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Kingsley of the NYT provides an indepth series of reports on Turkey. Here he describes the tensions and dissension in Turkish society for teachers, refugees, government officials, students and others, and the difficult choices as Turkey faces a referendum in April 2017 on whether to grant more powers to the presidency under Erdogan.

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This NYT report by Patrick Kingsley shows how the hopes for peace with Kurds in Turkey under the Erdogan government have faded. By 2015 peace talks faltered with Kurdish separatist groups. Kingsley's report shows towns such as Sirnak and Cizre in the southeastern part of Turkey are now ghost towns after government troops and tanks moved in. This means that Turkey not only has about 3 million refugees from Syria and Iraq fleeing the war there, but also large numbers of refugees in Kurdish areas inside Turkey. Added to this are the tensions between the party of prime minister Erdogan and the opposition, following a crackdown and as the referendum for granting new powers to the presidency under Mr. Erdogan approaches.

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Efforts by the government of prime minister Erdogan to keep Turkey's interest rates at the same rate as inflation, with an effective real interest rate of zero. Erdogan strikes out at what he calls the "higher interest rate lobby." Erdogan's party fears a downturn in the Turkish economy could affect the government's referendum on a new constitution. The IMF sees a high credit growth to GDP ratio as a warning light for countries and Turkey is identified as one of the main countries facing this problem.

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Turkey's constitutional amendment to centralize powers in the office of the president was approved by 51.2% of voters with 48.8% voters saying "no." About 85% of 55 million eligible voters voted in the election. It was seen as not offering a level playing field for opposition parties to organize and have freedom of assembly, after action taken by the president against the media and opposition following the coup attempt in 2016. The opposition Republican Party says about 2.5 million votes may have been compromised. Also showing the wide split in the country between urban and rural, a majority of voters from the largest cities of Istanbul and Ankara voted against expanding the president's powers. The constitutional amendment now becomes effective in Nov. 2019 after new elections. Turkey's electoral boards are adminstered by judges, yet the integrity of the system of justice has suffered from the dismissal of about one third of all judges since July 2016.

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This editorial in the NYT on May 23, 2015, says the government of president Erdogan is continuing its suppression of the media in Turkey before the parliamentary elections in June 2015. In the last parliamentary elections in 2015 Mr. Erdogan's AKP party won 326 seats, 4 short of the three fifths majority needed to have a referendum on a proposed change to the constitution. The editorial points out that the actions against the media only weaken the fragile fabric of democracy in Turkey following a decade of the AKP in power, when the country needs to have an open debate on competing economic and social policies put forward by different parties.

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Turkey's prime minister Erdogan wins a third term. He wins half of the vote and gets 325 seats in parliament. But he fails to get the 330 seats in parliament needed to make changes to the constitution and submit it to a referendum. This also falls short of the 367 absolute majority to get a new constitution adopted by parliament without a referendum. WSJ says the Turkish prime minister appeared to get the message from Turkish voters- any change in the constitution should be done by national consensus and he needs to soften his authoritarian edges. In accepting the results he said: "We'll go to the opposition and we'll seek consultation and consensus. The responsibility has risen and so has our humility." Erogan's party gets credit for managing the economy, increasing exports fourfold in the last ten years and tripling per capita income. This also comes at a critical time in the Middle East as Turkey seeks to provide a role model for Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, Iraq and other countries in the Middle East becoming free from dictatorial rule and trying to establish democracy....

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Patrick Kingsley of the NYT provides this report from Turkey. He talks to the wife of a journalist jailed in the recent crackdown on media by president Erdogan. He also talks to a loyalist of Erdogan, a muhtar, who says he resisted army troops during a coup attempt. Beyond the different perspectives on events is a different conception of Turkey, one that sees Turkey in the sense of a liberal democracy with European values, and the other of a Islamic society with nationalist views. Views that coexisted in Turkey's subconscious mind upto this time, but are now in conflict. 

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In all elections since 2002 Mr. Erdogan has prevailed except June 2015. Much of the support for Erdogan is a result of economic gains by Turkey including 70% rise in per capita incomes since 2003.  These gains are under threat now because of heavy dependence on foreign investment and the decline of the currency Lira from 2.15 to the dollar in 2014 to 4.50 to the dollar in June 2018, losing half its value since the election of 2014. Experts say recent developments in Turkey have dented investor confidence, with investors uncertain about Mr. Erdogan's plans. The presidential candidate most likely to face Erdogan in a runoff election if Mr. Erdogan does not get 50% of the vote on June 24 is Mr. Muharrem Ince. Ince says he sees a wind of change, saying Turks are "very tired of this one-man regime" and that unlike before the economic trouble is so severe and harder to cover. This time the opposition is better coordinated and the secular CHP Party which was once dominant after Ataturk, is running in an alliance with traditional Islamist party Saadet, and with new secular nationalist Iyi party. Erdogan has called early elections a year and half ahead of time because he sees the economic troubles are at an early stage and his AKP Party would do better now than in 18 months when the economy may be in worse shape than it is now. ...

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Interviews by Robett Pollock with Iraq's Maliki and Turkey's Erdogan, and what they have to say about the future of 2 places in the Middle East that the US has a lot to do with. Erdogan proposes a new constitution for Turkey that will go to a referendum to the Turkish people. He won 47% of the vote for this party in recent elections.

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Kingsley of the NYT provides this report from Turkey describing the impact of the conflict with the Kurds inside and outside the country.

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One of the problems facing the Republican People's Party, the CHP, is how to connect with religious voters. CHP is the party that is most closely associated with modern Turkey's founder, Kemal Ataturk. CHP was the main party in Turkey till the recent dominance of the AKP Party in elections. AKP drew support from the more religious and rural population in the parts of Turkey outside cities such as Ankara and Istanbul. CHP rarely identified itself with street protest and remained aloof from ordinary people making it hard for it to contest elections against the AKP - winning Ankara and Istanbul but losing the elections in the last decade. The AKP also allied itself with Turkey's Ottoman heritage and appealed to nationalist sentiment against a conservative aloof CHP leading to a split in Turkey between the secular urban and the religious minded more rural people. CHP also did not work with minorities such as the Kurds to build a broader coalition. This is changing with the march from Ankara to Istanbul led by CHP leader Kilicdaroglu. The march came after the justice system appeared to be allied with president Erdogan, and a 25 year sentence was given to one of Kilicdaroglu's deputies. Erdogan now appoints the judges in the judiciary and the crackdown on the opposition since the failed coup of 2016, has led to a sense that Turkey is now run as a one party state. An estimated 1.5 million Turks participated in the rally in Istanbul, according to DW, showing that the opposition is forming to the arbitrary rule since the emergency powers assumed by the president. For the last decade Erdogan and the AKP Party formed the government. What changed since 2016 is the new constitution that gives new powers to the president and the arbitrary rule since the crackdown on the opposition that intensified after 2014, and which has increased since the failed coup in 2016.  ...

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Egyptian leader ElBaradei describes his talk with U.S. Secretary of State Kerry and E.U. leader Ashton on the day of the coup on July 3, 2013 to convince them about the need for the military to intervene to oust president Morsi. He says two and ahalf years have been wasted but this time Egyptians have to get it right. Morsi was elected with the help of liberals, but failed in ElBaradei's view to form an inclusive government and respect all sides of opinion, including the young people who formed the core of protests against years of military rule.

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Jackson Diehl, deputy editorial page editor of the Washington Post, says its hard not to conclude that Obama is really not engaged with the struggle for democracy and democratic process in the countries of the Middle East and the Arab World. His voice is only heard sporadically, and is missing altogether at crucial times, as the people of Egypt, Libya, and other countries express their democratic aspirations. This has been the case from the beginning of this struggle and continues today. He cites an Arab opinion poll, from Shibley Telhami of the University of Maryland with Zogby International, which shows a positive view of Obama at 34%, compared with 39% in 2009. When asked which countries have played a positive role, France and Turkey are given first place and the U.S. is close to China. This is because France's Sarkozy and Turkey have been actively engaged, and Obama has been silent for most of the time. Diehl says most Egyptians he talked to in Cairo in a recent visit, think that Obama's focus is on going along with the military and Israel. ...