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Tampa Bay area is one of the ten most high risk areas in the world, according to the World Bank. Estimates of damage from a severe hurricane are as high as $175 billion in a 2015 study. The Washington Post's Anna Phillips looks at this region which has grown by about 200 percent in the last two decades. Pinellas County home to St Petersburg and Clearwater, Tampa Bay area, now has 3.2 million people. Developers are lulled into a sense of complacency, says this report with the lack of severe hurricanes in recent decades. The last time a severe hurricane hit was 1921.  This area has 700 miles of shoreline. The problem is that sea levels are rising from climate change, Tampa Bay area has 5 inches of sea level rising, plus the Bay area water is shallower. Water pushed into the narrow area of Tampa Bay would likely rise further. This causes the most damage from waves and floods. Sea levels are higher in 2023 compared to 2009 by 7 inches in Charleston SC, Wilmington NC, Galveston Texas, and in Tybee Island Georgia.   ...

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Solar power in communities in Tampa and Fort Myers in Florida held up during hurricane Ian even as the connections to the grid were lost. 

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Bush's last news conference, or exit interview as he called it. He thinks about Katrina hurricane relief failure but says 30,000 people were lifted off rooftops. Iraq, the security council resolution 1441 did make it clear- disclose, disarm or face serious consequences. He thinks the "Mission Accomplished" banner on an aircraft carrier after liberating Iraq was a bad idea, and "Abu Ghraib", a big disappointment". But regarding Guantanamo Bay and Iraq he thinks it may be that the elite and some some countries in Europe find it unpopular. Some say that the moral standing of the US is damaged in the world. But he says go to Africa, go to India, and ask about their view of America. Go to China and ask. "But people still understand that America stands for freedom, that America is a country that provides such great hope."

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This report in NYT looks at the Barbados debt crisis. Barbados spends 55% of its budget to pay interest on debt (servicing the debt). That leaves about 5% for health and climate change. Years of borrowing that ignored basic rules of financing have created serious problems that were compounded by the pandemic and hurricanes. This report shows that the total deb of Barbados was not known to the central bank. Borrowing was approved at exorbitant interest rates. One loan with Credit Suisse for $150 million is shown here with interest rates that lead it to become a catastrophic amount owed. Many such loans without any checks and supervision of total loans taken, lack of financial prudence rules followed, lack of transparency and alerts on borrowing and spending tend to create this kind of situation in many poor countries. About two thirds of developing countries are in this situation owing one third of their budget for debt service or paying interest on the loan. The situation is unstable to begin with. Then on comes along a hurricane or natural disaster such as the pandemic and the unstable situation becomes a catastrophe. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, the Caribbean nations, nations in Africa, face debt crises that are getting worse. It is not inevitable or destiny for nations today, consider the examples of large nations such as Japan, China, South Korea and India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and one can see that development finance can be prudent and responsible, so that situations such as the pandemic can be handled without going into disarray. ...

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Effects of the hurricane in the hard hit rural western part of North Carolina and the controversy surrounding the Republican candidate for governor are likely to affect voting in the state in 2024. The margin is razor thin for Republicans says this report in WSJ, less than 0.8%.

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After hurricane Helene only about 10% of FEMA workers are available for Hurricane Milton headed towards the Tampa Bay Area at 175 miles per hour.

Christopher Flavelle of NYT  points out FEMA desperately needs more funding and staff as it is responding simultaneously to many disasters. The full effects of climate change in more and more natural disasters all across the US have not been taken into account for the added funding and staffing needed. In this situation FEMA is spread thin causing other problems such as attrition and burnout and unfilled positions.

The Government Accountability Office report found in 2023 that 35% of FEMA's positions were unfilled, because of “rising disaster activity during the year, which increased burnout and employee attrition.”

There are also lot of people who are out of work in disaster areas who can be pulled in for disaster work.  

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Effects of the two storms in Florida and North Carolina reduced job growth in October. Overall the unemployment rate was steady at 4.1%. Job growth and the unemployment come from 2 different surveys one from households for the unemployment rate and one from employers by the Labor Department for job growth.  The hurricanes and weather events meant people were still being paid but could not get to jobs during the month of October, the estimate of this number was 512,000 in 2024. In 2016 and 2018 with hurricanes this number was about 250,000 in each year. 512,000 in 2024 is double the size from 8 years earlier in 2016, it shows that this could reach double this or 1 million jobs affected if another 4 years are lost pretending that climate change is "a scam" or that it was not serious, doing nothing and reversing direction. On average over 20 years the loss of jobs from hurricanes is about 69,000, excluding 2016 and 2018 it would be about 45,000. This shows that there are effects that are growing from climate change on jobs at an accelerated pace, another economic warning sign for the need for climate change action. ...

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Craig Fugate, head of FEMA, a former paramedic and first responder during emergencies himself, is down to earth and understands the needs of communities to get back on their feet after natural disasters. He was appointed by president Obama in 2009. He is responsible for the makeover at FEMA since hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans revealing the problems at FEMA.

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With the natural disasters following one after the other as hurricanes Milton and Helene have done in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, the dire disaster funding situation at FEMA in 2024 needs to be tackled. The Nation is throwing dollars in wasted spending with capital market misallocation at a time when no provision is made for climate change action in disaster relief. To compound the insult AI billionaires are asking for the equivalent of the GDP of many European nations to fund AI for profit.

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Captain Tom Moore a soldier from the Second World War II who marks his 100th birthday and has become a national hero in Britain. He decided to take 100 laps in his garden before he turned 100 to thank the Nation Health Service for a surgery of his hip. The activity created a fund raising drive for NHS raising 30 million pounds.

See the Royal Mail mailbox painted blue in his honor for the 100th birthday in this story, and the Spitfire and Hurricane planes flown  by the RAF in his honor. Tom showed humor in adversity, and a mature wisdom, no-nonsense attitude, to be an inspiration for young and old, says Britain's army chief.

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It takes years to rebuild after a hurricane even with homeowners insurance as this report shows in WSJ, and people on low incomes are affected more with mortgage delinquencies and bankruptcies. People with resources still have to borrow to rebuild their lives setting them back years.

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A 2007 video of Obama speaking at Hampton University in Virginia on race relations, on the slow relief sent to Hurricane Katrina affected residents of New Orleans because they were black, praising pastor Wright, and presenting a different view on race relations than President Obama has made in public appearances. The video has surfaced again in the final weeks of the 2012 presidential campaign, especially as polarization has increased in the last four years.

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This graphical presentation, a fascinating look in the NYT shows how the different epidemics, natural disasters and other events compare over the world over the last century. It shows that using a normal mortality rate for a city the worst was Philadelphia in the 1918 spanish flu epidemic. How does this one compare with today's coronavirus pandemic would be a reader question. New York is shown at 5.8 X, Bergamo in Italy at 6.7 X and Philadelphia at 7.3 X. This means New York suffered about 6 times the deaths compared to a normal year. Fifteen thousand people lost their lives in Philadelphia in 1918. As one can see New York went through a lot. The race riots and curfews added to the difficulties the city has faced. When you get past 5.0 X it is only when there is famine or war that one sees this level of deaths. Bergamo in Italy suffered the worst in Europe. Madrid was hit hard at 4.6 X. 14,000 people died in Madrid in the month between mid March to mid April, with a normal deaths in the city at 3000 for a month. In Latin America Lima, Peru, did worse in the coronavirus at 3.99 X, that exceeded New York city in the Spanish flu virus of 1918 at 3.97 X. For New York city this means the coronavirus was at 5.8 X a bigger impact on the city for the mid March to mid April period compared to October 1918. More than 8000 people died in Lima compared to a normal 3000.  Guayaquil, Ecuador is at 5.50 X hit very hard. In Europe Paris is at 2.6 X, and London at 3.0 X, Barcelona at 3.0 X.  By comparison Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans and it is at 2.4 X showing that what these cities in Europe went through was like a hurricane going through the cities.  ...

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Warming of oceans by climate change cause US hurricanes Helene and Milton 2024. Ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico is much higher in October 2024 than the average heat content 2013-2023, as shown in this NYT chart. At a single glance one can see climate change at work. This is real America. And FEMA is stretched thin, not adequately funded for the natural disasters happening all over the US, yet Congress has failed to act, and the AI billionaires shown in today's NYT piece "Imperial Reach," talk about trillions of dollars they wish to divert from essential needs of the Nation in climate change action, disaster relief, childcare, health, and education, more than the GDP of European nations. In effect writing off the Nation's future and future generations.  

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Three events September 29 Sunday to October 5 Saturday described as "week from hell" for the Biden White House in this report. President Biden can feel a huge sigh of relief for having overcome in each event. The hurricane Helene devastating a swath of western North Carolina, parts of rural Georgia, and western Florida. The president was working round the clock for relief efforts and visiting the flooded regions. Then there was the large missile strike by Iran over Israel following its bombing of Lebanon. This was averted using US missile defense. And in the middle of all this there was the International Longshoreman's Union 45,000 members announcing a strike that  closed all ports on the East Coast from Maine to Texas. President Biden supported the dockworkers efforts to have shipping ports owners in Asia and Europe to share huge profits with dockworkers.  All the time the hard work at the White House and agencies for relief efforts paid off. Republican governors in North Carolina and Georgia praised the relief efforts. And Zient, Buttigieg, Transportation Secretary Brainard at NEC, were on the phone with port owners overseas at 5.30 am Thursday to setup a stopgap agreement till Jan 15 for settlement. The process and hard work paid off.   ...

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Wha is life like for a grocer, a food store owner in a rural county in America. Frank Timberlake in this story is a former law enforcement officer running a store in Northhampton County, North Carolina. He looks after his employees, and his customers in this rural county.  Rich Square Market is the only grocery store in this town. He is all on his own as he deals with supplies of expensive Charmin toilet paper, or shortage of paper towels, and the rising price of eggs.

His worries- if one worker get sick the rest are quarantined. He has kept the store open through hurricanes, floods, yet this is tough. He jumps when he sneezes, sleeps in a separate room at home, and can't hold his wife's hand.

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Non farm payrolls are up by 261,000 and the U..S. unemployment rate drops to 4.1% for October 2017, according to the Labor Department. A broader measure that takes into account Americans who are in part time work having difficulty finding full time work was at 7.9%. Yet wage growth remains sluggish. Inflation with food and energy cost inflation after the hurricanes taken out remains at less than 2% below the Fed target, to the surprise of Fed chairwoman Yellen and new chairman Powell.

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1. ACCELERATION OF DECLINING PRODUCTION FROM GULF OF MEXICO AS DRILLING RIGS LEAVE THE GULF. Offshore oil production mostly in the Gulf fell by 19% between 2003 and 2005. Natural gas production fell by about 22% from 2001 to 2004, according to EIA. The drilling rigs jack-up rigs and deep-water rigs that drill for oil and gas are declining rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico. There were 148 rigs in 2001, now only 90 remain with more leaving soon. Many of the rigs that are leaving are jack-up rigs, used for drilling for natural gas in shallower waters, and this should lead to a pronounced effect on natural gas production. Gulf Gas reservoirs that use these jack-up rigs are quickly exhausted requiring new wells to be drilled to just maintain production. Fewer rigs available mean upward pressure on natural gas prices more so than oil because gas is a market supplied locally. EIA estimates natural gas will move from recent close (July 5, 2006) of $6.10 per million BTU's to a price of $10.00 by end of 2007. This compares with a price in 2001 of $2.43. Hurrican related disruptions pushed oil prices up by $10 a barrel for hurricanes Katrina and Rita, in each of two years, so there will be continued upward pressure on oil price from this acceleration in production declines in the Gulf. 2. SEA CHANGE IN THE OFFSHORE DRILLING RIG MARKET, IN DAY RATES, IN PREFERRED DRILLING LOCATIONS, AND IN RIG PRODUCTION. The hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed 5 rigs. What is a bigger effect is that drilling companies are signing longterm deals with companies overseas. Global Santa Fe Corp. for instance signed a deal last month to send 4 jack-up rigs to Saudi Aramco at $160,000 per day, for 4 years. Ensco International will send one to Tunisia at rates approaching $200,000 for 2 years. There are hotter prospects for petroleum offshore in the Middle east, and in Africa, whereas the easier drilling spots in the Gulf have already been tapped. Worldwide 91 major offshore rigs are under construction compared to 10 in 2003 according to ODS-Petrodata. The new rigs may take till 2009 and may have delays so as to come out after 2009. They cost $160-190 million for one jack-up rig and about $600 million for one deep-water rig. All this has pushed day rates throug the roof. BP PLC agreed to pay Transocean Inc $520,000 a day for three years for a massive drill ship. The same ship cost BP PLC $185,000 a day in 2004. The drilling ship is as large as 3 football fields and can drill in oceans upto 10,000 feet deep. ...

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Nagourney Igielnik and Baker, give this report in the NYT that shows on questions of temperament and character and who you could trust, there is a shift towards Harris. In addition 75% of the people see the country headed not in the right direction, and on this issue of change Harris does better. Then there are he states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia, where things are being sorted out with the hurricanes adding to the picture. In the west there is also Arizona and Nevada. Also of interest is that in states like Texas there is only a 6% lead for Republicans. Lyndon Johnson was Democrat from Texas JFK's running mate and set up Social Security and Medicare as we know it today. It suggests a realignment from the old rural urban divide and college educated vs not college educated ideas separating the two parties. A new state university educated, small college educated, or community college educated is also emerging that like Harris's running mate from the State University of Minnesota in Mankato, sees things differently, and is spread across all parts rural, urban, white, minority, and from lower income families. These people are looking for who they can trust personally to improve their lives and make up 60-70% of American households.  ...

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Florida added three million people and North and South Carolina two million people over the last 20 years from domestic migration mostly from the north and northeast and midwest to south and south east and western US. Places such as Phoenix and Las Vegas in the West have grown rapidly. This has put more people at risk from climate change events across the US, from heat waves lasting 100 days in Phoenix and hurricanes in Florida and the Carolinas.

This NYT report shows maps by county and color, where the people are moving in and moving out.