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Labour Party MP's are pushing for a confirmatory second referendum on Brexit. 203 Labour Party MP's including 110 MP's from constituencies that voted Leave in the referendum are supporting the call for second referendum. They are asking the Labour Party executive committee to use the European elections to present Labour's view that a second referendum was the way out of the crisis.

The letter from Labour MP's in this move says- "The public wants Brexit to be over, They are looking to the Labour Party to resolve this Brexit crisis.  The way to resolve this crisis is in a confirmatory ballot with the facts of the deal before the British people."

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Katya Adler, Europe Editor of the BBC, points out the change in Germany as AKK, Anne Margaret Kampbrauer, the new leader of the ruling CDU party, brings a change of tone in its outreach to Britain. AKK is slated to be the next chancellor. Her vision was expressed in a letter to The Times saying with other Germans that her wish was for Britain to remain in the EUroepan Union, that she was asking Britain to reconsider. She also supports a second referendum on Brexit.    There is also anxiety in Germany about the effects of no-deal Brexit taking out 0.5% of German GDP at a time when Germany's economy is struggling in 2019. About 100,000 job loss is expected from no-deal Brexit in Germany. As Germany's tone is changing, AKK offers a new face in German relations with Britain that looks towards building a better relationship with Britain. Could this change minds in Britain as a new mood takes place in Germany, and in some ways in France with the emergence of populists in recent years calling for France to leave the EU. AKK tell BBC that Brexit has been a strain for all of us, that in some ways it has paralyzed us. She tells the BBC's Adler that anything that keeps Britain in the EU is something that would make her personally very happy. Rarely have German leaders or public expressed it in this way. Compared to the indifference of the past Germans and Britons having second thoughts offer some more light to the issues of Germany and Britain at a more personal level. ...

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Fears that opinions on both sides of Brexit, the Remain and the Leave sides are so deep rooted that informed thinking and facts won't sway either side- not affected by prediction about the economy that it is and will be making Britons poorer coming from experts and the Bank of England.

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The question what does the Remain Campaign do to tackle Leave's message of "Tell them again," is essential for the second referendum on Brexit to lead to a way out of the endless wrangling. The Times looks at this and comes up with the message - "Tell it to Stop" to address the growing fatigue with endless infighting in the Conservative Party and in Britain of some Leave voters. Many Leave voters now say they know better. The Conservative Party is more divided on the issue than ever and the infighting is only getting worse, turning off some Leave voters.  At the same time The Times suggests hiring some disenchanted Leave supporters to the Remain campaign, and moving it out of Remain supporting London. New connection has to be made with Leave voters concerns about unrestricted immigration into Britain. Voters who are concerned about Britain's place in the world, and any disconnect with EU leaders in France and Germany should also be addressed in a way that sends a positive image. A new face in Germany with AKK, Kramp-Karrenbauer as chancellor, would also help as the migration issue is made less toxic and a new framework of international relations is emphasized that reestablishes Britain's place in the world.  Remain has to have a strong message to counter "Tell them Again" to offer a way out of a mind boggling mess. This would include the ten or more years Britain would have to work its way through in negotiations related to complex issues, to make Brexit work, by which time much of the world will have moved on. ...

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British Labour party leader says any Brexit deal should be put to a referendum. Earlier many Labour party members supported a second referendum with Mr. Corbyn yet to make a clear stand. During the local elections and the elections to European parliament the Labour party had losses to parties that favored canceling Brexit, including the Liberal Democrats. Corbyn said: "Let the people decide the country's future, either in a general election or through a public vote on any Brexit deal agreed by Parliament." He made these remarks ahead of a meeting with the prime minister of Ireland.  A poll conducted by Panelbase shows  a second referendum on Brexit would get 52% for Remain in the EU and 45% for Leave the EU compared to 52% for Leave and 48% voting Remain in the 2016 referendum. Parliament has to vote for a second referendum for it to take place. The Liberal Democrats made large gains in the recent European elections on the mandate to hold a second referendum, including in Mr. Corbyn's North London area.  If Mr. Boris Johnson succeeds Theresa May as prime minister the Conservative Party faces even more hurdles. European Union is even less likely to negotiate a deal with Mr. Johnson. A withdrawal from the EU without a negotiated agreement favored by Mr. Johnson is unlikely to get support in parliament as it has repeatedly blocked such a move. The alternative is fresh elections not favored by Conservative Party as it is losing credibility, or a second referendum. Alternative also is fresh elections followed by a second referendum by the winning party.   ...

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As the British parliament prepares to vote on Brexit deal put forward by prime minister Theresa May, Joanna Sugden summarizes what is expected as the next step if parliament rejects it.  Why are a faction Conservative members opposed to it? There is the Irish backstop which they oppose. Keeping open the border between the two Irelands- Northern Ireland as part of Britain and Ireland as a EU country is important to preserve peace achieved through the Good Friday Agreement between the Catholic and Protestant communities.May wants to keep the border open. Far right Conservatives see this as keeping Britain connected to the EU in some way which they oppose. They stubbornly hold onto this view. Add to this the opposition from the Remain campaign which sees leaving the EU as bad for Britain's economic future. Some Leave supporters now see the dangers of Brexit, especially leaving with no deal made with the EU. Most of the Labour Party members fall into this group. What happens if parliament rejects May's deal by a small margin? The deal would be renegotiated with the EU to tweak it for more support. What happens if parliament rejects it with a huge margin? This would result in several options. May could call a general election. Britain could have a second referendum on Brexit. Or in a chaotic situation Britain could leave the European Union without a deal altogether, something everyone wants to avoid because of the disruptions it would cause. May is using this risk as  a way to persuade reluctant MP's but it may not work.     ...

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The European Union would accept extension of the deadline on Brexit of March 29, and a second referendum could take place. Theresa May could go over the heads of her squabbling MP's and call a second referendum or a general election, says this report in The Guardian. 

A British request for extension of the deadline is seen as inevitable because it is impossible to pass the necessary pre-Brexit legislation before March 29. Conditions could include a second referendum and allowing the UK government to appoint national parliamentarians for the EU parliament as EU elections are in late May 2019. Because there is no majority for a second referendum just yet, and because the only way to get support in parliament is to have in place the customs union rejected by far right Conservative MP's, extending the date is the only viable option.

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This article in The Times says Britain is now on the path to slow decline similar to the situation in the 1970's with the Brexit situation- with a deal or without a deal. Of the options now open he favors a second referendum and supports Remain. 

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The Economist magazine presents the case for a second referendum on Brexit, because of the bad choices facing the UK once parliament rejects the current EU agreement negotiated by prime minister Theresa May. No brexit deal will be bad for the UK, the prospect of new elections remains. 

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The Labour Party in Britain pulls the plug on further talks with the ruling Conservative government of Theresa May. No agreement could be reached on whether a customs union should be forged with the EU after Brexit, or on whether there should be a second referendum on Brexit as most Labour Party members want. Mrs. May has struggled to get her agreement negotiated with the EU passed in British parliament after trying several times, leading to most observers calling it a huge mess.

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A government motion to delay Brexit for at least 3 months passed the House of Commons by 412 votes to 202. The large majority voting for an extension shows overwhelming support across all parties for more time to resolve the issue of European Union membership. Opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn called for a second Brexit referendum, saying the call was for "a public vote, not as political point scoring but as a realistic option to break the deadlock." If there is no agreement by June 30, a longer extension of 12 months could follow. 

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The director of Vote Leave on Brexit referendum Dominic Cummings says Brexit could be a mistake for Britain. Asked if he thinks differently now, he says in a Twitter exchange cited in Britain's Guardian newspaper- "Lots. I said before REF was a dumb idea, other things shdve been tried 1st." Others are having second thoughts about the referendum, as shown here.

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A look at the role that David Cameron played in the Brexit vote. Cameron did this by promising to hold a referendum to assuage hard line Tories within his Conservative Party in Britain who feared that the right wing Independence Party of Nigel Farage would cut into the Tory vote and hand the 2015 election over to the Labour Party. Cameron made the pledge in 2013. The Brexit vote referendum happened in June 2016 with a slight margin for the "Leave" vote as voters shifted to an anti-establishment vote, and a wave of immigration from Africa and Arab countries in conflicts into Europe created fears of uncontrolled immigration. Both were factors that had little to do with Britain's place in Europe over decades in post war Europe, and not permanent shifts in sentiment. Cameron agreed because he thought the would lead to a result favoring the Remain Vote to stay in the European Union. Cameron badly miscalculated leading to the mess Britain is in today with no clear path forward and negative effects on the economy of Britain. The Labour Party now favors a second referendum as voter sentiment again shifts following the failure of the Theresa May Conservative government to lead in the way forward, and splits in the Conservative Party. Immigration from Arab countries and Africa is now restricted and down to a small trickle. The problems generated by Brexit for the economy, Northern Ireland, business uncertainty, and second thoughts among pro-Brexit supporters, are leading to a rethink of the course set by the referendum based on a temporary shift in sentiment. ...

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Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn is for negotiating a Brexit deal that protects workers interests. Most of the Labour party supporters and the rest of the leadership is for Remain and a second referendum. Corbyn's position could help Labour in some ways as it brings support from some Leave voters who are unhappy with the way the Conservative party has handled it. Corbyn's manner of straddling between his party's position and his own could help the Labour party in the election because of is unrelenting focus on working class interests and the Brexit mess created by the Conservative party's Cameron and Johnson. 

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Boris Johnson leads a new British government that is composed mostly of ministers who want to see Brexit happen, and giving the positions of Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary to persons who do not care what happens as long as Britain leaves the European Union. Johnson's date is October 31st for leaving the EU. Sajid Javid, a former Deutsche Bank AG executive is the new chancellor of the exchequer. Priti Patel is new Home Secretary. Dominic Raab a former lawyer who has called for parliament to be suspended if need be so that Brexit can be pushed through is the new Foreign Secretary. Dominic Cummings who headed the Leave campaign for the Brexit referendum in 2016 is the new adviser at 10 Downing Street. Johnson's strategy is to pack the cabinet with people loyal to his vision of leaving the EU October 31st regardless of what the EU does.  The EU has not changed its position and is even less likely to consider any new Irish border proposals. Three top ministers are opposed to Mr. Johnson's views and resigned. Treasury chief Philip Hammond, Deputy primeminister David Lidington, Justice Secretary David Gauke, all resigned in opposition to Mr. Johnson simply pulling Britain out of the EU. Johnson once said all he feared from Britain abruptly leaving the EU was a shortage of Mars bars. During the election in the Conservative party Mr. Johnson was mostly quiet and avoided any gaffes to sound statesman like, yet as the process unfolds Mr. Johnson is likely to face the same problems faced by his predecessor Mrs. May. Added to this is the new opposition of moderates like Mr. Hammond and Gauke in the Conservative party that could topple the government and lead to a general election with just three vote swing in the other direction doing this. Mr. Johnson has prepared for this by having Mr. Cummings as a top adviser in the event he faces a general election. Meantime the Labour party initially not favoring a second referendum with Mr. Corbyn's ambiguous views on Brexit, as shifted gradually to the leadership and the rank and file all favoring a second referendum and for Remain. As Greg Ip has pointed out in the WSJ this week the conditions have changed with protectionism, nationalism and hostility to globalization, and president Trump not planning concessions of any sort even for the UK in trade negotiations. This means to low productivity of less than 1% to support stifled wages, one would have to add a 3.5% hit to GDP from a no deal Brexit such as Mr. Johnson approves according to the IMF. With the migration issue not what it was three years ago and reduced to a trickle this new situation must be on the minds of Mr. Corbyn, Labour and Conservative moderates. ...

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As part of the European Union Brtiain could not shape its own trade deals since the 1970's. The current Brexit standoff leaves little option of changing this. The new Department of International Trade is unlikely to accomplish much even with 400 staffers and a new trade negotiator hired from New Zealand. Britain is likely to remain in the EU trading bloc customs area for many years under the standoff with EU. Countries will wait till Britain finalizes its trade deal with the EU under Brexit. It took Canada 7 years to achieve a trade deal with EU. 

Brexit uncertaintly, split in Conservative Party and Labour Party's agreeing to a second referendum on Brexit mean little progress on trade deals for Britain.

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Rachel Sylvester in The Times points out that the Labour Party leadership has no incentive to support prime minister Theresa May in negotiations against the wishes of the majority of its voters, MP's and its own members. Mr. Corbyn is not likely to support May's proposals for a temporary customs union, as that concession means little, coming without support from May's own Conservative party. She says the only way out now is a confirmatory second referendum.

In the local elections the parties that did well are the Liberals and the Greens, who are on the Remain side. The strident pro Brexit side drew votes from the Conservatives. 

 

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DW.com reports there is a state of uncertainty about Brexit, when it will happen, whether it will even be stalled till the next British elections in 2020. According to British newspapers the British prime minister Theresa May could wait until October 2017 before requesting exit from the European Union. There is a chaotic situation in the British government on Brexit, according to the Sunday Times. First it appeared that it would be the end of 2016 before Britian invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, initiating Britain's exit from the EU. Now it looks like the decision is put off indefinitely. The latest economic numbers from the Bank of England do not offer encouragement, showing a loss of 1% of Britain's GDP each year for the next 3 years, even after the stimulus action by the central bank. British people might just have time to reflect on this by October 2017 after elections in Germany and France, the next date that is cited for invoking Article 50 to start Brexit. German EU lawkmaker Elmar Brok has doubts. He says Britain is'nt legally bound to take action on the Brexit vote. Theresa May, the British prime minister, is committed to the union with Scotland and Northern Ireland, and it means a lot to her. Invoking Article 50 would mean Scotland's SNP would move forward with a second independence referendum. In Northern Ireland there is a first lawsuit against Brexit.  ...

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British prime minister May puts her leadership on the line as she puts forward a Brexit deal to a divided cabinet. The deal keeps Britain in the customs union of the European Union and continues Britain's connections with the EU in other areas. It is opposed by some members of her cabinet. Transport minister Jo Johnson resigned calling for a second referendum. Pro Brexiters oppose the deal as it continues Britain's membership in the customs union.

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A tentative Brexit deal with the EU is reached but it is not clear that it can win support of the Cabinet of prime minister Theresa May, even before it has any chance in the British parliament. March 29, 2018 is the 2 year period for negotiations to arrive at a deal with the EU. The pro-EU transport minister Jo Johnson resigned and called for a second referendum, saying that the decision in the first referendum to leave the EU was made because false prospects had been presented by the Leave EU campaign. 

Because of the issue of Northern Ireland the U.K would remain indefinitely in the customs union, and this is opposed by the Leave EU supporters in the Conservative party government of prime minister May.

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Three members of parliament from Britain's Conservative Party who backed a second referendum on Brexit to cancel Britain's exit from the European Union left the party to join eight members of the Labour Party who left the Labour party earlier. They formed a new group in parliament called the Independent Group. This narrows Theresa May's majority in parliament to 8 members and increases chances for a new election. Several members of May's cabinet are threatening to quit if Britain leaves the UK without a deal.

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DW.com's Barbara Wesel describes the chaos in the Conservative Party and the British prime minister Theresa May's stubborn pursuit of Brexit. Speaking in the House of Commons Theresa May showed no flexibility to reconsider her decision to present a 558 page Brexit document detailing the negotiated agreement to parliament for a vote, even though it lacks the support of the Labour Party and prominent Conservatives in her government. Two Brexit Secretaries have resigned. The Transport minister resigned calling for a second referendum on Brexit. May continues to stick to her basic argument that she is following the wishes of the British people given in the first referendum. Even though she is Conservative MP for Maidenhead supporting Remain, and campaigned to stay in the European Union. Wesel says May has proved once again that she has an unrelenting stubbornness. Lacking even the ability to take into account the variety of opinions carefully presented in parliament from different angles by MP's. Once May has latched on to an idea there is no way she can be drawn off her course, and she has continued saying it is in "the national interest" at every turn without defining this in the particular context. The session in the House of Commons clearly showed Brexit's flaws, as in reality the Conservatives themselves have serious misgivings about the far right Brexiters push for separation without clear understanding of where this takes Britain and the British economy. The Labour Party sees this as an opportunity for a change in government. ...

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The Syrian war started with Arab Spring in 2011 and a popular uprising against the rule by a Alawite minority that came to power in a coup staged by the elder Assad in 1970, says this report on the civil war in Syria. The war dragged out over a decade with the northwest in the control of Kurds, and groups backed by Turkey. Groups backed by Turkey which want to restore Syria to its national origins before the current regime took Homs, Aleppo and Damascus in a week as Iran and Russia withdrew from the country following the war in Ukraine and the Israel conflict with Iran. The US has only a small presence in the country to protect against terrorist groups. One of the effects of the conflict is the flow of migrants to Europe through Hungary into Austria and into Germany during the Merkel years. The opposition to migration that led to the CDU's decline in popularity and to Brexit in Britain started with this flow of migration from North Africa and the Middle East conflicts emerging out of the Arab Spring. In Britain the migration was also from Poland and countries in Eastern Europe.  This led to Reform UK and the Brexit referendum. In the US it led to the Border becoming a major issue in 2016 with migrant surge from Mexico in the last years of Obama's second term.  The collapse of the Venezuelan economy, economic troubles in central America led to another surge in migration in 2021-2023 from these countries making the Border a major issue in the US in 2024, and giving DJT a second term in office in 2025.   ...

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Britain's prime minister survives a vote in parliament called by the camp in her part that opposes a hard Brexit that calls for Britain severing connections with the EU. After she caved in to some demands from the camp that supports a hard Brexit on the issue of EU customs union, others with different views in her party called for a vote in parliament through an amendment. Theresa May survived this vote by just 6 votes following a vote a few days before called by the Brexit hard liner camp in her party which she survived. Britain's electoral Commission ruled that the Vote Leave campaign had violated the law by exceeding the spending limit of 7 million pounds by funnelling 675,000 pounds to BeLeave a pro Brexit youth group. There is now no certainty that a Brexit deal can make it through parliament if it is reached with the EU. A fresh election, or a second referendum on Brexit or terms of Brexit are likely if May's government collapses in 2018.  ...