LyrArc Article Gist
It would take 60 days for Iran to generate $10 billion in revenues. It seeks to charge tolls for the Hormuz channel to generate $40 billon a year. The US strategy- now that US knows there is a power struggle between the- elected president Pezeshkian and the militay IRGC- is to restrict Iran from gaining the funds to fund a nuclear weapons program. The most likely and low cost option is to reinstate the naval blockade. The next action is to work with China, Japan, India and the European Union to find other sources of oil to replace the 20 million barrels lost from Homruz- by using the unused capacity of 5 million barrels a day in UAE, Saudi pipelines. China learning to do without the 4 million barrels a day it got through Hormuz, supplying India through added oil supplies from Venezuela and the US, accelerating renewable energy and EV's hybrids could generate about a third of the 20 billion barrels lost from Hormuz or 6 million barrels a day. The better management of supplies in inventories could generate the additional energy to replace 4 million barrels a day. The result would be to reduce or eliminate the need for Hormuz and reduce its impact on the world's need for oil and energy use. ...

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Hormuz channel on July 13, 2026 -Iran Memorandum with US is meaningless as IRGC military in Iran and elected Iran government are in a power struggle. Every time the elected president confirms a ceasefire and opening of Hormuz by Iran to all shipping without tolls, the IRGC makes a show of agreeing under pressure from Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt, then next day IRGC asserts that Hormuz is closed and all shipping take place on the Iranian side only with tolls. This means Iran is shutting down the Omani side of Hormuz channel which was opened by the US. This is against international law and open navigation of the seas for shipping. The result is that the US government and DJT have lost any confidence in negotiating with the IRGC who make the decisions. The US response is to restart the naval blockade, to be paid for by tolls at 20% to pay all costs of US to ensure safety of oil tankers. The news media is taking the Iranian side which is against the poor countries freely accessing energy and oil supplies at reasonable prices (Egypt, Indonesia, Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, India and China a population of close to 4 billion people). Media does this by putting titles like "Iran is playing the long game," because of the opposition to the DJT administration by Democrats. The opposition Democrats fail to address the question about Iran having a nuclear weapon and the resulting danger to the region. DJT administration response is also to find alternative supplies to Hormuz so that India, China and other countries can meet their oil needs outside of Hormuz. As shown in Lyrarc this has already take place and China, India, Japan, cutting back its fuel use after prolific use of oil, and replacing it with renewable energy, more efficient use of energy. ...

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Clause 5 paragraph of the US Iran Memorandum clearly says international laws of freedom of navigation shall be respected by all parties, and the Hormuz demined opened for traffic by Iran. IRGC would not come to the agreement without its inserting that it would work with Omani authorites  to open the Hormuz straits shipping. The WSJ sees the additions made by IRGC in the Memorandum to show the interpretation by Iran IRGC, yet freedom of navigation under international law is unequivocal and clear that no country can block a shipping channel. The US knowing that possibility existed Iran would not be opening the channel, or would disrupt the Omani route, has plan to make Hormuz not a factor in oil prices by using alternative supplies as its backup plan in coordination with China, India, Japan and other coutnries. Here is paragraph 5 of the Memorandum with Iran- "The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days." "The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf Littoral States, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz." This is not a careless error or overlooked by the US, it clearly states "international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states." Hormuz is significant only in the way oil supplies through the channel are supplied to China, India, Japan, and other countries, and in the way it sets oil prices based on supply and demand. The US goal is to create enough alternative supplies for India and Japan, and China for its part in cooperation with the US agreeing to do without the 4 million barrels a day it got through Hormuz. UAE has not used about .7 mbd and Saudis not used about 5 mbd in the past of their pipelines that are outside of Hormuz. This gives a total of of China's 4 mbd and on the demand side Saudi UAE combined 5.7 mbd for a total of 9 million mbd or 9 million barrels a day that reduces dependence on Hormuz. Even if 80% of Hormuz oil of 20 mbd is blocked again, this will mean the offset from China doing without Hormuz and the pipelines providing about half of the Hormuz supplies. Of the remaining 6 million barrels a day needed half could come from increased drilling for oil production (in Venezuela and other places) and half from conservation in the world outside of China- the US, EU, India, Africa, Latin America. With this covering 16 million barrels a day the world could still cope without 80% or most of the Hormuz supplies in the event Iran threatens to shut off Hormuz again. Even the trickle coming out of Hormuz of 4  mbd could be replaced from the petroleum reserves of the US, EU, Japan, India and other countries. In this way the US policy is to bypass Hormuz completely and use the period of the ceasefire to plan accordingly, knowing the IRGC never wanted to honor the Memorandum for opening Hormuz, it was only pressured to do so and would go back to its original intent. UAE plans new pipelines and overland routes. It would also bring down oil prices after a small surge from $70 a barrel to $80- $85 a barrel, before coming down again as additional supplies are created and demand side addressed through renewable energy and EV's. ...

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China's export dependent economy with 4% decline in fixed investment Jan-May 2026 and 27% jump in exports.1 million car exports per month in June. Exports make up 20% of China's GDP. China is challenging German companies in their home markets in Europe. Domestic sales of cars are down 16% in June. What this means is that China's growth now depends on exports alone, with construction slowdown, and weak consumer spending. How does this tie into China's posture in trade with the US? It negotiated from a position of strength on rare earths not to give in to DJT tariffs yet knows the importance of trade for the Chinese economic model, importance of US and EU markets, markets worldwide. China's strategy is to shift some of the lost US sales due to tariffs to other countries in Latin America and Asia. A top priority is to keep trade with the US and European Union on a good footing, so that its exports can be absorbed. How does it affect Hormuz? For China Hormuz as an oil source is much lower in importance and China can do without Iran, it absolutely cannot do without the US and European Union to take a big part of its exports. It also does not openly say this but it also shares concerns similar to the US, on nuclear weapons in Iran. India, Japan and the EU have similar concerns. As shown in the articles on this page China has large unused oil in reserves and coal supplies, has lower oil demand at 4% growth, and is accelerating renewable energy, so that it is now importing 8.5 million barrels a day down from 12.5 million barrels a day. By doing this China puts this oil back into the world supply leading to lower oil prices. This means the world can do without the supplies from Hormuz, keep lower oil prices, and go on as before if Hormuz remains closed. The US can focus on domestic issues and its involvement in the Middle East can be limited to naval blockade which the US Navy is capable of doing. This is good for China, good for the US, and good for the World. Local governments in China, provincial authorites, pushed growth in building road, bridges, factories during the 30 year growth phase 1990-2020. In 2026 local governments with debt loads and lack of good projects for investment are a bottleneck to growth. This is the first time fixed investment is in decline, except for the years in 1961 and in 1967. The year 1961 is a result of many mistakes made by chairman of CCP, Mao, by shifting 2 million in farm labour to work in iron foundries, and the shift from private farm plots to soviet style commune farms, coupled with floods leading to 43-46 million famine deaths (1994, Chen Yizi, top advisor to CCP General Secretary Zhao Zhiyang). 1967 is the chaotic situation of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution launched by Mao. What it shows is that the China Miracle like the Japan Miracle and the German Miracle of recovery after World War II, is based on certain conditions and will enter a phase of lower growth closer to 3% like other industrialized nations over time. India and Indonesia are larger than China and will be the next growth story, which is also shown on these pages this week, with the address to the Indonesian parliament by Modi, and Indonesian president Prabovo's saying that he has studied Modi's economic changes and is copying them as there is no copyright. ...

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Iranian response to Memorandum of Understanding shows reality of 2 factions in Iran, the IRGC military faction, and the elected president Pezeshkian plus Turkey /Pakistan/Egypt and Qatar as the second faction. With IRGC military rejecting the Memorandum on opening Hormuz and discontinuing nuclear weapons programs. This was true at the time Vance conducted negotiations and the Memorandum appears to have been accepted by IRGC only under great pressure from Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar, and the faction under Iranian elected president Pezeshkian. Where IRGC thinking could have been to give  agreement to the Memorandum that they had no intention of keeping, as its policy on nuclear weapons remains unchanged, and its goal is to use Hormuz for leverage and extend its control of Hormuz channel. The cost of sanctions and not being able to export oil, the effect on its economy, on cost of living with rampant inflation, may be of little concern to the people who run the IRGC military who suppressed all dissent and protests in 2026. Protests across different parts of society to the deteriorating economy. How could the US respond? The US used the time of the ceasefire to create a new status quo by using open navigation of the seas as the principle behind opening and protecting the Omani side of the Hormuz for oil shipment. This is a principle accepted by all countries. There is a backup plan of the US, China, India, Japan and other countries and this is to prepare rapidly to do without Hormuz so that the economies of these nations are not affected. The US also supported efforts by Saudis and Kuwait, UAE, to increase oil exports through channels outside of Hormuz, UAE's decision to increase oil supplies and lower prices by leaving OPEC, and US creating alternative supplies for India through Venezuela. Most important is China's decision that it no longer needs the 5 million barrels of oil from Hormuz for its economy to operate using alternative supplies and increasing efficient use of its oil resources. The world is also building up oil supplies and inventories so that Iran cannot threaten a cutoff from Hormuz because all nations have made other arrangements. Attacks by Iran on oil shipping on the Omani side protected by the US breaking the principle of open navigation of the seas, can then be considered Iran disrupting an open seas navigation route which it no longer is allowed to do under international law. This is something the world public opinion would support. The NYT has been critical of the DJT action in Iran, the WSJ and other media had joined in criticism. The situation in July 2026 is that the criticism of the US by NYT and other media, and from Europe and other countries in Asia will now be muted, because the US has tried all the options and is now finding ways to be able to bypass Hormuz altogether, and a backup plan or strategy to minimize the impact on oil prices. So that oil price of $70 may be kept at level around 10-20% higher not much more as Iran's military IRGC continues to disrupt the Hormuz supplies.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Iran's Assembly of Experts (clerics) acting as an arbiter as a power struggle takes place between elected president Pezeshkian and the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Assembly of Experts made up of clerics and the Ayatollah as its head shift support to one faction then to the other. This is who US is talking to and negotiating with. To negotiate with Pezeshkian even when agreement is reached the next day IRGC can come out and take action to control Hormuz by knocking out ships. A Qatari ship carrying 2 million barrrels in Hormuz was hit by IRGC when Pezeshkian signaled he had reached an agreement with the US that would release $6 of $12 billion in Iranian funds in Qatar. IRGC plan is to control Hormuz, charge tolls, and raise $40 billion a year through tolls. IRGC believes it can disrupt the narrow 15 mile channel on the Omani side in violation of international law of navigation that the US wants to keep open. For the US the question is - Can you even negotiate with the entity that is Pezeshkian and the elected government when it is in a power struggle with IRGC? Can you negotiate in the context of the burial as martyr of Iran's current religious leader Ali Khamenei? And even if you negotiate, IRGC responds to close Hormuz, US restarts bombing, where does this get the US when Hormuz remains closed. The US has we show here has only one option not stated in the Media. That is to bypass and ignore Hormuz and get alternative supplies of oil and keep naval blockade at low cost. For the US and the world to generate alternative supplies to Hormuz the US works with China, India, Japan, Indonesia and European Union, Arab states, to take the following action. Get 5-6 million of the 20 billion of Hormuz barrels as day using existing and new Saudi and UAE pipelines outside of Hormuz channel, accelerating renewable energy and EV's hybrids, China doing without the 4 million barrels a day from Hormuz by cutting its oil use through energy efficiency, alternative sources of oil from Venezuela ramp up and new oil production in the US and other places in the world, using reserves and rebuilding reserve supplies, better management of the 80-90 million barrels a day of the 108 million barrels a day the world used in 2025. All of these action are taking place in the transition to a world without Hormuz for the last 60 days. ...

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WSJ Editorial Board on the closure of Hormuz and US efforts to strike Iranian coastal missile sites to open it after Iran's IRGC rejected the terms of the Memorandum to open Hormuz. What purpose did the Memorandum serve? DJT let JD Vance come up with a negotiated settlement -accepting efforts of Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar  to mediate a way out to open Hormuz- to make some concessions such as ending Iran sanctions, and opening oil markets to Iranian oil exports, ending the naval blockade, putting nuclear weapons development for negotiations during the 90 day period after the ceasefire.  The IRGC military inside Iran accepted it under pressure from the elected president Pezeshkian and Turkey, Pakistan. Yet its approach has been to accept one day and the following day issue statements contradicting this the next day. Some of the clauses were kept deliberately vague on the insistence of IRGC or worded in a way that IRGC could point to their interpretation and reject efforts for a ceasefire  and opening Hormuz. In the light of this experience 2 conclusions were reached by the US- the IRGC makes decisions for Iran not the elected president Pezeshkian and IRGC does not want to open Hormuz except by charging tolls as away to finance its missile operations. In this kind of a situation how does the US respond effectively without getting into a land conflict that distracts US from its domestic goals of building a strong economy, cost of living action, and rebuilding US infrastructure? This Editorial says Schumer's effort to block defense bills does not serve the national interest. Schumer's point to exercise caution to focus on domestic goals of rebuilding the US economy serves the Nation well, yet continuously blocking the president to gain in the midterms is not a good strategy. Lyrarc points out that the best way is for the US to continue the naval blockade if Iran won't allow Hormuz to be opened to all ships without tolls. And step two would be to find enough alternative sources of oil to make up for the 20 million barrels from Hormuz. Some of this could come from reducing use of oil and gas which China has done by importing less oil from 12.5 million barrels a day to 8.5 million barrels a day, effectively doing without the 4 million barrels a day it got from Hormuz. By doing this the US can avoid the effort to open Hormuz through alternative sources of oil supplies,  avoid being drawn into a prolonged conflict it does not need. Achieving its objectives on nuclear and Hormuz in a different way exercizing patience and using wisdom alongside strength. That course means the US would work with the European Union, UK, China, India, oil companies and other oil producing regions to forgo Hormuz oil as Lyrarc has proposed as the most effective answer to threats about Hormuz, and continuing the naval blockade.  ...

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BBC's Mark Tullly reflects on the period of coverage from 1962-1994 of South Asia. He says of Indira Gandhi that she took the democratic process out of the Indian National Congress party, and set up her sons as future leaders that was undemocratic. Here he reflects on that period in an intervew with the BBC after he left the BBC.  He has deep connections to the Indian period after 1800 as his great grand father on his mothers side was around 1840 in a part of Uttar Pradesh where British planters had farmers plant opium that would later be bought by planters for export. This coincides with the period when Britain in Hong Kong traded in opium as part of British trading in the emerging colonial culture British Empire. There is mixed legacy for Britain in India and China. The history of the Opium Wars in the 1850's and opening up of colonial ports ended with the 1900's revolution and the emergence of the CCP in China by 1950. In India the legacy was mixed bringing together this part of Asia into a new nation and bringing parliamentary traditions of Britain that provided the basis for good governance.  Tully is a softspoken thoughtful Englishman who revolted against British classical education in his youth and studied history and religion at Cambridge, made friends with the future bishops of Canterbury and Lincoln at Cambridge. He is not the Englishman of the Empire as his fondest memories are of the servants verandahs on the bungalows of Britishers and the smoke from their quarters, and the language. So it is a thoughtful view that he gives of the undemocratic nature of Indira Gandhi and mismanagement of the economy that could have changed if India had gone in a different direction under other leaders in the the 1990's. Why is this significant? China's modernization drive started in the 1990's. India's by the undemocratic nature and mismanagement under Indira Gandhi did not start its modernization till 2010, about 20 years after China, opening up a huge gap that is only now being corrected leading to problems for world security, US security, European security and Indian security. And delaying the aspirations of development of 1.4 billion people for 2 decades. Vikshit Bharat cannot come fast enough for both Merz in Germany and Leyen at the European Union, who last week and this week visit Ahmedabad and India for the Kite festival and for Republic Day 2026. ...

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Iran's frozen assets mostly in China and India for recent purchases of oil an estimated $20 billion in China $15 billion in Iraq and $7 billion in India. A total of $56 billion in these assets are an issue being negotiated in peace talks. Iran needs the funds to stabilize its currency and tackle inflation say Iranian economic ministry officials.

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Thucydides, Greek historian on the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens 431 BC, cited by Xi Jinping of China during DJT visit to China, May 2026. “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?” "Thucydides Trap," is about one established power being threatened by another rising power, as Sparta felt threatened by a rising Athens in the Greek world around 431 BC, leading to a long over 30 years war.  “The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, of Taiwan, an island near China's coast where ChiangKaishek set up his government after the fall of his government in Beijing in 1949 to Communist People's Army of Mao Zedong. “If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation."  What China sees is a future of strong economic growth based on China having built its industrial strength and world trade to exceed 1.2 trillion dollars of trade surplus in 2026. Yet this is only the beginning. US and European Union, and India+Japan are three economic regions compared to the situation in Greek history. The combined three economic regions potential for scientific and industrial advances in the future till 2045 in a synergistic fashion one building on top of the other's advances, far exceed the potential of the Chinese economy and industry by itself. This is why any such conflict may over time fizzle away as three economic regions of EU, US and India advance, particularly the 1.4 billion people of India, which will see growth rates of 20% annually for 10 years to 2035 in Eastern Indian region of the size of the EU. That region extends from Lucknow and Patna to Vizag and Chennai. Another aspect of this concerns China itself which sees slowing growth of 5% in 2026. Growth could slow further as US, European Union and India/Japan push back on Chinese exports during a period of reindustrialization in US, EU, Japan and rapid industrial development in India to 2040. China's development is only midway in terms of per capita GNP which lags most of Europe and the US, Japan. Thus the main concern in China is that China will not be able top go beyond middle income country as its demographics and aging population look more like Japan's over the period 2026-2040. China needs the US EU trade and markets for it to meet the needs and aspirations of its 1.4 billon people as the other engines of development such as housing construction, infrastructure building, have lost momentum. ...

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British MP raises issue of Arab Gulf countries providing 37% of China's oil imports, excluding Iraq 27%, vs 11% from Iran and 20% from Russia- 2024 US EIA. Tom Tugendhat says China has to balance its interests in the region after the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, between Iran, Gulf monarchies, and Russia. China also faces a more credible choice of accelerating the development of renewable energy in the same way that India and the European Union face. US will act as a supplier of last resort  adding Venezuelan and other supplies but temporarily as the entire Middle East region poses quandaries for China, the US, and India, European Union. The quandary stems from the irreconciliable differences between religious sects in the region, post 1950 ideological and religious militancy,  in which neither China, India, the US, Russia or the European Union wants to get drawn into after 5 decades of bitter experience in the Middle East.

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In extended diplomacy Carney visits Beijing, China and says middle powers are seeking ways to interact and trade in a world of big power rivalry. His visit is followed by visits by UK's Starmer and Germany's Merz, and preceded by Macron. At the same time Merz visits Ahmedabad for a kite festival and signs a new trade agreement with India, followed by Leyen and Costa of the EU who sign a EU-India trade agreement for 27 countries of the European Union. All this suggests carefully planned effort in Europe to create new channels of trade and reorient existing trade relationships that will be more resilient with the US shifting to focus on Monroe Doctrine idea of the Western hemisphere as its region of influence and security. This report shows pictures of Starmer and Xi meeting at the Plough Pub in UK in 2015 and reflects on how this has changed 11 years later with China now  a dominant power with the world's 3rd largest economy and a third of world's manufacturing and logistics. How does this change the relationship with China in 2026 for UK and Canada, and the EU? At the same time Germany-India and EU-India relationship creates a 2 billion people market with capital, technology and labor potential to create the largest potential driven economic group in the world, combining EU's 20 trillion to India's $4 trillion economy and mutually complementing, which has potential to rival the US at $30 trillion by 2030 as India grows rapidly in the new EU/Germany/India market and the EU gets a new boost with the complementarity of the two regions by 2035. This suggests that something new is happening and Germany after a lot of soul searching have hit on something we should see blossom by 2030 in the way China has grown since that picture with Cameron of Xi at the Plough Pub in UK. A problem China faces as it continues to push exports is that EU/ India and US will take in less exports and there is only so much it can put in Latin American and African market, UK/Canada market leading to industries with massive oversupply. Major economic redirection may result from the Merz/Leyen/Costa visit and firming up trade agreements with India if the EU, Germany and India have the determination to seize this opportunity in the 21st Century. As Leyen said it has the potential to create a stable world with values of the Bible, the Bhagavad Gita, and Mahajima Nikaya of the Buddha supporting the industrial states that emerged from the Industrial Revolutions. ...

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The role of Merz and Leyen of the CDU is bigger than is grasped in the trade deal with India and the change that Germany has made in shifting the gaze and engagement of the European community towards the 1.4 billion people of India for a new start after the disappointment of the relationship with China from the Merkel years. Merkel completely failed to understand China its history, and Asia and its history. India as the homeland of Buddhism is the source of the spiritual culture of China and Japan, Korea and Vietnam. The intervening period of invasions from north in the 15th to 17th century and British rule and the European early shift to science and industry in the 18th to 20th century has acted as a hazy atmosphere that clouds many perceptions of how Indian, Chinese, and Japanese history has evolved.  For Merkel there was the additional layer of misperceptions from the period growing up the GDR, or Communist East Germany in Soviet influence. This is why Merz completely fit into the Kite festival mood and atmosphere on the banks of the Sabarmati in Ahmedabad and at the Sabarmati Ashram of Gandhi in January 2026. Leyen also of the Christian Democrats could grasp the fact that German philosopher Schlegel translated the Bhagavad Gita from Sanskrit into German soon after Charles Wilkins did this in 1724. People to people ties have great potential to develop between Europe and India now that the engagement is set for the next 20 years at every level by Leyen, Merz and Modi, so that the world is completely transformed in ways that can never be imagined today.  ...

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BJP Modi election win in West Bengal and upset by TVK party in Tamilnadu states of India are a result of existing state governments not meeting the aspirations of young people in India for jobs, lack of progress in industrialization and lack of investment in infrastructure. These are the pressing priorities in India. Whoever can deliver on modernization and industrialization, jobs and infrastructure to meet the aspirations of the Indian people is likely to prevail. This is also no different than the process underway in the US and Europe for reindustrialization and remodernization, updating infrastructure built in the 19th century, jobs and incomes. The BJP party of prime minister Modi has set the bar high for modernization of the scale of China and Japan for India, and to even surpass them.  It is definitely doable, particularly now that India has built trade links for import of new technologies with the US and the EU, and when it is already an economy the size of Germany or Japan. Most of the Opposition parties cannot believe this is possible, and most of the media that covers India has the same views. As a result the titles and the discussion in the media are like that of 15 years back when India was led by parties that lacked the will and drive for industrialization and modernization, corruption and mismanagement dissipated resources, could not create the master plan and execution needed,  and lacked the leaders at the ministerial level to accomplish this to deliver on every promise. In fact the elections of the last 2 years have created a new northeastern India - changed the map completely with the growth in a region half the size of the European Union of 300 million people that is able to grow at 20% a year for 10 years in Bihar, West Bengal, and Orissa, Assam regions, where the mighty Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers flow into the seas from the Himalayas. There is that much potential and it means India itself can grow at rates of 10% once all the conditions are right in a few years to 2047 for Vikshit Bharat, Modernized India. The world economy can also grow with such a vibrant dynamic India. ...

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At this point in May (May 22, 2026) a glimmer of hope appears for settling both the crisis in Hormuz and the Ukraine war. Pakistan, Turkey and China following DJT visit to China may be pushing Iran to lower the scale of the conflict. China's first priority was to be accepted by the US at the Beijing meeting as an equal power with the US, and keen to show its willingness to bear responsibility for peaceful resolution in conflict zones as a sign of its maturity as a world power. Much of this is not shown in the media as it is mostly done behind the scenes in communications that the media knows nothing about. Note that even in the depths of the Cold War during the Hungarian revolution of 1956 and Soviet action in Budapest, the US and the Soviets when their economies were not intertwined as the US and China are today, were still talking to each other to limit the conflicts to low level conflict. Hong Kong takeover, China's actions near Taiwan, China's presence in Latin America, Chinese cooperation with Iran, and Russia on Ukraine, China's economic competition in rare earths, are relatively smaller levels of friction considering 1950's Soviet's and the US. At the same time China and the Us are aware of a new bloc emerging in Oslo in May, where India is merging its economy with the Nordic economies of Sweden, Denmark and Norway, and of the European Union and Germany, creating a new bloc of 2 billion people that can only grow rapidly with India's potential to exceed growth rates of 20% in the 600 million Eastern region for a decade. EU would make the shift to strategic partnership with India displacing the vital role the European Union has played in China's growth and economy. This would create new pressures for Russian president Putin to decide it is time to listen to a friend India and de-escalate lower the level of conflict with an initial peace deal that would lead to more talks on a final settlement. Because Russia would have a harder time tackling both India and Germany at the same time. NYT shows on the same day May 22 a report on Russia and a report by the Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Sonegard that say the elites in Russia and Putin were by January 2026 having very serious discussion to change the administration, bring Igor Sechin as negotiaor to end the Ukraine conflict before serious, possibly irreversible damage, to the Russian economy. Sweden's Sonegard says that between 2020 and 2024 Russian economy declined by 8%, not grew by 13% as official figures show, inflation is much higher than 5% as official figures show, and credit is tightening, bankruptcies expected, growth even with oil prices up down to 0.4% for 2026. During 20 years running Russia Putin's No. 1 priority, his life's mission was to restore, then exceed by a large margin the living standards of the Russian people. Having at such great cost accomplished the goal of gaining recognition as a Northern Power in Europe, having gained much of Russian speaking eastern Ukraine, Putin could wisely with self respect wind down Ukraine conflict for good. The US gains something similar to Northern Power status for Russia in its recommitment to the Monroe Doctrine, with Russia withdrawing from any involvement- and China tacitly doing the same-  in the western hemisphere. With that the US can tackle its own losses that match Russian losses in lives- loss of more American lives than in the Korean and Vietnam and WWI combined to drug smuggling from Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, and restoring rule of law in Cuba, Venezuela, and through drug cartel free Mexico good governance in Mexico.  ...

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Khamanei as leader of post revolution Iran set up Iranian supported military organizations in neighboring countries such as in Lebanon (Hezbollah), in Iraq, and in Syria, in Yemen (Houthis), over two decades, but failed to make the gains that Asian nations in that period made by investing entirely every dollar in the homeland economy of Iran. By comparing with Asian nations such as South Korea/Japan/Taiwan/China and now India/Vietnam the entire region from Iran and Afghanistan, Pakistan, Persian Gulf, Egypt can be seen as having lost some vital decades of the early twenty first century, and the scale of the difference is nothing short of staggering.  China after suffering invasion from Britain and then Japan, after civil wars and the Korean War, after going through this for two centuries sought peaceful development in 1990-2025, working with Japan and Britain countries that caused so much suffering yet China sough rapprochement, patiently with humility, with incredible results.  Gandhi also sought rapprochement with Britain through the British Commonwealth and cherished institutions of parliament and science learned and gathered from Britain. This was woefully missing in West Asia. When considering the access to capital in fossil fuel sales, the region of West Asia around Egypt may be seen as having recorded the largest wasted capital in wars in world history in the period 1920 -2047 (with only 20 years left to 2047),  by which time India, China, Europe and the US will have shifted from fossil to solar nuclear and renewables and fossil will be no longer generating revenue flows. Very little time is left as development will be that much harder by 2047 without the capital and result being one of being left behind in this new world that is facing us all.  ...

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West Bengal elections in April-May 2026- the elections come after Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal, nearby countries, all changed governments following protests about corrupt governance, mismanangement of the economy. Inside India there is a profound change that is not even covered in the  established media such as the BBC and DW.com. The states of Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar, in the northeastern part of India had landslides in voting for the ruling BJP party and NDA alliance for Clean government and Modernization of the economy. A similar vote took place also with a landslide for Clean Governance and Modernization in the state of Maharashtra in the western part of India with the commercial hub of Mumbai (Bombay). In the southern part of India in Kerala, the capital city local government in Thiruvananthapuram has also shifted to this Clean Governance and Modernization under the BJP government that governs at the federal level in New Delhi. India is like China and Japan before it, going through massive change to modernize the country with new infrastructure building and rapid development including investments in hospitals, universities and airports, trade logistics, factories for industrial production. The magnitude of the change is reflected inthe population of most of these states being close to 100 million in each state West Bengal(105 million), Maharashtra(130 million), Bihar (133 million), almost the whole population of the US in just 3 of the many states- witnessing huge changes that could mean 20-25% growth rate a year n the next couple of years to 2030 doubling their GDP. ...

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India takes on the G20 presidency on December 1, 2023. Modi's phrase "this is not an era of war" becomes the classic part of India's vision for G20, that the next generation will miss out on development if conflict takes the place of cooperation. India stands firm on this point at the G20 and it is accepted by world leaders at the summit in Indonesia and makes it to the joint declaration as a key point. Modi also extended his hand to China's Xi Jinping showing where India stands. India's connections to Indonesia from ancient times, from the Buddhist and Hindu periods of Indian civilization, the connections to Hanuman that extend to Indonesia, were mentioned by Mr. Modi as he took on the role held by Mr. Widodo of Indonesia. India offers a new path forward and a lifestyle suited to the period of tackling climate change through its ancient Yogic civilization, Mr. Modi said.

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Borg Brende, a former foreign minister of Norway, resigns from leading Davos Economic Forum over Epstein connections- astonishingly he interviewed Merz other leaders on Davos Forum broadcasts. This is one more reason that Davos or Switzerland is not where one should look to or for a real understanding of what is happening in the world that extends to places that have little in common with Switzerland, and look very different, from Japan to India and China, from Spain to Italy, and from Canada and the US to Britain and Australia, from Brazil to Chile and Argentina. So many other forums exist and so much happens there, there is also the G-20 and other world gatherings, and meetings of regional leaders where so much more happens.

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The difficulties posed by the absence of Xi Jinping at New Delhi G20 Summit are discussed here in the WSJ. Today September 9 the G20 leaders from 20 nations meet, absent will be Mexico's Obrador, China's Xi, and Russia's Putin. China's premier will attend the meeting. China's Xi met with India's Modi at the BRICS meeting in Johannesburg, last month. China's premier is a close associate of Xi's and his chief of staff for decades, so that any suggestion that Xi is reducing contact with other world leaders in 2023 is incorrect. Xi will meet Biden at the APEC meeting US is hosting San Francisco Nov. 12-18 that will focus on Asia Pacific nations.

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20 million barrels a day  of oil flow through Straits of Hormuz. 2.6 million barrels a day by pipelines to Oman. 70% of it going to Asia- China, India, Japan, South Korea. Iranian exports go through these Straits also making it difficult for Iran to generate oil revenue if the Straits are closed to shipping. Would Iran risk closing the Straits and what would it take to open the Straits? The answers are given in the adjoining article by Wald in The Atlantic Council publication. It says even if Iranian waters are closed in the Straits of Hormuz oil can still flow through the longer route in UAE waters. Wald says the bigger risk is for Suez and Red Sea shipping which is restricted by the Houthi rebels supported by Iran, with the US Navy operating in that area to keep shipping lanes open.

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S. Jaishankar, Indian Foreign Minister speaks at the University of Delhi on his chapter in the new book Modi@20 Dreams meet Delivery. He also discusses the war in Ukraine, the Indian view on people and shortages created by the war of energy and food, and India's approach to Pakistan and China.

 

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US naval blockade of Iran in Arabian Sea starts April 13 2026. US destroyed Iran's larger ships 158 of them, yet Iran also has a fleet of smaller attack boats which it plans to use in Hormuz. These are harder to detect and can be hidden in coves along the Iranian coast and used against ships. The US with its naval blockade is now prepared to do what it has done also in Venezuela, stop and interdict fast drug boats on the Venezuelan side in the Atlantic ocean. By blockading Venezuela in the ocean US is using its strengths, and stopping drug boats its ability to pinpoint traffic on the ocean. Similar capabilities are well suited to Arabian Sea and Red Sea on the open oceans and away from narrow Hormuz playing to US strengths and capabilities. Aircraft carriers and destroyers and the US Air Force is in a position to do what it does best control open seas like the British did in their heyday of the Royal Navy for most of 1750-1920. This avoids options of Hormuz itself with its narrow 15 mile gap of water between Oman and Iran too close to mountainous terrain on either side, and of the Kharg Island option which would require special forces to be backed up with more ground forces. This is the most viable option and the interlude of couple of weeks has given the president an opportunity to make a better choice for positioning the US forces where the US has its strongest points. What is lacking is the individual powers of Britain and France whose leaders Starmer and Macron have popularity below 20%. Yet the US is better off making good choices and not having these nations alongside. The posturing by European nations is limited to France and UK, as Germany and Italy are in sync with the US position. Much of the media operates as if the goal of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to the Middle East is not important for long term peace for nations such as China and India with about 3 billion people and the billions of people of Asia, Latin America and Africa. For the first time in 400 years since 1600 as Asian civilizations began a long decline China and India have emerged in 2000-2030 into the kind of modern economies and societies that exist in Europe and the US. The last thing they need is the risk of destroying the Modern World with nuclear proliferation when it took centuries to get to the right opportunity after 1950 to modernize China and India. Xi's and Modi's generation are the first to experience modernization in Asia after Japan's experience. ...

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DJT arrives in Beijing China May 13 2026. Topics that will be discussed are - the Iran War and how to resolve it, trade with China, tariffs, and US Taiwan policy. China continues to run trillion dollar surplus in trade with the world with lower trade surplus with the US after DJT tariffs. From $295 billion in 2024 under Biden the new DJT administration with DJT, Bessent and Jamieson has lowered this to $202 billion by 2026. In that same period the world trade surplus of China has increased from $992 to $1.19 billion. It is not clear whether some of the drop in the US figures is from China sending product through channels to Mexico and Vietnam that is then shipped to the US. DJT showed results in his policies by lowering the trade imbalance by 32%, while trade imbalance with the rest of the world has worsened (increase in trade surplus of China) by 20%. What does this show? We can safely assume that excessive trade imbalances are not in either China, EU, or America's interest. China increases trade and political friction by doing so, and it leaves its own policy weak by overdependence on exports, too little effort to increase domestic consumption and living standards.  FOr the US and EU trade imbalances with China of over $1 trillion reflect misguided policy at the top by US and EU decision makers and governments. By exposing their manufacturing base they are losing valuable jobs by the millions and creating a situation where the few with good jobs in select industries live in large cities and the rest of the country in smaller towns and rural areas suffering from lack of amanufacturing base. This weakens the investment base for public services and leads to lack of investment ininfrastructure. This is called deindustrialization which the DJT and Biden administrations both fight hard to reverse for the last 10 years since the disastrous years of the Obama and Bush administrations 2000-2016. For this reason we can say a good Republican is as good as a good Democrat, a bad Republican is as bad as a bad Democrat, political labels are just that labels. The media in US and EU are on a wrong footing and still fail to cover this the way it should be covered to shake off the lethargy in public sentiment in the US so that a rapid drive to reindustrialize and build new new infrastructure on top of the old that was built after World War 1 can take place. In today's world India is stepping up with major infrastructure building just as the US and EU ramp up their rebuilding.  ...

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US DJT administration using Section 301 creates the tariffs the US Supreme Court struck down- the EU, Mexico, Canada at 10%, Japan,, India China at 12.5%- June 2 2026. These countries are not doing enough to control the importation of products made with forced labour. This only goes to show what was said at that time and which the SCOTUS itself said the DJT administration could do, find other laws by which the same tariffs could be imposed. By the time the US Supreme Court reviewed the case it was already clear that all these countries had accepted DJT tariffs, and most had negotiated fair deals with the US including making up for past abuses by these countries of the international trading system. The US Supreme Court its shortsightedness ignored this or did not quite grasp this as Justices legal knowledge of facts does not mean grasp of the facts of commerce, trade and business and the history underlying it. Jamieson Greer interviewed at the Council of Foreign Relations this week and Robert Lighhizer in Foreign Affairs (covered and summarized on these Lyrarc pages this week as found rarely in other places) have documented these abuses in detail leading to the US losing $20 trillion in wealth shifted to these countries and its manufacturing dependent communities devastated by loss of over 5 million jobs through the shortsightedness of Bush/Obama adminstrations who let this happen, and these countries that took advantage with reckless disregard for these communities in the US, on a scale unknown in history.  ...