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NYT gives this perspective of Mikhail Zygar on the difficult economic situation in Russia in January 2026 before the Iran War. Putin considering bringing Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft, as negotiator for Russia with Ukraine, to replace Kirill Dimitriev. Dimitriev is seen in Russia as an insubstantial figure and with no real mandate, on the point of being dismissed by Putin. This would being new life to Ukraine negotiations to end the war. This report says if Russia was to end the war it would have to change the structure of power and that included bringing in a new administration to rebuild the economy, to replace prime minister Mikhail Mishustin. He says oil was sold to India in January for $22 per barrel about one third of the market price. The economy was getting severely affected by the war and the conditions it had created for inflation, oil revenues under sanctions, and by financial and human cost of the Ukraine war, a credit crunch and a wave of bankruptcies that were expected in January 2026. Some of this is confirmed by the perspective offered on the same day this article appeared in NYT by an NYT article from the Foreign Minister of Sweden, Maria Malmer Stenegard. Stengard says Swedish analysis shows central bank interest rates set at 21% in 2024 when interest rates were 10%, suggest inflation was much higher than the 5% official figures. The minister also points out that instead of growing by 13% as official figures reported Russian economy had declined by 8% over 2020 to 2024. British government estimate is that the losses from the Ukraine war are $450 billion. Official growth estimate for 2026 is 0.4%. even with higher oil prices. All this changed with the Iran war by February and the jump in oil prices and Putin has decided not to make the changes he thought necessary and wind up the war, considering that some of the objectives had been achieved and to avoid an economic downward spiral. It is now Putin's decision says this report.  In the past Putin has always given the economy and living standards the priority. Yet the elites in Russia says this report are concerned about the fragile nature of the economy as present oil prices may come down in a short period. ...

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The broken world economy has hurt the American people, in small communities and towns across the US whose societal fabric was destroyed by a system of world trade with abuses done by China. Japan, European Union, Canada and Mexico since 2000. Shortsighted American leaders and economists allowed this to happen. Robert Lighthizer on the New World Order a new system of world trade that replaces the old in 2026. The old trading system was one in which lip service was made to free trade while all the time the system was used by Japan, Germany, China, Canada, Mexico and other nations to build non tariff barriers and other policies to support their industry  at the expense of the United States leading to disillusionment in the US. The facts are mind boggling- the loss of 5 million jobs, many small communities across the US decimated with loss of jobs. About 20 trillion in wealth transfers to China and other countries over 2000-2020, with foreigners owning $27 trillion more of US assets than the US owns of theirs. US Trade Deficits that went up by 40% in 4 years of the Biden administration from $800 billion to $1.2 trillion. Economists and weak leaders got it all wrong allowing this to happen from Geoge W. Bush to Clinton Bush and Obama. Lighthizer says "shortsighted leaders aided and abetted this process," from 1990 to early 2010. Consider that US had 17.3 million  people in manufacturing, in factories all over the US in 1970, in 1999 we had the same number of jobs, even though there were changes in technology and productivity- the US held its own with the rest of the world. The Bush, Obama years were the worst for the US industry - by 2026 we have 12.6 million - loss of 4.7 million jobs since 1999. And real median household income took a big hit growing from $72,000 to $84,000 about 17% in the last 25 years, compared to twice that in the period 1975-2000 prior quarter century. The result is the fracturing of American society- and dire consequences for healthcare as communities suffered from loss of jobs leading to drug overdoses, alcohol abuse and suicides, which are common in post industrial American communities. Think of this fact: two thirds of America's workforce that does not have a college degree, that is working class people, lives 8 fewer years than college graduates, a gap that was only 2.5  years in 1992. The wars carried on by Bush and continued by Obama in the Middle East also wracked these same communities till Biden and DJT pulled out. One has only to drive across America to see this with one's own eyes. Trade may be an abstract topic for economists and politicians- there is nothing abstract about this. And the economic growth of the US has suffered with the unfair trading system with China, European Union, Japan, Canada and Mexico. From 1945 to 2000 American growth was 3.2% a year. Since 2000 only 2 years of growth over 3%. US has not seen historically normal growth for the last 19 years and at this rate (if we continued along this path) the Congressional Budget Office says 1.8% growth for 2027-2035. There are other factors yet the the major driver of this is our trade deficit of $1.2 trillion dollars a year. It is a story of remarkable persistence in the Nation's interest through 2 adminstrations- this Lighthizer story. Lighthizer fought Japanese commercial interests as Deputy Trade Representative under Ronald Reagan, and as US Trade Representative under DJT in the first DJT administration in 2016-2020. His Deputy at the time is Jamieson Greer who is now the US Trade Representative in the second DJT adminstration in 2025. For 30 years this brave American patriot has fought to reverse the bad actions of presidents and economists that have led to devastating losses in the American countryside. He says any new trading system must be perceived as fair to working people. It will survive only if working people think it is good for them. It cannot and must entrench a small, permanent elite. The benefits going to labour must be at least as great as those going to capital. It should create fulfilling high paying jobs for the vast majority of the American people. This is America's new promise to its people, its new compact with its people. ...

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At this point in May (May 22, 2026) a glimmer of hope appears for settling both the crisis in Hormuz and the Ukraine war. Pakistan, Turkey and China following DJT visit to China may be pushing Iran to lower the scale of the conflict. China's first priority was to be accepted by the US at the Beijing meeting as an equal power with the US, and keen to show its willingness to bear responsibility for peaceful resolution in conflict zones as a sign of its maturity as a world power. Much of this is not shown in the media as it is mostly done behind the scenes in communications that the media knows nothing about. Note that even in the depths of the Cold War during the Hungarian revolution of 1956 and Soviet action in Budapest, the US and the Soviets when their economies were not intertwined as the US and China are today, were still talking to each other to limit the conflicts to low level conflict. Hong Kong takeover, China's actions near Taiwan, China's presence in Latin America, Chinese cooperation with Iran, and Russia on Ukraine, China's economic competition in rare earths, are relatively smaller levels of friction considering 1950's Soviet's and the US. At the same time China and the Us are aware of a new bloc emerging in Oslo in May, where India is merging its economy with the Nordic economies of Sweden, Denmark and Norway, and of the European Union and Germany, creating a new bloc of 2 billion people that can only grow rapidly with India's potential to exceed growth rates of 20% in the 600 million Eastern region for a decade. EU would make the shift to strategic partnership with India displacing the vital role the European Union has played in China's growth and economy. This would create new pressures for Russian president Putin to decide it is time to listen to a friend India and de-escalate lower the level of conflict with an initial peace deal that would lead to more talks on a final settlement. Because Russia would have a harder time tackling both India and Germany at the same time. NYT shows on the same day May 22 a report on Russia and a report by the Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Sonegard that say the elites in Russia and Putin were by January 2026 having very serious discussion to change the administration, bring Igor Sechin as negotiaor to end the Ukraine conflict before serious, possibly irreversible damage, to the Russian economy. Sweden's Sonegard says that between 2020 and 2024 Russian economy declined by 8%, not grew by 13% as official figures show, inflation is much higher than 5% as official figures show, and credit is tightening, bankruptcies expected, growth even with oil prices up down to 0.4% for 2026. During 20 years running Russia Putin's No. 1 priority, his life's mission was to restore, then exceed by a large margin the living standards of the Russian people. Having at such great cost accomplished the goal of gaining recognition as a Northern Power in Europe, having gained much of Russian speaking eastern Ukraine, Putin could wisely with self respect wind down Ukraine conflict for good. The US gains something similar to Northern Power status for Russia in its recommitment to the Monroe Doctrine, with Russia withdrawing from any involvement- and China tacitly doing the same-  in the western hemisphere. With that the US can tackle its own losses that match Russian losses in lives- loss of more American lives than in the Korean and Vietnam and WWI combined to drug smuggling from Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, and restoring rule of law in Cuba, Venezuela, and through drug cartel free Mexico good governance in Mexico.  ...

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Thucydides, Greek historian on the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens 431 BC, cited by Xi Jinping of China during DJT visit to China, May 2026. “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?” "Thucydides Trap," is about one established power being threatened by another rising power, as Sparta felt threatened by a rising Athens in the Greek world around 431 BC, leading to a long over 30 years war.  “The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, of Taiwan, an island near China's coast where ChiangKaishek set up his government after the fall of his government in Beijing in 1949 to Communist People's Army of Mao Zedong. “If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation."  What China sees is a future of strong economic growth based on China having built its industrial strength and world trade to exceed 1.2 trillion dollars of trade surplus in 2026. Yet this is only the beginning. US and European Union, and India+Japan are three economic regions compared to the situation in Greek history. The combined three economic regions potential for scientific and industrial advances in the future till 2045 in a synergistic fashion one building on top of the other's advances, far exceed the potential of the Chinese economy and industry by itself. This is why any such conflict may over time fizzle away as three economic regions of EU, US and India advance, particularly the 1.4 billion people of India, which will see growth rates of 20% annually for 10 years to 2035 in Eastern Indian region of the size of the EU. That region extends from Lucknow and Patna to Vizag and Chennai. Another aspect of this concerns China itself which sees slowing growth of 5% in 2026. Growth could slow further as US, European Union and India/Japan push back on Chinese exports during a period of reindustrialization in US, EU, Japan and rapid industrial development in India to 2040. China's development is only midway in terms of per capita GNP which lags most of Europe and the US, Japan. Thus the main concern in China is that China will not be able top go beyond middle income country as its demographics and aging population look more like Japan's over the period 2026-2040. China needs the US EU trade and markets for it to meet the needs and aspirations of its 1.4 billon people as the other engines of development such as housing construction, infrastructure building, have lost momentum. ...

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Justin Lahart offers these clues to a puzzle why is the US unemployment rate stable when no one is hiring? The 2025 US economic growth rate shows strong economic growth, the stock market is robust, and the unemployment rate is low, yet this is not reflected in the job market. What accounts for weak hiring? WSJ analysis shows that for US job market 2026- quit rate is too low at 3.2 million  (Dec 2025) instead of 4.5 million (March 2022), hiring is low at 5.3 million. And overall firms are not laying off people which is reflected in unemployment rate at 4.4%. As a result even with strong economic fundamentals the hiring is at low levels and opportunities for new jobs scarce. In previous years more people quit jobs, more people were laid off and some firms continued hiring. There is also uncertainty about tariffs that may be playing a part- companies can wait and see how the tariffs policy works out over the next 6 monthsand delay hiring. Ai may be another factor for some firms as they evaluate its impact on their hiring needs. Research at the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute shows that immigration crack down on entry into the US after Biden era surge means less people from overseas to hire and less from the pool of immigrants. A striking piece of this research is that instead of 140,000 jobs needed a month to keep the unemployment rate stable in 2024 the US economy now needs in 2026 after immigration crackdown only 15,000 jobs a month.  ...

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Le Monde reports from Havana Cuba in 2026- 2 million people have left since 2021, the situation is looking increasingly hopeless. There is the 800,000 called the "walking generation" that walked to th southern border of the US during the Biden administration 2020-2024, How did this happen the country of Cuba losing so many people, a third of its population? In 1960 it was 7.1 million. Taking Mexico as an example Mexico's population was 37 million in 1960, it is now 133 million up threefold. At the same rate Cuba's today would be about 20 million in 2026, today it is about 10 million. Instead of 20 million it is half that. About 3 million left the country and population growth simply stopped as the country went from crisis to crisis. Was the revolution worth it, were people in Europe, the US and Latin America who looked to Cuba as a model completely mistaken and was the story oversold to the point where someone like Chavez would try to bring that revolution to a developed economy such as Venezuela as late as 1998, when Cuba was already without US cooperation a state that had fallen behind, by 2026 it was like going back in time 50 years. Could the US offer something better to these countries in the western hemisphere. Did Kennedy JFK promise so much in 1960 and did later US administrations leave Cuba  in a state where it would not get foreign investment and be sanctioned and blocked from access to new technology in so many ways. There is much to reflect on the failure of Cuba, the story of glorious narrative that was told that overlooks the poor condition of the country and benefitted the people the least.  ...

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India's economy growth rate was 8.2% in the third quarter 2025 up from 7.8% in second quarter of 2025. GDP reached $4.18 trillion, projected to reach $7.3 trillion in 2030. This make it the fourth largest economy in the world ahead of Japan, and projected to overtake Germany for third position by 2028. A quarter of the population of 1.4 billion people or 350 million people are between 10 years and 26 years age. GDP per capita is at $2700 lower than Japan at $32,000 and Germany at $56,000. India suffered from lack of ambitious targets, leaks in development budget from corrupt practices, a weak governance during the early period after independence in 1947-2000. Over a 15 year period starting with the first government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999-2004 and with the Modi government in 2014-2026  the political system has evolved for stable responsible governance and no leaks in the development budget, ambitious targets. When the first Modi government took office the country was ready for a surge in deveopment and modernization following the example of the Modi state government in Gujarat which started in 2001. After the failures of the Congress government 2004-2014, Modi took office in the midst of a wave of support for rapid modernization. The first decade has laid the foundations 2014-2025 and the second decade 2025-2035 is a period of rapid growth that should enable India to catch up with China. ...

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Higher exports and lower imports boosted GDP growth by 1.59%, higher investment in equipment and AI related intellectual property investments, and consumer spending on healthcare services, pushed US GDP up to 4.5% for third quarter 2025. The annual rate of growth was pushed up to 2.5% matching the 2.4% growth in GDP for 2024 under the Biden administration. As the benefits of the rebuilding of American manufacturing, the benefits of the rapid depreciation of equipment and plant investments under the BIg Beautiful Bill are still in the future the GDP number is expected to be higher for 2025 and 2026. The formula for GDP estimates is to take total domestic spending and minus imports which are part of domestic spending in the US on imports, and to add the exports number, as these are goods produced in the US. An administration such as DJT administration today that promotes US exports, takes strong action such as tariffs against unfair trade goods pushed into the US, promotes US jobs and growth, ensures fair trade prevails, and invests in the US, is far more likely to get better GDP growth and jobs growth results. ...

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By taking action in Venezuela in a way that benefits the Venezuelan people (and similar action in the long run interests of the Iranian people to dedicate most of the resources for development and increase share of oil revenues without discounting and removing sanctions ill effects on economy and quality of life) major new changes can improve quality of life in the world.  Venezuelan production which was 3 million barrels a day has declined to 900,000 without US investment and technological upgrades. With US investment this can be increased to put additional oil supplies on the market lost in the war with Iran and smaller traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. Venezuelan crude is best suited to US refineries which frees up shale oil for export to meet needs of India and Europe. China which had hyper growth through massive oil consumption would reduce its growth rate and its impact on climate change as it adjusts to the loss of 3 million barrels a day it no longer gets from Iran. Slower growth rate in China is good for the climate as it is the hyper growth of China that put the most pressure on climate even as Europe and the US had cut  fossil fuels consumption over the last decade. China made 2 coal plants a week and 95% of all new global coal construction in 2023. India needs additional oil supplies as it increases its growth rate from a much lower point of development (and electricity poverty) than China. By simply settling for normal development compared to hyper development targets( China has reached a point of Oil Fairness Percentage where each country gets to use the same percentage of oil as its population is as a percentage of world population- the number being about 17% for China for both, with the number being 18% for India and it having a shortfall of 12% based on its oil consumption being only 6% of the world total). China can reduce oil and coal consumption reducing pressure on oil prices and absorbing most of the impact from the loss of Iranian oil. China and Russia + (old Soviet territory) Canada, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, make up about 40% of the world's territorial landmass, would be large beneficiaries with improved climatic conditions from burning less coal. They are now highly developed countries and do not need hyper growth which requires China to build 2 coal plants a week and consume excessive amounts of crude oil and coal based on artificially set targets that make no sense by destroying the climate when no child in China lacks electricity to read. Marathon Philipps Valero with over half a million barrels of refining capacity for heavy Venezuelan crude can now put this to use using the imports by US of lower priced (by $9 to Brent crude) Venezuelan crude oil. In a few months of 2025 US has imported 280,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in February 2026 alone some of it going to the large Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. American oil refiners make larger margins using the Venezuelan crude than they make on light crude from shale oil producers in the US. What this does is to increase the supply of crude and refined oil products on the market as the light crude get shipped overseas to India and Europe- including countries like Spain which took in 100,000 barrels a day of shale crude from US in February 2026. ...

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To get an idea of Indian potential growth rate one can see the potential of states like Bihar and Maharashtra. Bihar state in India is where the potential for economic development is huge and growth rate of 22% for 2025-2026. Imagine a state with 130 million people in India with about 17% urbanization compared to 37% for India. Most of the development concentrated in the capital city of Patna. Other cities being Gaya near Bodh Gaya, home of the world's most important ancient Buddhist sites where Lord Buddha spent most of his life, and Bhagalpur.  The new plan is to accelerate urbanization in Bihar. After Pataliputra and Kankarbagh 11 new satellite cities are to be set up under an new plan for Bihar. Housing Minister Nitin Nabin of Bihar state says- “The new townships will include nine divisional headquarters cities, Sonepur and Sitamarhi (Sitapuram). The initiative will reduce population pressure on major cities, ensuring better basic infrastructure and scope for further expansion. Special emphasis will be laid on roads, traffic management, drainage, waste disposal, green parks, and residential areas. The nine divisional headquarters were Patna, Muzaffarpur, Bhagalpur, Gaya, Darbhanga, Munger, Saran, Saharsa and Purnia. Committees will be formed to monitor the townships’ overall development." ...

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Housing markets in US that went up with jump in demand during the pandemic, markets in Nashville, Austin, Phoenix, are now in downswing. Migration patterns turbocharged by the pandemic are now fading. Overbuilding, slowing in population growth and lack of affordability are creating  vacant office space, and unsold single family homes. From 2020 to 2022 Austin house prices jumped by 60% with very low borrowing costs,, now in 2024 they are down 11% from the peak in 2022. Demand  dropped with a surge in interest rates creating unaffordability. By 2023 home sales reached a 30 year low. even today Austin homes are seen as 35% overvalued as home prices increased at over twice the rate of per capita incomes of 22%.

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After inflation drops to 2.3% in the eurozone in December 2024 the British pound rises to 1.21 euros and 1.04 US dollars. The ECB says its decision to cut rates to 3% was a result of inflation forecasts showing a further drop in inflation to 1.9% by 2026. Growth in eurozone was also updated to 0.7% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. 

The Fed is likely to make a further interest rate cut and the Bank of England keep it steady at 4.75%.

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A boost in supply in 2024 after the pandemic squeezed supply chains is likely to increase the US growth rate by summer to 4.9%. This is not expected to increase inflation which is down to 2.8% by November 2023, because of higher productivity and higher labor participation rate. The labor participation rate has reached a high of 83.5% not reached since 2001. The Fed sees this as a temporary jump in the growth rate that does not induce inflation so that no Fed action is necessary.

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Jack Horton of BBC Verify screens the former president Trump's speech at the Republican National Convention. “Our crime rate is going up, while crime statistics all over the world are going down".  Fact: FBI data shows crime down 6% and a drop in the murder rate by 13% in 2023. For the First Quarter of 2024 crime down by 15% and recorded murder rate down 26%. "We've had the worst inflation we've ever had under this person [Biden]. I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy . We will drill, baby, drill."  Fact: Inflation went up to 9.1% from 1.4% at the end of the Trump term in the first 2 years of of the Biden Administration by June 2022. Biden and Federal Reserves Powell brought this down to 3%. Explained: This inflation jump to 9% would have happened from supply chain in China for Trump administration as well. Trump's last year was 2019 the Covid pandemic started in January the lockdown by midyear meant sharp drop in demand and little room for inflation. The concentration of supply chain in China was the cause of the surge in inflation as China shut down and restarted late into 2022 causing shortages in factory parts and supplies. Biden focused on vaccination in 2020-2021. This inflation would have happened under Trump- this concentration of supply chain started with Reagan economic philosophy to ship production (and jobs) overseas, Clinton Bush Obama and Trump did little about it. Biden invested heavily in Make in America manufacturing and jobs at home. Biden and Powell did a good job of bringing this inflation down by 2023 to 3% before the European Union and UK. Younger voters don't know this they get their news from the internet and show little interest, see only that the low inflation under Trump and the higher inflation during the pandemic recovery under Biden and blame Biden. will Trump do better on inflation in 2024-2028. The WSJ does not think so its analysis shows inflation higher under Trump than Biden because of a planned 60% tax on imports from China. Trump follows Reagan/Friedman theory of the old Republican party of higher tax cuts for the wealthy, so no money is left for investing in American manufacturing and jobs as Biden free of this theory is able to do, leading to slowing growth with inflation under Trump.        ...

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After rapid growth during 2021 home sales in the US are expected to decline by 10% in 2022, according to the National Association of Realtors. The rise of remote work and homebuyers seeking more space had pushed up sales in 2021 with low interest rates. Mortgage rates are now up to 5% in an higher interest rate environment having an impact on home sales. Higher median home prices with the median price of a home up 15% in March compared to the previous year, and 9.5% lower inventories are also having an impact.

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US economic growth for the fourth quarter 2021 was at the annual rate of 6.9%. Economic growth rate for full year 2021 was 5.5%. This is the fastest growth since 1984 when  growth followed a double dip recession and high inflation. Most of the surge in growth in 4th quarter 2021 was from companies restocking merchandise and shelves and not from people buying more stuff. Without these inventory effects growth in fourth quarter 2021 would be 1.9%, according to the Commerce Department. Sales of durable goods, of cars refrigerators, actually fell in December.

For the current quarter, the first quarter of 2022, forecasts show growth will slow to 2%.

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Experts see strong growth in jobs in 2022. Employers added 431,000 jobs in March. This is the 11th straight month of job gains of over 400,000, the longest period of such growth since 1939. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, approaching the low unemployment rate of 3.5% in February 2020, just before the pandemic.

Low unemployment rate is boosting wages but not as much to keep up with inflation. The easing pandemic is also encouraging people to seek jobs. Many retirees are also coming back, and so are women. With 300,000 women joining the workforce in March 2022.

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With continued job growth the US Fed is planning to continue its sequential interest rate increases. The Fed raised interest rates 0.75% at each of the last 3 Fed meetings and a fourth 0.75 rate increase is expected when it meets on November 1-2, 2022. This is the most rapid rate of increases since the 1980's and it is designed to bring inflation under control.

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DJT calls for 10% cap on credit card interest for affordability crisis for US families. Most of the credit card companies in the US base these operations in places without usury laws such as Nevada, and charge exorbitant rates on credit cards, a practice that is going on for 6 decades since the 1960's. It makes it harder for families to get out of poverty and living from paycheck to paycheck. It is another aspect of the affordability crisis. Democrats have never raised this up for action. “Please be informed that we will no longer let the American Public be ‘ripped off’ by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more,” the president says he wants the cap to start Jan. 20, 2026 If this happens it will be a big win for the American people and end a decades long usury type business in credit cards that violates the idea on which the US was founded of opportunity for all and access to credit as critical in making this happen. Interest rates of 30% are a way to reduce social mobility in the way a feudal order once did in the years before the Modern World and the Scientific Revolution. A society without social mobility is one in decline can be seen in the way Spain went into decline after 1700 and Britain emerged to lead the Modern World and the Industrial Revolution. This is the crisis America faces today- change or cede leadership to China or some other nation. It is about this not the capitalist system or other system as many like to portray it, and Adam Smith was all about growth and social mobility that were part of his system which today is sadly forgotten, yet needs to be bravely put forward. ...

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The US Federal's half percentage point interest rate cut bodes well for stocks and bonds in the US, says this report in WSJ, as it reduces the burden of interest rates on small business that has a part of its debt in floating rates. The default risk component of rates also shrinks for large and small companies. A lot depends on how much the US is investing in manufacturing, in chips and science, in education, in infrastructure that reduces the costs to business and in its industries, which is the ultimate driver of growth. In this sense the Biden administration and Jerome Powell's Fed have accomplished a remarkable deal in the difficult period of the pandemic's four years 2020-2024. Much remains to be done yet this is a big deal, and the next president can leverage these strengths to set the US on the right path, the Way Forward for America.

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The US added 167,000 jobs in July 2023 from a month earlier, according to the Labor Department, less than 200,000 anticipated. Higher population numbers and higher labor force participation rates offset the increasing  number of retired people in the US. More people added to the population from immigration and more younger people participating in prime age under 54. This means the US is where it would like to be with the Fed not having to increase rates that much in coming months, says Justin Lahart of WSJ. The Labor Department increased its estimates of population by 867,000, and the labour force participation for prime age is up to 84%. These are good signals for the US economy, that there is room for more jobs growth and income growth with an unemployment rate at 3.5%, and less need for increasing interest rates by the Fed.

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US public companies, manufacturers and retailers that make up more than half of the S&P 500 index, came out with strong sales per share of 24% increase in 2022 over 2019. This means slower growth is expected ahead in 2023, says Justin Lahart in the WSJ.  The shift to consuming more services such as dentist visits and tourism from buying washing machines and appliances will mean slower sales for these large companies that are manufacturers and retailers. Fed chairman Jay Powell's higher interest rates will also limit growth in sales in 2023. Overall the US economy may barely skirt a recession, and this depends on which forecaster one talks to.

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US had jobs growth of 336,000 in September 2023. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8%. It is below 4% for 2 years and this is the 33rd month of jobs growth. As jobs growth takes place under president Biden, 13.9 million jobs created, the inflation rate is also declining. Americans had $4 trillion in checkable deposits (checking, savings and money market accounts) in 2023 compared to about $1 trillion in 2019. Hiring numbers were updated by the Labor Department showing 119,000 more jobs added in July and August 2023. 

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Financial markets are pricing in 2 quarter point percentage interest rate cuts from Bank of England. But the weaker economic outlook could lead to 4 such cuts creating more room for Labour's Budget as it struggles to fight austerity spending, meet aspirations for better public services and infrastructure and still be seen as responsible in spending goals.  In September 2023 analysts referred to the mini-Truss British budget and the speed with which borrowing costs increased for England as the "moron premium." As debt servicing costs increase in 2025 and less optimism about growth, there is concern that the 9.9 billion reserve that Rachel Reeves had planned after balancing day to day spending with tax receipts to 2029-30 would disappear. The Labour Budget had planned on about 105 billion pounds as debt servicing cost for 2.6 trillion pounds in UK debt as indicated by Office of Budget Responsibility. The 30 year yield is up to 5.3% in Jan 2025 and this could erase the 9.9 billion reserve with higher interest costs. The situation is different from Truss but will need to be watched carefully. ...

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The speed with which GST revenues grow in India will determine the pace of industrial development, infrastructure building, and exports growth in India. It is the main source of government revenues and plays a role similar to what land sales played in China's rapid development over two decades.  States that generate the maximum GST reflect the industrial and commercial activity of the state in the overall context of India's growth. This is why Maharashtra with the commercial capital Mumbai plays an important role with Gujarat and its commercial capital Ahmedabad. Both states formed the industrial core of the country under the British Empire as one state called Bombay state. Maharashtra today makes up 15% of the country's GST revenue with Gujarat coming in close to Karnataka at third. Maharashtra at 2.7 lakh crores for 2022-2023, Gujarat at 1.1 lakh crores and Karnataka at 1.2 lakh crores. Karnataka has the IT capital of India in Bangalore now called Bengaluru. The compound annual growth rate of Maharashtra is 12.3% for the five years to 2022-2023 and for Gujarat 11.8%, Karnataka 11.7%. During the last year Maharashtra GST grew at 24%. National compound annual growth rate for GST tax collections is 11.3%. These states all have state and federal governments aligned for maximum effort in infrastructure and logistics development through allocation of capital, land, human resources, and other inputs. Tamilnadu comes next with 11% growth with the state capital of Madras or Chennai. These were the main commercial centres under the British. Bangalore emerged after independence in 1947 as the center for IT industries. To repeat the kind of development acceleration seen one after another in Japan, South Korea and China, and learning from their experience particularly the climate change and pollution negative aspects of the Chinese experience, India needs the accelerated growth at these rates for GST to finance growth in investments. It also needs to increase the quality of these investments by paying attention to negatives such as pollution and climate change through government regulation of activities that create these negative aspects.  ...