LyrArc Article Gist
Republicans gave US Congress 63% rating when DJT was elected in Jan 2026- this has since dropped in Gallup polls to 20% in 5 months. Overall US Congress has only a 10% approval rating one of the worst in its history. Only once was this exceeded- in 2013 when Obama was president with the budget impasse and 16 day federal government shutdown.

LyrArc Article Gist
Each party, is trying to put pressure on the other with dueling bills in Congress, as the federal government shutdown continues in the U.S.  Mr. Trump's proposal includes the $5.7 billion to construct a steel barrier along the border with Mexico.    

LyrArc Article Gist
The US government shutdown ends with Republicans + 8 Democrats in Senate voting to end shutdown on November 10, 2025. This keeps the filibuster voting rule which requires 60 votes to pass. Support of some Democrats was essential to make this happen. After bipartisan negotiations 7 Democratic Senators and Angus King Independent from Maine split with their party leaders Schumer and Jeffries of New York who called for a 1 year extension of Obama ACA healthcare subsidies which the Republicans opposed.  Democrats ensured the funding for SNAP benefits continues to Sept 2026 and the 4000 federal layoffs would be reversed and prevent future layoffs in the federal workforce. Democratic Senators voting with Republicans were Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen of Nevada, Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Dick Durbin of Illinois joined the Senators from New Hampshire and Nevada. John Fetterman who has voted independently of the Democrat party to meet views of Pennsylvania constituents supported the move. This splits New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada, Illinois and Pennsylvania from the Schumer-Jeffries leadership from New York. Tim Kaine voted with Republicans by getting them to agree to reverse federal workforce layoffs, get back pay and stop layoffs. King, Hassan and Shaheen formed the core of Democrats who believed there was no chance Obama ACA subsidies would be extended for another year as long as shutdown continued whereas there was some chance after it ended. Both Senators from Nevada Rosen and Masto were following the needs of their constituents, and so was Fetterman of Pennsylvania. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Tim Kaine's reason for joining Senate vote- to reduce hardship across the US, knowing the key actors and the chances of Republicans approving ACA subsidies were zero. Tim Kaine in his own words says why he joined in meeting with 2 New Hampshire Senators Shaheen and Hassan, and Angus King of Maine, to end the shutdown. He says he got Republicans to agree on support funding for food assistance and for veterans families and for workers in the federal government. Other reports show that over 300,000 workers in the federal government are from Tim Kaine's voter base in Virginia- he is a former governor of Virginia- all affected by job cuts and needing back pay, and he was doing what he though was right for them and for the Nation. 

LyrArc Article Gist
President Trump agreed to a reopening of the government for 3 weeks, till a compromise could be worked out between Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate. He did not call it a concession but as a way to help 800,000 federal workers who have not received paychecks for 35 days. The president says if the situation is not resolved by Feb 15 there could be another shutdown on the issue of the border wall.

This report says in the month of negotiations both sides have seen that a border wall from end to end  is not needed but that sensors and other devices could also be used to monitor the border. In the impasse in Congress not all Republicans agreed with Mr. Trump leading to the decision by Mr. Trump to take a pause to rethink this issue for a compromise. In recent days air traffic controllers called in sick causing delays, and criticism from federal agencies including the FBI increased creating pressure for a resolution of the dispute.

LyrArc Article Gist
Some of the concern about the economy comes from the economic damage done by the coronavirus. The longer the shutdowns continue the more the damage. About 17 million have filed claims for unemployment benefits. The WSJ consensus of 57 economists is that 14.4 million jobs will be lost in coming months, and the unemployment rate will rise to a record 13% in June, from a 50 year low of 3.5% in February. The earliest the economy could go back to the level in February 2020 is 27 months says the WSJ economist survey. The brighter side of this comes in two aspects of this pandemic recovery curve. By flattening the curve and strict testing, contact tracing and isolation till the vaccine is developed about half the jobs lost can be recovered by the end of summer, says Moody's Analytics. The vaccine a year from now or in 9 months by November 2020 would allow the economy to recover faster. A more optimistic view comes from Daiwa Capital Markets which predicts many of people laid off will be recalled quickly allowing the labor market to recover in 6 months by September or October 2020. Only finance and real estate might take longer but most of the industries where the vast majority of jobs are could be back on their feet. The credible evidence supporting this perspective of a rebound comes from Colorado and Washington which require large employers to specify whether layoffs are temporary or permanent, 70% this year are temporary. Compare this to the prior 2009 recession where this figure was less than 1%- as reported by WSJ. The big push in this direction will be the $2 trillion that the Trump administration and U.S. Congress have committed to this task. Even more so is the determination of president Trump to protect American workers at all costs, that every job counts, and that businesses without exception to get the money have to show that workers are retained. The very success of the aid is being judged by how quickly people are back to work. Now for a look at where the situation is today- Oxford Economics, a UK based forecasting and consulting firm, projects 27.9 million jobs lost with industries other than those ordered to close making up 8 to 10 million of that number. It projects April's report will will capture late March layoffs. It will show cuts to 3.4 million business services workers, including lawyers, software groups, architects and consultants, advertising professionals, in addition to 1.5 million non-essential healthcare workers, 100,000 information workers. One conclusion of this report is that the virus does not discriminate across business groups and business service workers are also affected. Many companies that were hiring will cancel that move and many will cut hours worked. Many of these business services are not a priority. Hospitals are affected too, as they cut elective surgical procedures and routine care that are major revenue sources. Some are now charging for telemedicine visits to maintain some revenue stream. State and local governments employ 20 million workers. As tax receipts decline these local governments will face choices of cutting payrolls and services without enough federal government relief. In a way laying off workers and having them take unemployment benefits shifts that burden to the federal government so that services for overtime to police and paramedics, retention and deployment of nurses in schools.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Labor department reported that unemployment surged to 10.2 % in October 2009. 190,000 jobs were lost in October 2009. Ther breakdown lokks like this. Construction lost 62,000 jobs, manufacturing lost 61,000 jobs forming the bulk of the job losses. Its interesting to note that only 16,000 jobs were gained in the federal government and 16,000 jobs were lost at the local government level making the net gain zero at the government level. And what was gained in the health care sector 28,700 jobs and in educational services 10,700 jobs for a total of 39,400 jobs was completely offset by 39,800 jobs lost in retail sector. The useful point here is that local governments are hurting and retail sector is hurting and little is going to change this as long as job losses continue and the gains at the government level and healthcare and educational services are simply offset by losses inretail and local government. This situation will likely ocntinue into 2010. The losses in manufacturing are likely to continue. A sample of companies like Eaton, Boeing and John Deere shows that 2010 will not generate many jobs. Eaton has decided to have its 55,000 employees take aweek of each quarter, so there is one twelfth work capacity unused which is where Eaton will turn to before hiring. At Boeing there are layoffs of 10,000 planned but its also hiring 3800 workers for anew factory in South Carolina, and at John Deere 452 workers will be recalled in November but in December there is aplanned shutdown. A September Survey by Business Roundtable found that 13% of firms planned to increase employment in the next 6 months, but 40% planned to cut payrolls. So manufacturing looks to go on like this in 2010 with slowing but continued job losses. The numbers show that in October the median number of weeks it takes to find ajob up to 18.7 weeks which is the highest number since the sixties. What gets ignored by the small print you find it in the Wall Street Journal is the broader unemployment rate which is 17.5% when you include those who have stopped looking, those who work part time but need full time work and the marginally unemployed. The rates jump for younger workers here and in Europe also. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Ryan-Murray budget deal of Dec. 2013 is seen as a ceasefire between Republicans and Democrats with modest changes to the sequester defense and domestic spending cuts and increase in retirement payments by federal employees.

LyrArc Article Gist
This NYT editorial says the Democrats achieved much of what they wanted in the Ryan-Murray U.S. Budget deal by taking out 61.5% of the sequester cuts in domestic programs and adding back $31.5 billion for programs in transportation, health, education and other programs.

LyrArc Article Gist
Analysts fear an oil shock in 2012 similiar to that in 2008. There is similiarity in the situation now and in 2008- as in 2008, the surge in oil prices comes at a time of higher tensions with Iran and shrinking spare capacity. Spare capacity is at 2.5 million barrels a day on average for January and February 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. This compares with 3.7 millon barrels a day for the same period in 2011. Part of the reason is that global oil demand is increasing in 2012 by 1 million barrels a day, to 89 million barrels a day. Technical and political problems have shutdown another 750,000 barrels a day. The problems begin to kick in during the second half of 2012. The U.S. ban on dealing with the Iranian central bank for oil trades starts in June 2012. According to the International Energy Agency, the EU embargo and U.S. sanctions will take 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude out of the market. The result will be that demand exceeds supply by the third quarter by 1.1 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Use of existing reserves in Europe, the U.S. and other countries will make up the gap. The effect will be to put pressure on oil prices. May Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was up to $125.81 a barrel, on March 16, 2012, and prices for April delivery were at $107.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange....