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Guardian Analysis of the situation of Pakistan and Afghanistan in Feb 2026 as war breaks out between the two neighbors. 

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This article by Saeed Shah and Syed Hasan describes the Taliban factions from the tribal areas that control parts of Karachi, Pakistan's main commercial city on the Arabian Sea. It provides a detailed map showing the outlying areas around the city centre, especially the shantytown areas and the areas with Pashtun majority population controlled by Taliban with roots in the tribal areas. The Taliban charge taxes and adminster law in the areas they control. A major operation was launched since Sept. 2013 by the Sharif government to free this key city of Pakistan from Taliban control and the wave of kidnappings, extortion and other violence from Taliban members. About 168 police officers have been killed in the efforts to control the city, but areas under Taliban control are still hard to patrol by government police and special Ranger force. Karachi anxiously awaits the result of peace talks of the Sharif government with Taliban. If the talks fail and an operation is launched against Taliban in tribal areas the repercussions will be felt in Karachi. Shah and Hasan provide a excellent picture of the tribal loyalties, religious extremism and entrenched culture of violent activity that extends from the border tribal regions of Pakistan into the commercial centres such as Karachi that is a vexing problem for the Sharif administration, police, business and ordinary citizens....

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The U.S. under president Trump ends the 18 year long war with an agreement signed in Qatar between the U.S. and the Taliban. The Taliban are required to fight all forms of terrorism in Afghanistan as part of the agreement. In the first phase of the withdrawal of American troops, a third of the 12,000 American troops will be withdrawn with a similar reduction of NATO forces. This ends a costly war that cost about 1 trillion dollars and acted as a distraction from major problems in America such as aging infrastructure, and problems related to health, education and other services. President Trump was clear about his perception of America's role during a New Delhi news conference. America could not act in a police role for other states and regions, he said.

President Trump has secured support of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and India for the agreement to bring peace to the region.

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Preident Karzai of Afghanistan joins the three way peace talks of the U.S. and Afghanistan's government with the Taliban, with the cooperation of Pakistan.

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President Trump cancels a summit meeting with the Taliban and Afghan leaders at Camp David planned for this week as a step forward in ongoing peace talks to end the war in Afghanistan. The Taliban attacks in Kabul that killed an American soldier was the reason given for cancelling the meeting. President Trump has as one of his goals ending the war in Afghanistan that has tied up American and allied resources over two decades. The long drawn out conflict has little support in the U.S. particularly because of domestic priorities including infrastructure and the economy, and the lack of any national interests for the U.S. in foreign wars.

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The Afghan School in Kabul run by former Taliban officials for girls and boys is one of the best schools in Kabul. Boys and girls attend chemistry classes together. Taliban officials see the schools as a bridge between madrassas and modern schools, and now accept the idea that as long as Islamic ideals are respected girls should go to school like boys. A former Taliban foreign minister- of the government the U.S. ousted under president Bush- now helps his daughter with homework. The changes in neighboring Pakistan where the government of Nawaz Sharif is pushing modern ideas and technological development are likely to push progress in Afghanistan as well- this happens as the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan. The U.S. leaves a region hungry for progress as new governments pushing technological development supported by business emerge in Pakistan and India in 2013-2014. Unfulfilled promises of economic development are at the forefront of people's minds. A transformation as large as the shift from communism in China to state run market economy and the technological and economic transformation that followed is now at its early beginnings in the region. This shift would be from religious strife and socialist structures to a market economy....

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Schmidle describes how the militancy in Pakistan's border provinces is shifting to younger people who continue fighting the old battles against America and the West. He observes the opening of a campaign office of the Islamist party, the Jamiat Ulema -e-Islam or J.I.I., from a crowded rooftop in Quetta, Baluchistan, where this party runs the provincial government. The rhetoric against the U.S. is mild compared to earlier years, as a new election approaches. In the last election the Islamist parties under the alliance Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal, won 10% of the vote with pro-Taliban sentiment running high. The MMA alliance ran two provincial governments. Now there is asplit in the Islamist parties, between the factions working within the democratic process and other factions including younger militants who are against Musharraf and elections. This comes after the shooting of Benazir Bhutto by militant Islamists.

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Q. and A. with Rohde and Keeler of the NYT on the Rohde account of being with the Taliban for 7 months.

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The prospects for direct U.S. talks with the Taliban after the planned opening of a Taliban office in Qatar. The preliminary efforts were started by U.S. special envoy for S. Asia, Richard Holbrooke. Holbrooke died in 2010, and his successor, Marc Grossman, a former ambassador to Turkey, has continued the efforts as senior representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Grossman now has a team of officials from the Defense Department, the State Department and Intelligence agencies working with him. After a decade of war, a shift in public opinion in the U.S. to domestic issues, and a withdrawal date by the international forces set for 2014, the time appears right for the negotiations that would end this war. Grossman has the backing of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in this push for a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. The recent deterioration of U.S. relations in Pakistan to a breaking point, the complex relationship between the Taliban and the Pakistan military, the growing unpopularity of the U.S. in Pakistan, the meaningless struggle with a Taliban with intrinsic links in the Pakistan military, and the fragility of the elected government in the country are other factors that may be leading the U.S. government to look at the bigger picture and grasp any opportunities towards a negotiated settlement. ...

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As the Afghanistan conflict has receded into the background in American minds and the U.S. has become more careful to avoid foreign entanglements, 80 warring factions including the Taliban and the government in Kabul are meeting for talks in Doha, in Gulf state of Qatar. The effort is designed to settle the dispute and settle on an Islamic legal system for anew post war country that bases itself on Islamic values, yet ensures women's rights within the framework of Islamic values. There is an explicit urgency to shed some of the bitterness and the scars from the war once and for all.

Germany's migration crisis was made worse by economic migration from Afghanistan and North Africa in addition to the migration from war torn areas. Germany is now hosting these meetings along with Qatar, understanding the effects of such conflicts reach well beyond distant lands.

 

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The government of Hamid Karzi released Mr Dastagir from jail 2 months ago even though he was aTaliban commander in an area near Turkmenistan. This fuels feeling among ordinary Afghan people that the corrupt or criminal can get themselves out of jail. In this case the tribal elders who advocated his release may themselves have faced threats from the Taliban and argued for his release. He was killed in a US pinpoint bombing raid.

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Detailed account of who the Taliban leaders in Afghanistan and Pakistan are, their manner and tactics. The situation now on the ground with the Taliban and their statements and strategy.

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A U.S. drone strike kills Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan leader Hakimullah Mehsud in the North Waziristan tribal area near the Afghan border on Nov. 2, 2013. It also takes out several of his closest aides. This follows the arrest in Afghanistan of his deputy chief, Latif Mehsud leaving a power vacuum in the TTP. The government of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan opposes drone strikes publicly because of the unpopularity of the strikes in Pakistan. Yet this week Pakistan interior minister speaking in parliament disclosed that only about 67 civilians had died in drone strikes that killed 2160 militants. Because Mehsud was an extremely violent leader in the TTP and remained a threat to the government and army in Pakistan, this may be seen inside the government and army with relief so that a new chapter can be turned for Pakistan that focuses on development efforts, something that Pakistan prime minister Nawas Sharif was elected to accomplish in his term in office. This may also be a positive step for a peaceful transition in the region following U.S. withdrawal, and for peace talks mediated by Britain's prime minister Cameron between Pakistan and Afghanistan....

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The Paris based think tank International Council for Security and Development says in a report that the Taliban now have apermanent presence in 72% of the contry and are now encircling the capital Kabul, and attacking 4 roads leading to the capital. This will certainly make things difficult for Obama as he takes office in January as the economic crisis will take a lot of attention while at the same time additional troops and military support will come into an Afghanistan that is mostly in the hands of the Taliban and with Kabul region in danger.

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Proof from American soldiers, who captured Taliban arms in an ambush in the Korangal Valley of Afghanistan, shows American arms sent to Afghanistan find their way through corrupt police or officials to the Taliban. This would keep the Taliban well supplied and increase the intensity of the fighting.

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The attack against the ill trained and ill equiped Pakistan poilce forces in the Punjab and across the country. It also resembles the attacks against police forces and suicide bombings by insurgents in Iraq. The police force of 167,000 recruits the same way as it did during the times of the British rule, which is to take poorly educated recruits and train them to protect the ruling elites and maintain order. THe Punjab police officer in charge of logistics says the force has only 80% of the weapons needed for the 167,000 men. Because police officers take bribes routinely they are also not like by the public, whereas the terrorists act like pious Muslims and mix with the people. The terrorists by contrast are very well equiped and trained making the police no match for them. Making things worse the terrorist groups that were supported by the Inter Services Intelligence or ISI of Pakistan and encouraged to operate against India are now coordinating actions in Pakistan with the Taliban. These terrorists have even more training and equipment than the Taliban, operating in places like Kashmir fighting the Indian military....

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Dexter Filkins says corruption in the Afghan government may prove more dangerous than the Taliban. Western officials may say is alright and have low expectations, but this may not be true for the ordinary Afghan people. Filkins points to this as a reason for the people turning to the Taliban.