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India is providing additional financing to Serum Institute of India and vaccine manufacturers to increase vaccine supplies. It is also importing Sputnik vaccine from Russia and approving production within India of Sputnik vaccine. These steps are being taken to accelerate vaccinations. By early May vaccination will be open to anyone over 18 years.

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Lack of vaccine supplies and differences between the European Union Commission in Brussels and the German, French governments is slowing the vaccination drive in both countries. The lack of a national concerted effort with the whole country, local and federal governments in agreement, is restricting the effectiveness of the vaccination drives. The failure to contract for more vaccine supplies adds to the problems. By contrast India has coordinated its drive for vaccinations, with the local and federal governments in agreement, and the whole population largely behind the effort to vaccinate. Very critical for a population of 1.4 billion when one includes Bangladesh which has received 2 million doses of vaccine. India has gone one step further with supplying of vaccines to Brazil, Morocco, and other countries. BBC says India has exported 60 million vaccine doses to 76 countries. This is an amazing story and much credit goes to the concerted government effort at all levels local, state and federal and public support. Germany and France can gain by looking at the Indian experience in vaccination drives, just as India has gained by looking at the vaccination drive in the UK, Israel and the US. ...

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Dipti Deshpande writes in the Economic Times that how India's economy recovers depends a lot on how well the government tackles the problems of vaccine supplies, vaccination staff and incentives for vaccination to the public, vaccination logistics, and vaccination skepticism. Vaccination plays a large role in the reduction of fear and permits resumption of normal activity as seen in the US, UK and France. Government education of the public on vaccine safety should be conducted on an organized basis across the country starting now for the gaol of vaccinating the entire population by December 2021. In the 200 days remaining in 2021 the government would have to administer over 1000 million doses or at the rate of 5 million doses a day just for the single dose population, with the second dose meaning additional supplies and logistical effort, organized health staffing, all to be organized.  The thrust of this article is that the economy and especially laggard sectors such as services would gain a fully powered recovery if the problems of vaccine supplies and vaccination drives are resolved early with preparation, lessons learned, and proactive action all taking place immediately. The period after the decline in cases to below 50,000 a day which is fast approaching for India is one that needs to be used to take deep yogic breaths, and prepare the Indian mind for the next challenge for government and nation.   ...

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This video in The Indian Express shows how president Biden invoking US defense act provisions to ensure supplies of vaccine ingredients to US companies prevents exports to countries that badly need it. India has surpassed 300,000 daily cases of coronavirus on April 22, and India's largest vaccine manufacturer Serum Institute of India says vaccine manufacturing in India is restricted because of president Biden invoking that law. 

India's vaccination drive is stalling because of not enough vaccine supplies.

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In a bold decision that shows courage and foresight president Biden lifts IP protection for Covid 19 vaccine patents of American companies such as Pfizer, Moderna, J&J and Novavax. This has huge implications for vaccination supplies for countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, that are hard hit by the pandemic as well as the rest of the world. It will open up manufacturing additional vaccine supplies in countries as diverse as France and India, that can ramp up quickly because of already established pharmaceutical bases.

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The first results of India's new vaccine policy with vaccine supplies and vaccination drive entirely run by the federal government are now showing up. Early reports are for vaccine supplies of 135 million doses in July for advance planning, and 250 million vaccine doses in August. Ramped up manufacturing of vaccines in India with the entire pharmaceutical industry in India taking part is part of the new policy. Collaboration with US manufacturing and research partners is also part of the new policy being implemented.

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As the coronavirus surges in India with over 300,000 cases a day on April 26, a clear picture on the vaccination drive in the country is critical. The following is the picture of the vaccination progress from Union Health Ministry in India as shown in The Hindustan Times. India has vaccinated 140 million people with at least one dose says this report in The Hindustan Times.  On Saturday 24th April 2.4 million doses were given for that day at 8 pm. This was done over 99 days. This means about 12% of the population of 1.2 billion has been vaccinated.  This compares with the vaccination in Germany for about 21% of people vaccinated with over 18 million getting the first dose in Germany by around April 25. Both Germany and India have suffered from vaccine shortages, some skepticism about vaccinations. Gradually sentiment is shifting in both countries so that once skeptical Germany now has about 75% of people willing to take vaccine on April 25, 2021. In India about 6 million healthcare workers have 2 doses of vaccine, and about 9 million have 1 dose. About 6 million frontline workers have 2 doses and 12 million frontline workers have 1 dose of vaccine.  There is a shortage of vaccine supplies and a bold decision was made by the Indian government on April 25th 2021, after the surge of cases to a world wide maximum of over 300,000 cases a day. The decision was to give immediate regulatory approval for the three major vaccines in the US to be brought and used in India. And delivery will be speeded up - no customs duties and fast processing of supplies access to speedy logistical supply routes. This is a huge step forward for the vaccination drive as this means Pfizer, Moderna and J&J vaccines can now be used in India. The government is also urging the companies to make in India or export to India with prices that provide flexibility in pricing for the private market. The locally produced Covishield Astra Zeneca based vaccine produced by Serum Institute will be allowed to be sold to the private market at 600 rupees or close to about $10. Pfizer and Moderna, J&J can price in a way that would be somewhere around this price range. The access to more vaccines and the ability of the companies to make a reasonable profit in the Indian private market means that vaccine supplies should open up in May and June.  This could give a huge boost to vaccination numbers so that India's vaccination percentage of population vaccinated should keep up with that in countries like Germany and France that were slower to get started in Europe but are now catching up quickly. This is a massive achievement because the population numbers are huge compared to Europe. ...

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From now on the vaccination program in India will be run nationally by the federal government. This will ensure fair access to vaccines to all parts of the Indian population. Earlier vaccine costs were bid up as states and private hospitals bid up prices. Under the new national program 75% of vaccines will be given out by the federal government and 25%  by private hospitals and other private health institutions. The government in New Delhi under prime minister Modi will offer adults free vaccinations. Modi said "We will increase the speed of procuring vaccines and also increase the pace of the vaccination program." Even in private hospitals the cost of vaccine will be kept at Rupees 150 or $2.06. Experts say this is the right policy and the government has learned from errors in letting states and other private institutions run vaccine policy, which made it too fragmented and subject to too many variables, resulting in inequity, and slowing vaccination drives. The Supreme Court stepped in asking for clarity, leading to the clear policy from the federal government announced today.  Advantage of the new policy is that the responsibility lies in one place, and the federal government also has the clout to make things happen, to negotiate with companies and other parties involved effectively. India has vaccinated 222 million people but because of the population being so large at 1.2 billion this comes out to be a small fraction of the population. This puts the task of getting vaccine supplies and getting the vaccination drives to work in the only place that has the determination and the resources to deliver results by vaccinating 1.2 billion people by December 2021. It has never been done before in history says Mr. Modi, and it is a challenge that India is now taking up for itself and for the global community. It also lays the ground for India to help its neighbors in Asia and in Africa, Latin America in 2022.   ...

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After a good start the vaccination drive is slowing both in India and the US. Vaccine supplies need to be boosted in India and the government has given approval to the Pfizer, Moderna and J&J vaccines to boost supplies. The Sputnik vaccine from Russia has also gained approval with new supplies of that vaccine expected in India. Vaccine skepticism is a problem in the US and Europe. Supplies of the Pfizer vaccine will be boosted in Europe with the EU contract for 1.8 billion doses signed recently. This should give the slow vaccination drives in France and Germany a boost.

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India plans to vaccinate 300 million people in the first drive of the vaccination campaign. The two vaccines approved are the Covishield from Astra Zeneca partnership with Serum Institute of India, and the Bharat Biotech vaccine. India is the largest vaccine manufacturer in the world, and its vaccination production and campaign is being watched closely.  The largest maker of vaccines is Serum Institute of India based in Pune. Countries that are seeking India's help in vaccines are Brazil, South Africa, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh. Brazil has ordered 1.5 million vaccine doses. The Indian government has approved sending vaccines to other governments. Price of 100 million doses to be supplied by Serum Institute to the Indian government is 200 rupees a dose or about $2.73 a dose. Vaccine sold in private markets will be priced at 2000 rupees a dose. Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech have stockpiled 70 million doses. ...

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How a deficiency in trust is affecting the US effort to vaccinate its whole population in 2021. The US government took steps early to build vaccine supplies, and was one of the first countries with the UK to begin its vaccination drive. Then after 6 months something went wrong. The deficiency in trust led to about 80 million people many of them young, to avoid getting vaccinated. US president Biden said the country was losing patience with these people. He setup a vaccine mandate and required all employees in private sector in companies with more than 100 employees to get vaccinated. This applied to about two thirds of American workers. All federal government workers were also required to get vaccinated. Yet even after the vaccine mandate the number of vaccinations has not exceeded 900,000 a day. By contrast India was doing 20 million a day. By September 2021 the US had fallen behind all nations in the G-7 in percentage of people vaccinated with one or two doses, behind Italy, France, UK, Germany, Japan, Canada. Trust was also needed, not just vaccine supplies to make a vaccination drive effective. By September the US passed the 675,000 deaths that happened in 1918 pandemic. The deficiency in trust leads one expert to call it breakthrough without followthrough. Other experts see the entrenched social forces that had diminished American health and life expectancy since the 1970's also affecting the vaccination drive. ...

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The Indian prime minister reviewed progress of the vaccination drive. On July 26, in the last 6 days about 38 million doses of vaccine have been adminstered in India. In a separate affidavit to the Supreme Court the government laid out its plan for making enough vaccine supplies to vaccinate the entire population over 18 by December 31, 2021, over 940 million people requiring over 1880 million doses.  "Out of this requirement for 1880 million doses 516 million doses will be made available by July 31, 2021, in about 34 days. The remaining 1350 million doses for complete vaccination to the eligible population" says the government information provided to the Supreme Court. The breakdown of vaccine supplies manufacturing is also given to SC. Of the total of 1350 million vaccine doses the following is how it will be manufactured in India in the next 6 months. Covishield  vaccine     500 million Covaxin vaccine          400 million Bio E Subunit vaccine  300 million Zydus Cadila DNA vaccine  50 million Sputnik V  vaccine          100 million The government told the Supreme Court that the procurement of Bio E Subunit vaccine and Zydus Cadila DNA vaccine will be subject to approval that is expected in the near future. From this new vaccine supplies picture it is clear that Covaxin and Bio E Unit will play a major part in the second half of 2021 in vaccinating India's entire population with 2 doses. This would be a historic achievement for the federal government after the lessons learned and the action taken with a new vaccine supplies policy for India in June 2021. There is also the challenge to be overcome of maintaining the vaccination drive at 6-8 million doses a day which would be another historic achievement for the federal and state, and local governments in India working with community education and logistical setup, medical staff.  ...

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Bellman and Dayal in WSJ give this amazing report of how vaccine travels from Pune to remote region of Mizoram hills in India's northeast near Burma. This is the story of the largest vaccination drive in the world that aims to have the vaccine supplies by July to vaccinate the entire population of 1.2 billion people by December 2021. It all began with Oxford University and Astra Zeneca with the decision to make the vaccine available to such a vast population and to people in all parts of the world not just Europe and the US. Bharat Biotech and India's pharmaceutical manufacturers have now joined efforts with the help of the Indian government to produce enough vaccine at affordable cost and make vaccine supplies ample and accessible. This will then be extended to all parts of the world.

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Daily coronavirus cases dropped to the lowest level since March 30, 2021. Cases on June 19 were at 58,000 and deaths at 1154 for India's population of 1.2 billion people. The only state with cases over 10,000 was Kerala, and close to 9000 was Tamilnadu. Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh were at over 5000. All these states are in southern India. Only Maharashtra with about 9000 cases was in northern India. The positivity rate in Maharashtra state was 3% and in Mumbai 2%.  The Indian government has a clear vaccine policy and it is for vaccine supplies and vaccination drive to be under the federal government. This puts responsibility in one place and makes it possible to achieve the target of vaccinating 1.2 billion people by December 31, 2021, with the federal government putting all the resources it can muster into the effort. The economy is also linked to how the vaccination supply effort and vaccination drive progresses in the next 6 months, so that the goal of vaccination is closely linked to economic recovery and progress for India as a whole. A good monsoon rainy season would also help the rural economy recovery. ...

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On the first day of the new vaccine policy on June 21, 2021, India has vaccinated 6.9 million people. India has now vaccinated 287 million people out of a population of 1.2 billion. This is a race against time as new variants caused the second wave of coronavirus in April and May of 2021 with cases peaking at over 300,000 a day.  The shortcoming of the old vaccine policy are being corrected. The entire vaccine supply process and the vaccination drive is now being handled by the federal government. Earlier during the second wave vaccine supply and the vaccination drives were under an arrangement with no clear overall responsibility. States shared responsibility with the federal government and target vaccination goals were missed, vaccine supplies were inadequate.  A similar arrangement in Germany failed and Germany's vaccination supplies were inadequate and vaccination drive stalled. This caused immense frustration in Germany in April-May 2021. Germany's troubled history before World War II led to a reliance on decentralized actions, and state governments imposed different rules in a relatively small country compared to India. This was corrected with the federal government taking on the entire responsibility for the vaccine supply and vaccination drive leading to good results today in vaccines. With India's huge population and political process of different state governments, some lacking experience in administration for a complex process, and others failing to coordinate well with the federal government, the lack of overall responsibility at the federal government posed serious risks of missing targets for vaccines and letting the coronavirus wreck the economy and public confidence. Complex negotiations with other governments in Europe and the US for vaccine manufacture in India could only be handled at the federal level. The resources and planning at the federal level were already in place in India for infrastructure and other projects, experience and setting targets in that area at the federal level could now be transferred to this task in vaccines. Somewhere in the range of 8 million vaccines a day need to be reached and sustained from August to December 2021 for India to reach the goal of vaccinated all 1.2 billion people ahead of any further attack from a third or fourth wave, say experts. This is not a choice for the federal government, it is simply something India has got to accomplish to be a healthy nation that can grow with neighbors in Europe, the US, Australia and Japan and build confidence in its Asia-Pacific region. The entire Asia-Pacific region has a lot resting on how well India achieve this goal and moves on to the next phase of assisting its neighbors in the region.  ...

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Kate Bingham, head of the Vaccine Task Force in Britain is commended for her intelligent approach in placing bets on vaccines in different technologies, "four buckets" as she calls them. This includes the Moderna and Pfizer in the mRNA technology and the viral vector Astra Zeneca, J&J vaccines. This approach made the British vaccination drive effective by being supported by a resilient supply system.

The Indian government has supported the effort to get several companies to make the Sputnik Russian vaccine in India in an effort to diversify supplies. Reddy Labs is one of the major manufacturers working on the Sputnik vaccine in 2021.

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The Hindu data team looks at the Indian vaccination drive with graphs by state and progress by dates. During the first 10 days of June the vaccination drive has been stepped up. It is now over 3 million a day and at this rate should reach 400 million vaccinated by the end of July, 100 million below target. For the remainder of the year vaccine supplies have to be pushed up so that 8 million doses can be given each day. This would get India to where everyone in the country of 1.2 billion has been vaccinated by Dec 31, 2021. This would make it possible for India to then use its technology and large manufacturing capacity to help other nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America in 2022. This is the first time in history that India has taken on a challenge of this size and complexity. The vaccine strategy has changed to where the federal government is taking over the overall responsibility of coordinating the production of vaccines in the country and providing access to vaccines from other countries. Federal government is also taking on overall responsibility for distribution of vaccines and setting up the logistical effort. Vaccine supply is being opened up by opening India to multiple vaccines including Pfizer, Moderna, and other vaccines. Production of Covaxin is being stepped up. This strategy is designed to get India to somewhere closer to the 8 million doses a day needed and to ensure distribution and logistical efforts are in place. More resources are put into the effort. The speed of economic recovery also depends on the vaccination drive. Lessons were learned during the second wave in May 2021 and the government is better prepared for the hard work ahead. ...

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A Kyodo News poll shows about 60% of Japanese want the Olympic games cancelled. Japan faces another wave of the pandemic with a surge in Osaka and other cities. The government's handling of the pandemic is disapproved by 71% of Japanese in a Kyodo News poll. Over 80% are unhappy with the slow vaccine rollout.   India faces a surge in cases public dissatisfaction that is similar to Japan and other countries in Europe. France and Germany have a slow vaccine rollout. In India vaccination drive is affected by a lack of supplies as in France and Germany with shortages of vaccine. The European Union in April signed contracts for over a billion doses with Pfizer and India has plans for ramped up supply of its Covishield and Covaxin vaccines to 2 billion doses by December 2021. This shows how difficult it is for advanced countries and major pharmaceutical producing countries such as as India to vaccinate their populations quickly in the initial stages of the vaccination effort. In July the vaccine effort would be in its 7th month and vaccine supply constraints are expected to ease as a result of aggressive action by governments in EU, France, Germany and India. This will also enable addressing needs in Latin America, Africa and South East Asia. ...

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The lack of vaccine supplies in Africa and Latin America, parts of Asia, is a major problem in 2021. Of the 66 million doses of vaccine planned to be given to Africa under COVAX plan only 19 million have been delivered. In total about 49 million doses have been delivered. Vaccine shortages are a result of the huge wave of coronavirus in India in April, so that vaccine shipments from India have stalled. Of the countries in Africa a few have made some progress- Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria. Other problems in Africa are lack of trained people to give vaccination. Last week 2.3 billion dollars in additional funds were raised at a donor conference for COVAX, the initiative for poor countries vaccines. That is enough to buy 1.8 billion doses. US and UK have not exported vaccines. India has made a good start in shipping vaccines to many countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America as shown in the Ministry of External Affairs website of the Indian government. For India to do this once it meets its own needs and resume exports, vaccine patent protection needs to be lifted for sometime, which the US is now accepting. ...

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US secretary of state Anthony Blinken meets Indian foreign minister Jaishankar, and prime minister Modi in New Delhi. India and the US are working together on how to make vaccine supplies accessible and affordable in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. To promote the vaccination drive in India the US announced an additional $25 million to the $200 million announced earlier, during Anthony Blinken's visit to New Delhi. Post pandemic economic recovery was also a subject of discussions. Blinken thanked Jaishankar for collaborative discussion on many points, including security in the Indo-Pacific region. He went on to say that "the US welcomes India's emergence as a leading global power." Blinken also said that the future in the 21st century will be written in the Indo-Pacific region.  Blinken thanked Jaishankar for the collaborative discussions on many topics, including trade and economy, and how to promote greater bilateral investments to deepen commercial ties. ...

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This report in The Guardian says what India urgently needs is for the US to lift export restrictions on supplies for India's vaccine factories, and tools such as genome sequencing to identify and control emerging variants of the coronavirus.

The report also points out that of the 1 billion vaccine jabs about half are in the US and Europe and the low income countries have only a tiny fraction of vaccinations. India which sent 64 million vaccine doses to countries including Brazil and Morocco, Bangladesh, in 3 months prior is reported to have sent only 1.2 million doses this month.

The crisis in India also shows the need says The Guardian for an international approach to the crisis no a country by country approach. It says the Bush plan for Aids and the the 2014 plan for Ebola in West Africa are models of an international approach that is needed now.

 

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European Union countries reopen for travel this summer. A new travel pass or digital Covid certificate is approved to promote freedom of travel as more people get vaccinated. About a third of people are vaccinated for first shot in France and about 40% in Germany, which means in coming weeks they will have the second shot and enough antibodies to make a return to normal life possible. The EU has negotiated this time with Pfizer for 1.8 billion doses and is building enough vaccine supplies. For the first time governments are stepping up with plans and resources allocated - in India the government now has plans to create supplies of 2 billion doses by the end of the year. This means there is new hope if the vaccination is accompanied by efforts to build booster shot supplies this time planning ahead. Managing the risk of those who are vaccine skeptical remains a problem to be tackled. Masks and other essential precautions also need to be followed in crowded spaces as this was neglected where there was a second or third wave. Public education for this is essential to better manage the pandemic. ...

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The International Monetary Fund estimates global growth in 2021 at 5.5%. It also says that government support to support the economic recovery is essential calling for the strong stimulus being done in the U.S., Europe, Japan, India and other countries.

The IMF also cautions that everything depends on controlling the pandemic. There is special concern for countries in Africa and Latin America where vaccine supplies are needed.

The chief economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinathan, says India will see growth of 11.5% in 2021. The head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva, says India has acted quickly to control the pandemic, considering the size of the population and its density.  The vaccination drive with 2.3 million healthcare workers vaccinated and 300 million to be vaccinated in the first part of the campaign, Georgieva says shows that steps are being taken for a strong recovery in 2021.

 

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Jenny Strasbourg of the WSJ provides this much needed report from London about the courageous decision by AstraZeneca and Oxford University to give vaccines away at no profit to the whole world, to billions of people in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Without this brave decision by a British company and a British University the world would be a lot poorer, more variants could have happened, making us realize the great contribution Britain has made and how indispensable it is to the planet. Add to this the effort of Indian companies including Serum Institute that provided the manufacturing facilities and capabilities for making most of the British vaccine. AstraZeneca delivered 2.3 billion doses of the vaccine globally as of mid-December, according to the company. The International Monetary Fund estimates that low and middle income countries received 3.25 billion vaccines as of Dec. 11, About half of this or 1.6 billion doses were Astra Zeneca shots. This is a bigger share than any other vaccine by far and a life saver to the world. AstraZeneca stepped up early in a true to the best ideals in Britain to meet the needs of the world-  aiming to deliver 3 billion doses in 2022 and sell them at no profit as long as the pandemic continues. As the shot does not need cold storage it is ideal for India and other Asia, Africa and Latin America. "We are all very proud throughout the company of the impact we have had," says AstrZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot. By far the biggest manufacturing was done at Serum Institute of India which supplied 1.3 billion doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine to 70 countries. Mr. Modi pushed forward the export of vaccine made in India to the world from the beginning in the same spirit of cooperation and the best ideals that Britain was living upto. Serum Institute can produce as much as 250 million doses of vaccine a month making it possible for India to tackle the vaccination population of 1.3 billion people.   None of this could have happened without Oxford University and AstraZeneca and Indian companies with Mr. Modi's active support living up to the best ideals of Britain and India for the world. "When you add up the benefits to humanity, I think you'll find the vaccine holds up pretty well in terms of the ill health it has prevented, and the deaths it has prevented," says John Bell, a senior Oxford academic who in 2020 guided the University through its vaccine-partnership talks with Astra Zeneca. Because in the real world AstraZeneca shot has held up so well it is also a choice for booster shots. ...

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The P1 coronavirus variant from Brazil is seen in 200 of 877 cases in ski resort in Whistler, British Columbia. Helath officials have little knowledge of how this variant entered Canada's western province. This report says the housing shortage for hospitality workers is worsening the pandemic with 6-8 hospitality workers living together and no chance to limit the spread.   The decision by the state health officials not to screen with testing for which variant is responsible for an infection of covid is coming under criticism, as reported in The Guardian. This allows the variant to spread with no knowledge about where it is happening so that countermeasures can be taken. In the absence of this type of screening and testing one is flying blind, says this report. Recent steps to contain the spread in India advocated by prime minister Modi in India give micro-containment a big role, with screening and testing and detection of incidence of mutation becoming critical. To do this the health system has to be well prepared and have full support and direction from a unified authority bringing together every arm of government at the federal, state and local levels. Response has to be very quick and resource allocation proper from testing labs, people on the ground, vaccine supplies, and vaccination drive effective. ...