher for the state Dept of Agriculture, and his wife a dental assistant. But having taken 2 mortgages to buy their $144,000 home because they could not afford the 20% down payment. The wife's 401K of $3000 going for insulation and fence , and the husband's 401 K savings down to $13,000- reduced to half by the stock market. Suggesting poor decisions on housing debt with low savings for a couple in their thirties. The Capp couple in its forties has also low savings, having $40,000 in student loans, and credit card debt of $11,000 just paid off by using the $10,000 severance package for Mr Capp. The Capps are economizing on everything from skiing to using washable rags instead of paper towels. He worked as a field service engineer for Electroglass, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer based in San Jose which fired two thirds of its field service engineers, including Capp. They also used a $25,000 line of credit on their home to buy a used Toyota 4Runner. Considering their economizing skills, their responding to the downturn by paring down debt as quickly as possible, the information of Mrs Muir's skills at saving, the Capps continuing to use their 253,000 miles Toyota Corolla- these are families that were not crazy spenders, but just families that did not take saving seriously. The Capps made $65,000 from Mr Capps salary and $10,000 from Mrs Capps work at a mental health clinic (after getting a BS in psychology), yet their $2700 in savings suggests no effort was made to save for a rainy day. What this saving and economizing means is that restaurants are closing in large numbers in Boise. Retail stores, including electronics and clothing, are shuttering, All this is leading to higher unemployment, leading to saving measures like those used by the Capps and the Muirs. Meanwhile the numbers for savings accounts at Home Federal Bancorp in Boise, Idaho, a $725 million bank with 15 area branches, shows savings accounts up 26% in December from the previous year. And says the banks consumer banking head, the balances are increasing even as the unemployment rate is going up. Which suggests that Rodriguez and Goldman Sachs may be right (seee link) that the savings rate may reach 10%, and even higher, from what is happening in Boise. Views on currency valuation and the dollar as indicated in the analysis of the article about Rodriguez /Grantham/Scheiff, WSJ, January 2, 2009, may have to be separated from the analysis of what is happening in savings, as the weakening of the dollar relates also to the weakening of other economies and currencies. This steep upturn in saving is likely to affect Chinese exports severely and the Chinese economy. This also affect the German economy, as China imports less from Germany, especially its midsized manufacturers. See links. What is happening on saving, on the other hand, is very real, and happening before our very eyes....