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This graphical presentation, a fascinating look in the NYT shows how the different epidemics, natural disasters and other events compare over the world over the last century. It shows that using a normal mortality rate for a city the worst was Philadelphia in the 1918 spanish flu epidemic. How does this one compare with today's coronavirus pandemic would be a reader question. New York is shown at 5.8 X, Bergamo in Italy at 6.7 X and Philadelphia at 7.3 X. This means New York suffered about 6 times the deaths compared to a normal year. Fifteen thousand people lost their lives in Philadelphia in 1918. As one can see New York went through a lot. The race riots and curfews added to the difficulties the city has faced. When you get past 5.0 X it is only when there is famine or war that one sees this level of deaths. Bergamo in Italy suffered the worst in Europe. Madrid was hit hard at 4.6 X. 14,000 people died in Madrid in the month between mid March to mid April, with a normal deaths in the city at 3000 for a month. In Latin America Lima, Peru, did worse in the coronavirus at 3.99 X, that exceeded New York city in the Spanish flu virus of 1918 at 3.97 X. For New York city this means the coronavirus was at 5.8 X a bigger impact on the city for the mid March to mid April period compared to October 1918. More than 8000 people died in Lima compared to a normal 3000.  Guayaquil, Ecuador is at 5.50 X hit very hard. In Europe Paris is at 2.6 X, and London at 3.0 X, Barcelona at 3.0 X.  By comparison Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans and it is at 2.4 X showing that what these cities in Europe went through was like a hurricane going through the cities.  ...

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What is the oldest man alive like. Bob Weighton was presented with his certificate by the Guinness World Records this week. He lives in a assisted living home and is self isolating. Here is someone who has been through the 1918-20 Spanish flu pandemic that took millions of lives all over the world. What is he like? He was a professor of Marine Engineering at the City University of London till he retired at age 65 in 1973. Weighton says he is very pleased he was able to live so long and make so many friends. He has had serious medical operations but nothing he has experienced is like the coronavirus and self-isolation. He calls it "bizarre." But his advice is that there is nothing you can do about this so you might as well do what you can and  never mind about what you can't. He has 3 children, 10 grandchildren and 25 great grand children. He and wife Agnes traveled and worked around the world then settled back in the UK. She and his wife Agnes who passed away in 1993 volunteered in retirement as marraige counselors and helped youth groups in Alton.  ...

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Britain staged a rehearsal for a pandemic called Cygnus in 2016. Till that time the preparations for a pandemic that started years earlier during the SARS crisis were conducted vigorously. Yet the by this time Britain was becoming immersed in the Brexit struggles in the ruling Conservative Party. Prime minister Cameron resigned on July 13, 2016  and was replaced by Theresa May. From that time on the struggles with pro Brexit factions led by Boris Johnson consumed the COnservative Party and sucked the life out of the pandemic planning that Britain had conducted for years before. The recommendations to correct deficiencies from the pandemic rehearsal exercize were ignored. The second failure happened as the crisis approached. Again the Brexit date of January 31 intervened and the months long struggle to get Brexit had taken so much energy and tired out most of the British public including new prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party Boris Johnson. Johnson did not attend the first Cobra meeting of the highest level ministers and military, convened on January 25, 2020, as reported in the Times. Such meeting are convened only for a national threat. Only 5 weeks later on March 2 did the prime minister attend a Cobra meeting. During this time the situation was grave in Italy with rising cases and infections. The entire process was conducted during this time by the Health minister Mr. Hancock who had assured the public that the situation was under control. Britain now has the highest number of infections in Europe exceeding that in Italy- at 240,000 on May 15, 2020. The prime minister and his adviser Mr. Cummings, were also infected by the virus, and Mr. Johnson spent time in ICU before recovering. Queen Elizabeth addressed the nation on Easter day, the first such address since 1940, to boost Briain's spirits. Never had Britain been less prepared as in 2020 when earlier preparations were ditched for austerity plans and events such as Brexit fatigue conspired to strip the nation of the crucial 5-6 weeks of preparation since the first January 25 Cobra meeting of the highest people in government.  Never had such preparation even for 6 weeks been more crucial than in February and March as the infectivity ratio was determined by infectious disease specialists at the best British universities and scientific institutions to be between 2.6 and 3.4 compared to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 which was somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0. This means every one person infects another 3 persons, compared to about 1 person in a regular flu season. This reproduction ratio and the nature of coronavirus remain a threat today as Britain, Europe, the U.S. and the world reopens.  As reported in the Times the infectivity ratio was also the reason for the mindset that refused to believe that the virus was real because at 3.0 infectivity the only way to tackle it was a "lockdown," and this was itself an "apocalypse" scenario for many in the pro-Brexit Conservative party that won the election, which badly wanted to get back to economic activity after Brexit. ...

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A look at two crises in 1918 and 1957 of virus pandemics shows early and decisive action to prevent public from gathering and intermingling, are critical. In today's densely populated urban environments this translates into lockdowns and quarantines that are strictly enforced. The 1918 pandemic took 50 million lives worldwide, the 1957 pandemic took 1 million lives worldwide, says this report based on some estimates. MIstakes were made then and science was not as developed for vaccines and new drugs. Which is why health authorites are taking this very seriously. Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at coronavirus health crisis in relation to earlier disasters- SARS 2003 originating in China, 1957 flu epidemic, 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, to draw insights on what measures have worked best. Previous epidemics and crises provide clues on what makes things worse or better and the long term consequences of actions. The more health and safety are prioritized there is some impact on the economy. But crises have proven that the economic impact is temporary and short lived with the economy and jobs bouncing right back once the crisis has passed. The second insight is that early on in the crisis there is a great deal of uncertainty, leading to fumbled or delayed, or timid response. Sort of like lets wait for more information coming out of China, or now Italy, which happened first in February, and then again in March. Tim Adams who worked in the U.S. Treasury Department during 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, and is now the president of the Institute of International Finance, says if you look to plan a perfect response you lose valuable time. Time is of the essence. Learning to make speed the priority, to think in tranches, be visible, and worrying about how to pay for it later, is what he says he has learned from these crises response efforts. In the case of the coronavirus, some valuable time was lost becausee of the uncertainty and lack of early information, making speed and rapid comprehensive action very critical. The Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 infected over 500 million people worldwide and killed 50 million or more, including 675,000 in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. During this epidemic the Chicago public health commissioner flatly opposed closing businesses, saying worry kills people more than the epidemic. A 2007 study shows cities that took that attitude saw higher death tolls in the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918. Philadelphia waited 16 days before restricting social gatherings, St Louis took just 2 days. The result: the daily death rate from the epidemic peaked at level five or more times higher in Philadelphia than in St. Louis. Social distancing was not much of an issue then as people worked in jobs that required less contact, such as farming, fishing and forestry, as well as other jobs that did not require that contact in large offices.   ...