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Edouard Philippe resigns as prime minister as he begins a new phase for the 2022 presidential elections. His popularity increased to 50% for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic in France, exceeding Macron's 38% in June. Mr. Philippe won the race for New Havre in recent municipal elections in which Mr. Macron's party failed to win a single large city, making its future uncertain. The Ecology party recently split from Mr. Macron's party in parliament. In 3 years in office Mr. Philippe maintained his independence and did not join the Macron party. Mr. Philippe followed a conservative path in government. His replacement is Mr Castex, mayor of a small town Prades in southern France.

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French prime minister Edouard Philippe says that France will meet the 3% of GDP deficit target in 2017 and this will require restraint in spending. Over the 5 year term of president Macron France will cut spending by 3% of GDP. The new government still plans to meet investment and tax cuts that were planned, including a $50 billion euro investment program. Over the 5 year term taxes will decline by 1% of GDP, said Philippe. 

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Critics say president Macron's appointment of an obscure official, a mayor of a town in the foothills of the Pyrenees (Prades with 6000 people), is a sign that he plans to be both prime minister and president for the remainder of his term. By selecting someone from the right wing Le Republicain party of Mr. Sarkozy, Mr. Macron now hopes to win reelection in 2020 with a shift to the right. His popularity at 35% is way below that of Edouard Philippe the outgoing prime minister who is at 50% of those polled recently.  Mr. Sarkozy and Mr. Macron represent a self focused presidency.

 

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French parliamentary election first round results show Macron's party neck and neck with the left parties bloc led by Jean Luc Melenchon. Melenchon is shown in polls to be slightly ahead. The second round of the election is on June 19. Macron is unlikely to have a majority and may need the support of the centre right Les Republicains. The voter demographic of the Macron party and the Les Republicains is older voters, centre right, who tend to vote in larger numbers than younger voters. Voter abstention is high with 48% of the voters having voted in the first round and shows deep voter dissatisfaction with the political elites in France. Before Macron two one term presidents led the government- Sarkozy of the Les Republicains and Hollande of the Socialist party. Macron was Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs minister in the Socialist party Hollande government before he formed his own party in April 2016 months before the election calling for a revitalization of French politics away from the two leading parties. His party was named Le Republique En Marche with younger people not connected to traditional parties.   Macron won a second term with the help of Mr. Melenchon's socialist supporters. Melenchon called for not a single vote for Marie Le Pen the far right candidate in the second round of the presidential election. Melenchon and Marie Le Pen were neck and neck in the first round.  Within Macron's party Louis Philippe a popular prime minister leads a faction that Macron will need to negotiate with in addition to Mr. Melenchon for parliamentary support. There is also a situation of cohabitation that would happen if Mr. Melenchon wins a majority in the National Assembly. Melenchon says the results in the first round "offer an extraordinary opportunity for the destiny of the common homeland to defeat the disastrous politics of the majority, of Macron." In 1997-2002 France went through cohabitation with the president and prime minister from different parties. Lionel Jospin was prime minister with Jacques Chirac as president. Yellow vest protests in 2018, gilets jaunes, were a result of increase in automobile fuel prices and the cost of living, and the general sense of dissatisfaction with policies of president Macron that were seen as not favoring workers and families finding it hard to make ends meet. The working class vote and vote of younger people is evenly split between the far right of Marie Le Pen which does well in rural areas, and the socialists under Melenchon in working class districts of larger cities. In providing support for the European Union and traditional French foreign policy, Macron and the socialist parties have common ground compared to the anti- EU policies of Le Pen resulting in votes cast for Macron that were really for melenchjon in the presidential election in which Macron secured a second term. Cohabitation then offers the popular alternative for a prime minister such as Melenchon for domestic policy and a president in the form of Macron for foreign policy at a critical time for Europe with the EU response to Russia including the embargo. ...

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The first round of France's parliamentary elections show president Macron's party, La Republique en Marche, winning 28% of the vote. The turnout was low, below 50%, below the turnout of 57% in 2012 and 60% in 2007. The Republican Party gained 22% and the National Front 13%. The Socialist Party lost heavily gaining only 7% of the vote.

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This report in the Guardian says president Macron's party along with its small ally MoDem could win as many as three fourths of the 577 seats in parliament in the June 2017 election, or about 400-445 seats. The election showed a low turnout of 49%, with abstention highest among supporters of Marie Le Pen of the National Front on the extreme right and Le Melenchon on the extreme left.  A big loser is the Socialist Party which this report estimates losing about 200 seats. Les Republicains the other main party on the right is also a loser, as this report estimates it going from 199 seats to 70-130 seats. The National Front of Marie Le Pen could end up with one seat at worst or just below the threshold of 15 seats from 118 constituencies contested. This is because it faces competition from the right and the left parties for votes in every constitutency, and is kept out by the centre right and centre left coming together. Le Melenchon's France Unbowed is expected to win about 11-23 seats.  In this election young and working class voters stayed away, voters who supported the more extreme left and right wing parties. Chancellor Merkel called it "a vote for reforms." The big majority makes it possible for Macron to get laws to change the labor market to create more jobs, and to make changes to pension and unemployment benefits, so that France's economy can get moving again.  ...