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Kingsley of the NYT provides an indepth series of reports on Turkey. Here he describes the tensions and dissension in Turkish society for teachers, refugees, government officials, students and others, and the difficult choices as Turkey faces a referendum in April 2017 on whether to grant more powers to the presidency under Erdogan.

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GDP expanded at 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Turkey Statistics Office. This follows a contraction by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016. For the full year the GDP growth is 2.9 percent, a decline from the 6.1% in 2015. In 2015 Turkey gained from lower oil prices. This was offset in 2016 by the politics in the region- the increased instability in the country following a crackdown on the opposition and media, internal conflict in the Kurdish region which appeared for a time to be leading to peaceful settlement. As a result tourism revenues declined by 30% and this was offset by increased government spending. The uncertainty before the referendum also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

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This NYT report by Patrick Kingsley shows how the hopes for peace with Kurds in Turkey under the Erdogan government have faded. By 2015 peace talks faltered with Kurdish separatist groups. Kingsley's report shows towns such as Sirnak and Cizre in the southeastern part of Turkey are now ghost towns after government troops and tanks moved in. This means that Turkey not only has about 3 million refugees from Syria and Iraq fleeing the war there, but also large numbers of refugees in Kurdish areas inside Turkey. Added to this are the tensions between the party of prime minister Erdogan and the opposition, following a crackdown and as the referendum for granting new powers to the presidency under Mr. Erdogan approaches.

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The Iraqi army moves against Kurdish Peshmerga in northern Iraq after taking Raqqa from ISIS and Kirkuk from the Kurds. The fragile peace between the autonomous Kurdish region and the central government in Iraq broke down after the Kurdistan autonomous government held a referendum in all Kurdish controlled regions in Iraq, including parts taken from ISIS. The Kurds held the referendum for an independent state on Sept 25, 2017. This puts the U.S. in a difficult position as it supported the Kurds against ISIS, when the Iraqi army was disorganized in 2015-2016. Turkey also opposes the Kurds move for an independent state that could include parts of Turkey.

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Though the numbers are relatively small about 450 migrants crossing in small boats to Britain, the strong response shows the political sensitivity to border crossing in Britain. Britain called on the Royal Navy to patrol the waters in the English Channel. This comes at a time when the issue of Brexit is dividing Britons. The Brexit referendum Leave vote benefitted from pictures of the migrant crossings into Europe from the Mediterranean. Placed on buses these posters were very effective in promoting the Leave campaign, even though at the time  the migration shown taking place was not into Britain but on the borders of Turkey, Greece, Hungary and Germany. 

 

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France and Algeria see improving relations as a necessity and Macron visits Algeria on the 60th anniversary of its independence. About half a million civilians and soldiers died in the Algerian civil war that ended in 1962, 400,000 Algerians. Algerian estimates are higher. It was a trauma for France and for Algeria. De Gaulle pushed through Algerian independence against fierce opposition by 1962 using a referendum, with many assasination attempts on his life. Macron called for "looking back at the past with humility," to look back at the history long before the arrival of the French, and archives from both nations will be put together for an objective account of what happened. Macron has said that Algerians simply focused their hatred on French occupation since 1830 and Turkey whitewashed its own occupation of Algeria before 1830. The Ottoman Turks set up the Regency of Algiers in 1525 after defeating Spanish-Moroccan armies and Turks controlled the region till the French took over in 1830.  Macron says Algeria's identity as a separate nation was set only after French rule. ...

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The Syrian war started with Arab Spring in 2011 and a popular uprising against the rule by a Alawite minority that came to power in a coup staged by the elder Assad in 1970, says this report on the civil war in Syria. The war dragged out over a decade with the northwest in the control of Kurds, and groups backed by Turkey. Groups backed by Turkey which want to restore Syria to its national origins before the current regime took Homs, Aleppo and Damascus in a week as Iran and Russia withdrew from the country following the war in Ukraine and the Israel conflict with Iran. The US has only a small presence in the country to protect against terrorist groups. One of the effects of the conflict is the flow of migrants to Europe through Hungary into Austria and into Germany during the Merkel years. The opposition to migration that led to the CDU's decline in popularity and to Brexit in Britain started with this flow of migration from North Africa and the Middle East conflicts emerging out of the Arab Spring. In Britain the migration was also from Poland and countries in Eastern Europe.  This led to Reform UK and the Brexit referendum. In the US it led to the Border becoming a major issue in 2016 with migrant surge from Mexico in the last years of Obama's second term.  The collapse of the Venezuelan economy, economic troubles in central America led to another surge in migration in 2021-2023 from these countries making the Border a major issue in the US in 2024, and giving DJT a second term in office in 2025.   ...

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This editorial in the NYT on May 23, 2015, says the government of president Erdogan is continuing its suppression of the media in Turkey before the parliamentary elections in June 2015. In the last parliamentary elections in 2015 Mr. Erdogan's AKP party won 326 seats, 4 short of the three fifths majority needed to have a referendum on a proposed change to the constitution. The editorial points out that the actions against the media only weaken the fragile fabric of democracy in Turkey following a decade of the AKP in power, when the country needs to have an open debate on competing economic and social policies put forward by different parties.

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Efforts by the government of prime minister Erdogan to keep Turkey's interest rates at the same rate as inflation, with an effective real interest rate of zero. Erdogan strikes out at what he calls the "higher interest rate lobby." Erdogan's party fears a downturn in the Turkish economy could affect the government's referendum on a new constitution. The IMF sees a high credit growth to GDP ratio as a warning light for countries and Turkey is identified as one of the main countries facing this problem.

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Turkey's prime minister Erdogan wins a third term. He wins half of the vote and gets 325 seats in parliament. But he fails to get the 330 seats in parliament needed to make changes to the constitution and submit it to a referendum. This also falls short of the 367 absolute majority to get a new constitution adopted by parliament without a referendum. WSJ says the Turkish prime minister appeared to get the message from Turkish voters- any change in the constitution should be done by national consensus and he needs to soften his authoritarian edges. In accepting the results he said: "We'll go to the opposition and we'll seek consultation and consensus. The responsibility has risen and so has our humility." Erogan's party gets credit for managing the economy, increasing exports fourfold in the last ten years and tripling per capita income. This also comes at a critical time in the Middle East as Turkey seeks to provide a role model for Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, Iraq and other countries in the Middle East becoming free from dictatorial rule and trying to establish democracy....

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This editorial in the Wall Street Journal says the U.S. presidential election in 2016 now looks like a referendum on safety after the Paris attacks. Rand Paul's chances are seen as nill because his policies, says the Journal, most resemble U.S. president Obama's. Hillary Clinton's comments about the need to defeat not just contain terrorism are seen as distancing herself from Mr. Obama, but the situation in Libya is seen as happening under her watch. The WSJ editorial lists a long list of the situations it has warned against in 2012-2015 since the Arab Spring led to the current situation in Syria, Iraq and Libya, the millions of refugees in camps in Jordan and Turkey, and the refugee movement to Europe.

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Turkey's constitutional amendment to centralize powers in the office of the president was approved by 51.2% of voters with 48.8% voters saying "no." About 85% of 55 million eligible voters voted in the election. It was seen as not offering a level playing field for opposition parties to organize and have freedom of assembly, after action taken by the president against the media and opposition following the coup attempt in 2016. The opposition Republican Party says about 2.5 million votes may have been compromised. Also showing the wide split in the country between urban and rural, a majority of voters from the largest cities of Istanbul and Ankara voted against expanding the president's powers. The constitutional amendment now becomes effective in Nov. 2019 after new elections. Turkey's electoral boards are adminstered by judges, yet the integrity of the system of justice has suffered from the dismissal of about one third of all judges since July 2016.

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Patrick Kingsley of the NYT provides this report from Turkey. He talks to the wife of a journalist jailed in the recent crackdown on media by president Erdogan. He also talks to a loyalist of Erdogan, a muhtar, who says he resisted army troops during a coup attempt. Beyond the different perspectives on events is a different conception of Turkey, one that sees Turkey in the sense of a liberal democracy with European values, and the other of a Islamic society with nationalist views. Views that coexisted in Turkey's subconscious mind upto this time, but are now in conflict. 

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Kingsley of the NYT provides this report from Turkey describing the impact of the conflict with the Kurds inside and outside the country.

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Fisher and Taub of the NYT look at the populist politics in Europe and the U.S. following the French election first round. Trump won in the U.S. with the deep polarization of politics in the U.S.- leading to the Republican Party to decide to support him to avoid the result of four more years of an administration led by Democrats, and with the support of discontented voters in midwestern states with falling living standards. The situation in Europe is different as the mainstream parties have united in the past to block populist politicians with negative messages on immigration and an open economy. This happened in the Dutch election, by the co-opting of the nationalist message of populist politicians by mainstream parties and mainstream politicians, and is likely to continue in the French and German elections in 2017. Fisher and Taub point to another development that is happening- shifting the debate to ethnonationalism vs. open economies, which has happened with Brexit and the UK Independence Party. They cite the 2015 British elections in which UKIP won 13 percent of the vote, as having influenced prime minister Cameron to call for a referendum on Brexit, in a effort to revive the fortunes of the Conservative Party. In the end this resulted in the 52 percent vote supporting Brexit.  Another way of looking at the populist movement is that with Trump it called attention to trade and the way working class Americans were being marginalized especially in the industrial midwest. With this problem being addressed in a Trump administration and a reviving economy, the mainstream parties have an opportunity to reassert themselves. In Europe the AfD called attention to immigration issues, and the Merkel coalition government of CDU and SPD by making changes such as the deal with Turkey, and returning economic refugees, is able to assert the role of mainstream parties. In Britain the situation could be a result of a brash decision by a Conservative prime minister Cameron, in making a bad miscalculation, that has put Britain on a course that is likely not in its best interest. The Brexit referendum yes vote galvanized opinion by showing an endless stream of refugees in their advertising- a development following the opening of borders by Germany and Austria to address the plight of Syrian war refugees. That situation has passed and is unlikely to happen again as both the SPD and CDU parties in Germany have pointed out that this was a one time situation that they responded to following the exodus from Keleti rail station in Hungary under special circumstances. With this kind of perspective populist politics can be seen as reflecting other voices in a democracy, that are heard and responded to, yet keeping the sense of balance and openness necessary in today's global economy and societies. This is also the perception of Germany's outgoing popular president Gauck in his final address, pointing to the need to listen to other voices in a democracy, and the need for openness in a democracy, as well as democracies always in the process of Becoming and evolving to adapt to new situations in economy, society, and politics.     ...

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In all elections since 2002 Mr. Erdogan has prevailed except June 2015. Much of the support for Erdogan is a result of economic gains by Turkey including 70% rise in per capita incomes since 2003.  These gains are under threat now because of heavy dependence on foreign investment and the decline of the currency Lira from 2.15 to the dollar in 2014 to 4.50 to the dollar in June 2018, losing half its value since the election of 2014. Experts say recent developments in Turkey have dented investor confidence, with investors uncertain about Mr. Erdogan's plans. The presidential candidate most likely to face Erdogan in a runoff election if Mr. Erdogan does not get 50% of the vote on June 24 is Mr. Muharrem Ince. Ince says he sees a wind of change, saying Turks are "very tired of this one-man regime" and that unlike before the economic trouble is so severe and harder to cover. This time the opposition is better coordinated and the secular CHP Party which was once dominant after Ataturk, is running in an alliance with traditional Islamist party Saadet, and with new secular nationalist Iyi party. Erdogan has called early elections a year and half ahead of time because he sees the economic troubles are at an early stage and his AKP Party would do better now than in 18 months when the economy may be in worse shape than it is now. ...

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Interviews by Robett Pollock with Iraq's Maliki and Turkey's Erdogan, and what they have to say about the future of 2 places in the Middle East that the US has a lot to do with. Erdogan proposes a new constitution for Turkey that will go to a referendum to the Turkish people. He won 47% of the vote for this party in recent elections.

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One of the problems facing the Republican People's Party, the CHP, is how to connect with religious voters. CHP is the party that is most closely associated with modern Turkey's founder, Kemal Ataturk. CHP was the main party in Turkey till the recent dominance of the AKP Party in elections. AKP drew support from the more religious and rural population in the parts of Turkey outside cities such as Ankara and Istanbul. CHP rarely identified itself with street protest and remained aloof from ordinary people making it hard for it to contest elections against the AKP - winning Ankara and Istanbul but losing the elections in the last decade. The AKP also allied itself with Turkey's Ottoman heritage and appealed to nationalist sentiment against a conservative aloof CHP leading to a split in Turkey between the secular urban and the religious minded more rural people. CHP also did not work with minorities such as the Kurds to build a broader coalition. This is changing with the march from Ankara to Istanbul led by CHP leader Kilicdaroglu. The march came after the justice system appeared to be allied with president Erdogan, and a 25 year sentence was given to one of Kilicdaroglu's deputies. Erdogan now appoints the judges in the judiciary and the crackdown on the opposition since the failed coup of 2016, has led to a sense that Turkey is now run as a one party state. An estimated 1.5 million Turks participated in the rally in Istanbul, according to DW, showing that the opposition is forming to the arbitrary rule since the emergency powers assumed by the president. For the last decade Erdogan and the AKP Party formed the government. What changed since 2016 is the new constitution that gives new powers to the president and the arbitrary rule since the crackdown on the opposition that intensified after 2014, and which has increased since the failed coup in 2016.  ...

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Government GDP figures show the GDP shrank by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015, the first such contraction in the economy since 2009. Household consumption was down 3.2%. The sharp decline in the value of the lira by 20% in 2016 makes imports costlier, in an economy dependent on consumption spending and tourism for higher GDP growth. Political uncertainty with instability in Turkey following a crackdown on opposition and media also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

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The eight member panel of experts led by a retired judge gets high marks from the youth movement, and all oppositon parties. All have a good grasp of the legal theory to build a good system of democratic processes with checks and balances and necessary protections. The chief of the panel, Tareq-el-Bishri, is a retired senior judge, and an author of a book titled: "Egypt: Between Disobedience and Decay." Bishri wants to see prosecutions done in civilian courts, and wants a balance of power between government institutions. Members of the Youth Movement say they encouraged military leaders to setup the tasks of writing a new constitution in several steps, the first being rewriting the key articles and holding an up or down referendum. It was felt that a better constitution would emerge once elections were held, and enough time and debate could occur for the new constitution.

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The Egyptian military announced the names of a eight member Constitutional Committee. The committee will be given the task of rewriting six articles of the constitution. These articles relate to presidential term limits, judicial oversight of elections, and parts related to curbing the president's powers to amend the constitution and restrict civil liberties, including sending civilians to military tribunals. The committee is asked to come up with recommended rewriting of these articles in 10 days. Reports say the constitutional changes will then be put to a popular referendum. The committee will be led by Tareq al-Bishry, who is a retired judge and a prominent historian. Mr Bishry and a Cairo University law professor, Atef al-Bana, are thought to be followers of a modern Islamic school of thought. Other members are Sobhi Saleh, a popular member of the Muslim Brotherhood who represented Alexandria in parliament from 2005 to 2010. About the selection of the committee, Abdel Yousef, a senior official of ElBaradei's National Association for Change, says the names are a good sign from the military. See the heart rending account of Sobhi Saleh and a prison set on fire from which he makes his way out after his arrest during the protests. The account is by Nicholas Kulish in the New York Times, Feb 4, 2011....

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The Biblioteca Alexandrina, as a symbol of the new Egypt. This library dates back to classical antiquity. Youths formed a human cordon to protect the new library during the weeks of protests in Alexandria. The library's director, Ismail Serageldin, says the people love the library and protect it. He says the library is revising its work program to operate from now on as the focal point for the promotion of reform and civil liberties. In 2002, the library opened with a soaring structure designed by the Norwegian architectural firm Snohetta. It was funded by Unesco, the Egyptian government and other Arab countries, Mr Serageldin says the library is spreading the values of democracy, pluralism, freedom of expression, tolerance, diversity, which he is hoping is taking root in the younger generation. The library had 1.5 million visitors and 700 events in 2010. It has 4 museums, a planetarium, a children's science center, a library for the blind and 8 research institutes. It holds 1.6 million books, including a gift of 500,000 books from the Bibliotheque Nationale de France. The library has access to 50,000 electronic journals, and houses an archive of every page on the internet. We taught a lot of the kids who are demonstrating and protesting how to use the internet and how to use social media, and he is glad it has been put to good use, says the chief librarian, Sohair Wastawy. Wastawy is now dean of libraries at Illinois State University. Debate at the library has been open and and annual confernece is held by its Arab Reform Forum to promote human rights and civil society. A website is run to facilitate communication between Arab NGO's. Vartan Gregorian, a trustee of the library, who formerly headed the New York Public Library, says Serageldin has been a marvelous defendor of freedom and scientific thought....

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On February 11, 2011, the day Mubarak leaves office, Mohamed ElBaradei, has this to say in the New York Times. ElBaradei won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005, and headed the International Atomic Energy Agency. He says the only thing to fear for Egyptians and the international community is the shadow of a repressive past. He sees the rebirth of Egypt as representing the hope of a new era in which Arab society, Muslim culture and the Middle East, are no longer seen through the lens of war and radicalism, but as contributors to the forward march of humanity, modernized by advanced science and technology, enriching society by its diversity of art and culture. To get this process started he calls for a three member presidential council with one member from the military, and a transitional government of national unity to run the country. Its first tasks would be to dissolve the Parliament, abolish the old constitution, replace it with a provisional constitution. The primary job of the new interim governmet and presidential council would be to set in motion the process to turn Egypt into a free and democratic society. The first step for that process would be drafting a democratic constitution to be put to a referendum, and preparing for free and fair presidential elections within one year....