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Nicola Sturgeon of the Scottish National Party wins a vote in the Scottish parliament by a 10 vote margin with the help of the Scottish Greens to request  a vote on a referendum around Spring 2019. The British government is likely to agree to a referendum, but on its own timing after Brexit negotiations are completed and Britain leaves the European Union. Scottish voters by a large margin rejected Brexit. This has put England at odds with Scotland, risking a breakup of the union between Scotland and England setup by Acts of the parliaments of the two countries in 1707.

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A big win for the US and a win-win for the European Union in the sense that it brings stability to the trade relationship. For the US it brings a level playing field in world trade that had suffered fo far too long from unfair advantages taken by Japan, Canada, European Union and other nations, in addition to the serious distortions of the world trade system with China's state version of capitalism financing an export model. So the first step was to straighten out the situation with partners and allies the US has supported in the past 75 years. US European Union Trade Agreement is reached July 27, 2025, at meeting between Von Der Leyen of Eu and DJT of the US in Scotland. It includes $750 billion EU purchases over 3 years of US oil and gas, LNG, nuclear fuel, semiconductors, etc and $650 billion in investments in US, including military purchases. It puts a 15% tariff on all products from the EU entering the US, replaces the tariff of about 5% under Biden. On Pharmaceuticals it is what the US president decides says Leyen, though for now it is included.  The EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefovic says- “I think that what was most important for us was to make sure we would have this predictability and we would have stability for our businesses." ...

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The long and bruising process of exiting the European Union for Britain is being seen across EUrope as a lesson. Marie Le Pen in France and Salvini in Italy have dropped ideas of France or Italy leaving the EU. Nationalist politicians are now shifting to a new agenda of reforming the European Union from within. Voters are being reassured by politicians that it is best to remain inside the European Union. Chancellor Merkel has carefully guided the European Union through this crisis, first through the eurozone financial crisis, then through a period of migration to Europe from war torn Middle Easter and African countries, and more recently with president Macron of France facing the effort to get Britain to leave the EU. After Boris Johnson's win in British elections with 44% of the vote Britain now faces the difficult choice especially for hard line Brexiters such as Mr. Jacob-Lees Moog and Johnson, to either accept European rules, regulations and standards over which it has little control or lose market access to the EU. There is also the issue of Scotland which favors being inside the EU and a Scottish independence referendum. ...

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The European Union response to Britain's decision to begin negotiations to leave the EU is a tough one that presents serious problems for Britain. EU Council president, Donald Tusk said that no talks on Britain's future trading relationship with the EU could take place till all the issues relating to Britain leaving have been resolved. Included is a bill of 60 billion euros, according to European authorites, for settling British committments in the EU. Tusk also said the EU wanted to see the rights of the 3 million EU citizens living in the EU, and the 1 million British citizens in the EU protected as a priority in negotiations. Without negotiations on a future trading relationship Britain faces tariffs and duties putting it at a disadvantage after the exit. Talks also cannot extend beyond March 2019 or new approval is needed from 27 EU states. The European parliament also has veto rights if the agreement is not seen as strong enough for the EU. Tusk says that Brexit has made the EU more united. Chancellor Merkel of Gemany has also separated exit from future trading relationship negotiations, the second only being discussed after the first is complete. The issue of Scottish independence also hangs in the balance, as the Scottish parliamentary leader Jack Salmond refused to accept prime minister May's point that her own constituency Islington had voted against Brexit yet she was negotiating for the whole of UK- Salmond responded in parliament that not taking Scotland's interests into account after it had voted against Brexit made "Scottish independence inevitable." The EU leaders are taking a calmer approach, in contrast to the more nationalist appeal in parliament to Tory back benches of prime minister May with promises she may have difficulty keeping.   ...

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As the August 1 deadline approached first the Japanese and then the Europeans who held out till the end sometimes treating the US with disdain and ridicule, realized that the US was dead serious about tariffs. Even the US business community tended to treat DJT tariffs with disdain not realizing that the tariff battles were first fought against Japan by Deputy USTR Robert Lighthizer under Reagan in the 1980's always to get a fair deal for the US. The recalcitrance of the Europeans and the Japanese can be understood by the non tariff barriers Japan placed on US products and the 10% tariff on US autos the European Union had in place for decades when the US only had a 2.5% tariff on German car imports.  The media in the US and Europe has utterly failed to tell the US side of the story. Here at Lyrarc we remain committed to bring out all the facts so that readers can better understand both sides. Initially the EU adopted an adversarial approach as shown in this report in WSJ by Kim Mackrael and Brian Schwartz. How is it that the Europeans and the Japanese took such a position when since 1980 there was no level playing field for the US on world trade clear for all to see? Not till late May as negotiations dragged on did Japan and the EU take stock of their own positions, DJT having to say US would impose a 50% tariff to get the EU to understand, saying "our discussions with them are going nowhere." In the end in Scotland Leyen and Sefovic for the EU accepted 15% tariff on EU imports to US. Akazawa of Japan had accepted this the week before. ...

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DW.com reports there is a state of uncertainty about Brexit, when it will happen, whether it will even be stalled till the next British elections in 2020. According to British newspapers the British prime minister Theresa May could wait until October 2017 before requesting exit from the European Union. There is a chaotic situation in the British government on Brexit, according to the Sunday Times. First it appeared that it would be the end of 2016 before Britian invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, initiating Britain's exit from the EU. Now it looks like the decision is put off indefinitely. The latest economic numbers from the Bank of England do not offer encouragement, showing a loss of 1% of Britain's GDP each year for the next 3 years, even after the stimulus action by the central bank. British people might just have time to reflect on this by October 2017 after elections in Germany and France, the next date that is cited for invoking Article 50 to start Brexit. German EU lawkmaker Elmar Brok has doubts. He says Britain is'nt legally bound to take action on the Brexit vote. Theresa May, the British prime minister, is committed to the union with Scotland and Northern Ireland, and it means a lot to her. Invoking Article 50 would mean Scotland's SNP would move forward with a second independence referendum. In Northern Ireland there is a first lawsuit against Brexit.  ...

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Ivan Rogers, Britain's former ambassador to the European Union says ideas about liberation are fantasies, just fantasies. There would be endless negotiation on every issue. After 2 years of negotiations most of the tough questions about Britain's future trading relations with the European Union remain unanswered.

Some just want to get on with the job, including Mrs. May. But the tough questions are not going away as a cross party group in parliament seeks to take control of the process and call for an extension under Article 50 for the March 29 deadline. In addition to the intra party divisions and lack of cooperation from the Labor party, there are doubts in Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland about future relations.

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Britain heads into a general election July 4 with a deeply dissatisfied electorate. Labour is expected to get a majority after 15 years of failed rule by the conservative party with austerity policies, failure to invest in Britain and failure to improve the lives of working people. Astonishing as it may sound 58% of the British public now want to see Britain rejoin the European Union. Much of the support in blue collar working class communities in England for the Conservatives has faded and these voters have returned to support Labor. There is also a change in the mood in Scotland favoring Labor over Scottish Nationalist party. Unlike the US Britain under Tories has failed to invest in Britain's future in renewable energy, in climate change action and in infrastructure. Standard of living and support for the health system is declining.

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Theresa May, prime minister of Britain, faced a difficult situation by Jan. 2017- the European Union was not going to budge on the free movement of people and services within the EU. With no prospects for negotiations on the migration issue and a decision to retake control of migration, May announced on Jan. 17, 2017, that she would pull Britain out of the single market. By Jan 2017 Theresa May was perceived in the media facing tough challenges and having no clear path, and no clear plan, and little support from the civil service, business, and within a divided Conservative party, to implement Brexit. This has not changed much even with this decision, as the additional hurdle of getting Scotland, Ireland and Wales, and the close to 50% of the people who voted against Brexit to support this move remains as large as ever, the situation of ample uncertainty, for May and for Britain.

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Britain's Labor Party leader makes a speech favoring strong Britain- EU relations in an effort to attract support from pro-EU Conservatives in parliament and bring about early elections. Corbyn says he favors Britain's membership in the EU customs union putting pressure on prime minister Theresa May who favors Britain leaving the EU customs union so it can strike free trade deals on its own. A thin majority in parliament for Theresa May means this issue could lead to a parliamentary defeat and early elections.  The other facet of this is that the delicate peace process in Northern Ireland could be upset by having a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which is part of the European Union. Irish peace process and the views of the Republic of Ireland and of Scotland would be respected with the Corbyn approach. Other benefits are keeping good trade relations with the EU intact because 44% of Britain's exports go to the EU and 50% of Britain's imports are from the EU. ...

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Boris Johnson wins an 80 seat majority for the Conservatives in parliament in the 2019 election. He gets a mandate for a quick exit from the European Union by the end of January 2020, and billions of dollars in public spending on infrastructure, the NHS, and public services. He gets an unexpected 364 seats in parliament after winning the support of working class voters hurt by the financial crisis and by industrial decline. Working class voters in the north of England and the Midlands decided to trust Mr. Johnson. The Labour party won 203 seats, its lowest total since 1935.  The British pound surged to its highest level since May 2018, and domestic stocks surged with their best day since 2010. Part of the optimism stems from the size of the win that gives Johnson more flexibility at home and more leverage with the European Union to negotiate Brexit that works best for Britain. Working class areas that suffered for decades with loss of heavy industry, decaying infrastructure and poorer public services put their trust in Johnson's pledge to spend more to revive these areas. Johnson called his government "The People's Government" in his victory speech and promised to spend $131 billion on infrastructure, the National Health Service, schools, and public services. Johnson said in the speech that working class families may- "only have lent us your vote. I am humbled that you have put your trust in me, and that you have put your trust in us. And I and we will never take your support for granted." The other big event in this election is the election win in Scotland of the Scottish National party winning 80% of the seats and seeking a referendum on independence. Mr. Johnson has stated that he clearly opposes this. In Northern Ireland a majority of legislators were elected who favor unity with Ireland. This sets up a constitutional struggle that Mr. Johnson faces in his first elected term in office.   ...

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Gerry Adams of Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland says in the NYT that some way has to be found to respect the vote of 55% in Northern Ireland in favor of remaining in the European Union. He says Northern Ireland and Scotland should not be made to leave the EU because of a different preference expressed in England and Wales. He points to one of the most harmful effects of the Brexit i- the return to a hard  border between the EU state of Ireland and Northern Ireland. This will affect the economic, healthcare, tourism, business and cultural links of Ireland in the north and south, and reverses the gains of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. He calls it a result of factional infighting in the Tory party, the rise of far right anti immigrant groups such as UKIP, and the Gove faction which never really supported the peace deal in Ireland that has brought two decades of peace. Adams says concurrent referendums for a united Ireland is one solution to this problem. Another is an All Ireland forum of political parties and civic partners to meet, and for the Irish Government to stand behind the Good Friday Agreement, so that the Brexit does not hurt the interests of Ireland as a whole. ...

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Brexit and Scotland's referendum both have similar consequences economically for Britain and Scotland. This hurts both countries in unwinding relationships built over many years, unwinding 44 year membership for Britain, and 310 year union for Scotland. Britain exports to EU are 45% of total exports, and for Scotland the number is 63% for exports to the rest of the UK.  Scots benefit about 1200 British pounds more for average citizen than a average citizen of UK, and pay 400 pounds less to the government. Scotland would start with a 90% debt to GDP ratio if it takes a proportionate share of UK government debt from the beginning of independence. Fidler correctly points out the economic risks to Britain and Scotland which are being ignored or not fully taken into account by politicians.

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The win by Sinn Fein in recent Irish elections brings Ireland one step closer to reunification. A new generation does not have the memories of conflicts settled by the peace accords. Northern Ireland is also less Protestant than it was when it remained in the UK after Irish independence.  The election sidelined the old parties and was based on local issues such as housing and inequality.  Northern Ireland like Scotland voted to remain in the European Union in the Brexit referendum. Britain under Boris Johnson will face calls for referendums for independence from Scotland and Northern Ireland.

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A general strike is planned in Catalonia, Spain to protest police action preventing a referendum vote on independence called by Mr. Puigdemont, head of the state government. The government in Madrid sees the vote as illegal and could take away the regional government's powers under Article 155 of the Constitution. There are varying reports on how many people voted, with this BBC report saying that Mr. Puigdemont's estimate of 90% of people having voted is inaccurate. BBC News says turnout was relatively low at 42%, weakening Mr. Puigdemont's position. Talks are now taking place with Pedro Sanchez of the opposition Socialist party and Albert Rivera of the centrist Ciudadanos party. Mr. Puigdemont now calls for talks with the Spanish government, and mediation by the EU. The European Commission calls this an "internal matter" for Spain, that should be tackled using the Constitution. Other regions of Spain including Galicia where prime minister Rajoy comes from also suffered under the Franco dictatorship following the Civil War, including his family so that Mr. Rajoy does not represent Madrid so much as the new aspirations of the different regions in Spain to try to write a new chapter in Spanish politics. That chapter shown in a book by Mr. Rajoy on Spain's future clearly shows respect for autonomous regions as the direction for Spain. In Valencia and Catalonia one finds the regional languages used and this is respected under the Constitution. Yet the period under General Franco rankles many in Spain, more so in Catalonia and the Basque region, when the regional language could not be used. As in Scotland smaller parties that were not in government for decades now enjoy more support. Yet it is not clear that all the people of these regions want to permanently break the links with Spain or England under separatist parties that have only recently come to power. This is why the European Union is reticent on this issue.  ...

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This leader in The Economist magazine says a hard Brexit of the sort announced by Theresa May at a Conservative Party conference is clearly bad for Britain. It also point out that half of British people voted to remain. It is not clear that voters have voted for a hard Brexit, a soft Brexit, or voter alienation with elites and effects of years of austerity since the financial crisis have helped tilt the vote to Brexit. It points out that the rhetoric may be damaging Britain's chance of negotiating a Brexit that limits damage to GDP, which the Treasury estimates to be nearly twice the loss in GDP if a member of a single market as compared to leaving it. British government leaders may be overestimating the willingness of leaders of France, Germany and other countries to make concessions. By talking up to their party base politicians such as May may be putting German and French leaders to also toughen their positions on free movement as an integral principle of the European Union, and consequently of membership in a single market. ...

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Brexit Leave was only supported by a minority of Northern Ireland voters, only 44%. British prime minister May insists that the open borders established through the 1998 Good Friday Agreement will be maintained between Northern Ireland and Ireland. May met with Northern Ireland's leader, Martin McGuiness, following a meeting with Scotland's SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, to assure other parts of the UK that opposed "Leave" that their views will be respected. May says the union is very important to her, and says about the  border- "We had a common travel area between the UK and the Republic of Ireland many years before either country was a member of the European Union. Nobody wants to return to the borders of the past."

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Schmemann ponders over the situation in Spain with Catalonia and Scotland with Britain, where national identity arouses pride and there is a strong sentiment for autonomy or independence. He says the situation in Slovakia which sought its own identity and separated from Czechoslovakia, but sought an otherwise peaceful status in the EU, should not be confused with the nationalism that has aroused conflicts in other regions and periods. He puts Scots interest in autonomy or independence in this light, as simply seeking its own future in the EU, with closer attention being paid to the local interests in Scotland.

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A new poll from YouGov shows the Conservative Party getting 310 seats and Labor Party at 257 seats. Labor would gain 30 seats and Conservatives lose 20 seats under this prediction. Conservatives would fall short of the majority of 326 seats needed. Support for Theresa May is slipping especially after announcing older people would have to take on more burden for care, dubbed the dementia tax by media. A coalition of Labor party with the Scottish National party (SNP) with 50 seats and the Liberal Democrats with 10 seats is now a possibility.