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The National Action Party (PAN) wins elections for governor in 3 states, including Veracruz. Voter dissatisfaction with the ruling PRI party and the administration of president Pena Nieto is putting the PAN in a better position to contest the presidential elections in 2018. The administration of Pena Nieto came in with high expectations but has suffered with low growth, and the investigation into the murder of 43 college students in Guerrero state which showed lack of rule of law in Mexico. Governance, corruption and the rule of law are major issues today in Mexico, and this favors the PAN in contrast to the PRI. The poor performance of some governors was also an issue in the elections.

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Brexit and Scotland's referendum both have similar consequences economically for Britain and Scotland. This hurts both countries in unwinding relationships built over many years, unwinding 44 year membership for Britain, and 310 year union for Scotland. Britain exports to EU are 45% of total exports, and for Scotland the number is 63% for exports to the rest of the UK.  Scots benefit about 1200 British pounds more for average citizen than a average citizen of UK, and pay 400 pounds less to the government. Scotland would start with a 90% debt to GDP ratio if it takes a proportionate share of UK government debt from the beginning of independence. Fidler correctly points out the economic risks to Britain and Scotland which are being ignored or not fully taken into account by politicians.

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According to Bank of America $362 billion of of subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgages, mostly 2-28 loans which adjust after 2 years, will reset in 2008. And in 2008 another $152 billion of other loans such as jumbo mortgages of more than $417,000 and Alt-A loans (category between prime and subprime) also will reset. And all this is happening with falling prices which means less or no equity in the home and little chance of refinancing or selling the home. Upto now the foreclosures had been due not as muchdue to resets as to weak underwriting and falling home prices. Whats ahead is the crest of the reset wave. From the 1.35 million homes in foreclosure this year next years 2008 should see 1.44 million foreclosures according to the Morgage Bankers Association. According to Bear Stearns this will add about 4 months to the supply of existing homes and worsen the price situation. This itself plus the some 20% lower price of foreclosed homes compared to comparable homes in a neighborhood drives the prices down further and creates a vicious cycle. Fed's Ben Beranke sees this affecting the general economy in 2008....

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In the July 22nd Turkish election the Justice and Development party (AK) made big gains in Kurdish areas of Turkey at the expense of the Kurdish party DTP and in local elections next March the AK may win Diyarbakir Kurds unofficial capital in Turkey. Istanbul has 2 million Kurds and is by far the largest Kurdish city. And more ethnic Turks than Turkish Kurds do business in Northern Iraq. Its interesting that the Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan pointed to all these facts in his remarks to questions posed at the national Press Club in November 2007 expressing surprise that ths Kurds were responding in the way they were considering his party;'s strong ties with Turkish Kurds. Thus the Kurdish Turkish situation is complex and changing rapidly and from the oil price standpoint Erdogan described the Turkish objective as a operation and not an intent to invade Northern Iraq. These very changes in one of the key areas of the Islamic world point to a rapidly changing world where its not possible to draw conclusions without visiting the issue very carefully and looking for deeper insights beyond superficial observations. zstandpoint Turkey may not be ...

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Foreign institutional investors responding to negative sentiment for emerging markets in general took out $2.6 billion from India in August 2015. Yet average allocations to India for emerging market funds have increased to about 10.7% in July 2015, because India looks much better than other emerging markets. By comparison China is at 20.25%.

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The Labour Party manifesto written at the Labour Conference will include integrating all private schools into the state sector "to end hierarchy, elitism and selection in education." Labour's Annual Conference is endorsing this idea. In its first budget Labour would withdraw charitable status, as well as subsidies and tax privileges from private schools, forcing "the endowments, investments and properties held by private schools" to be "distributed democratically and fairly across the country's educational institutions." University quotas for private school students would be capped at 7%. Currently at elite institutions this is between 30 to 40%. Laura Parker, Momentum's National Coordinator says- "This is a huge step forward in dismantling the privilege of atiny Eton educated elite that is running the country into the ground." There is a mood in Britain that the boys club of Cameron, Gove, Johnson and others in a small group of people around Cameron has led to the situation in Britain today. Cameron is considered today as one of the most unpopular prime ministers in British history. Calling the referendum for Brexit by Cameron is seen as an action pursued for narrow political self interest.The very narrow education and outlook, and limited abilities of this group are seen as a contrast to the people who governed Britain in earlier decades. ...

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As the Brexit deal goes to a vote in Britain's parliament in January 2019, most experts expect an historic defeat. This report says the best prime minister Theresa May can do is to limit the size of the defeat in parliament, so that there is no political meltdown. Mr. May is trying to persuafe members of parliament to vote for her plan to avoid a disorderly exit from the EUropean Union on March 29, the last date for negotiations unless the date is extended. She is trying to show there is more support for her plan than no-deal Brexit, and for a second referendum. Yet members of parliament are moving to be decisive in voting against no-deal Brexit, seen as harmful to the British economy. The EUropean Union leaders meanwhile say a strong vote defeating May's plan would mean no more meaningful negotiations. A vote of more than 100 votes defeating the plan would be the first such vote since 1924. Labor MP's are gearing up for the vote, as are Tory members who dislike the "backstop" that is part of May's plan for Brexit- which would continue a free border as before between the two parts of Ireland. One Labor MP says she plans to delay her cesarean section for a baby by 2 days against medical advice just so she can personally vote in parliament. ...

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Sarah Wagenknecht is combining socialist credentials with support for workers and unions with a platform opposing migration. She is polling 10-20 percent and is second to AfD right wing party inthe polls in three German states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. Nationally she is polling 9 percent. Not that this is new.It is new only in Germany with CDU/CSU and Socail Democrats, Greens, Free Democrats dominating with right wing anti migration position taken by AfD. Mette Frederiksen in Denmark the Danish prime minister has long felt that migrations hurts working class families and distracts from the main issues facing workers. On this platform she has won elections in Denmark. Scandinavia is moving in this direction taking up working class issues, policies that favor unions and workers, support child care and families, yet opposing migration, but not with extremist right wing ideologies not compatible with democracy. This is a more effective and sensible path for Europe as there are more urgent issues, climate change, child care and families, wages and incomes, cost of living action, why the need to distract the attention, the vital attention needed to these overwhelmingly important tasks. Here it is common sense that should prevail- by keeping migrants out of this, no more distraction from the tasks at hand for the Nations of Europe, and keeping borders safe. ...

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Key recommendations of a parliamentary inquiry in France into the Paris terrorist attacks are- the creation of a new intelligence agency, pulling together three elite forces GIGN, Raid, and BRI, more security measures for airports, and improvements to the judicial and prison system where potential terrorists are further radicalized. The extensive investigation concluded that France was not prepared for the attacks.

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Opinion polls in France show a drop of 20 points in popularity for president Hollande after just 6 months in office, from 60% to 40%. Hollande is seen in France as slow to make decisions compared to his predecessor Sarkozy. Hollande has suffered in popularity over the decision to increase value added taxes to give tax rebates of $26 billion to companies hiring new workers starting in 2014. The opinion to the left is that this hurts the working class which has to pay more in taxes. Jean-Luc Melenchon of the Leftist Front, which asked voters to vote for Hollande, went so far as to cal the program "a shame." And the Greens with two ministers in the government have discussed withdrawing from the government. The conservative supporters of Sarkozy question the need to wait till 2014 considering the 10% unemployment and closing factories. They also cite the $39 billion figure recommended for payroll tax cuts, not tax rebates, by the commission setup by Hollande to look at ways to revive the economy. Centrist parties say the bloated government which takes up half of the economy is a cause of the problems. Hollande's Socialist supporters question the wisdom of moving this quickly to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2013, as required by committments to the EU, especially now that the downturn is seen by the EU, the IMF and the Bank of France as prolonged....

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Japan's budgetary discipline will take the form of keeping annual expenditures (excluding debt servicing) constant at 71 trillion yen ($819 billion) for the coming three years. This is around three fourths of the national budget. To do this the Democratic party is asking cabinet ministers to set priorities, reduce waste, and send money into the party's emphasized growth strategy areas.

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Alexei Kudrin on the potential for a deep economic and political crisis in Russia if Greece exits the eurozone and Europe goes into a recession.

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Singer and Kanter provide a detailed account of Margarethe Vestager, her personal upbringing with two parents who were ministers of the Church of Denmark, her studies for a Masters degree in Economics at the University of Copenhagen, serving in the Danish Parliament, experience as Economy minister, that have given her a sense of quiet confidence that is rare in European politicians. A Danish talk show host sees her as quite unemotional. When approached about this as a kind of toughness Vestager is taken aback, saying that she is just doing her job, and takes her responsibility to ensure competition is fair and open in the interests of consumers quite seriously. She has her lighter moments with knitting elephants, and is not hesitant to post a picture of the talk show host napping in a park in Denmark on her social media site. She comes across as a politician who is not so serious as to lose sight of enjoying her work, as she rises early and takes the morning jog to the IMF headquarters in Washington D.C. She says all the late night meetings her parents had as ministers with people going through difficult times from all parts of society gave her a sense of how an informed society should function....