LyrArc Article Gist
It would take 60 days for Iran to generate $10 billion in revenues. It seeks to charge tolls for the Hormuz channel to generate $40 billon a year. The US strategy- now that US knows there is a power struggle between the- elected president Pezeshkian and the militay IRGC- is to restrict Iran from gaining the funds to fund a nuclear weapons program. The most likely and low cost option is to reinstate the naval blockade. The next action is to work with China, Japan, India and the European Union to find other sources of oil to replace the 20 million barrels lost from Homruz- by using the unused capacity of 5 million barrels a day in UAE, Saudi pipelines. China learning to do without the 4 million barrels a day it got through Hormuz, supplying India through added oil supplies from Venezuela and the US, accelerating renewable energy and EV's hybrids could generate about a third of the 20 billion barrels lost from Hormuz or 6 million barrels a day. The better management of supplies in inventories could generate the additional energy to replace 4 million barrels a day. The result would be to reduce or eliminate the need for Hormuz and reduce its impact on the world's need for oil and energy use. ...

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China's export dependent economy with 4% decline in fixed investment Jan-May 2026 and 27% jump in exports.1 million car exports per month in June. Exports make up 20% of China's GDP. China is challenging German companies in their home markets in Europe. Domestic sales of cars are down 16% in June. What this means is that China's growth now depends on exports alone, with construction slowdown, and weak consumer spending. How does this tie into China's posture in trade with the US? It negotiated from a position of strength on rare earths not to give in to DJT tariffs yet knows the importance of trade for the Chinese economic model, importance of US and EU markets, markets worldwide. China's strategy is to shift some of the lost US sales due to tariffs to other countries in Latin America and Asia. A top priority is to keep trade with the US and European Union on a good footing, so that its exports can be absorbed. How does it affect Hormuz? For China Hormuz as an oil source is much lower in importance and China can do without Iran, it absolutely cannot do without the US and European Union to take a big part of its exports. It also does not openly say this but it also shares concerns similar to the US, on nuclear weapons in Iran. India, Japan and the EU have similar concerns. As shown in the articles on this page China has large unused oil in reserves and coal supplies, has lower oil demand at 4% growth, and is accelerating renewable energy, so that it is now importing 8.5 million barrels a day down from 12.5 million barrels a day. By doing this China puts this oil back into the world supply leading to lower oil prices. This means the world can do without the supplies from Hormuz, keep lower oil prices, and go on as before if Hormuz remains closed. The US can focus on domestic issues and its involvement in the Middle East can be limited to naval blockade which the US Navy is capable of doing. This is good for China, good for the US, and good for the World. Local governments in China, provincial authorites, pushed growth in building road, bridges, factories during the 30 year growth phase 1990-2020. In 2026 local governments with debt loads and lack of good projects for investment are a bottleneck to growth. This is the first time fixed investment is in decline, except for the years in 1961 and in 1967. The year 1961 is a result of many mistakes made by chairman of CCP, Mao, by shifting 2 million in farm labour to work in iron foundries, and the shift from private farm plots to soviet style commune farms, coupled with floods leading to 43-46 million famine deaths (1994, Chen Yizi, top advisor to CCP General Secretary Zhao Zhiyang). 1967 is the chaotic situation of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution launched by Mao. What it shows is that the China Miracle like the Japan Miracle and the German Miracle of recovery after World War II, is based on certain conditions and will enter a phase of lower growth closer to 3% like other industrialized nations over time. India and Indonesia are larger than China and will be the next growth story, which is also shown on these pages this week, with the address to the Indonesian parliament by Modi, and Indonesian president Prabovo's saying that he has studied Modi's economic changes and is copying them as there is no copyright. ...

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Clause 5 paragraph of the US Iran Memorandum clearly says international laws of freedom of navigation shall be respected by all parties, and the Hormuz demined opened for traffic by Iran. IRGC would not come to the agreement without its inserting that it would work with Omani authorites  to open the Hormuz straits shipping. The WSJ sees the additions made by IRGC in the Memorandum to show the interpretation by Iran IRGC, yet freedom of navigation under international law is unequivocal and clear that no country can block a shipping channel. The US knowing that possibility existed Iran would not be opening the channel, or would disrupt the Omani route, has plan to make Hormuz not a factor in oil prices by using alternative supplies as its backup plan in coordination with China, India, Japan and other coutnries. Here is paragraph 5 of the Memorandum with Iran- "The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days." "The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf Littoral States, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz." This is not a careless error or overlooked by the US, it clearly states "international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states." Hormuz is significant only in the way oil supplies through the channel are supplied to China, India, Japan, and other countries, and in the way it sets oil prices based on supply and demand. The US goal is to create enough alternative supplies for India and Japan, and China for its part in cooperation with the US agreeing to do without the 4 million barrels a day it got through Hormuz. UAE has not used about .7 mbd and Saudis not used about 5 mbd in the past of their pipelines that are outside of Hormuz. This gives a total of of China's 4 mbd and on the demand side Saudi UAE combined 5.7 mbd for a total of 9 million mbd or 9 million barrels a day that reduces dependence on Hormuz. Even if 80% of Hormuz oil of 20 mbd is blocked again, this will mean the offset from China doing without Hormuz and the pipelines providing about half of the Hormuz supplies. Of the remaining 6 million barrels a day needed half could come from increased drilling for oil production (in Venezuela and other places) and half from conservation in the world outside of China- the US, EU, India, Africa, Latin America. With this covering 16 million barrels a day the world could still cope without 80% or most of the Hormuz supplies in the event Iran threatens to shut off Hormuz again. Even the trickle coming out of Hormuz of 4  mbd could be replaced from the petroleum reserves of the US, EU, Japan, India and other countries. In this way the US policy is to bypass Hormuz completely and use the period of the ceasefire to plan accordingly, knowing the IRGC never wanted to honor the Memorandum for opening Hormuz, it was only pressured to do so and would go back to its original intent. UAE plans new pipelines and overland routes. It would also bring down oil prices after a small surge from $70 a barrel to $80- $85 a barrel, before coming down again as additional supplies are created and demand side addressed through renewable energy and EV's. ...

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Oil prices expected to drop from $70 per barrel to $60 per barrel in July 2026 easing oil crisis in advanced and developing nations. A drawdown of inventories by 163 million barrels happened to OECD countries in the 4 months of the Hormuz crisis. Advanced European nations will replenish their inventories starting in the 4th quarter, the US next year in 2027, China with a billion barrels in inventory is not in a hurry to replenish at this time. Factors improving the situation are that the UAE has increased production and sends it though Fujairah that is separate from Hormuz after it left the OPEC oil organization (which sets production quotas for members to control prices). Kuwait is doing the same. Saudis have also increased production routing it away from Hormuz. The advanced countries have learned from the Hormuz crisis. China has changed its oil consumption policy to use it more efficiently one of the big changes from the Hormuz crisis. Instead of importing 10 million barrels a day oil China now imports 6 million barrels a day. China was always a prolific user of oil and as long as oil was plentiful China did not pay enough attention on how to use oil as efficiently as some European nations and Japan are doing. During the crisis the rest of the world including India had time to figure out ways of running their economies using less oil and will continue to do so knowing that Hormuz had allowed one country (Iran) to put the whole family of developing nations in Africa and Asia, Latin America at risk. Hormuz channel itself has opened and about 40-60 ships are making their way through each day. There are risks that Iran will try to close Hormuz again or that the war will restart and this means all nations advanced and developing nations are finding and securing alternative oil supplies. US is also increasing production through its oil base and oil base of its allies, and American plus European oil companies will act to increase supplies and new sources of oil to prevent the world being threatened again in the way it was at Hormuz in 2026. ...

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What impresses most about Tuchel is his calmness and reassuring his players, taking the pressure off them so they can concentrate on the game on their skills and do better. In the half time talk for the game against Croatia he tells his players - “Even if we lost, it will not change my perception of you from the last 17 days, but let’s do it our way.” Players did not have to think of their self-worth, a load was taken off their backs, so they could concentrate on the task itself and use their skills effectively, says Cath Bishop in The Guardian. There are 10 articles on this German coach Tuchel one each for how he managed each game, with DRC, Croatia, Panama, and with Mexico, in The Guardian, and others on his approach, rare to find so many concentrating on the coach for England. Showing Tuchel has something of a rare quality- calmness plus confidence, and connection with his players.

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Reeves and Lammy depart as Burnham chooses new cabinet Healey is new chancellor and Shabana continues as Home Secretary. Healey was Defense secretary under Starmer. It is important that he was in 1999 Parliamentary Private Secretary to Gordon Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer. In 2002 he was appointed Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and in 2005 Financial Secretary to the Treasury. In 2009 he was Minister of State for Housing and Planning. Shadow Secretary of Health in 2010 and 2016, Shadow Secretary for Defense under Starmer after supporting Starmer for leadership of the Labour Party. He was first elected to parliament in 1997 and had majorities of 50-70% in elections serving for 29 years in parliament. He is the right choice for Chancellor, or Finance Minister of the UK to work with Burnham on Labour's goals. Reeves was problematic from the beginning because she stuck to what people said could or could not be done, not able to think outside the box to get Labour to be itself and do what people wanted from Labour. In this way she set herself and the Labour party for failure by losing the very public that Labour had promised to help, with this public becoming indifferent to Labour, because in many ways it was Reeves's Labour not Starmer's. As Starmer, not much of an original thinker and little experience outside of law, followed Reeves economic theories borrowed from The City, Britain's version of Wall Street. Andy Burnham is right to choose someone who can think on his feet, no knowledge of economic theory required because orthodox economic theory has failed America, failed Britain, and created the mess of single supply chain concentrated in China in the first place with its theories of comparitive advantage. What is needed is someone who grasps and hold near his heart the aspirations of the British people, and hears their concerns everyday, not think tanks telling one what to do, and acting on these concerns in creative ways, thinking and improvising solutions along the way, not afraid to experiment. This is how FDR handled the economic difficulties of the 1930's, another period like today's when Wall Street theories had failed badly. This is also how China handled the economic collapse after Mao's death following the Cultural Revolution in 1984-1997. This is how Modi handled the economic difficulties in building a modern nation by experimentation in the western state of Gujarat in 2001-2014 without preconceived ideas and theories, keeping what worked and expanding on it.  Lammy was not the right choice for Deputy Prime Minister, and failed to provide leadership and focus the country's attention on the issues of migrants, asylum hotels, housing, rebuilding relations with the European Union, economic growth, neglect of the north of England and other deprived regions. No such position of Deputy prime minister can be filled in many situations. As Foreign Secretary there needed to be some one who could speak with a stronger voice for Britain with the European Union, the US, China, India, and be seen across the spectrum of views in Britain as an effective voice. ...

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After UAE leaves OPEC and US increases oil production (Venezuela+), China reducing imports keeps oil prices low and keeps Hormuz closure from affecting oil prices. This has major impact on all countries that are affected by the shortage of oil as this puts more oil into the market (about 4 million barrels a day that China imported through Hormuz), and by lowering oil prices helps China as it pays less for oil it imports from other sources outside Hormuz. It also helps poor countries such as India and China, Pakistan, Philippines, Indonesia, rest of Asia, Africa and Latin America. By keeping oil prices low China also help climate change action by accelerating its renewable energy production. India and EU, US, also increase renewable energy production as a consequence of Hormuz, leading to strong climate change action. These are some of the positive side of Hormuz as the world with China leading the way learns that it is best to do without Hormuz. Though China does not say this publicly China does not want to see more nuclear weapons capable countries in volatile regions. This is true also of India, Indonesia, and EU. China  (And India) also consider it a high priority for its economy to maintain trade relations with the US. This is rarely stated in the Media today. What this means is that oil prices can be kept low as the largest nations together EU, US, China, India, Japan join together to keep oil prices low not repeating the situation during an earlier naval blockade April 13 to June 18 2026 of prices going to $125 a barrel. China has some of the largest coal reserves and oil strategic reserves in the world which make it possible for China to do this. ...

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Satya Nadella - "we have to get society's permission" for what is done with AI. Nadella has an approach to AI to keep each company's human knowledge capital separate from AI, as its most valuable component of its operations. In the world he visualizes AI frontier models OpenAI, Gemini(Google) and Anthropic's Claude won't just keep saying they will use up all the resources they can use leaving little for education, healthcare and public services or infrastructure, and keep saying it will destroy all entry level and other white collar jobs, and the world will put up with that. His approach is to bring AI at a cost level that is much lower,including incorporating Chinese models for cost effectiveness. And at the same time making AI supplement each company's human capital working side by side so that jobs can be enhanced not destroyed willy nilly, in a careless random, disorganized way whether people like it or not because a few frontier AI models and their companies (Google, Anthropic and Open AI) have decided to do that. Nadella's thinking is worth listening to and reading about as it offers the first intelligent approach to making AI do what we want it to do for healthy societies. After all the destruction in world trade by shipping out supply chains by the US and Europe, after uncontrolled migration, after the loss of manufacturing and the good jobs that went with it, and the decision to reverse this and regain manufacturing and supply chains under both US presidents Biden and DJT, Nadella is right to conclude that society will not tolerate any more losses, and society is determined to retrieve losses from past mistakes. By preserving each company's human capital independent of AI Nadella is calling on individual leaders at all startup, midisized and large companies to have a clear idea of their precious human capital and set up AI independent of it at the company level to work alongside human capital. We at Lyrarc think this will give better results than no conscious approach that allows willy nilly the AI frontier models to shrivel the company's human capital and do what they are clearly incapable of doing in our view, which is to run companies or the principal functional areas of societies such as healthcare, transportation and public services. That even though Nadella does not say this is going to look good at first, then lead the company to catastrophic consequences of losing control of its own individual company's future and lead it to make huge mistakes that will be costly to correct and cause much damage to the Nation and its people. This is anew proposition that Nadella makes and should be grasped for a new approach, and constructive confrontations on this issue of how to incorporate AI at each company's level for hundreds of thousands of companies, alongside separate and supplementing the core strength of human capital, not displacing it to cause huge problems in future years. A company bereft of its human capital is a company bereft of what gives it life and vitality. ...

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VW plans to do 50,000 job cuts in 20206-2027 with oversupply of cars in the European market including Chinese cars.

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US can working with all countries find replacement for Hormuz supplies. The meetings with Iraqi prime minister Zaidi at the White House are one part of an extended effort that includes China, India, UAE, EU, Venezuela, other oil producers and oil consuming countries and regions with expanding shift to renewable energy (India, China, EU). Chevron and other companies plan to invest $60 billion in oil projects in Iraq including Kirkuk to Baniyas pipeline. The plan is to ramp up Iraqi oil production to the 4.5 million barrels a day Iraqi production by rebuilding or putting  new pipeline from Iraq to the Syrian coast on the Mediterranean. This is activity from the White House to replace Hormuz as this will keep the US out of a prolonged conflict. The media has not covered the replacement of Hormuz as a viable option to bypass the conflict, leaving a naval blockade in place, and continuing focus on domestic priorities with China, India, EU and other major nations all working together in this direction. China's economy is weak, India's needs trade and technology infusion, EU needs US cooperation and trade, all 3 powers keenly interested in a different path than one put forward by Iran of prolonged and unneeded conflicts for 4 billion people in these largest economies and the 4 billion people in Africa other Asia, and Latin America. That is 8 billion people's interests vs 45 million in Iran (if IRGC has only half the population's support in rural Iran, small towns). Can 5% of the world's population determine the direction of the 95%? Can culture wars in the US which heavily determine the distortions appearing in the NYT,  and the ideological wars on capitalism vs socialism in the WSJ, Republican vs Democrats midterms and other election politics distorted presentation, be allowed to obscure this fact that 95% of the world's people including Americans are interested in fixing drug cartels and fentanyl, fixing dilapidated infrastructure, in building new housing, in tackling oil prices, not the bombing of targets in the Middle East (limiting such action to nuclear weapons facilities not using force in Hormuz). China adds 4 million barrels a day by finding alternatives sources. UAE and Saudis are increasing production outside Hormuz, UAE outside of OPEC. Iraq can add 3 million barrels a day from 1.5 million barrels a day in June 2026 to 4.5 million barrels a day. Because Venezuela's current production is about 1 million barrels a day it can ramp this up to 3.5 adding 2.5 million barrels a day. The chart below shows how Hormuz can be replaced and the task ahead for nations and regions representing 8 billion people in the world. UAE 2 million barrels a day via pipelines, Saudi add 2 million barrels a day via pipelines, Iraq 3 million barrels a day via pipelines, China 4 million barrels a day by alternative sources, India 2 million barrels a day from alternative sources and renewable energy target upgrade, Venezuela 2.5 million barrels a day,  US  1 million barrels a day, Other - Guyana, Canada, Brazil. Shown alongside is a report from Goldman Sachs analysis which come to a similar conclusion and with facts on each specific region's ramp up of oil supplies to replace Hormuz in a race against time.So that Hormuz will be left behind, so that the world and the US of 8 billion people can pursue other priorities of peaceful cooperation, to achieve "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" as the Founders aspirations and the world's aspirations.     ...

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Relationships after retirement can take unconventional paths- in many situations time spent doing what makes one feel fulfilled can mean doing things separately and still having time to do things together, spend time together in other ways and places.

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WSJ Editorial Board on the closure of Hormuz and US efforts to strike Iranian coastal missile sites to open it after Iran's IRGC rejected the terms of the Memorandum to open Hormuz. What purpose did the Memorandum serve? DJT let JD Vance come up with a negotiated settlement -accepting efforts of Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar  to mediate a way out to open Hormuz- to make some concessions such as ending Iran sanctions, and opening oil markets to Iranian oil exports, ending the naval blockade, putting nuclear weapons development for negotiations during the 90 day period after the ceasefire.  The IRGC military inside Iran accepted it under pressure from the elected president Pezeshkian and Turkey, Pakistan. Yet its approach has been to accept one day and the following day issue statements contradicting this the next day. Some of the clauses were kept deliberately vague on the insistence of IRGC or worded in a way that IRGC could point to their interpretation and reject efforts for a ceasefire  and opening Hormuz. In the light of this experience 2 conclusions were reached by the US- the IRGC makes decisions for Iran not the elected president Pezeshkian and IRGC does not want to open Hormuz except by charging tolls as away to finance its missile operations. In this kind of a situation how does the US respond effectively without getting into a land conflict that distracts US from its domestic goals of building a strong economy, cost of living action, and rebuilding US infrastructure? This Editorial says Schumer's effort to block defense bills does not serve the national interest. Schumer's point to exercise caution to focus on domestic goals of rebuilding the US economy serves the Nation well, yet continuously blocking the president to gain in the midterms is not a good strategy. Lyrarc points out that the best way is for the US to continue the naval blockade if Iran won't allow Hormuz to be opened to all ships without tolls. And step two would be to find enough alternative sources of oil to make up for the 20 million barrels from Hormuz. Some of this could come from reducing use of oil and gas which China has done by importing less oil from 12.5 million barrels a day to 8.5 million barrels a day, effectively doing without the 4 million barrels a day it got from Hormuz. By doing this the US can avoid the effort to open Hormuz through alternative sources of oil supplies,  avoid being drawn into a prolonged conflict it does not need. Achieving its objectives on nuclear and Hormuz in a different way exercizing patience and using wisdom alongside strength. That course means the US would work with the European Union, UK, China, India, oil companies and other oil producing regions to forgo Hormuz oil as Lyrarc has proposed as the most effective answer to threats about Hormuz, and continuing the naval blockade.  ...

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US collapsed against Belgium. Brazil lost to Paraguay. Argentina trailed Egypt for most of the 90 minutes only to recover with 3 goals in the last 20 minutes and the winning goal in overtime. Messi almost in tears, moved by the near failure of Argentina till the last minutes of the game gave a miraculous reprieve. One by one the highly advertised on television in the US teams and stars, from US's Pulisic, Mexican soccer players, Messi, Brazil's Neymar and Vinicius Jr, are all in shock. Less advertised, less well known players are making their way, and this may be a good thing as the advertising has gone overboard. Companies were pouring money into these ads turning the  players into constant presence in ads and creating an atmosphere that is not healthy for soccer as a sport. One just hopes France's Mbappe with his humility and quiet demeanor doesn't get into one more noisy ad on television like the others. Is Christiano Ronaldo, the little kid from Madeira, Portugal, coming out of nowhere at that time, a billionaire? Is Messi also from remote town of Rosario, Santa Fe province, Argentina, a billionaire? This doesn't do much for the sport. Germany's best goal scorer in this World Cup only dreamed of not having to do two jobs, and having a steady career, after struggling for a long period. There is something in this World Cup that has brought previously unknown players from unknown places like Cabo Verde to the forefront on world television, including the Egyptian and Moroccan players, the players from other smaller countries. Even the English players in the Premier League playing for England look good by comparison. ...

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US naval base at Bahrain and the damage from missiles in the war  June 2026 as shown by the WSJ. Bahrain is located only 150 miles from the Iranian coastline and was targeted along with other sites including Kuwait and UAE. A new route along the Omani coastline protected by US naval power in the region that then goes along the UAE coastline is now the route opened up by the US for shipping oil through Hormuz. This route is key to reducing oil prices and the recent visit by Marco Rubio of the US to the Gulf Cooperation Council being held in Bahrain June 25,  and the meetings held there, affirmed the open navigation of the seas on international waterways as being under international law. This has led to the fall of oil prices to prewar levels of around $70 per barrel. The US will redo the naval forces and bases in the region with less in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, smaller footprint in Bahrain, and move some naval forces to the west closer to or inside Israel. The administration has asked Congress for $40 billion for the naval and military effort to restore open navigation of the seas for the world's energy of which $5 billion will go to repair of damaged naval facilities. One of the effects of the war that is constructive is ther is now an awareness to manage oil consumption in India, China and Japan major users of oil coming through Hormuz. China has figured out ways to do without the 3 million barrels a day from Hormuz, India has setup alternative oil supplies from Venezuela, and Japan is both cutting oil use and looking at alternative sources. Oil companies are also working on alternative supplies in other regions of the world. Both China, India, and European Union are accelerating their renewable energy sources to meet energy requirements. This means after 2026 the world may not be dependent on Hormuz for energy supplies, Hormuz becoming one of multiple sources and alternative supplies than in the past. This will also keep oil prices in the $50-$70 range that is consistent with cost of living and economic growth. ...

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Andy Burnham tells the Times of London in an Interview-

“It’s where I’ve gone wrong, sometimes in my political career. It’s when I’ve not been true to my instincts. I hate saying it like this, but my instincts are pretty good. And I said it on Friday: I do listen to people. That’s where I’ve always picked up my straws in the wind. And that’s my style. I’ve got to find a way of keeping that: sitting in my own seat. It’s actually the best thing I could do. Every game there would be a mega focus group on me.”

"I’m going to really try to keep that style. Just keeping close to people, close to the ground … it’s all about helping people.”

And with that Andy talks about his 10 Year Plan for the country.

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65% of Americans  think it is important to do your own research on the News- Pew Research 2026.

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The European Union is about to ban social media platforms from accessing children under age 13. This is how Ursula Van Leyen puts it - it is not about children accessing social media, it is about social media platforms accessing our children, says Leyen. She will announce this in her address to the European Union in September. A new report by a psychologist Fegert and an epidemiologist Melchior comes to the conclusion that social media is harmful for children, not just under 13 years, restrictions should be placed on 13 to 18 year olds also to prevent infinite scrolling and other addictive features. Australia has announced a ban setting the age at 16 years. Britain is tightening its ban. France is planning to ban setting the age at 16. The following countries are about to do this- Denmark, France, Germany, Spain, India, Indonesia and Malaysia. When the EU announces a ban it will apply to all of Europe. In the US Florida passed a ban setting age at 14 years. Across Europe children spend 4 to 6 hours on social media a day and for 60% of children it is having harmful effects on emotional health and creating psychosocial problems for children. It also affects the education, the reading comprehension of children as less books are read, and a whole new generation of children is growing up in a way that was never before seen in the Modern period where books and reading were a key aspect of modern society for the last 200 years. ...

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How the grandiose visions of Saudi new cities in the desert are being reset after the war, and the people in the poorest countries are being faced with higher prices for food, fuel and fertilizer when they can least afford it in 2026. The media focus has been on the Hormuz without saying, A. -that now with the Omani route added to the Iranian route in Hormuz a new defacto 2 route Hormuz is setup by the US Iran agreement. B.- that China has already reset its energy policy to do without the 3 million barrels a day it got through Hormuz, India has already setup new oil supplies from Venezuela, Japan is working out new arrangements, US is creating incentives for oil companies to produce in other regions of the world. And C.- the renewable energy policies, how much energy to use per unit of GDP under effcient use, is being accelerated in EU, India, China and Japan, and indirectly also in the US as cost of renewables comes down compared to fossil fuels. These will be constructive aspects of the situation. The world also shifts away from the Middle East a source of decades of wars that brought down the Soviet Union, destroyed some economies in South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan), created the distraction for the US that led to letting its infrastructure and economy to weaken, and destroyed the economic and social fabric in many parts of the Arab world and North Africa (Libya, Iran, Iraq, Syria). It closes a chapter of the Middle East from which lessons can be drawn for a focus on economic development and using science and technology to improve living standards of the people of the world, to tackle climate change, and for peaceful cooperation of major nations. ...

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Something the US president says was "unusual" was the move to a defensive posture reverting to back five, in the substitutions, style of play, and DJT says putting Kane in defense in the second half. "You have a great player in England who I've played golf with. And he is Harry [Kane] who has been fantastic. I think they perhaps made a mistake when they made him a defensive player. What do I know about soccer? They took the lead, and they took their best player and put him on defence." "We got to be a little offensive, right. But no, I'm not going to call it, what do I know about coaching? But that was a little unusual." Messi gets a lot of media attention because of media focus is on stars. In the actual results of the Premier League, Bundesliga, and La Liga, it is Harry Kane who stands out in Bundesliga performance during the last soccer season. He is arguably as good a player as Messi, and the Argentine team would have had a lot to handle with Kane and Bellingham, Saka, Rice and Stones all pushing up front. It may have broken up the Argentine attack with rapid counterattack and the result- England may still be in the finals with Spain. ...

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Norway 2-1 against Brazil World Cup Soccer to enter round of 16 with 2 Haaland goals. Brazil failed to impress as Norway had most of the ball possession. Norway's goalkeeper Hyland made 4 brilliant saves to make it difficult for Brazil to score. Brazil's one goal came in the 98th minute when a Norwegian player was given a yellow card for elbowing a Brazilian player and Neymar made a penalty kick. Without that Brazil would have lost 2-0 after Haaland scored twice. Brazilian player Vinicius Jr. was hailed in the media but could do little, and Carlo Ancelotti as coach could not come up with any ideas to change the game. The entire World Cup in 2026 is different because of the way smaller nations have played. Nations such as Cabo Verde have held firm, Germany was defeated by Paraguay, Italy did not even make it to the round of 32 losing to Bosnia. The loss of Brazil leaves only France with Mbappe, Argentina with Messi, and England with Kane standing. US faces Belgium on Monday July 6, 2026. Argentina barely stayed on when Messi scored in overtime against Cabo Verde, nearly losing. Only the French team has played consistently. Spain meets Portugal on Monday. No one knows how it will turn out. ...

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  US's womens socceer's Carli Lloyd, who led the US women's soccer team many times in her career, was honest and blunt on FOX television coverage of the 4-1 loss to Belgium in World Cup Soccer 2026. The host country failed to make it into the quarter finals after so much advertising on television, way too much not even good for the players. There is so much money on television ads and promotions that it must hurt the players and the game. Messi, Neymar, Vinicius Jr., Pulisic, and some Mexican players, were all put up as players who could do anything on television. In the end none of them did well, Messi almost in tears after Argentina was behind 2-0 for most of the 90 minutes against Egypt, only miraculously surviving. Brazil is out going down to Paraguay. Christiano Ronaldo, the first billionaire in soccer, was a little kid from a struggling family in Madeira, Portugal, and he too went out after failing to score on several passes, with Portugal's loss to Spain. All this may be a good thing and a learning lesson for the sport. For all those who love the sport and think things have gone overboard with television advertising,  with excessive brand sponsorship on television, making entertainment stars who knows to what purpose, but losing the best of the game of soccer in the process. And these are Carli Lloyd's comments (Carli who after 318 appearances and bringing so much joy to young girls for the sport worldwide has a net worth of $2 million compared to the now billionaires and others on the way to billions, or hundreds of millions, television stars of the sport who could not get their game right in World Cup Soccer 2026.) There are lessons for the sport which is the most popular sport not only in all the developed countries but also the poorest large countries on the planet like China, India, Brazil, Egypt. “I felt like they lost the game before they even stepped out on the pitch." “And I’m not sure why, and I don’t know the reasons. But just from the beginning: chasing. Tentative. Scared. Just not confident on the ball.”  "You wanted some of those big-time players to step up in big-time moments." “And I gotta be honest: I was a bit disappointed in Christian Pulisic. Whether he wants to be the star of this team or not, we didn’t see enough from him in this particular game — and, really, the whole World Cup. Little glimpses here and there.” ...

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Iranian response to Memorandum of Understanding shows reality of 2 factions in Iran, the IRGC military faction, and the elected president Pezeshkian plus Turkey /Pakistan/Egypt and Qatar as the second faction. With IRGC military rejecting the Memorandum on opening Hormuz and discontinuing nuclear weapons programs. This was true at the time Vance conducted negotiations and the Memorandum appears to have been accepted by IRGC only under great pressure from Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar, and the faction under Iranian elected president Pezeshkian. Where IRGC thinking could have been to give  agreement to the Memorandum that they had no intention of keeping, as its policy on nuclear weapons remains unchanged, and its goal is to use Hormuz for leverage and extend its control of Hormuz channel. The cost of sanctions and not being able to export oil, the effect on its economy, on cost of living with rampant inflation, may be of little concern to the people who run the IRGC military who suppressed all dissent and protests in 2026. Protests across different parts of society to the deteriorating economy. How could the US respond? The US used the time of the ceasefire to create a new status quo by using open navigation of the seas as the principle behind opening and protecting the Omani side of the Hormuz for oil shipment. This is a principle accepted by all countries. There is a backup plan of the US, China, India, Japan and other countries and this is to prepare rapidly to do without Hormuz so that the economies of these nations are not affected. The US also supported efforts by Saudis and Kuwait, UAE, to increase oil exports through channels outside of Hormuz, UAE's decision to increase oil supplies and lower prices by leaving OPEC, and US creating alternative supplies for India through Venezuela. Most important is China's decision that it no longer needs the 5 million barrels of oil from Hormuz for its economy to operate using alternative supplies and increasing efficient use of its oil resources. The world is also building up oil supplies and inventories so that Iran cannot threaten a cutoff from Hormuz because all nations have made other arrangements. Attacks by Iran on oil shipping on the Omani side protected by the US breaking the principle of open navigation of the seas, can then be considered Iran disrupting an open seas navigation route which it no longer is allowed to do under international law. This is something the world public opinion would support. The NYT has been critical of the DJT action in Iran, the WSJ and other media had joined in criticism. The situation in July 2026 is that the criticism of the US by NYT and other media, and from Europe and other countries in Asia will now be muted, because the US has tried all the options and is now finding ways to be able to bypass Hormuz altogether, and a backup plan or strategy to minimize the impact on oil prices. So that oil price of $70 may be kept at level around 10-20% higher not much more as Iran's military IRGC continues to disrupt the Hormuz supplies.  ...

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Ugly scenes after the final whistle with Paredes, Molina, Gavi and Rodri in a fight that show the Argentine vs Spain game different from the England vs France game where the fans of both sides and players showed exhilaration and joy. France lost but Mbappe scored twice and wins goals scorer award, and Coach Didier Deschamps in his last game felt good that his team had done well and lost, fans won with a game for the ages. Media tried to reate celebrities for ads and profit but lost when Messi turned out to be a less than glamorous figure, and Rodrigo who few people know in a world of celebrity ads winning the best player award. Mbappe not as big in ads the goal scorer of this World Cup. Haaland another player not so prominent in ads popular in America. Everything the media tried to do with constant commentary by self picked stars cluttering up the television screens for hours, the World Cup found a way for something different closer to people.

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David Rubenstein's Interview of Heather Cox Richardson about the Revolutionary War after 1776 and the Civil War under Lincoln, and about American democracy in 2026, as a podcaster and a newsletter for Substack. She reaches a large audience in the northeastern, states and is based at Boston College where she is professor of American history. She says here most historians do not agree about history, and this shows as she has a unique interpretation of history. A reading of Abraham Lincoln's letters and speeches from the books published by Library of America shows a different Lincoln. Heather Richardson says Lincoln was hesitant about slavery and moved to abolition only as political situations required action. Our own reading at Lyrarc.com shows Lincoln in his debates with Douglas taking on the role of stewardship of the Nation Jefferson and Washington helped create with the Declaration of Independence, and Washington's conduct of the war (as a war of attrition that would be finally won with divine providence in the form of the aid from the French naval and military power.) His heart was with the Nation following the British example and abolishing slavery (as Britain had done under Witherspoon's leadership in parliament in 1807), and he was the principal proponent of that vision. All over Europe, from France to Britain the emancipation of man from feudalism, from slaveholding or holding people tied to the land was on the way out, and Lincoln believed that this direction was established and it was God's will expressed through his skills in debating the issues for the Nation to bring these ideas already established in Europe to the American continent. Nowhere, not even in one sentence unless taken out of context do we find Lincoln moving from his firm view, using every skill he had to push his vision forward to transform America step by step, almost as if God's own hand was guiding him in this task all the way. One has only to understand the mood of Britain to know that Lincoln knew in his heart that he would prevail. In 1772 Lord Mansfield in the Somerset vs Stewart case declared that chattel slavery had no basis under English Common law. In 1807 the British parliament abolished slavery. And in 1834 the Abolition of Slavery Act abolished slavery in the whole British Empire. By 1800 with the French Revolutionary Wars the mood was all over Europe for emancipation from feudalism, from slavery, for freedom. Lincoln was himself an expression of the mood of the time coming from a log cabin in Kentucky with little schooling and believing in the best British values in a new frontier country including its system of common law and freedoms guaranteed by an unwritten constitution. In 2026 there are views that show an hesitant ambivalent interpretation of America's resolve under Washington, Jefferson, and Lincoln, in the fight for freedom of all people by projecting the founders into the current situation. Living in their time they fought the hardest to change what they saw, no less than William Wilberforce in the British parliament for the freedom of man in 1807. Britain's parliament abolished slavery in 1807 by 283 votes to 16 to standing ovation and an emotional parliament. Wilberforce said at the time-"God Almighty has set before me two great objects, the suppression of the slave trade and the reformation of manners." Lincoln was no less a force for good under God Almighty on the American continent than Wilberforce was in Britain. Carl Sandburg's biography of Lincoln shows this on every page. ...

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Scott Bessent Treasury Secretary told the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday evening that the founders knew something more enduring than what we have come up with in the last couple of decades with chips and other technologies- " "The founders understood something far more enduring: that the fortunes of a nation are shaped by the energies of its people. Those energies transformed a small republic on the edge of a continent into the most prosperous nation in the long sweep of human civilization." We should never forget this, and we should make the energies of the American people and how it affects them the core of everything we do.  America's strengths lie not just in its natural resources and the depth of its capital markets it lies in the conditions, the character, capacity of its people- "It resides most of all in the character and the capacity of our people: the entrepreneur with an idea, the worker who can master new trades and technologies, institutions with the freedom and confidence to flourish." We must remember Bessent says what Alexander Hamilton as one of the founders in the 1780's taught us about possessing within us all the essentials of national supply, so that we produce what we need- "Alexander Hamilton taught us: that every nation “ought to endeavor to possess within itself all the essentials of national supply.” Our strength is derived from what we can build, for the nation that can’t produce what it needs isn’t truly secure. The nation that depends on its adversaries for critical inputs isn’t truly sovereign. And the nation that reduces its economics to consumption isn’t truly prosperous." Access to cheap supplies of goods is not what the American Dream was and is about from the beginning of the settlement of this continent in 1620's and throughout the period before and after independence for 400 years.  "Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American Dream. The American Dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility, and economic security. For too long, the designers of multilateral trade deals have lost sight of this. International economic relations that do not work for the American people must be re-examined." ...