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Nine other departments have been already moved to a new campus in Darlington. It is part of relocating civil servants to modern offices from the constricted space in the old buildings of No. 9 and No. 10 Downing Street. The Treasury could be split with a new growth ministry in the North of a England, as favored byBank of England economist Andy Haldane. And parts of the Prime Minister's office could be transfered to thre North of England. Burnham has the Makerfield Test which simply asks are the new constitutents served by the actions taken. With Steve Rotherham Mayor of Liverpool, Andy Burnham has published a book that calls for action to equalize living standards all over England.

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These 2 steel plants date back to Scunthorpe 1861, and Port Talbot 1905, when they were first built, when Britain led the world's industrial revolution. The two plants were modernized in the 1950's. British Steel and Tata Steel Port Talbot only two remaining steel plants in UK- retaking the UK steel supply chain move taken Labour in July 2026 as Andy Burnham takes the premiership. British Steel was privatized in 1988. In Asia British Steel and US Steel were revered during the colonial period to the 1950's and 1960's. In the US and UK strangely economic theories took hold that did not see the importance of steel and other basic industries in the life of a nation and its people. About 40 years later the lessons of outsourcing your main supply chains has been learned at great cost to the US and the UK. Note that in today's WSJ an Exclusive report shows the success US steel has become with government help and American tariff protection agiainst dumped steel from China and India. US Steel has grown till it is now the third largest steelmaker in the world. The UK government is nationalizing Scunthorpe plant now given name British Steel under the Steel Industry Nationalization Act. UK has set aside 2.5 million pounds for subsidies to the Scunthorpe and Port Talbot plants for modernization of old pre-1960's plants. This is the right move, if US Steel is a success story with DJT tariffs and government support, British Steel will be a success story with the same kind of support. And contrary to bad economic theory purveyed by some economists the US and UK can now have their own modern steel industries and supply chains at home. ...

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50 Economists are surveyed by WSJ from banks and universities to small consulting firms. The consensus is that unemployment will remain the same and inflation a bit higher (2.9% instead of 2.6%) if the war is temporary. At what price point and for how long does it cause problems of a recession? The price point is in the region of $138 and in the region of 14 weeks. Inflation predicted at 2.6% is now estimated to increase to 2.9% in this survey March 16-March 18. The attack on gas and oil fields in Qatar, UAE, Saudi and Iran may pose a different kind of problem making it harder to repair than the Straits of Hormuz closure which could be opened at any time and allow tanker traffic to resume supplies.

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Adriana Kugler a Labor economist at Georgetown is president Biden's nominee for the Federal Reserve Board. In 2021 she was nominated as Executive Director at the World Bank. Her work is on how labor and social policies can improve the lives of working people, help create jobs, and help the less well off get education and training. Asked about Biden nominating labor economists to top jobs she says-"This is the key issue of our time. This is what we need to fix." As the first Latina in this position at the World Bank, Kugler who is a Colombian-American says, "they view me differently," and have a sense of being heard by someone who understands what it is like ot grow up in a developing country.

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"The economy is performing well, and the near term prospects are good" says Mark Zandi of Moody's, in his speech on the US economic outlook at an event of the National Economists Club. He is optimistic about the economy and sees moderating inflation and higher consumer confidence. Investments in the CHIPS act and the Inflation Reduction Act in science, in chip manufacturing, in renewable energy manufacturing, other investments in infrastructure, he sees as building a stronger economy with job creation and improved potential for growth. Oil prices could pose a risk. Increased supplies of US oil, and stable production by the Saudis are needed for stable oil prices after recent turmoil in the Middle East.

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Out of 50 economists in a WSJ Survey on inflation in the US, 28 economists say inflation will be higher under a president Trump. Only 8 economists say inflation will be higher under a president Biden. Trump's plan to crackdown on illegal immigration and to raise tariffs will put an upward pressure on prices say the economists in the WSJ Survey. This weeks inflation figure came out at 3%. Under president Biden inflation which reached 9% has come down to 3%, a remarkable achievement that the president alluded to in his press conference yesterday. This is a result of president Biden's cost of living actions on several fronts including housing, energy, retail prices, banking, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, childcare. Biden has made it his top priority. By raising tariffs across the board on imports Trump's actions would lead to higher prices.

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Jennifer Szalai of NYT writes about books on inequlity and how it is pervading the public consciousness. She writes about the work of English economist Angus Deaton who settled in the US and could not understand how bad inequality has become in the US.

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In depth interview with Kyohei Morita, chief economist of Barclays Capital, Finance Asia explores different aspects of the Japanese economy and developments after 1987 and under Koizumi, the role of exports and how ordinary households are affected. He points out a few important things about the Japanese economy that are not generally recognized. One is that Japanese banks are vulnerable in the way the subprime crisis has exposed banks in the USA. Their vulnerability comes from owning 15% of the shares on the stock market which came down from a higher number after years of reducing stock holdings. When the Nikkei drops below 9000 this reduces the bank's capital and leads to credit tightening. Morita points out the risk of turning a moderate slowdown from lower exports into a severe slowdown if banks are reluctant to lend. The other point he makes is that small nonmanufacturing companies in Japan have to thrive for Japan to thrive, but he is bearish about private consumption. In a revealing statement he says that in his research he has found that the path connecting corporate profitability to households is seriously eroding. This is due to globalization as Japanese companies are offshoring aggressively, and 30% of the Japanese market capitalization in held by foreigners. His point is that Japanese managers now tend to see wages as costs just like American managers do and not the way they did in the past, so salary costs are suppressed in favor of shareholder dividends which flow out of Japan. Finance Asia referred to an OECD study that shows Japan's ranking in terms of per capita income fell from fifth highest in the OECD in 1992 to 19th in 2002, a fact that Morita recognizes as strange as western economies have tended to follow relatively stable long term income growth, and which he attributes to Japan's terrible demographics with population shrinking since 2006 and more elderly and retired supported by a smaller percentage of working age people. In an exceptionally revealing statement Morita points out that Japan has globalized from the outside but not from the inside. Japan he says needs more foreign direct investment and ideas, and more immigrants, fresh labour and fresh taxpayers. Which is remarkably true as Japan tends to be rather insular as a country and tends to keep out immigrants. The influx of Polish and Eastern European immigrants to the UK under the Blair-Brown Labor government years would be unimaginable in Japan. In the meantime Japan's estimated $15.7 trillion in financial assets held by households or three time national GDP is something that makes it possible for now for Japan to sustain the upward trend in the debt to GDP ratio....

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Greg Ip, chief economic commentator of the WSJ says economists like Summers with his theory of secular stagnation, and Kenneth Rogoff with his theory of the debt hangover from the 2009 financial crisis, have missed the true story of the last ten years with consistent growth, low inflation and lower unemployment than thought possible. Unemployment at 3.5% shows that the natural rate of unemployment is much lower that the 5% thought by economists and economic theory, and unused capacity in the economy that is being tapped for growth.

It also shows the limitations of economics and economic theory. The need always for fresh thinking and a bolder idea of what is possible. The potential for economic growth by unleashing each country's best human and technological potential in the face of obstacles. 

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Ma Jun, economist who worked for the IMF, World Bank, and Deutsche Bank is the Chief Economist of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in April 2014.

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One big concern says Nancy Keates of the WSJ about the National Association of Realtors, is that the organization collects and puts out objective data about home sales, and at the same time provides a commentary on the statistics. It also has a mission to advance the interests of its members. There are 2.6 million licensed real estate agents, and NAR represents about 1.3 million of these real estate agents. Would the real estate agents and the NAR tolerate an economist who raised concerns about the boom in lending? David Lereah, is former chief economist for the NAR ,and worked there from 2000 to April 2007. He remained upbeat throughout these years, even when the market was headed downwards. And the way he sees it he was doing for 7 years everything the NAR wanted him to do, and he was pressured to issue these upbeat reports. Critics called him "Baghdad Dave", after a Iraqi information minister for his false upbeat reports even when the war on the Iraqi side was lost. And a Credit Suisse analyst called him Liar-eah for some of these upbeat assesments, when things were clearly going wrong. The way Nancy Keates sees it this economist was eager to profit himself in the boom years. He was an economics Professor at Rutgers, at the University of Virginia, and later an economist and regulator at the Federal Deposit and Insurance Corporation. He himself bought condos 2 in Washington in 2003 and 2004, and one each in Tampa, Richmond, Va. and Alexandria, Va. and Naples, Florida. Owning by 2006 six condos worth between $150,000 and $400,000 a condo. He had an expensive lifestyle says his wife, with a big house worth $780,000, a country club, sports fishing boat. So in some ways suggests this reporter, he was caught up in the boom himself with his investments and the demands of a expensive lifestyle, with little room left for independent opinion and analysis. This is a striking example of things gone wrong, with all the meticulousness and comprehensiveness with which data is collected having its value destroyed by the lack of strict objectivity in the analysis. And the intrusion of strong personal interest bias in one direction making the destruction of objectivity complete. Looking at the economists at companies and associations, there is a subtle bias in operation that needs to be discounted by CEO's and association heads, a bias for giving the CEO's better and optimistic assessments on a consistent basis. An example is the way a large number of economists see the recovery taking place in 2009. Another related example is the sales forecasts for the Detroit auto companies that continued to assume sales in the 16-17 million a year rate into the latter half of 2008, even after the Bear Stearns collapse in March and the increasing foreclosures suggested something was amiss. All with horrendous consequences for the companies or industries involved, and the US and global economies....

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A survey of 414 National Association of Business Economics (NABE) economists shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson with 15%, overtaking Trump at 14% on who would best manage the economy. On protectionist views only 9% support this. 15% said they have no opinion and 55% said Hillary Clinton would do the best job of managing the economy. About 62% say the election uncertainty is holding back growth. Some aspects of Hillary Clinton's economic plan are the $275 billion infrastructure investment over 10 years, taking action against companies that ship jobs overseas, a capital gains tax paln that encourages long term investments, supporting $15 minimum wage, making upward mobility a top priority, providing government financed access to public colleges for working class and lower income groups. Donald Trump's plan has suffered form lack of specifics, shifting comments, lack of careful study, and excessive use of slogans. Both candidates oppose trade agreements that shift jobs overseas. Trump's plan also suffers from lack of credibility overseas as this is important in a global business structure, with fears of protectionism increasing. and reminding people of the protectionism under Smoot-Hawley that increased the damage from the depression of the thirties. ...

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The UK based magazine The Economist will maintain its independence after a sale of 50% shares is completed to Exor or some other company. This is because the shares sold are "B" shares. "A" shares and trustee shares will be retained so that the independence of the magazine is not affected. The Economist has increased its circulation to 1.6 million in 2015 from about 1 million in 2006. It reaches a highly educated and upper class audience. The magazine has a unique culture in which journalists debate editorial direction and writers also do editing, with no writer's names mentioned for its short Time magazine type coverage of international topics. It also has a Intelligence and Statistical unit to provide more advanced coverage on some topics such as finance and policy.

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Economists point to a limited impact of Fed chairman Bernanke's $600 billion quantitative easing program. Interest rates decreased but only for companies with top credit ratings. Northwestern University Professors Krishnamurthy and Jorgensen, say rates for households and many corporations- mortgage rates and rates on lower grade corporate bonds- have for a large part not been affected by the Fed's second round of quantitative easing. Another economist Mickey Levy, of Bank of America, says the move has boosted the stock market, eased credit conditions, and suppressed the dollar, but no one really believes the Fed buying Treasuries and bulking up its balance sheet can create permanent jobs.

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The graph of forecasts as they proceed into the recession of economists in the WSJ survey. With each month into the downturn the further into it one goes the more the forecasts get gloomier.

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Shiller, Kashyap, Mishkin, Slaughter, Stein, Stulz, Rajan and others are part of a 15 academic economists group called the Squam Lake Group. They first met at a conference in November 2008 at Squam Lake in New Hampshire. The group has come up with a report that they hope gets the prominence of the 9/11 report. It is called the Squam Lake Report. The book will be introduced in a conference at Columbia University by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. Some of the economists have little faith in regulators and a new Financial Stability oversight Council led by Treasury Secretary Geithner. (Stulz, Kashyap). The group sees need for better disclosure of risks of financial products, especially retirement savings products.The editor Seth Itchik sees the book as today's version of the 1938 book by Harvard and Tufts economists called "An Economic Program for American Democracy." The motivation for this effort in a field where economists have different opinions, is to build a consensus for decisive action by Congress and the government of the U.S. Two new suggestions that are not in the Congressional bills for financial reform. One is issuance of contingent convertible bonds or CoCo bonds. Banks would be encouraged or required to issue such debt which would convert into equity in a crisis. These funds would help recapitalize a bank in a crisis with no taxpayer liability. Another new proposal is to have a fraction of each year's bonus pool for banking executives to be held separately- if the bank ran into trouble, that portion of pay would be withheld from senior managers. And the group sees political aspects and lobbying making sound plans less implementable in Congress. Congress lets regulators curb pay practices and coordinate other actions which has not worked in the past and during the crisis. Congress has even in its best effort acted on only some of the things needed in its bills- this includes higher capital requirements, and compulsory "living wills" for the largest financial institutions, and the Volcker Rule. The rules for derivatives are still being negotiated by Blance Lincoln who introduced this provision, with the result being more transparency. If it is watered down it would not ensure the strict separation of derivatives trading on the capital accounts of banks that Blanche Lincoln envisaged. ...

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Prices in Britain are expected to go up with Brexit. New figures show prices up 1.2% in the year to November 2016, up from 0.9% in the year to October, according to the Office of National Statistics. Economists expect this to go up rapidly to 2% by the end of March 2017, to reflect higher prices for oil following the sharp drop in the value of the pound. A big increase in clothing imported from overseas, as well as other consumer prices are also pushing up inflation.

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Kyle Wingfield meets up with Robert Mundell, Nobel winner in 1999. What does he have to say now? He thinks the oil prices are on track and would reach $130 by 2020 with 3.5% inflation, starting with $34 a barrel in 1980 doubling to $68 in 2000 and doubling again to $136 in 2020. Today its already at $136 but he thinks it will settle down lower to about $100, so hethinks were not so far off track. On inflation he looks at the price of gold at$850 an ounce , and now its still about the same, with high inflation gold should be at $1500, so he does not see the public thinking high inflation is coming. He was in favor of the Reagan tax cuts and set the groundwork for this and aslo supported the euro. He believes the Bush tax cuts should be kept as it would be disastrous for the world economy. Mundell has always believed that there is a link between economic growth and lower tax rates. He advocates corporate tax rates of 25%. Tax rates went down to 28% under Reagan back up to 40% under Clinton and down to 35% under Bush. Hewould like to see a ceiling on marginal rates of 30%. He would like to see a fixed exchange rate so that there are not these large currency rate swings, the euro should be valued somehwehere between 90 cents to the euro to $1.30. The US has a growing population and better adoption of innovation with a younger population than Europe so he sees the USA as a leader in innovation and growth and the dollar or some new global currency should be formed for a global economy. Just as he supported the euro he supports a currency for Asia. He does not see overvaluing the Chinese currency as doing much good as he sees the Japanese economy hurt by the overvaluing of its currency after a period of Japoan bashing. He is an advisor to China on currency issues....

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A letter from 600 American economists to the Speaker of the House and party leaders in Congress outlines the case for increasing the U.S.minimum wage in 3 steps till 2016, with 95 cent increases each year taking it to $10.10 an hour and indexing it to inflation. This would help take the wages for the full year of 17 million Americans- most disproportionately women struggling to make ends meet, working age of about 35 years and older, and parents of small children- from $15,000 to $21,000 a year. Another 11 million who are just above the new minimum wage would benefit as companies adjust their internal wage ladder. The letter points out that negative effects on employment are little or none even at a time of weakness in the labor market. It says that instead there would be "a small stimulative effect on the economy as low wage workers spend their additional earnings, raising demand and job growth, and providing some help on the jobs front."

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Peter Praet, former IMF economist and former executive director of the National Bank of Belgium, takes over the position of head of the Economics department of the European Central Bank. He succeeds Jurgen Stark of Germany who resigned over policy differences on the purchase of sovereign government bonds by the ECB.

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A study by Blanchard and Bernanke shows energy prices and supply chain constraints were key factors in creating the surge in inflation that happened in 2022. The Ukraine war played apart in raising energy prices . How much effect did president Biden's $1.6 trillion American Rescue Plan have on inflation? Bernanke and Blanchard say not what critics had suggested. Once energy prices were brought under control through the president's policies to $75 energy prices played less of a role in inflation. Supply chain effects also eased throughout 2022. The persistent effect remained the mismatch between supply and demand that is called The Great Resignation that came as a response from teachers, nurses, hospitality sector workers with low minimum wage on which it was hard to make a living. President Biden's payments to these workers gave them enough room to make a definite choice that they would not take the risks during the pandemic and the stress and opted for shifting to other jobs. Employers struggled to fill vacancies and raised wages in response. To reduce inflation the Fed opted to raise rates to slow the demand for goods and services in the economy which has led to a moderating of inflation from the high of 7% in 2022 to falling below 5% by April 2023. Fed chairman Powell's aggressive attitude to inflation was based on not letting an inflationary psychology set in, that could damage the interests of workers and families who had already suffered from the pandemic's effects. This is where we are today as the economy adjusts to the fight against climate change, investments in renewable energy and infrastructure, and efforts to reduce the deficit by president Biden in a way that reduces the widening gaps and social divisions in society.   ...

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Economists score Geithner's performance an average of 51 out of 100, Obama's an average of 59, and Bernanke's 71. 42% of respondents scored Obama below 60.

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The efforts of president Biden with trillions of dollars of investment and the Fed's supporting measured fight against inflation, mean that the US economy is likely poised for growth in the year ahead.