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Canada's pitch to the US before tough negotiations with Jamieson Greer to preserve Canada's automobile industry, its aluminium industry, dairy industry with benefits gained in the past. US had also put forward its pitch for 82% North American content and 50% of it from the US for all automobiles sold in the US. Carney takes a positive approach presenting Canada as a strong partner that would Make America Great Again by offering its vast mineral resources, and its resources of oil and LNG. It says LNG will double from 2030 to 2040 from 50 million to 100 million tonnes of LNG annually. 56 critical minerals agreements with $18 billion in investment, doubling the electricity grid for lowest cost power and second lowest emission in OECD countries. Canada is an anomaly in trade says Sir Ivor Jennings in his book on the British Commonwealth. Its trade east to west is an anomaly when if it was truly apart of the North American economic region it would trade north to south. This is the result of Montgomery's failure to take Quebec during the War of Independence as Washington planned the war with Britain. For instance Ontario would trade with Vermont and New Hampshire and New York near its borders. Instead the dairy industry in Canada operates in competition with the US and sends product east to west. Washington and Oregon are not trading normally with neighbors British Columbia instead shipping product back to eastern Canada. For years the US allowed Canada and Mexico benefits in trade that hurt is own auto industry. Jamieson Greer is expected to change this so that US manufacturing can compete with China and European Union on a level playing field. ...

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Britain's plan for a green world include Boris Johnson's plan to invest 12 billion pounds to do this. Of this $2 billion will go into promoting cycling and walking. After his own conversion to exercize, into taking a run every morning, this comes with conviction. Some of this will go to setting up cycling paths and roads where bicycles are the main form of transportation. The ban on petrol or gasoline cars moves up to 2030 o accelerate the shift. More green space and parks, more trails for running, and less air pollution for better health.

The firs zero emission laung haul airplane is part of the effort and investment. 600,000 electric heat pumps a year, planting 30,000 hectares of woodland each year. Enough power from offshore windpower to provide electricity to every home in Britain by 2030. And gilts or financial instruments for Green financing in London as financial center by the Treasury department.

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University fees in Britain are set at 9250 pounds a year and millions of people have tens of thousands of student debt. The student loan book in Britain is already at 120 billion pounds and it weighs in heavily on young people starting life after college affecting the quality of life. 

The Green party says it will cost 40 billion pounds for waiver of recoverable student debt over 5 years. The Labour Party in Britain is looking at following the Green Party's support of writing off the student debt. Labour has said it will abolish student fees. Labour party's McDowell says the system was designed so that much of the student debt would remain unpaid and it is time to clear this and take this burden off the shoulders of young people. 

This would also give the economy a boost as young people are better able to afford basics such as housing, food and services after this is lifted.

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This editorial in the WSJ says the resignation and downfall of Boris Johnson in Britain comes from the dissembling that resulted in loss of confidence in his Conservative party, but also in a larger sense from the failure of his agenda to revive Britain.  Not much has happened in the promise to invest in and revive the failing economy and social setting in the north of England. Inflation was hitting British households hard with inflation at close to 9% in 2022. Home electricity and natural gas prices spiked 54% in April and are expected to go up 40% in October. Johnson raised the payroll tax 2.5% to fund the NHS. Corporate tax rate was to go up to 26% from 19%. Green taxes helped energy prices go up, and Johnson did not cut the consumption tax or green taxes on gasoline or diesel or household energy says the WSJ, and kept the household income tax brackets the same even with inflation so households would see a large tax increase. In this sense Boris Johnson with his exuberant personal style and enthusiasm promised a lot after taking Britain out of the European Union with Brexit. Yet as the months dragged on and after the worst of the pandemic found there was little he could show that would convince Britons of a brighter future. Not for the North of England, not for Britons in other parts of England and in London, and with high inflation and lacking the investment that could change Britain, not much to show for infrastructure improvement or plans for the future. The dissembling and eroding credibility led to the situation that only half way through his term in office his absolute majority in the 2019 election could not keep Boris Johnson in office, and the Conservative party was losing the confidence of the British people.  ...

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Kristof of the NYT writes about DJT Action in Venezuela January 3, 2026.  Some of the least understood aspects of the US president's language on Venezuela- The president's reference to oil resources is not for the US to benefit from the oil reserves. It is about oil in the sense that the oil industry in Venezuela is in total disrepair and broken from years and decades of nationalization followed by lack of investment, lack of western technology.  Sanctions put a huge price on the Venezuelan economy with the brunt of it borne by ordinary people- the same people that a socialist like Hugo Chavez thought he could help with his erratic ideology. As China, and now India has learned the only way to get ahead in this world for nations is to invest, invest, invest with larger and larger pools of capital, technologies and labour. By alienating the US or EU there is a loss of technologies and of investment so that one is going to bat with only one strike and you are out, so that from Day 1, China under Mao, India under Nehru had lost the race, so did all the "socialist" regimes in the world. Conversely China under Deng and successors, and India under Modi are breaking development records. How does the US change this? First it removes the sanctions on the Venezuelan economy. Second it gives Chevron the green light for increased production. Oil facilities of the Venezuelan oil company will get foreign investment and US investment from American oil companies with returns for both and the state oil revenues invested under a government that is able to invest it free of corruption or it being funneled out of the country to support other regimes in Latin America. This will rebuild the country's health system, its broken infrastructure, restore its finances, and make it in a decade one of the advanced economies in Latin America. But only if- the gangs and other private militias, the other military elements from the two decades of utter mismanagement and drug trafficking are  removed. A new way will have to be devised that the US as to work out ad hoc meaning in the process of doing, invented that meets the conditions of getting this done and the process of reconstruction of Venezuela under the Monroe doctrine of keeping the entire western hemisphere free of such elements. The US achieved this with the help of Great Britain in 1823 when it was only 50 years since it's founding in 1776. The US has the resources in 2026 to make this happen in the interests of the people of the western hemisphere, in the quality of life of people in the western hemisphere. It does not seek any country's resources, it seeks the development of the countries in the western hemisphere in the great tradition of Jefferson, Monroe, Lincoln, FDR and JFK. ...

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With a general election approaching in Britain the question about a progressive alliance is brought up in the Guardian. A big block is the Labour party with its obsession for vote share, and not seeking alliances of any kind. The Liberal Democrats are creating their own barriers with hostility towards Labour party. This report cites Best for Britain data and says 457 seats are immune to alliances. Of 150 marginals 111 seats the numbers show if SNP, Lib Democrats, Greens swung behind Labour party  it would make a big difference. as in 30 seats even a 5% swing from Labour to the Lib Democrats would give the seat to the Conservatives. The other approach is to have informal alliances at the grassroots level so that progressive candidates can do well.

 

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The Glasgow COP26 summit could be the beginning of a new era for mankind as the city that started the industrial revolution in Britain takes the world on a turn into a new era of ecologically conscious living. This BBC report looks at changes we should be experiencing in 2022 to 2030. Electric cars that take the place of current automobiles, increasing use of construction materials other than cement and concrete, use of solar and wind energy. From a mental health standpoint lifestyles built around walking and cycling, more forested areas and green spaces in and around cities, cleaner air, quieter cities, food choices and agricultural choices made around health and better ecology. Personal investments, corporate investments and pensions of $139 trillion invested in a way that cuts carbon emissions. Governments and private citizens enabling transparency and regulation, weekly monitoring on matters relating to emissions in one's own neighborhoods and local region.  ...

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Nigel Farage is making a comeback in European Union elections in Britain. He led the Independence party and has formed a new Brexit Party to contest the elections. He says the Brexit supporters were deserted in the way the Conservative Party bungled Britain's leaving the European Union. As a result of loss of support for Theresa May with the mess created by repeated failures to pass Brexit deals in parliament, some polls show the Brexit Party surging to 34% of the vote inEuropean elections. The Conservative Party at 11%, and the Labour Party at 21%. The Liberal Democrats at 13%. The Conservative party fragments, and the Labour Party loses supporters to the Greens and Liberal Democrats. Another change is that some of the pro-Brexit supporters of the Labour Party in the middle and the north of the country may shift their vote to the Brexit party. The Conservative party's losses of support are a result of the failure of Theresa May to hold her party together. In the case of the Labour party even though it had 40%  of the vote in the last British election, it is faced with the fact that it has an odd mix of supporters. In the north and the middle of the country its working class support comes partly from Pro-Brexit supporters, and in the cities and London the support is from more liberal, better educated people. This puts both the main parties in the situation which they never thought they would be in.  Mr. Farage says its OK for Britain to leave the European Union without a deal. Prime Minister May has taken great pains to forge a deal, even a cross party deal with Labour if necessary. This has alienated the most fervent Brexit supporters in the Conservative Party who favor a no-deal Brexit. Much of this comes from caution that a no-deal Brexit would hurt Britain's economy and lower growth. A large majority in parliament believes a no deal Brexit would be disastrous for Britain. Nigel Farage does not have to deal with such distant matters as economic growth, the British pound and GDP.       ...

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Keir Starmer and the Labor party's plans for Britain are laid out in this interview in The Observer. He says "This will be a bold and reforming Labor government bringing about real change, that I hope will be felt through the generations." On the 13 years of Tory Conservatives in government- "It is important that everybody asks themselves: am I better off now than when this government started 13 years ago? Is the health service working better? Have my wages gone up in real terms? Is the criminal justice system better? Is anything better? And the answer to those questions is going to be no, no, no, no, no, no." On change even though Labor will be fiscally savy and prudent- "So therefore we need change. We have to be the party of change. Are we going to inherit a very broken country including the economy? Yes, we are. I accept that. But I don't accept that that means we can't inject real purpose and meaning into change." Starmer wants to get the economy of Britain growing again. He plans to do this by making Britain a world leader in a green industrial revolution and through redistributing power to the regions to take advantage of opportunities to tackle climate change. "Clean. energy by 2030 is critically essential. And we will be part of the global race in renewables." "There is a theory of growth that you grow London and the southeast even faster and redistribute to the rest of the country. I reject that model, as I want growth in every part of the country." Home ownership for first timers- "I want Labor to be the party of home ownership." Starmer wants to build 300,000 houses every year and first time buyers given preference, no foreign buyers.  ...

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The head of the CDU party who would become chancellor after Merkel, makes an emotional plea to the British people to change their mind and remain in the European Union. In an affectionate letter to The Times of London many leading figures from politics, industry and the arts in Germany made a plea that Britain remain in the EU "from the bottom of their hearts." A look at dozens of letters in response to this article in The Times shows that many Britons feel that Britain would have voted to remain if Germany and Merkel had given prime minister Cameron a better response during negotiations in 2016. Even chancellor Merkel warned Germans not to take an indifferent or complacent attitude to Britain's staying in the EU. The letter makes amends by saying there is an indissoluble bond between Britain and Germany because of the help given by Britain to rebuild Germany after the war. "Without your great nation this nation would not be what it is today, defined by freedom and prosperity," the letter says. It says "should Britain wish to leave the EU it will always have friends in Germany and Europe. But Britons should equally know that know choice is irreversible. Our door will always remain open: Europe is home."  Katarina Barley, Germany's Justice Minister whose father is British, says she supports a second referendum on Brexit. The letter is signed by Andrea Nahles, head of the Social Democrats, Annalena Baerbock head of the Greens party. Also signing it are the heads of Daimler, Airbus and the German Federation of Industry. Annegret Karrenbauer, head of the CDU says it is looking for constructive proposals from Britain, now that the deal put forward in the British parliament was defeated by a large margin. "We will not block the path to Britain remaining in the EU." The letter is significant in that it changes the whole tone of German leaders across the spectrum towards Britain- as critical to the idea of Europe, and the dawning in German minds that Europe would never be Europe without Britain, would never be Europe simply with France and Germany and the other nations. ...

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Corruption in Greece, just as the Greek economy burdened with some of the largest debt in the European Union. The threatens to weaken the EU with the prospect of Germany and other countries having to help Greece avoid adefault on its debt. This would only draw markets attention to other economies like ireland, Britain and Italy which are also burdened with large debt.

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The Adani Group's public offering of $2.5 billion was slightly oversubscribed says the WSJ after a short seller in New York City Nathan Anderson issued a report critical of the company. Adani Group is a set of companies in India that have taken  up the ambitious goals of electrifying India with its population of 1.3 billion so that no home lacks an electric bulb light for children to read. It is under criticism because this means coal mines in Australia provide the coal that provides this electricity when coal is used in China and India to provide much needed electricity. Adani Group is unique in that it is making the rapid transition into renewable energy in line with PM Modi's goal of generating 50% of electricity from renewable energy by 2030.  Adani Total Gas Limited fell by 10%, Adani Green Energy and Adani Transmission made low percentage gains.   Thirty anchor investors provided $734 million including American banks.  This includes Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Life Insurance Corporation of India. Abu Dhabi based International Holding Company said it would buy $400 million in shares in a public show of support for the Adani Group. Adani Group will use the proceeds to fund capital expenditures on green energy projects, expressway construction and airport improvements and repay some debt. The building of India's Uttar Pradesh Expressway is being done by Adani Group which is similar to what happened under US president Eisenhower in the 1950's in building the first Interstate Highway system in the US. In 1953 after Dwight Eisenhower became president he developed the plan for a national Interstate Highway system that led to the passing of the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956. This is happening today in India. Airport and port improvements taken up by Adani Group help build India's woefully inadequate freight logistics to make it a part of the US new supply chain after the errors of overconcentration in one country China. Green energy projects help fight climate change where investments are badly needed and governments in the US and India are giving much needed direction and support. It is in this context that the huge growth of the Adani Group can be seen. It is not similar to the Tech company valuations simply because it is like China's effort under state owned companies to match the growing demand for electricity for industrialization. During the British Empire after 1800 capital from India financed the Napoleonic wars, industrialization of Britain, and indirectly industrialization of the United States through British capital invested in the US in the period before 1860. Capital that was diverted from India, and through British trade that impoverished China. As a result the growth in China after 1990, Korea after 1980 and India after 2014 comes in a catchup mode to meet the growing aspirations of hundreds of millions of young people with some companies state or private owned picking up the pace in an unprecedented way. This is the raison d'etre of the Adani Group. China's total installed capacity of electricity has increased from about 500 GW in 2005 to 2500 GW in 2021. This is the story repeating itself in India with Adani Group and other companies such as NTPC, State Grid and Tata Power setting over five fold increase. ...

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Gerald Seib of the WSJ says president Biden is coming back with new actions to revive the Democratic agenda after a challenging period in the first year. Yesterday's first formal press conference of 2022 gave Biden an opportunity to respond. Why the WSJ, NYT, did not cover on their online edition front pages president Biden's first formal press conference on Jan. 19, after 1 year of the Biden administration, will remain a mystery. With the American press acting this way it did not take much for Germany's DW.com to run the story with the title "Biden's first year weighed down by disappointment," with a thoughtful Biden at the press conference replaced by a picture of Biden staring downwards.  This is only the first year of the Biden administration. Actions are planned to ease the supply chain situation and bottlenecks at ports. Much is made of inflation, Afghanistan, Ukraine, by Republicans assailing the Biden record. President Biden responded to this by asking at the press conference what Republicans are for. On Afghanistan Biden held firm on not investing billions of dollars every week when there is so much need in America and the rest of the world at this time of the pandemic after a failed adventure for 20 years in "a graveyard for empires."  Biden pointed to the bright spots in 2022- vaccination and testing achievements in the face of anti-vax sentiment with 200 million vaccinated, the job creation in the economy with unemployment way down and wage increases by employers, and the $1 trillion in infrastructure spending tackling much needed projects state by state with immediate impact. Rarely has a president faced so many challenges in the first year as Biden pointed out- vaccination drive in the face of the Delta variant and anti-vax sentiment, the Ukraine crisis with a president Truman period like event of the Berlin Wall coming up just potentially around the corner, and efforts to tackle problems left untackled for a generation in infrastructure, for working families and climate change. Scoring on infrastructure spending, one of the three, with the other two for working families and climate change to be tackled in the remaining three years and beyond.  Biden also told the American audience at the press conference that he was reminded of what his father used to tell him- that if all goals are equally important, nothing is important. In saying this he said help for working families through child tax credit, child care assistance, community college education funding, health care costs, climate change investment were priorities for his administration that would be tackled step by step. And he pointed out from the outset of the conference that only one or two senators were blocking the party's plan for children and working families. All 48 other senators were united in the Democratic party behind his plans for workers and families. As were 5 Republican senators who he said he would not disclose because of confidentiality. In that sense president Biden already has the majority he needs in Congress. This is not happening because of the peculiar situation of the 2016 and 2020 elections in the US and also in Europe- the historical problem of administrations of Democrats in US, Social Democrats in Germany, and Labor in Britain having give up on their working class families and middle class roots. Tech revolution and internet has further complicated the situation with economic changes, tech companies not paying taxes normally due, and tech workers shifting to Democrats yet living in a world distant from working class families fracturing social cohesion. This is changing in Germany with Scholz in Germany with the help of the Greens determined to restore the dignity of working class families, for Biden with a similar coalition, and a process underway in Britain as Labor returns to its roots. In essence Biden was saying- the process of unwinding decades of unwise policy that hurt America as a nation and leader of the free world would take time, requiring a patient step by step approach. To bring America closer to its own roots and Jefferson's immortal words of "all men are created equal and endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, and among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness." Jefferson went on to say in the Declaration that when government becomes destructive of these ends it is the Right of the People to alter it.   ...

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The Labour leader and prime minister of Britain met Donald Trump during a trip to speak at the UN General Assembly in New York on September 26, 2024 Starmer has misgivings that Trump may withhold support for the United Nations and its framework for maintaining peace in the world, and tackling issues of development and climate change. Britain's leader Starmer told the UN General Assembly- "People talk about an age of polarization, impunity, instability and an unraveling of the U.N. charter. And I feel a sense of fatalism has taken hold.” “But our task is to say no … This is the moment to reassert fundamental principles and our willingness to defend them. To recommit to the U.N., to internationalism, to the rule of law.” With Macron's shaky coalition government in France, and a coalition government in Germany with less popular Greens, FDP and Social Democrats, Russia engaged in a conflict with NATO in Ukraine, Starmer speaks for Europe at an important time to recommit to the UN Charter and uphold the principles of the UN for the betterment of mankind. ...

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Jose de Cordoba of the WSJ provides this excellent story on the nature of the migration crisis in the U.S. that is creating political divisions in the U.S. What is causing this surge in migration to the U.S.? Cordoba provides some useful insights to understand the nature of this problem. Nine out of ten migrants in Guatemala which sends most of the migrants from Central America are moving north from Guatemala through Mexico to the U.S. for financial reasons, it points out. Only 10% are because of violence in the region, the rest for financial reasons according to the United Nations International Organization for Migration The jump in apprehension of Guatemalans at the American border shows a surge from 15,000 in 2007 to 236,000 in 9 months of 2019, according to U.S. government data. The surge began in 2008 and jumped in 2014 after U.S. court rulings that first required migrant children to be allowed to join relatives in the U.S. followed by a ruling in 2015 that allowed a parent to join the children and allowed court proceedings to take place that takes years. The result was that smugglers advertised on radio and families sold small plots of land to join relatives in the U.S. who had gone before them. The migration is also specific to certain areas hit by damage to crops, including coffee crop from drought, or certain towns that simply sent more people simply for financial reasons advertised openly.  For 8 hours of work a migrant could make at $12 per hour amount of $96 per day, in Guatemala the daily wage would be about $5.  Overwhelmingly it is financial reasons or economic opportunity that sends migrants north. After it became known that kids could help migration the people in family groups apprehended at the border jumped from about 40,000 in 2015 to 390,000 in fiscal 2019. Smugglers charge $8600 per adult and half that for a child and an adult that can be dropped off at a checkpoint. The efforts of president Trump to close the border to this migration include having Mexico sign an agreement to police its southern border with Guatemala using its newly setup National Guard. As a result the migration has actually surged in 2019 with migrants seeing this as their one last opportunity to join relatives in the U.S. or to migrate to the U.S. The Trump administration tried separating families because of the loophole in the law that allows children to be not deported and parents to join their children. But this created a public outcry and the effort now is to close the loophole in the law. It is also strange that as many migrants are coming from one town Joyabaj  with population 100,000 as from Guatemala City the capital population 2.5 million. In fact the economy has grown by 3.4 % a year in Guatemala and efforts have been made to improve conditions with the help of donor countries in the West for several years, though the drought conditions exist. The situation is similar to that in Europe. If one looks at the violence by gangs in central American region after the end of the guerilla wars and compares it to the wars in Syria and Iraq, one can see how humanitarian concerns preceded what eventually turned out tobe a full blown migration for economic reasons. Initially chancellor Merkel adopted a humanitarian stance but failed to recognize that there was another side to his situation that would attract a wave of economic migrants from places as far apart as North Africa to Afghanistan. Poverty has existed in these regions for many many years before the current migration, with drought and lack of economic opportunity going far back in time. Merkel only recently recognized this problem and the new CDU leader Kambrauer has clearly recognized this. CDU policy shifted in 2018-2019 with curbs on economic migration that has reduced it to a trickle. This process is underway in the U.S. at its border with Mexico and for Mexico with its border with Guatemala. In the short run Europe and the U.S. are paying a price. Not just in the way it has divided each country with a far left and a far right eroding the centrist parties that existed before. In some cases centrist parties that were popular on the right and the left now hve leaders from a far right or a far left faction within the centrist ruling parties. Boris Johnson in Britain, Trump in the U.S., leaders in Italy, Austria and Hungary. Or as in Germany and Spain new far left or far right parties causing the centrist parties to dwindle in influence or as in Germany this combined with a shift to the Green Party in Germany and Liberals Party in Britain as a show of disapproval for how the migration issue has been tackled.  The Economist in a July 2019 issue also points out that the country's own citizens have fared worse with migration. It shows how the Conservative Party's austerity cuts for welfare budgets was popular in Britain as long as eastern European migration at high levels in Britain were allowed starting with the Labour party under Blair. This disproportionately hurt the middle class and the poor after the hit already taken from the faulty banking caused recession. With the drop in migration it is now felt by a majority in Britain that the austerity cuts have just gone too far and a mood is set in to restore many of the cuts and fund public services. Meantime some of the damage has been done and will take a decade to correct as the issues that mangled the centrist parties and led to fragmentation on views of what society should look like have taken place with Brexit and high levels of poverty, income inequality in Britain, lack of investment in infrastructure with overallocation to tech with declining productive benefit for every additional dollar spent. ...

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A 93 year old hero of the French Resistance, Stephane Hessel, publishes a pamphlet called "Indignez-Vous!," released by a small publishing house from the publisher's home. He calls for resisting the "international dictatorship of the financial markets" and "defending the values of modern democracy." He protests France's treatment of illegal immigrants, the influence on the media by the affluent, cuts to the social safety net, French educational reforms. It was first published in October, and now has sold 1.5 million copies, all through word of mouth advertising. It has been translated into Spanish, Italian, Portuguese, and Greek. New editions are planned for Slovenian, Korean, Japanese, Swedish and other languages. In Britain, it was published with the title "Time for Outrage." The pamphlet is about 4000 words and only 14 pages of text. Its timing is good, as the French are debating what to do in their politics with an election approaching and Sarkozy's standing at new lows. The short length and low price are a big plus, at $4 it made a convenient Christmas gift. Britain, Spain, Portugal and Greece are going through austerity cuts. Public sentiment has been aroused by the cuts, and by the overarching influence of financial markets on the economies of these countries. Some of these countries referred derisively as piigs- Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain -countries in the financial markets. The economic impact has fallen disproportionately on the young, with high jobless rate for young people from Italy to Spain, and cuts in funding for universities and schools in the UK also fall heavily on young people. A sense that something has gone wrong in the free market system and the western world. Austerity cuts in spending in the U.S. create a similiar feeling and joblessness among young people is also high in the U.S....

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This report in DW.com discusses the quick rise of Annalena Baerbock, 40 years, to the co-leader role with better known Robert Habeck, 51 years, at a party conference in 2018. In the winter of 2019 she was supported by a huge 97% of delegates at the party conference, with Habeck getting 90%. She has an advantage in foreign policy issues with her education in England at the London School of Economics, where she studied for her Masters degree in International Law. She speaks fluent English, rare in German politics. Baerbock spent 1 year in the US when she was only 16 years old. Very useful now with changes in Europe, the US and India. Boris Johnson in Britain, Biden in the US, and Modi in India, all speaking English.  She has spoken up against xenophobia, and being from Potsdam in the east is able to understand issues facing East Germany. A big change Baerbock says happened in 2019. Then she and Habeck decided to open up the Greens to become a big tent party that welcomes people from all sides. This was a smart choice at the time as Germans moved away from the two main parties- the SPD and the CDU. Dismay from the Schroder years when working class issues were ignored, and dissatisfaction with the Merkel years when investments in infrastructure, social care, health, education were neglected.  AfD support has stalled with the end of the migrant crisis and immigration no longer an issue. Baerbock says today of that 2019 party conference- "What we knew then was that we wanted to open our party up, that we wanted to make policies for a broad society: inviting and with clear objectives. Here today I want to make an offer, for the whole of society, as an invitation to lead our diverse, strong, rich country into a good future." Key changes that could happen in Germany in 2022- Phase out of coal powered energy by earlier date than 2038. No support for increased defense spending. Yet this is not likely to be an issue with the new American Biden administration. Infrastructure and vital investments in health and education would become a top priority similar to the US, UK and India. Careful policy coordination by Germany with the US, UK, France, India and Japan, and other EU nations, as the world shifts into a period in which lessons learned from the pandemic and the last three decades lead to renewal of supply channels and renewal of societies.   ...

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The facts that guide one's understanding of what is happening in Greece relate to the size of the public sector for a small country like Greece, and the failure of people from all classes of society from cab drivers and civil servants to small business and the shipping industry, to pay taxes. These two twin facts and a splurge of spending during and after the 2004 Olympics without proper and correct account keeping, has brought Greece to its present situation. One estimate is that every Greek person would owe 27,000 dollars, that is how much the national debt has swollen to- a massive 300 billion euros debt for a small country. This is 115% of its GDP. And the public sector spending simply went unchecked by different governments trying to win votes. Estimates are that the public sector makes up 40% of Greece's GDP, and government workers are 15% of the active workforce. Not paying taxes has become a societal trait in Greece, as a result the government does not collect an estimated 25 billion euros a year in taxes each year. And this does not include the taxes that would be paid if owners in the Greek shipping industry were to not take advantage of an exemption from paying taxes granted by the government. The result- Greece's socialist government of Prime Minister Papandreou has accepted a $110 billion euro bailout from the European Union and the IMF which comes with cuts in public spending and austerity measures designed to reduce the deficit form 13.6% of GDP to 3% in 3 years. Its important to understand what is happening in Greece, because from Prime Minister Cameron in Britain (with his cuts in government department spending of 25% over 5 years), to Prime Minister Naoto Kan of Japan (with a planned doubling of the sales tax), the mood in Europe and Japan is shifting to austerity measures that would correct excessive government spending. In Greece Papandreou and his ministers are making serious efforts to change a culture of not paying taxes. See the groups and links for Papandreou and Greece....

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The close alliance between the CDU and the CSU in Bavaria appears to be unraveling. The immigrants at German borders have dwindled down a trickle, about 11,000 immigrants today compared to the wave of immigrants entering Germany in 2015. The CSU's prime minister in Bavaria Mr. Soder and the Federal Interior minister from the CSU Mr. Seehofer, blame the conflict between the two parties on the 2015 decision by Merkel on immigration. The German ARD broadcaster shows 62% of Germans favor stronger action on immigration. The pressure on the CSU comes from the gains by the anti-immigration party AfD in recent national elections. The CSU hopes that by shifting its own position on immigration to a standoff with the CDU and Merkel's position it can hold off the Afd in the elections in Bavaria in October 2018. The pressure on Merkel comes from members in the CDU and from the SPD leadership, which have accomodated some of the criticism of open immigration to reduce the immigrants at German borders, yet now see the need to meet any challenges to Merkel's authority. This is why the head of the SPD, Ms. Nahles called Mr. Soder's push for a confrontation on the immigration issue as acting "like a bonzai Trump." The CDU party leaders in Bavaria call for a "axis of the willing" joining leaders of the governments in Austria and Hungary. and the newly elected government in Italy to impose immediate controls on immigration at the borders. Merkel says she is open to different points of view within the CDU-CSU alliance, but action should be based on keeping the European Union together, and be taken after EU meetings in Brussels. Will this result in a fall of the government? Angela Merkel has adapted to the changing situation on immigration leading to the small trickle in new immigrants at German borders today. Even if the AfD anti immigration party joins the CSU the percentage of the vote for the AfD is mainly in the eastern part of Germany, and CSU in Bavaria, with 12.6% voting AfD in 2017 elections, and about 7% voting CSU mainly in Bavaria. This compares with the Left at 8.9%, Greens at 9.2%, and SPD at 20.5% for a combined 38.6% of the vote that favor Merkel's new coalition policies. This combined with the 25% of the vote gained by Merkel's CSU party gives it about 64% of the vote and about 489 seats in the 709 seat German parliament. A test of Merkel's authority is not likely to be sustained. By making this a pro-European position Merkel has shifted the issue from one of immigration which is now minimal and one on which Merkel has adapted her policies to a stand on Germany as leader with France of the European Union. At this particularly sensitive time when Germany and France are negotiating with the U.S. on trade and Britain on Brexit, German public opinion is likely to consider the impact of new elections and more uncertainty as not good for Germany. With the SPD, Left, Greens and CSU having 64% of the vote, and the anti immigrant parties CSU, AFD about 20% concentrated in the less economically developed eastern part and in Bavaria, the chances that Merkel's position would be weakened or her authority challenged is very unlikely.   ...

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Adam Neumann, the 40 year old startup founder of WeWork, which is basically a subleaser of real estate space, resigns. Aggressive brash attitude, a party heavy lifestyle, unpredictable decision making,  are cited by WSJ as reasons he lost the confidence of investors. Mr. Dimon of JP Morgan Chase was a key banker for the company. Chase under Dimon pursued startups in the hope of doing the IPO's. The company has substantial losses, and new management was brought in after Softbank decided Neumann should leave. Growth was fast, losses also mounted fast to $1.6 billion. WSJ says many investors decided that WeWork was not a tech company so much as a overvalued real estate company that engaged in business of leasing office space tricked out in millenial friendly decor. The greed for outsize returns has led to the accumulation of capital that could otherwise be spent wisely on infrastructure and other improvements in health and education, even though many of the gains in tech are behind us.  Recently the head of Uber was also asked to resign for an aggressive approach and questionable management style, also with substantial losses, and new management brought in. Fast expansion in an imprudent manner affects established companies. It led to collapse of India's Jet Airways, Britain's Thomas Cook in 2019. Yet the huge amount of capital of tens of billions of dollars wasted as investors seek outsize returns and are disappointed, is a pattern seen mostly in capital markets in the U.S. and to a lesser extent in Europe, China, Japan. The ideas piggyback on some aspect of tech already developed and are not major tech advances by and of themselves, and many as in the case of WeWork are touted as tech because of the catch and appeal of the word for everyone hoping to make an outsize return.    ...

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Douglas Wilson was born in Annapolis, Maryland, before his father, a Baptist pastor, moved the family to Idaho in the American West.  Wilson started a Christian revival movement from Christ Church, Idaho, which is based on his views of Calvinism and the original teachings of Christianity dating back to the Mayflower Compact of 1602 set in Geneva, which outlined the vision of the early colonists to America of the relations between the church and the government, setting forth their vision. This is America going back to the earliest days in 1600, of Britain and Northern Europe, and the settlement of a vast continent 185 years before the drafting at a convention for the new Republic, of the United States of America the 13 original colonies in 1787. The original roots of the Nation in the Geneva Compact of 1602 can still be seen in Geneva, Switzerland, near the Calvinist cathedral in the center of the French Swiss town of Geneva, that acted as a crossroads for the prominent ideas on Christian thought at the time. From it's earliest days for the colonists since 1602, the Tynsdale Bible of the 16th century that brought it into the English language from Latin and Greek, and its offshoot the Authorized King James Version of the Bible of 1611 formed the basis of civilized life in the American colonies, and helped the colonists seek a new world in the wilderness that was the North American continent in the years 1600 to 1780. In the early years of the 13 colonies on the Atlantic seaboard, and further west into Ohio and Michigan- vast untamed forests, mountains, lakes and rivers. From 1780 to the 1880 this wilderness extended into the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming upto the Pacific. Ideas of Common Prayer in schools and in everyday life informed the society of the time and was integrated in all parts of life. Only after 1780 were the ideas of separation of church and state developed by Madison and Jefferson for the constitutional framework of orderly government and respect for rights of citizens to practice their faith. At no point was it intended to take the Common Prayer out of schools, which is essentially a new idea from the 19th century. There is mention of Asian religions Buddhism and the religion of the Upanishads in India in the argument against prayer in schools,  yet it is a fact that this is only a theory as immigration from China, Japan, and India was actively discouraged, and also banned in many ways, till the Irish Kennedy administration in 1960. And it is also a fact that Mohandas Gandhi the leader of India drew great inspiration from the King James 1611 version of the Bible, and it helped him deepen his religious beliefs in the Upanishads to create the modern Indian state for 1.4 billion people in Asia. Most of the hymns of the Christian faith were known to Gandhi and formed part of his beliefs, when the Common Prayer itself started disappearing from American schools in a post war reaction to colonialism, imperialism and racial discrimination, such that it depleted the very reserves of civilization, of wisdom and thought, of science and technology, that helped create America out of the wilderness. ...

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The Portuguese government asked the European Union for bailout loans. The aid the EU is providing to Portugal comes with conditions- asking Portugal to make additional austerity cuts even as new elections loom. The aid is essentially more loans at high interest rates, even if the rates are lower than the steep rates in financial markets for a country with a collapsing credit rating. There is serious concern about whether this formula applied by the EU is going to work because at this rate it may take a decade or more for Portugal to pay off all the loans. The major problem is that with severe spending cuts- a country that lacks competitiveness and cannot devalue its currency because of being the euro zone- it is that much harder to generate growth. Simon Tilford, chief economist for the Center for European Reform in London, says the EU leaders have failed to come to grips with the core of the problem for Ireland, Greece and now Portugal- which is how to restore the finances to some sustainability, and how this could ever be achieved by a policy of deeper and deeper spending cuts. Tilford points out that the other more fundamental problem EU leaders are not tackling, is that the problem is deep down the large amount of Portuguese, Irish and Greek debt held by German, French, British, Spanish and Dutch banks. If these countries default the governments of these countries would have to recapitalize their banks at the expense of the taxpayers of Germany, France, Britain, Netherlands. Political leaders of these countries want to avoid confronting angry taxpayers and lose political support. Germany has called for a bondholder haircut, something that banking interests do not support. Tilford says Portugal is not getting a bailout, because for a bailout there would need to be a default by Portugal. What it is getting along with Ireland and Greece, are loans at high interest rates, and an EU plan that simply stifles the ability to pay back accumulated debt, leaving the situation in limbo for some future resolution....

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Gabriele Steinhauser's interview July 16, 2015 with the chief of eurozone finance ministers, Dutch finance minister Dijsselbloem. He tells Steinhauser the lowest moment in the crisis came on the night of July 5 when the referendum results were announced. He expected a "no" vote as he knows this is the way this sort of referendum turns out. He was present in all the critical moments of the crisis. And this moment gave him a sad feeling because of his conviction that it would take tough measures to sort out something like Greece, and the Greek people had been given the idea that this vote could change things. He says Tsipras heard a lot from European leaders on July 7 about lack of trust. Following an ultimatum to Greece about Grexit or acceptance of the measures to be taken, and Greece's acceptance on July 9, more hurdles emerged on July 11, 2015. One came from the IMF with an estimate of 86 billion euros as the cost of new loans to Greece, and possible writedowns on 180 billion euros already loaned. He says Greece's new finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, a Oxford educated economist, who was Alternate Minister for International Economic Affairs in the Syriza government from Jan to July 5, 2015, showed a remarkable ability to absorb the criticism as a lot of the bad news surfaced. A Wikipedia note on Tsakalotos shows a similiar background 10 years apart for George Osborne, Britain's chancellor of the Exchequer, and Tsakalotos- both educated at St. Paul's school and Oxford, and Tsakalotos's wife Heather Gibson also from Britain. Tsakalotos was seen as being at ease with the EU ministers, who thanked him for his attitude, of grace under a lot of pressure, and the way he handled the matter. Another piece of difficult news, says Dijsselbloem, was the insistence of German finance minister Schauble on a default scenario of Greece opting out of the euro for a number of years being included in a eurozone statement. After 17 hours of drafting, the final statement left this scenario out. It included a 50 billion euro privatization fund with half to be setup to help capitalize Greek banks, quarter to pay down debt, and a quarter to generate economic growth. Compared to the day following the referendum, Dijsselbloem says he feels it will be a difficult road with many problems, but he feels now that it can be sorted out. Stangely he does not make any mention of the role of the French under premier Valls and president Hollande between July 6 and July 9, including sending advisors to Greece to help draft proposals, in turning the situation around. Only saying he is relieved- possibly of not having some of the burden of the failure to resolve the crisis falling on the Dutch finance minister....

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It is the US that has stood steadfastly for freedom from colonization by European Powers in the Western Hemisphere and also in China and India. President James Monroe told Congress in 1823- "The nations of America are equally sovereign and independent with those of Europe. The people of the United States cannot, therefore, view with indifference attempts of European powers to interfere with the independent action of the nations on this continent." Nowhere is there even a hint of American effort to suppress freedom-  it was designed to prevent European powers recolonizing Mexico, Columbia, Argentina, Brazil. France invaded Mexico in 1828 on the pretext of collecting debts of 600,000 pesos (3 million francs) 15 years following the Annual Message to Congress of president James Monroe, in 1838 and again in 1867 on the same pretext. In 1867 the US after the Civil War placed an army in Texas to get the French to withdraw. The Monroe Doctrine is stated in the Annual Message to Congress of president James Madison in 1823. The US and Britain were concerned that the European colonial powers would attempt to recolonize Spain's former colonies that had become independent nations. Former presidents Madison and Jefferson agreed. John Quincy Adams sought to make this an American statement. The idea of preserving freedom in Latin America is enshrined in this document and the original document supported Greek Independence from Turkey, and was critical of France's invasion of Spain. A method employed by European powers to recolonize in the Western Hemisphere was to set an enormous sum of debt due as a pretext for invasion. Britain, Germany and Italy imposed a naval blockade of Venezuela in 1902-1903 on this pretext. The remaining colonies of Spain were in Cuba and the Philippines which were transferred to US after the Spanish American war. The US did not seek intervention for 3 years after the Spanish under Gen. Weyler pursued a policy of "reconcentration areas" for the Cuban population to suppress an independence movement causing great suffering in Cuba. On Feb 15 mines or torpedo sank the US ship the USS Maine in Havana Harbor with death of 266 sailors. Under president McKinley the US with Commodore Dewey took Manila Bay in the Philippines and Havana and Santiago in Cuba. The Treaty of Paris in 1898 giving US authority over Cuba and the Philippines, and Puerto Rico, was passed with only one vote in the Senate showing how much the issue was debated in the US. The foresight of Teddy Roosevelt and Cabot Lodge for a base in the Pacific at Manila Bay, and Hawaii, can be seen in how the US first resisted European colonization in China under president Wilson in 1913-1921, and fought Japanese colonization in China under Gen. Stilwell and Gen MacArthur in the FDR years 1932-44.     ...

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The WP's Adam Taylor gives readers glimpses of Ukraine's and Crimea's history. The Crimea was at various times part of the Greek and Roman Empires as Taurica, the Mongols, the Khanate since 1400, and part of the Russian Empire since 1783. About 60% of the population is Russian in the Crimea, 12% Tartars. Under the Soviet Union it was first the Crimean Autonomous Socialist Republic till 1945 and then Crimean Oblast, an administrative region of Russia. It was made part of Ukraine by Russian premier Krushchev in 1954, Krushchev himself being a Russian who came up through the Ukrainian Communist party. In Dec. 1991 a referendum was held in Ukraine, 54% of Crimean voters favored independence from Russia. Crimea remained part of Ukraine with autonomy including its own constitution, and legislature. A 1997 treaty allowed Russia to base its Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea.