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Youth unemployment and forced migration plays a major role in the Nepal general election. Rapper music Balendra Shah 35 years wins in parliamentary constituency over ex-PM Oli and wins the Nepal general election. He formed the RSP party to voice student protests against PM Oli's government and corruption, which was forced to resign. His goal is to generate 1.2 million jobs and double the per capital GDP from about $1500 to $3000. Nepal reflects the general jump in aspirations of youth across the Indian region. 800,000 young voters voted for the first time.

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This report in WSJ says about 70 130 members of Peru's Congress are under investigation for corruption and other charges. This has put Peru's government in crisis situation even when it has the second highest per capita number of deaths from coronavirus after Belgium.

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Alejandro Toledo is to be extradited from the US to Peru to face charges in the Odebrecht corruption scandal. Peru had many presidents over the last 7 years. Toledo was elected in 2001. Fujimori who preceded him, and Castillo are in prison in Peru.

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Nepal is a remote mountainous country with some of the highest Himalayan mountain ranges and Mt. Everest. For decades it has stagnated economically with Chinese help making little difference, Indian help more recent, and the country with per capita income of about $1500 for a population of  29 million. Neighboring India with 1.4 billion people is seeing huge increase in young people's aspirations in neighboring Indian states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh under the Modi government. Average age in Nepal is 25 years, in Bihar a neighboring state in India it is 22 years. This is affecting Nepal with the similar lack of tolerance for corrupt governments that cannot deliver on infrastructure and health/education. Urbanization is only 17% in Bihar state in India that is neighbor of Nepal and most people live in rural areas, the same is true for Nepal with 20% urbanization. Per capita income in Bihar state is $900 one third of India's $2700 per capita income, in Nepal it is $1500. Who is Balen Shah- a 35 year old structural engineer into hiphop music who is Mayor of Kathmandu, the capital. He supported the student protests against the corruption of government led by PM Oli which had to resign. His party RSD leads in two thirds of 275 parliamentary seats. Each voter gets 2 votes, one is for 165 seats on first past the post basis, and the other vote is to allocate 110 seats based on the party vote. Average age in Nepal is 25 years with 800,000 first time voters in voting population of 19 million.  ...

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Peru is one more example of how the corruption scandals surrounding Brazil's construction firm Odebrecht is affecting other countries in Latin America. A former president Alan Garcia was found dead having shot himself to prevent arrest by police in Lima, Peru. Alan Garcia was one of 4 Peruvian presidents involved in a vast Odebrecht scandal involving construction contracts, alongside Pablo Kuczynski, Ollanta Humala, Alejandro Toledo.

A judge in Lima ordered Kuczynski be on preventive custody in a money laundering investigation. PPK or Kuczynski led Peru until 2016 until resigning in March 2018 after moves to impeach him over links to Oderecht. Garcia served as president for 2 terms 1985-1990, and 2006- 2011. In Brazil the Odebrecht scandal and the scandal in oil company Petrobras led to a change in government after elections that led to a win by Mr Bolsonaro over the ruling Workers party that governed Brazil for over a decade.

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China's population drops and fertility rates drop for a decade now- the median age is 40 years for China compared to 30 for India. Those who think India can never catch up to China lose sight of these factors- a 10 year gap is huge provided India can take it and run. India is moving from a corruption prone, governance deficit, investment deficit, engineers deficit, technology access deficit country to a country that is able to score well in governance, capital, labor and technology eliminating deficits in each sector the way China did.. The younger age China enjoyed in 1990 of 25 years median age when it started industrialization is now being transferred to India in 2026. Why is this important? A younger population with abundant capital, abundant labor, abundant technology access is the ticket to industrialization on a massive scale. India today is on the cusp of massive changes. What happens now is that the computerization and software is also getting more advanced that will accelerate India's Vikshit Bharat effort. This is why Chancellor Merz joining Modi at the Kite festival and committing Germany to a partnership with India, with it the European Union, is so significant today, as it will deliver for both India and Germany, Europe. China births drop from about 10 million to about 8 million and birth rate drops from 6.77 to 5.63 births per thousand people. China population now drops to 1,405 from 1,408 million people. Deaths rose from 10.93 million to 11.31 million.   ...

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Mexico's former president Enrique Pena Nieto, 54 years, is being investigated for corruption. The former head of the oil company Pemex  Emilio Lozoya, 45 years, was arrested in February in Spain and is said to be cooperating fully with the authorites. A wide ranging inquiry was ordered by president Lopez Obrador.  Mexico's Attorney General says that Mr. Lozoya testified that he was asked to give two bribes of over 3 million dollars each to Pena's election campaign and to bribe politicians to pass legislation to open up the state sector to private investment. The money was sourced from Odebrecht a Brazilian construction company that paid hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes to build ports, bridges and stadiums all over Latin America. This shows how quickly the reputations of leaders in Latin America have changed from Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Peru. In every case it is corruption or mismanagement of the economy or both. The failure to consider the needs of people in Latin America, the hype and the pretense, show how much good sense, wisdom, hard work and honest leadership is needed.   ...

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Union Railways minister in India, Mr. Goyal, raises questions about the estimated cost of a new elevated rail train in Bombay that would cost more per kilometre than the planned bullet train between Ahmedabad and Bombay. He says this reflects corruption and lack of transparency. India has for many decades since independence been held back by corruption that has reduced much needed infrastructure development, and the goal of the new Modi government is to bring transparency and vigilance into government spending to get infrastructure development needs met in the next decade.

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Following corruption scandals in Brazil, the situation in Peru involves the company Odebrecht which figured widely in construction contracts in Brazil. Peru's Congress is opening proceedings for impeachment of President Pedro Kuczynski on charges of improper payments of $782,000 by Odebrecht to Kuczynski. The situation is not new to Peru, as amazingly the culture of "he robs but he also builds" has some roots in Latin America, only to be rejected by a growing middle class by 2017. Previous president Alejandro Toledo  was indicted by prosecutors for taking payments of $20 million from Odebrecht in the early 2000s. Former president Ollanta Humala is in jail awaiting trial. The mood is changing now even though a major problem is that other politicians in Congress in Peru and Brazil suffer from some of the same faults as the government in power.  In Peru a major sticking point is the unfinished Costa Verde project, a road in which $100 million contract was given to the Odebrect company, and $4 million in bribes given according to prosecutors. The road to the airport from the city of Lima remains unfinished, with much of the planned road to cut traffic time on congested roads is now just highway dirt. The public attitude is that they always thought the next president would "be different." Following repeated disenchantment the attitude has definitely shifted, yet one problem remains. The old set of politicians are still there in Brazil, Peru, and other countries, when a transition is needed. ...

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The goal is to invest in Britain. Tax policy is calibrated to generate 25 billion pounds from the National Employment Insurance Tax.

Reeves says she is not increasing income tax, employees’ national insurance and VAT. National Employment Insurance Tax paid by companies will go up by 1.2 percentage points, to 15%, from April next year. Threshold will come down from £9,100 per year to £5,000.

Crackdown on welfare fraud saves 4.3 billion pounds. A new Covid Corruption Commissioner for dodgy Covid contracts

6.7% increase in the minimum wage

State pensions will go up by 470 pounds.

Carers allowance to go up to 10,000 pounds a year.

5000 extra tax officers to close the tax gap, update IT, update App.

 

 

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Compare the presidential election spending in France and US one sees a huge, really huge difference. In France by law the first round it is limited to 16 million euros and second round to 22 million euros. Companies cannot donate and maximum donation is euros 4600 per year. All candidates must be given equal time by networks after official campaigns start usually March 28. If you get 5% of the presidential vote you get about 48% of the $22 million ceiling and if not only about 5%. Its a fairer system considering about $5 billion will be spent in US presidential election 2024. It keeps out lobbyists and donors looking for silent favors as the pharma industry and the tech industry in the US that has prevented any legislation on fair drug pricing or oversight of the monopolies of Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and others, taxation of profits of tech and fossil fuel companies, or passage of healthcare for all. Indian elections cost of 1.35 lakh crores or $13 billion in 2024 are also similar to the US with parties spending leading to much corruption in the democratic process and defeating its best character.  ...

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As president Jinping begins a second five year term his focus is on the small communities like Chashan, only a 6 hour drive from Beijing, that were neglected in the rush to industrialization. He has vowed to get rid of poverty in China by 2020. About 43 million people live in rural communities that have mostly older people and live on 95 cents a day. There is another challenge say experts which is the much larger popuation that lives in rural and urban areas- including urban migrants without property and residence rights- who live on less than $5.50 per day, $165 a month, according to the World Bank. This is about 1070 yuan per month, or in Indian rupees for a comparison with India- which was at a similar stage of development in 1990- of Rs 10,000 per month. About 40% of China's population or 560 million people are in this group. With a rapidly aging society as a result of the earlier one child policy, China faces the risk of not advancing from the level of a middle income country, in the way that South Korea and Japan have moved to levels similar to Western Europe and the U.S. As China's growth level slows and with an aging society this remains a major challenge. As this report shows there is great pressure on local officials to eliminate the poverty level of people living below $30 or about 200 yuan a month, as targets are set at local levels and corruption weakens the effort. There is concern at the lack of an effort to improve the living conditions of the 200 million rural migrants living in cities, who under China's "hukou" system are not considered residents and are not getting education and health benefits. ...

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The large infrastructure investments in the high speed rail network - estimated at $300 billon- have increased the debt of the railway ministry to about 5% of national GDP in the 1st quarter of 2011.The high speed rail lines are not likely to be economically viable, with revenues not enough to pay for operation and investment costs. With the higher fares it would take 9% of monthly disposable per capita income of urbanites or 555 yuan ($86) to pay for the cheapest ticket on the 300 mile Beijing-Shanghai high speed rail line. This makes high speed rail less affordable for middle and lower income people in China. The acceleration of the program in 2008 with stimulus funds and the moving up of deadlines for completion have led to corruption, stress on suppliers, and overinvestment. The program suffered from lack of good financial management and supervision in the rush to complete the program. Lack of equitable access and affordability to income groups from a majority of Chinese people have left the impression that it was for higher income groups. Higher tolls on highways and now the higher prices on highspeed rail have left the impression among ordinary Chinese that all income groups are not being served by the large infrastructure investments....

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This indepth report from the Economist looks at the damage done in 9 years of rule under Jacob Zuma, and the prospects of the African National Congress under the new leadership of Cyril Ramaphosa. The South African economy suffered under Jacob Zuma. The Zuma government hurt the government's finances, and suffered from corruption and mismanagement. Only 21% of South Africans trust their government in one poll. This indepth report also asks the question- how much has changed since the days of Apartheid South Africa? Mandela's release from prison in 1990, and the ANC party winning elections in 1994 changed South Africa into a multi cultural and multi ethnic society with democracy. A liberal constitution protects the rights of all of South Africa's communities and citizens. Share of households without electricity fell from 42% in 1996 to 10% in 2016. Black people make up 50% of the middle class. Blacks now make up more buyers of suburban homes than whites. Race relations are better today. The problem is that progress and improvement in living and economic conditions stalled after 2009 when Jacob Zuma as head of the African National Congress became president. GDP per person declined after 2013. Half of South Africans were born after the end of Apartheid in 1994. Nearly 40% of people of age 15-34 are not in work, training or education. To get into the middle class one needs a job. About 62% of South Africans would trade democracy for an unelected leader who could deliver on housing and jobs and the economy. Cyril Ramaphosa was made president and head of the ANC after a bruising struggle to oust Jacob Zuma in 2017 ANC conference. He now faces elections in May 2019. In the 1980's he led the National Union of Mineworkers. He later became secretary general of the ANC in the 1990's and led talks for democracy. Ramphosa was passed over by Mandela because of pressure within ANC to select Thabo Mbeki. Mbeki was followed by Zuma, also from ANC. Ramaphosa then joined business, as a small number of well connected black South Africans and made $450 million through preferential access to equity in large firms for a few black South Africans. Then went back to the ANC as deputy president,  then deputy president of the country. The Economist says after Zuma South Africa is running out of time, and Mr. Ramaphosa expected to win, faces many challenges, particularly youth unemployment. ...

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Andrew Jacobs provides this exceptional account of the tense atmosphere in Brazil, and the split between supporters of the government and the opposition, in April 2016 with the impeachment effort against president Rousseff.

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This report in the Economist magazine points out that income per head has gone up only 40% over 30 years of democracy and economic liberalisation. And most of the benefits from NAFTA trade agreement have gone to northern Mexico where most of the factories have been built. Southern Mexican states like Tabasco were badly neglected. Lopez Obrador's party Morena is an allusion to La Virgen Morena of Guadalupe, Mexico's patron saint, and also to a term used to describe darker skinned Mexicans. Obrador was born south of Mexico City and sees his goal as bringing industrialisation and infrastructure to the south. He vows to pave every road in Oaxaca and offer price guarantees to southern farmers. And even northerners are excited about him because of his nationalist instincts, and corruption and violence under president Pena. The disappearance of 43 student teachers in gang violence was a terrible incident in the wave of violence under president Pena which has horrified Mexicans of all classes.  Under Pena Mexico is tied with Russia in the Transparency International Corruption Index at 135th place and it is more blatant in Mexico than ever. ...

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Andrew Jacobs provides this exceptional accoount of disillusionment of ordinary people in Brazil with the corruption scandals, deep recession, and the drop in president Rousseff's popularity from 50 percent in 2014 to 16 percent in April 2016.

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President Hu Jintao at the opening of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. China's goal is to quadruple per capita GNP by 2020 compared to 2000. Population is expected to increase by 200 million people by 2020. While he described rampant corruption, the degradation ogf the environment and disparities between the urban and rural areas andbetween the coastal and interior areas as the major challlenges facing China he gave few details on how he planned to meet these challenges suggesting that not much that is new is being planned to address these challenges. He also pointed to the need for consumption driven growth moving away from the present export driven growth, but offered few details on how this would be addressed. This suggests that while Chinese leaders recognize some of the challenges facing them they may not understand the severity of these challenges as time passes or they have not the will to address them with major changes in the current model of economic growth or that the momentum of th currrent model is so great and the power is so spread out in China between different provinces and local regions in meeting economic goals of GNP growth that the central government cannot make major changes withouth the whole system losing some of its momentum and they fear that that would lead to problems that they would be even less effective in dealing with and the system could then come apart with the Communist Party being unable to direct things as the "core" leadership of the country....

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Ukraine with its rich soil used to produce 40% of the agricultural output of the Soviet Union. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 governments cbroke up the old state farms and gave plots to ordinary Ukrainians. These small landowners lacking the capital to invest usually planted small vegetable plots or let animal graze. About 55 million acres of arable land in Russia, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine remain uncultivated. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization in that region 494 million acres cultivated in 1992 dropped to only 437 million acres by 2005. Comparable figures for Brazil show that from 1992 are 128 growing to 146 million acres by 2005, and China growing from 306 to 350 million acres by 2005. The USA's figures show slight drop from 454 to 432 million acres by 2005. These 55 million acres of rich agricultural land can produce an additional 115 million metric tons of wheat per year which would be 20% of the total world production today. For this to happen this small plots have to be stitched together to form larger modern farms which can get captial investment and be run along modern lines. This is being attempted in the region by several companies. Landkom and other companies are trying to do this even though this is a difficult environment to operate in with corruption high in Ukraine and the attitude to foreign investment not always positive. With a large part of technology gains in agriculture already harnessed the search is now for more arable land to be put into cultivation....

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The slowing growth in China is reducing growth and depreciating the currencies of iron ore producing countries Brazil and Australia. China makes 50% of the world's steel and imports 1.2 billion tons of iron ore traded annually. Australia exports 80% of its iron ore to China valued at $67 billion in 2013. Brazil sends 50% of production to China. For the first time in 15 years China's steel use declined 0.3% to 500 million tons in the Jan-Aug. 2014 period. The mining companies have invested heavily in ports and railroads for expanded production. BHP CEO Mackenzie says the strategy is to maximize production because reducing production increases costs on a unit basis. The result is a decline in price from $135 a ton at the beginning of 2014 to $69.80 on Nov. 28, 2014. Prices could decline to the $50 range in 2015, according to Citigroup analysts, because of an estimated iron ore surplus of 300 million tons by 2018. As China expands recycling of older cars and washing machines to produce steel this will reduce future iron ore demand in China. JP Morgan forecast for Australia reduces GDP growth to 2.8% from 3.3% for 2015, and Brazil reduced its forecast for 2015 to 0.9% from 1.8%....

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The risks facing China of slow growth and a bubble economy as the new leadership of Xi Jinping takes over in 2012. The export model for the economy is coming to the end of its run and the new leaders have to come up with a new plan for the future. At the same time they face the interests of state owned companies, banks and local governments interested in maintaining the status quo.

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The political risk in China as the change of leadership takes place in 2012, and with the removal of Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai. The slowing of manufacturing activity and slowdown in growth expected in 2012-2014. Export growth declines to 6.8% from 14.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011. Quarterly surveys by the central bank shows demand for loans is dropping. And the HSBC purchasing managers index shows a reading of 48.1 in March, declining from 49.6% in February, showing shrinking manufacturing activity in China- anything less than 50 means contraction is taking place.