LyrArc Article Gist
Instead of a jinx much to the contrary the US economy outlook for 2030 in Feb 2026- a surge in investment spending in 2026-2030, new manufacturing investments and lower energy costs, moderating inflation, are likely to propel the US economy ahead to 2030.The effect of tariffs as a policy making tool has been muted because of exemptions, reversal of tariff rates once key objectives were secure for tariffs as a way to get action on foreign policy as with Indian purchases of Russian oil, deals with Japan, South Korea and China, India, UK and the EU. Some sources such as the Philadelphia Fed see price rises reaching 3% in some inflation guages more than the moderate 2.5% in the consumer price index for January 2026. These sources see the hiring slowing down just as layoffs begin to happen in the latter part of the year which is a possibility but less likely. At this point in Feb 2026 there is a tendency not to layoff and to hang onto employees, and hiring has been slow in 2025. January's report of 130,000 jobs added is the first sign of strengthening of the jobs market. Overall a cautious view would be to call it a soft landing after the inflation surge of the covid period. Another way of looking at is is more in line with the strategic direction of the US economy- freeing up the economy with investments in energy,  reducing the key costs of production, tax policy of Bessent's complete one shot depreciation of equipment increasing business investment, tariff policy making the world trading system fairer and now more attuned to US interests, all creating an investment and jobs surge in 2026-2027. There is an added benefit from US efforts to free up the world trading system from the stranglehold placed on it by China with its control over world manufacturing. A dominance and unwise concentration gained from the serious mistakes of the Bush-Clinton period of not putting in safeguards for US factories and jobs (that form the backbone for families in neighborhoods towns and regions across the US), and US business interests growing indifference to the very communities they were based in by outshoring to China destroying whole regions in America. Even where it is criticized or seen as negative there are huge benefits when the US acted. Tariff increase on India is a clear example- it built Indian resilient attitude in June-Feb 2026, and during this period it cut funding Russia's war in Ukraine by sourcing energy from other sources, the US policy led to India and EU+ Germany signing trade agreements to double their effort and double trade and scientific cooperation ( a goal secured for the US as it reduces concentration in China), was followed by US signing its own trade agreement with India within days, and increases world trade of US and EU and Germany in ways that will bring 2.5 billion people into a strong partnership that overshadows anything that happened in China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years of failure. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
German Foreign Ministry is to take up question of dependence on China in 2026, and a commission will look into it. Yet this comes 2, 3 or 4 years too late. Germany is scrambling to develop it's foreign policy. German Defense officials in the military say they no longer have 24 contact with their US counterparts. Germany is pulling Britain and France with it to counter any signs of weakness in Europe, so that the three countries can act as a counter weight to the US, and to Russia allied with China. Merz is now called the foreign policy chancellor. So much has changed from the Merkel days which are years that were wasted in infrastructure, digital, foreign policy, and migration policies that make sense for people's ease of living. Germans may have underestimated Merz in the way they overestimated Merkel, lacking the clear view of what the future requires from Germany in a world filled with China, India, Brazil and the other nations of Europe, and the US, a world which requires confidence and investment. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Cost of Living Crisis under Biden, Affordability Crisis under DJT, and the situation in Feb 2026 with 2.4% inflation and job creation at 130,000 jobs in January 2026. Is this a sign that the tariffs policy is greatly misrepresented and misunderstood? The flexibility in tariffs, attention to financial markets through Scott Bessent's keen sghts at the Treasury shared with the president, the cutouts for key countries such as India to exclude semiconductors and cell phonesand other products from tariffs. For instance under tariffs increase India actually increased its exports by diversifying its economy and signing a trade agreement with Germany and the EU, followed by the trade agreement with the US, so that it remains an enven stronger economic partner. The same is true for Japan where elections are leading to a parliamentary majority for PM Sanae Takaichi who wants to work with the US and build a strong economic partnership, and make the large investments in the US it has promised.  Japan and India are two of the five largest economies in the world (US, China, Japan, India, Germany). German Foreign Minister Wadephul for the CDU welcomed Marco Rubio's call for a "new Western Century" and for strengthening western civilization common heritage of the US and Europe. This means 4 of the 5 largest economies in the world are in sync for the future of world trade, and their economic future.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Foreign institutional investment in India declined to a mere $172 million in April 2012, from $5 billion in February. Foreign direct investment in India is falling. It was down to $27.5 billion in 2011, with only $4.2 billion in Jan-Feb. 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
India's foreign exchange reserves reached an all time high of $545 billion in October 2022. By December this had dropped to $561 billion because of the central bank RBI's effort to maintain the value of the Indian currency in relation to the US dollar. This is at Rs 81 to the the dollar in Dec 2022. India' needs healthy foreign exchange reserves to finance imports for its industrialization and investment efforts to modernize the country. Inflation is also a priority to keep the cost of living at levels that provide affordability. This is at about 5% in Dec. 2022. Finance minister Sitharaman cited this as key achievements. Including large foreign investment inflows as part of changing the supply chain to include India as a manufacturing hub for the west. This sets the stage for long term growth.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Indian Budget speech by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman seeks to keep the fiscal deficit on a downward trajectory from 4.9% fiscal deficit in 2024, lowering it each year 2025-2028. The total expenditures for Indian Budget 2024 are $720 billion and the total government revenues excluding borrowing $480 billion, tax revenues $390 billion. To attract investment by foreign companies in India the corporate tax rate is reduced from 40% to 35%. And abolition of angel tax for startups. capital gains tax reduced to 20% for short term gains and 12.5% for long term gains. Simplification of the Income Tax Act of 1961 within 6 months. Lowering of taxes for personal income taxes to 30% above 15 lakh rupees. Exempt 25 critical minerals from basic customs duties to assist processing in India. Reduce basic customs duties on mobile phones to 15%. Customs duties to support domestic manufacturing, export competitiveness. Simplify and rationalize the hugely beneficial GST Tax, "a success of vast proportions, reducing the compliance burden and logistics cost for trade and industry." "The gross and net market borrowings through dated securities during 2024-25 are estimated at ` 14.01 lakh crore and ` 11.63 lakh crore respectively. Both will be less than that in 2023-24. 114. The fiscal consolidation path announced by me in 2021 has served our economy very well, and we aim to reach a deficit below 4.5 per cent next year. The Government is committed to staying the course. From 2026-27 onwards, our endeavour will be to keep the fiscal deficit each year such that the Central Government debt will be on a declining path as percentage of GDP." For the year 2024-25, the total receipts other than borrowings and the total expenditure are estimated at ` 32.07 lakh crore and ` 48.21 lakh crore respectively. The net tax receipts are estimated at ` 25.83 lakh crore. The fiscal deficit is estimated at 4.9 per cent of GDP. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Three tankers held off the coast of Mumbai by India's Cost Guard have been sanctioned for carrying Iranian oil. India stopped buying Iranian oil in DJT's first term 2016-2020. In his second term DJT wanted India to stop buying sanctioned Russian oil as a way to reduce funding for Russia's invasion of Ukraine now in its fourth year. India has stopped buying Russian oil as part of the goodwill effort to reach trade agreements with the US, EU, and Germany. The seizing of the oil tankers is part of a new effort by India to support bringing Russia to the negotiating table to end the Ukraine war. Russia has demanded Ukraine turn over Donetsk region to end the war, which is a major stumbling block as Ukraine says there are Ukrainians living in Donetsk region. Germany's increase in its defense budget and investment in its armed forces has led to Germany+ (Germany plus UK and France) acting as the chief supporter of Ukraine, after the US has taken more of a neutral stand. The US basically wanting to end the war in 2026 so that the US can address the situation in the western hemisphere with drug and migrant trafficking gangs in Mexico, Venezuela and Columbia, and rebuild its economy to bring back manufacturing from China. For India the guiding principle of its foreign policy is Gandhiji's thinking and advice for fairness and peaceful coexistence - it does not believe in a British inspired NATO expanding on the borders of Russia, and at the same time does not see how a war on a neighboring Russian speaking region is in Russia's continued interest for a fourth year with bombing of energy infrastructure to leave Kviv in darkness. Non -alignment was Nehru's not Gandhiji's idea- the ideas of respect and fairness are basic to Gandhiji's thinking and India will remain true to his ideas in world relations. One aspect of this change in world affairs is missed by all and the media, that is that with the EU and US+ Japan, and India+ Indonesia there is a population of 1 billion of western peoples, and about 2 billion of Asian peoples, for a total of 3 billion people. This is a region three times the size of China, which with its access to capital and technology, labour and good governance is in a position to industrialize and reindustrialize, and bring manufacturing/science and technology to the core of this economic region by 2035. An industrialized India with 2X-3X the size of its current GDP will still be governed on Gandhiji's ideas for world relations in 2047. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
As shown in this Guardian report about clean tap drinking water in China in 2017 pollution of rivers and lakes was so severe that anywhere between half to 80 of water in rivers was not drinkable. This was just before the pandemic. Efforts since 2015 to tackle the problem are still in progress. This is happening as India works on getting 100% of 190 million homes covered for drinking tap water in India by 2024. Out of this 116 million homes or 60% have clean drinking tap water in 2023 under prime minister Modi's  Jal Jeevan Mission (Water for Life) led by IAS's Mr Parmeswaran. India and China started out in 1990 with about the same GDP. China attracted foreign investment to accelerate its economic growth to where its GDP is much higher today than India. Yet in 2023 India starting from behind has some advantages. In the case of clean drinking water, limiting contamination of the rivers with effective regulation of industries which was missing in China, and providing clean drinking water with newer technological means is one of these advantages. Indian investment comes with the technology of the 2020's compared to China's investment using technology from the 2000 period. This will create additional gains in GDP and quality of GDP in its challenge of matching and exceeding growth in China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Foreign investment at high rates helped China build its middle class. In the first quarter of 2023 it dropped to $20 billion from $100 billion a year earlier. This means about $80 billion will be going elsewhere to increase incomes and the middle class through investments in the US itself, and in countries such as India and Vietnam.

LyrArc Article Gist
Kristof of the NYT writes about DJT Action in Venezuela January 3, 2026.  Some of the least understood aspects of the US president's language on Venezuela- The president's reference to oil resources is not for the US to benefit from the oil reserves. It is about oil in the sense that the oil industry in Venezuela is in total disrepair and broken from years and decades of nationalization followed by lack of investment, lack of western technology.  Sanctions put a huge price on the Venezuelan economy with the brunt of it borne by ordinary people- the same people that a socialist like Hugo Chavez thought he could help with his erratic ideology. As China, and now India has learned the only way to get ahead in this world for nations is to invest, invest, invest with larger and larger pools of capital, technologies and labour. By alienating the US or EU there is a loss of technologies and of investment so that one is going to bat with only one strike and you are out, so that from Day 1, China under Mao, India under Nehru had lost the race, so did all the "socialist" regimes in the world. Conversely China under Deng and successors, and India under Modi are breaking development records. How does the US change this? First it removes the sanctions on the Venezuelan economy. Second it gives Chevron the green light for increased production. Oil facilities of the Venezuelan oil company will get foreign investment and US investment from American oil companies with returns for both and the state oil revenues invested under a government that is able to invest it free of corruption or it being funneled out of the country to support other regimes in Latin America. This will rebuild the country's health system, its broken infrastructure, restore its finances, and make it in a decade one of the advanced economies in Latin America. But only if- the gangs and other private militias, the other military elements from the two decades of utter mismanagement and drug trafficking are  removed. A new way will have to be devised that the US as to work out ad hoc meaning in the process of doing, invented that meets the conditions of getting this done and the process of reconstruction of Venezuela under the Monroe doctrine of keeping the entire western hemisphere free of such elements. The US achieved this with the help of Great Britain in 1823 when it was only 50 years since it's founding in 1776. The US has the resources in 2026 to make this happen in the interests of the people of the western hemisphere, in the quality of life of people in the western hemisphere. It does not seek any country's resources, it seeks the development of the countries in the western hemisphere in the great tradition of Jefferson, Monroe, Lincoln, FDR and JFK. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
India's GST tax collections - which finance infrastructure -reach the 1.40 lakh crore mark  (about $20 billion) for 3 months in a row in 2022. Increase in tax compliance culture, audit analytics, and actions against tax evaders, helped increase GST revenue collections. Revenues from import of goods and revenues from domestic transactions were 44% higher than the same month in the prior year. The increased economic activity and creating tax compliance culture are good indicators for economic growth in addition to the GDP numbers showing about 8% growth in 2021, the highest in the world surpassing China by a wide margin.  The growth slowed to about 4% increase in GDP in the 1st quarter yet the events of the first quarter such as the war in Ukraine increasing food and oil prices, depressing economic activity, have some other indicators unique to India that are entirely positive and hold promise for a surge in economic growth in this decade to 2030. With the pandemic years 2020-2021 pointing to shift in supply chains of US and Germany away from China towards India and other Asian nations, the Russian invasion of Ukraine with support of China will only make this shift move faster. At a time when Indian logistics and infrastructure improvements under the PM's Gati Shakti Master Plan will create the right conditions for massive foreign investment in the Indian economy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US foreign direct investment to China goes down 40% in 2020 to 2022 compared to the period 2015 to 2020, for India this was up by 20%, according to IMF. India was the only G-20 country that received this level of foreign direct investment. Prashant Jha of the Hindustan Times correctly points out that the IMF paper and the model on which this paper is based are flawed. The paper sees countries based on alignment and India as a so called non aligned country not part of friendshoring, even though Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has openly called for friendshoring in India alongside finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. IMF experts have not caught up to Mr. Biden's remarks about the US- India relationship that it would be "the closest on earth." Closer even than America's relationship with Britain or Europe. On oil imports Biden and Jake Sullivan believe that after the pandemic India should import oil at the lowest possible cost to meet the long time denied aspirations of 1.2 billion people, and build the infrastructure that will make it a critical part of America's new supply chain. Every time there are military drills and blockade of Taiwan by China the people of America are moving a step further away from American companies that have overconcentration of manufacturing in China and closer to calling for a new supply chain that reduces concentration in China and builds new manufacturing in India.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Economic growth in India has slowed to 6.9% for the June to September period 2011, compared with the prior year, according to a government report. The sequence of rate increases by India's central bank have failed to slow inflation, and foreign investment is declining. Economists now forecast growth at 6% for 2012, a low rate of growth for India, which has a growing population approaching 1.2 billion people and serious infrastructure problems. This creates a scenario of stagflation- high inflation and low growth. The fears are now for a combination of high government debt, infrastructure issues, and lack of foreign investment. This is leading to moves by the Indian government to bring up long delayed efforts in the area of opening the retail industry to foreign investment. And lifting quotas on foreign ownership of Indian bonds, allowing foreign pension managers into India. The value of the Indian currency has declined 15%, in 3 months since August 2011. The eurozone crisis and the combination of slowgrowth and high unemployment in the U.S. are leading to foreign investors withdrawing from emerging markets, with a sharp impact on India. A combination of domestic and international factors are hitting India after two decades of high growth. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Small business and farmers are driving a recovery in the Indian economy in the latter half of 2020 after the impact of the pandemic. Rural India with demand from farmers for cars and tractors is also helping build demand. Maruti Suzuki, India's largest auto manufacturer, had sales increase of 10% in rural India vs. 4% overall in the third quarter of 2020. Manufacturing and farm sector are leading the recovery. Transport and hotel, airlines are also seeing an increase in demand. From 2 million in June airline passengers have increased to 5 million in September compared to 12 million before the pandemic. The second generation reforms made by the Modi administration and the many initiatives are expected to boost the potential growth and scale of the Indian economy. Building a strong manufacturing sector and getting foreign investment in that sector is also a critical step to building the economy's growth potential. Working with Taiwanese investment and investment from the U.S. and the European Union is part of this effort. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
New rules for foreign direct investment in India will allow foreign multibrand retailers to own upto 51% of joint ventures in India. Rules set earlier allowed foreign retailers like Wal-Mart to only setup wholesale joint ventures. The move by the Indian government lets Wal-Mart, Carrefour, Metro Group and other retailers open supermarkets. The rules were also changed to allow 100% ownership for single brand retailers such as Nike stores. Prior rules limited single brand retailers to 51% ownership. This is a major step because of the growth in the Indian retail market, and the small portion of the overall market that is occupied by large retail chains with well developed supply chain management. Technopak Advisors Pvt. Ltd, a consulting firm in New Delhi, estimates that the Indian retail market has sales of about $470 billion a year, with only about 5% of this or $27 billion in modern organized retail operations. In the five year period 2012-2016 sales are expected to grow to $675 billion, with $85 billion coming from organized retail. Companies with operations in India that are expected to expand operations include Bharti Wal-Mart, Tesco which has a agreement with Tata Group's Star Bazaar stores, Germany's Metro Group AG. according to these numbers, even with competition from the organized large stores, smaller stores will still occupy 88% compared to 95% of the retail space in 2016. And the growth in the overall market means that the smaller mom and pop type stores will still have growth from $443 billion today to $590 billion in 2016. A government backed study by ICRIER shows that smaller stores lose about 23% of sales in the first year, but recover quickly in following years because of growth in the overall market. The introduction of modern supply chain management, modern refrigeration methods, and large investments by leading global retailers is likely to change the way food and other products are stored and marketed, a revolutionary change for India where these methods and investments lag far behind the developed world. For this reason this may give major impetus to modernizing the Indian economy....

LyrArc Article Gist
Zero covid lockdowns have added to the sentiment seeing China as a less attractive location for foreign investment. American companies are seeing staff resign due the lockdowns and zero covid policy. About a fourth of companies in a US Chamber of Commerce survey see a 20% drop in sales in 2022. A similar situation is being seen for European companies in China. The other area of growth from property sector is not working anymore as there is a 59% drop in demand for new property units. Investors in the property sector fear  another situation like that of property developer Evergrande's collapse.  Similar to Japan by 2000 a lot of the government infrastructure for roads and rail and automobiles has already been built leaving less room for this sector to kick in. Investments are possible in AI, renewables, electric cars, and advanced technologies, with limited potential to tackle loss of jobs in other sectors such as construction and government financed infrastructure spending and in retail stores. Retail sales are hit by inflation and high gas prices. The result is that China's GDP may fall by 1% according to one estimate for this quarter from the previous year. For growth and foreign investment look to India where a surge in government financed infrastructure in construction of roads and rapid transit, fast rail, construction of housing, and rapid increase in use of mobile phones, automobiles, and appliances is taking place. A new logistics system is being built with a Master plan for the whole economy under Gati Shakti creating a whole new place for foreign investment in a country of 1.3 billion. With Indonesia and Bangladesh closely related to India this is a market of 1.8 billion people far surpassing China and built on values of democracy ingrained over 100 years since the experiments under the British of elected state assemblies. This happened under limited Hind Swaraj since 1930's when India was led by Mohandas Gandhi in these early experiments with democracy. Germany, France and the US have a lot in common with India and the ground is being prepared with improvements for extensive German, US foreign investment by the Modi administration.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Prime minister Manmohan Singh moves forward with moves to open up the retail sector to foreign investment and other steps to attract foreign investors. In a televised address he appeals to Indians to support his government's efforts to reduce the deficit by increasing diesel prices, placing caps on cooking gas subsidies, and open up the retail sector to foreign investment. Singh's coalition will survive with a parliamentary majority after the withdrawal of a party based in W. Bengal state led by Mamta Banerjee, by getting the support of a party based in Uttar Pradesh state led by Mulayam Singh Yadav. Singh tells Indians: "we are at a point where we can reverse the slowdown in our growth. We need a revival in investor confidence domestically and globally.'' Earlier efforts to open up the retail sector to foreign investment failed because of Banerjee. Singh also warned Indians of the problems Europe is facing and the need for strong action to prevent a similar situation happening in India. India's political picture has changed since the days of Nehru and Indira Gandhi as no single party has support in all parts of the country, and federal governments in New Delhi are based on coalitions led by Congress party or the BJP party. Singh is known for his market opening moves as finance minister in a Congress led government in the early 1990's. Political strains and corruption scandals have weakened Singh's government in 2011-2012 leading to the lack of clear policies on the deficit and foreign investment, a situation Singh seeks to firmly correct. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
After increasing the price of subsidized diesel, the Indian government lays out a plan to cut the deficit over five years. The plan sets a goal for the deficit of 5.3% for fiscal year ending March 2013 to come down to 3% by 2017. Earlier India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), had said the government needed to take action on the deficit before it reduced interest rates. The RBI faces a difficult task in reducing rates to stimulate the slowing economy because inflation was 7.8% in Sept. 2012. At the same time the sharp decline in growth is a cause for serious concern- the most recent RBI forecast for GDP growth made in July for the current fiscal year through March 2013 is 6.5%. This may not be achieved as other economists have lowered the estimate to as low as 5% because of slow government action in economic reforms, high interest rates, and the uncertain global economc outlook. The last action by the RBI to lower interest rates was a drop of half a percentage point in April 2012. Much of the momentum for the Indian economy was lost in the first half of 2012 with the governments vacillating steps for opening the retail and other sectors to foreign investment. Only in October 2012 has prime minister Manmohan Singh set a clear direction by dropping coalition partners opposed to reforms and announcing new policies for foreign investment....

LyrArc Article Gist
Greg Ip in the WSJ says India is shifting towards  becoming an important partner with the US and the European Union in trade under the Modi government. This report reflects the situation upto 2021 and the changes in Indian and American perceptions during the pandemic. It does not reflect the rapidly evolving situation under president Biden.US president Biden and Jake Sullivan National Security Advisor see rapidly expanding US trade and investment in India. The recent Raisina Dialogue  brings together 26 countries- named after Raisina Hill in New Delhi where India's administration is located- in dialogue with Indian leaders. Finance Minister Sitharaman in an interview at Raisina Dialogue stated that Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, was with her during a G-20 meeting, and Yellen called for friendshoring- foreign investment in democracies that respect the rule of law and provide the right conditions for investment. The right conditions are now being created in India, including infrastructure and logistics, trade practices, and assistance to foreign companies, to invest in Indian manufacturing. The conditions are being created for shifting significant number of manufacturing facilities to India in a complete redesign of the supply chain. A look at the period 1950-2015 in US-EU India relations says little of the newly evolving situation in trade in the way that looking at the US-EU China relations 1950-1990 during the Cold War would tell one little about how that relationship evolved in trade after 1990 in the 1990-2019 period for massive trade with China. The pandemic and the inflation from existing supply chain bottlenecks has led to a realization in US-EU that the existing concentration of manufacturing in one country  was a mistake and is a serious problem that needs correction.  This means an acceleration in the effort to build rapidly over the next 5-10 years a strong US-EU manufacturing presence in India for advanced technologies. India under prime minister Modi is creating the infrastructure and logistics for this to happen with large domestic investment, the help of Denmark's Maersk in port logistics, and from other countries.  Fo India manufacturing and infrastructure building is the only way to create the jobs needed to meet the aspirations of its young population. For the US-EU the redesign of the supply chain is the highest priority to cut inflation, remove potential bottlenecks, and provide a stable supply chain.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
IKEA's plans announced in June 2012 for opening 25 stores in India with an investment of $1.9 billion. IKEA says it will meet the requirement that 30% of its products be sourced from small scale local industries, as it plans to increase its purchases in India from $450 million currently to $1 billion in a few years. It said the government should be flexible in its defining of small-enterprises. For India the entry of large scale retailers will help modernize its supplier base in a number of areas. India's current account deficit has increased to 4% of GDP making it important to send a strong positive signal to foreign investors.

LyrArc Article Gist
GST is to India what land sales were for China in its phase of rapid development and accelerated growth. It consolidated capital that could be then invested at the national and state levels on infrastructure, logistics for exports growth, creating a virtuous cycle of capital growth that could finance ever widening scale of development projects from metros, subways, rail, roads, bridges, airports, ports, logistics, tech related improvements. This was done in 2017 through a midnight session of parliament that passed the legislation needed. Years of endless discussion were turned into one session of implementing a single major tax system for India, transparent, digitized with new IT  Infosys playing a key role, and providing the pool of capital that has financed 5 years of development to take India past Britain as the fifth largest economy. Its pace of growth over 11% and accelerating with Maharashtra's GST growing at 24% in 2022-2023 over the prior year suggest that this will play a critical role in giving India a large pool of capital for growth. To be supplemented with foreign investment to make New India as a modernized nation. With an economy that will be exceeded only by the US and should catch up to China over the next 10 years. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. ranked first in an annual survey of executives rating places with favorable prospects for foreign direct investment. The survey by consulting firm A.T. Kearney has questions for executives of 302 large companies, all with sales above $500 million, about how likely they are to invest in countries over 2013-2015. It was done in October and November of 2012. On a scale of 0 to 3, the U.S. scored 2.09, China 2.02, Brazil 1.97, Canada 1.86, India 1.85, followed closely by Australia and Germany at 1.83 and the UK at 1.81. Mexico and Singapore are at No. 9 and 10 with 1.77. The survey shows the U.S., and Mexico gaining, China and India slipping, and English speaking countries UK, Australia and Singapore, as part of the 6 that are English speaking of the top 10 countries. Brazil's hosting of the Olympics and World Cup helped it maintain its position. The emerging market countries performance has slipped further since the survey, including Brazil, and the U.S. has made further gains in investor sentiment. The unrest among young people in Turkey, India, China, and Brazil as seen in street protests and credit financed booms may have further affected investor sentiment. The increase in natural gas production, revival of the midwestern economies, and a recovering housing market have boosted the U.S. economic prospects compared to emerging markets and the eurozone....

LyrArc Article Gist
A new state government in Bihar state, India, takes shape with Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister and 2 Deputy CM's from the BJP party. Bihar is the second largest state in India after Uttar Pradesh, with Maharashtra the third, West Bengal fourth making up the top four by population each with over 100 million people. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat make up the top 7 states each of these three with about 75 million population. Rapid economic development depends on state governments working with the federal government on investment, technologies and effective governance. Gujarat and Maharashtra form an industrial core for India with investment increasing in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh which forms the rural interior in the Ganges plains. In contrast to China where industrial development is state driven led by the CCP in a centralized form embedded in the complete authority of the central government, India has to achieve this through the democratic process based on delivery of infrastructure projects and standards of living. Much of this depends on the combined effort of federal and state governments ,with seven of these eight states having this coordinated effort in 2024, at a time when foreign investment in the economy is increasing rapidly to diversify global supply chains. This provides an opportunity for India to change from a developing economy to an advanced industrial economy in stages by 2030 and 2040. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
AP/NORC poll March 2023 shows 7 out of 10 adults in the US feel that the US is spending too much on development assistance when the budget for USAID is $40 billion. In general Republican administrations prefer foreign aid to be adminstered by the State Department not a separate agency. USAID was setup during the Cold War with the Soviet Union by president John F. Kennedy in 1961. Today it adminsters programs for HIV/Aids and for pandemics, health programs that can be done through the State Department. Attitudes have shifted following the pandemic with 9 out of 10 Republicans opposed to foreign aid through USAID. Some of the criticism is that it funds bureaucrats favorite programs. The actual impact is now uncertain in the developing of an economy. For example Sri Lanka benefits more from aid and development assistance from neighbor India than from programs of USAID as it tackles the current economic crisis following the pandemic. India pulling together the aid through IMF for Sri Lanka, and the investment in energy from India is way more important than the small USAID programs.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A great transformation is taking place for 172 million people -after the grueling experience of pandemic followed by effects of Ukraine war, and climate change- in building external resilience. The quick IMF action in Bangladesh in contrast to Sri Lanka. After taking in the shock of pandemic and the war in Ukraine Bangladesh faced large drops in remittances and in export revenues. Added to that problems in foreign exchange reserve management and exchange rate management. By getting immediate access of aid from IMF $4.7 billion and additional assistance from India Bangladesh is now in a position where in less than a year it has rebounded with current account surplus reaching $2 billion in the first half of the 2023-2024 fiscal year, as reported by Xinhua. Increasing productivity, education of labor force, increasing female participation in the workforce, social investment in economy, will give Bangladesh a chance to reach from LDC to lower middle income status by 2031.   ...