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DJT on Iran and the midterms-  "voters understand that" about Iran not having a nuclear weapon and calls for Saudis, Qatar, Pakistan, Oman, Turkey, to sign the Abraham Accords. He says the electon results in some states May 26 showed Republicans and much of the Nation with large majorities for candidates endorsed by DJT- voters understand the president's policy to not let Iran go for a nuclear weapon. This WSJ report cites concerns of Republicans about the midterms yet as soon as it appeared that the president was about to reach a  deal that would be similar to Obama's- that failed and financed Iran's third effort for nuclear weapons- over the weekend, as soon as this appeared to be the course many Republicans and the WSJ Editorial Board, said this was a bad idea. The president paused that effort. At a Cabinet meeting DJT said  about the Arab states signing the Abraham Accords- the Saudis and Qatar, Oman, Turkey,Jordan, “I think they owe that to us to be honest.”  “I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign." On Iran getting funds from the US which could go right into making a nuclear weapons program again as it did after the Obama administration did this, DJT had this to say- “We’re not talking about any easing of sanctions, no giving money. When they behave properly…we’ll let them have their money.” Repeatedly at campaign events and rallies across the country for 10 years DJT has said Obama made a serious mistake in handing over funds that were put right into building a nuclear weapons program with a ballistic weapons program, for a third time. This has happened before in North Korea. Obama allowed 11 tons of uranium enriched at 20% to be shipped to Russia- that did not stop Iran from a new nuclear weapons program and a threat to Israel. There is also considerable Republican skepticism about any deal that does not remove nuclear weapons. About sending the Iranian uranium to Russia or China DJT said- “No. That would not make me comfortable.”  About Iran's economy DJT said inflation is "at 250% "and they are negotiating on fumes." DJT calls it a "conflict" (the blockade not committing US troops) and not an open ended war. ...

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At this point in May (May 22, 2026) a glimmer of hope appears for settling both the crisis in Hormuz and the Ukraine war. Pakistan, Turkey and China following DJT visit to China may be pushing Iran to lower the scale of the conflict. China's first priority was to be accepted by the US at the Beijing meeting as an equal power with the US, and keen to show its willingness to bear responsibility for peaceful resolution in conflict zones as a sign of its maturity as a world power. Much of this is not shown in the media as it is mostly done behind the scenes in communications that the media knows nothing about. Note that even in the depths of the Cold War during the Hungarian revolution of 1956 and Soviet action in Budapest, the US and the Soviets when their economies were not intertwined as the US and China are today, were still talking to each other to limit the conflicts to low level conflict. Hong Kong takeover, China's actions near Taiwan, China's presence in Latin America, Chinese cooperation with Iran, and Russia on Ukraine, China's economic competition in rare earths, are relatively smaller levels of friction considering 1950's Soviet's and the US. At the same time China and the Us are aware of a new bloc emerging in Oslo in May, where India is merging its economy with the Nordic economies of Sweden, Denmark and Norway, and of the European Union and Germany, creating a new bloc of 2 billion people that can only grow rapidly with India's potential to exceed growth rates of 20% in the 600 million Eastern region for a decade. EU would make the shift to strategic partnership with India displacing the vital role the European Union has played in China's growth and economy. This would create new pressures for Russian president Putin to decide it is time to listen to a friend India and de-escalate lower the level of conflict with an initial peace deal that would lead to more talks on a final settlement. Because Russia would have a harder time tackling both India and Germany at the same time. NYT shows on the same day May 22 a report on Russia and a report by the Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Sonegard that say the elites in Russia and Putin were by January 2026 having very serious discussion to change the administration, bring Igor Sechin as negotiaor to end the Ukraine conflict before serious, possibly irreversible damage, to the Russian economy. Sweden's Sonegard says that between 2020 and 2024 Russian economy declined by 8%, not grew by 13% as official figures show, inflation is much higher than 5% as official figures show, and credit is tightening, bankruptcies expected, growth even with oil prices up down to 0.4% for 2026. During 20 years running Russia Putin's No. 1 priority, his life's mission was to restore, then exceed by a large margin the living standards of the Russian people. Having at such great cost accomplished the goal of gaining recognition as a Northern Power in Europe, having gained much of Russian speaking eastern Ukraine, Putin could wisely with self respect wind down Ukraine conflict for good. The US gains something similar to Northern Power status for Russia in its recommitment to the Monroe Doctrine, with Russia withdrawing from any involvement- and China tacitly doing the same-  in the western hemisphere. With that the US can tackle its own losses that match Russian losses in lives- loss of more American lives than in the Korean and Vietnam and WWI combined to drug smuggling from Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, and restoring rule of law in Cuba, Venezuela, and through drug cartel free Mexico good governance in Mexico.  ...

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Turkey's inflation rate continues to rise even after a government effort in December to stabilize the economy by stabilizing the lira. Annual inflation jumped from 21% in November to 36% in December, according to the Turkey Statistical Institute. The true inflation rate could be much higher. The ENAGrup estimate after assessing thousands of prices is that true annual inflation is 82%. Ordinary Turks have difficulty affording essential food supplies, says this WSJ report. Turkey has overdependence on the US dollar in its government and bank borrowings which has intensified the impact of the cost increases world wide with the supply chain problems and higher energy prices. Food imports now are much costlier. Depreciation of the lira currency by about 50% added to the impact of the overall global inflation. The lira has come back a bit to 40% loss of value after an unorthodox government plan, yet inflation continues to rise. Deeper problems within the economy that were hidden when the economy was in high growth years are now apparent as the world sees an inflationary surge during the second year of the pandemic. ...

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The future both of Turkey and Europe at stake in the elections in Turkey. Turkey has been hit by inflation of over 60%, a severe earthquake, difficult relations with the EU and the US, a lack of foreign investment. The mayoral elections in Ankara and Istanbul went to opposition parties. A civil servant is heading the opposition parties contesting the election with Mr. Erdogan who has led Turkey for 2 decades.

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Russian shadow fleet and about 80% of Russian oil now sanctioned after US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil- Feb 2026. This is putting more oil onto a fleeet of vessels operating under Comoros, Sierra Leone and third nation flags, or even two flags, which the Americans and Europeans are tracking and diverting. Russia seeks to put this oil on an alternative tanker fleet it owns and which is insured by Russia, that goes from the Baltic and Black seas to the Mediterranean to refineries in Turkey, India and China. What thsi does is increases risks for Russia in shipping and for the Euroepans and Americans when ships fly Russian flags with military convoy. The overall effect of cutting Russian oil exports in addition to India committing to buy American oil and Venezuelan oil instead of Russian oil in its trade agreement with US, is that Russian economy may be in risky territory. Inflation is higher than official 6 percent at 16% interest rates, and this increases the risk. Budget needs within Russia may not be met as this continues. It is in Russia's interest now to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, now that the US has moved away from NATO/Europe to peaceful cooperation with Russia and competition with China. ...

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Turkey faces a economic crisis driven by high inflation and sharp decline of over 40% in the lira. The ENAgrup research group estimates inflation at 58% in November over the prior year, higher than the 22% official figures. ENAGrup estimates 50% inflation in October and 45% inflation in September. The steep inflation say experts is a result of an unconventional policy of president Erdogan to lower interest rates by 2%. In contrast the Russian central bank increased interest rates by about 3%, Brazil's central bank by about 6%. This report looks at two weak links for the lira and inflation prospects with graphs.  One is that the debt of Turkish banks is heavily in foreign currency debt with $82 billion due in next 12 months. A weak lira makes it harder to pay off these debts. Turkey's central bank net foreign assets taking into account all foreign currency liabilities is a negative $48 billion in Oct 2021, according to graphs shown in WSJ. The second is that Turkey's people are fleeing the lira. Nearly 60% of banking deposits are now in foreign currencies, according to data from Capital Economics. A sudden surge in requests to withdraw dollars by Turkish residents could make banks to draw down their foreign currency reserves. The government hopes that increase in exports could help Turkey in the crisis yet the situation today as shown by WSJ suggests a continuation of the current crisis of spiraling inflation and large drops in the lira's value. ...

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Argentina has faced repeated bouts of very high inflation. In this episode it joins countries such as Turkey, Sri Lanka, Ghana and others.

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Two popular mayors today run the two largest cities in Turkey- Istanbul and Ankara. The two mayors Imamoglu and Yavas are part of the campaign of Republican People's party head Kilcdaroglu, which has a real opportunity to provide a new government in Turkey following the disastrous earthquake and high inflation in the economy. This would also strengthen NATO during a period following Russian invasion of Ukraine and bring Turkey closer to its historical relations with the US and EU.

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The economic crisis in Turkey in 2022 wiped out half of the value of the lira. Inflation surged. The war in Ukraine hurt Turkey as it is dependent on Ukraine for grain supplies. The surge in fuel prices and the weaker currency meant higher inflation and more of its scarce foreign reserves going to imports of oil and gas. Net foreign reserves dropped to $6 billion in July, coming back up to $26 billion by December 2022.  President Erdogan maintained close relations with Russia to have access to  Russian oil and gas. Turkey has increased exports to Russia by 45% including clothing, household appliances and electronics. Russia is considering postponement of $20 billion owed for natural gas imports. And Russia transferred $5 billion to Turkey in July for a nuclear plant, with $10 billion expected later on. This helps cover the more than $100 billion the Turkish central bank used in 2022 to support the currency Lira. Erdogan's foreign policy has been to act as an intermediary in a UN negotiation for opening the Black Sea shipments of grain from Ukraine and fertilizer exports from Russia. This helps Arab countries in North Africa including Egypt which depend on Ukraine for vital grain supplies.  Everything Erdogan does says a former foreign minister is designed to push up his poll ratings which have risen about 5 percentage points from a low of about 39% in January of 2022 to about 44%. Inflation at 57% in Jan 2023 is still hurting ordinary people in Turkey and the outcome of the May 2023 election after 20 years of Erdogan in power is uncertain.  ...

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High inflation and depreciating currencies in India, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa in 2012-2014.

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Young people in Turkey are troubled by many things says this DW video report. DW.com talks with young people on the streets of Istanbul. Young people are troubled by the cost of living with inflation out of control, with not being able to speak their mind, with the waning prospects with many unemployed. Kilicdaroglu, a civil servant who leads the Republican party founded by Ataturk in 1923, offers Turkey a new path with the western alliance and the nations of Europe and the US.

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The Fed's interest rate policies to fight inflation have increased the return on US assets vs overseas emerging market countries such as Brazil and India. US Treasurys now offer 2% return after inflation. This means investors shy away from emerging markets as the extra yield offered by emerging market country bonds is diminishing. This reduces inflow of investment into countries from Turkey to Brazil. Higher rates also increase the value of the dollar vs other currencies including that of China and India, Brazil, Mexico. This means it is costlier for other countries to buy goods priced in dollars (India, Mexico)  or service dollar denominated debts (Argentina or Turkey). Where countries had raised rates to fight inflation this means central banks have less room to cut rates to stimulate their economies. This also happens as China's growth of 5% in 2023 as it has high debt and little room for stimulus measures, reduces any growth in countries in Latin America or Africa that export commodities from copper and iron to other materials. ...

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Kemal Kilicdaroglu is the leader of the Republican PHP party of Kemal Ataturk, who built modern Turkey after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. He was a civil servant for 30 years and headed the social security administration. Kilicdaroglu campaigns in a modest way with videos made in his kitchen in a big contrast to Mr. Erdogan. Since losing the election for Istanbul in 2009 and 2014 he has lost 2 presidential elections to Mr. Erdogan during the period of economic growth in Turkey. He now heads an alliance of 6 parties that includes popular mayors of Istanbul and Ankara. With inflation at over 50%, Turkey seen as stalling strengthening of NATO by blocking Sweden's membership, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the earthquake leaving over 50,000 people dead in Turkey and the government seen as having allowed substandard construction in Turkey, there is a sense that Turkey is ready for a new government. Kilicdaroglu says he will restore the parliamentary system, and restore independence of the judiciary, central bank and foreign ministry if he wins.    ...

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Turkey's elections for parliament and for president are on May 14, 2023. President Erdogan is running again after two decades in power. Turkey faces high inflation of over 57% which has created a serious cost of living crisis in Turkey. Erdogan has issued a wide range of stimulus measures- energy subsidies, a doubling of the minimum wage, pension increases, and a chance for 2 million retirees to retire immediately. A kilogram of tomatoes used to cost 8-10 liras and now costs 25 liras. Rents are going up with steep increases. Turkey has been hit hard by the war in Ukraine as it depends on Ukraine for grain supplies. A popular mayor of Istabul Ekrem Imamoglu from the Opposition is shown here as an alternative for president. Erdogan started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul with the military opposing him. His management of the economy helped him win two terms as president, which is now in a severe crisis.

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Food inflation is affecting a wide range of countries not just poor countries. Even in the US where on average only 7% of the income of households goes to food, for poor and lower income households this can go up to over 30%. In Turkey with a high inflation rate of 80% in June over prior year, the problems of food inflation are severe. Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and other Arab countries get most of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia through Black Sea ports. Across Asia the situation varies with less food inflation in countries that are self sufficient in food production such as China, India and Vietnam, to countries such as Sri Lanka where inflation is severe and takes up most of the budget for ordinary families. Lebanon is an extreme example with the collapse of its economy and 332% inflation with food inflation severe. Ethiopians spend about 45% of income on food. Somalia faces drought conditions and severe food shortages. This part of Africa is the most fragile and most prone to breakdown. Being self sufficient in food was an important goal for countries that faced famine in the past such as China and India- this has produced good results. Even in Europe small countries that make their own food with agriculture getting importance such as France and Switzerland the benefits are immense. Switzerland food inflation is as low as 1.5% lowest in the world. Where as in Africa this importance of agriculture has been neglected the consequences are seen today. In Latin America Argentina and Brazil are exporters of soyabeans and other food. This helps insulate them from the worst effects of the food crisis.     ...

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Michaelson and Narli show that Erdogan remains popular even in earthquake hit areas in this report in The Guardian from Kahramanmaras, Turkey. A report in the NYT shows Erdogan at rallies in rural provinces and smaller cities across Turkey, citing poetry, invoking God, and staying on the campaign trail. Erdogan won two thirds of the vote in Sivas one of the founding places for the revolution under Mustafa Kemal that made Turkey an independent nation largely out of Anatolian province. The main base of Mustafa Kemal in 1923 the year of the founding of the Turkish nation with the Treaty of Lausanne was in Ankara. This was under the banner of the Republican party which is now in the opposition with the mayors of Ankara and Istanbul from this party. Both the opposition and Erdogan face a difficult time ahead whoever wins as inflation is at 40% and the cost of living crisis remains a difficult challenge for any government.

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The contrast between Erdogan and a modest humble civil servant Kilicdaroglu is shown here in FR24. Kilicdaroglu is from the CHP or Republican party setup by Kemal Ataturk. Ataturk founded the party in Ankara after the colonial powers took over Istanbul by 1921 following victory in World War I and planned to breakup the Ottoman Empire. To resist this plan Ataturk responded similar to Japan by forming a new country based on the model of European nations and introduced a new alphabet to increase literacy. He took the country back to its European roots before the Ottomans in the 16th century and turned the Hagia Sophia into a museum. In the process rural people in the Anatolian heartland were not fully integrated by the 1960's and Erdogan appealed to these people, increased social mobility and incomes in Turkey between 2001 and 2018. In the period since then Turkey is faced with an economic crisis and rampant inflation that hurt ordinary Turkish people. The pandemic and earthquake made things worse. This is why Turkey is poised for a change and the Republican party hopes to build the Turkey of Ataturk with Turkey firmly seen as a European nation, with some changes that respect the right to wear scarves for women. For just the earthquake alone Turkey needs $90 billion for reconstruction and there are changes that are needed that would integrate the Turkish economy with the expanding economy of the US and the EU which can take place under Kilidaroglu and the new mayors of both Istanbul and Turkey who are deputy leaders of the CHP Republican party. ...

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Heavy foreign borrowings from Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, help sustain the Turkish economy in 2022. Private companies reduce their non lira borrowings after dollar borrowings became unsustainable. Inflation reaching a high of 80% is likely to ease in 2023 to 20% in line with global inflation in other countries. Turkey's current account deficit is about 0.3 billion in November, down from 2.9 billion the prior month as global energy prices decline. The dollar is coming down from its peak and central banks are expected to bring rates down with slowing inflation. The net international reserves have reached $23 billion. A 60% drop in the currency has increased tourism revenues. Mr. Erdogan is likely to run again for president in 2023, which will be his last run for the presidency. 

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WSJ reports from Pakistan, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil show the effects of inflation in the price of grains, oil, cereals, other essential food supplies, and oil in these countries. In Beirut the price of flour is up 1000%. In Kenya bread prices are up 40%. In Indonesia the government has put price controls on cooking oil. In Brazil Petrobras increased oil prices by 19%. In Turkey a sharp increase in the price of sunflower oil caused panic buying. In Uganda price of vegetable oil has doubled, and wheat up 25%. Russia and Ukraine supply one third of the cereal exports in the world and 52% of the sunflower oil. Higher fertilizer prices are a problem for farmers as Russia is the largest producer of fertilizer. Increase in wheat prices are an acute problem for Turkey which imports over 80% of wheat supplies and Egypt which imports 70%. Overall World Bank officials say this could be a problem as bad as the coronavirus pandemic itself. ...

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The Turkish lira drops sharply on November 23, by 18%. This is likely to worsen inflation that is already at 20% in 2021. This also makes it harder for businesses to pay off foreign currency debt. President Erdogan is following an unconventional policy of cutting interest rates when the currency value is declining. The Turkish central bank is cutting its key policy interest rate. Growth and investment are expected to be affected as foreign investors move away from Turkey. 

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The UN-Turkey arranged Black Sea corridor has enabled shipping of Ukraine grain to poor countries and countries depending on such supplies to feed their people. About 1 million tons were shipped in August and in one week to Sept 4 another 1 million tons were shipped. Russia says only small shipments are going to the poor or poorest countries. The figures provided by Ukraine are as follows:  54 vessels to Asia carrying 1 million metric tons of foodgrains 16 vessels to Africa carrying 469,000 metric tons. 32 vessels to Europe carrying 853,000 metric tons. Turkey is the largest recipient according to UN data. Also receiving largest shipments are Iran, South Korea and Egypt. EU makes up 23% according to UN data. Un says the first shipments were for the backlog of ships trapped in Black Sea ports that could not leave after the invasion in February of Ukraine. These are determined by international markets for grain. The UN says priority will be given to shipments to poor countries once a steady flow of ships from Black Sea ports takes place. Turkey which arranged the shipments and is closes to the Black Sea ports and Egypt have depended on Ukraine for grain supplies and rising inflation had become a major problem in the two countries. The two are also some of the most populated countries in the region. Turkey for this reason has a major interest in keeping this route open.   ...

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The lower oil prices in 2015 helps lower the current account deficit, which reached 7.9% in 2013, to 5% projected for 2015. Inflation is projected at 6.8%. GDP growth of 3.5% is expected for 2015. Turkey imports oil amounting to about 6% of GDP making for a large impact. Weakness is in the area of manufacturing, as Turkey's high tech exports are only 2% of manufactured exports, according to the Economist. About 1% of Turkish students have advanced computer skills. With problems in Brazil and Russia, money flowing into emerging markets is giving Turkey a second look after the emerging markets crisis in early 2014, when the lira slumped and interest rates had to be increased. The economy is recovering in 2015 from that situation. Two major beneficiaries of lower oil prices in emerging markets are India and Turkey in 2015, as both economies struggled with a large oil import bill.

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Tom Wheeldon in FR24 describes the importance of cultural issues such as women wearing headscarves in Turkish elections that are important in the Anatolian heartland away from Istanbul. Kilicdaroglu is handling this issue by supporting the right of women to wear headscarves. This puts more focus on the issue of inflation at over 50%, a cost of living crisis, and the handling of the earthquake, as Erdogan looks for a repeat of his previous election wins. If elected Kilicdaroglu will take Turkey back to a parliamentary system and rule by a civil servant who is modest and plans to serve for only one term.