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UAE facing relentless missile attacks from Iran and the brunt of the Iranian attacks decides on an independent approach. It moves out of OPEC and favors lower oil prices. It is also gradually responding to the attacks on its economy and tourism. This has also affected the remittances in Pakistan and India by their workers in the UAE economy that number upwards of 8 million. This affects the entire regional Indian economy.

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Guardian's Essay on the War and how it has undone Iran pushed it back by decades with internal suppression of dissent, the diversion of vital resources that could be used for building the economy and standards of living, failing to build a sovereign investment fund like Norway and other countries setting aside money for a rainy day. Much of the young educated voters and business in markets is in the cities in Asia and this class has to be integrated into development to create advanced developed nations instead of a small class of people controlling the nation's resources under an ideological or religious sectarian leadership. It failed in Spain in the Franco years, and now in Venezuela and Iran, Pakistan, because it does not grasp what happened in Asia- in China, in India, in South Korea where even under communist (China), military (South Korea), the integration of the students, middle class business, all sectors of society, leads to all sections of society building advanced societies improving education, healthcare, and modernization infrastructure, joining Europe and the US to build the future of science and technology. ...

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Iran Ceasefire shaky May 11 2026 with no willingness on the part of IRGC Iran (Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps) to send all nuclear materials out of the country. Past experience has shaken American confidence in IRGC Iran's willingness to give up nuclear weapons development. Under president Obama some nuclear materials were sent to Russia, some left inside Iran which were after an agreement used by IRGC Iran to develop weapons grade enriched uranium, putting the situation back to where America started before the agreement. This is behind the DJT Republican administration's effort to get all nuclear materials out of Iran. This has wasted another decade for Iran, diverting resources needed for improving standards of living and cost of living to the weapons programs. The result is internal protests that were widespread in Iran including the middle class, not just students. So that today Iranian people are divided on the issue whether Iran should against all prevailing Middle Eastern and World opinion go for a nuclear weapon. The situation of clandestine development in North Korea and Pakistan of nuclear weapons is not existent today as the US is monitoring it constantly. Israel sees these weapons programs in Iran as a threat to its existence close to its borders in Lebanon and Iraq, which makes it unlikely that clandestine development is possible for nuclear weapons development anywhere in the Middle East. The UAE has also shifted its stance in favor of the US, Saudis want assurances, and India, Pakistan Egypt are in different ways seeking a denuclearized Middle East. This means the American DJT administration is NOT ALONE on this issue as the media in the US and Europe are presenting. Germany's Wadephul and Merz are closer to US thinking on this issue than the media says. Macron and Starmer are at popularity of less than 20% in France and the UK and do not reflect the opinion in France and Britain, and in Europe on this issue. In this sense the US is doing this for a safer world, for China, India, Brazil and EU, all the nations in the poorest parts of the world in Africa, Asia. These poorest nations which are bearing the brunt of this obsession with nuclear weapons development by IRGC Iran in a Middle East torn by 5 decades of wars from Kabul to Damascus, Baghdad to Tehran, by IRGC Iran (Revolutionary Guard Corps), as these poor nations confront lack of oil and fertilizer supplies. It does not come at a good time for even the largest nations about 3 billion people in China, India and Indonesia, Egypt which are suffering from the effects of oil shortages and fertilizer shortages when possibly at most about 40 of 90 million people in Iran support weapons programs, all others in Iran seeking a way out for better standards of living and living at peace with neighbors and the world. In that peacetime Middle East the Palestinian people could find solutions like the Irish people with the goodwill of all neighbors. ...

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DJT says time is on their side to negotiators so that the blockade on Iran will remain till a deal is made that cover nuclear materials. US blockade of Iran in force till a deal is reached as final deal will require going beyond Memorandum to nuclear materials -this is the situation on May 24 2026. Mediators Pakistan and Turkey have only got as far as getting a Memorandum- a written document of intentions not actions taken on nuclear materials- while all the time the IRGC Iran says nuclear is not included. What explains this? There are now two factions inside Iran that are the IRGC and the elected president of Iran, one not as committed to nuclear weapons as the IRGC at the cost to the people of Iran and the nation's economic future. This war has proved that while oil producing countries are causing great damage to their economies and productive potential- this includes Russia, Iran and Saudis-the world is moving on its goal of reduced dependence on oil followed by fossil free future in 2 stages. By the first stage if modernization does not take place in the Middle East it will lose forever the opportunity to modernize infrastructure and fall behind other countries including China, India, Brazil and other nations that have made the shift.  ...

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Mediators Pakistan, Turkey sought to separate Iranian nuclear issue to a second stage with a vague Iranian commitment to discuss the issue and future dragging of feet by Iran. The US DJT administration has made this the only issue that must be settled first before a settlement can be reached, and not by a repeat of the half hearted effort by the Obama administration that led to reconstituting Iran's nuclear effort a second time with US financial assistance. For a day on Saturday it appeared that mediators Pakistan and Turkey had accomplished for Iran just that, to the alarm of Republicans in general and in particular senior Senator Graham. Many sections of the media including the WSJ and the business community, see this as a repetition of the mistakes made by Obama and his administration. Not only did Obama not act to work with Republicans on a border policy- simply protecting himself from Republican attack by deportation policies. Obama continued the war in Afghanistan/Iraq for the same reason to protect his chances for reelection. He also used immigration policy to get the Hispanic vote in the closing months of the reelection year. Obama's other foreign policy failure was in believing Iran had been persuaded to give up nuclear weapons, and gave Iran the financial backing that could easily be shifted from economic to military uses and rebuild the nuclear program,  which he has handed to a future Republican adminstration. Obama also ignored how this would affect the economic wellbeing of the Iranian people with the kind of protests and suppression that has happened in 2026. Democrats and the media, some Republicans, are simply ignoring these errors and have never really faced up to the problems in the Middle East and asked the question why there are 5 decades of wars in the Middle East, and coups, strife, wars for the entire period since 1950. In this situation the US, China, India, EU, Brazil and other nations can learn from this experience and act to secure alternative sources of energy, speed up renewable energy transition, and rapidly end all dependence/intervention on a perpetually strife ridden Middle East, which much of the US and international media in a baffling way ignores or does not say outright. ...

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At this point in May (May 22, 2026) a glimmer of hope appears for settling both the crisis in Hormuz and the Ukraine war. Pakistan, Turkey and China following DJT visit to China may be pushing Iran to lower the scale of the conflict. China's first priority was to be accepted by the US at the Beijing meeting as an equal power with the US, and keen to show its willingness to bear responsibility for peaceful resolution in conflict zones as a sign of its maturity as a world power. Much of this is not shown in the media as it is mostly done behind the scenes in communications that the media knows nothing about. Note that even in the depths of the Cold War during the Hungarian revolution of 1956 and Soviet action in Budapest, the US and the Soviets when their economies were not intertwined as the US and China are today, were still talking to each other to limit the conflicts to low level conflict. Hong Kong takeover, China's actions near Taiwan, China's presence in Latin America, Chinese cooperation with Iran, and Russia on Ukraine, China's economic competition in rare earths, are relatively smaller levels of friction considering 1950's Soviet's and the US. At the same time China and the Us are aware of a new bloc emerging in Oslo in May, where India is merging its economy with the Nordic economies of Sweden, Denmark and Norway, and of the European Union and Germany, creating a new bloc of 2 billion people that can only grow rapidly with India's potential to exceed growth rates of 20% in the 600 million Eastern region for a decade. EU would make the shift to strategic partnership with India displacing the vital role the European Union has played in China's growth and economy. This would create new pressures for Russian president Putin to decide it is time to listen to a friend India and de-escalate lower the level of conflict with an initial peace deal that would lead to more talks on a final settlement. Because Russia would have a harder time tackling both India and Germany at the same time. NYT shows on the same day May 22 a report on Russia and a report by the Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Sonegard that say the elites in Russia and Putin were by January 2026 having very serious discussion to change the administration, bring Igor Sechin as negotiaor to end the Ukraine conflict before serious, possibly irreversible damage, to the Russian economy. Sweden's Sonegard says that between 2020 and 2024 Russian economy declined by 8%, not grew by 13% as official figures show, inflation is much higher than 5% as official figures show, and credit is tightening, bankruptcies expected, growth even with oil prices up down to 0.4% for 2026. During 20 years running Russia Putin's No. 1 priority, his life's mission was to restore, then exceed by a large margin the living standards of the Russian people. Having at such great cost accomplished the goal of gaining recognition as a Northern Power in Europe, having gained much of Russian speaking eastern Ukraine, Putin could wisely with self respect wind down Ukraine conflict for good. The US gains something similar to Northern Power status for Russia in its recommitment to the Monroe Doctrine, with Russia withdrawing from any involvement- and China tacitly doing the same-  in the western hemisphere. With that the US can tackle its own losses that match Russian losses in lives- loss of more American lives than in the Korean and Vietnam and WWI combined to drug smuggling from Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, and restoring rule of law in Cuba, Venezuela, and through drug cartel free Mexico good governance in Mexico.  ...

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Iran's oil production filling up existing storage leading to oil well shutoffs May 2026. Tankers near oil fields are used as storage as Iran faces prospect of filled up storage tanks and ships at sea at some point in the next few weeks. It has slow throttled production, increased storage, yet with no oil getting out of Hormuz straits Iran will at some point in the next couple of weeks have to shutdown some of the oil wells. The oil tanks cannot be monitored for storage level and their is existing storage in refineries and other places making it difficult to say precisely when but it could be in the next couple of weeks. This plays a part in Iran's thinking looking for ways to settle the conflict. US insists on getting all nuclear material out of Iran as an indispensable condition and the full and entire reason for the war not anything against the Iranian people. It is a basic idea- non-proliferation on nuclear weapons. Why in the Middle East- the answer is that for 5 decades there are wars in the Middle East, many small nations created by the British and the French who take no responsibility today, and the prospect of spread is real, sectarian conflicts for centuries, and a situation worse than in the Balkans where World War I started. The region extends from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan, each nation destroyed by 5 decades of war including many Americans, Russians Europeans dead.  Costs of War Project at Brown University estimates are that 4.5 to 4.7 million people died in these wars. The US is not a colonial power like the British and the French, the Dutch. It seeks no oil as it is self sufficient, and it seeks no strife or involvement in the centuries old saga of the sectarian religious conflicts in the Middle East, having settled its own between Catholics and Protestants in the 17th century so that the Industrial Revolution and Scientific Revolutions could take place to create the Modern World of science, medicine, and industry we know today. Many of the nations of the Middle East seem averse to whole heartedly embracing the European contributions in this achievement as China, India, and America have done, in the process changing how their people think and live, and strive daily to further these achievements. ...

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Michael Boskin, the elder president Bush's chairman of the Council of Economc Advisors was instrumental in setting up the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Here he points to the dire need to open up trade between India and Pakistan. Trade today between the two countries is $2.7 billion. Under trade models Boskin says the trade could be 20 times larger, about $50 billion. This would increase benefits and wages in both countries and is badly needed and long overdue.

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The India Pakistan conflict escalates as Pakistan retaliates for an Indian air attack on a terrorist camp deep inside Pakistan. Pakistan sends planes to attack Indian positions in Kashmir. One Indian plane is downed in Indian air strikes inside Pakistan. This follows a terrorist attack that killed 40 Indian soldiers in a convoy in Pulwama, Kashmir. In 2016 India attacked Pakistan targets across the border after a terrorist attack.

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Wisdom and common sense made Michael Boskin to suggest that trade between India and Pakistan should increase in 2012. Boskin was the elder Bush's chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and helped setup the NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement. Boskin says in this WSJ article on April 15, 2012 that trade between India and Pakistan of $2.7 billion was only two thirds of the trade India had with much smaller Sri Lanka. In 2020 OEC data show it to be less than $300 million for trade between India and Pakistan,  and in the Pakistan floods year of 2022 with a third of the country below water the smooth flow of goods and products over borders never made more sense. Boskin said in the WSJ in 2012 that normally bilateral trade follows the "gravity model" of being proportional to the countries GDP and inversely proportional to the distance between them. He then cites estimates of Amrita Batra of Nehru University and Mohsin Khan of the Petersen Institute that show bilateral trade should be 20 times the $2.7 billion in 2012. This would be $50 billion in 2012 ten years ago. In 2020 this would be over $100 billion, not one three hundredth of that at $300 million in 2020 an alarmingly low level of trade between neighboring countries.   ...

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The low number of confirmed cases and small number of deaths in India and Pakistan is being analyzed for what to expect in the coming months from June to August. Some experts see this as just the beginning that the peak will come later on. India has about 75,000 cases and Pakistan 35,000. Testing has lagged behind with only 1.5 tests per thousand people compared to 26 per thousand in the U.S.  one reason the confirmed case count is lower. Some confidence is being drawn from the deaths- 2415 in India and 737 in Pakistan. This is because only 2.2% of cases in India and 3.3% in Pakistan led to deaths, compared to 14.3% in UK and 5.5% in China, 6% in U.S., using John Hopkins database. One reason given is that only 6.4% of India's population and 4.3% of Pakistan's is over 65 years age. Compare mean age in Italy 46 years to 27 in India and 23 in Pakistan. And there is plenty of sunlight which appear to destroy the virus. Other factors that may influence the virus- taking of the tuberculosis vaccine and routine exposure to more pathogens in both countries. Prime minister Modi in India is taking no chances considering the size of India's population. He has put forward a $280 billion economic package and is moving in deliberate carefully prepared steps to lift lockdowns with the current phase No. 4 allowing more reopening. The shift now is to a more self reliant economy in industrial production making "local more vocal."  During the lockdown the large rail network and postal networks with their millions of employees, IT technology driven banking with Aadhar identification for direct deposit to hundreds of millions of the most needy citizens, and farmers, proved to be the most reliable and supportive. ...

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BBC looks at the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 that allocates waters of 6 rivers. Waters of three rivers in the east going to India, and 80% of waters of three western rivers including the Indus river going to Pakistan. Both countries are required to share waters data to manage agriculture. India is upstream for these rivers.  In the same way China is upstream of the river Brahmaputra in India and is building dams in Tibet to control flow of water downstream to India. There is no treaty for the Brahmaputra between India and China as China has occupied Tibet since 1950's and acquired Aksai Chin in the Kashmir region from Pakistan. Before 1950 for ten centuries Tibet region was a distant land mostly unreachable from China and China was never in control of Tibet. Kashmir region for 15 out of 18 centuries since 100 BC was a land of Vedic, Buddhist Shiva cultures. For China the occupation of Tibet on the borders of India creates a situation that is not sustainable for long and stretches resources at a time when India is rapidly building the same level of infrastructure on its side of the border. Chinese people in the provinces bordering Tibet have shown little interest in moving to the vastly different high country of Tibet. At some point in history not too distant by 2050, China (and Japan) will revert to its Buddhist religion and culture and with respect for Buddhist culture see Sarnath, Kushinagar, and Bodh Gaya more as sacred pilgrimage places in India, a common heritage with India to be treasured and revered. Something the Europeans and Americans cannot comprehend, the depth and breath of Vedic Buddhist and Shiv culture in Asia. ...

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The Economist points out (in this cover issue on India-Pakistan relations) several fundamental facts. The first is that the current state of relations betweeen India and Pakistan hurts Pakistan the most. It makes a much smaller country and smaller economy bear the burden of defense against a large neighbor- defense takes up much needed allocation of funds for infrastructure and development, education and healthcare. It also weakens democratic institutions and their development by an overdependence on the military for governance. Poor India-Pakistan relations have significant adverse effects on the U.S. In fighting the Taliban U.S. forces are fighting a force that Pakistan's military helped create and support from its early beginnings as a way to counter Indian influence. With an Indian-Pakistani peace settlement of issues in Kashmir and other outstanding issues the U.S. would be in a significantly better position to disengage from the region, especially when the entire Middle East is moving in a new direction in 2011. Consider the difficulties in establishing peace in Northern Ireland, and between Turkey and Greece, and the difficulties of establishing peace between India and Pakistan cannot be considered even more difficult. Pakistan and India muddle along- neither side is doing much to take the initiative. For the U.S. disengagement from South Asia can be best achieved by pushing for a settlement between the two countries. Pakistan and India have much to gain from a settlement. Considering the progress made in Ireland, such places as Yugoslavia, and in Turkish-Greek relations, there is a lot more that can be done and should be done to bring India and Pakistan together. In Ireland diplomatic efforts were made by U.S. envoy George Mitchell, and in Yugoslavia U.S. envoy Holbrooke made diplomatic efforts towards the Dayton accords. Greek-Turkish relations have advanced to the point where Erdogan and Papandreou, the Greek and Turkish prime ministers, discuss solutions to the Greek debt crisis. This includes options to reduce Greece's defense expenditures in the light of Turkey's new foreign policies. The lack of such efforts to break the deadlock between India and Pakistan by the U.S,. the U.K. and other countries involved in the NATO mission in Afghanistan, the emphasis on a military solution supported first by Gen. McChrystal, and then by by Gen. Petraeus, all show a lack of understanding of the real issues that need to be tackled- issues relating to a peace settlement between India and Pakistan....

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Pakistan prime minister Nawas Sharif's friendly overtures to India. The need for improved trade and economic relations with India to improve Pakistan's economy and fears that the military and intelligence services or extremist groups could torpedo these efforts.

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In an effort to normalize trade relations Pakistan's government plans to move forward with a step by step approach that will end the restrictions on Indian imports by Jan 1, 2013. The first step is ending a system that allows a list of 2000 import items from India and replacing it with a list of 600 items from India that are banned, allowing the flow of all other goods. This negative list will be eliminated by the end of 2012 leaving in place restrictions on sensitive defense items and some staple goods. Ashfaque Khan, dean of Pakistan's National University of Sciences and Technology Business School advises the government on trade issues. The trade between India and Pakistan stands at $2.7 billion for the year ending March 2011. This is much smaller than the $60 billion in trade between India and China which is growing. The trade between India and Pakistan is likely to grow significantly in the next ten years as trade barriers are removed and normal trade is established.

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After a promising start the Pakistan batting order collapses with 8 wickets lost for 36 runs over 78 balls. Player of the match is bowler Jasprit Bumrah with Rohit Sharma a close second for a fast paced 86 runs. It gives India a 7 wicket win with many overs to spare.

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India says it will divert water from the eastern tributaries of the Indus River away from Pakistan to the Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir, in response to a terrorist attack. Under a World Bank brokered treaty the waters of the Indus river are shared by both countries. India's Modi government faces elections in 2019.

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India's Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, provides briefings on the Indian response of May 7th in the early hours of the morning to the terrorist attacks on tourists in Kashmir with efforts to target tourism and destroy the Kashmir economy.

Indian missile attacks were launched on specific terrorist camps inside Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir. It is purely a response to terrorism and efforts to derail the modernization of the largest population economy in Asia of 1.4 billion people. Indian response was kept limited to terrorist targets and avoided Pakistan military.

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In an escalation of hostilities Pakistan sends fighter jets to attack Indian positions in Kashmir.

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US president Trump, working through his Secretary of State Rubio and VP Vance sets up a immediate ceasefire in the war between Pakistan and India of May 7-10, 2025. Vance had cut short his trip to India in Jaipur on the day of the Pahalgam attack of April 22, 2025, by terrorists sponsored and supported by Pakistan.  In response India targeted missiles on 18 terrorist camps targets in Pakistan occupied Kashmir and Pakistan on May 7. Drone attacks followed on both sides followed by Indian missile attacks on 3 Pakistan airbases, An immediate ceasefire was accepted by both sides on May 10, 2025. After 75 years of such terrorist activity and militias from Pakistan since 1947 when partition of British Empire created Pakistan, 1.4 billion Indians have lost their patience. Especially because the attack was intended to cut short the revival of the Kashmir economy and modernization of India. In 2024 24 million tourists visited Kashmir reviving its economy. India has Vikshit Bharat 2047 modernization plan to make it an advanced economy, there is a feeling in India that modernization is essential no matter what the difficulties are, Pakistan essentially the Punjab, just one state as its economy stagnates and becomes a sponsor of terrorism. ...

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Economic progress in South Asia may finally put behind it simmering political tensions is evident from nature of this proposal on Kashmir by Pakistan. This proposal by President Musharraf is for India and Pakistan to recognize the "line of control" as a de facto border, gradually withdraw troops, and support a new body to run the government in Kashmir. Musharraf say Pakistan then "will have to, yes," give up its claims on Kashmir. The region would have to be given more autonomy to run its affairs. Musharraf would still have to win support from the political parties for this proposal to take shape and be able to control militants in the region who oppose a settlement.

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With a democratically elected government not the real power in Pakistan and most power resting in the army and spy agency, India-Pakistan negotiations are going nowhere at this time. More tension in Kashmir and Afghanistan complicates the situation.

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India agrees to an immediate ceasefire after a call from Pakistan's head of military operations for a ceasefire. The conflict started with attack on tourism that was reviving the Kashmir economy after three decades through a terrorist attack killing 26 tourists in Phalgam, Kashmir on  April 22, 2025 in the mountains near the Pir Panjal range. 24 million tourists visited Kashmir in 2024. Indian response was swift on May 7 early morning hours attacking 18 terrorist camps inside Pakistan occupied Kashmir and inside Pakistan. India called it a act of self-defense to Pakistan sponsored state terrorism going back to 1947. What is different in this brief 4 day war is that India made it economic with efforts at IMF to make terrorism an issue for loans to Pakistan, and ending the Indus Waters Treaty on water sharing. Pakistan economy is struggling with no debt relief from China, making it turn to the IMF, a politically split population with Opposition leader Imran Khan in jail, and continued domination by the military over civilian govenrment. On May 9 drone attacks were launched from Pakistan using Turkish made drones in large numbers on cities and towns in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab. Blackouts were placed in India by May 8 in all cities in the north and in Pakistan. India responded with its own drones and missile attacks on three military airbases as the war broadened to military targets on May 10. US mediated a ceasefire through Saudis and Turkey. Earlier Saudis and Iran were in New Delhi with whom India has good relations to get a ceasefire. Mr. Trump's efforts behind the scenes secured an agreement. VP Vance had cut short an Indian trip in Jaipur on April 22. India and the US are allies in the Indo-Pacific, and India and Russia have decades of friendly relations. China now uses Pakistan as a proxy state, but does not provide the economic aid it needs, for which it has turned to the IMF.    ...