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JAPAN PM SANAE TAKAICHI VISIT TO INDIA JULY 3, 2026. Deepening of ties between Asia's 2 leading democracies and largest top 5 economies of the world with a combined population of 1.5 billon and a combined purchasing parity GDP of 27 trillion dollars about 60% of China's purchasing power GDP. With the acceleration of the Indian economy to about 8% growth and complementing Japanese capital and Indian ambition the effort will be made to close the gap with China, to establish independent resilient supply chains, and set the new course for Asia as a whole. Once the gap is closed over the next 10 years just Japan India partnership will be the size of the Chinese economy. The American and European Union economies would be the size of the Asian economies also complementing the Japan India partnership, to set a clear course for the world of nations based on the rule of law, open navigation, and peaceful cooperation for development of Africa, Asia and Latin American nations.

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India's handling -under the Modi government and ministries working together in a long range plan- of the Hormuz crisis, and keeping gasoline prices, gas for cooking prices, and diesel prices to below 8% increases is an achievement of tremendous proportions. Yet it is rarely if ever mentioned  in the media in the US and Europe.  It shows the huge importance of good governance in the lives of nations and people, when we are talking about 1.4 billion people, of massive impact. This report on India's handling of the Hormuz oil crisis by the Modi government in The Hindu shows how India kept prices of petroleum and gas, diesel, down to an 8% increase compared to 45% +  increases in other countries in Asia and Europe. By having all ministries work together, planning for petroleum needs years before he crisis, government absorbing the cost, renewables energy goals accelerated, and better preparation through its oil reserves, India was able to weather the Hormuz crisis. US and its ally in Venezuela have stepped in with Delcy Rodriguez's visit to India, Marco Rubio's visit to India to reassure India of supplies from their exports. Even as oil prices rose above $120 a barrel India was able to weather the crisis and show to the world and to the US, to the 1.4 billion people of India, how important a factor good governance can be in the life, survival and growth of nations and economies in the Modern World. In this report The Hindu shows petrol prices in India were up 7.5%, compared to Germany 14%, UK 19%, US 45%, Pakistan 50%, and Philippines 50%. FOr diesel UAE prices rose 85% in UAE itself, in India just 8%. Domestic cylinders of gas cost Rs 942, Ujjwala lower income and elderly benefiiciaries got it at Rs. 642 ($7). ...

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Internal Bank of England data showing Britain inside European Union 6-8% higher GDP and 75 billion pounds of higher exports of goods in 2025. This is the only objective assessment one can accept in judging what would be best for British workers and their families.  Also lost on the 2014 -2016 period that led to referendum on Brexit in 2016 just three years later is that it came after the 2009-2011 period for recovery from the financial crisis, the first entry of Conservatives and sharp austerity cuts in public spending by 2012, and the period of Covid that followed just 3 years after 2016 in 2019. The process of improving productivity and increasing competitiveness that could have happened, is a cost Britain suffered from Brexit becoming topic No.1, skewing priorities from reindustrializing to debate on a non priority item Brexit- with a lost decade as a result in addition to the 8% of GDP and 75 billion pounds that could add to these numbers. In this way UK lost about 10% of its GDP and 100 billion pounds of exports that without the that  additional public investment  did not happen from 2009 financial crisis, from Brexit divisiveness, followed by Covid. The result is 1.5% growth in GDP in UK compared to closer to 3% in the US. The lower growth alone can mean additional losses in exports in 2025 than are seen in numbers, and additional losses in GDP. This is the economic weakness  that hangs over Britain as it tries out a new leader in 2026. Only a bold action plan under a bold leader can reverse this decline. As shown elsewhere on these pages in Lyrarc, this is why a new leader needs to articulate a bold and well thought out plan to execute with the support of the British people. Andy Burnham has the potential to make this happen starting in 2026 over the next 5-7 years. He has to build on the work he did in the Greater Manchester region, and like Modi in India applying the lessons learned in his home state of Gujarat, step by step, year by year, build the industrial and economic capacity of Britain by 2035. It is not a feat for the timid, struggles will abound, yet it can be done with one step following the previous step in a continuous stride. In fact Burnham can now work with India to add about 1% of GDP because of the close trading relationship and centuries long synergies with India to get closer to 3% growth in GDP per year. At that point public spending and investment would rise to propel further growth. It is in the interest of every sector in Britain to pull together, the same in India, to lift these two main countries of the Commonwealth by the bootstraps. ...

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China's export dependent economy with 4% decline in fixed investment Jan-May 2026 and 27% jump in exports.1 million car exports per month in June. Exports make up 20% of China's GDP. China is challenging German companies in their home markets in Europe. Domestic sales of cars are down 16% in June. What this means is that China's growth now depends on exports alone, with construction slowdown, and weak consumer spending. How does this tie into China's posture in trade with the US? It negotiated from a position of strength on rare earths not to give in to DJT tariffs yet knows the importance of trade for the Chinese economic model, importance of US and EU markets, markets worldwide. China's strategy is to shift some of the lost US sales due to tariffs to other countries in Latin America and Asia. A top priority is to keep trade with the US and European Union on a good footing, so that its exports can be absorbed. How does it affect Hormuz? For China Hormuz as an oil source is much lower in importance and China can do without Iran, it absolutely cannot do without the US and European Union to take a big part of its exports. It also does not openly say this but it also shares concerns similar to the US, on nuclear weapons in Iran. India, Japan and the EU have similar concerns. As shown in the articles on this page China has large unused oil in reserves and coal supplies, has lower oil demand at 4% growth, and is accelerating renewable energy, so that it is now importing 8.5 million barrels a day down from 12.5 million barrels a day. By doing this China puts this oil back into the world supply leading to lower oil prices. This means the world can do without the supplies from Hormuz, keep lower oil prices, and go on as before if Hormuz remains closed. The US can focus on domestic issues and its involvement in the Middle East can be limited to naval blockade which the US Navy is capable of doing. This is good for China, good for the US, and good for the World. Local governments in China, provincial authorites, pushed growth in building road, bridges, factories during the 30 year growth phase 1990-2020. In 2026 local governments with debt loads and lack of good projects for investment are a bottleneck to growth. This is the first time fixed investment is in decline, except for the years in 1961 and in 1967. The year 1961 is a result of many mistakes made by chairman of CCP, Mao, by shifting 2 million in farm labour to work in iron foundries, and the shift from private farm plots to soviet style commune farms, coupled with floods leading to 43-46 million famine deaths (1994, Chen Yizi, top advisor to CCP General Secretary Zhao Zhiyang). 1967 is the chaotic situation of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution launched by Mao. What it shows is that the China Miracle like the Japan Miracle and the German Miracle of recovery after World War II, is based on certain conditions and will enter a phase of lower growth closer to 3% like other industrialized nations over time. India and Indonesia are larger than China and will be the next growth story, which is also shown on these pages this week, with the address to the Indonesian parliament by Modi, and Indonesian president Prabovo's saying that he has studied Modi's economic changes and is copying them as there is no copyright. ...

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US naval base at Bahrain and the damage from missiles in the war  June 2026 as shown by the WSJ. Bahrain is located only 150 miles from the Iranian coastline and was targeted along with other sites including Kuwait and UAE. A new route along the Omani coastline protected by US naval power in the region that then goes along the UAE coastline is now the route opened up by the US for shipping oil through Hormuz. This route is key to reducing oil prices and the recent visit by Marco Rubio of the US to the Gulf Cooperation Council being held in Bahrain June 25,  and the meetings held there, affirmed the open navigation of the seas on international waterways as being under international law. This has led to the fall of oil prices to prewar levels of around $70 per barrel. The US will redo the naval forces and bases in the region with less in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, smaller footprint in Bahrain, and move some naval forces to the west closer to or inside Israel. The administration has asked Congress for $40 billion for the naval and military effort to restore open navigation of the seas for the world's energy of which $5 billion will go to repair of damaged naval facilities. One of the effects of the war that is constructive is ther is now an awareness to manage oil consumption in India, China and Japan major users of oil coming through Hormuz. China has figured out ways to do without the 3 million barrels a day from Hormuz, India has setup alternative oil supplies from Venezuela, and Japan is both cutting oil use and looking at alternative sources. Oil companies are also working on alternative supplies in other regions of the world. Both China, India, and European Union are accelerating their renewable energy sources to meet energy requirements. This means after 2026 the world may not be dependent on Hormuz for energy supplies, Hormuz becoming one of multiple sources and alternative supplies than in the past. This will also keep oil prices in the $50-$70 range that is consistent with cost of living and economic growth. ...

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German economic growth drops in 2026 to below 1%. What is happening?Germany manufacturing jobs drop to 6.6 million lowest in 10 years in 2026 as China makes same products for less and better. China is shipping more of its products to the German market and displacing German products in world markets. The same problems affecting the US in loss of manufacturing jobs is affecting Germany. This is happening as China uses long range plans coordinated with industry and state owned companies to deliver superior results in world markets to American and German companies competing on their own without coordination with the government in a long range plan and effort. The American and German companies face greater uncertainty in markets and are slow to invest in critical areas and technologies as a result leaving them exposed to Chinese competition. China has used the Japanese style subsidizing its industries and has another advantage in doing this in that many are state owned companies or heavily subsidized and supported by the state. After 1990 the fall of the Soviet system led to a sense that free markets in their purest form were better. This was not really true as the soviet system of state planning failed because it did not use the best features of the market economy that work. Japan adapted the market system to its needs and used state partnership with private industry to produce good results. The US did not learn from Japan's example. China learned from both the failure of soviet style planning and the success of the Japanese system to adapt its state plannning system by including aspects of the market economy. The US and Germany can only learn from these examples and adapt US market economy by including aspects of what worked for China and Japan of state plannning and long range plans of industry and government. Look back to how FDR won the war- within 5 years 1940-1945 he combined the best aspects of the planning and coordination of government and industry to achieve goals not thought possible. Britain did the same which shows such planning and coordination is not only a part of the US system of business and industry, it is just that these lessons and the lessons of other nations like Japan and China after 1950 were forgotten. India is now adapting its system for business and industry, and government for five year plans borrowing and learning from the examples of the US, Japan, China and the EU. ...

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Reeves and Lammy depart as Burnham chooses new cabinet Healey is new chancellor and Shabana continues as Home Secretary. Healey was Defense secretary under Starmer. It is important that he was in 1999 Parliamentary Private Secretary to Gordon Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer. In 2002 he was appointed Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and in 2005 Financial Secretary to the Treasury. In 2009 he was Minister of State for Housing and Planning. Shadow Secretary of Health in 2010 and 2016, Shadow Secretary for Defense under Starmer after supporting Starmer for leadership of the Labour Party. He was first elected to parliament in 1997 and had majorities of 50-70% in elections serving for 29 years in parliament. He is the right choice for Chancellor, or Finance Minister of the UK to work with Burnham on Labour's goals. Reeves was problematic from the beginning because she stuck to what people said could or could not be done, not able to think outside the box to get Labour to be itself and do what people wanted from Labour. In this way she set herself and the Labour party for failure by losing the very public that Labour had promised to help, with this public becoming indifferent to Labour, because in many ways it was Reeves's Labour not Starmer's. As Starmer, not much of an original thinker and little experience outside of law, followed Reeves economic theories borrowed from The City, Britain's version of Wall Street. Andy Burnham is right to choose someone who can think on his feet, no knowledge of economic theory required because orthodox economic theory has failed America, failed Britain, and created the mess of single supply chain concentrated in China in the first place with its theories of comparitive advantage. What is needed is someone who grasps and hold near his heart the aspirations of the British people, and hears their concerns everyday, not think tanks telling one what to do, and acting on these concerns in creative ways, thinking and improvising solutions along the way, not afraid to experiment. This is how FDR handled the economic difficulties of the 1930's, another period like today's when Wall Street theories had failed badly. This is also how China handled the economic collapse after Mao's death following the Cultural Revolution in 1984-1997. This is how Modi handled the economic difficulties in building a modern nation by experimentation in the western state of Gujarat in 2001-2014 without preconceived ideas and theories, keeping what worked and expanding on it.  Lammy was not the right choice for Deputy Prime Minister, and failed to provide leadership and focus the country's attention on the issues of migrants, asylum hotels, housing, rebuilding relations with the European Union, economic growth, neglect of the north of England and other deprived regions. No such position of Deputy prime minister can be filled in many situations. As Foreign Secretary there needed to be some one who could speak with a stronger voice for Britain with the European Union, the US, China, India, and be seen across the spectrum of views in Britain as an effective voice. ...

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Steps the Modi government in India is taking in the 2020 Budget to tackle slowing growth include relaxing the fiscal deficit target from 3% to 3.5% of GDO, selling public sector companies to generate more funds, so that additional investment can be done in infrastructure, rural development, education and health care. Growth of the economy is expected to drop to 5% for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2020.  A weak banking sector with sharp decline in credit, and decline in the auto sales by 20%, have worsened the decline in growth.  Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman, the Finance Minister, said that this budget is designed to "boost Indian incomes, and enhance their purchasing power." The Indian slowdown comes in the middle of a global slowdown, with China's growth expected to be 4.9% in the first quarter of 2020. Growth was further weakened after the effects of the coronavirus lockdown on parts of China, disruption of supply chains, partial closure of businesses. ...

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This analysis of coal use using graphs shows a clear move away from coal in the world, except for two growth markets China and India which account for 60% of the increase in coal use since 2008. India has gone black in its shift to increasing use of coal. China has begun the shift away from coal to address the smog over large urban areas, poor air quality and health impact of coal use. Because China used five times the coal used by India in 2017, the overall impact in China and India is showing a shift away from coal to hydropower, other renewables including solar energy. It is likely that India will make the shift following China's example in the future. 

The trend is clear when one looks at the incremental terawatt hour and where it comes from. The shift is clear to renewables, hydropower, and non fossil uses in the rest of the World and China which account for most of the coal use in the world.

 

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The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council in India lowered the growth rate for the current fiscal year through March to 7.1%. Growth is expected to improve in the next fiscal year to 7.5%-8.0%. C. Rangarajan, the head of the advisory group says he sees the fiscal deficit exceeding the budgeted target of 4.6% of GDP. One panel member says the fiscal deficit target could be exceeded by as much as 1%. Rangarajan emphasized the need to cut subsidies and raise some indirect taxes. India's central bank governor, Subbarao, also emphasized the need to cut subsidies and reduce the deficit in a recent interview with Wall Street Journal reporters Frangos and Jain, Feb. 14, 2012. Lower foreign investment, and reduced credit after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI, India's central bank) increased rates repeatedly, and lower exports due to the eurozone crisis, have reduced the growth rate. The panel expects inflation of 6.5% in March 2012, which Mr. Rangarajan considers to be high. Deputy Governor of the RBI, K.C. Chakrabarty says 7% growth is reasonable under the conditions, as inflation has to be lowered to below 5% to accelerate growth to 9%. Chakrabarty does not see any quick turnaround in growth rates in the next fiscal year with all the headwinds facing the Indian economy....

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Reducing income inequality and increasing farm incomes would increase consumption spending and investment for further growth in the Indian economy. Investment in infrastructure development is another source of growth. Higher oil prices and the bad loans in the banking system are barriers to increasing growth of the Indian economy. The problems during the last 2 years of the Congress led UPA government, including the bad loans in the banking system and the uncertainty after corruption cases including the telecom auctions, required that the Modi government take strong action in the first year. 

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China's dependence on an export sector that is uncertain 14% growth (EV's electronics) vs. 0.2% growth in domestic spending April 2026. Costlier energy inputs are affecting China in the way that is affecting Germany's economy in 2026. The US has increased tariffs, Germany and the EU are likely to do the same as they see their economy erode with Chinese exports in German markets replacing German manufacturing. China has set 4.5% growth target much of it from ramping up exports and depends on cheaper inputs for energy as Germany has done for economic growth. This is being gradually eroded as US/EU want to reindustrialize and make things and products realizing the errors in industrial policy of previous administrations Bush and Obama in US and Schroeder/Merkel in Germany. At the same time India wants to be a manufacturing hub like China. When that happens by 2030 China's growth will be similar to the US of 2-3% a year as exports decrease. Eastern India is the New East and South China with 700 million people for the first time in 2025-2026 under double engine governments. Double engine meaning state, local and federal governments all under the same party (the BJP National party) so that industrial policy is conducted along the lines of a Master Plan tested in western Indian states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. This has been seen before. As Japan rapid rise of the 1960's and 1970's slowed by 1980, China's rapid rise of the 1990's and 2000's slowed by 2025 and India in 2025 is picking up from China in the way China picked up from Japan. This means an industrialized US and EU, rapidly industrializing India will face a slowing China and aging China by 2030. Knowing this pattern helps US and EU leaders, Indian leaders, look at the long term in their plans, having confidence in their investments in industrial progress for the next 5 years. ...

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Inflation in India is at 9.1% in May 2011, compared to the prior year. GDP growth for the first quarter of 2011 slowed to 7.8%, from an annual rate of 8.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Other figures show the same trend. Local investment growth for the second half of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2011 was at 4.1%, a decline from 14.7% at the beginning of the year. Foreign investment in the first quarter 2011 declined 32% from the prior year, down to $3.4 billon. Car sales have also declined to the lowest rate in two years.

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Chidambaram in an interview with the WSJ says he thinks India can sustain 8% growth in 2008 and 2009 and keep inflation in control at the same time bringing it down to closer to 5%, both of which would be acceptable in the more difficult global environment.

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Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar makes a 3 day visit to Saudi Arabia. He addressed diplomats at the Prince Saud Al Faisal Institute of Diplomatic Studies in Riyadh. He will co-chair with Prince Faisal bin Al Saud the first ministerial meeting of the Committee on Political, Security, Social and Cultural  Cooperation (PSSC), established under the framework of the India-Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council. What is happening here is that the Saudis can build their own ties in the region as they choose what is best for the future, compared to the relationship in the past which was as a state mainly dependent on the US but which sorely lagged behind in educationally, culturally, in developing its own scientific and technology institutions to transition into the modern age. The relationship in the past also appeared to be rooted in the colonial period that had transitioned only half way out of the colonial period into the relationship built by America's FDR and succeeding presidents with the royal family and monarchy of Saudi Arabia. Under Mohamad Bin Salman it now gives Saudis an opportunity to make its own choices with the help of neighbors such as India, Japan, and other countries. It also strengthens the relationship with the US and the EU in unseen ways through the Saudi relationship with India, Japan and other countries. Bilateral trade is at $30 billion for FY22 April to December. India imports 18% of crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia. Indian imports worth $23 billion, Indian exports worth $7 billion to Saudis. About 2.2 million Indians are living in Saudi Arabia. During the pandemic India was the closest health ally of the Saudis.   ...

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Thucydides, Greek historian on the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens 431 BC, cited by Xi Jinping of China during DJT visit to China, May 2026. “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?” "Thucydides Trap," is about one established power being threatened by another rising power, as Sparta felt threatened by a rising Athens in the Greek world around 431 BC, leading to a long over 30 years war.  “The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, of Taiwan, an island near China's coast where ChiangKaishek set up his government after the fall of his government in Beijing in 1949 to Communist People's Army of Mao Zedong. “If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation."  What China sees is a future of strong economic growth based on China having built its industrial strength and world trade to exceed 1.2 trillion dollars of trade surplus in 2026. Yet this is only the beginning. US and European Union, and India+Japan are three economic regions compared to the situation in Greek history. The combined three economic regions potential for scientific and industrial advances in the future till 2045 in a synergistic fashion one building on top of the other's advances, far exceed the potential of the Chinese economy and industry by itself. This is why any such conflict may over time fizzle away as three economic regions of EU, US and India advance, particularly the 1.4 billion people of India, which will see growth rates of 20% annually for 10 years to 2035 in Eastern Indian region of the size of the EU. That region extends from Lucknow and Patna to Vizag and Chennai. Another aspect of this concerns China itself which sees slowing growth of 5% in 2026. Growth could slow further as US, European Union and India/Japan push back on Chinese exports during a period of reindustrialization in US, EU, Japan and rapid industrial development in India to 2040. China's development is only midway in terms of per capita GNP which lags most of Europe and the US, Japan. Thus the main concern in China is that China will not be able top go beyond middle income country as its demographics and aging population look more like Japan's over the period 2026-2040. China needs the US EU trade and markets for it to meet the needs and aspirations of its 1.4 billon people as the other engines of development such as housing construction, infrastructure building, have lost momentum. ...

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Insights from WSJ readers on causes for slowing growth in India, Modi and Gujarat, the education system, and anti-inflation policies of the central bank.

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India's Ministry of Finance predicts GDP growth of between 7 and 7.5% for 2018-2019, after faltering GDP growth in 2017-2018 following action on demonetization and introduction of a national Goods and Service Tax. The IMF predicts growth of 7.4% for India in 2018 compared to 6.8% in China in 2018, with growth of 7.8% predicted for India in 2019.  Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian says there are "robust and broad based signs of revival," though risks remain in rising oil prices and inflation. The level is below what it could be, yet robust considering the policy actions taken by the government for the long term such as the nationwide GST implementation, which was taken up by previous administrations of both parties in government but never implemented till 2017. In addition the government faces the tasks of recapitalization of banks, the issues of job creation as manufacturing in India in the global context is only beginning to take shape, and agrarian distress.  The new Budget takes up the issues facing rural areas of the country by compensating farmers to the extent of 150% of agricultural cost and introducing the largest health care security scheme in the world for poor families. This comes a year before new national elections. The Modi administrations's focus appears to be for taking steps that will generate growth over the long term and learning from errors, yet being bold enough to take the necessary action based on experience.   ...

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To get an idea of Indian potential growth rate one can see the potential of states like Bihar and Maharashtra. Bihar state in India is where the potential for economic development is huge and growth rate of 22% for 2025-2026. Imagine a state with 130 million people in India with about 17% urbanization compared to 37% for India. Most of the development concentrated in the capital city of Patna. Other cities being Gaya near Bodh Gaya, home of the world's most important ancient Buddhist sites where Lord Buddha spent most of his life, and Bhagalpur.  The new plan is to accelerate urbanization in Bihar. After Pataliputra and Kankarbagh 11 new satellite cities are to be set up under an new plan for Bihar. Housing Minister Nitin Nabin of Bihar state says- “The new townships will include nine divisional headquarters cities, Sonepur and Sitamarhi (Sitapuram). The initiative will reduce population pressure on major cities, ensuring better basic infrastructure and scope for further expansion. Special emphasis will be laid on roads, traffic management, drainage, waste disposal, green parks, and residential areas. The nine divisional headquarters were Patna, Muzaffarpur, Bhagalpur, Gaya, Darbhanga, Munger, Saran, Saharsa and Purnia. Committees will be formed to monitor the townships’ overall development." ...

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A World Food Program report says India is home to over a fourth of the hungry people in the world, about 230 million people. Purnima Menon of the Food Policy Research Institute in Washington D.C., says India ranks below two dozen sub-Saharan countries on a Global Hunger Index. It ranks Madhya Pradesh, a state in central India, as somewhere between Chad and Ethiopia. And serious hunger and malnutrion persists in states that have done better in economic growth, like Gujarat and Maharashtra. The number of children suffering from malnutrition in 2009 is in the range of 42.5% in India compared to about 7% in China, according to figures cited by Rieff.

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Using a new methodology India's statistics agency revises growth for 2013 to 5.1%, for 2014 fiscal year to 6.9%. Growth for 2015 is forecast at 7.4%. For the 3 months Oct-Dec. 2014 the growth in GDP was at 7.5%. Changes in methodology include computing it at market price, not at factor cost. This adds up consumer and firm spending instead of producer costs.

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Problems in the power sector that limit India's economic growth. Power plants being built are short of coal and other fuel supplies. Coal supply has not kept up with increase in power plant capacity- coal production increased by a mere 1% in 2011 and power plant capacity increased 11%. The gap between demand and supply for power increased from 7.7% in 2010 to 10.2% in 2011. Coal India which has 80% of production has not invested enough in new mining equipment and technology to rapidly increase production. This combined with higher energy costs for imports and weak infrastructure continues to act as a constraint to economic growth.

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India's statistics ministry estimates growth in GDP for the year ending March 31, 2013, at 5%. Finance minister Chidambaram says the actual figures are likely to be higher because of growth picking up in the last half of the year. This is a decline from the 6.2% in the prior year, and the 9% growth in previous years.