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As schools reopen in India children bring stories that show how difficult three years of pandemic have been. Disruption in education is seen everywhere. In Delhi the government has set aside the syllabus to focus on the basics of reading, writing and maths.

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Charts of foot traffic in retail stores show traffic is back up in home improvement stores but lags in electronics and apparel. Apparel is well below levels below the pandemic with stores closing. E commerce sales in September were up by 45% compared to same period 2019, with this making up 16% of all U.S. retail sales.Weekly foot traffic in the U.S. is down 14% in September compared to one year ago.

Clothing stores have the lowest employment rate with a decline of 29% as of July, and this is where stores have closed the most with job losses permanent.

 

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Rebecca Long-Bailey, a Labour MP describes labour's program to end in-work poverty in the UK over 5 years. About 5 million people face in-work poverty in the UK which has become worse during the pandemic with little help from the Tories.

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This is a story of missteps in retailing that can lead to loss of as many jobs as when large automobile plants close-about 65000 jobs in retail at big box store Bed Bath & Beyond in 2019 down to 32,000 by 2022, and with all stores closing in 2023 all jobs lost. Some of these jobs were replaced with the growth of Amazon in online retailing and warehousing shipment, others permanently lost. Jordyn Holman and Lauren Hirsch of the NYT explain how a major retailer collapses into bankruptcy in 2023. This retail chain started in 1971 thrived on its two founder's concept of building a customer base around a store that piled high the volume of merchandise selection for bedsheets, towels, pillows, kitchen appliances, and offered 20% coupons on brand items. It survived the 2009 crisis and by 2012 its stores were up to 1100 from 350 ten years earlier in 2000. This was a result of 4 acquisitions including Buy Buy Baby and Harmon Stores Its collapse is a textbook case of what can happen. Its financial foundations were weakened by a bond offering $1.5 billion, going into the debt market for the first time.   From its success attracting activist investors and the company according to analysts trying to fend them off. The bond offering was the first step to impending disaster. In 2019 three activist investors won a fight to appoint 4 new board members and hire a new CEO Mr. Tritton from Target.  The big change happening just before the pandemic was the complete change of management with the new CEO. Stores that had made the decisions on what merchandise to buy based on location were no longer allowed to do so. Some stores were closed and there were layoffs reducing employee morale. The big change came to the 20% coupons which was the unique feature of the store getting people back into the store. Coupons were cut back as profits declined. The pandemic introduced new elements of surprise. The supply chains were disrupted, and just at that time new management decided to shift to private labels to increase margins and sales. Kitchen Aid was replaced with private labels. As a result of supply chain disruptions the stores could not be stocked leading to customers moving away, a crisis was brewing. At that very time something concealed the crisis from view. The Biden administration checks to support people during the pandemic led to a sudden increase in sales, a one time spurt. Then as suddenly as the spurt months later a complete dropoff in sales. Management closed more stores, suppliers who were not paid demanded to be prepaid leading to stores being only partly stocked. Bed Bath & Beyond collapsed as its coupons were dropped, its stores poorly stocked, no brand merchandise such as Kitchen Aid, and decisions made at the wrong time including the debt load all taking a toll at once. By the end of 2022 bankruptcy loomed. In April 2023 the company declared bankruptcy after failed efforts to raise additional financing. The same changes also hit Best Buy, another big box retailer, which managed the changes to internet buying by shifting sales to the healthcare sector, and continuing to build on it strengths as a retailer of motivated employees with knowledge of the electronic merchandise. It made it right through the pandemic without the changes in management that happened at Bed Bath & Beyond. ...

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Charles does a walkabout at St George's Chapel on Easter Day 2024, after a traditional Easter Service. He greets wellwishers who say they have the royal back. Charles and the Princess of Wales have boosted the spirits of many with their sharing of their own stories dealing with cancer. On Easter Day Britain comes together with the royal family in spirit just as it did when Queen Elizabeth gave her message to people in the early days of the pandemic.

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How one can meet the needs of older people in small rural communities is the subject of this video report in DW.com. Cottbus is 12 kilometres away and the nearest town to a small rural community Neuhausen in Brandenburg state, Germany. Many older people rely on public transport and there are no stores in the small rural areas. Hildegard Blaske in her 90, still goes cycling, and remembers the time before unification in 1990 when older people still counted in a different way and quaint little stores provided their needs in the area.  

Former Day center employees Ulrich and Cindy use a retrofitted Peugeot Boxer vehicle to take groceries to older people where they live. Older people hesitate to go to stores during the pandemic. And they offer a chat and local news. This kind of effort is also a part of life in France today.

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With Labour leading in polls Mr. Johnson faces a no confidence motion in parliament after 53 Tory members called for the motion. No elections are planned before Jan 2025. There are no choices for the Tories other than Mr. Johnson who could hold his broad coalition of working class districts in the north of England and affluent districts in London. Mr. Johnson has also taken England through the pandemic, vaccination drive, and pandemic aid programs to help the UK recover, which he reminded Tory members of parliament.  The partygate scandal refers to parties that Mr. Johnson says never happened but took place during the worst part of the pandemic which have created an impression of callous behaviour and disregard of rules. The Conservatives face another problem in that the US and the EU including countries such as Denmark, Germany and France are moving in a direction that favors leaders who are promoting a revival of manufacturing locally, creating local jobs instead of job shifting overseas, increasing minimum wage, and promoting interests of workers and families. Labor had lost credibility during the Blair years similar to SPD losing credibility during the Schroder years, France's Socialists losing credibility under Hollande, and the Democrats under Clinton-Obama, and a general loss of credibility of socialist leaders who failed to work for the interests of workers and families. Biden, Scholz, the German Greens under Habeck, and French under Melenchon are changing this today wtih a new and genuine commitment of respect for the dignity of workers and families, and women. There may be a sense of unease among Tories about how long the working class districts in the north of England will vote Tory when no investments are being made to fulfill the promises Boris Johnson has made. Yet Tories have no alternate leader and may be stumbling their way into the remaining part of their period in office as Britons look for a new future where the massive investments needed in manufacturing locally and in infrastructure take place to benefit workers and families. ...

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Consumer spending in the US is up for Christmas 2021 with 5.8 million more US jobs in October than a year earlier, with higher wage checks and stimulus checks, child tax credit payments, all boosting spending power. With 231 million Americans vaccinated with at least one shot compared to none Christmas last year more Americans are in stores. Shopping online is up only 7%, in store retail sales up 14%, according to Commerce Department. Passenger traffic on interstate highways is back up to where it was before the pandemic.

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The Tories are seen shifting their position from working with the unions during the pandemic and Boris Johnson's position that there would be no return to the period of "low wages, low skills, and low productivity," in this analysis in The Guardian. Faced with risks of higher inflation in Britain the conservatives have shifted to supporting no more than a 3% wage increase for rail workers in the face of 8% increase in inflation in Britain in 2022. Rail airline, other workers,, and the government now are on opposite sides on wages after joining together during the pandemic. Shortages of workers have pushed up wages in some sectors but others are lagging behind including transport workers, leading to the rail strike and other strikes of public sector workers.

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Years of Tory cuts and austerity spending left the UK unprepared for the pandemic, says this editorial in The Guardian. The running down of the public sector was a policy choice says The Guardian. In the decade before Covid the Tories cut public spending as a proportion of the GDP from 46% to 39% leaving Britain exposed during the pandemic. Jeremy Hunt continues in a long line of Tory chancellors who are impervious to comprehension of the fall in incomes of ordinary households, the working nurses and teachers who turn to food banks. Hunt even talks about another 100 billion pounds of cuts over the next 2 years. And  turning Britain into a Silicon Valley, when Silicon and Tech is failing in the US, and when the US Justice Department is seeking the breakup of Big Tech with support from Republican Bill Barr. 

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Milk sales have increased by 7% during the coronavirus period in grocery stores in the U.S., reversing 10 years of decline. Yet dairy farmers expect to struggle as sales to restaurants and hotels that use about a third of dairy products were lost during the pandemic..

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This In Depth view in The Times of the 2021 Conservative party conference in Manchester, says Boris Johnson was his old ebullient self in his conference speech rallying Tories. He is seen as not having a full grasp of the situation as schools reopen without covid precautions in place, overconfident about controlling the pandemic. He is also viewed as ignoring the impact this winter of higher gas prices, lack of enough labor for essential services, inflation and shortages of essential goods, on the British public. The general mood of the Tory conference appeared to be celebrating the Tory performance without preparing for unanticipated obstacles ahead for the British economy and for all sections of British society hit hard by the pandemic.

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Both the Tories in Britain and the Democrats in the US were caught by surprise by the sudden surge after the pandemic of illegal migrations flows in 2023-2024 which dropped to all time lows in 2019-2021 with the covid lockdowns. Tories with factional infighting and Democrats falsely believing they were virtuous humane could not take effective decisive immediate action costing them the defeats in 2024. The size of the illegal migration problem to the UK was underestimated in 2023. Tory rhetoric alone failed to convince the British public. In the US Biden not confronting it head on also failed to reassure the American people as the US Border also meant destructive Mexico/China fentanyl flows. Even today the action proposed falls short and new US bipartisan legislation is needed to make it the law of the land, closing three decades of stealth in immigration policies. ONS now estimates that it missed 166,000 people. The real figure for the year ending June 2023 for net migration was 906,000 not 748,000 as previously estimated. In the year ending June 2024 this figure for net migration was 728,000. Labour party under Keir Starmer made setting up the new structures for tackling alarming rise in migration the top priority in 2024. That lesson was not learned in the US and the issue not confronted head on to win public confidence- the Biden support for Republican Senator Lankford's legislation on illegal migrants and the border came late in 2023 and the issue was left to fester for 2 years eroding public confidence. In the US the issue of illegal fentanyl flows at the US Border and from China makes the Border and China relations issues that required effective and immediate action overriding everything else. In the end Tories confusion and internal factions, other controversies, led to lack of vigilance and lack of effective action as net migration deceptively hit lows of 254,000, 111,000, and 254,000 in the pandemic years 2019, 2020, and 2021, only to surge tremendously to 634,000 and 906,00 in the years 2022 and 2023.  Labour's Starmer took action to make it No. 1 priority in the platform going into the 2024 election winning public confidence. A similar surge in migration happened in the US after a deceptive slowdown in the pandemic, compunded by Venezuela and central American states collapsing. ...

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A difficult period in retail in 2020, with high spending on home and garden maintenance and the bankruptcies of some retailers during the pandemic. Retail sales haven't dropped in 2020 they have shifted to other kinds of spending. And shoppers still go out to do shopping as 16% of their spending happened outside physical retail stores similar to what happened last year.

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The median income in the US in 2024 is where it was in 2019 before the pandemic at about $83,000 with the upper 10% of the population making about $200,000 having a 5% increase. Median income means 50% of the US population makes above $83,000 and 50% below that. In 2024 compared to 2023 slight increase of about 4% for men compared to women, no change for white households, a drop of 3% for Black households, gains of 5% for Hispanic and Asian households, Census Bureau Report shows.

Overall cost of living prices at grocery stores, for automobiles, and housing rental, is what is impacting people the most and has left people in the lower half of the population with considerable anxieties about making ends meet. At $100,000-$150,000 incomes in the upper third of the population there is saving for colleges that have costs going through the roof and cost of child care that is causing anxiety.

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Mike Bird in the WSJ points out that there is very little foundation for the idea that there is a tradeoff between the economy returning to normal and lockdown measures. Singapore and Japan without strict lockdown measures have also shown very sharp economic decline. The U.S. Federal Reserve and MIT economists published a paper at the end of March that shows during the 1918 flu epidemic cities with stricter lockdowns actually had better economic outcomes. In the 1918 pandemic Philadelphia did not impose a strict lockdown till later, St Louis acted immediately with a lockdown. St Louis emerged out of the 1918 pandemic returning to economic normalcy much earlier than Philadelphia. It is critical say the authors to understand that pandemic economics is not normal economics. There are both a supply side and demand side effects. China today is still suffering from significant loss of world demand as it struggles even though its manufacturing and its retail stores are gradually returning to normal. It will continue to struggle as long as demand remains very low in the rest of the world. And even though the services sector is larger today in U.S. and Europe than in 1918, with a smaller manufacturing sector, the pandemic effects and economics provide a useful comparison.  Japan provides an example of how the services sector less exposed to overseas demand and with Japan operating without lockdown sees its service sector absolutely hammered.  This WSJ report says it recorded a sharper slowdown than even the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The authors of the study including from the MIT Sloan School of Management say they found no evidence that the cities that acted more aggressively in public health terms did worse in economic terms. If anything says MIT Sloan Asst, Prof. Vermer the cities that acted aggressively did better. The authors are specific, the cities that performed 50 days more of social distancing performed better in manufacturing employment by 6.5% after the pandemic ended through 1923. Earlier social distancing by 10 days translated into a 5% increase in manufacturing employment. ...

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Mr. Boris Johnson resigns as member of parliament on June 8, 2023, with criticism of the Rishi Sunak Tory government. The Guardian shows the years in office 2019- 2022 of the man who took Britain out of the European Union, and his years in office during the pandemic. From 2016 to 2018 he was Foreign Secretary.  He was preceded by David Cameron of the Conservatives who setup a coalition government in 2010 with austerity policies till 2016, much of whose latter years as prime minister were overshadowed by Mr. Johnson leading the Brexit faction in the party and as Mayor of London. In 2023 with Britain under a cost of living crisis and in financial stress after the austerity years, this period looks like a lost decade for Britain- with the failure of its leaders under the Tories.

 

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Poor performance by UK Tories leader Kemi Badenoch at PMQ Prime Ministers Questions in the British parliament, broadcast on C-SPAN every Sunday at 9.00 pm US EST, is leading to speculation among Tories that she may not be around after local elections. Robert Jenrick who contested the leadership election is around says skeptics. Tories have changed leaders from  Cameron to May, May to Johnson, to Truss, to Sunak, to Badenoch, and now Jenrick? That would be the seventh new Tory leader since David Cameron assumed office in 2010. Then followed Brexit and Covid pandemic, and Labour taking office with the British now favoring being part of the European Union, all coming in full circle through 7 prime ministers in 15 years. 

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Construction spending in manufacturing was $108 billion in 2022. Total manufacturing employment is at about 10% of the private sector. About 800,000 jobs were added in the private sector in the last 2 years. The total number is 13 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. About 800,000 additional jobs are ready to be filled. For years after World War II the growth in manufacturing was at 4%. Today the growth will be higher after incentives introduced by president Biden in different sectors from semiconductors to electric vehicles.  In other products from eyeglasses to socks and bicycles there is a shift to adding factories in the US to be able to fill increase in demand and for stores carrying less inventory that can be replenished quickly from home factories. The supply chain problems and logistics cost increases during the pandemic have driven home the need for having supply from within the US or very close to the US in Mexico or Canada, or friendshoring in India or Vietnam. ...

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The story of how a shoe company Hoka One with an odd sounding name made itself known and managed its growth from $3 million to $1 billion, patiently working through each step, not rushing anything. It was started by two French men who met at a ski race in the French Alps. It means in Maori, a New Zealand language- flying over the earth.They took shoes from a minimalist approach to a maximalist one by building larger shoes with a design that would make them very comfortable to wear. They shipped 1100 pairs to the US in 2010, and in 2012 Deckers took a stake, later buying the company. It started with word of mouth in the running community and then spread during hybrid work in the pandemic. It went from running shops to REI and special retailers and only carefully to select stores at larger chains like Dick's Sporting Goods. Each step was gradual, carefully taken, an unusual approach in this business.

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Advertising revenues increased for Google, Facebook and Amazon in 2020 as these three companies took over 50% of total ad revenues in 2020. Large companies shifted more ad spending from television and print media to digital in the pandemic after finding the return on ad spending was increasing on digital. Smaller companies including the jump in startup companies increasing from 300,000 a month over the decade to 500,000 by July 2020, put all their ad dollars into digital. The result is that the pandemic has given the 3 digital companies a dominant role in the advertising economy. More time spent in front of computer screens, more ec-commerce, new business formation, and tech companies ability to steadily increase return on ad investment, has produced strong revenue generation. The pandemic had the effect of increasing retail purchases online from 10% to 16% in the second quarter of 2020. Biscuit maker Mondelez found that return on ad spending was 25% higher on digital compared to television and now spends about half of its $1.1 billion ad budget on digital. Trendy garment makers are seeing returns on ad spending that are high with quadrupling of sales following a doubling of ad budget for active apparel maker Vuori of California. Small advertisers such as Vuori are the reason digital ad spending has remained strong for Google, Facebook and Amazon. For furniture maker Steelcase in Michigan the return on ad spending on digital using Amazon made up for the lack of sales from its brick stores. It increased online staff from 2 to 25 and was able to bring in $30 in sales dollars from $1 in digital ad spending. ...

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The average price of a smartphone in India in 2022 was $206 excluding taxes, Apple's smartphones go for $898. With discounts Apple is now bringing the price down to below $500. In 2019 phones over $500 made up 3% of the market. This has increased to 6% in 2022. Apple is counting on this share of the market going up and prices being brought down below $500 to build a larger share of the market. Its market in 2023 is about 5% in India compared to 22% in China.

In China Apple has its own stores. It is only now opening its first store in Mumbai. This and building manufacturing facilities in India could be the way to increase its share of the market in India to where it provides an alternative comparable to the Chinese market. This is the first time after the pandemic and the supply chain issues, the idea of friendshoring, that Apple is reorienting its policy for making India a key part of its supply chain and market. 

 

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Some readers of WSJ in their comments found this story about travel overseas a bit pretentious and privileged, but we have put this in anyway, as it reflects a sincere attempt to share experience. Some of it relates to slowing down in travel to relate to nature as one gets older. Some of it to explore new or fascinating places that have some meaning for us. A recent visit to the Golden Temple in Amritsar, India, and the original Golden Temple in Amritsar from ancient history, both under night skies and waters surrounding the temple had the same effect. Spending nights looking up at the night sky at constellations, hearing stories about them and learning about them as the writers say is an experience that is precious at this time of the pandemic. Slowing down is an experience we can all do such as taking train trips as the writers say they did from Denver to California. This allows one to explore nature at a slower pace. A trip to the St Lawrence Seaway in Quebec and up the St Lawrence river was one of those experiences in the wilderness that had the same impact.  ...

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The paradox during the opioid crisis of American companies conducting business and trade in and with China on a magnitude never seen before in history disassociated from their own neighborhoods in the US is nowhere more evident than in this crisis. A similar paradox between the government in China disassociated from American communities and local stores that import its products and keep workers employed in China in the case of China. And the paradox of the American government allowing any action whatsoever of this type that affects communities in the US and continuing business and trade as normal exists today. It has the impact of eroding public confidence in the relationship between two countries even as it damages the fragile situation of communities in the US hit by lack of investment in infrastructure, in manufacturing, health, and following the pandemic in incomes. It shows the danger of business and trade operating in a vacuum or compartmentalized not aware of everything that is happening in societies and communities that surround it. In any case it is the communities and the land that always exist even as businesses trade patterns change, or take different forms, and some disappear. ...

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This NYT report looks at the 20 counties within 5 battleground states in the midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, eastern state of Pennsylvania, southern state of North Carolina and western state of Arizona. It shows the percentage of votes gained by the Republican and Democratic parties in the last 3 presidential elections. A look at the trend and direction of vote percentages gained by each party in each of the 20 counties in different states may be a better indication of the final result than polls alone as both parties are pushing hard in the 2020 election down to the last day. The Republicans strong in the ground game and organized effort, and Democrats in television advertising outspending the Republicans. Because of the clearly delineated positions the Democrats and Republicans stand in sharp contrast to each other both in image and substance.  Because of the Electoral College and states assigned electoral votes based on size the U.S. system is not based on the total vote count in the country. Who wins each state by vote count and gets the assigned electoral college votes assigned to that state, an builds up more than 270 Electoral College votes wins the election for president of the USA.  In Michigan there is the impact of the resurgence of the auto industry, with president Trump pulling out of TPP agreement and renegotiating NAFTA in favor of the U.S. auto industry bringing back jobs from Mexico. This puts the union vote in the auto industry- with Ford, GM and Chrysler located in Michigan- favoring these auto friendly policies from the current administration. The resilience of the auto industry sales during coronavirus is part of the economic story in Michigan. The renegotiated NAFTA treaty also helped dairy farmers of Wisconsin increase sales to Canada. In Pennsylvania the coronavirus and economic impact has hit harder than in Michigan with the decline in oil prices and effect on fracking industry. Closure of coal plants is also having a negative impact on the state. Tariffs on Chinese steel by the administration are helping the steel industry. Offsetting these economic stories is perception of how the coronavirus pandemic has been tackled by the administration. Added to this is the suburban women's vote and the shift of out of state liberal voters to suburbs in North Carolina (Wake county), and in Arizona (Maricopa county and Tucson area). States not covered here but also relevant are Minnesota which could be a battleground state in the midwest and Iowa. Racial protests in Minneapolis add another dimension with controversies about the policing in cities such as Minneapolis and recently Philadelphia. The sharp contrasts in image as well as policy, the coronavirus pandemic and the handling of the pandemic as well as the way rallies are being conducted differently by both candidates, and the economic stories, present an election like no other since the 1960's. The contrast is as sharp as between Gen. Dwight Eisenhower of the wartime allied effort and Adlai Stevenson a liberal and humanist in the 1952 election. That election saw some of the highest turnouts since the second world war, and this is now happening today. That election also determined the direction of postwar growth and dominance of American industry, the setting up of the National Highway system and important changes that were later continued under the Kennedy administration. It also marked the beginning of the Cold War following the Korean War under the Truman administration, a situation that is emerging in a different way today with the free world and the tension from relations with China. ...