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Mr Mussa's forecast at the peterson Institute of Intenational Economics shows world economic growth moderating from 4.75% this year to 4.25% in 2008 and 5.25% in 2006 with continued global economic expansion. The IMF is expected to forecast USA economic growth slowing to 1.9% in 2008 from 2.8% in an earlier forecast. The IMF global forecast of 4.8% for 2008 is in line with Mr. Mussa's estimate. The IMF trimmed eurozone growth to 2.1% in 2008 from 2.5% . One reason given for the resilience in USA growth is the boost to US exports from the weakening dollar and the increase in worldwide demand, so by these estimates the housing crisis will be offset by general global economic growth and factors such as exports and its impact will be softened. Also eurozone growth will continue especially Germany, France and eastern europe whereas Britain and Spain may see some fallout from housing bubbles. Overall growth in India, China, Middle Eastern countries, and other parts of the world, including Germany, and export led growth in the USA will keep the global economy in decent shape. general increase in exports as world demand contimues to grow....

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The US vaccination drive appears to be stalling when it comes to getting younger people vaccinated. On a recent day 1.13 million persons were vaccinated. About 150 million Americans are fully vaccinated or about 47% of the population. About 53% of the population have one dose. This still leaves the rest of the population close to one half unvaccinated as the US is opening up fully and removing the social distancing and mask mandates that existed before. The problem is that the coronavirus delta variant is about twice as transmissible than the original coronavirus of March 2020. Vaccination is uneven across the US. Large parts of the southern states and the western states lag behind. In these areas as well as areas with large urban concentrations of population, the densely populated cities where social distancing and mask mandates are being lifted as if the coronavirus crisis is over, are at risk of seeing a more powerful virus spread quickly before gene sequencing catches up with new variants- making the response lag behind in terms of weeks. That lag in response could lead to another wave in the US. Consider also that tourism is opening up in Europe with removal of mask mandates, that gene sequencing to track variants is tiny in even countries such as Italy and France. A WSJ report on June 22 shows gene sequencing to track variants at 1% of positive tests in Italy, and virologists in Italy saying they feel as if they are flying blind. This report in the Washington Post says surveys show as many as one third of Americans have no immediate plans to get vaccinated. This is showing up in the low numbers for the vaccination drive, of around 1 million a day at this time in June 2021. In April this was 3 million vaccine doses adminstered on a single day on average. India where the new delta variant has had the most serious impact has stepped up its response with the federal government taking complete responsibility for vaccine supplies and vaccination drives. It is now vaccinating aggressively in the range of 6 million to 8 million doses a day during the last 7 days with a plan to ensure enough vaccine supplies for 1.2 billion people to get vaccinated by December 31.  The European Union and the US have  vaccinated just over 50% of their population for a variant that is more than twice as transmissible than the original virus. This leaves the unvaccinated at real risk because all the social distancing and mask mandates that existed earlier are being removed- in the US, in France, in Italy, and other countries. Soccer stadiums are filling up in Europe, the kind of sports events that later hit Bergamo, Italy, in March 2020. Summer tourism is back in Portugal and Greece. The best intentions will not be enough. Are mask and social distancing protocols being lifted too quickly especially in tourist locations reminiscent of last summer in Europe and elsewhere. Germany and Britain are holding on to them a bit longer. Will this be enough to tackle a new variant. ...

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How German political leaders view the Euro currency and the European Union. German history and the need for fiscal discipline and the European Union. The constant between Chancellors Adenauer, Kohl and Merkel- a sense of European unity as part of the fabric of the new Germany. A desire to find a way through the sovereign debt crisis of 2010-2012, by introducing fiscal discipline into the structural framework and preserving the hard won gains for the Euro currency and the European Union.

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The pact of competitiveness is designed to bring a closer integration of the eurozone. It includes proposals for increasing the retirement age to 67, ending indexation of wages to inflation, and involvement of other eurozone countries in controlling out of control deficits in some countries. Germany sees this as necessary to convince the German public that financial responsibility is being exercized by countries in budget crises that get help from Germany. This may buy time but it does not come to terms with the reality of Greece being insolvent already, which may be true also for Ireland and Portugal. Some experts see the need for debt restructuring, and the need to start early, especially if Germany is unwilling to make large transfers to these countries.

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Ignazio Angeloni heads the financial supervisory authority setup by EU leaders in 2013 inside the European Central Bank. The NYT's Danny Hakim's interview with Angeloni on the task facing Angeloni and the ECB as it takes on supervision of all EU banks.

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Krugman is critical of ECB president Trichet's decision to raise interest rates in 2010, because of the way it affects Spain, Italy, and Portugal. Increase in interest rates by the ECB affect the entire eurozone and this means, he points out, that inflation in Germany would be extremely low -about 1% for the next five years- and the result being that inflation would be much lower in debtor countries like Spain. A decrease in interest rates with inflation at 3-4 % in Germany would be better for the debtor countries (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland) as this would enable them to cut prices and costs relative to Germany and other creditor countries. The first step taken by the new ECB president, Mario Draghi, was a small increase in interest rates. Krugman asks if the private demand is affected negatively by the end of a debt financed boom in the debtor countries, and austerity programs reduce any growth in the public sector, then where are the new jobs supposed to come from? A policy that reduces the prices of the products of debtor countries relative to creditor countries like Germany- so that exports can generate necessary growth- is needed says Krugman. ...

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Lawrence Katz, Harvard labor economist, talks to Friedman about the jobs crisis in the U.S.. Katz identifies three jobs crises occurring at the same time today. One is the drop in the demand for goods and services that resulted from the longer term effects of the financial crisis of 2008, with rising foreclosures, weak housing markets, bad debt on the balance sheets of banks, and interest rates at close to zero reducing the scope of action by the Federal Reserve bank. The second, is the widespread long term unemployment with workers dropping out of the labor market. The third, is the nature of new factories and hiring. Work in new factories is done through increased automation, information technology and fewer workers. As a result job creation is a fraction of what it was in the past. Not mentioned here is the shrinking of the public sector under the strain of budget deficits for local, state and federal government. This leads to the question of how America will create jobs in the future. Katz believes the answer is creating more "hubs," networked urban areas like Austin, Silicon Valley, and Raleigh-Durham, by bringing together universities, high-tech manufacturers, software providers, and startup companies, to cooperate in creating new products that enhance people's lives worldwide. This has to be done by the private sector and government working together to build the infrastructure and make the investments in education, training of workers, and equipment for new job creation....

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The story is an encouraging one as the president and bipartisan Congressmen persevered with courage and patience to invest in America. The story is told by Biden adviser Gene Sperling in the WSJ today Feb 16, 2024, and is on this page. The US federal Budget deficit rises to 6.1%  in 2025 from 5.6% in 2024, then slows to 5.2% in 2027 and 2028, going back to 6.1% in 2034. Because these projections depend on assumptions inflation, interest rates, wages, which may be different in actual numbers in future years the broad guage one can get is that the extra surge in investment of five tenths or six tenths of a percentage point of GDP help the US make the investments in an aging or crumbling infrastructure and in manufacturing, better technologies, not replaced since the 1950's or 1970's, is needed for economic growth and better living conditions for the American people. It is this investment that in trillions of dollars of spending under president Biden that has generated growth of 3.1% in the last 2 years compared to the recession in Germany, UK, France and otehr European countries. UK is the latest to fall into recession this month. Sluggish growth can also be seen in China with a bloated construction center hindering growth. The US is in abetter position after the pandemic than any other country with the exception of India. ...

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Germany's new president Steinmeier vigorously defends democracy and the European Union, in his first major speech after accepting the post of president. He calls for "push back together" against the foes of democracy. Passion and commitment marked the style of president Gauck, says Furstenau of DW.com, and this is true also for Steinmeier. Both also share personal conviction matched with personal experience, Gauck as a pastor in the former GDR looking for alternatives as the GDR crumbled, and Steinmeier is respected for his exceptional work in diplomacy for Germany. Both bring a striaghtforward manner but tremendous sincerity, so that the message is heard with respect from all parts of Germany. Furstenau calls him a German and European patriot. In Gauck's last speech he called for affirming Germany in the EU- "although voices may praise the fool's gold of long outdated nationalism, we will remain Germans- as Europeans, although the uncertainty of our times may be alarming, we will not flee from our responsibility." Steinmeier echoes the same message, backed up with personal conviction and long experience in serving Germany. Gauck called for a "vigilant democracy" that maintains the basic conditions for peace and dialogue, and also shows the willingness to defend the republic and the Basic Law, because " we do not want our country or other European member states to become the playthings of actors who are pursuing entirely different interests." In his acceptance speech Steinmeier called for courage, after Gauck had laid down the theme of Germans "not overlooking the potential within us.... trusting in our own strength and staying calm and composed."   ...

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The euro approaches parity with the U.S. dollar by November 2016, with the surge in the dollar following the U.S. presidential election of 2016. The euro closed at $1.058 on Nov 17, 2016. It was down 4% following the election. The euro was down in early 2015. This time it is chiefly down against the dollar. This time both monetary and fiscal policy is expected to diverge with the EU, and inflation expectations are up in the U.S. Analysts expect parity to be reached in 2017.