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Media headlines focused on Xi's statements on Taiwan. China is concerned that US not recognize Taiwan independence, but not much beyond that. China puts Iran much lower on the list of issues it considers important. It appears that China first priority is to be accepted as an equal partner with the US as a superpower. That is Xi's goal in this trip. Issues of Hormuz and Iran not something China considers important. China has an interest in a non-nuclear Iran, in no nuclear weapons proliferation. As the US has made this a priority China prefers to be not vocal on this issue, as it relies on the US to see this is done. A secondary priority for China is to have the US agree that China could continue to import from the Hormuz Straits to met its oil needs. As China has relations with Arab states it is carefully balancing this with relations with Iran. What does this mean? It means China and US are in considerable agreement on the current situation in the Gulf region and in the Middle East. China sees beyond Iran, so does the US. Both countries are focused on the future - on reindustrialization in the US and China on the next phase in its industrialization. New countries and blocs are also emerging that will rival China and the US- India/Japan and the European Union under leadership of Germany and France. These four countries or blocs are all thinking of the world beyond a failed Middle East- the economic issues they face and how best to tackle them, and the issues relating to borders and security, how best to tackle them. ...

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BJP Modi election win in West Bengal and upset by TVK party in Tamilnadu states of India are a result of existing state governments not meeting the aspirations of young people in India for jobs, lack of progress in industrialization and lack of investment in infrastructure. These are the pressing priorities in India. Whoever can deliver on modernization and industrialization, jobs and infrastructure to meet the aspirations of the Indian people is likely to prevail. This is also no different than the process underway in the US and Europe for reindustrialization and remodernization, updating infrastructure built in the 19th century, jobs and incomes. The BJP party of prime minister Modi has set the bar high for modernization of the scale of China and Japan for India, and to even surpass them.  It is definitely doable, particularly now that India has built trade links for import of new technologies with the US and the EU, and when it is already an economy the size of Germany or Japan. Most of the Opposition parties cannot believe this is possible, and most of the media that covers India has the same views. As a result the titles and the discussion in the media are like that of 15 years back when India was led by parties that lacked the will and drive for industrialization and modernization, corruption and mismanagement dissipated resources, could not create the master plan and execution needed,  and lacked the leaders at the ministerial level to accomplish this to deliver on every promise. In fact the elections of the last 2 years have created a new northeastern India - changed the map completely with the growth in a region half the size of the European Union of 300 million people that is able to grow at 20% a year for 10 years in Bihar, West Bengal, and Orissa, Assam regions, where the mighty Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers flow into the seas from the Himalayas. There is that much potential and it means India itself can grow at rates of 10% once all the conditions are right in a few years to 2047 for Vikshit Bharat, Modernized India. The world economy can also grow with such a vibrant dynamic India. ...

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This Washington Post Editorial Board Opinion asks Europe to get serious about its energy needs and finding alternate supplies than Hormuz, that the US president DJT is sending the right message "Go get your own oil." And this is true also for China, Japan, South Korea and India. What there is no need for is the posturing of these countries when it is China and Japan that are dependent on Hormuz strait and that region for 90% of their imports, not the US which is zero dependent and self sufficient. Germany has shown the way with only 6% of its imports from that region, Italy and Britain have not acted to find other alternate supplies. 

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Rugged hilly coast and shallow narrow straits - problems for Straits of Hormuz shipping is shown in the NYT following similar reports in WSJ. It will cost $200 billion for the munitions supplies and interceptors, and US naval operations, French naval operations to keep the Straits of Hormuz open, which is supported by US business as is seen in opinion in Editorial Board of WSJ on March 24, 2026. The Straits are a lifeline for Asia until renewable energy and alternative supplies of oil make the Straits history and a redundant proposition, which will be sooner than later after this episode, one too many more from the Middle East. More likely by 2030-2035. China and Japan depend on it for 90% of imports, and India 50% with alternative supplies provided for India from the US and Russia. Germany is only dependent on the Straits for 6% of its imports showing how far Germany has come and how important renewables and alternative sources of oil such as Venezuela will become in the time ahead, in a two pronged strategy that does not forget the challenges posed by climate from fires and floods. Were not stuck with the Straits- Japan and China can and will find alternative sources and increase production of renewable energy in the way Germany has done to get to 6% of imports from that region. ...

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British MP raises issue of Arab Gulf countries providing 37% of China's oil imports, excluding Iraq 27%, vs 11% from Iran and 20% from Russia- 2024 US EIA. Tom Tugendhat says China has to balance its interests in the region after the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, between Iran, Gulf monarchies, and Russia. China also faces a more credible choice of accelerating the development of renewable energy in the same way that India and the European Union face. US will act as a supplier of last resort  adding Venezuelan and other supplies but temporarily as the entire Middle East region poses quandaries for China, the US, and India, European Union. The quandary stems from the irreconciliable differences between religious sects in the region, post 1950 ideological and religious militancy,  in which neither China, India, the US, Russia or the European Union wants to get drawn into after 5 decades of bitter experience in the Middle East.

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The 800 foot Chinese ocean carrier Zhen Hua 29 sails into Kingston, Jamaica, from Shanghai on the long route with 5 cranes in epic 3 months voyage through the Indian Ocean around Mozambique- the last of the globalization voyages. As globalization dims these are the last of these voyages. US policy is for its control of the Panama Canal, the Monroe Doctrine in the western hemisphere, pushing out a globalization that hurt American industry and jobs in the USA. China continues on with its surplus capacity make for export policy, the US wants out from these imports, and the EU is wary of imports dependence.  Gemany's Foreign ministry under Wadephul is forming a commission to investigate German dependence on China made products. This is the last of the globalization that started with Clinton, and went on with Bush and Obama, wrecking huge parts of the American industrial base. Cranes- no longer made in the USA, one by one, including ships- no longer made in the USA. The great shipyards of Britain and the US languishing in disrepair! ...

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Automobiles, aerospace, pharmaceuticals and energy helped France reduce its deficit. French exports increase in 2025 and deficit decreases- euros 614 billion in exports to 703 billion in imports in 2025. Deficit with Germany down to euros 5 billion. Yet there is aproblem with deficit with China- going from euros 100 billion in 2019 to 315 billion euros in 2025. This is a major problem for France as it has been for the US.

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12% for Americas 20% for the world and 46% for China- amount of oil imports coming through Straits of Hormuz. US is self sufficent in oil supplies. China gets 5 million barrels a day through the Straits of Hormuz out of about 16 million barrels a day it uses, about 30% of its total oil needs. Insurers are withdrawing from the market. How will this affect oil supplies and prices? US has offered its financial institutions to offer insurance to all ships going through the Straits of Hormuz and provide assurance with defense escorts for tanker ships navigating the Straits of Hormuz. US will be targeting Iran's capabilities to keep the Straits of Hormuz open so that oil tankers can operate bringing oil from UAE and Qatar to Asia and Europe.

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US and Iran accept Pakistan's mediation of the war with a 2 week ceasefire and opening of Straits of Hormuz- April 7 2026. The mediation by prime minister Sharif of Pakistan gave both sides in the war a way to back down. Both sides agreed to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. As a partner of Pakistan, China may also have a role in setting up a settlement as China and Japan have the most to lose from the Straits of Hormuz being closed, oil prices rocketing up to $115 and higher, and even a prolonged shutdown of Hormuz Straits. Both China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits. Oil prices drop to the $100 level from $115 after the announcement of talks in Islamabad. This is not a long term settlement. After the two weeks US president meets president Xi of China in Beijing shortly afterwards on May 14-15. It is likely that preparations for that trip will involve China and Pakistan working together to get the US and Iran to agree to an extension of the ceasefire. One outcome of this war is as Le Monde has noted- the unreliability of Hormuz supplies and shift to imports from US and Venezuela and other parts of the world for fossil fuels. And with this a renewed effort to reduce the fossil fuels needed by accelerating renewable energy supplies in Europe, India and China. More attention will also be focused on reducing the proliferation of nuclear weapons by all major powers. Removing US involvement in NATO may also turn out to be positive in some ways to bring Russia and US as nuclear powers to better working relationships, and reduce the nuclear arms race and weapons race. For Europe it means meeting needs of Ukraine and improving military capabilities. The overall result may be positive for all countries. The Middle East region will be seen as one in which no powers should get involved in and the Middle East will also find it has squandered its valuable oil dividend in five decades of wars and mismanagement and fall behind the rest of Asia and Europe, the US in economic progress and development. ...

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Kharg Island near Hormuz and Jask Island on Gulf of Oman two of Iran's main oil export terminals. Oil is pumped by underwater sea pipelines to storage tanks that hold 30 million barrels on Kharg Island then loaded onto oil tankers that make their way through the Hormuz Straits. The oil is shipped to teapot refineries in China- smaller independent oil refineries in China that have not faced sanctions. This oil is shipped at a discount. How does China pay for this oil? China gets 2.1 million barrels a day from this source. It is paid for with a $400 billion Chinese investment in Iran under a 25 year Comprehensive Partnership Agreement signed in 2021 during the Biden Administration in the US. The investment covers energy, infrastructure and technology in Iran. At $60 a barrel before the Iran War China would have an import oil bill of $46 billion for 1 years supply of oil from Iran. This was paid for in yuan based transactions and barter systems which involved Iranian construction projects performed by China and exchange of other products, raw materials. ...

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Deteriorating China Iran relations as the oil imports from Iran for China face US tariffs of 25% on China's exports to US, and US economic relations far more significant for the Chinese economy. China gets somwhere between 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels aday from Iran (80% of Iran's oil exports) into Shandong refiners at $10 below Brent crude prices. Another 400 mbd comes from Venezuela to China. This means $30 billion comes to Iran from oil sales to China at $59 a barrel, and $8 billion for Venezuela from oil sales to China. This has financed much of the bellicose policies towards the US in the western hemisphere and in the Gulf region. Iran's bellicose policies in the Middle East, its nuclear policy, are now seen by China as a distraction and  detract from good economic relations with the US. China $400 billion oil deal 25 year cooperation agreement signed in 2021 was signed under the Biden administration and China today faces a completely different situation in 2026. Even China's relations with Russia are not the same as the US builds better relations with Russia. A wind down of the Ukraine war would change the situation completely and ensure peace in Europe including Russia, as the US works with the EU to meet future challenges having learned from this experience in Europe (Ukraine dividing Europe) and in the Western hemisphere (drug/ migrant. trafficking). When historians write this chapter of the inflows of capital from advanced West to Arab countries and the Gulf region they will write about the huge contrast between China/India's efforts to modernize and these nations where much of that capital was wasted in wars and conflicts and in grandiose projects that made no material difference to the standard of living and quality of life of the vast number of ordinary people. Once the oil dividend is gone with fossil fuels replaced with renewable energy by 2035-2040 this opportunity to advance is lost for the Arab and Gulf region. ...

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US DJT Tariffs impact 1 year later- global trade has held up well with US unemployment at 4.4% and economic growth at 2.1%. China imports down from 20% in 2016 to 10% ten years later in 2026. For DJT that was a promise kept leading to a sharp decoupling of the US economy from the Chinese economy that was leading to huge trade deficits of 1 trillion dollars. Too much of the world's supply chain was tied up with manufacturing in China. It got so bad under Reagan, the two Bushes, Clinton/Obama that the US and EU were facing deindustrialization with huge risks to the future of the US and Europe as industrial powers. 150 years of industrialization and scientific advancement, the great achievements of Europe and the United States since 1860's was going up in smoke over reckless policies of Republican and Democratic elites who gave little thought and barely understood the long run effects of their policies and textbook theories of the economy. Most economists from ivy league universities got it completely wrong. ...

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Greg Ip says what a difference US policy under DJT has made for energy independence and for exports. US economic growth is affected only slightly as it exports oil and LNG. Forecasts by Citi revised for the US for economic growth by only 0.1% downward for the Iran War, for the European Union by 0.4%. EU spends 1-2% of GDP to get imports of LNG and oil. US gets 0.2% of GDP for the oil and LNGit exports.  The US is in a strong position with oil policies to increase production and there is also additional supplies from Venezuela that can be added to replace Persian Gulf supplies. Which is why DJT can tell the world and the Europeans, Japan and China to get their own oil and do the job of opening Hormuz because US does not get any of its oil and LNG from Hormuz straits. In 2025 EU gets LNG from Norway 89, US 81, and Russia 37 in billions of cubic meters of imports for total in 2025 of 207 down from 257 total in 2021 because of conservation. US LNG will increase as US sells more LNG to Europe in 2026 and 2027 and reduces the little it imports from Russia. EU is doing a good job of conservation that the US can adopt to export even more to India and Japan replacing some of the supplies from the Persian Gulf nations. ...

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The difference between US imports and exports is down from $418 billion in 2018 to $280 billion in last 12 months (August 2024 to July 2025) showing the impact of tariffs and policies of the DJT administration to level the playing field and for getting out of the trade deficits that hurt American jobs, workers, and communities. Tariffs of 20% for fentanyl issue and 125% made it 145% for import tariff on China after Liberation Day. These were lowered to 30% after trade talks. This where it stands today. 

The figure of $280 billion is higher because of transshipping by China through Vietnam- for transshipping the 20% tariff on Vietnam goes up to 40%. Another aspect of the figure of $280 billion is that it is last 12 months which reflects 5 months of the Biden administration, and the surge in imports before deadlines when DJT tariffs would come into place. Battery imports are up, smartphones, toys and apparel is down.

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Oil tanker hit off Dubai port carrying 2 million barrels of oil to China from Kuwait and Saudi on March 30 2026. This is the first big hit by a drone or missile of a ship carrying over 1 million barrels of oil. Crew of 24 was unhurt and the ship survived the hit by a drone with no oil leaking into the waters of the Persian Gulf. China gets 90% of its oil imports through the Straits of Hormuz. Which is why DJT says when this is about keeping shipping lanes open for oil transit it makes no sense that a Nation like the US that is self sufficient in oil and gas should have to take on the responsibilities of keeping  international shipping lanes open without any help from China- or Japan and South Korea. It is one reason for the US president's critical remarks on lack of such help, particularly from allies from the European continent.

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Three BBC correspondents on China's 2026 National People's Congress - effort to invest in childcare and elder care services to increase consumer spending. To continue in solar, robotics, AI, EV's, and exports as before. The problems of industrial overcapacity and pushing subsidized product into the US or EU that cause trade tensions and tariffs will continue.  New 301 investigations by US Trade Representative are taking place and will complete by mid-July. Germany's chancellor was in Beijing making a similar point about industrial overcapacity and German business is now facing the same threats to their business that the US has gone through. The one other way for China to grow is to increase consumer spending- hence the effort to help young people with childcare costs and retired people with elder care. The payments to seniors is low says the BBC's McDonnell who says the increase in payment to rural and non-working urban residents of $3 per month is miniscule. No details given for housing support to newly married couples. On one aspect relevant to the Iran war-China is increasing its efforts on renewable energy to reduce imports from volatile Middle East. ...

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Britain to lead coalition efforts in Strait of Hormuz- in the 1950's this part of the world was still part of the British Empire. Britain was the dominant power in Iran in 1900 and was also dominant in Turkey for a period after the First War in 1918 in Turkey. With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire Britain and France assumed a stewardship role over what is now Israel, Iraq, Syria. Only after the rise of Ataturk in Turkey in the 1930's were there independence movements and anti-monarchial movements in the region. Ataturk was an avowed modernizer who Europeanized Turkey, that was not so with the anti-monarchial movements in Iraq, Syria, which led to a great deal of unheavals and the wars we know today as Iraq war, Afghan war, Iran war. In Iraq and Syria it was a form of Soviet Communist/ Socialist  style movements that took power, and in Iran it came in the form of a religious movement based on Shia Islam that by the 1990's clashed with the socialist movements in Iraq and Syria. Syria and Iraq disintegrated costing the US dearly in resources and men, and the Afghan wars hurt both the Soviets (Russia) and the US. The Iran war may be the last of these wars as the US and Europe, and Russian Europe, China, India and Japan, close this chapter in their interactions to a region that is impervious to the kind of modernization that started in 17th century Europe with the Renaissance, in 18th and 19th century Europe with the Scientific Revolution, and in 20th century Europe with the Industrial Revolution, that was fervently desired in Russia, Japan, China and India as these ideas spread over western and southern Asia like wild fire and were adopted as emancipating and with a sense of wonder by the Asian people as their own.  The world may soon decide it can do without Hormuz. China Japan, and India can secure alternative supplies of oil from US and Russia, and ramp up their production of renewable energy to make Hormuz redundant by 2030 and- history. Germany already has shown the way - getting only 6% of imports of energy from that region. ...

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Tariff revenues from import duties on imports from China on apparel, electronics, tools, consumer goods added up to $7 billion in September 2019. A 15% duty on consumer goods was effective September 1, 2019, with $111 billion of this item imported in 2018. 

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Iraq is an artifical entity, an artificial state created by the British out of the defeated and disintegrated Ottoman Empire. Created from 3 Ottoman Arab provinces- provinces or vilayets of Mosul province which was mostly Sunni, Baghdad province, the city of Baghdad  mostly Sunni and rural areas Shia, and Basra in the south mostly Shia from tribes who converted to Shia Islam extending the reach of Shia religious sites such as Karbala. Note that the Sunni Arabs were closer to the power structures of the Ottoman Empire than Shia in the 18th and 19th century. As a result post war Iraq in 1950's was dominated by Sunni elites and the British imposed Faisal 1 monarchy of 1921 was thrown out by Sunni elites in the army in 1958 by Karim Kassem, followed by the emergence of Saddam Hussein from Pan Arab Baath socialist ideologies of that period.  After the US wars in Iraq and Iraq- Iran war, Iran mobilized Shia into popular militias. In 2026 Iraq is essentially several ministates pulled together in Baghdad, with Shia, Sunni and Kurdish ministates formed into the governing structure, and everyone praying for no outside interference to pull it all apart and maintain a fragile peace. While the British got Iraq Mandate from League of Nations in 1921 French got Syria provinces of the Ottoman Empire. In fact Sykes and Picot are the British and French diplomats who created artificial states of Iraq and Syria to suit their interests in the region for oil and for controlling Suez and territories in India, Indochina, Hong Kong, parts of coastal China (Shanghai). Why is this important? It is important because at the time Britian dealt with weak Sunni populations that were controlled through monarchs they put in place, and the British and French industrial power had no rivals. Today the Sunnis are mobilized and the Shia have with Iranian support mobilized also, and sectarian wars have torn the place apart for 40 years. America's founding fathers and first president George Washington, would if here today consider this the one place US would have nothing to do with in terms of wars and bases. On oil George Washington would advise America to find alternative sources than get dragged into useless sectarian wars and lose the battle for reindustrialization, after America's elites and their economists have essentially deindustrialized America. It is appropriate for the US president to take action only on grounds of not letting the place fall into regimes with ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons that could reach US and Europe. And for that China and Russia, India and Brazil, Germany and France should also do their part and fulfill responsibilities. As for Britain and France it is appropriate for the US president to say to the posturing in Europe and ambivalent posiions, "Go, get you own oil in the Hormuz," as the US is self sufficient in oil and does not need Iranian or Iraqi oil. It is also appropriate knowing that this Iraq and Syria were created by Sykes and Picot and the British and French to build and sustain their Empires that no longer exist because Turkey and India, and China, through the effort of Gandhi and Ataturk, Sun-Yat Sen and Mao, Brazil also, are now strong independent nations. The message is- if Germany can do it to get only 6% of energy imports from Hormuz straits, so can China and Japan. China and Japan get 90% of their imports from the Hormuz straits and there is no reason why China and Japan, Britain, India need to be so dependent on a region where disruptions have happened again and again for 40 years. If they do not want to change they can assume the responsibilities of keeping Hormuz Straits on their own. ...

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Najib Razak of the UMNO United Malay National Organization who succeeded post independence leader Mahathir Mohamed of Malaysia is implicated in the1MDB scandal that also involved Goldman Sachs. $4.3 billion is estimated to be stolen from the Malaysian sovereign wealth fund. Razak is given a15 year jail sentence in a scandal that has rocked Malaysian politics and reduced confidence in Malaysia's investment for modernization. irreparable harm is done to the nation's British inherited institutions for law and order, responsible parliamentary government, following the long premiership of Mahathir, ethnic nationalist "putra" movement of the UMNO, and the governments that followed Mahathir including Razak. Similar problems have affected other countries with ethnic nationalist movements in Sri Lanka where corruption and mismanagement of the state finances and treasury led to lack of funds for essential imports, and in other countries in Asia. Corrupt practices and misuse of state funds intended for development became a feature of government in Indian states following the rule of the Indian Congress party under Jawaharlal Nehru, with ethnic nationalism creating ethnic states in India, and causing irreparable harm to development and modernization with lack of capital and policy decisions. This has led to the lag of modernization in India with China of about 10-15 years that also affects defense at the Himalayan border with China as China's hybrid state capitalist economy surpassed India and matched the US in 2 decades 2000-2025. Only now is India under responsible governance pushing to close the gap and modernize rapidly under a new government in it's third term. Much of the thinking that accompanied post independence decolonization is now under question with it's assumptions that decolonization alone would lead to development is debunked. Modernization as China and India has learned comes from the good and responsible use of abundant capital, abundant labor, and abundant management resources, abundant technological access, good policy and plans at the federal and state levels, and good sustained leadership from the top. ...

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Prof. Patrice Geoffron of Universite Paris-Dauphine writes in Le Monde what is on everyone's minds- on how oil geopolitics and fossil fuel price volatility and price uncertainty what he calls fossil fuel chaos, is creating a new demand for renewable energy in Europe in 2027 to 2031. Business and industry in Europe see the value of renewable energy not in comparison with low fossil fuel prices anymore but with a fossil fuel price that can jump at any time to the $100 a barrel for some geopolitical event. Compared to this fossil chaos European business and industry can depend on a known price and known conditions for solar energy. The same thinking will be going on in business in Asia- in China and established leader in solar, in India an aspiring solar power, and in Japan. Modular nuclear reactors are also a new way to go. This means even under DJT with his skepticism for renewables the technology and production of renewables will continue and pick up pace. People will also ask whether its worth all the trouble to get fossil fuel supplies at levels that make no sense through waters of Hormuz straits- China and Jpan getting a makes no sense 90% of their imports from Hormuz, and India nearly 50%. Their are moral considerations also whether a morally conscious China, Japan and India, South Korea with much of the industrial base in the world can justify missile attacks on the scale of tens of thousands in the region and bombing just to clear Hormuz. ...

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China has banned coal imports from Australia in response to Australian request for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus and criticism of China's handling of Hong Kong protests. 

China imports about a quarter of its coal imports from Australia. Yet this has impacted China because of a rebound in the economy and a very cold winter in 2020. This means there is a shortage of electricity in some parts of China. 

China imports 80% of its iron ore, with 60% coming from Australia and prices of iron ore have almost doubled in the past year. Last year China imported over 1 billion tons of iron ore.

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By taking action in Venezuela in a way that benefits the Venezuelan people (and similar action in the long run interests of the Iranian people to dedicate most of the resources for development and increase share of oil revenues without discounting and removing sanctions ill effects on economy and quality of life) major new changes can improve quality of life in the world.  Venezuelan production which was 3 million barrels a day has declined to 900,000 without US investment and technological upgrades. With US investment this can be increased to put additional oil supplies on the market lost in the war with Iran and smaller traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. Venezuelan crude is best suited to US refineries which frees up shale oil for export to meet needs of India and Europe. China which had hyper growth through massive oil consumption would reduce its growth rate and its impact on climate change as it adjusts to the loss of 3 million barrels a day it no longer gets from Iran. Slower growth rate in China is good for the climate as it is the hyper growth of China that put the most pressure on climate even as Europe and the US had cut  fossil fuels consumption over the last decade. China made 2 coal plants a week and 95% of all new global coal construction in 2023. India needs additional oil supplies as it increases its growth rate from a much lower point of development (and electricity poverty) than China. By simply settling for normal development compared to hyper development targets( China has reached a point of Oil Fairness Percentage where each country gets to use the same percentage of oil as its population is as a percentage of world population- the number being about 17% for China for both, with the number being 18% for India and it having a shortfall of 12% based on its oil consumption being only 6% of the world total). China can reduce oil and coal consumption reducing pressure on oil prices and absorbing most of the impact from the loss of Iranian oil. China and Russia + (old Soviet territory) Canada, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, make up about 40% of the world's territorial landmass, would be large beneficiaries with improved climatic conditions from burning less coal. They are now highly developed countries and do not need hyper growth which requires China to build 2 coal plants a week and consume excessive amounts of crude oil and coal based on artificially set targets that make no sense by destroying the climate when no child in China lacks electricity to read. Marathon Philipps Valero with over half a million barrels of refining capacity for heavy Venezuelan crude can now put this to use using the imports by US of lower priced (by $9 to Brent crude) Venezuelan crude oil. In a few months of 2025 US has imported 280,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in February 2026 alone some of it going to the large Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. American oil refiners make larger margins using the Venezuelan crude than they make on light crude from shale oil producers in the US. What this does is to increase the supply of crude and refined oil products on the market as the light crude get shipped overseas to India and Europe- including countries like Spain which took in 100,000 barrels a day of shale crude from US in February 2026. ...

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US policy is to end war as soon as nuclear threat is over- DJT on Iran war on March 31 2026. When the US feels Iran 'won't be able to come up with a nuclear weapon, then we'll leave,' says DJT. US is self sufficient and exports oil to Europe. It doesn't need Iranian oil. DJT makes that clear to allies in Europe who have not taken a stand in the war and limited access to their airbases, saying as Starmer did yesterday that Britain did not want to expand the war. Really, the US does not want to expand the war. DJT's MAGA base does not want this war, and Biden's base does not want this war. US does not need Straits of Hormuz- it is Britain, Italy and EU countries, mainly China, Japan, South Korea that need the Straits of Hormuz. Speaking for the US DJT tells these countries in Europe to get the oil themselves in the Straits. He also tells China to get the oil from the Straits- if they need it and are so complacent as to get 90% of their imports from Hormuz after 40 years of disruptions and wars, as China does. DJT said- "If France or some other country wants to get oil or gas, they'll go up through the Hormuz Strait, they'll go right up there, and they'll be able to fend for themselves. What happens with the strait we're not going to have anything to do with, because these countries, China, China will go up and they'll fuel up their beautiful ships... and they'll take care of themselves. There's no reason for us to do it." "The USA won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!" ...