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The British Council in Colombo, Ceylon, as far back as the 1960's, has shaped the founder of Lyrarc.com's knowledge of Britain in shaping the ideas of the Modern World we know today, knowledge of its parliament and democracy, that are vital in shaping society in China, India, and other nations in Asia, Latin America and Africa to this day. For this reason the closing of the British Council facilities around the world to pay a loan it had taken years ago under the Conservatives during Covid, is to be seen as a major blow. This report in The Guardian is about fears the world's leading soft power agency, which is more than that a transmitter of ideas that shape the Modern World and all our democracies in Europe and America, Asia, other parts of the world, will disappear in a decade. The Madrid building which houses the British Council in Madrid at 13 Paseo del Martinez Campos in Madrid's Chamberi district, has been put up for sale to pay Covid era debt. About 5000 Spanish students attend classes in English and prepare for exams in 35 classrooms. Over the years hundreds of thousands of Spanish people passed through this building. 320 jobs will be lost, employees with passionate dedication who it will be difficult to replace. Another center in Barcelona also is expected to close. This comes at the wrong time when Britain needs to make its voice heard in the world, when a mediocre level of British parliamentarians and leaders since Blair and David Cameron have allowed this to happen. English language classes in Italy at the British Council are also being shut down. Paris building may also be sold, and shrinking operations in the Baltic Republics, Croatia and Austria. This will be a major blow to helping spread knowledge of British parliamentary traditions, its history and participation in shaping the Modern World we know today.  It is now hoped and this is a message to Labour's Andy Burnham who studied English at Cambridge, to restore Britain's image and the value of its parliamentary and other lasting contributions to the Modern World, to the benefit of all nations, to cancel this debt and give the British Council new leadership for the next 2 decades. Neil Kinnock, a Labour leader, and a chair of the British Council says- “The British Council does not want to make these cuts. They are being forced into it by the conditions required by the Treasury." “I sympathise very much with the staff, so does the leadership,” he said. The British Council had “camped out” in the Foreign Office for last three or four years and put up a “hell of a fight”. Kinnock said: “What the government should do is either find a way of cancelling the debt, or even rescheduling the debt. Because it’s to absolutely nobody’s advantage to lose the British Council.” A desperate effort to pay an outstanding £197m debt from a Covid-era Conservative government emergency loan on commercial terms, with interest to be repaid by September, is what is causing this massive destruction of a century old institution that belongs to Europeans, to Asians, and to the world at large for better societies through knowledge. Who runs Treasury in Britain? Rachel Reeves, who has no concept of the role constructive Britons have played for two hundred years from the time the British agent at Rajkot encouraged Mohandas Gandhi (Gandhiji) to study in London in 1888, a role that the British Council has played since its founding. His name Sir Frederick Souter, who wrote the letter of recommendation for Gandhi to enter the University College, London. Sir Dingle Foot, Solicitor General of the UK, another Labour leader, played that role for a youngster of 22 years at the University of Baroda in India, for Law School at the University of London in 1969, after years of educational experience at the British Council in Colombo, Ceylon. Now the founder of Lyrarc.com. We call upon Andy Burnham to make this one of is first priorities to put Britain First, and India, other European nations, the US, to assist in this effort, to preserve one of Britain's brightest contributions in throwing light on the brave scientific, educational and industrial endeavors that built the Modern World. ...

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US Defense Spending charts as percentage of GDP since 1929 startling fact seen in this chart of Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis- that in 2026 we are seeing 1929-1937 levels of military spending to GDP ratio of 2-3% just before it jumped to 45% in 1940 in World War II. It is a cautionary tale not to spend too little (2-4% is a danger point), as lack of military modernization means a lot more spending soon after, almost 10 times that- 10 times 4% or 40%. Message to the US is not what Starmer and company are saying in Europe- it is that don't invite the existential crisis of 1940 again for western (US, EU, Canada, UK) and eastern democracies (India, Japan, Indonesia, Australia) by ignoring costs of military modernization. And 2-4% of GDP for military spending is not going to do this.

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Sophie Landrin's Le Monde report on Sri Lanka Ditwah cyclone devastation December 9 2025. Her report with pictures of the destruction wrought by the cyclone show parts of the Kandy region in the mountainous uplands in the central part of Sri Lanka, including the University of Peradeniya. There was no warning when the cyclone hit with 10,000 of 16,000 student on the campus. This is the worst cyclone to hit Sri Lanka in the last hundred years. Sri Lanka is a island nation that is Buddhist located at southern tip of India. It has been hit by a civil war, financial crisis with no central bank reserves, the pandemic, and now the cyclone. 

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Startling fact seen in this chart of Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis in the adjoining article next to this one- that in 2026 we are seeing 1929-1937 levels of military spending to GDP ratio of 2-3% just before it jumped to 45% in 1940. It is a cautionary tale not to spend too little (2-4% is a danger point) as lack of military modernization means a lot more spending soon after, almost 10 times that- 10 times 4% or 40% in World War II.  Message to the US is not what Starmer and company are saying in Europe- it is that don't invite the existential crisis of 1940 again for western (US, EU, Canada, UK) and eastern democracies (India, Japan, Indonesia, Australia) by not doing military modernization. And 2-4% of GDP for military spending is not going to be enough to do this.

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India's new bankruptcy law is a big step forward in letting credit markets function normally and drawing in new capital. The new law says the bankruptcy should be completed in 180 days after a default. Indian banks hold about $105 billion in non-performing or bad loans, according to the Reserve Bank of India. It is essential that India cope with the bad debt to attract new capital investment and increase growth. Asset reconstruction company being formed by Ambit and J.C. Flowers & Company was approved in late 2016 by the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. So far Indian banks have showed unwillingness to take a loss on the loans and take a big discount. Only $3 billion in asset reconstruction has taken place in 2016 through selling bad loans, according to Credit Suisse. Indian industry has relied heavily on bank loans and sale of stock for capital investment as the corporate bond market is undeveloped. This is about to change to finance growth, with the bankruptcy law and transparency as a first step. Larger foreign firms are teaming up with local partners to tackle distressed debt and bad loans, with locals knowledge of risks making it easier to profit from capital invested. ICICI bank won the first ruling of the new bankruptcy law by the National Company Law Tribunal against Innoventive to recover assets, providing the first test of the law. In the past such action would drag on for years, showing India is now serious about getting rid of bad loans in the banking system, and to revitalize credit markets to finance new growth. ...

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Keith Bradsher's NYT interview with Raghuram Rajan, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, comes when Rajan has come under criticism from the business sector and the small business support base of prime minister Modi's party. The criticism centers on the drop in oil prices since Nov. 2014, and Rajan's failure to drop interest rates at the Dec. 2, 2014 central bank meeting. Rajan says it was not clear whether oil prices would remain low for an extended period at the Dec. 2, 2014 meeting. Since then new inventory data, EIA estimates and OPEC policy guidance have confirmed low prices will remain for an extended period. Rajan lowered interest rates on Jan. 14, 2015, by one quarter of a percentage point. Under India's setup the central bank chief makes decisions on interest rates, compared to the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee at the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rajan says there is full understanding between the central bank and the Modi government economic team led by finance minister Arun Jaitley, Jayan Sinha, deputy minister of state for finance, and chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanium. Modi and Jaitley prefer to rely on the advice and policy direction of economic policymakers with long experience in the U.S. and international circles. Both Subramanium and Rajan bring this level of experience and expertise. Subramanium brings experience from his years at the GATT which preceded the WTO, the IMF, and the Peterson Institute of International Economics, and Rajan brings experience at the University of Chicago, and as chief economist of the IMF. Modi is a dilgent listener and policymaker giving careful attention to the best advice, making it unlikely that Rajan would be seen as a holdover from the administration of Manmohan Singh. Other criticism that the business sector has made of Rajan are as financial regulator in asking state banks to increase collateral required from large business firms for large bank loans. Rajan points out the need for business to bear the costs as well as the benefits of taking risks. Under previous governments the state banks allowed large firms to keep their holdings at companies even when the risk taking resulted in losses. Rajan has also not tried to reverse the sharp decline in the rupee, which hurts business firms which took on dollar denominated loans. Rajan has instead followed policy of building up the reserves by buying dollars. The reserves were depleted in 2013 by a policy of currency interventions to reverse that decline. Inflation in India reached 9.9% in Dec. 2013, with policy of the central bank under Rajan set to bring it down to 8% in 2014, and below 6% in 2015, so that India could get out of the trap of persistently high inflation with slow growth. This is critical for a new Indian success story. A goal set by Rajan in Oct. 2012 when he was appointed as central bank chief, was to increase foreign investment and encourage new business so that India was no longer dependent on large companies for growth. This is also critical for a new Indian success story, as the Modi administration and the central bank are both keenly aware. Just as Bernanke and now Yellen at the U.S. Fed face criticism for quantitative easing monetary policy, focus on the high long term unemployed, and not focussing on inflation- with their focus on the long term economic recovery in an environment of low inflation below 2% in the U.S.- India's Reserve Bank faces a different kind of criticism for careful and prudent policies to ensure long term growth....

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The Economist points out serious problems at India's state owned banks. Following a $21 billion or 1.3 trillion rupee bailout from the government, and a new bankruptcy law to help banks deal with bad loans, the Indian banking sector was seen as recovering. Last week (Feb. 2018) showed new problems at three of the largest state owned banks. PNB, Punjab National Bank, is faced with fradulent transactions for 114 billion rupees, about a third of its market capitalisation. A jeweller, Mr Nirav Modi, had PNB employees issue letters of credit which were then used to borrow overseas, but the credit was not shown in PNB's books. The State Bank of India, SBI, is faced with losses after tackling bad loans. The Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank and bank regulator, has taken action to have banks recognize more bad loans to clean up the banking system.  The Bank of Baroda, the third largest state owned bank, is exiting South Africa after entering that market and lending to the controversial Gupta family that is seen as having undue influence on the government of ex- president Jacob Zuma of South Africa.  These events have battered the reputation of state owned banks in India. One private lender HDFC bank alone now has market capitalization worth more than the entire state owned banks in India. State banks are worth less than net assets in the market, showing a huge credibility gap. The bad loan situation that goes back to previous governments is affecting the growth rate in India's economy and creating new pressures on the government of prime minister Modi as it faces general elections in 2019. ...

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With foreign exchange reserves of $677 billion India is well placed to deal with the effects of the Ukraine conflict. The economy is better placed than European economies, says Governor Shantikanta Das of the Indian central bank, the RBI. The RBI and the Monetary Policy Committee see no risk of stagflation in India, Mr. Das says.

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This WSJ editorial says the Indian government will have to do more to increase the growth rate. Rising inflationary pressures at 5% for core inflation are still present, with inflation in food prices running higher at 10%. Which may be the reason after a cut of 0.5%, Reserve Bank of India Governor Subbarao stated this would be all the country should expect for some time.

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Wholesale price inflation reached a 13 year high of 11% as India faces steep rises in the price of food and energy. The government's recent decision to remove some energy subsidies increased energy prices by about 10%. The central bank raised its key short term lending rate by 0.5 percentage points to 8.5% and increased the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve.

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The Indian economy is expected to grow by 8.5% this year compared to 6.5% in 2009. But a major problem looms in the high inflation facing India. The poor monsoon in 2009 led to higher prices for foodgrains, lentils, and sugar. And the government's cut in the fuel subsidies will lead to more efficient use of energy, but will lead to one additional percentage point in wholesale price inflation according to the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. The whoesale price index in India went up by 10.5% in June from the prior year, and this after a 10.1% increase in May. Bloomberg's tracking of consumer prices in the Asia-Pacific region shows India at the top of 17 countries in inflation, and consumer prices paid by industrial and farm workers in India are shown to be increasing at 14% annually. The government is coming under criticism for not releasing more grains from its stocks to soften the impact of last year's monsoon. The Manmohan Singh government finds inflation at above 10% unacceptable and is looking for further action from the central bank. Reserve Bank of India governor Subbarao has raised rates 3 times since March 2010 to 5.5%, and a further increase is expected at its next meeting on July 27. A better harvest in September, from a better monsoon season, could help lower food prices. If this does not happen, more tightening by the central bank could hurt economic growth, putting the government in a quandary....

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The Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan cut the overnight lending rate by one quarter percentage point to 7.25% on June 2, 2015.

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Banks in the US are moving away from cryptocurrency and shunning connections with the cryptocurrency business after a regulatory crackdown by the SEC and public warnings about its future. Banks are reevaluating exposure to the crypto sector no matter how small, says this WSJ report. In early 2020 the regulatory agencies were not vigilant enough about this sector which is now seen as highly risky and not for the private sector- digital currencies being the province of central banks just like the US dollar which is issued with the backing of the US government. The Federal Reserve website says about CBDC, Central Bank Digital Currency in highlighted language.- "Like existing forms of money the CBDC would enable the general public to make digital payments. As a liability of the Federal Reserve, a CBDC would be the safest digital asset available to the general public, with no associated credit or liquidity risk." It is because the US Congress failed to act and a prevailing culture of laissez faire, failure of regulatory agencies to act quickly that allows this to happen, that the private sector was allowed to dabble in what is clearly the province of central banks. Laissez faire is originally a French word meaning "allow to do" which has been taken to extremes such as letting private sector issue digital currencies in the prevailing culture. The Fed's Lael Brainard, Jay Powell, Treasury's Janet Yellen did not come out saying what the Fed's website now says and highlights that the only safe digital asset is the central bank's digital currency. Compare this with the caution taken from the beginning about crypto sector by India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman and the head of the central bank of India the RBI Mr. Shantikanta Das. ...

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The Rupee is moving close to 80 to the US dollar with increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. The IMF expects the Rupee to go past 94 to the dollar in 2029. India's Reserve Bank is interested in carefully managing the steady decline so that business decisions can be made with some measure of stability. The weaker rupee will help increase exports at a time when India's is raising its logistics capabilities and creating the capabilities on the ground that will give India a key role in the new supply chain the US and the EU are building in Asia.

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India had 11 interest rate increases in 18 months, but this has not slowed the rise of inflation. The Wholesale Price Index is around 10%. Inflation expectations as measured by the Reserve Bank of India are around 12% in mid-2011.

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India's foreign exchange reserves reached an all time high of $545 billion in October 2022. By December this had dropped to $561 billion because of the central bank RBI's effort to maintain the value of the Indian currency in relation to the US dollar. This is at Rs 81 to the the dollar in Dec 2022. India' needs healthy foreign exchange reserves to finance imports for its industrialization and investment efforts to modernize the country. Inflation is also a priority to keep the cost of living at levels that provide affordability. This is at about 5% in Dec. 2022. Finance minister Sitharaman cited this as key achievements. Including large foreign investment inflows as part of changing the supply chain to include India as a manufacturing hub for the west. This sets the stage for long term growth.

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Credit Suisse research of loans at 3,550 nonfinancial services companies in India with total borrowing of $385 billion as of March 31, 2011, shows 30% had net debt more than six times current earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. This is an increase of 50% in 5 years. Goldman Sachs estimates gross nonperforming loans including restructured debt will climb up to 6% of total loans in the next financial year. This is an increase from the 5% in March 2011. The Reserve Bank of India's stress test report of Dec. 2011 forecasts 5.8% of non-performing assets in a worst case scenario. This is twice the current level. This is largely a result of Indian banks increasing lending after the 2008 global financial crisis, with the worst affected and leveraged sectors being private airlines, construction companies, utilities and real estate developers. At the same time prudent regulation has ensured a capital to risk-weighted assets ratio according to RBI of 13.5% at the end of March 2011. This compares with the same ratio at 14.5% as of March 2010. Additional risks come from declining economic growth. Industrial output in October 2011 was down 5.1% from the prior year. ...

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India's central bank, left rates unchanged in October 2012. RBI Governor Subbarao says inflation could go above 8% by January 2013. High global oil prices and a weaker currency are adding to food price increases to push inflation higher. The RBI lowered its growth forecast to 5.8% from 6.5%. Mr Rangarajan, chairman of the Prime Minister's Advisory Council said the RBI will not lower rates till January 2013 unless there is a significant tendency for a decline in inflation before then.

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India's central bank chief, Raghuram Rajan, points to the risks for developing economies from changes in monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Indian rupee lost about a fourth of its value in 2013 as the U.S. Fed announced plans to withdraw from its quantitative easing policies. Large depreciations in other developing economies, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil, happened at the same time. Rajan and India's Reserve Bank increased the interest rate by half a percentage point in 2013 to deal with the impact on inflation as a result of the large depreciation of the rupee. The volatility of capital flows and sudden reversal in inflows of capital to developing economies leaves these countries exposed to sharp declines in economic growth. India's growth has slowed to 5%, larger than expected from the slower growth in the global economy in 2013, largely as a result of decreases in direct foreign investment and capital outflows.

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This report in DW.com presents a situation where supply of oil runs out as demand way exceeds supply as shale oils in US are depleted, and no new reserves are found. A story in WSJ last week reports that the salty water from shale oil extraction is injected back into reservoirs at a rate that creates serious problems in the Permian Basian of the US including East Texas. The IEA forecast in 2026 shows about 97 million b/d of production and demand slightly exceeding this in both 2030 and 2050 which would suggest defossilization has not taken place. Yet the US pullout from defossilization under DJT is sure to be reversed by future governments in as short as 3 years, and the current DJT policy is simply a response to the cost of living concerns of the majority of Americans. The scenario that fossil fuels will be required forever is promoted by the oil companies and by OPEC+ including Russia. But this situation will reverse as the cost of living crisis and the low wages and incomes, loss of factory jobs, low savings, health care inflation, is tackled under the DJT administration and the US economy becomes stronger with lower inflation.  This scenario of  steady oil demand can be reversed if China and India and Europe push ahead with renewable energy and technological change as is happening today, and will not be seriously impacted when the US joins the battle with its renewable energy push in 2028. This is not just an optimistic scenario, it is a balanced one as private industry in the US will sense this and move ahead with development of new technologies for renewable energy so as not to fall behind and to pioneer on their own. That is the history of innovation in the US for the last 100 years and will not change. ...

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Shaktikanta Das, a former secretary at the Department of Economic Affairs, is appointed as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank, after Mr. Urjit Patel resigns. Mr. Patel's resignation follows the resignation of Mr. Rajan, after differences with the government over bank lending, and government policies. 

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Reserve bank of India's Governor Dr. V.Y. Reddy, who was a strong regulaor and did not allow mortgage securitizations, derivatives, and increased the reserves banks had to hold in case things went wrong. He had strict rules for bank lending in the real estate industry even as a real estate bubble developed in India, all of which is keeping India's banking system in good shape as it faces the global credit crisis. Criticized at the time by bank executives for his strict no nonsense rules, he is now regarded highly by Bank CEO's in India. One of this no nonsense rules was that banks had to hold on to loans they made on their books as banks all over the world have always done in the past, because it made good sense as banks were likely to police themselves for loans they were responsible for. Vague and possibly dangerous experimentation in the name of productive change was frowned upon and the tried and tested rules were followed.

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India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, cut its cash reserve ratio by 0.75 percentage points to 4.75%. This provides banks with an additional 480 billion rupees ($9.5 billion) for banks to lend, and helps stimulate the economy. GDP growth slowed to 6.1% in the 4th quarter of 2011 after a series of rate hikes by the central bank.

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Alex Frangos and Sudeep Jain's interview with Duvvuri Subbarao, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. India's economy is slowing with higher inflation, higher interest rates, inability of the government to make firm decisions on foreign investment, a declining currency, and a growing deficit. Subbarao has come under criticism for keeping interest rates low for too long after the 2008 financial crisis, and then as higher inflation persisted making a number of interest rate increases in 2011, which reduced the credit flows in the Indian economy. Subbarao's defense of his policy of not acting earlier on interest rates and then raising interest rates repeatedly, is that the economy need stimulus in the years after the global financial crisis. He says the inflation in the early stages was a result of a supply shock in food prices and would not have responded to interest rate adjustments. Inflation declined from 9.1% in November 2011 to 7.5% in December. Subbarao says the interest rate increases are over and he is looking for the right time to increase credit flows in the economy. His remaining concerns are with the fiscal deficit, and he called on the finance minister to map out what he plans to do for the fiscal deficit. He expects the deficit for the current fiscal year to increase from 4.6% to 5.5%, as the cost of fuel subisides rises and tax receipts decline. He calls for the removal of subsidies on liquified natural gas and electricity, but concedes that this will be difficult in an election year. Looking back Subbarao sense is that the central bank's policy actions were well calibrated....

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After increasing the price of subsidized diesel, the Indian government lays out a plan to cut the deficit over five years. The plan sets a goal for the deficit of 5.3% for fiscal year ending March 2013 to come down to 3% by 2017. Earlier India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), had said the government needed to take action on the deficit before it reduced interest rates. The RBI faces a difficult task in reducing rates to stimulate the slowing economy because inflation was 7.8% in Sept. 2012. At the same time the sharp decline in growth is a cause for serious concern- the most recent RBI forecast for GDP growth made in July for the current fiscal year through March 2013 is 6.5%. This may not be achieved as other economists have lowered the estimate to as low as 5% because of slow government action in economic reforms, high interest rates, and the uncertain global economc outlook. The last action by the RBI to lower interest rates was a drop of half a percentage point in April 2012. Much of the momentum for the Indian economy was lost in the first half of 2012 with the governments vacillating steps for opening the retail and other sectors to foreign investment. Only in October 2012 has prime minister Manmohan Singh set a clear direction by dropping coalition partners opposed to reforms and announcing new policies for foreign investment....