LyrArc Article Gist
Iran wants to suspend the Oman US route in Hormuz channel to control navigation- the US wants to keep it open for open seas navigation July 7 2026. 30-50 ships make it through Hormuz. US revokes Iran's oil shipment out of Hormuz as a result, and makes strikes on Iranian  missile launching facilities used to disrupt open seas navigation on the Omani side protected by the US. US tries to set back channels to IRGC military that controls Iran, but IRGC does not carry out regular ongoing talks, talking only at the pressure of the president of Iran working with Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar to convince IRGC authorites. China has reduced its need for the barrels coming out of Hormuz, may not go back to getting Hormuz barrels. UAE has found alternative routes to ship and increased supplies, Saudis doing the same. India and Japan looking for alternative sources of oil including US and Venezuelan supplies. Most of the buyers of Hormuz oil reluctant to go back to getting Hormuz barrels. In this sense the situation has changed, from when the war began. Oil prices could rise from $70 to $76 , and a bit more, but the old situation of Iran threatening oil supplies of the poorer developing countries of the world including China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, most of Asia and Latin America, African countries, countries that cannot afford oil prices of $100 is something the world does not need. And the tide is shifting to alternative supplies, conservation that adds enough barrels of oil as China and India, Japan, Germany, are doing, and the US also to some extent. By 2027 alternative supplies will have increased to pull the world out of this place called Hormuz, to where it becomes an insignificant source of unreliable supplies. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Fentanyl is a danger. There is also a bigger danger in the form of synthetic drugs that are the new and greatest danger in 2026 and beyond, which all countries need to be aware of and for which prepare an effective response.

LyrArc Article Gist
Hormuz channel on July 13, 2026 -Iran Memorandum with US is meaningless as IRGC military in Iran and elected Iran government are in a power struggle. Every time the elected president confirms a ceasefire and opening of Hormuz by Iran to all shipping without tolls, the IRGC makes a show of agreeing under pressure from Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt, then next day IRGC asserts that Hormuz is closed and all shipping take place on the Iranian side only with tolls. This means Iran is shutting down the Omani side of Hormuz channel which was opened by the US. This is against international law and open navigation of the seas for shipping. The result is that the US government and DJT have lost any confidence in negotiating with the IRGC who make the decisions. The US response is to restart the naval blockade, to be paid for by tolls at 20% to pay all costs of US to ensure safety of oil tankers. The news media is taking the Iranian side which is against the poor countries freely accessing energy and oil supplies at reasonable prices (Egypt, Indonesia, Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, India and China a population of close to 4 billion people). Media does this by putting titles like "Iran is playing the long game," because of the opposition to the DJT administration by Democrats. The opposition Democrats fail to address the question about Iran having a nuclear weapon and the resulting danger to the region. DJT administration response is also to find alternative supplies to Hormuz so that India, China and other countries can meet their oil needs outside of Hormuz. As shown in Lyrarc this has already take place and China, India, Japan, cutting back its fuel use after prolific use of oil, and replacing it with renewable energy, more efficient use of energy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Vice President Vance's attempted thaw in relations with Iran (the Memorandum) and the Iranian response in missile strikes to interrupt open navigation in Hormuz on Omani side route breaking ceasefire happens on July 8, 2026. Early on in the US strikes the focus was on Iranian underground nuclear sites with preparations for nuclear weapons. When Iran shut down the Hormuz channel to navigation the US extended this to a naval blockade. As the US bombing of military targets in Iran continued in May and June the WSJ and other media were critical of the US. DJT turned to JD Vance to get the Iranians to negotiate a ceasfire with a Memorandum of points they agreed to included a plan to have talks on nuclear issue, open up the Hormuz channel, lift American naval blockade and American sanctions to Iranian oil exports. This WSJ Editorial Board commentary says Iran has not acted on as it said it would - no talks on nuclear issue are started, and Iran launched missiles against shipping in Hormuz.  This WSJ editorial says Iran does not intend to open Hormuz or discontinue its nuclear weapons efforts. In this situation the only options for the US are to find alternative sources for oil for India and Japan, and China in tacit cooperation with the US to find alternative sources as well as make more efficient use of oil. China is now doing without the 4 million barrels it was getting from Hormuz and has decided to do without these supplies altogether. For the UAE and Saudis to find alternative routes to get most of the oil out, UAE to increase output outside of OPEC to reduce prices. All of these actions are taking place and the ceasefire offered a breather for that to get established creating a new situation where if Hormuz remains unopened the rest of the world will be able to go on as before without being seriously affected. Better management of overall oil supplies is already taking place, inventories are building up, so that at some point Hormuz does not affect oil prices significantly. This is the best and most realistic option and the US, China, India, Japan, the EU, are going ahead with it. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Iranian response to Memorandum of Understanding shows reality of 2 factions in Iran, the IRGC military faction, and the elected president Pezeshkian plus Turkey /Pakistan/Egypt and Qatar as the second faction. With IRGC military rejecting the Memorandum on opening Hormuz and discontinuing nuclear weapons programs. This was true at the time Vance conducted negotiations and the Memorandum appears to have been accepted by IRGC only under great pressure from Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar, and the faction under Iranian elected president Pezeshkian. Where IRGC thinking could have been to give  agreement to the Memorandum that they had no intention of keeping, as its policy on nuclear weapons remains unchanged, and its goal is to use Hormuz for leverage and extend its control of Hormuz channel. The cost of sanctions and not being able to export oil, the effect on its economy, on cost of living with rampant inflation, may be of little concern to the people who run the IRGC military who suppressed all dissent and protests in 2026. Protests across different parts of society to the deteriorating economy. How could the US respond? The US used the time of the ceasefire to create a new status quo by using open navigation of the seas as the principle behind opening and protecting the Omani side of the Hormuz for oil shipment. This is a principle accepted by all countries. There is a backup plan of the US, China, India, Japan and other countries and this is to prepare rapidly to do without Hormuz so that the economies of these nations are not affected. The US also supported efforts by Saudis and Kuwait, UAE, to increase oil exports through channels outside of Hormuz, UAE's decision to increase oil supplies and lower prices by leaving OPEC, and US creating alternative supplies for India through Venezuela. Most important is China's decision that it no longer needs the 5 million barrels of oil from Hormuz for its economy to operate using alternative supplies and increasing efficient use of its oil resources. The world is also building up oil supplies and inventories so that Iran cannot threaten a cutoff from Hormuz because all nations have made other arrangements. Attacks by Iran on oil shipping on the Omani side protected by the US breaking the principle of open navigation of the seas, can then be considered Iran disrupting an open seas navigation route which it no longer is allowed to do under international law. This is something the world public opinion would support. The NYT has been critical of the DJT action in Iran, the WSJ and other media had joined in criticism. The situation in July 2026 is that the criticism of the US by NYT and other media, and from Europe and other countries in Asia will now be muted, because the US has tried all the options and is now finding ways to be able to bypass Hormuz altogether, and a backup plan or strategy to minimize the impact on oil prices. So that oil price of $70 may be kept at level around 10-20% higher not much more as Iran's military IRGC continues to disrupt the Hormuz supplies.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The different views on Ukraine of the Republican party in the US are shown here in this WSJ report. The views range from Rand Paul, Donald Trump to Republican leadership in the Senate under Mitch McConnell. Mr. Trump is also seen as representing an older view of relations with Russia that may no longer exist after the full scale invasion of Ukraine. In this sense Russian tanks invading Ukraine is a watershed event like that of Prague in 1968 and Hungary in 1956. Old views no longer hold. The Cold War began with the Berlin Blockade in 1948- the response of president Harry Truman was the Berlin Airlift supplying the city of Berlin, and some such response is taking shape with the $350 million immediate aid to Ukraine that Biden promised on Feb. 26, within 48 hours of the invasion. The Hungarian revolution in 1956 set the stage for the Cold War after Soviet tanks entered Budapest. The West and the entire free world rallied in 1956 and again in 1968. Some such change is happening now throughout the free world. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A strong immune response for BA.4 and BA.5 using Pfizer's second booster shot designed to tackle the new Omicron variants.

LyrArc Article Gist
The head of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Mr. Alex Azar, repeatedly assured the president as early as January 29, that there never had been a better interagency response to coronavirus, says the WSJ. This WSJ report says based on interviews with administration officials and others that Mr. Azar waited for weeks to brief the president on the threat from coronavirus, did not coordinate effectively across the health divisions,  failed to ramp up testing development, and oversold what had been done. Testing is one of the key issues raised at this time about the coronavirus effort. Mr. Trump tweeted on April 12 that Mr. Azar "told me nothing until later." The president was dissatisfied with Mr. Azar's handling of the flavored e-cigarettes ban. This report says Mr. Azar was slow in working with other agencies such as FEMA, and in involving directly the FDA, CDC, and other agencies, to create a strong and effective response to a fast developing public health crisis of enormous proportions. In February White House advisors were critical of Mr. Azar for delays in the testing program. As the delays progressed this report says Mr. Pence and the White House gave more responsibility to FEMA, and Dr. Hahn and CMS's Ms. Verma were made active members of the White House Task Force. FEMA also played a bigger role with greater funding.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Putin response to BBC's Steve Rosenberg: plans for war on Europe idea is nonsense, in Q&A with Russian audience, December 20 2025.

LyrArc Article Gist
The state's response in the Izmit earthquake of 1999 was weak and unprepared. This brought an outsider Recep Erdogan to power in the elections of 2003. 17,000 people died in that earthquake with damaged areas of Istanbul. 24 years later the situation is repeating itself as the state is seen as unprepared and uncoordinated in its response in the first 48 hours. This time there is a situation where the buildings that were built according to the code for earthquake prone areas are standing and next to them is the rubble from buildings that collapsed. After 2003 construction permits tripled and some construction failed to conform to the required building code, says this report in The Guardian. 

Amid the rubble of buildings and near open fires people gathered outside say no one is helping us in one earthquake hit area of Pazarcik, in this report of The Guardian.

 

LyrArc Article Gist
The NATO Response Force numbers will be increased from 40,000 to 300,000 after the G-7 Summit and NATO meetings. This is the part of the allied forces that are in high readiness should Russia attack a NATO member country.

LyrArc Article Gist
Dulles with closeness to Churchill assumed a benevolent perception of the British Empire in Asia even with the enormous suffering and lack of development in China and India from the policies of the British. Such perceptions continued under Kissinger/Nixon, and Reagan/Rumsfeld. John Foster Dulles was Eisenhower's Secretary of State during the Cold War. He stated his ideas in Foreign Affairs in 1957 that were colored heavily by the China conflict (1949) Korean conflict (1950)  the Vietnam conflict (1954), the Hungarian Revolution (1956), and the struggle with the Soviet Union. Many of his ideas continued through the 1960's to the 1980's determining US policy in Vietnam, towards China and India, and in Rumsfeld's policies in the Middle East that involved the US in local and religious wars.  Dulles sought to respond to the aspirations of colonized nations in Asia - China, India, Vietnam- but lacked an understanding of the hundreds of years of colonial rule and suppression of freedom, increasing poverty by lack of investment in education, health and industry, faced by these countries in dealings with the British Empire.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The German response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is to increase its spending on defense to over 2% of GDP.  An emotional Scholz told an extraordinary session of the German parliament - We have to ask ourselves: "What capacities does Putin's Russia have? And which capacities do we need to counter his threats?" "Putin wants to establish a Russian Empire... the question is... whether we can summon the strength to set boundaries to warmongers like Putin," said Scholz. Scholz said he would immediately invest 100 billion euros or $113 billion in weaponry. Mr. Scholz also announced concrete arms procurements including the decision to buy state-of-the art drones from Israel and F-35 warplanes from the US, which he said would be used to amplify NATO's nuclear deterrent against Russia. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Leon Panetta gives his account of the response of the Obama administration to the attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya.

LyrArc Article Gist
President Trump has listened intently to Dr. Fauci and Dr. Brx of the White House team led by Vice President Pence, as he shapes policy decisions on tackling the epidemic. The White House team met again March 30 to see the data  about the coronavirus impact without lockdown and strict social distancing measures extended to April 30. Following this Mr. Trump extended the lockdown till April 30, 2020. This WSJ report shows how Mr. Fauci has forged a relationship with the president at a time of public health crisis. Dr. Fauci wins the respect of Democrats and Republicans, and the American people for the work he has done against epidemics, the valuable experience gained and how he is bringing this experience to the current crisis. It is also true that this is a team bringing different strengths and with mutual respect for each other- the calm demeanor and grip on data of Dr Brx, the experience of Dr. Fauci fighting epidemics for 30 years, the patience and hard work of Vice President Pence, and the president's fighting spirit and listening skills. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
India's options to respond to a terrorist attack in Kashmir in are limited by winter weather and the global political situation. Saudi Arabia and China have moved closer to China in recent years. Saudi Prince Salman visited Islamabad, Pakistan, and New Delhi. Britain is distracted by Brexit, and the U.S. president is engaged in a struggle with Congress over a border wall with Mexico.

With no powers making efforts to de-escalate the situation India's prime minister Modi- who faces elections in coming months- has to craft a response that meets domestic pressures to respond with restraint.

 

LyrArc Article Gist
The huge surge in demand for coronavirus testing equipment that has results provided in a short time. The nasopharyngeal swab test is the most in demand. The inability of the manufacturing system to deliver these tests in large enough numbers is still a major problem in fighting coronavirus.

LyrArc Article Gist
For the first time in three decades US economic growth will be much faster than China's. Second quarter 2021 growth in the US was 12.2% compared to 7.9% in China, and will continue to be much higher for five consecutive quarters. This report in the WSJ says it is the result of the US response to the Covid pandemic. The US vaccination drive, massive fiscal stimulus and near zero interest rates have helped, including the confidence generated by the $1 trillion infrastructure investments planned for this decade. Over the longer term Capital Economic estimates China's GDP around 2030 will drop to 2% growth with demographic decline, just as the demographic factors favor Indian growth to levels that China has seen in the last two decades. This was the plan and vision set out by the Indian prime minister for 2047, on the 100th anniversary of independence. For the future government help has helped US households accumulate $2.6 trillion in excess household savings, which Moody's estimates is 7 times that in China.  In the longer term gaps will have narrowed between Asia and Europe, the US, which is a good thing. More will need to be done in Africa and Latin America. Much of the talk about who leads ignores the local needs in cities and towns across all parts of the world for a better quality of life, better education, better nutrition, better healthcare, meeting aspirations of young people, and supporting hope for a better future. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Andrew Higgins provides this exceptional account of how the political and administrative authorites in Belgium are so divided because of ethnic and poltiical reasons, that they are often paralyzed. It is described as the Belgian disease. Belgium is a country that has French, Dutch and German ethnic groups and languages. Divided along linguistic lines, all centralized authority is resisted, leading to parts of Belgium becoming a haven for terrorist activity. Terrorists from Molenbeek, a part of Brussels, carried out the Paris attacks in November 2015. The German and French media coverage now ridicules the way Belgium is run.

LyrArc Article Gist
A 1 month study of 2 modified Pfizer vaccines, one targeted specifically for new Omicron variants, and the other targeted at earlier coronavirus and current Omicron variants show increases in anitbodies much higher than what current vaccines do. For Omicron specifically at 13 to 19 times more than what current vaccines increase antibodies, and for earlier variants and Omicron at 9 to 11 times more.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Oxford vaccine is shown to be effective for older adults over 70 years in age. One of the key features of the Oxford vaccine is that it is designed to be accessible in cost for not just high income countries but across all parts of the world including the countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America where some of the poorest people live. The cost will be a fraction of the cost of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccine. Results for regulatory approval are expected by Christmas. This vaccine is expected to cost about $4 a dose compared to $25 for the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Oxford also uses a technology for the vaccine that has already been proved effective with least side effects fr other virus such as Ebola virus. Oxford researchers took the existing vaccine technology and modified it to tackle coronavirus in a way that proves effective for this virus also. Countries such as South Korea say they will not rush into the first vaccine that is available and have not responded to requests for sale from Moderna or Pfizer. India's Serum Institute is the leading manufacturer of vaccines in the world. It is preparing for production of the Oxford vaccine. India's vaccine effort includes other vaccines developed by its research institutes. The focus of India is for a vaccine that is effective as well as meet cost so that it can be used to vaccinate over 1.3 billion people. Because India has strong already established manufacturing capabilities for vaccines and is collaborating with Oxford and Astra Zeneca for a low cost vaccine it is in a position to drive the campaign for an effective plus low cost 100% accessible vaccine for people around the world. Another aspect of the Astra Zeneca partnership with Oxford is that it has committed not to make a profit from the vaccine. This is important for Oxford researchers and its organizational goals. ...