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China's dependence on an export sector that is uncertain 14% growth (EV's electronics) vs. 0.2% growth in domestic spending April 2026. Costlier energy inputs are affecting China in the way that is affecting Germany's economy in 2026. The US has increased tariffs, Germany and the EU are likely to do the same as they see their economy erode with Chinese exports in German markets replacing German manufacturing. China has set 4.5% growth target much of it from ramping up exports and depends on cheaper inputs for energy as Germany has done for economic growth. This is being gradually eroded as US/EU want to reindustrialize and make things and products realizing the errors in industrial policy of previous administrations Bush and Obama in US and Schroeder/Merkel in Germany. At the same time India wants to be a manufacturing hub like China. When that happens by 2030 China's growth will be similar to the US of 2-3% a year as exports decrease. Eastern India is the New East and South China with 700 million people for the first time in 2025-2026 under double engine governments. Double engine meaning state, local and federal governments all under the same party (the BJP National party) so that industrial policy is conducted along the lines of a Master Plan tested in western Indian states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. This has been seen before. As Japan rapid rise of the 1960's and 1970's slowed by 1980, China's rapid rise of the 1990's and 2000's slowed by 2025 and India in 2025 is picking up from China in the way China picked up from Japan. This means an industrialized US and EU, rapidly industrializing India will face a slowing China and aging China by 2030. Knowing this pattern helps US and EU leaders, Indian leaders, look at the long term in their plans, having confidence in their investments in industrial progress for the next 5 years. ...

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DJT arrives in Beijing China May 13 2026. Topics that will be discussed are - the Iran War and how to resolve it, trade with China, tariffs, and US Taiwan policy. China continues to run trillion dollar surplus in trade with the world with lower trade surplus with the US after DJT tariffs. From $295 billion in 2024 under Biden the new DJT administration with DJT, Bessent and Jamieson has lowered this to $202 billion by 2026. In that same period the world trade surplus of China has increased from $992 to $1.19 billion. It is not clear whether some of the drop in the US figures is from China sending product through channels to Mexico and Vietnam that is then shipped to the US. DJT showed results in his policies by lowering the trade imbalance by 32%, while trade imbalance with the rest of the world has worsened (increase in trade surplus of China) by 20%. What does this show? We can safely assume that excessive trade imbalances are not in either China, EU, or America's interest. China increases trade and political friction by doing so, and it leaves its own policy weak by overdependence on exports, too little effort to increase domestic consumption and living standards.  FOr the US and EU trade imbalances with China of over $1 trillion reflect misguided policy at the top by US and EU decision makers and governments. By exposing their manufacturing base they are losing valuable jobs by the millions and creating a situation where the few with good jobs in select industries live in large cities and the rest of the country in smaller towns and rural areas suffering from lack of amanufacturing base. This weakens the investment base for public services and leads to lack of investment ininfrastructure. This is called deindustrialization which the DJT and Biden administrations both fight hard to reverse for the last 10 years since the disastrous years of the Obama and Bush administrations 2000-2016. For this reason we can say a good Republican is as good as a good Democrat, a bad Republican is as bad as a bad Democrat, political labels are just that labels. The media in US and EU are on a wrong footing and still fail to cover this the way it should be covered to shake off the lethargy in public sentiment in the US so that a rapid drive to reindustrialize and build new new infrastructure on top of the old that was built after World War 1 can take place. In today's world India is stepping up with major infrastructure building just as the US and EU ramp up their rebuilding.  ...

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Thucydides, Greek historian on the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens 431 BC, cited by Xi Jinping of China during DJT visit to China, May 2026. “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?” "Thucydides Trap," is about one established power being threatened by another rising power, as Sparta felt threatened by a rising Athens in the Greek world around 431 BC, leading to a long over 30 years war.  “The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, of Taiwan, an island near China's coast where ChiangKaishek set up his government after the fall of his government in Beijing in 1949 to Communist People's Army of Mao Zedong. “If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation."  What China sees is a future of strong economic growth based on China having built its industrial strength and world trade to exceed 1.2 trillion dollars of trade surplus in 2026. Yet this is only the beginning. US and European Union, and India+Japan are three economic regions compared to the situation in Greek history. The combined three economic regions potential for scientific and industrial advances in the future till 2045 in a synergistic fashion one building on top of the other's advances, far exceed the potential of the Chinese economy and industry by itself. This is why any such conflict may over time fizzle away as three economic regions of EU, US and India advance, particularly the 1.4 billion people of India, which will see growth rates of 20% annually for 10 years to 2035 in Eastern Indian region of the size of the EU. That region extends from Lucknow and Patna to Vizag and Chennai. Another aspect of this concerns China itself which sees slowing growth of 5% in 2026. Growth could slow further as US, European Union and India/Japan push back on Chinese exports during a period of reindustrialization in US, EU, Japan and rapid industrial development in India to 2040. China's development is only midway in terms of per capita GNP which lags most of Europe and the US, Japan. Thus the main concern in China is that China will not be able top go beyond middle income country as its demographics and aging population look more like Japan's over the period 2026-2040. China needs the US EU trade and markets for it to meet the needs and aspirations of its 1.4 billon people as the other engines of development such as housing construction, infrastructure building, have lost momentum. ...

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PM of Sweden Ulf Kristersson on the Joint Statement of the Nordic nations with India. Joint Statement: 3rd India-Nordic Summit, Oslo, 19 May 2026 Published 19 May 2026 1.  Today in Oslo, the Prime Minister of India, Shri Narendra Modi, the Acting Prime Minister of Denmark, Ms. Mette Frederiksen, the Prime Minister of Norway, Mr. Jonas Gahr Støre, the Prime Minister of Finland, Mr. Petteri Orpo, the Prime Minister of Iceland Ms. Kristrún Mjöll Frostadóttir, and the Prime Minister of Sweden, Mr. Ulf Kristersson, held the 3rd India-Nordic Summit hosted by the Norwegian Prime Minister. This Summit builds upon the previous two Summits held in Copenhagen in 2022 and Stockholm in 2018. 2. The Prime Ministers noted that they are meeting at a time of global geopolitical flux and rapid economic and technological transformation and agreed on the need to deepen the partnership between India and the Nordics for mutual benefit based upon shared interests and values and to cooperate in addressing global challenges. In this context, they decided to elevate the India-Nordic relationship to a trusted Green Technology and Innovation Strategic Partnership. 3.  As leaders of vibrant democracies and large open market economies, they underscored their shared interest in fostering a robust and resilient global order based on international law that promotes peace, stability, inclusive economic growth and sustainable development.  4. They reaffirmed their commitment to upholding international law, shared values and obligations including democracy, freedom, human rights, gender equality, rule of law, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and international peace and security in accordance with international law, including the United Nations Charter. 5.  The Leaders discussed international peace and security including the conflicts in Europe and the West Asia/Middle East. 6. They discussed opportunities for collaboration in trade and investment, blue economy, circular economy, digital infrastructure, digitalisation and artificial intelligence, climate action and energy security, fighting pollution, water, research and education, talent mobility, healthcare, space & geospatial sectors and defence. UN, multilateralism and international cooperation 7.   The leaders reiterated the importance of an effective multilateral system, with the United Nations at its core. They confirmed their commitment to work towards reforming the UN, including the UN Security Council, to make it more representative, inclusive, transparent, efficient, accountable, effective and reflective of the contemporary geopolitical realities. The Nordic Prime Ministers reiterated the support of the Nordic countries for permanent membership for India in a reformed and expanded UN Security Council. The Nordic leaders welcomed India’s application to the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG), and emphasized the importance of the international multilateral export control regimes in upholding non-proliferation and international peace and security. Trade, investment and economic cooperation 8.  The leaders emphasised the importance of a continued central role for the World Trade Organization in the multilateral trading system and global trade governance. They underscored the importance of a fair, open, transparent, equitable, non-discriminatory, inclusive and rules-based multilateral trading system, with WTO at its core. 9.   They acknowledged the significant economic exchanges in the form of trade and investments between India and the Nordic countries in promoting sustainable economic growth, prosperity, circular economy, bioeconomy, sustainable development and supply chain resilience. 10. To facilitate trade and investments and contribute to the objective of sustainable development, they particularly welcomed the entry into force of the India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership agreement and the conclusion of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement. The leaders also welcomed the active business exchanges in the margins of the Summit and highlighted the need of continued business exchanges to identify opportunities. The leaders stressed that in addition to the economic benefits by enhancing market access and removing trade barriers, the India-EU FTA and India-EFTA TEPA could support economic security and resilience through diversifying critical value chains and opening new markets. They welcomed the shared objectives under TEPA that EFTA states shall aim for investment of USD 100 billion leading to creation of one million direct jobs in India. 11.   The leaders further emphasized the need of undertaking initiatives to improve connectivity between the Nordic and the Indo-Pacific regions, including in line with the continued development of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. ...

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The EU has set a goal of getting 20 million tons of grain exports out of Ukraine in 3 months using EU transport infrastructure. This is vital to feed many parts of the world. Ukraine exported 44 million tons in the 2020-2021 growing season. Russia is conducting a blockade of Odessa on the Black Sea to prevent Ukraine exports from leaving.

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Slow progress of vaccination drives in the European Union has led to rising frustration. This is leading to action from the EU. The EU and Italy have halted export of 250,000 doses of vaccine bottled at a factory in Rome, that is part of the Astra Zeneca supply chain.

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The facts about the EU- India Trade Agreement for 2 billion people Market on the European Commission Website. It will double EU exports to India by 2032 over 6 years, eliminate or cut tariffs on 90% of goods, and save EU exporters 4 billion euros in duties.

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Greg Ip says what a difference US policy under DJT has made for energy independence and for exports. US economic growth is affected only slightly as it exports oil and LNG. Forecasts by Citi revised for the US for economic growth by only 0.1% downward for the Iran War, for the European Union by 0.4%. EU spends 1-2% of GDP to get imports of LNG and oil. US gets 0.2% of GDP for the oil and LNGit exports.  The US is in a strong position with oil policies to increase production and there is also additional supplies from Venezuela that can be added to replace Persian Gulf supplies. Which is why DJT can tell the world and the Europeans, Japan and China to get their own oil and do the job of opening Hormuz because US does not get any of its oil and LNG from Hormuz straits. In 2025 EU gets LNG from Norway 89, US 81, and Russia 37 in billions of cubic meters of imports for total in 2025 of 207 down from 257 total in 2021 because of conservation. US LNG will increase as US sells more LNG to Europe in 2026 and 2027 and reduces the little it imports from Russia. EU is doing a good job of conservation that the US can adopt to export even more to India and Japan replacing some of the supplies from the Persian Gulf nations. ...

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In extended diplomacy Carney visits Beijing, China and says middle powers are seeking ways to interact and trade in a world of big power rivalry. His visit is followed by visits by UK's Starmer and Germany's Merz, and preceded by Macron. At the same time Merz visits Ahmedabad for a kite festival and signs a new trade agreement with India, followed by Leyen and Costa of the EU who sign a EU-India trade agreement for 27 countries of the European Union. All this suggests carefully planned effort in Europe to create new channels of trade and reorient existing trade relationships that will be more resilient with the US shifting to focus on Monroe Doctrine idea of the Western hemisphere as its region of influence and security. This report shows pictures of Starmer and Xi meeting at the Plough Pub in UK in 2015 and reflects on how this has changed 11 years later with China now  a dominant power with the world's 3rd largest economy and a third of world's manufacturing and logistics. How does this change the relationship with China in 2026 for UK and Canada, and the EU? At the same time Germany-India and EU-India relationship creates a 2 billion people market with capital, technology and labor potential to create the largest potential driven economic group in the world, combining EU's 20 trillion to India's $4 trillion economy and mutually complementing, which has potential to rival the US at $30 trillion by 2030 as India grows rapidly in the new EU/Germany/India market and the EU gets a new boost with the complementarity of the two regions by 2035. This suggests that something new is happening and Germany after a lot of soul searching have hit on something we should see blossom by 2030 in the way China has grown since that picture with Cameron of Xi at the Plough Pub in UK. A problem China faces as it continues to push exports is that EU/ India and US will take in less exports and there is only so much it can put in Latin American and African market, UK/Canada market leading to industries with massive oversupply. Major economic redirection may result from the Merz/Leyen/Costa visit and firming up trade agreements with India if the EU, Germany and India have the determination to seize this opportunity in the 21st Century. As Leyen said it has the potential to create a stable world with values of the Bible, the Bhagavad Gita, and Mahajima Nikaya of the Buddha supporting the industrial states that emerged from the Industrial Revolutions. ...

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India will allow automobile imports at 10% duty instead of 110%, allowing 250,000 EU automobiles into the Indian market, as part of the deal that benefits Germany. Tariff on European wines will go down from 150% to 20-40%. Duties on olive oil and processed food such as pasta and chocolates will go down to zero, which will benefit Italy, and Switzerland. A labor mobility agreement will let professional workers and seasonal workers from India into EU and EU to India. New talks will bring India into the EU's Horizon Research Programme.

It will double EU exports to India by 2032 over 6 years when it is implemented starting in 2027. An astonishing 97% of traded goods are included for cutting or eliminating tariffs. It will save EU 4 billion euros in duties, says the EU. Tariffs are cut on a vast arrayof industrial products- iron and steel (India benefits) chemicals, plastics, pharmaceuticals (India benefits) and machinery (Germany benefits).

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Orange juice from Brazil, copper from Chile, electronics and pharma from India, and aircraft from EU, are part of broad exemptions in US tariffs plans. The exemptions are designed to give flexibility to US negotiators where it helps the US economy to import these items. 

This month negotiating teams from Japan, EU, South Korea and othere countries are trying to get exemptions for other items. BMW is seeking export rebates for exports of SUV's to EU from its US factories. And VW is seeking to use investments it says it will make in the US manufacturing as a way to get exemptions in tariffs or lower tariff rate similar to the way Apple has negotiated a tariff exemption for its Chinese exports to the US by saying it will invest $100 billion in the US manufacturing. US negotiators have to get the firm guarantees that these investments are going to be made.

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Angela Merkel of Germany and other EU leaders decided to back "global supply chains" and declined to support the EU Commission in Brussels at a virtual summit attended by 27 leaders of the EU states. It was also attended briefly by Joe Biden. Ursula von Leyen said 21 million doses of vaccine had been shipped from EU to Britain, of which 1 million were from Astra Zeneca and the rest from Pfizer and other makers of vaccines. A total of 77 million doses made in the EU wer shipped to 33 countries since 1 December 2020. Governments of Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium and Sweden were not in favor of blocking shipments from the UK because of the effect on supply chains. Pfizer is strongly opposed to the move to block shipments. Merkel emphasized the need to respect the global supply chains while making efforts to ensure EU countries get a fair share of vaccine supplies. The problems of UK vs Britain on vaccine supplies comes from the yield problems at a Belgium plant of Astra Zeneca and the company's refusal to divert supplies from the UK. Of the 120 million promised only 30 million could be delivered to EU. The UK's contract with Astra Zeneca states that supplies from its plants in Oxford and Staffordshire must be delivered to Britain first. The UK is facing an acute shortage of second doses even though it has given 31 million jabs. At this time 45 out of 100 people in the UK have jabs, compared with 13 out of 100 in the EU.   ...

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China 15th FIve Year Development Plan- roadmap to 2030. Slowing growth in the economy has led to a push on exports, investing in AI, EV's, Robotics, advanced technologies.

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The European Union is drafting a ban on oil imports from Russia, says this report in the NYT. The European Union now pays Russia about $1 billion every day for oil imports from Russia. Under chancellor Merkel Germany actually increased its dependence on Russian natural gas from 36% during Russian annexation of the Crimea to 55% today. In this way creating some of the conditions that emboldened Russia into its invasion of Ukraine, creating over 4 million refugees and immense destruction. Oil revenues of this magnitude of about $1 billion a day from the European Union help finance and prolong the invasion with enormous cost of human life. The longer the war lasts it affects a grain producing region in Ukraine that would lead to world food scarcity and famine.

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EU chief Von der Leyen says- "phasing out of nuclear energy was a strategic mistake,"  at Second Nuclear Energy Conference in Paris, March 10 2026. As the war with Iran rages over nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles development in the first week of March 2026, Macron opens the Second civilian Nuclear Energy Conference in Paris. France is the only nation that gets most of its energy from nuclear reactors- 70% from 58 nuclear reactors. And $9 billion in nuclear energy exports. With renewables and hydropower France as the lowest carbon grid in the world. Leyen of the EU says "This reduction ‌in the share of nuclear was a choice, I believe that it was a strategic mistake for Europe to turn its back on a reliable, affordable source of low-emissions power." "For fossil fuels, we are completely dependent on expensive and volatile imports. They are putting us at a structural disadvantage to other regions."  ...

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Indian exports to US drop from $8.8 to $5.5 billion May to September drop of 37%. A trade agreement is likely and should be similar to Japan's or EU where with Japan it is now 15% and with EU it is 10%, both key allies of the US. India is also a key ally in Asia requiring the DJT administration -once it gets over Modi-DJT differences on the nuclear aspect of the India-Pakistan 48 hour conflict in 2025, and India reverts to getting oil and energy from non Russian sources as it did in 2019, and issues of agricultural exports to India- to drop this tariff of additional 25% for Russian oil and drop the basic tariff of 25% to 15% as the US did with Japan. At 15% Japan and India will still be able to compete with China's 47% (dropped from 57%) to export to the US.  The result can be positive for India as it improves it's cost effectiveness to export to the US and EU, with rapid investment to improve logistics, and streamlining import of technologies and machinery to rapidly cut costs of production. ...

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Three BBC correspondents on China's 2026 National People's Congress - effort to invest in childcare and elder care services to increase consumer spending. To continue in solar, robotics, AI, EV's, and exports as before. The problems of industrial overcapacity and pushing subsidized product into the US or EU that cause trade tensions and tariffs will continue.  New 301 investigations by US Trade Representative are taking place and will complete by mid-July. Germany's chancellor was in Beijing making a similar point about industrial overcapacity and German business is now facing the same threats to their business that the US has gone through. The one other way for China to grow is to increase consumer spending- hence the effort to help young people with childcare costs and retired people with elder care. The payments to seniors is low says the BBC's McDonnell who says the increase in payment to rural and non-working urban residents of $3 per month is miniscule. No details given for housing support to newly married couples. On one aspect relevant to the Iran war-China is increasing its efforts on renewable energy to reduce imports from volatile Middle East. ...

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US - EU Trade Agreement with 15% tariff on EU imports to the US and $750 billion in US exports over 3 years of LNG, oil and gas, semiconductors etc. Including military purchases. EU would invest $650 billion in the US.  Aircraft and their components, particular chemicals, semiconductor equipment, some agricultural products looked set to be exempted from the new tariffs placed by the US on EU imports into US. To even the playing field where German and Japanese cars had a free ride into the American market since 1980, 15% tariffs lower than the 24-25% proposed tariff will be place on German cars. Business in the US sees this as a least bad outcome says WSJ. Yet this ignores that the US gave special privileges to Japanese and American car makers to export into the US since 1980 with no corresponding benefit to the US in other industries or to the US auto industry. This gives the US industries and the US science and technologies opportunities to get back into the game of exporting, opportunities that the US gave to Europe and Japan since 1960. It also strengthens the US economy by helping restore the US as the industrial power it was from 1920-1980.  ...

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Not just state support for companies in solar and EV's- the weaker Chinese currency also adds to China's momentum in exports. The US and the EU are determined to avoid a repeat of previous waves of Chinese exports that decimated their industries and industrial regions. US and EU are preparing counter strategies to support their own companies and protect local jobs and lcal communities that thrive only when those jobs exist.

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Where EU gets LNG in 2024- Qatar 12% US 43% Russia 21% other 24%. EU's gas pipeline supplies increased in 2025 from Norway by 6% to 52.6%. Norway is also increasing its LNG supplies from Hammerfest. US under the Trade Agreement with EU US plans to send $750 billion in LNG exports to the EU. A Sustainability directive by EU for climate goals puts Qatar at risk of penalty of 2.43 billion euros according to DW.com. Qatar has said it may discontinue exports of LNG to EU in response and shift to Asian buyers. Since the Ukraine war and shift away from Russian gas pipeline supplies German economy Minister Habeck negotiated the deal with Qatar for LNG.

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US- China trade relations 2025 and XI's rare earth minerals export restrictions response to US tariffs. DJT resonse was 100% tariff on China from 57%. After meeting Xi in Busan, South Korea, after the APEC meetings, US settled on 10% reduction in tariffs from the 57% tariffs on Chinese products down now to 47%. The 100% tariff was withdrawn by DJT and China's Xi settled on withdrawing restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals. The fentanyl tariffs are still in place and the WSJ editorial says not much is likely to happen on fentanyl action by China to stop exports of fentanyl that reach the US through Mexico. China says it will take in soyabeans exports. US signs agreement with Australia to develop alternative supplies of rare earth minerals. The WSJ says for tariffs action to work US should not tariff allies. Yet broad tariffs action was necessary as partners Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the EU, Canada and Mexico were also nations that created an unfair trade situation for the US. The US took action on all nations that take unfair advantage of free trade concepts to benefit them which also add to the credibility of tariffs as effort to restore fairness in world trade.  ...

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China is focused on getting a trade agreement with the US to continue exporting its overcapacity in manufacturing, which cannot be absorbed in it's domestic market. The EU or the US are the only destinations, but this runs into problems as both the US and EU want China to cut production overcapacity, and will no longer take in Chinese exports that hurt manufacturing communities in EU and US over 25 years since 2000.