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JAPAN PM SANAE TAKAICHI VISIT TO INDIA JULY 3, 2026. Deepening of ties between Asia's 2 leading democracies and largest top 5 economies of the world with a combined population of 1.5 billon and a combined purchasing parity GDP of 27 trillion dollars about 60% of China's purchasing power GDP. With the acceleration of the Indian economy to about 8% growth and complementing Japanese capital and Indian ambition the effort will be made to close the gap with China, to establish independent resilient supply chains, and set the new course for Asia as a whole. Once the gap is closed over the next 10 years just Japan India partnership will be the size of the Chinese economy. The American and European Union economies would be the size of the Asian economies also complementing the Japan India partnership, to set a clear course for the world of nations based on the rule of law, open navigation, and peaceful cooperation for development of Africa, Asia and Latin American nations.

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Iran wants to suspend the Oman US route in Hormuz channel to control navigation- the US wants to keep it open for open seas navigation July 7 2026. 30-50 ships make it through Hormuz. US revokes Iran's oil shipment out of Hormuz as a result, and makes strikes on Iranian  missile launching facilities used to disrupt open seas navigation on the Omani side protected by the US. US tries to set back channels to IRGC military that controls Iran, but IRGC does not carry out regular ongoing talks, talking only at the pressure of the president of Iran working with Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar to convince IRGC authorites. China has reduced its need for the barrels coming out of Hormuz, may not go back to getting Hormuz barrels. UAE has found alternative routes to ship and increased supplies, Saudis doing the same. India and Japan looking for alternative sources of oil including US and Venezuelan supplies. Most of the buyers of Hormuz oil reluctant to go back to getting Hormuz barrels. In this sense the situation has changed, from when the war began. Oil prices could rise from $70 to $76 , and a bit more, but the old situation of Iran threatening oil supplies of the poorer developing countries of the world including China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, most of Asia and Latin America, African countries, countries that cannot afford oil prices of $100 is something the world does not need. And the tide is shifting to alternative supplies, conservation that adds enough barrels of oil as China and India, Japan, Germany, are doing, and the US also to some extent. By 2027 alternative supplies will have increased to pull the world out of this place called Hormuz, to where it becomes an insignificant source of unreliable supplies. ...

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Hormuz channel on July 13, 2026 -Iran Memorandum with US is meaningless as IRGC military in Iran and elected Iran government are in a power struggle. Every time the elected president confirms a ceasefire and opening of Hormuz by Iran to all shipping without tolls, the IRGC makes a show of agreeing under pressure from Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt, then next day IRGC asserts that Hormuz is closed and all shipping take place on the Iranian side only with tolls. This means Iran is shutting down the Omani side of Hormuz channel which was opened by the US. This is against international law and open navigation of the seas for shipping. The result is that the US government and DJT have lost any confidence in negotiating with the IRGC who make the decisions. The US response is to restart the naval blockade, to be paid for by tolls at 20% to pay all costs of US to ensure safety of oil tankers. The news media is taking the Iranian side which is against the poor countries freely accessing energy and oil supplies at reasonable prices (Egypt, Indonesia, Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, India and China a population of close to 4 billion people). Media does this by putting titles like "Iran is playing the long game," because of the opposition to the DJT administration by Democrats. The opposition Democrats fail to address the question about Iran having a nuclear weapon and the resulting danger to the region. DJT administration response is also to find alternative supplies to Hormuz so that India, China and other countries can meet their oil needs outside of Hormuz. As shown in Lyrarc this has already take place and China, India, Japan, cutting back its fuel use after prolific use of oil, and replacing it with renewable energy, more efficient use of energy. ...

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Internal Bank of England data showing Britain inside European Union 6-8% higher GDP and 75 billion pounds of higher exports of goods in 2025. This is the only objective assessment one can accept in judging what would be best for British workers and their families.  Also lost on the 2014 -2016 period that led to referendum on Brexit in 2016 just three years later is that it came after the 2009-2011 period for recovery from the financial crisis, the first entry of Conservatives and sharp austerity cuts in public spending by 2012, and the period of Covid that followed just 3 years after 2016 in 2019. The process of improving productivity and increasing competitiveness that could have happened, is a cost Britain suffered from Brexit becoming topic No.1, skewing priorities from reindustrializing to debate on a non priority item Brexit- with a lost decade as a result in addition to the 8% of GDP and 75 billion pounds that could add to these numbers. In this way UK lost about 10% of its GDP and 100 billion pounds of exports that without the that  additional public investment  did not happen from 2009 financial crisis, from Brexit divisiveness, followed by Covid. The result is 1.5% growth in GDP in UK compared to closer to 3% in the US. The lower growth alone can mean additional losses in exports in 2025 than are seen in numbers, and additional losses in GDP. This is the economic weakness  that hangs over Britain as it tries out a new leader in 2026. Only a bold action plan under a bold leader can reverse this decline. As shown elsewhere on these pages in Lyrarc, this is why a new leader needs to articulate a bold and well thought out plan to execute with the support of the British people. Andy Burnham has the potential to make this happen starting in 2026 over the next 5-7 years. He has to build on the work he did in the Greater Manchester region, and like Modi in India applying the lessons learned in his home state of Gujarat, step by step, year by year, build the industrial and economic capacity of Britain by 2035. It is not a feat for the timid, struggles will abound, yet it can be done with one step following the previous step in a continuous stride. In fact Burnham can now work with India to add about 1% of GDP because of the close trading relationship and centuries long synergies with India to get closer to 3% growth in GDP per year. At that point public spending and investment would rise to propel further growth. It is in the interest of every sector in Britain to pull together, the same in India, to lift these two main countries of the Commonwealth by the bootstraps. ...

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UK Reform Party has taken large donations from cryptocurrency companies. Reform leader Nigel Farage has received a 5 million pound gift from a cryptocurrency firm. What does this mean for cryptocurrency regulation in the UK as a world financial center, if Reform wins a general election and appoints the next Governor of the Bank of England when Andrew Bailey retires in 2028. This is discussed in The Guardian. The banking system of the US, UK and large countries was set up over many years and currency is only issued by a central bank with the financial backing of the nation. Cryptocurrency cannot on the basis of technology take that role without posing risks and destabilizing the financial system. The gradual splitting of society by the information economy, neglect of infrastructure, pharmaceutical pricing, banking speculation as in 2009 crisis, have been eroding some of the basic structures of democracy for the last two decades from within.  The wars in the Middle East policies, and the open borders migration policies, were effects from outside. What this has led to is counter to what one would expect. To fight open borders and the marginalization of some parts of the working class DJT Republicans have used whatever resources were available at the time in the 2024 presidential election. The cryptocurrency firms used this in opportunistic fashion to affect regulation of this currency by supporting the reelection bid of DJT in 2024 by making large donations. This has led to less regulation of cryptocurrency firms. Is this in the best interests of the Nation? Will this destabilize the banking system in ways that have happened before in the deregulation of banks before the 2009 financial crisis? In Britain a new Bank of England governor will be appointed after Andrew Bailey's term expires in 2028. Reform party in UK if elected as government would appoint the next Governor of the Bank of England. Reform's growing popularity is a result of Conservatives and Labour failing to take action on open borders, asylum hotels, and migration policy, following an ECHR code of rights that is inappropriate to such migration. What this means is that unexpected things happen as a result. Cyrptocurrency risks of destabilizing the banking system increase as a result of failure of parties on migration. This could be more destabilizing for Britain because of its role as a financial centre than the industrialized  economies such as Germany, China, and industrializing economies such as India. It poses risks in the US yet Federal Reserve Governor Walsh can exercise his own judgement about cryptocurrency and Congress can exercise oversight, the large banks can act to show the risks of destabilizing that cryptocurrency can pose. For Britain it is particularly dangerous as the US is also an industrialized power compared to Britain's focus on finance alone. Andrew Bailey can ignore lobbying by Reform Party in 2026 (Farage met with the Governor of the Bank of England), yet what happens if Reform appoints the next Governor in 2028? These are questions Britain needs to ponder. It is also why Andy Burnham is Britain's last chance to get things right on migration to the point that the British people feel good and proud of their heritage and history, British neighborhoods across the country feel safe and secure, and Britain shifts to reindustrialize its economy with partners in China and India, the European Union, and the US. A former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Sir Charlie Bean told the BBC about donations of Christopher Harbonne, who has a 13% ownership interest in cryptocurrency firm,Tether. "Stablecoins are only stable if they have the appropriate regulatory environment… But there is right now an unsurprising regulatory race to the bottom amid the potential for greater profits." He added: "When funds are coming from major shareholders of such large financial institutions, there is a clear potential conflict of interest here, for example, in the appointment of a new Bank of England governor. Transparency is one solution." ...

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China's export dependent economy with 4% decline in fixed investment Jan-May 2026 and 27% jump in exports.1 million car exports per month in June. Exports make up 20% of China's GDP. China is challenging German companies in their home markets in Europe. Domestic sales of cars are down 16% in June. What this means is that China's growth now depends on exports alone, with construction slowdown, and weak consumer spending. How does this tie into China's posture in trade with the US? It negotiated from a position of strength on rare earths not to give in to DJT tariffs yet knows the importance of trade for the Chinese economic model, importance of US and EU markets, markets worldwide. China's strategy is to shift some of the lost US sales due to tariffs to other countries in Latin America and Asia. A top priority is to keep trade with the US and European Union on a good footing, so that its exports can be absorbed. How does it affect Hormuz? For China Hormuz as an oil source is much lower in importance and China can do without Iran, it absolutely cannot do without the US and European Union to take a big part of its exports. It also does not openly say this but it also shares concerns similar to the US, on nuclear weapons in Iran. India, Japan and the EU have similar concerns. As shown in the articles on this page China has large unused oil in reserves and coal supplies, has lower oil demand at 4% growth, and is accelerating renewable energy, so that it is now importing 8.5 million barrels a day down from 12.5 million barrels a day. By doing this China puts this oil back into the world supply leading to lower oil prices. This means the world can do without the supplies from Hormuz, keep lower oil prices, and go on as before if Hormuz remains closed. The US can focus on domestic issues and its involvement in the Middle East can be limited to naval blockade which the US Navy is capable of doing. This is good for China, good for the US, and good for the World. Local governments in China, provincial authorites, pushed growth in building road, bridges, factories during the 30 year growth phase 1990-2020. In 2026 local governments with debt loads and lack of good projects for investment are a bottleneck to growth. This is the first time fixed investment is in decline, except for the years in 1961 and in 1967. The year 1961 is a result of many mistakes made by chairman of CCP, Mao, by shifting 2 million in farm labour to work in iron foundries, and the shift from private farm plots to soviet style commune farms, coupled with floods leading to 43-46 million famine deaths (1994, Chen Yizi, top advisor to CCP General Secretary Zhao Zhiyang). 1967 is the chaotic situation of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution launched by Mao. What it shows is that the China Miracle like the Japan Miracle and the German Miracle of recovery after World War II, is based on certain conditions and will enter a phase of lower growth closer to 3% like other industrialized nations over time. India and Indonesia are larger than China and will be the next growth story, which is also shown on these pages this week, with the address to the Indonesian parliament by Modi, and Indonesian president Prabovo's saying that he has studied Modi's economic changes and is copying them as there is no copyright. ...

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After UAE leaves OPEC and US increases oil production (Venezuela+), China reducing imports keeps oil prices low and keeps Hormuz closure from affecting oil prices. This has major impact on all countries that are affected by the shortage of oil as this puts more oil into the market (about 4 million barrels a day that China imported through Hormuz), and by lowering oil prices helps China as it pays less for oil it imports from other sources outside Hormuz. It also helps poor countries such as India and China, Pakistan, Philippines, Indonesia, rest of Asia, Africa and Latin America. By keeping oil prices low China also help climate change action by accelerating its renewable energy production. India and EU, US, also increase renewable energy production as a consequence of Hormuz, leading to strong climate change action. These are some of the positive side of Hormuz as the world with China leading the way learns that it is best to do without Hormuz. Though China does not say this publicly China does not want to see more nuclear weapons capable countries in volatile regions. This is true also of India, Indonesia, and EU. China  (And India) also consider it a high priority for its economy to maintain trade relations with the US. This is rarely stated in the Media today. What this means is that oil prices can be kept low as the largest nations together EU, US, China, India, Japan join together to keep oil prices low not repeating the situation during an earlier naval blockade April 13 to June 18 2026 of prices going to $125 a barrel. China has some of the largest coal reserves and oil strategic reserves in the world which make it possible for China to do this. ...

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Iran's Assembly of Experts (clerics) acting as an arbiter as a power struggle takes place between elected president Pezeshkian and the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Assembly of Experts made up of clerics and the Ayatollah as its head shift support to one faction then to the other. This is who US is talking to and negotiating with. To negotiate with Pezeshkian even when agreement is reached the next day IRGC can come out and take action to control Hormuz by knocking out ships. A Qatari ship carrying 2 million barrrels in Hormuz was hit by IRGC when Pezeshkian signaled he had reached an agreement with the US that would release $6 of $12 billion in Iranian funds in Qatar. IRGC plan is to control Hormuz, charge tolls, and raise $40 billion a year through tolls. IRGC believes it can disrupt the narrow 15 mile channel on the Omani side in violation of international law of navigation that the US wants to keep open. For the US the question is - Can you even negotiate with the entity that is Pezeshkian and the elected government when it is in a power struggle with IRGC? Can you negotiate in the context of the burial as martyr of Iran's current religious leader Ali Khamenei? And even if you negotiate, IRGC responds to close Hormuz, US restarts bombing, where does this get the US when Hormuz remains closed. The US has we show here has only one option not stated in the Media. That is to bypass and ignore Hormuz and get alternative supplies of oil and keep naval blockade at low cost. For the US and the world to generate alternative supplies to Hormuz the US works with China, India, Japan, Indonesia and European Union, Arab states, to take the following action. Get 5-6 million of the 20 billion of Hormuz barrels as day using existing and new Saudi and UAE pipelines outside of Hormuz channel, accelerating renewable energy and EV's hybrids, China doing without the 4 million barrels a day from Hormuz by cutting its oil use through energy efficiency, alternative sources of oil from Venezuela ramp up and new oil production in the US and other places in the world, using reserves and rebuilding reserve supplies, better management of the 80-90 million barrels a day of the 108 million barrels a day the world used in 2025. All of these action are taking place in the transition to a world without Hormuz for the last 60 days. ...

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Vice President Vance's attempted thaw in relations with Iran (the Memorandum) and the Iranian response in missile strikes to interrupt open navigation in Hormuz on Omani side route breaking ceasefire happens on July 8, 2026. Early on in the US strikes the focus was on Iranian underground nuclear sites with preparations for nuclear weapons. When Iran shut down the Hormuz channel to navigation the US extended this to a naval blockade. As the US bombing of military targets in Iran continued in May and June the WSJ and other media were critical of the US. DJT turned to JD Vance to get the Iranians to negotiate a ceasfire with a Memorandum of points they agreed to included a plan to have talks on nuclear issue, open up the Hormuz channel, lift American naval blockade and American sanctions to Iranian oil exports. This WSJ Editorial Board commentary says Iran has not acted on as it said it would - no talks on nuclear issue are started, and Iran launched missiles against shipping in Hormuz.  This WSJ editorial says Iran does not intend to open Hormuz or discontinue its nuclear weapons efforts. In this situation the only options for the US are to find alternative sources for oil for India and Japan, and China in tacit cooperation with the US to find alternative sources as well as make more efficient use of oil. China is now doing without the 4 million barrels it was getting from Hormuz and has decided to do without these supplies altogether. For the UAE and Saudis to find alternative routes to get most of the oil out, UAE to increase output outside of OPEC to reduce prices. All of these actions are taking place and the ceasefire offered a breather for that to get established creating a new situation where if Hormuz remains unopened the rest of the world will be able to go on as before without being seriously affected. Better management of overall oil supplies is already taking place, inventories are building up, so that at some point Hormuz does not affect oil prices significantly. This is the best and most realistic option and the US, China, India, Japan, the EU, are going ahead with it. ...

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Iranian response to Memorandum of Understanding shows reality of 2 factions in Iran, the IRGC military faction, and the elected president Pezeshkian plus Turkey /Pakistan/Egypt and Qatar as the second faction. With IRGC military rejecting the Memorandum on opening Hormuz and discontinuing nuclear weapons programs. This was true at the time Vance conducted negotiations and the Memorandum appears to have been accepted by IRGC only under great pressure from Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar, and the faction under Iranian elected president Pezeshkian. Where IRGC thinking could have been to give  agreement to the Memorandum that they had no intention of keeping, as its policy on nuclear weapons remains unchanged, and its goal is to use Hormuz for leverage and extend its control of Hormuz channel. The cost of sanctions and not being able to export oil, the effect on its economy, on cost of living with rampant inflation, may be of little concern to the people who run the IRGC military who suppressed all dissent and protests in 2026. Protests across different parts of society to the deteriorating economy. How could the US respond? The US used the time of the ceasefire to create a new status quo by using open navigation of the seas as the principle behind opening and protecting the Omani side of the Hormuz for oil shipment. This is a principle accepted by all countries. There is a backup plan of the US, China, India, Japan and other countries and this is to prepare rapidly to do without Hormuz so that the economies of these nations are not affected. The US also supported efforts by Saudis and Kuwait, UAE, to increase oil exports through channels outside of Hormuz, UAE's decision to increase oil supplies and lower prices by leaving OPEC, and US creating alternative supplies for India through Venezuela. Most important is China's decision that it no longer needs the 5 million barrels of oil from Hormuz for its economy to operate using alternative supplies and increasing efficient use of its oil resources. The world is also building up oil supplies and inventories so that Iran cannot threaten a cutoff from Hormuz because all nations have made other arrangements. Attacks by Iran on oil shipping on the Omani side protected by the US breaking the principle of open navigation of the seas, can then be considered Iran disrupting an open seas navigation route which it no longer is allowed to do under international law. This is something the world public opinion would support. The NYT has been critical of the DJT action in Iran, the WSJ and other media had joined in criticism. The situation in July 2026 is that the criticism of the US by NYT and other media, and from Europe and other countries in Asia will now be muted, because the US has tried all the options and is now finding ways to be able to bypass Hormuz altogether, and a backup plan or strategy to minimize the impact on oil prices. So that oil price of $70 may be kept at level around 10-20% higher not much more as Iran's military IRGC continues to disrupt the Hormuz supplies.  ...

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German economic growth drops in 2026 to below 1%. What is happening?Germany manufacturing jobs drop to 6.6 million lowest in 10 years in 2026 as China makes same products for less and better. China is shipping more of its products to the German market and displacing German products in world markets. The same problems affecting the US in loss of manufacturing jobs is affecting Germany. This is happening as China uses long range plans coordinated with industry and state owned companies to deliver superior results in world markets to American and German companies competing on their own without coordination with the government in a long range plan and effort. The American and German companies face greater uncertainty in markets and are slow to invest in critical areas and technologies as a result leaving them exposed to Chinese competition. China has used the Japanese style subsidizing its industries and has another advantage in doing this in that many are state owned companies or heavily subsidized and supported by the state. After 1990 the fall of the Soviet system led to a sense that free markets in their purest form were better. This was not really true as the soviet system of state planning failed because it did not use the best features of the market economy that work. Japan adapted the market system to its needs and used state partnership with private industry to produce good results. The US did not learn from Japan's example. China learned from both the failure of soviet style planning and the success of the Japanese system to adapt its state plannning system by including aspects of the market economy. The US and Germany can only learn from these examples and adapt US market economy by including aspects of what worked for China and Japan of state plannning and long range plans of industry and government. Look back to how FDR won the war- within 5 years 1940-1945 he combined the best aspects of the planning and coordination of government and industry to achieve goals not thought possible. Britain did the same which shows such planning and coordination is not only a part of the US system of business and industry, it is just that these lessons and the lessons of other nations like Japan and China after 1950 were forgotten. India is now adapting its system for business and industry, and government for five year plans borrowing and learning from the examples of the US, Japan, China and the EU. ...

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  US's womens socceer's Carli Lloyd, who led the US women's soccer team many times in her career, was honest and blunt on FOX television coverage of the 4-1 loss to Belgium in World Cup Soccer 2026. The host country failed to make it into the quarter finals after so much advertising on television, way too much not even good for the players. There is so much money on television ads and promotions that it must hurt the players and the game. Messi, Neymar, Vinicius Jr., Pulisic, and some Mexican players, were all put up as players who could do anything on television. In the end none of them did well, Messi almost in tears after Argentina was behind 2-0 for most of the 90 minutes against Egypt, only miraculously surviving. Brazil is out going down to Paraguay. Christiano Ronaldo, the first billionaire in soccer, was a little kid from a struggling family in Madeira, Portugal, and he too went out after failing to score on several passes, with Portugal's loss to Spain. All this may be a good thing and a learning lesson for the sport. For all those who love the sport and think things have gone overboard with television advertising,  with excessive brand sponsorship on television, making entertainment stars who knows to what purpose, but losing the best of the game of soccer in the process. And these are Carli Lloyd's comments (Carli who after 318 appearances and bringing so much joy to young girls for the sport worldwide has a net worth of $2 million compared to the now billionaires and others on the way to billions, or hundreds of millions, television stars of the sport who could not get their game right in World Cup Soccer 2026.) There are lessons for the sport which is the most popular sport not only in all the developed countries but also the poorest large countries on the planet like China, India, Brazil, Egypt. “I felt like they lost the game before they even stepped out on the pitch." “And I’m not sure why, and I don’t know the reasons. But just from the beginning: chasing. Tentative. Scared. Just not confident on the ball.”  "You wanted some of those big-time players to step up in big-time moments." “And I gotta be honest: I was a bit disappointed in Christian Pulisic. Whether he wants to be the star of this team or not, we didn’t see enough from him in this particular game — and, really, the whole World Cup. Little glimpses here and there.” ...

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Climate policy changes lead to $1.3 trillion savings according to analysis from DJT administration and EPA's Zeldin, with $1.1 trillion in savings from lower vehicle prices which addresses unaffordability of cars. Using the average price of a new basic Toyota Corolla the price in 2020 was $19,000 which has gone up to $23,000 a price increase of 21% by 2025 over a 5 year period. The cost in 2026 of operating a Gas powered vehicle is on average about $2500, for EV car about $1000 with $1500 in savings per year for EV's that need to be figured into the equation at gas prices that prevailed in 2024 of $4-$5 per gallon . At prices of $3 per gallon the gas costs come down to $1200 when driven 12,000 miles at 30 mpg for 400 gallons of gasoline consumed. This makes the difference between gas and EV yearly savings on gasoline costs down to about $200 from $1500. This makes gasoline powered cars attractive as car companies can reduce EV investments and pass on some of these savings in lower car prices in 2027 in exchange for favorable rules on emissions and EV transition dates.  Are there losses through the emissions and climate change? The DJT/Zeldin EPA analysis points to global climate emissions from China and India (the coal powered plants) continuing at a pace that would determine the overall change in climate for 2026-2027. In this kind of approach the goal is to make cars affordable over a 2-3 year period for US and European carmakers who would be expected to cut prices. It is about flexibility in fighting the Cost of Cars a big component in the Cost of living with housing as the next large component. It is not a long term strategy, simply one that offers a flexible approach. Will the US, Europe and Japan fall behind in EV's technology? Hybrids a focus of Japanese cars will continue to advance that technology which is becoming a preference where it is affordable for customers. Toyota for instance will have a wide lead in hybrids technology by 2030. Much of the Chinese market will have EV's and the EV's technology will advance in China in 2026-2027, and tariffs will be needed to protect European and American carmakers for 2026-2028. It is a strategy tradeoff to deal with the cost of living crisis in US, Europe and Japan answering call for a flexible approach that was also heeded by the Biden administration in relaxing carbon emissions rule changes. It will require automakers to step up and cut prices for gasoline models for buyers at the entry and lower range for affordability by 2026-2027. What about climate action? The strategy is based on the idea that climate action requires India and China (coal powered plants) on board to make a real difference so that over 2-3 years to 2027 the US, Europe and Japan need to address affordability for the lower end entry cars. There is an element of denial of climate change in parts of the DJT administration in the US but not in Europe and Japan. It is also true that leading DJT administration officials Secretary Bessent see the problem of climate as real and one that needs to be addressed yet leaving room for flexibility to tackle affordability crisis for ordinary workers with low incomes struggling to make a living. Bessent and others in the DJT administration are calling for using all of the resources to address needs of people struggling to make a living, and for a strategy for the US to get back its manufacturing capacity from China and for rebuilding the US economy after deindustrialization (caused by Clinton's huge US economy shattering failure to provide safeguards for abuse of the trading system by China in signing a poorly drafted agreement for China's entry into WTO at the end of his term in 1999-2000 just when he had fought impeachment.  ...

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This NYT's look at PDVSA the Venezuelan oil industry 2026 and in the years 2013-2026 after Chavez is an eye opener on what happens when socialist ideas of distribution and equality fall apart. There are dangers on both sides the Right, the Left makes no difference mere labels, vigilance, good leadership, clean governance, good management hard work, are essential for countries and peoples to prosper.The operations of the Venezuelan oil industry in these years as shown in the NYT. show the failures of the Chavez ideas for the economy, hyper inflation and mismanagement of the country's oil resources that followed in 2013-2026. From Nigeria, to India in the years just before the 2014 elections, to West Bengal, India in 2026, many such lessons in Indian states post Independence 1947, Sri Lanka, clear lessons on how socialist regimes take a turn into financial disaster as dreams evaporate and economies are destroyed with lack of jobs and industry, mismanagement and corruption. Everything falls apart, billions of dollars of public funds are lost, economies are ruined, people's lives destroyed, a cautionary tale for future generations. In Latin America, Asia and Africa most prone to such disasters, where bad leaders can come to power through elections if the situations are allowed to be created where this can happen through the lack of effort to build better societies that work. ...

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China's dependence on an export sector that is uncertain 14% growth (EV's electronics) vs. 0.2% growth in domestic spending April 2026. Costlier energy inputs are affecting China in the way that is affecting Germany's economy in 2026. The US has increased tariffs, Germany and the EU are likely to do the same as they see their economy erode with Chinese exports in German markets replacing German manufacturing. China has set 4.5% growth target much of it from ramping up exports and depends on cheaper inputs for energy as Germany has done for economic growth. This is being gradually eroded as US/EU want to reindustrialize and make things and products realizing the errors in industrial policy of previous administrations Bush and Obama in US and Schroeder/Merkel in Germany. At the same time India wants to be a manufacturing hub like China. When that happens by 2030 China's growth will be similar to the US of 2-3% a year as exports decrease. Eastern India is the New East and South China with 700 million people for the first time in 2025-2026 under double engine governments. Double engine meaning state, local and federal governments all under the same party (the BJP National party) so that industrial policy is conducted along the lines of a Master Plan tested in western Indian states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. This has been seen before. As Japan rapid rise of the 1960's and 1970's slowed by 1980, China's rapid rise of the 1990's and 2000's slowed by 2025 and India in 2025 is picking up from China in the way China picked up from Japan. This means an industrialized US and EU, rapidly industrializing India will face a slowing China and aging China by 2030. Knowing this pattern helps US and EU leaders, Indian leaders, look at the long term in their plans, having confidence in their investments in industrial progress for the next 5 years. ...

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Mark Tully BBC's voice in India, a child of the British Raj born to a British mother herself born in India, covers India after Independence 1962-2020. He opposed the BBC's centralization culture in 1994 with Tory emphasis on management methods saying it was an attempt to make the BBC the best managed broadcasting institution instead of the best broadcasting institution in the world. He was for modernization and improvements but thought Tory methods were haphazard and destroyed the spirit of the BBC under management of the time. He covered India at atime when there was avast Indian audience for the BBC and a vast Asian audience for the BBC for its broadcasting reputation and the spirit of the BBC. Some of this is missing today.

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Nearly 9-10 million Indians work in the Persian Gulf kingdoms. They are affected by the war with Iran. About 1 million have returned to India during the current war in 2026. About 2.2 million of the 9 million are from Kerala state in southern Indian coastline with cities such as Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram the capital. Of the $50 billion they send back as remittances to India Kerala gets the largest amount among the states in India. As aresult this is affecting the state economy. Many people in the Gulf are being laid off as the Gulf economies are hit by the war. Recovery will be strong in 2027 only in Saudi and UAE (Emirates), others Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman will take much longer to recover according to some forecasts.

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Modi BJP Win in West Bengal 2026- full speech on the future of Bengal, India, Indian democracy, India's modernization - May 4, 2026. For the first time most of India is now being led by state and federal governments that are aligned for rapid modernization, rapid development of infrastructure, industry and the economy. Madras, Bombay, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Vizag, Kolkata, Bhubaneshwar, Delhi, Noida, Bhopal, Dehra Dun, Srinagar,most of India's cities and urban areas, and the rural heartland of India all aligned for accelerated development under a Master Plan for the economy for the next two decades. This will close the gap with China to make India the third largest economy in the world, and a key support for the United States and the European Union. Seen through this lens many of todays reports and concerns fade into significance. The US and the European Union are not alone- they have the support of 2 billion people of India, and Indonesia and adjoining regions.

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It will take some time for AI software firms (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google)  to generate returns. Yet AI enabling goods, the AI chipmakers (the hardware) made by Taiwan, South Korea and the US's Nvidia are making large profits from the boom in AI investments worldwide. South Korea's Samsung SK Hynix, Taiwan's TSMC and Nvidia in the US are chip makers making huge sales revenue in AI enabling goods- $2.6 trillion for Asian makers including Japan, $1.4 trillion for all US chip makers. This report in the WSJ says whether and when the AI software makers (Google, Microsoft and Amazon)  turn a profit the AI boom is changing the habits of ordinary investors, surging the market capitalization of TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix and Nvidia, and creating a big surge in stock markets in Asia and a bit smaller by comparison in the US. Total spending in 2026 for worldwide AI services, infrastructure and software was $2.6 trillion in 2026, going up to $3.5 trillion in 2027. The most astonishing aspect of this is how much the AI boom has increased the Asian stock market indexes- TAIEX index of Taiwan which has gone up 55% year to date Jan-June 2026 in value and South Korea's Kospi index which has increased 110% in value. Taiwan's TSMC shares doubled in value. Japan's stock market index Nikkei up year to date Jan-June 2026 32%.  Another aspect of this is that just one company TSMC makes up 42% - market capitalization as a percentage of the overall stock index- of TAIEX Taiwan's stock market index. And just 2 companies Samsung and SK Hynix make up 55% of South Korea's KOSPI Index. By comparison the US S&P up 11% in the same period year to date Jan-June 2026. This report looks at the speculative fever as ordinary investors in the middle and lower income classes in Asia in Taiwan and South Korea from cab drivers, insurance agents, software programmers and elementary school teaches, to high school students with parental sponsored accounts, are all engaged in speculative trading in AI related stocks. What all this means in terms of the cost of living issues, the price of oil and gas with Hormuz and the Memorandum with Iran to open it, the social fabric splintering, the cultural issues splitting electorates in the US and Europe, the migration issues, the issues on world trade is a separate question. It is similar to the railroads and steamship building in the 19th century and the construction of the interstate highway system in the 20th century (in the 1950's in US and in 2000's in China, 2020 in India) different aspects of the Industrial Revolution that overlap with the social and political changes of each period in history. Speculative booms in financial markets accompanied these changes till they returned to a degree of normalcy. It still required regulation, oversight, building the modern institutions of government that improved the economic life of nations and people during the FDR/Truman/Ike  period, and the period after the sixties that shaped the European Union and economic progress in Europe, similar changes in China and India, Brazil. And the many changes now needed in 2026 in the US, and Europe for reindustrialization, and modernization in India, continued development in China. ...

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NYT gives this perspective of Mikhail Zygar on the difficult economic situation in Russia in January 2026 before the Iran War. Putin considering bringing Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft, as negotiator for Russia with Ukraine, to replace Kirill Dimitriev. Dimitriev is seen in Russia as an insubstantial figure and with no real mandate, on the point of being dismissed by Putin. This would being new life to Ukraine negotiations to end the war. This report says if Russia was to end the war it would have to change the structure of power and that included bringing in a new administration to rebuild the economy, to replace prime minister Mikhail Mishustin. He says oil was sold to India in January for $22 per barrel about one third of the market price. The economy was getting severely affected by the war and the conditions it had created for inflation, oil revenues under sanctions, and by financial and human cost of the Ukraine war, a credit crunch and a wave of bankruptcies that were expected in January 2026. Some of this is confirmed by the perspective offered on the same day this article appeared in NYT by an NYT article from the Foreign Minister of Sweden, Maria Malmer Stenegard. Stengard says Swedish analysis shows central bank interest rates set at 21% in 2024 when interest rates were 10%, suggest inflation was much higher than the 5% official figures. The minister also points out that instead of growing by 13% as official figures reported Russian economy had declined by 8% over 2020 to 2024. British government estimate is that the losses from the Ukraine war are $450 billion. Official growth estimate for 2026 is 0.4%. even with higher oil prices. All this changed with the Iran war by February and the jump in oil prices and Putin has decided not to make the changes he thought necessary and wind up the war, considering that some of the objectives had been achieved and to avoid an economic downward spiral. It is now Putin's decision says this report.  In the past Putin has always given the economy and living standards the priority. Yet the elites in Russia says this report are concerned about the fragile nature of the economy as present oil prices may come down in a short period. ...

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The US Federal Reserve Report on Economic Wellbeing of US Households 2024-May 2025 gives some insights into the well being of American households. It shows food insufficiency households the same in 2023-2025 at 7%. The situation for cost of living remains a concern in 2024 as well as 2025. Retirement savings have improved for many middle class Americans, as confirmed by reports from Fidelity and Vanguard. The people earning less than 25,000 are 19% and about the same in 2024 under Biden as under DJT in 2025. 39% make $100,000 or more and 26% make $50,000 -$100,000. Combining the 19% making less than $25,000 and the 16% making between $25,000 and $50,000 shows about one third of the population under $50,000 living paycheck to paycheck. It would appear that $2000 DJT rebate putting $160 billion out of $550 billion of tariff revenues for 2025-2026  in the hands of 79 million households that make less than $100,000 would go a long way to keep the situation stable with optimism and hope arising from the restructuring of world trade that would bring trillions of dollars of investment into the US from Europe and Asia. A this investment plus domestic investment should bring back jobs and higher incomes to US manufacturing in small towns across America. The rest of $550 billion tariff revenue of $390 billion would go to reducing the deficit which would improve prospects for the economy in 2027 and produce a more resilient economy in 2027-2028. As shown on this page the popular Democratic Governor of Michigan in her op-ed in Washington Post supports strategic tariffs, and supports using the revenue for a check to American workers of $2000 per worker or per worker household and offers to work with the opposite party to get a WIN-WIN for the American People.  In the whole process of trade tariffs it must be remembered when seeing the inconsistent cases of tariff use by this Republican administration that these were special reason situations not aberrations or whimsical. First, it should be borne in mind that behind the appearance of DJT making tariff decisions is a carefully thought out process that took ten years to form under Reagan era Trade Representative Lighthizer who negotiated with Japan, and his deputy Jamieson for 2016-2024, and the economic and capital markets experience of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The two cases of inconsistent application of tariffs relate to the 50% tariff on India and the reduction of tariffs on China agreement on rare earths, and the imposition of a large tarif on Japan and the EU. In the first instance with India it was intended to give Ukraine breathing room from Russian attacks as Germany steps up its military preparedness and assistance to Ukraine. With both countries it was about saving face important in Asian or any societies and it has achieved it's purpose. Reports show both Indian and Chinese refiners have quietly cut purchases of oil from Russia leading to Russian oil selling at about $20 discount to Brent crude oil. In the case of Japan the quick action to raise tariffs was intended not to get into long drawn negotiations and show serious intent- Japan is known for dragging out negotiations for years if not decades. The same is true for the European Union. With the Swiss it was about a certain disrespect of the US coming from attitudes that Swiss products were somehow superior. Not just in the long run, in 2026-2028 history will show that the effort done right - and it takes effort to get this right- to restructure world trade so that other nations are not siphoning off the benefits and leaving the US to lose its manufacturing and factories is the right one. And taken with courage and sincere desire to create a fair distribution of the benefits of world trade for too long distorted by egregious practices of competitors. It has nothing to do with 2 senators from the 1930's who were from places like the Mountain West in the US, having no concept of world trade, Smoot and Hawley, who under a irresponsible president Hoover got everything wrong. This is a carefully set out plan to evenly balance the benefits of world trade to all nations.   ...

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By taking action in Venezuela in a way that benefits the Venezuelan people (and similar action in the long run interests of the Iranian people to dedicate most of the resources for development and increase share of oil revenues without discounting and removing sanctions ill effects on economy and quality of life) major new changes can improve quality of life in the world.  Venezuelan production which was 3 million barrels a day has declined to 900,000 without US investment and technological upgrades. With US investment this can be increased to put additional oil supplies on the market lost in the war with Iran and smaller traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. Venezuelan crude is best suited to US refineries which frees up shale oil for export to meet needs of India and Europe. China which had hyper growth through massive oil consumption would reduce its growth rate and its impact on climate change as it adjusts to the loss of 3 million barrels a day it no longer gets from Iran. Slower growth rate in China is good for the climate as it is the hyper growth of China that put the most pressure on climate even as Europe and the US had cut  fossil fuels consumption over the last decade. China made 2 coal plants a week and 95% of all new global coal construction in 2023. India needs additional oil supplies as it increases its growth rate from a much lower point of development (and electricity poverty) than China. By simply settling for normal development compared to hyper development targets( China has reached a point of Oil Fairness Percentage where each country gets to use the same percentage of oil as its population is as a percentage of world population- the number being about 17% for China for both, with the number being 18% for India and it having a shortfall of 12% based on its oil consumption being only 6% of the world total). China can reduce oil and coal consumption reducing pressure on oil prices and absorbing most of the impact from the loss of Iranian oil. China and Russia + (old Soviet territory) Canada, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, make up about 40% of the world's territorial landmass, would be large beneficiaries with improved climatic conditions from burning less coal. They are now highly developed countries and do not need hyper growth which requires China to build 2 coal plants a week and consume excessive amounts of crude oil and coal based on artificially set targets that make no sense by destroying the climate when no child in China lacks electricity to read. Marathon Philipps Valero with over half a million barrels of refining capacity for heavy Venezuelan crude can now put this to use using the imports by US of lower priced (by $9 to Brent crude) Venezuelan crude oil. In a few months of 2025 US has imported 280,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in February 2026 alone some of it going to the large Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. American oil refiners make larger margins using the Venezuelan crude than they make on light crude from shale oil producers in the US. What this does is to increase the supply of crude and refined oil products on the market as the light crude get shipped overseas to India and Europe- including countries like Spain which took in 100,000 barrels a day of shale crude from US in February 2026. ...

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India European Union Trade Agreement of 2026- game changer in world trade reconfiguring supply channels with 2 billion people market. EU's Leyen says she is determined to push ahead and make this the defining trade arrangement of this century. That the EU will deliver. For India it gives a reliable partner for modernization of its logistics, its infrastructure, and its industrialization, India's modernization in a rapid way. Similar to what China gained over 2 decades with its trading relationship with the EU, even surpassing that because of newer technologies in 2025-2050. It is a relationship based on two cultures and two civilizations, on respect for European and Buddhist/Vedic civilization for each other, totally different from the Imperial Japan of the 1930's that overran China, and the CCP in China ambitions for China Dreams based on belligerent action or support for belligerent action as in Ukraine. Leyen goes as far as citing Romain Rolland, a western philosopher of Indian civilization in the concluding point in her speech. In fact the first translation of the Bhagavad Gita was done by Charles Wilkins in 1765 taking it out of the hands of the Brahmins in Varanasi similar to how William Tyndale translated the New testament into English from Greek in 1534.  The Bhagavad Gita was then translated by German philosopher Frederick Schlegel into German from Sanskrit, spreading learning of Asian languages throughout Europe. India owes a lot to Europe and Europe to India, for two civilizations that speak the same human language of spiritual aspirations. ...

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Greg Ip says what a difference US policy under DJT has made for energy independence and for exports. US economic growth is affected only slightly as it exports oil and LNG. Forecasts by Citi revised for the US for economic growth by only 0.1% downward for the Iran War, for the European Union by 0.4%. EU spends 1-2% of GDP to get imports of LNG and oil. US gets 0.2% of GDP for the oil and LNGit exports.  The US is in a strong position with oil policies to increase production and there is also additional supplies from Venezuela that can be added to replace Persian Gulf supplies. Which is why DJT can tell the world and the Europeans, Japan and China to get their own oil and do the job of opening Hormuz because US does not get any of its oil and LNG from Hormuz straits. In 2025 EU gets LNG from Norway 89, US 81, and Russia 37 in billions of cubic meters of imports for total in 2025 of 207 down from 257 total in 2021 because of conservation. US LNG will increase as US sells more LNG to Europe in 2026 and 2027 and reduces the little it imports from Russia. EU is doing a good job of conservation that the US can adopt to export even more to India and Japan replacing some of the supplies from the Persian Gulf nations. ...

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US trade deficit of $46 billion with India and DJT call to buy oil and gas from the US, to shift away from purchases of $50 billion of oil from Russia, of 2 million barrels a day. India only imported $1 billion of oil from Russia in 2020 and this is a call from the US to India to stop financing Russia's increasing air attacks on Ukraine in August 2025. For India this oil came at $70 a barrel when prices were around $90-$100 a barrel in 2022-2024. In 2025 oil prices are at $60 a barrel, and even if prices increase to $70 a barrel India can make the shift. US and Germany, the EU, Britain which seek negotiated end to the war in Ukraine will continue to pressure India in 2025. Russia could shift some of the oil to other places but the huge demand from a country India's size will not then be seen as a factor in prolonging the war. India needs to think ahead for the next 20 years and its goal of modernization by 2047 like China has done in 2000-2020. And not get into a nationalistic mode that may not be in the best interests of the Indian people seeing that this may serve the interests of all nations including Russia to phase out this European war. ...